Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.

Originally Posted by tim teufel

yanks bout to offer jeter 3 years for 45 
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Bidding against themselves.
15 M per.
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The Diamondbacks turned the hot stove upside down this week with word that they'd consider trading Justin Upton for the right deal, and I have since spoken with several senior executives from other clubs who indicated that the price is probably high but he is indeed available.

Upton will start 2011 as a 23-year-old and is signed to a deal that owes him $49.5 million for the next five years, with a limited no-trade clause that includes four teams. He was a deserving All-Star in 2009, before tiring badly in September, but lost some power in 2010 and seemed to catch the swing-and-miss malaise that infected the entire Arizona roster (although he improved his walk rate over 2009). He's an above-average defender in right field with a strong arm, and I think it's possible he could return to center field if he's traded, since he was moved to right to accommodate Chris Young and not through any failing of his own.

So why would Arizona GM Kevin Towers want to deal a franchise player who's locked up to a reasonable deal? Let's consider some factors:

1. He doubts Upton's on-field potential. This seems unlikely, as Towers is a former scout who values tools and Upton is a hardware store who was a No. 1 overall pick. He also posted a .388 on-base average in his age-21 season (2009). In the last 50 years, the only other players who've posted a .350/.500 OBP/SLG line at 21 or younger, as Upton did that year, are Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr. and Cesar Cedeno. Rodriguez even followed up that year with a more severe dropoff than Upton saw in 2010. There are no guarantees, even with players of Upton's talent, but you don't walk away from that kind of skill set and performance cavalierly.

2. He doubts Upton's makeup. Most of the bad makeup reports about the younger Upton appear to stem from his brother's reputation, although I know there were some concerns about Justin's responsiveness to coaching in the spring of 2009, when he showed up with an altered swing that he didn't correct until a week into the season. He's not Milton Bradley, though, and if he's Gary Sheffield, well, that one worked out OK.

3. He questions Upton's ability to stay healthy. Upton has had problems with his left shoulder in each of the last two years, nothing major but perhaps enough to convince Towers and his staff that there's an underlying issue. I imagine any potential trade partner would want to do extra due diligence on Upton for that reason.

4. He wants to win in 2011 and can't do it without trading Upton. In other words, Towers, who is on a two-year contract, figures he can trade the long-term potential of Upton for players with shorter-time horizons (fewer years to free agency for more guaranteed immediate performance). Given how available Upton appears to be, this seems like it must be at least part of the motivation, as there is no good long-term rationale (that we know of as outsiders) for trading Upton when he has yet to reach his peak and is signed to a reasonable deal that will be cheap if he hits his ceiling.

I imagine it's a lot of No. 4, given Towers' short window and public statements about making the team competitive in 2011, and some of Nos. 1 or 3, too. But even if he is skeptical about Upton, other GMs won't be. Players of Upton's talent rarely come on the market before free agency, at which point many clubs are priced out, and a trade now represents a rare opportunity for a team to acquire a potential star early in his ascent.

Based on those conversations with rival executives, I think Towers will ask for at least two players with major league experience, who can help the Diamondbacks in 2011, plus two others from the other team's farm system. It's a high price, but if you believe, as I do, that Upton will be one of the best players in the game by the time he's 26 or 27, it's justified.
[h3]Around the league[/h3]
• MLB appears headed for a further devaluation of the regular season and its own history by expanding the playoffs to include two more teams, which will be as blatant a money-grab as you'll see short of franchise expansion. I look forward to the Tigers and Rangers hosting American League Division Series games on Thanksgiving in a few years.

• The Astros picked up Clint Barmes, who can play some defense but is an atrocious hitter, in exchange for erratic but hard-throwing Felipe Paulino. I could see Paulino having some success in a relief role, although that lefties torch him -- he's faced 399 left-handed batters in his major league career and 161 (over 40 percent) have reached base -- limits his value ... but I'd take him over Barmes eight days a week.

• I've seen this mentioned on Twitter, on Fangraphs and in the next item, but it bears repeating: Felix Hernandez' victory in the Cy Young voting isn't a victory for new statistics but for a better philosophy. Hernandez led the AL in such decidedly pedestrian statistics as ERA and innings pitched and was second in strikeouts, traditionally a recipe not just for votes but for a lot of wins, if you're not relying on the 1899 Cleveland Spiders' offense for support. King Felix' coronation is more a recognition that the old way of identifying pitcher quality through won-lost records first and maybe ERA second is dumb and that we need to think about what a pitcher can control and what he can't. There's no single stat that put Hernandez over the top, nor is there a single stat that beats all others for accurately measuring pitcher performance. But voters thought about this year's AL Cy candidates differently than they did five years ago, and that is good news for serious fans of the game.

• Joe Posnanski chimes in that the win isn't really dead. I picture the win slung over ERA's shoulder, groaning, "I'm not dead." I'd be glad to give ERA a little help.

• By the way, one last thought on yesterday's AL Cy Young announcement: Did you know that "oldfangled" is a word? I had no idea until I wrote this article, but I'm definitely going to start referring to useless accounting statistics like pitcher wins, saves and RBI as "oldfangled."

• The Asian Games are going on right now, with South Korea facing Taiwan in the baseball final on Friday. If the Koreans win, Shin-Soo Choo, the lone major league player on the team, will earn an exemption from military service that might otherwise have interrupted his major league career. (Ed's Note: South Korea has won.)

• Michael Schmidt of the New York Times reported on a disturbing (to me, at least) trend of investors in "Latin American baseball futures" -- in effect, funding trainers and academies in the Dominican Republic who identify players and take as much as half of their signing bonuses if and when they turn pro. It's disturbing because it's totally unregulated and has significant potential to defraud investors and to transfer money to those wealthy investors that would normally have gone to the players' families.

• The Yankees signed the latest Dominican mystery man, Jose Rafael DePaula, according to SI's Melissa Segura.He's touched 96 mph in the past and has an upper-70s curveball with good arm speed on his changeup, according to scouts who've seen him. He failed an age investigation, eventually admitting he's 19 and had used a false name previously, but other than that he's a wonderful guy.

• Great stuff on a great blog, as Beyond the Box Score looks at pitchers getting wide zones from umpires.

• Sabernomics blogger -- and econ professor -- J.C. Bradbury argues for Albert Pujols as baseball's first $40 million man. I don't see it, myself. Pujols will play at 31 years old in 2011 and will likely decline at least somewhat over the course of a six- or seven-year contract, and getting him to $40 million of value would require aggressive salary inflation. The Cardinals are not the Yankees, and their front office is too business-savvy to take on that kind of expensive risk.

• In other sports-related news: I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the series of articles I wrote this week for mental_floss on board games, including yesterday's piece on the history of the growing cult favorite Settlers of Catan, which remains among our favorites even as our collection of "German-style" board games has grown.

The Atlanta Braves made the first big strike of the offseason Tuesday, acquiring (some would say stealing) second baseman Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins for infielder Omar Infante and relief pitcher Mike Dunn. Uggla will be one of the biggest names to switch teams this offseason, a big enough name that even the notoriously penny-pinching Marlins were willing to offer him a four-year, $48 million contract. But Uggla's camp turned down the offer, leading to his trade to Atlanta. The surprising thing wasn't that he was traded but how little the Marlins got in return -- Infante is a good player but, like Uggla, will be a free agent a year from now and a definite downgrade.

So, how will Uggla fare in Atlanta? Expectations will be high with him coming off career highs in homers (33), RBIs (105) and batting average (.287), and the Braves have good reason to hope that he will become the team's first second baseman to hit 30 home runs since Davey Johnson hit 43 in 1973.

The first thing to look at is the difference in parks. Although Sun Life Stadium (or whatever name the oft-changed stadium goes by when you read this) has a reputation of being a pitcher's park, that really hasn't held true in recent years. During the 1990s, it was a pretty solid pitcher's park on a regular basis, but park factors are measured relative to the rest of the league.

With the exception of Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, most of the newer parks have tended to be pitcher-friendly, which makes Sun Life more a hitter's park by default relative to the rest of the NL. Nobody's going to confuse the park with Coors or Chase, but during the past four years, the Marlins and their opponents have scored a modest 2 percent more runs in Marlins home games than on the road. Sun Life still suppresses home runs by about 10 percent. However, even for a 30-homer hitter, a 10 percent increase in homers is only an extra homer or two. (Remember, half the games are played on the road.)

Going from Florida to Atlanta, Uggla should pick up a couple of homers and lose a few singles and doubles. He's also likely to lose some walks, as Sun Life has had consistently high walk (and strikeout) factors in its history.

For the bottom line, ZiPS projects Uggla to hit .259/.346/.469 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 29 homers and 87 RBIs. The lower homer total is mainly because Uggla has been extremely durable, not something you want to count on too much from an over-30 middle infielder -- it's always good to lower expectations into the 145- to 150-game range. Uggla still has some upside left, especially on the homer side -- ZiPS gives him a realistic shot (10 percent) at hitting the 40-homer mark for the first time and even a 1-in-70 shot to hit 50 homers. Even if Uggla hits only 29 homers, the Braves will be extremely satisfied.

There is at least some reason for optimism on the home-field front. Uggla has hit well in Turner Field; his 12 home runs there are the most for him in any road park. You want to be careful not to get too excited about a very small slice of statistics (199 plate appearances), but the Braves have to feel a bit more comfortable when their big acquisition has hit .354/.399/.652 at their field.

Another factor that could pay off for the Braves is that Uggla's right-handed bat fills a void in the lineup. The team has been short on lefty-killers for a while, outside of Matt Diaz, and the team as a whole had an OPS 30 points worse against left-handers than against righties. Troy Glaus was brought in for that purpose but showed that he was clearly on the downside of his career. Uggla's not a classic lefty-crusher, but he hits for enough power against them to help keep lefties like Johan Santana and Cole Hamels honest. Santana, in particular, has been tough on the Braves (a 2.28 ERA in 12 starts against Atlanta), and it's definitely nice to have that extra righty slugger in the event that the Sandy Alderson-fueled Mets show more life in 2011.

In the long term, there are questions about Uggla. He's consistently below-average defensively at second, and if the Braves give him an extension, they likely will pay for his declining years. (Most infielders don't age as well as Jeff Kent.) However, for 2011, Uggla's a great addition for the Braves, and if GM Frank Wren keeps adding star players without giving up any parts of the future, the Philadelphia Phillies should start to sweat.

[h3]Duke's market[/h3]
12:22PM ET

[h5]Zach Duke | Pirates[/h5]


Left-hander Zach Duke was designated for assignment Friday by the Pittsburgh Pirates after attempts to negotiate a reduced-salary contract and trade the 27-year-old failed.

It's easy to see why the Pirates let Duke go, considering their financial state -- Duke was due a raise through arbitration after making $4.3 million next season and could have earned as much a $6 million in 2011.

But Duke should find work this winter without issue, despite the poor win-loss record and a ballooned ERA. By measures of most advanced statistics, Duke has pitched much better than the 5.72 ERA he posted in 2010, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com pointed out via Twitter.

Stephen Goff of the Houston Chronicle wrote Friday that Duke fits the profile of the No. 4 or 5 starter the Houston Astros are seeking this winter.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Colletti eyeing relief market?[/h3]
12:12PM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]


The Los Angeles Dodgers' relief corps struggled at times last season, particularly the middle relief and closer Jonathan Broxton. Ned Colletti would like to add to the unit, tweets Jim Bowden, but Broxton will remain the club's stopper.

Depending on how much money the Dodgers have to spend -- it seemed as if maybe they'd have very little due to the divorce proceedings but since the season ended they have signed Ted Lilly and Kiroki Kuroda to contracts worth $45 million in total -- Colletti could eye setup type arms such as Jason Frasor, Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour. But if Joaquin Benoit, at 33 and a health risk, is getting three years at more than $5 million per season, the Dodgers may be better off checking on the likes of Matt Guerrier, and calling Seattle about the availability of either David Aardsma or Brandon League.

If Colletti would like to free up left-hander Hon-Chi Kuo to face key lefty bats in the 7th or 8th inning, perhaps adding a second left-hander to the bullpen makes sense. George Sherrill struggled in 2010 and is likely to be non-tendered next month, but Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes and Pedro Feliciano are among the free agent southpaws.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Rangers ink Loux[/h3]
11:57AM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers[/h5]


The Texas Rangers have signed right-hander Barret Loux, reports the Dallas Morning News, after less than three months of free agency. Loux, a first-round pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks this past June, failed a physical nullifying a $2 million agreement. Major League Baseball ruled Lou a free agent in September.

Loux is considered a legitimate power arm, though his future role is in question. The biggest concern, however, is the health of his throwing arm. The Rangers invested just $312,000 on him, but there is a chance he'll need surgery to repair damage in his shoulder.

It may be simply a shot in the dark, and for so little money in the baseball world, perhaps the risk pays off for the Rangers in the form of a power reliever.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Latest on Upton[/h3]
11:51AM ET

[h5]Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | Interested: Braves?, Cardinals?, Yankees?, Red Sox?[/h5]


General managers concluded their meetings Thursday in Orlando, where the buzz through the hotel lobby centered on the availability of Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports the Diamondbacks were approached by as many as 16 teams about Upton and five showed a strong inclination to push talks further along. The Yankees were not among the teams showing interest.

Ken Rosenthal tweets Thursday morning that the Seattle Mariners have not ruled out a run at Upton and mentions that GM Jack Zduriencik could build a package around right-hander Michael Pineda, and FoxSports.com's Jon Morosi mentions that the addition of Rajai Davis by the Toronto Blue Jays could free up Travis Snider to be included in a package for Upton.

The Blue Jays could include arms such as Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart to catch the attention of D-backs GM Kevin Towers.

The problem for Seattle, however, is that without mortgaging off too much of their future they lack the inventory of young talent it appears it will take to land Upton. They are counting on Dustin Ackley to take over at second base as early as 2011 and don't have as much depth in their system as do the Boston Red Sox and other clubs, including the Toronto Blue Jays, whom Rosenthal tweets was the mystery team previously mentioned.

At the very least, we know that Towers is willing to listen, even if he might be asking for a king's ransom.

Jon Heyman of SI.com cites an AL executive who says what the D-backs are asking for Upton "is ridiculous."

Meanwhile, Sean McAdam of Comcast Sports Net writes Wednesday evening that Boston's interest in Justin Upton is legitimate, but unless the Diamondbacks come down off their initial asking price, it's highly unlikely a deal will occur.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic said on 710 ESPN in Seattle that he believes Towers will have to be completely blown away and sure that he's won the trade to consider pulling the trigger on a deal to send Upton outof Phoenix.

Ken Rosenthal tweeted Friday that the four teams on Upton's no-trade list are the Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics.

Expect the Upton speculation to continue into next month's winter meetings in Florida.

- Doug Mittler

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[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Can Upton be dealt?
"The Diamondbacks turned the hot stove upside down this week with word that they'd consider Upton for the right deal, and I have since spoken with several senior executives from other clubs who indicated that the price is probably high but he is indeed available. He's an above-average defender in right field with a strong arm, and I think it's possible he could return to center field if he's traded, since he was moved to right to accommodate Chris Young and not through any failing of his own."

http://[h3]Switching gears in Detroit?[/h3]
11:45AM ET

[h5]Joel Zumaya | Tigers[/h5]


The Detroit Tigers just handed right-hander Joaquin Benoit a three-year deal worth $16.5 million guaranteed in attempts to shore up their bullpen, and that may be the final move they make on the relief pitching front.

The club adds Benoit to a group that includes closer Jose Valverde, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth and Joel Zumaya, whom the club believes will be 100 percent healthy once spring training starts in February.

The Tigers are expected to make competitive offers to catcher Victor Martinez and outfielder Carl Crawford, however, so their offseason antics have likely just begun.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Cubs checking SP market[/h3]
11:40AM ET

[h5]Chicago Cubs[/h5]


UPDATE: The Chicago Sun-Times reported earlier this week that the Cubs met with the agents for Javier Vazquez, Aaron Harang and Vicente Padilla, so it appears as if the Cubs may see some value in spending a little money on their rotation this winter, as none of the above three are likely to come super cheap, and perhaps would require multi-year pacts.

----

By all accounts, the Chicago Cubs are not planning on bidding for Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth this winter, but could be players for second-tier starting pitchers such as Kevin Millwood, as Gordon Wittenmyer wrote Sunday.

Wittenmyer also mentions Jake Westbrook and Javier Vazquez as potential targets, and right-hander Jeremy Bonderman could be among those considered as well.

Westbrook is already drawing strong interest from the Cardinals and it's unclear what Vazquez is thinking these days after struggling in New York twice and often using his no-trade clause to avoid being dealt to clubs away from the east coast.

Jon Garland could be of some interest to the Cubs as well, but just like every other potential personnel move, the Cubs' search for starting pitching will come down to finances.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Shortstop trade options[/h3]
11:35AM ET

[h5]Shortstop Trade Options[/h5]


Every winter there are clubs looking for shortstop help, and sometimes it doesn't end there. The Detroit Tigers, for example, had to go get one at the trade deadline this past summer. But finding one in free agency is not easy and this winter, as the best of the best include an aging Edgar Renteria, Cesar Izturis, and Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who comes with the inherent risk of cultural transition as well as the cost involved to win the bidding on top of the salary. So trading for a shortstop might be the best option, and there are options.

Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro are all trade-available, with the Baltimore Orioles having had talks with the Twins and Rays already. The Orioles are also one club expected to bid on Nishioka.

Scutaro, because of the presence of Jed Lowrie and prospect Jose Iglesias, is viewed as somewhat expendable while the Rays can simply plug in Reid Brignac and be just fine. The Twins, however, don't have a fallback option outside Trevor Plouffe, and may also be interested in the Japanese batting champ.

All three veterans will be free agents following 2011, which means clubs would be trading for just one season of each player, but there's certainly going to be interest.

Said interest may pick up after the Nishioka situation is resolved, which could come some time next week. The Giants, Cardinals, Padres and Mariners could show interest in any of the three established big leaguers, and if the Mets make Jose Reyes available, the flood gates may open in Queens.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could DeJesus be an option in L.A.?[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]


If the season started today, the Los Angeles Dodgers would likely start Jamey Carroll at second base, or would need to tender Ryan Theriot. But The club may have some options in the minors in the form of Ivan Dejesus, Jr. and perhaps Chin-Lung Hu.

Both player excel defensively, though Hu has had a chance in the big leagues and hit just .181. DeJesus, coming off a serious leg injury in 2009, hit .296 in his return and could be big-league ready at the plate now, too, writes ESPNLosAngeles.com's Tony Jackson.

DeJesus, a natural shortstop, does lack power, however, but if he can make contact consistently he may be able to hit for enough average to combine with his speed and defense to be an adequate option for GM Ned Colletti as early as Opening Day 2011.

Hu is 26 already and may be best suited as a reserve, but with such options in place, second base may be a spot where the Dodgers don't feel a great need to spend money this winter.

Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez and Juan Uribe could be among those considered if Colletti heads to free agency for answers, and the club has been connected to Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who was posted recently.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Cubs first base options[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Chicago Cubs[/h5]


The Chicago Cubs traded Derrek Lee to the Atlanta Braves last summer, officially starting their search for Lee's successor. The free agent market boasts several potential targets, including Lee, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena. But Bruce Levine, thinking a little outside the box, has another idea.

Levine mentions Texas Rangers first baseman Chris Davis as an option. Davis lost his starting job to Mitch Moreland and has contact problems, but bats left-handed and has big-time raw power.

Making such a trade, Levine writes, could save the available cash to fill other holes, such as the pitching staff, where the club has needs in both the starting rotation and in the bullpen.

The Cubs have been connected to Dunn, but there are no indications that there is serious consideration by the Cubs, and Levine's report includes a blurb that the two sides have not yet spoken.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Will Phils pass on Werth?[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Jayson Werth | Phillies[/h5]


Maybe it's because GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn't want to take part in prolonged negotiations with agent Scott Boras, but thePhillies may be be ready to move on without free agent outfielder Jayson Werth.

Bob Brookover of the Philly Inquirer found it unusual that Amaro was more interested in talking about Raul Ibanez than Werth on Thursday. "By talking up Ibanez - most likely in an effort to increase the leftfielder's trade value - Amaro, consciously or not, devalued Werth's contributions to the team last season," Brookover writes.

The Phillies may want to re-sign Werth but aren't sitting around and waiting out the situation. ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reported Wednesday that the Phillies have been discussing a trade with the Chicago White Sox that would bring Carlos Quentin to Philly where he'd presumably replace Werth in the lineup.

The club's aggressiveness when it comes to retaining or replacing Werth suggests they are not willing to hand Domonic Brown the starting job right out of the gate next spring, or that they are planning on finding a taker, some how, for Ibanez, who is entering the final year of a three-year deal that will pay him $10 million in 2011.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Why Greinke could be traded[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Zack Greinke | Royals[/h5]


It's evident that the Kansas City Royals will listen to serious offers for Zack Greinke, but whether a deal gets done is another matter.

One AL executive gives Joel Sherman of the New York Post two reasons why he thinks Greinke will be dealt.

One is the value of ace-level pitching, which became more evident this year by the addition of Cliff Lee in Texas and Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt in Philadelphia. The exec adds that the Royals may be on edge over what happened to outfielder David DeJesus, who was injured just prior to the July trade deadline. Kansas City may not want to take the chance of seeing Greinke's value plummet due to an injury.

John Schlegel of MLB.com wrote last that it would take a blockbuster offer to land Greinke.

Who is interested in Greinke, especially since he can block a trade to 15 teams? Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports that the Blue Jays have inquired about Greinke's availability. We're guessing that the Royals will ask for top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, but that would be a tough sell.

- Doug Mittler

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[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Greinke a prime trade target
"It sounds like the Royals will at least listen to offers this winter, although with Greinke signed to a very reasonable deal through 2012, they have no urgency to make a move right away. But given how much talent they have coming, trading Greinke in the right deal could easily set them up for a couple of playoff berths in the 2013-2016 range. Greinke was off-the-charts valuable in 2009 -- more valuable than Cliff Lee was in either of the last two seasons, for example -- but his command wasn't quite as sharp in 2010, and he didn't have the same consistency on his curveball. His velocity was fine, his slider remained sharp, and he still has excellent control and a great feel for pitching. As for the depression issues that briefly derailed his career in 2006, I think it's an overblown concern for fans given the past three years of performance, durability, and zero hint of any problem that would affect him on the field."

http://[h3]Six teams looking at Scutaro[/h3]
11:33AM ET

[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox[/h5]

The Boston Red Sox are in the market for bullpen help, and one trading chip could be shortstop Marco Scutaro.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported Wednesday the Red Sox are open to trading Scutaro for the right part and that multiple teams are showing interest. Jed Lowrie would take over at shortstop if the Sox trade Scutaro, with the team presumably strengthening another area.

Sean McAdam of CSNEE.com reports that Scutaro has attracted interest from a half-dozen clubs.Scutaro's trade value is helped by a very affordable salary of $5 million for next season.

The Red Sox are looking for middle relief help to set the stage for Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon and might find a match with the Cardinals, Padres, Reds or Pirates, all of whom are looking for shortstop help.
 
The Diamondbacks turned the hot stove upside down this week with word that they'd consider trading Justin Upton for the right deal, and I have since spoken with several senior executives from other clubs who indicated that the price is probably high but he is indeed available.

Upton will start 2011 as a 23-year-old and is signed to a deal that owes him $49.5 million for the next five years, with a limited no-trade clause that includes four teams. He was a deserving All-Star in 2009, before tiring badly in September, but lost some power in 2010 and seemed to catch the swing-and-miss malaise that infected the entire Arizona roster (although he improved his walk rate over 2009). He's an above-average defender in right field with a strong arm, and I think it's possible he could return to center field if he's traded, since he was moved to right to accommodate Chris Young and not through any failing of his own.

So why would Arizona GM Kevin Towers want to deal a franchise player who's locked up to a reasonable deal? Let's consider some factors:

1. He doubts Upton's on-field potential. This seems unlikely, as Towers is a former scout who values tools and Upton is a hardware store who was a No. 1 overall pick. He also posted a .388 on-base average in his age-21 season (2009). In the last 50 years, the only other players who've posted a .350/.500 OBP/SLG line at 21 or younger, as Upton did that year, are Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr. and Cesar Cedeno. Rodriguez even followed up that year with a more severe dropoff than Upton saw in 2010. There are no guarantees, even with players of Upton's talent, but you don't walk away from that kind of skill set and performance cavalierly.

2. He doubts Upton's makeup. Most of the bad makeup reports about the younger Upton appear to stem from his brother's reputation, although I know there were some concerns about Justin's responsiveness to coaching in the spring of 2009, when he showed up with an altered swing that he didn't correct until a week into the season. He's not Milton Bradley, though, and if he's Gary Sheffield, well, that one worked out OK.

3. He questions Upton's ability to stay healthy. Upton has had problems with his left shoulder in each of the last two years, nothing major but perhaps enough to convince Towers and his staff that there's an underlying issue. I imagine any potential trade partner would want to do extra due diligence on Upton for that reason.

4. He wants to win in 2011 and can't do it without trading Upton. In other words, Towers, who is on a two-year contract, figures he can trade the long-term potential of Upton for players with shorter-time horizons (fewer years to free agency for more guaranteed immediate performance). Given how available Upton appears to be, this seems like it must be at least part of the motivation, as there is no good long-term rationale (that we know of as outsiders) for trading Upton when he has yet to reach his peak and is signed to a reasonable deal that will be cheap if he hits his ceiling.

I imagine it's a lot of No. 4, given Towers' short window and public statements about making the team competitive in 2011, and some of Nos. 1 or 3, too. But even if he is skeptical about Upton, other GMs won't be. Players of Upton's talent rarely come on the market before free agency, at which point many clubs are priced out, and a trade now represents a rare opportunity for a team to acquire a potential star early in his ascent.

Based on those conversations with rival executives, I think Towers will ask for at least two players with major league experience, who can help the Diamondbacks in 2011, plus two others from the other team's farm system. It's a high price, but if you believe, as I do, that Upton will be one of the best players in the game by the time he's 26 or 27, it's justified.
[h3]Around the league[/h3]
• MLB appears headed for a further devaluation of the regular season and its own history by expanding the playoffs to include two more teams, which will be as blatant a money-grab as you'll see short of franchise expansion. I look forward to the Tigers and Rangers hosting American League Division Series games on Thanksgiving in a few years.

• The Astros picked up Clint Barmes, who can play some defense but is an atrocious hitter, in exchange for erratic but hard-throwing Felipe Paulino. I could see Paulino having some success in a relief role, although that lefties torch him -- he's faced 399 left-handed batters in his major league career and 161 (over 40 percent) have reached base -- limits his value ... but I'd take him over Barmes eight days a week.

• I've seen this mentioned on Twitter, on Fangraphs and in the next item, but it bears repeating: Felix Hernandez' victory in the Cy Young voting isn't a victory for new statistics but for a better philosophy. Hernandez led the AL in such decidedly pedestrian statistics as ERA and innings pitched and was second in strikeouts, traditionally a recipe not just for votes but for a lot of wins, if you're not relying on the 1899 Cleveland Spiders' offense for support. King Felix' coronation is more a recognition that the old way of identifying pitcher quality through won-lost records first and maybe ERA second is dumb and that we need to think about what a pitcher can control and what he can't. There's no single stat that put Hernandez over the top, nor is there a single stat that beats all others for accurately measuring pitcher performance. But voters thought about this year's AL Cy candidates differently than they did five years ago, and that is good news for serious fans of the game.

• Joe Posnanski chimes in that the win isn't really dead. I picture the win slung over ERA's shoulder, groaning, "I'm not dead." I'd be glad to give ERA a little help.

• By the way, one last thought on yesterday's AL Cy Young announcement: Did you know that "oldfangled" is a word? I had no idea until I wrote this article, but I'm definitely going to start referring to useless accounting statistics like pitcher wins, saves and RBI as "oldfangled."

• The Asian Games are going on right now, with South Korea facing Taiwan in the baseball final on Friday. If the Koreans win, Shin-Soo Choo, the lone major league player on the team, will earn an exemption from military service that might otherwise have interrupted his major league career. (Ed's Note: South Korea has won.)

• Michael Schmidt of the New York Times reported on a disturbing (to me, at least) trend of investors in "Latin American baseball futures" -- in effect, funding trainers and academies in the Dominican Republic who identify players and take as much as half of their signing bonuses if and when they turn pro. It's disturbing because it's totally unregulated and has significant potential to defraud investors and to transfer money to those wealthy investors that would normally have gone to the players' families.

• The Yankees signed the latest Dominican mystery man, Jose Rafael DePaula, according to SI's Melissa Segura.He's touched 96 mph in the past and has an upper-70s curveball with good arm speed on his changeup, according to scouts who've seen him. He failed an age investigation, eventually admitting he's 19 and had used a false name previously, but other than that he's a wonderful guy.

• Great stuff on a great blog, as Beyond the Box Score looks at pitchers getting wide zones from umpires.

• Sabernomics blogger -- and econ professor -- J.C. Bradbury argues for Albert Pujols as baseball's first $40 million man. I don't see it, myself. Pujols will play at 31 years old in 2011 and will likely decline at least somewhat over the course of a six- or seven-year contract, and getting him to $40 million of value would require aggressive salary inflation. The Cardinals are not the Yankees, and their front office is too business-savvy to take on that kind of expensive risk.

• In other sports-related news: I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the series of articles I wrote this week for mental_floss on board games, including yesterday's piece on the history of the growing cult favorite Settlers of Catan, which remains among our favorites even as our collection of "German-style" board games has grown.

The Atlanta Braves made the first big strike of the offseason Tuesday, acquiring (some would say stealing) second baseman Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins for infielder Omar Infante and relief pitcher Mike Dunn. Uggla will be one of the biggest names to switch teams this offseason, a big enough name that even the notoriously penny-pinching Marlins were willing to offer him a four-year, $48 million contract. But Uggla's camp turned down the offer, leading to his trade to Atlanta. The surprising thing wasn't that he was traded but how little the Marlins got in return -- Infante is a good player but, like Uggla, will be a free agent a year from now and a definite downgrade.

So, how will Uggla fare in Atlanta? Expectations will be high with him coming off career highs in homers (33), RBIs (105) and batting average (.287), and the Braves have good reason to hope that he will become the team's first second baseman to hit 30 home runs since Davey Johnson hit 43 in 1973.

The first thing to look at is the difference in parks. Although Sun Life Stadium (or whatever name the oft-changed stadium goes by when you read this) has a reputation of being a pitcher's park, that really hasn't held true in recent years. During the 1990s, it was a pretty solid pitcher's park on a regular basis, but park factors are measured relative to the rest of the league.

With the exception of Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, most of the newer parks have tended to be pitcher-friendly, which makes Sun Life more a hitter's park by default relative to the rest of the NL. Nobody's going to confuse the park with Coors or Chase, but during the past four years, the Marlins and their opponents have scored a modest 2 percent more runs in Marlins home games than on the road. Sun Life still suppresses home runs by about 10 percent. However, even for a 30-homer hitter, a 10 percent increase in homers is only an extra homer or two. (Remember, half the games are played on the road.)

Going from Florida to Atlanta, Uggla should pick up a couple of homers and lose a few singles and doubles. He's also likely to lose some walks, as Sun Life has had consistently high walk (and strikeout) factors in its history.

For the bottom line, ZiPS projects Uggla to hit .259/.346/.469 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 29 homers and 87 RBIs. The lower homer total is mainly because Uggla has been extremely durable, not something you want to count on too much from an over-30 middle infielder -- it's always good to lower expectations into the 145- to 150-game range. Uggla still has some upside left, especially on the homer side -- ZiPS gives him a realistic shot (10 percent) at hitting the 40-homer mark for the first time and even a 1-in-70 shot to hit 50 homers. Even if Uggla hits only 29 homers, the Braves will be extremely satisfied.

There is at least some reason for optimism on the home-field front. Uggla has hit well in Turner Field; his 12 home runs there are the most for him in any road park. You want to be careful not to get too excited about a very small slice of statistics (199 plate appearances), but the Braves have to feel a bit more comfortable when their big acquisition has hit .354/.399/.652 at their field.

Another factor that could pay off for the Braves is that Uggla's right-handed bat fills a void in the lineup. The team has been short on lefty-killers for a while, outside of Matt Diaz, and the team as a whole had an OPS 30 points worse against left-handers than against righties. Troy Glaus was brought in for that purpose but showed that he was clearly on the downside of his career. Uggla's not a classic lefty-crusher, but he hits for enough power against them to help keep lefties like Johan Santana and Cole Hamels honest. Santana, in particular, has been tough on the Braves (a 2.28 ERA in 12 starts against Atlanta), and it's definitely nice to have that extra righty slugger in the event that the Sandy Alderson-fueled Mets show more life in 2011.

In the long term, there are questions about Uggla. He's consistently below-average defensively at second, and if the Braves give him an extension, they likely will pay for his declining years. (Most infielders don't age as well as Jeff Kent.) However, for 2011, Uggla's a great addition for the Braves, and if GM Frank Wren keeps adding star players without giving up any parts of the future, the Philadelphia Phillies should start to sweat.

[h3]Duke's market[/h3]
12:22PM ET

[h5]Zach Duke | Pirates[/h5]


Left-hander Zach Duke was designated for assignment Friday by the Pittsburgh Pirates after attempts to negotiate a reduced-salary contract and trade the 27-year-old failed.

It's easy to see why the Pirates let Duke go, considering their financial state -- Duke was due a raise through arbitration after making $4.3 million next season and could have earned as much a $6 million in 2011.

But Duke should find work this winter without issue, despite the poor win-loss record and a ballooned ERA. By measures of most advanced statistics, Duke has pitched much better than the 5.72 ERA he posted in 2010, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com pointed out via Twitter.

Stephen Goff of the Houston Chronicle wrote Friday that Duke fits the profile of the No. 4 or 5 starter the Houston Astros are seeking this winter.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Colletti eyeing relief market?[/h3]
12:12PM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]


The Los Angeles Dodgers' relief corps struggled at times last season, particularly the middle relief and closer Jonathan Broxton. Ned Colletti would like to add to the unit, tweets Jim Bowden, but Broxton will remain the club's stopper.

Depending on how much money the Dodgers have to spend -- it seemed as if maybe they'd have very little due to the divorce proceedings but since the season ended they have signed Ted Lilly and Kiroki Kuroda to contracts worth $45 million in total -- Colletti could eye setup type arms such as Jason Frasor, Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour. But if Joaquin Benoit, at 33 and a health risk, is getting three years at more than $5 million per season, the Dodgers may be better off checking on the likes of Matt Guerrier, and calling Seattle about the availability of either David Aardsma or Brandon League.

If Colletti would like to free up left-hander Hon-Chi Kuo to face key lefty bats in the 7th or 8th inning, perhaps adding a second left-hander to the bullpen makes sense. George Sherrill struggled in 2010 and is likely to be non-tendered next month, but Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes and Pedro Feliciano are among the free agent southpaws.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Rangers ink Loux[/h3]
11:57AM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers[/h5]


The Texas Rangers have signed right-hander Barret Loux, reports the Dallas Morning News, after less than three months of free agency. Loux, a first-round pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks this past June, failed a physical nullifying a $2 million agreement. Major League Baseball ruled Lou a free agent in September.

Loux is considered a legitimate power arm, though his future role is in question. The biggest concern, however, is the health of his throwing arm. The Rangers invested just $312,000 on him, but there is a chance he'll need surgery to repair damage in his shoulder.

It may be simply a shot in the dark, and for so little money in the baseball world, perhaps the risk pays off for the Rangers in the form of a power reliever.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Latest on Upton[/h3]
11:51AM ET

[h5]Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | Interested: Braves?, Cardinals?, Yankees?, Red Sox?[/h5]


General managers concluded their meetings Thursday in Orlando, where the buzz through the hotel lobby centered on the availability of Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports the Diamondbacks were approached by as many as 16 teams about Upton and five showed a strong inclination to push talks further along. The Yankees were not among the teams showing interest.

Ken Rosenthal tweets Thursday morning that the Seattle Mariners have not ruled out a run at Upton and mentions that GM Jack Zduriencik could build a package around right-hander Michael Pineda, and FoxSports.com's Jon Morosi mentions that the addition of Rajai Davis by the Toronto Blue Jays could free up Travis Snider to be included in a package for Upton.

The Blue Jays could include arms such as Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart to catch the attention of D-backs GM Kevin Towers.

The problem for Seattle, however, is that without mortgaging off too much of their future they lack the inventory of young talent it appears it will take to land Upton. They are counting on Dustin Ackley to take over at second base as early as 2011 and don't have as much depth in their system as do the Boston Red Sox and other clubs, including the Toronto Blue Jays, whom Rosenthal tweets was the mystery team previously mentioned.

At the very least, we know that Towers is willing to listen, even if he might be asking for a king's ransom.

Jon Heyman of SI.com cites an AL executive who says what the D-backs are asking for Upton "is ridiculous."

Meanwhile, Sean McAdam of Comcast Sports Net writes Wednesday evening that Boston's interest in Justin Upton is legitimate, but unless the Diamondbacks come down off their initial asking price, it's highly unlikely a deal will occur.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic said on 710 ESPN in Seattle that he believes Towers will have to be completely blown away and sure that he's won the trade to consider pulling the trigger on a deal to send Upton outof Phoenix.

Ken Rosenthal tweeted Friday that the four teams on Upton's no-trade list are the Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics.

Expect the Upton speculation to continue into next month's winter meetings in Florida.

- Doug Mittler

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Can Upton be dealt?
"The Diamondbacks turned the hot stove upside down this week with word that they'd consider Upton for the right deal, and I have since spoken with several senior executives from other clubs who indicated that the price is probably high but he is indeed available. He's an above-average defender in right field with a strong arm, and I think it's possible he could return to center field if he's traded, since he was moved to right to accommodate Chris Young and not through any failing of his own."

http://[h3]Switching gears in Detroit?[/h3]
11:45AM ET

[h5]Joel Zumaya | Tigers[/h5]


The Detroit Tigers just handed right-hander Joaquin Benoit a three-year deal worth $16.5 million guaranteed in attempts to shore up their bullpen, and that may be the final move they make on the relief pitching front.

The club adds Benoit to a group that includes closer Jose Valverde, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth and Joel Zumaya, whom the club believes will be 100 percent healthy once spring training starts in February.

The Tigers are expected to make competitive offers to catcher Victor Martinez and outfielder Carl Crawford, however, so their offseason antics have likely just begun.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Cubs checking SP market[/h3]
11:40AM ET

[h5]Chicago Cubs[/h5]


UPDATE: The Chicago Sun-Times reported earlier this week that the Cubs met with the agents for Javier Vazquez, Aaron Harang and Vicente Padilla, so it appears as if the Cubs may see some value in spending a little money on their rotation this winter, as none of the above three are likely to come super cheap, and perhaps would require multi-year pacts.

----

By all accounts, the Chicago Cubs are not planning on bidding for Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth this winter, but could be players for second-tier starting pitchers such as Kevin Millwood, as Gordon Wittenmyer wrote Sunday.

Wittenmyer also mentions Jake Westbrook and Javier Vazquez as potential targets, and right-hander Jeremy Bonderman could be among those considered as well.

Westbrook is already drawing strong interest from the Cardinals and it's unclear what Vazquez is thinking these days after struggling in New York twice and often using his no-trade clause to avoid being dealt to clubs away from the east coast.

Jon Garland could be of some interest to the Cubs as well, but just like every other potential personnel move, the Cubs' search for starting pitching will come down to finances.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Shortstop trade options[/h3]
11:35AM ET

[h5]Shortstop Trade Options[/h5]


Every winter there are clubs looking for shortstop help, and sometimes it doesn't end there. The Detroit Tigers, for example, had to go get one at the trade deadline this past summer. But finding one in free agency is not easy and this winter, as the best of the best include an aging Edgar Renteria, Cesar Izturis, and Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who comes with the inherent risk of cultural transition as well as the cost involved to win the bidding on top of the salary. So trading for a shortstop might be the best option, and there are options.

Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro are all trade-available, with the Baltimore Orioles having had talks with the Twins and Rays already. The Orioles are also one club expected to bid on Nishioka.

Scutaro, because of the presence of Jed Lowrie and prospect Jose Iglesias, is viewed as somewhat expendable while the Rays can simply plug in Reid Brignac and be just fine. The Twins, however, don't have a fallback option outside Trevor Plouffe, and may also be interested in the Japanese batting champ.

All three veterans will be free agents following 2011, which means clubs would be trading for just one season of each player, but there's certainly going to be interest.

Said interest may pick up after the Nishioka situation is resolved, which could come some time next week. The Giants, Cardinals, Padres and Mariners could show interest in any of the three established big leaguers, and if the Mets make Jose Reyes available, the flood gates may open in Queens.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could DeJesus be an option in L.A.?[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]


If the season started today, the Los Angeles Dodgers would likely start Jamey Carroll at second base, or would need to tender Ryan Theriot. But The club may have some options in the minors in the form of Ivan Dejesus, Jr. and perhaps Chin-Lung Hu.

Both player excel defensively, though Hu has had a chance in the big leagues and hit just .181. DeJesus, coming off a serious leg injury in 2009, hit .296 in his return and could be big-league ready at the plate now, too, writes ESPNLosAngeles.com's Tony Jackson.

DeJesus, a natural shortstop, does lack power, however, but if he can make contact consistently he may be able to hit for enough average to combine with his speed and defense to be an adequate option for GM Ned Colletti as early as Opening Day 2011.

Hu is 26 already and may be best suited as a reserve, but with such options in place, second base may be a spot where the Dodgers don't feel a great need to spend money this winter.

Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez and Juan Uribe could be among those considered if Colletti heads to free agency for answers, and the club has been connected to Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who was posted recently.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Cubs first base options[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Chicago Cubs[/h5]


The Chicago Cubs traded Derrek Lee to the Atlanta Braves last summer, officially starting their search for Lee's successor. The free agent market boasts several potential targets, including Lee, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena. But Bruce Levine, thinking a little outside the box, has another idea.

Levine mentions Texas Rangers first baseman Chris Davis as an option. Davis lost his starting job to Mitch Moreland and has contact problems, but bats left-handed and has big-time raw power.

Making such a trade, Levine writes, could save the available cash to fill other holes, such as the pitching staff, where the club has needs in both the starting rotation and in the bullpen.

The Cubs have been connected to Dunn, but there are no indications that there is serious consideration by the Cubs, and Levine's report includes a blurb that the two sides have not yet spoken.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Will Phils pass on Werth?[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Jayson Werth | Phillies[/h5]


Maybe it's because GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn't want to take part in prolonged negotiations with agent Scott Boras, but thePhillies may be be ready to move on without free agent outfielder Jayson Werth.

Bob Brookover of the Philly Inquirer found it unusual that Amaro was more interested in talking about Raul Ibanez than Werth on Thursday. "By talking up Ibanez - most likely in an effort to increase the leftfielder's trade value - Amaro, consciously or not, devalued Werth's contributions to the team last season," Brookover writes.

The Phillies may want to re-sign Werth but aren't sitting around and waiting out the situation. ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reported Wednesday that the Phillies have been discussing a trade with the Chicago White Sox that would bring Carlos Quentin to Philly where he'd presumably replace Werth in the lineup.

The club's aggressiveness when it comes to retaining or replacing Werth suggests they are not willing to hand Domonic Brown the starting job right out of the gate next spring, or that they are planning on finding a taker, some how, for Ibanez, who is entering the final year of a three-year deal that will pay him $10 million in 2011.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Why Greinke could be traded[/h3]
11:34AM ET

[h5]Zack Greinke | Royals[/h5]


It's evident that the Kansas City Royals will listen to serious offers for Zack Greinke, but whether a deal gets done is another matter.

One AL executive gives Joel Sherman of the New York Post two reasons why he thinks Greinke will be dealt.

One is the value of ace-level pitching, which became more evident this year by the addition of Cliff Lee in Texas and Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt in Philadelphia. The exec adds that the Royals may be on edge over what happened to outfielder David DeJesus, who was injured just prior to the July trade deadline. Kansas City may not want to take the chance of seeing Greinke's value plummet due to an injury.

John Schlegel of MLB.com wrote last that it would take a blockbuster offer to land Greinke.

Who is interested in Greinke, especially since he can block a trade to 15 teams? Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports that the Blue Jays have inquired about Greinke's availability. We're guessing that the Royals will ask for top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, but that would be a tough sell.

- Doug Mittler

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Greinke a prime trade target
"It sounds like the Royals will at least listen to offers this winter, although with Greinke signed to a very reasonable deal through 2012, they have no urgency to make a move right away. But given how much talent they have coming, trading Greinke in the right deal could easily set them up for a couple of playoff berths in the 2013-2016 range. Greinke was off-the-charts valuable in 2009 -- more valuable than Cliff Lee was in either of the last two seasons, for example -- but his command wasn't quite as sharp in 2010, and he didn't have the same consistency on his curveball. His velocity was fine, his slider remained sharp, and he still has excellent control and a great feel for pitching. As for the depression issues that briefly derailed his career in 2006, I think it's an overblown concern for fans given the past three years of performance, durability, and zero hint of any problem that would affect him on the field."

http://[h3]Six teams looking at Scutaro[/h3]
11:33AM ET

[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox[/h5]

The Boston Red Sox are in the market for bullpen help, and one trading chip could be shortstop Marco Scutaro.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported Wednesday the Red Sox are open to trading Scutaro for the right part and that multiple teams are showing interest. Jed Lowrie would take over at shortstop if the Sox trade Scutaro, with the team presumably strengthening another area.

Sean McAdam of CSNEE.com reports that Scutaro has attracted interest from a half-dozen clubs.Scutaro's trade value is helped by a very affordable salary of $5 million for next season.

The Red Sox are looking for middle relief help to set the stage for Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon and might find a match with the Cardinals, Padres, Reds or Pirates, all of whom are looking for shortstop help.
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

The Yanks have young arms, some decent position players and probably the top (at least one of the top 3) hitters in the minors. I fail to see how they'll fall off hard. Their defense will still be solid with a decent left side and one of the best right sides in the majors and an OF that can track down balls hit into the gaps and with 2 good arms. I really don't see how missing out on one player will mean they're going to fall off hard.

Maybe they do, but that's just my take.
  
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

The Yanks have young arms, some decent position players and probably the top (at least one of the top 3) hitters in the minors. I fail to see how they'll fall off hard. Their defense will still be solid with a decent left side and one of the best right sides in the majors and an OF that can track down balls hit into the gaps and with 2 good arms. I really don't see how missing out on one player will mean they're going to fall off hard.

Maybe they do, but that's just my take.
  
 
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Originally Posted by Proshares

The Yanks have young arms, some decent position players and probably the top (at least one of the top 3) hitters in the minors. I fail to see how they'll fall off hard. Their defense will still be solid with a decent left side and one of the best right sides in the majors and an OF that can track down balls hit into the gaps and with 2 good arms. I really don't see how missing out on one player will mean they're going to fall off hard.

Maybe they do, but that's just my take.
  
Um, we might be lacking in terms of up and coming SS but our stock of arms is arguably the best in the whole league.  Just read some of the scouting reports.  Our OF as of right now is very young.  Tex isn't that old on 1st and Cano is young at 2b.  Sure Jeter and A-Rod are up there in years but every team has an old player or 2.  Plus our catching situation should improve over the next 2 years with both Romine being up by then and Montero taking over the C position. 
 
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Originally Posted by Proshares

The Yanks have young arms, some decent position players and probably the top (at least one of the top 3) hitters in the minors. I fail to see how they'll fall off hard. Their defense will still be solid with a decent left side and one of the best right sides in the majors and an OF that can track down balls hit into the gaps and with 2 good arms. I really don't see how missing out on one player will mean they're going to fall off hard.

Maybe they do, but that's just my take.
  
Um, we might be lacking in terms of up and coming SS but our stock of arms is arguably the best in the whole league.  Just read some of the scouting reports.  Our OF as of right now is very young.  Tex isn't that old on 1st and Cano is young at 2b.  Sure Jeter and A-Rod are up there in years but every team has an old player or 2.  Plus our catching situation should improve over the next 2 years with both Romine being up by then and Montero taking over the C position. 
 
Ok. So they have a good farm system. But the core of this Yankees team has been the same for years and it appears they're all just holding on for as long as possible and the Yankees are letting them do it.

There has been little filtering of their top talent onto their ML team. These old dudes will retire in a clump and even though the young guys might be producing down below, the chances of all of them panning out at the same time is unlikely.

There will be a lull in the Yankee greatness for a few years. It's just a matter of time.
 
Ok. So they have a good farm system. But the core of this Yankees team has been the same for years and it appears they're all just holding on for as long as possible and the Yankees are letting them do it.

There has been little filtering of their top talent onto their ML team. These old dudes will retire in a clump and even though the young guys might be producing down below, the chances of all of them panning out at the same time is unlikely.

There will be a lull in the Yankee greatness for a few years. It's just a matter of time.
 
^
Eh, nobody thought their farm was all gonna come up and do it back in 96 either.  That worked out ok.  *shrugs* 

I don't see how or why there would be a lull.  If they get just one or two of their kids in the lineup to pay off, Tex and Cano last a while, get lucky with a couple of arms, their payroll can continue to fill out the rest of that roster with ease.  They don't need 5-6 position players and 4-5 pitchers to come thru the farm system, they need a couple and that's it. 

It's already been proven they won't win it all every single year, but in terms of lull like you're referring too, naw, that's not gonna happen.  Not until baseball finds a way to balance out money and get a salary cap type situation put together, otherwise, those Yankee dollars aren't going to dry up. 
 
^
Eh, nobody thought their farm was all gonna come up and do it back in 96 either.  That worked out ok.  *shrugs* 

I don't see how or why there would be a lull.  If they get just one or two of their kids in the lineup to pay off, Tex and Cano last a while, get lucky with a couple of arms, their payroll can continue to fill out the rest of that roster with ease.  They don't need 5-6 position players and 4-5 pitchers to come thru the farm system, they need a couple and that's it. 

It's already been proven they won't win it all every single year, but in terms of lull like you're referring too, naw, that's not gonna happen.  Not until baseball finds a way to balance out money and get a salary cap type situation put together, otherwise, those Yankee dollars aren't going to dry up. 
 
Can't remember '96 too much anymore, so I didn't think about them all coming up at once, but I'm glad you realize how that Championship team was built. I've been in numerous amounts of arguments over that.

Anyway, I still find that it might be hard to strike gold like that twice, but you never know. If they do keep spending money then yes, it's hard to see them having a lull.

My post a few back was saying that if they didn't land Lee that it might happen. I also forgot to mention that not only signing Lee, but if Pettite retired. It's circumstantial, but if that happens, in my opinion, there will be a 3-year lull where this team has aging stars mixed with raw youth combining in a little lull.
 
Can't remember '96 too much anymore, so I didn't think about them all coming up at once, but I'm glad you realize how that Championship team was built. I've been in numerous amounts of arguments over that.

Anyway, I still find that it might be hard to strike gold like that twice, but you never know. If they do keep spending money then yes, it's hard to see them having a lull.

My post a few back was saying that if they didn't land Lee that it might happen. I also forgot to mention that not only signing Lee, but if Pettite retired. It's circumstantial, but if that happens, in my opinion, there will be a 3-year lull where this team has aging stars mixed with raw youth combining in a little lull.
 
If they miss out on Lee and Pettitte retires, they're going to panic and try and package Montero for an arm.
 
If they miss out on Lee and Pettitte retires, they're going to panic and try and package Montero for an arm.
 
I never get tired of explaining to people why Felix Hernandez was the right choice for the AL Cy Young Award. So here come five of my favorite Felix tidbits:

1. It's not enough to say that King Felix got crummy run support. He got historically crummy run support. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he had A) the worst run support of any pitcher in baseball, B) the worst run support of any pitcher in this millennium and C) the worst run support by an AL pitcher with an ERA under 2.50 since Jon Matlack in 1978. Now that's crumminess!

2. I keep hearing the skeptics say the guy should have found ways to win more than 13 games. Uh, how exactly? In seven of his last 14 starts, he left in the seventh inning or later in games his team scored zero runs for him. So how exactly was he supposed to find a way to win those games? I guess the argument is, he should have stayed out there longer. But guess what? He faced more hitters (1,001) than any pitcher in the big leagues. Was he supposed to stay out there until he faced 2,000?

3. Then there's that other fun argument: Yeah, but King Felix didn't have to face the Yankees and Red Sox all the time like David Price did. True. But in the four starts in which he did face the Yankees and Red Sox, do you know what his ERA was? How about 0.54. Price's ERA in seven starts against New York and Boston was 3.61.

4. But, as one of my Twitter buddies pointed out, the world is indeed larger than the Yankees and Red Sox. Good point. So here's more: In 22 starts against teams with winning records, Hernandez had a 2.26 ERA. Price's ERA in 21 starts against teams that were .500 or better: 2.67. CC Sabathia's: 3.32.

5. Finally, I don't think it's dawned on people how great this guy was. Among Hernandez's many, many great feats, this one jumped off the screen at me: He ripped off 30 quality starts. No AL pitcher had thrown that many quality starts in a season in 21 years -- since Bret Saberhagen also racked up 30 in 1989. Know the last AL pitcher with more quality starts? That was Catfish Hunter, in 1974 (with 31). That was so long ago, King Felix was 12 years away from making his debut on Planet Earth.

So years like this don't come along too often, friends. And when they do, the least we can do to celebrate them is give the guy responsible the Cy Young Award. Don't you think?


With the Arizona Fall League being such a hitters' environment (the league ERA is just more than 5 again, and the Peoria Saguaros set an AFL record for highest team ERA), starting pitching prospects with good potential will stand out even more. Here are the top five starters from the AFL based on their future potential:

Mike Montgomery, Kansas City Royals: The biggest thing Montgomery needed to show was that he was healthy again after two separate elbow problems this season, and that he was looking better than when I saw him earlier in the season while rehabbing in rookie league play. Considering he was touching up to 96 mph on the gun here, I'd say he was feeling good again. His changeup was an above-average offering with good fade. He just needs to show better command of his curveball to go along with the depth. Though elbow trouble still gives us a little pause, the 21-year-old southpaw re-established himself as one of the best starting pitching prospects in the minors.

fan_g_banuelos_sy_300.jpg

Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesYankees prospect Manny Banuelos struck out 85 in 64 2/3 innings over three levels of the minors before heading to the AFL.

Manny Banuelos, New York Yankees: Banuelos was here to get some extra innings in after missing part of the season due to an appendectomy. He showed better stuff to go along with the polish and plus command that had been evident in the past, touching up to 95 mph in shorter stints, and sitting at 91-93 mph in his starts. He was aggressive, worked both sides of the plate and threw a plus changeup that was a true strikeout pitch, showing why he was able to get Double-A hitters out before his 20th birthday. He deserves more attention than he's probably been getting from fantasy owners in long-term keeper or dynasty leagues. Keith Law and I talked more about Montgomery and Banuelos in this video.

Casey Kelly, Boston Red Sox: Kelly hasn't had the results on the field to match his stuff and projection yet, but given that it was his first full season exclusively as a pitcher, we can cut him a little slack. Kelly's relatively easy delivery allows us to project better command in the future, and he was hitting 93-94 mph out here while showing flashes of both a solid curve and changeup. I think we just need to be patient here, and he's a good "buy low" candidate coming off a down season if you're fishing around for prospect throw-ins in long-term formats.

Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays: Cobb has flown under the radar a bit, especially in a system loaded with pitching like the Rays' system. The 23-year-old has advanced slowly up the ladder, but has gotten it done at every level, including handling the Double-A Southern League this year. Cobb gets it done by firing sinkers and pairing it with a split-like change thrown with a "Vulcan"-type grip. I was a bit skeptical when I got my first look at him, but he won me over by the end of the AFL. He was using the extra reps here to work on a cutter, as opposed to always falling back on his better, familiar offerings. Cobb needs to be on your radar screen, and is a potential solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter at the big league level.

Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: Duffy was very up and down at the AFL, pairing a few decent outings with a few horrible ones. He was lacking consistency in both velocity and command, although he did save his best outing for last, touching up to 94 from the left side and showing a better mid-70s curveball with tighter break to go with an average changeup. The inconsistency is not that surprising given his limited innings, as the 21-year-old left baseball for more than two months at end of spring to "reassess his life priorities." There's still a high ceiling here, but there remains a bit of work to do.
[h3]Other notes[/h3]
mlb_u_rzepczynski11_200.jpg

Tom Szczerbowski/US PresswireMarc Rzepczynski went 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in six outings at the Arizona Fall League.

•  The Toronto Blue Jays' Marc Rzepczynski isn't really a prospect, as he's already made 23 major league starts and showed some ability to not just get big leaguers out, but also to get them to swing and miss. He was down here to get in some extra work after an injury-shortened season, and he was dominant in his six starts. The lefty is a sinker/slider pitcher who tops out in the high 80s, but has a plus low-80s slider and gets ground balls. He can continue to have some success in the big leagues, but his arm action is pretty rough, and it's all about continuing to stay out of the trainer's room. If he's in a rotation, he's a sleeper pitcher in AL-only formats.

•  Eric Hurley of the Texas Rangers is another, um, hurler, who has had problems staying healthy, missing all of the past two seasons due to multiple surgeries on his rotator cuff and hand. After a slow start in the AFL, where his velocity was struggling to break 90, his slider was breaking too early, and he appeared to be afraid to really let it go, Hurley started coming around, finishing the AFL with a string of 20 scoreless innings. He eventually started touching 94 mph with his fastball, and his 83-85 mph slider got crisper. I'm still not that optimistic he has a future as a consistent major league starter, and that he'll miss enough bats, but he's just 25 and has at least put himself back on the radar screen after not pitching in games since 2008, although I don't see a need to take a chance on him at the moment in fantasy play.

•  Jeremy Jeffress of the Milwaukee Brewers, Carlos Gutierrez of the Minnesota Twins and Chris Carpenter of the Chicago Cubs are all pitchers who have started in the past, but worked out of the bullpen here in the Valley of the Sun. All profile better as relievers going forward. For Jeffress and Gutierrez, the bullpen is indeed where they will be as of next season. I discussed Carpenter more in depth in this blog entry.

•  Sammy Solis of the Washington Nationals was a second-round pick in the 2010 draft who had thrown just four pro innings before appearing at the AFL. He sat in the low 90s with his fastball, but has a solid changeup and potential with his curve to make him a three-pitch southpaw who can slot in the back of a big league rotation as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. I'd still like to see a better out pitch.

•  Daryl Thompson of the Cincinnati Reds is yet another pitcher who has seen some big league time (in 2008), but has had some problems staying healthy the past two seasons. His delivery is going to do him no favors in staying in a rotation, and he's really just a two-pitch guy with a fastball/changeup combo. His fly-ball profile also won't do him any favors with his home park. He's a bullpen arm at best, and not really a fantasy consideration.

•  I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention the Arizona Diamondbacks' Josh Collmenter, who, if nothing else, is one of the more interesting guys to watch throw here. It's definitely something different with his delivery and repertoire. He leans back to clear his body and throws as straight over the top as you can get, hiding the ball very well and adding some necessary deception to his fastball, considering he'll top out at 88 mph on a good day. (There's a "Back to the Future" joke in there somewhere). The only other thing notable about him is a plus changeup with split-like drop that he can make a chase pitch or throw for strikes. He struck out 30 in 26 2/3 innings here, including nine in his final four-inning outing, and put up a 1.82 ERA in 12 starts at Double-A this season.

Collmenter's deception and plus changeup will work against low-level hitters, but it's a profile that probably doesn't work against major league hitters. On the 20-to-80 scouting scale, it's a 40 fastball (even if it does play up a little bit) with 45 fastball command, a 40 curveball and a 65 changeup. That makes him a reliever at best that you'd only want to run once through the order, not a major league starter or a fantasy consideration.
 
I never get tired of explaining to people why Felix Hernandez was the right choice for the AL Cy Young Award. So here come five of my favorite Felix tidbits:

1. It's not enough to say that King Felix got crummy run support. He got historically crummy run support. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he had A) the worst run support of any pitcher in baseball, B) the worst run support of any pitcher in this millennium and C) the worst run support by an AL pitcher with an ERA under 2.50 since Jon Matlack in 1978. Now that's crumminess!

2. I keep hearing the skeptics say the guy should have found ways to win more than 13 games. Uh, how exactly? In seven of his last 14 starts, he left in the seventh inning or later in games his team scored zero runs for him. So how exactly was he supposed to find a way to win those games? I guess the argument is, he should have stayed out there longer. But guess what? He faced more hitters (1,001) than any pitcher in the big leagues. Was he supposed to stay out there until he faced 2,000?

3. Then there's that other fun argument: Yeah, but King Felix didn't have to face the Yankees and Red Sox all the time like David Price did. True. But in the four starts in which he did face the Yankees and Red Sox, do you know what his ERA was? How about 0.54. Price's ERA in seven starts against New York and Boston was 3.61.

4. But, as one of my Twitter buddies pointed out, the world is indeed larger than the Yankees and Red Sox. Good point. So here's more: In 22 starts against teams with winning records, Hernandez had a 2.26 ERA. Price's ERA in 21 starts against teams that were .500 or better: 2.67. CC Sabathia's: 3.32.

5. Finally, I don't think it's dawned on people how great this guy was. Among Hernandez's many, many great feats, this one jumped off the screen at me: He ripped off 30 quality starts. No AL pitcher had thrown that many quality starts in a season in 21 years -- since Bret Saberhagen also racked up 30 in 1989. Know the last AL pitcher with more quality starts? That was Catfish Hunter, in 1974 (with 31). That was so long ago, King Felix was 12 years away from making his debut on Planet Earth.

So years like this don't come along too often, friends. And when they do, the least we can do to celebrate them is give the guy responsible the Cy Young Award. Don't you think?


With the Arizona Fall League being such a hitters' environment (the league ERA is just more than 5 again, and the Peoria Saguaros set an AFL record for highest team ERA), starting pitching prospects with good potential will stand out even more. Here are the top five starters from the AFL based on their future potential:

Mike Montgomery, Kansas City Royals: The biggest thing Montgomery needed to show was that he was healthy again after two separate elbow problems this season, and that he was looking better than when I saw him earlier in the season while rehabbing in rookie league play. Considering he was touching up to 96 mph on the gun here, I'd say he was feeling good again. His changeup was an above-average offering with good fade. He just needs to show better command of his curveball to go along with the depth. Though elbow trouble still gives us a little pause, the 21-year-old southpaw re-established himself as one of the best starting pitching prospects in the minors.

fan_g_banuelos_sy_300.jpg

Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesYankees prospect Manny Banuelos struck out 85 in 64 2/3 innings over three levels of the minors before heading to the AFL.

Manny Banuelos, New York Yankees: Banuelos was here to get some extra innings in after missing part of the season due to an appendectomy. He showed better stuff to go along with the polish and plus command that had been evident in the past, touching up to 95 mph in shorter stints, and sitting at 91-93 mph in his starts. He was aggressive, worked both sides of the plate and threw a plus changeup that was a true strikeout pitch, showing why he was able to get Double-A hitters out before his 20th birthday. He deserves more attention than he's probably been getting from fantasy owners in long-term keeper or dynasty leagues. Keith Law and I talked more about Montgomery and Banuelos in this video.

Casey Kelly, Boston Red Sox: Kelly hasn't had the results on the field to match his stuff and projection yet, but given that it was his first full season exclusively as a pitcher, we can cut him a little slack. Kelly's relatively easy delivery allows us to project better command in the future, and he was hitting 93-94 mph out here while showing flashes of both a solid curve and changeup. I think we just need to be patient here, and he's a good "buy low" candidate coming off a down season if you're fishing around for prospect throw-ins in long-term formats.

Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays: Cobb has flown under the radar a bit, especially in a system loaded with pitching like the Rays' system. The 23-year-old has advanced slowly up the ladder, but has gotten it done at every level, including handling the Double-A Southern League this year. Cobb gets it done by firing sinkers and pairing it with a split-like change thrown with a "Vulcan"-type grip. I was a bit skeptical when I got my first look at him, but he won me over by the end of the AFL. He was using the extra reps here to work on a cutter, as opposed to always falling back on his better, familiar offerings. Cobb needs to be on your radar screen, and is a potential solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter at the big league level.

Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: Duffy was very up and down at the AFL, pairing a few decent outings with a few horrible ones. He was lacking consistency in both velocity and command, although he did save his best outing for last, touching up to 94 from the left side and showing a better mid-70s curveball with tighter break to go with an average changeup. The inconsistency is not that surprising given his limited innings, as the 21-year-old left baseball for more than two months at end of spring to "reassess his life priorities." There's still a high ceiling here, but there remains a bit of work to do.
[h3]Other notes[/h3]
mlb_u_rzepczynski11_200.jpg

Tom Szczerbowski/US PresswireMarc Rzepczynski went 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in six outings at the Arizona Fall League.

•  The Toronto Blue Jays' Marc Rzepczynski isn't really a prospect, as he's already made 23 major league starts and showed some ability to not just get big leaguers out, but also to get them to swing and miss. He was down here to get in some extra work after an injury-shortened season, and he was dominant in his six starts. The lefty is a sinker/slider pitcher who tops out in the high 80s, but has a plus low-80s slider and gets ground balls. He can continue to have some success in the big leagues, but his arm action is pretty rough, and it's all about continuing to stay out of the trainer's room. If he's in a rotation, he's a sleeper pitcher in AL-only formats.

•  Eric Hurley of the Texas Rangers is another, um, hurler, who has had problems staying healthy, missing all of the past two seasons due to multiple surgeries on his rotator cuff and hand. After a slow start in the AFL, where his velocity was struggling to break 90, his slider was breaking too early, and he appeared to be afraid to really let it go, Hurley started coming around, finishing the AFL with a string of 20 scoreless innings. He eventually started touching 94 mph with his fastball, and his 83-85 mph slider got crisper. I'm still not that optimistic he has a future as a consistent major league starter, and that he'll miss enough bats, but he's just 25 and has at least put himself back on the radar screen after not pitching in games since 2008, although I don't see a need to take a chance on him at the moment in fantasy play.

•  Jeremy Jeffress of the Milwaukee Brewers, Carlos Gutierrez of the Minnesota Twins and Chris Carpenter of the Chicago Cubs are all pitchers who have started in the past, but worked out of the bullpen here in the Valley of the Sun. All profile better as relievers going forward. For Jeffress and Gutierrez, the bullpen is indeed where they will be as of next season. I discussed Carpenter more in depth in this blog entry.

•  Sammy Solis of the Washington Nationals was a second-round pick in the 2010 draft who had thrown just four pro innings before appearing at the AFL. He sat in the low 90s with his fastball, but has a solid changeup and potential with his curve to make him a three-pitch southpaw who can slot in the back of a big league rotation as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. I'd still like to see a better out pitch.

•  Daryl Thompson of the Cincinnati Reds is yet another pitcher who has seen some big league time (in 2008), but has had some problems staying healthy the past two seasons. His delivery is going to do him no favors in staying in a rotation, and he's really just a two-pitch guy with a fastball/changeup combo. His fly-ball profile also won't do him any favors with his home park. He's a bullpen arm at best, and not really a fantasy consideration.

•  I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention the Arizona Diamondbacks' Josh Collmenter, who, if nothing else, is one of the more interesting guys to watch throw here. It's definitely something different with his delivery and repertoire. He leans back to clear his body and throws as straight over the top as you can get, hiding the ball very well and adding some necessary deception to his fastball, considering he'll top out at 88 mph on a good day. (There's a "Back to the Future" joke in there somewhere). The only other thing notable about him is a plus changeup with split-like drop that he can make a chase pitch or throw for strikes. He struck out 30 in 26 2/3 innings here, including nine in his final four-inning outing, and put up a 1.82 ERA in 12 starts at Double-A this season.

Collmenter's deception and plus changeup will work against low-level hitters, but it's a profile that probably doesn't work against major league hitters. On the 20-to-80 scouting scale, it's a 40 fastball (even if it does play up a little bit) with 45 fastball command, a 40 curveball and a 65 changeup. That makes him a reliever at best that you'd only want to run once through the order, not a major league starter or a fantasy consideration.
 
http://[h3]
[h3]Is De Le Rosa still a priority in Denver?[/h3]
11:04AM ET

[h5]Jorge De La Rosa | Rockies | Interested: Rockies, Yankees?, Pirates? [/h5]


The market for Jorge De La Rosa appears to be growing, and the Colorado Rockies may let the free agent pitcher walk if he gets an offer of more than three years.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported last week the Rockies are not prepared to get into a bidding war for De La Rosa and will bow out if the offer is for four years or more.

Renck adds Monday that a higher priority for the Rockies should be to acquire a No. 5 hitter such as Justin Upton.

If De La Rosa finds greener pastures, the Rockies will be looking to fill a hole in their rotation through trade or free agents. One possible target is Gavin Floyd, who reportedly could be shopped by the White Sox.

Multiple teams have expressed interest in De La Rosa, including the Pirates, who have the southpaw set as their top target. The Nationals and Orioles also are in the hunt.

De La Rosa, who went 8-7 with a 4.22 ERA this season, could ask for a four- or five-year contract after the Dodgers' http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4062Ted Lilly signed a three-year, $33 million deal.

- Doug Mittler

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
The Book on De La Rosa
"De La Rosa walks too many guys and he's only thrown more than 140 innings in a professional season once. He's injury-prone (non-arm; he lost two months to a finger in 2010), but his changeup is plus, and his slider is above-average. If you want a power arm with some potential development remaining, he's a good pickup."
[/h3]

http://[h3]$23M a year for Lee?[/h3]
10:56AM ET

[h5]Cliff Lee | Rangers [/h5]


Exactly how expensive will it be to land Cliff Lee? Perhaps $23 million to $24 million per year.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote Sunday that "Word is the Yankees are in the $115 million-$120 million range for five years, while the Rangers are determined to match whatever it gets up to. The Nationals are another team aggressive in this hunt."

Rangers president Nolan Ryan said last week he believed that his club would be outbid for Lee, so Cafardo's comments would be a change of course. But five years and $120 million may be a figure the Rangers can handle, though it's very early in the process and things can change in a hurry.

Up until now, any talk of a Lee contract has been compared to the seven-year, $161 million deal the Yankees gave to CC Sabathia a few years ago. Sabathia earns $23 million per season, but has a longer deal than Lee is expected to get.

Meanwhile, the agent for Lee insists that the pursuit of the free agent left-hander is more than just a two-horse race. "There has been significant interest from a multitude of teams," Darek Braunecker told ESPNNewYork.com.

Ryan is hoping that geography helps his club retain Lee as Arlington is just hours from Lee's Arkansas home.

Along with the Yankees and Rangers, the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationalsWashington Nationals have publicly acknowledged they have called or met with Braunecker. Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com says other teams believed to have some level of interest include the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-philliesPhiladelphia Phillies, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox and the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubsChicago Cubs.

At this stage, look for Lee to enjoy his Thanksgiving at home and for talks to heat up at the winter meetings next month in Florida.

- Doug Mittler

insider2_64x36.jpg
[h5]Baseball Prospectus[/h5]
Lee to the Bronx
"Lee had a less-than-ideal World Series, yes, but this is a Sabathia-level no-brainer as signings go. It's obvious and it's predictable, and indeed, by trading for Javier Vazquez to fit into that one-year budget slot, it was even more obvious and predictable. The Yankees have the financial muscle to add another player in the $20 million-plus price range, not just because they're shedding Vazquez's expense, but also because they can pitch the rest of the Core Four to take paycuts in their (less) golden years, just as Andy Pettitte has already done the last two."- Christina Kahrl

http://[h3]Bartlett could impact any Scutaro deal[/h3]
10:37AM ET

[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox are in the market for bullpen help, and one trading chip could be shortstop Marco Scutaro.

According to various reports, including one by Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, the Red Sox are open to trading Scutaro for the right part and that multiple teams are showing interest. Jed Lowrie would take over at shortstop if the Sox trade Scutaro, with the team presumably strengthening another area.

Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, however, writes that the availability of Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett on the trade market could impact Boston's ability to deal Scutaro.

Sean McAdam of CSNEE.com reports that Scutaro has attracted interest from a half-dozen clubs. Scutaro's trade value is helped by a very affordable salary of $5 million for next season.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Minaya in demand?[/h3]
10:24AM ET

[h5]Omar Minaya [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Omar Minaya took the fall for another subpar year by the New York Mets when he was fired as general manager shortly after a fourth straight non-playoff season.

Even if Minaya is part of the national unemployment rate of about 9.6%, he has no immediate financial worries. He is guaranteed annual salaries of $1.1 million for 2011 and 2012 as part of the contract extension he signed with New York in 2008.

Minaya's services may also be in demand, even if he is talking things slow. "I have many offers for different positions, including a few as assistant general manager, but I'm in no hurry," Minaya said Sunday to ESPNdeportes.com

This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Arizona Diamondbacks had offered Minaya a position as special assistant to the team's GM Kevin Towers. Minaya's strength is as a talent evaluator and not as an administrator or team spokesman, so he would fit in nicely to many team's scouting staff.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Paying Joey Votto[/h3]
10:09AM ET

[h5]Joey Votto | Reds [/h5]


A member of the Cincinnati Reds has not been named National League Most Valuable Player since Barry Larkin in 1995.

First baseman Joey Votto is a serious contender for the 2010 award which will be announced Monday afternoon, but he will have to dethrone Albert Pujols of the Cardinals in the process.

Whether Votto wins or not, the Reds have the 27-year-old under contract control for at least three more years. As much as the Reds would love to have Votto win the award, the MVP designation will make him even more expensive when it comes time for talks on a multi-year contract. Votto, who made $550,000 this season, is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Duke a fit with Tribe, Astros, Phils?[/h3]
9:51AM ET

[h5]Zach Duke | Pirates [/h5]


Left-hander Zach Duke was designated for assignment Friday by the Pittsburgh Pirates after attempts to negotiate a reduced-salary contract and trade the 27-year-old failed.

It's easy to see why the Pirates let Duke go, considering their financial state -- Duke was due a raise through arbitration after making $4.3 million next season and could have earned as much a $6 million in 2011.

But Duke should find work this winter without issue, despite the poor win-loss record and a ballooned ERA. By measures of most advanced statistics, Duke has pitched much better than the 5.72 ERA he posted in 2010, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com pointed out via Twitter.

Stephen Goff of the Houston Chronicle wrote Friday that Duke fits the profile of the No. 4 or 5 starter the Houston Astros are seeking this winter, and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer believes Duke is a potential fit with the Indians.

Matt Gelb of the Philly Inquirer writes that the Phillies could be interested in order to increase the competition at the back end of the rotation. The Phillies, however, might be willing to offer only a non-guaranteed deal, and Duke may balk at that.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Sizemore's trade value[/h3]
9:35AM ET

[h5]Grady Sizemore | Indians [/h5]


The free agent sweepstakes are in full swing, but don't forget those players will hit the market following the 2011 season. We know all about Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, who could be shopped this winter in an effort to get reasonable value in return.

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo said last week that the trade bait could include Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore, who is coming off two-injury plagued seasons.

The Indians traded Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee well before they reached fee agency, a policy that theoretically could continue with Sizemore. Sizemore will earn $7.5 million next season and has an $8.5 million club option for 2012 that becomes a player option if he is traded.

Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer disagrees, saying Sizemore has no real trade value until he's able to rebound from the microfracture surgery on his left knee and play in 2011.

Our Buster Olney has a similar take:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Sizemore on the block?
"Sizemore won't really have a lot of value until he shows he can play -- and it really isn't a good thing for the Indians to just dump him, without getting value in return."

http://[h3]Astros an attractive sell?[/h3]
9:24AM ET

[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]


Whispers of Drayton McLane's desire to sell the Houston Astros have been heard on and off for years. McLane may be serious this time, and he may have picked a perfect time to sell.

Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle reported Friday that McLane has retained the services of the investment bank Allen & Company to assist in the sale of the club.

The Allen & Company includes Steve Greenberg, the son of Baseball Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg who is considered one of the foremost brokers of deals in sports. Greenberg could help get top dollar for McLane, who has owned the team since 1992.

The Astros could sell for a figure in the range of $700 million to $800 million.

The team is even more attractive after it recently announced plans to launch a new regional sports network in partnership with the NBA's Rockets and Comcast.

Levine also reported over the weekend that the Astros should be relatively devoid of future payroll when McLane completes his sale of the team. The post-2011 Astros will be clear of what remains on Roy Oswalt's contract and have only one year left on Carlos Lee's megadeal. That makes the Astros even more attractive to potential owners.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Collins last in New York?[/h3]
9:10AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


Almost six weeks after firing Jerry Manuel, the New York Mets have decided on Terry Collins, as their next manager, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reported Sunday afternoon.

New GM Sandy Alderson took his time before making a decision and apparently will go with Collins, who served as the organization's minor league field coordinator this past season. He previously managed the Houston Astros from 1994 to 1996 and the then-Anaheim Angels from 1997 to 1999, compiling a 444-434 record.

Collins and former D-backs manager Bob Melvin were considered the front-runners for the job. Third base coach Chip Hale and Wally Backman also were finalists for the job.

Collins' candidacy was likely helped by the recent hiring of former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta to a front office position. DePodesta continues to have a high opinion of Collins and tried to hire him as manager in Los Angeles.

How will the hiring be viewed in a tough media market like New York? Hall of Fame writer Bill Maddden is skeptical. "There is nothing to suggest he isn't just another retread manager and not the kind of difference-maker the organization so desperately needs," Madden writes.

Our Buster Olney gives his take and wonders of Collins' sometimes intense personality will be an issue:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Is Collins a fit in NY?
"If he's the same, that's going to be a problem. The fans and media of New York are always flammable, even in the best of times, reacting and overreacting to two- and three-game losing streaks, and any manager who consistently fuels that with anger -- at his players, at losses -- will not last. Ever. A snappy, curt remark about a player's mistake might not be that big of a deal in other places, but in New York it can become a back-page story for days at a time."

http://[h3]Hurdle brings back Searage[/h3]
9:01AM ET

[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]


New Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has decided on four members of his staff, including Ray Searage as pitching coach, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette.

Kovakevic says Hurdle has decided on Searage as pitching coach, Gregg Ritchie as hitting coach, Jeff Banister as third base coach and Nick Leyva as bench coach. Searage replaced the fired Joe Kerrigan in August and, by all accounts, made a strong impression on the team's staff.

The rest of the staff is still being decided. There is speculation that Hurdle will find a spot for Andy Hawkins, who worked on the same staff with Hurdle in Texas this season. Hawkins was the bullpen coach.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Mets may bring back Mookie[/h3]
8:39AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


The New York Mets passed on Wally Backman when choosing a manager, but may add at least one member of their 1986 World Series championship team to their coaching staff.

Andy Martino of the Daily News reports that the Mets will definitely consider Mookie Wilson for a coaching position under Terry Collins.

Wilson, a Met from 1980-1989, coached first for the team from 1997-2002.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Jeter get his locker back?[/h3]
8:31AM ET

[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees gave away Derek Jeter's locker.

Yankee Stadium was the site of another Notre Dame-Army college football clash over the weekend, and the Fighting Irish, as the designated home team, used the Yankees locker room. QB Tommy Rees was thrilled to be assigned Jeter's locker.

Jeter and his representatives appear far less thrilled with the pace of their contract negotiations. Jeter's agent, Casey Close, told the Daily News' Mike Lupica over the weekend that he found the Yankees' strategy "baffling." Meanwhile, the Daily News cites an unidentified source who says the Yankees' "ambush" negotiations could backfire.

Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com last week cited a source who says the Yankees would be happy to get Jeter to agree to a three-year contract for $21 million a year. But Jeter, the source said, wants at least a four-year deal, preferably five or six. In addition, there is at least one voice inside the Yankees' hierarchy urging the front office to play hard ball with Jeter.

Mark Feinsand does the math in Friday's New York Daily News and says the two sides are $50 million apart.

The Yankees are hinting that the 36-year-old Jeter, who is coming off the worst season of his career, should realize that he will get nothing close to what the Yankees are offering should he test the open market. The Yankees, however, are fearful of fan backlash and a public relations nightmare if they let Jeter go.

Feinsand says Jeter would attract no more than a two-year deal for a total of $20 million if he hit the open market. Jeter has completed a 10-year, $189 million contract, earning $100 million of that over the past five years.

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The Jeter negotiations
"Do not assume, then, that the Yankees feel obligated to Jeter to pay him in the way that they paid Alex Rodriguez; rather, they are intent on not repeating the mistake of investing huge dollars in an aging player. They want to keep Jeter, and they are willing to pay him more than any other team will pay him. But the Steinbrenner sons are in a completely different time and place for these negotiations than they were when they gave a blank check to Rodriguez."

http://[h3]Iwakuma wants Zito money[/h3]
8:09AM ET

[h5]Hisashi Iwakuma [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Oakland Athletics won the rights to Hisashi Iwakuma but the right-hander is apparently asking for a contract similar to the deal the San Francisco Giants handed Barry Zito -- 7 years, $126 million -- which is more than twice what Daisuke Matsuzaka received from the Boston Red Sox.

The San Francisco Chronicle was the first to report that talks have broken off between Iwakuma and the A's. Oakland's winning bid was about $17 million, according to numerous reports, but it's a check the A's won't have to write if they cannot come to an agreement with the pitcher.

The two sides have until December 8 to work something out or Iwakuma will head back to Japan for 2011. The A's have traded right-hander Vin Mazzaro to the Kansas City Royals since winning the big on Iwakuma, but whether or not the club moved forward with that deal as a result of adding Iwakuma to the depth chart is unknown.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Any options for Peterson?[/h3]
8:03AM ET

[h5]Rick Peterson [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The chances of Rick Peterson landing a job as a big league pitching coach next season are dwindling.

The Brewers and new manager Ron Roenicke decided not to bring back the eccentric Peterson, who had one year left on this contract. The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are the only teams yet to settle on a pitching coach for next season.

Peterson's previous job was with the Mets and he has ties to the new regime of Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, and J.P. Ricciardi from their Oakland days. It will be interesting to see if new Mets manager Terry Collins is interested in Peterson. The guess here is that they stay with Dan Warthen, the pitching coach last season.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Trade ideas for Upton[/h3]
7:54AM ET

[h5]Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | Interested: Mariners?, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals?, Yankees? [/h5]


Several outlets are reporting that at least a handful of clubs have more than tire-kicking interest in trading for Justin Upton -- including the Boston Globe -- and while we can't be sure what exactly it would take for clubs to land the 23-year-old outfielder, it's certainly worth a look into some of those organizations to see what's there that the Arizona Diamondbacks may request in return.

Boston Red Sox
We have to assume that Towers will require young pitching as a major part of any package deal, and the Red Sox have arms to spare if they deem said pitching expendable. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester may be off limits, but prospects Casey Kelley and Stolmy Pimentel might be on the table.

The Red Sox could also offer a first base prospect such as Anthony Rizzo or Lars Anderson, outfielders Ryan Kalish and/or Jacoby Ellsbury and perhaps shortstop Jed Lowrie. Lowrie's inclusion could give Towers the flexibility to move Stephen Drew for even more pitching.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart, as well as young arms such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero that could headline a deal to land Upton. Catcher Travis d'Arnaud could be among the prospects involved, as could young right fielder Travis Snider, a power bat that could be quite attractive for the Diamondbacks.

It seems unlikely that catcher J.P. Arencibia could be included; the Jays may have to lean on the youngster in 2011 and beyond and the D-backs have Miguel Montero under club control for two more years.

New York Yankees
The Yankees could always lead off with Jesus Montero, which could catch the eye of the Diamondbacks, but reports are that the club plans on using Montero on the 25-man roster next year as a part-time catcher and designated hitter.

Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos are the Yankees' top two pitching prospects, but the system may not be deep enough to satisfy Arizona's demands, especially if Montero is off limits.

Seattle Mariners
Seattle is another club that lacks depth in the farm system, but leading off with right-hander Michael Pineda and perhaps centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, who is signed through 2013 with an option for 2014 at more than reasonable salaries and is considered among the very best defenders at his position in all of baseball.

Prospects such as second baseman Dustin Ackley and shortstop Nick Franklin may come up in conversation, but it could take both, on top of Pineda and others, to get the Diamondbacks to take the Mariners seriously.

Kansas City Royals
If Towers is demanding two young and inexpensive frontline starting pitchers, the Royals could accommodate by discussing names such as Mike Montgomery, Noel Arguelles, John Lamb and Aaron Crow. Even closer Joakim Soria could be dangled in such a deal and be deemed a valuable piece of a package since he's just 26 and signed through 2011 with three affordable club options.

The Royals also boast talent at other spots on the diamond, including first base where Eric Hosmer may be the top prospect at his position and among the Top 10 in the game overall. The Royals may be more willing to move Mike Moustakas than Hosmer, however, and Wil Myers is another player Towers could request. The Royals, however, are one of four clubs on Upton's no-trade list.

- Jason A. Churchill

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Can Upton be dealt?
"The Diamondbacks turned the hot stove upside down this week with word that they'd consider Upton for the right deal, and I have since spoken with several senior executives from other clubs who indicated that the price is probably high but he is indeed available. He's an above-average defender in right field with a strong arm, and I think it's possible he could return to center field if he's traded, since he was moved to right to accommodate Chris Young and not through any failing of his own."

 
In my first job out of college, I covered the Triple-A Nashville Sounds at the Nashville Banner. Frank Lucchesi was the manager of the team that year, 1989, and after losses he was relaxed as he answered questions and explained the decisions he had made.

But when the Buffalo Bisons came to town for the first time, it was a very different experience going into their clubhouse after a loss. As the players ate their postgame meal in front of their lockers, nobody uttered a word -- nobody. I went into the manager's office, and invariably he would be leaning on a pen, going through postgame paperwork -- writing his reports, I presume -- and he was never rude, but his intensity was unbelievable. I've never seen any manager quite like that since.

He would answer my questions directly, addressing mistakes that the Bisons had made, but I always thought that with one inarticulate or stupid question, I might set him off like a stick of dynamite. In a sport in which maintaining an even keel and in coping with the inherent daily failures -- a bad at-bat, a bad pitch, an error, a defeat -- that type of demeanor was, and is, very unusual.

That was the first time I met Terry Collins, and I'd bump into him from time to time. He was always pleasant and chatty and invested in what he was doing, and others would tell you that there could be no doubting his acumen, his extraordinary understanding of the sport.

He later became the manager of the Angels, and by chance, in the time I was covering the Yankees, he was replaced on a day when New York was in Anaheim. I went to the news conference with other reporters, and Collins was extremely emotional, devastated, like a man who'd been gnawed from the inside by what had happened in his clubhouse.

So when Collins emerged as a managerial candidate with the Mets, my first instinct -- as someone who has seen Collins work and as someone who covered the Mets and Yankees -- is that he couldn't possibly fit in New York unless he had changed dramatically through his experience.

And now the Mets have chosen him to be their next manager, writes David Waldstein.

It's quite possible that Collins has changed. Others have. If you watch clips of Joe Torre in his first years as manager, he was much more reactive and volatile than the calm person we saw on the bench in his Yankees years. Players and managers evolve, as we all can.

If Collins is the same, that will be a problem. The fans and media of New York are always flammable, even in the best of times, reacting and overreacting to two- and three-game losing streaks. Any manager who consistently fuels that with anger -- at his players, at losses -- will not last. Ever. A snappy, curt remark about a player's mistake might not be that big a deal in other places, but in New York it can become a back-page story for days. A manager who lets defeat eat at him will not last, and without a healthy Johan Santana, the Mets may lose a lot next year.

Lest there be any doubt, Collins is more than smart enough to adapt. He certainly will recognize the pitfalls as he starts out. The question is whether he's changed enough to survive. One thing is almost certain: Terry Collins, as good a baseball man as there is, will be an overwhelming success or a complete disaster.

The selection of Collins reflects the power -- actually, considering the personalities involved, the word "influence" might be more appropriate than "power" -- of Paul DePodesta, the Mets' vice president of player development and scouting. DePodesta has a seven-figure salary as the No. 2 guy in Mets baseball operations, an extraordinary investment by Sandy Alderson and a reflection of how highly he regards DePodesta.

The big question is whether Collins has learned from the past, writes Joel Sherman. Time will tell whether Collins can turn around the Mets, writes Bill Madden. The choice of Collins is a bold one, writes Ken Davidoff. It's a risk, writes Bob Klapisch, who spoke with Wally Backman about the former second baseman's disappointment about this decision. Collins is the oldest manager hired by the Mets since Casey Stengel.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Derek Jeter and the Yankees haven't gotten down to the nitty-gritty in their talks, writes Brian Costello.
2. Drayton McLane is ready to sell the Astros. The new owners would not have to deal with a lot of dead money on the roster.

3. The Pirates are shaping their coaching staff.

4. The Orioles' first-round draft pick from 2006, who was selected ahead of Tim Lincecum, was left unprotected.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

5. Victor Martinez might or might not be exactly what the Orioles need.

6. Dan Uggla and the Braves are optimistic about an extension.

7. Joaquin Benoit is a great addition for the Tigers' bullpen, writes John Lowe.

8. The Twins rewarded a couple of young players, Joe Christensen writes.

9. The Brewers resumed talks with Rickie Weeks last week.

10. The D-backs are looking at J.J. Putz, writes Mark Gonzales.

11. Paul Hoynes addresses the question of whether Grady Sizemore is on the trading block. I totally agree with what he writes here: Sizemore won't really have a lot of value until he shows he can play -- and it really wouldn't be a good thing for the Indians to just dump him without getting value in return.

12. This will be a big day for Joey Votto, who likely will win the NL MVP award.

13. A big bat needs to be priority No. 1 for the Rockies, writes Troy Renck. I respectfully disagree with Troy, who sees that team daily and knows more than I do. Identifying a starting pitcher to replace Jorge De La Rosa, if he leaves, is more important.

14. It looks as though the Athletics' negotiations with a pitcher from Japan are just about dead, writes Susan Slusser.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
Joe Nathan says he's ready to go. [h3]Notes from the Dakotas[/h3]

Many, many Twins fans came out for the book signings of "How Lucky You Can Be" on Thursday, Friday and Saturday in Sioux Falls, Fargo and Aberdeen, with most of them volunteering that they feel the Twins need to get Zack Greinke or someone like him to beat the Yankees. "Think we have a shot at Cliff Lee?" one of them asked.

But the most remarkable fan we met was a young lady who indicated that she really didn't like baseball that much and that she rooted for one team in particular: the Los Angeles Clippers.

In the middle of the Dakotas.

The Clippers.

She isn't from California. She just likes the Clippers. A Blake Griffin fan.

This is someone who would command Bill Simmons' respect.

Many thanks to all who came out -- we signed about 1,500 books in three days, and on Friday the publisher ordered a third printing.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]

Can you shed some light on the Justin Upton rumors? Will he be dealt? And if so, where do you think he'll go? Jackson Alexander, Vermont

A: Jackson: He's available for the right return. In fact, some GMs are convinced he's going to be moved -- and the question being asked in other front offices is, "Why? Is there a problem? What do the Diamondbacks see in Upton -- who has been regarded as a rising superstar -- that makes them willing to trade him despite the very affordable contract that he worked out with Arizona? Next season will be Year 2 of a six-year, $51.25 million deal. Keep in mind, too, that new Arizona GM Kevin Towers is viewed by other GMs as a very shrewd dealer, someone who is apt to trade a player whose value is more likely to fall than to rise.

The Upton trade rumors are heating up the hot stove talk, writes Nick Piecoro.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Stan Musial turned 90 this past weekend.
Domonic Brown isn't playing much in winter ball, writes Matt Gelb.

Jake Westbrook pitched with an injured shoulder last season.

• Sam Mellinger doesn't think the Cy Young voting for Felix Hernandez has any big-picture implications. King Felix joined Brock and Salk after the announcement.

• Scott Lauber thinks the Red Sox should focus on smaller deals for their bullpen.

C.J. Wilson has taken up car racing, writes Norris McDonald.

• Old friend Peter Gammons can't be having as good a day as I am -- Vanderbilt beat North Carolina.

Of course, Peter knows this: Today will be better than yesterday.

 
The Scottsdale Scorpions won the Arizona Fall League's championship game on Sunday, 3-2, with nearly all the scoring coming early before each team ran out a parade of relievers, including big leaguer Dan Runzler (up to 96 mph with a sharp slider) and the infamous Josh Lueke (92-97 with -- wait for it -- a sharp slider).

Both starters were amped up, but they gave up four of the game's five runs between them; Nationals lefty Sammy Solis showed that he could get ahead of hitters but struggled to put them away, while Astros right-hander Kyle Greenwalt had good sink on his above-average fastball but didn't locate it well.

AFL MVP Dustin Ackley singled off Solis for his only hit in four at-bats. Ackley played in the AFL last year after a full college season followed by a layoff between the draft and the signing deadline, and as a result he looked caught somewhere between exhausted and rusty. This year, he's had more energy, has stayed back on the ball better and has had much better plate discipline. I'm assuming he'll be up in Seattle whenever the front office is happy with his defense at second -- and, perhaps, when the service-time rules permit it.

Bryce Harper was 1-for-4, punching a fastball away to left for a run-scoring single but finishing with two strikeouts on breaking balls down and in; he's looking for something out over the plate even when he's not getting it. Trying to force the issue is probably the result of playing only twice a week, because it's not as though Harper has never seen a quality breaking ball before.

Adam Loewen led all hitters with three hits, but all were soft, two just excuse-me singles to left. He also misplayed a ball at the right-field wall that led to a Scottsdale run. Two shortstops stood out on defense -- Boston's Jose Iglesias, who's still making every play look routine from his hands to his transfer to his throwing, and Colorado's Nate Field, who dove for a deflected grounder to his right with two on and two out, got up and threw a strike to first for a huge out. Also worth noting was Washington catcher Derek Norris, who ran the best home-to-first time I've ever gotten (slightly above-average), received well and showed good instincts on the bases, taking third base on an errant throw from the pitcher to second.

• The other big news of the day was the Rangers' signing of Barret Loux for a $312,000 bonus. Loux was the sixth pick in June's Rule 4 draft but failed his postdraft physical, putting him in a sort of baseball purgatory until MLB agreed to give Arizona a compensatory pick in 2010 while making Loux a free agent. I've been told by multiple sources that Loux has damage in both his elbow and shoulder but reports no pain when throwing, so although the probability of him staying healthy long enough to reach the big leagues isn't very high, the Rangers might want to just let him keep pitching until he says "ow." Once you cut on a shoulder, it's usually never the same anyway.

• Another draft item: UNC suspended star outfielder Brian Goodwin, a potential top-10 pick for 2012, for the 2011 season for "violating University policy," apparently around academics. I see no way Goodwin sits out the 2011 spring; look for him to show up at a junior college -- there are some lovely ones out here in Arizona, Brian -- and enter the first-round picture a year early.

• The dismissal of Mets amateur scouting director Rudy Terrasas was no surprise, as the entire industry expected Sandy Alderson to install his own man in that role. But as important as the identity of Terrasas' replacement is whether Alderson has persuaded the Wilpons to completely abandon their adherence to MLB's slot "recommendations" in the amateur draft.

Before going about $350,000 over slot for their first pick in 2010, the Mets hadn't done so in the first round since 2005 and rarely spent on signability guys after the first few rounds, signing just two such players in the past five drafts for more than $200,000 and neither for more than a half-million. Terrasas' draft record doesn't look great, but he was working with shackles on, and there's really no excuse for a team in the New York market in a taxpayer-funded, cash-cow stadium to cry penury on the first Monday in June.

• The Pirates cut Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young and Zach Duke from their 40-man roster, making them all free agents. Duke was a comical selection for the 2009 All-Star Game; since that point, he has a 5.52 ERA and has given up a .320/.362/.506 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) line. He has a .330 batting average on balls in play in the past five seasons, and at some point, that's not about bad luck or bad defense but a lack of stuff.

LaRoche always took knocks for a questionable work ethic, and although that issue appears to be gone, he can't hit and is so stiff that there doesn't seem to be much chance he will. Young is an interesting bench option, but his lack of any defensive value really limits his market.

• I was asked on Twitter whether players who are Rule 5 draft-eligible but not on the 40-man roster can be protected if they're traded between now and that draft. The answer is no, which is why you'll see some players to be named later in trades during the next few weeks, with those players typically named within a few hours of the draft's conclusion. A team also may work out a deal in which the receiving team can pick one of a list of unprotected players after the draft takes place on the morning of Dec. 9.

• I don't track the Rule 5 draft much, as the last collective bargaining agreement gutted the talent pool, but I did hear that Rule 5-eligible Milwaukee prospect Taylor Green -- the player Cleveland turned down in favor of Michael Brantley as the PTBNL in the CC Sabathia trade -- worked out at catcher in the instructional league and is attracting some attention as a potential convert to the role. Green has struggled with injuries and hasn't hit enough to profile every day at third base.

• I'm not sure about the analytical value of it, but I love seeing the "pace" stat added to FanGraphs' pitcher cards, showing the pitcher's average time between pitches. I'm assuming the "25.9" listed for Daisuke Matsuzaka was minutes rather than seconds, though. There's a reason Fenway concession stands sell No-Doz when he pitches.

• This story is a week old, but the headline on Kansas City Star writer Bob Dutton's article about Jeff Francoeur becoming a free agent speaks volumes. If the hot stove league were a reality show, the first message board comment when the Royals sign Francoeur would be "rigged!"

• Pitch f/x hounds and fans of colorful graphs might enjoy this look at Felix Hernandez's season through pitch f/x data from Beyond the Box Score.

• Baseball Prospectus' David Laurila talked to J.C. Bradbury about his new book, "Hot Stove Economics."

• I don't know whether this sentiment is widespread, but one Tampa Tribune writer is angry that the Rays didn't match Detroit's offer for Joaquin Benoit. Me? If I were a Rays fan, I'd be doing cartwheels that my front office doesn't overpay for middle relievers.
 
http://[h3]
[h3]Is De Le Rosa still a priority in Denver?[/h3]
11:04AM ET

[h5]Jorge De La Rosa | Rockies | Interested: Rockies, Yankees?, Pirates? [/h5]


The market for Jorge De La Rosa appears to be growing, and the Colorado Rockies may let the free agent pitcher walk if he gets an offer of more than three years.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported last week the Rockies are not prepared to get into a bidding war for De La Rosa and will bow out if the offer is for four years or more.

Renck adds Monday that a higher priority for the Rockies should be to acquire a No. 5 hitter such as Justin Upton.

If De La Rosa finds greener pastures, the Rockies will be looking to fill a hole in their rotation through trade or free agents. One possible target is Gavin Floyd, who reportedly could be shopped by the White Sox.

Multiple teams have expressed interest in De La Rosa, including the Pirates, who have the southpaw set as their top target. The Nationals and Orioles also are in the hunt.

De La Rosa, who went 8-7 with a 4.22 ERA this season, could ask for a four- or five-year contract after the Dodgers' http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4062Ted Lilly signed a three-year, $33 million deal.

- Doug Mittler

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
The Book on De La Rosa
"De La Rosa walks too many guys and he's only thrown more than 140 innings in a professional season once. He's injury-prone (non-arm; he lost two months to a finger in 2010), but his changeup is plus, and his slider is above-average. If you want a power arm with some potential development remaining, he's a good pickup."
[/h3]

http://[h3]$23M a year for Lee?[/h3]
10:56AM ET

[h5]Cliff Lee | Rangers [/h5]


Exactly how expensive will it be to land Cliff Lee? Perhaps $23 million to $24 million per year.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote Sunday that "Word is the Yankees are in the $115 million-$120 million range for five years, while the Rangers are determined to match whatever it gets up to. The Nationals are another team aggressive in this hunt."

Rangers president Nolan Ryan said last week he believed that his club would be outbid for Lee, so Cafardo's comments would be a change of course. But five years and $120 million may be a figure the Rangers can handle, though it's very early in the process and things can change in a hurry.

Up until now, any talk of a Lee contract has been compared to the seven-year, $161 million deal the Yankees gave to CC Sabathia a few years ago. Sabathia earns $23 million per season, but has a longer deal than Lee is expected to get.

Meanwhile, the agent for Lee insists that the pursuit of the free agent left-hander is more than just a two-horse race. "There has been significant interest from a multitude of teams," Darek Braunecker told ESPNNewYork.com.

Ryan is hoping that geography helps his club retain Lee as Arlington is just hours from Lee's Arkansas home.

Along with the Yankees and Rangers, the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationalsWashington Nationals have publicly acknowledged they have called or met with Braunecker. Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com says other teams believed to have some level of interest include the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-philliesPhiladelphia Phillies, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox and the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubsChicago Cubs.

At this stage, look for Lee to enjoy his Thanksgiving at home and for talks to heat up at the winter meetings next month in Florida.

- Doug Mittler

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[h5]Baseball Prospectus[/h5]
Lee to the Bronx
"Lee had a less-than-ideal World Series, yes, but this is a Sabathia-level no-brainer as signings go. It's obvious and it's predictable, and indeed, by trading for Javier Vazquez to fit into that one-year budget slot, it was even more obvious and predictable. The Yankees have the financial muscle to add another player in the $20 million-plus price range, not just because they're shedding Vazquez's expense, but also because they can pitch the rest of the Core Four to take paycuts in their (less) golden years, just as Andy Pettitte has already done the last two."- Christina Kahrl

http://[h3]Bartlett could impact any Scutaro deal[/h3]
10:37AM ET

[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox are in the market for bullpen help, and one trading chip could be shortstop Marco Scutaro.

According to various reports, including one by Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, the Red Sox are open to trading Scutaro for the right part and that multiple teams are showing interest. Jed Lowrie would take over at shortstop if the Sox trade Scutaro, with the team presumably strengthening another area.

Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, however, writes that the availability of Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett on the trade market could impact Boston's ability to deal Scutaro.

Sean McAdam of CSNEE.com reports that Scutaro has attracted interest from a half-dozen clubs. Scutaro's trade value is helped by a very affordable salary of $5 million for next season.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Minaya in demand?[/h3]
10:24AM ET

[h5]Omar Minaya [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Omar Minaya took the fall for another subpar year by the New York Mets when he was fired as general manager shortly after a fourth straight non-playoff season.

Even if Minaya is part of the national unemployment rate of about 9.6%, he has no immediate financial worries. He is guaranteed annual salaries of $1.1 million for 2011 and 2012 as part of the contract extension he signed with New York in 2008.

Minaya's services may also be in demand, even if he is talking things slow. "I have many offers for different positions, including a few as assistant general manager, but I'm in no hurry," Minaya said Sunday to ESPNdeportes.com

This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Arizona Diamondbacks had offered Minaya a position as special assistant to the team's GM Kevin Towers. Minaya's strength is as a talent evaluator and not as an administrator or team spokesman, so he would fit in nicely to many team's scouting staff.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Paying Joey Votto[/h3]
10:09AM ET

[h5]Joey Votto | Reds [/h5]


A member of the Cincinnati Reds has not been named National League Most Valuable Player since Barry Larkin in 1995.

First baseman Joey Votto is a serious contender for the 2010 award which will be announced Monday afternoon, but he will have to dethrone Albert Pujols of the Cardinals in the process.

Whether Votto wins or not, the Reds have the 27-year-old under contract control for at least three more years. As much as the Reds would love to have Votto win the award, the MVP designation will make him even more expensive when it comes time for talks on a multi-year contract. Votto, who made $550,000 this season, is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Duke a fit with Tribe, Astros, Phils?[/h3]
9:51AM ET

[h5]Zach Duke | Pirates [/h5]


Left-hander Zach Duke was designated for assignment Friday by the Pittsburgh Pirates after attempts to negotiate a reduced-salary contract and trade the 27-year-old failed.

It's easy to see why the Pirates let Duke go, considering their financial state -- Duke was due a raise through arbitration after making $4.3 million next season and could have earned as much a $6 million in 2011.

But Duke should find work this winter without issue, despite the poor win-loss record and a ballooned ERA. By measures of most advanced statistics, Duke has pitched much better than the 5.72 ERA he posted in 2010, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com pointed out via Twitter.

Stephen Goff of the Houston Chronicle wrote Friday that Duke fits the profile of the No. 4 or 5 starter the Houston Astros are seeking this winter, and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer believes Duke is a potential fit with the Indians.

Matt Gelb of the Philly Inquirer writes that the Phillies could be interested in order to increase the competition at the back end of the rotation. The Phillies, however, might be willing to offer only a non-guaranteed deal, and Duke may balk at that.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Sizemore's trade value[/h3]
9:35AM ET

[h5]Grady Sizemore | Indians [/h5]


The free agent sweepstakes are in full swing, but don't forget those players will hit the market following the 2011 season. We know all about Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, who could be shopped this winter in an effort to get reasonable value in return.

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo said last week that the trade bait could include Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore, who is coming off two-injury plagued seasons.

The Indians traded Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee well before they reached fee agency, a policy that theoretically could continue with Sizemore. Sizemore will earn $7.5 million next season and has an $8.5 million club option for 2012 that becomes a player option if he is traded.

Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer disagrees, saying Sizemore has no real trade value until he's able to rebound from the microfracture surgery on his left knee and play in 2011.

Our Buster Olney has a similar take:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Sizemore on the block?
"Sizemore won't really have a lot of value until he shows he can play -- and it really isn't a good thing for the Indians to just dump him, without getting value in return."

http://[h3]Astros an attractive sell?[/h3]
9:24AM ET

[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]


Whispers of Drayton McLane's desire to sell the Houston Astros have been heard on and off for years. McLane may be serious this time, and he may have picked a perfect time to sell.

Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle reported Friday that McLane has retained the services of the investment bank Allen & Company to assist in the sale of the club.

The Allen & Company includes Steve Greenberg, the son of Baseball Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg who is considered one of the foremost brokers of deals in sports. Greenberg could help get top dollar for McLane, who has owned the team since 1992.

The Astros could sell for a figure in the range of $700 million to $800 million.

The team is even more attractive after it recently announced plans to launch a new regional sports network in partnership with the NBA's Rockets and Comcast.

Levine also reported over the weekend that the Astros should be relatively devoid of future payroll when McLane completes his sale of the team. The post-2011 Astros will be clear of what remains on Roy Oswalt's contract and have only one year left on Carlos Lee's megadeal. That makes the Astros even more attractive to potential owners.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Collins last in New York?[/h3]
9:10AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


Almost six weeks after firing Jerry Manuel, the New York Mets have decided on Terry Collins, as their next manager, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reported Sunday afternoon.

New GM Sandy Alderson took his time before making a decision and apparently will go with Collins, who served as the organization's minor league field coordinator this past season. He previously managed the Houston Astros from 1994 to 1996 and the then-Anaheim Angels from 1997 to 1999, compiling a 444-434 record.

Collins and former D-backs manager Bob Melvin were considered the front-runners for the job. Third base coach Chip Hale and Wally Backman also were finalists for the job.

Collins' candidacy was likely helped by the recent hiring of former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta to a front office position. DePodesta continues to have a high opinion of Collins and tried to hire him as manager in Los Angeles.

How will the hiring be viewed in a tough media market like New York? Hall of Fame writer Bill Maddden is skeptical. "There is nothing to suggest he isn't just another retread manager and not the kind of difference-maker the organization so desperately needs," Madden writes.

Our Buster Olney gives his take and wonders of Collins' sometimes intense personality will be an issue:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Is Collins a fit in NY?
"If he's the same, that's going to be a problem. The fans and media of New York are always flammable, even in the best of times, reacting and overreacting to two- and three-game losing streaks, and any manager who consistently fuels that with anger -- at his players, at losses -- will not last. Ever. A snappy, curt remark about a player's mistake might not be that big of a deal in other places, but in New York it can become a back-page story for days at a time."

http://[h3]Hurdle brings back Searage[/h3]
9:01AM ET

[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]


New Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has decided on four members of his staff, including Ray Searage as pitching coach, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette.

Kovakevic says Hurdle has decided on Searage as pitching coach, Gregg Ritchie as hitting coach, Jeff Banister as third base coach and Nick Leyva as bench coach. Searage replaced the fired Joe Kerrigan in August and, by all accounts, made a strong impression on the team's staff.

The rest of the staff is still being decided. There is speculation that Hurdle will find a spot for Andy Hawkins, who worked on the same staff with Hurdle in Texas this season. Hawkins was the bullpen coach.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Mets may bring back Mookie[/h3]
8:39AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


The New York Mets passed on Wally Backman when choosing a manager, but may add at least one member of their 1986 World Series championship team to their coaching staff.

Andy Martino of the Daily News reports that the Mets will definitely consider Mookie Wilson for a coaching position under Terry Collins.

Wilson, a Met from 1980-1989, coached first for the team from 1997-2002.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Jeter get his locker back?[/h3]
8:31AM ET

[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees gave away Derek Jeter's locker.

Yankee Stadium was the site of another Notre Dame-Army college football clash over the weekend, and the Fighting Irish, as the designated home team, used the Yankees locker room. QB Tommy Rees was thrilled to be assigned Jeter's locker.

Jeter and his representatives appear far less thrilled with the pace of their contract negotiations. Jeter's agent, Casey Close, told the Daily News' Mike Lupica over the weekend that he found the Yankees' strategy "baffling." Meanwhile, the Daily News cites an unidentified source who says the Yankees' "ambush" negotiations could backfire.

Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com last week cited a source who says the Yankees would be happy to get Jeter to agree to a three-year contract for $21 million a year. But Jeter, the source said, wants at least a four-year deal, preferably five or six. In addition, there is at least one voice inside the Yankees' hierarchy urging the front office to play hard ball with Jeter.

Mark Feinsand does the math in Friday's New York Daily News and says the two sides are $50 million apart.

The Yankees are hinting that the 36-year-old Jeter, who is coming off the worst season of his career, should realize that he will get nothing close to what the Yankees are offering should he test the open market. The Yankees, however, are fearful of fan backlash and a public relations nightmare if they let Jeter go.

Feinsand says Jeter would attract no more than a two-year deal for a total of $20 million if he hit the open market. Jeter has completed a 10-year, $189 million contract, earning $100 million of that over the past five years.

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The Jeter negotiations
"Do not assume, then, that the Yankees feel obligated to Jeter to pay him in the way that they paid Alex Rodriguez; rather, they are intent on not repeating the mistake of investing huge dollars in an aging player. They want to keep Jeter, and they are willing to pay him more than any other team will pay him. But the Steinbrenner sons are in a completely different time and place for these negotiations than they were when they gave a blank check to Rodriguez."

http://[h3]Iwakuma wants Zito money[/h3]
8:09AM ET

[h5]Hisashi Iwakuma [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Oakland Athletics won the rights to Hisashi Iwakuma but the right-hander is apparently asking for a contract similar to the deal the San Francisco Giants handed Barry Zito -- 7 years, $126 million -- which is more than twice what Daisuke Matsuzaka received from the Boston Red Sox.

The San Francisco Chronicle was the first to report that talks have broken off between Iwakuma and the A's. Oakland's winning bid was about $17 million, according to numerous reports, but it's a check the A's won't have to write if they cannot come to an agreement with the pitcher.

The two sides have until December 8 to work something out or Iwakuma will head back to Japan for 2011. The A's have traded right-hander Vin Mazzaro to the Kansas City Royals since winning the big on Iwakuma, but whether or not the club moved forward with that deal as a result of adding Iwakuma to the depth chart is unknown.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Any options for Peterson?[/h3]
8:03AM ET

[h5]Rick Peterson [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The chances of Rick Peterson landing a job as a big league pitching coach next season are dwindling.

The Brewers and new manager Ron Roenicke decided not to bring back the eccentric Peterson, who had one year left on this contract. The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are the only teams yet to settle on a pitching coach for next season.

Peterson's previous job was with the Mets and he has ties to the new regime of Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, and J.P. Ricciardi from their Oakland days. It will be interesting to see if new Mets manager Terry Collins is interested in Peterson. The guess here is that they stay with Dan Warthen, the pitching coach last season.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Trade ideas for Upton[/h3]
7:54AM ET

[h5]Justin Upton | Diamondbacks | Interested: Mariners?, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals?, Yankees? [/h5]


Several outlets are reporting that at least a handful of clubs have more than tire-kicking interest in trading for Justin Upton -- including the Boston Globe -- and while we can't be sure what exactly it would take for clubs to land the 23-year-old outfielder, it's certainly worth a look into some of those organizations to see what's there that the Arizona Diamondbacks may request in return.

Boston Red Sox
We have to assume that Towers will require young pitching as a major part of any package deal, and the Red Sox have arms to spare if they deem said pitching expendable. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester may be off limits, but prospects Casey Kelley and Stolmy Pimentel might be on the table.

The Red Sox could also offer a first base prospect such as Anthony Rizzo or Lars Anderson, outfielders Ryan Kalish and/or Jacoby Ellsbury and perhaps shortstop Jed Lowrie. Lowrie's inclusion could give Towers the flexibility to move Stephen Drew for even more pitching.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart, as well as young arms such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero that could headline a deal to land Upton. Catcher Travis d'Arnaud could be among the prospects involved, as could young right fielder Travis Snider, a power bat that could be quite attractive for the Diamondbacks.

It seems unlikely that catcher J.P. Arencibia could be included; the Jays may have to lean on the youngster in 2011 and beyond and the D-backs have Miguel Montero under club control for two more years.

New York Yankees
The Yankees could always lead off with Jesus Montero, which could catch the eye of the Diamondbacks, but reports are that the club plans on using Montero on the 25-man roster next year as a part-time catcher and designated hitter.

Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos are the Yankees' top two pitching prospects, but the system may not be deep enough to satisfy Arizona's demands, especially if Montero is off limits.

Seattle Mariners
Seattle is another club that lacks depth in the farm system, but leading off with right-hander Michael Pineda and perhaps centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, who is signed through 2013 with an option for 2014 at more than reasonable salaries and is considered among the very best defenders at his position in all of baseball.

Prospects such as second baseman Dustin Ackley and shortstop Nick Franklin may come up in conversation, but it could take both, on top of Pineda and others, to get the Diamondbacks to take the Mariners seriously.

Kansas City Royals
If Towers is demanding two young and inexpensive frontline starting pitchers, the Royals could accommodate by discussing names such as Mike Montgomery, Noel Arguelles, John Lamb and Aaron Crow. Even closer Joakim Soria could be dangled in such a deal and be deemed a valuable piece of a package since he's just 26 and signed through 2011 with three affordable club options.

The Royals also boast talent at other spots on the diamond, including first base where Eric Hosmer may be the top prospect at his position and among the Top 10 in the game overall. The Royals may be more willing to move Mike Moustakas than Hosmer, however, and Wil Myers is another player Towers could request. The Royals, however, are one of four clubs on Upton's no-trade list.

- Jason A. Churchill

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Can Upton be dealt?
"The Diamondbacks turned the hot stove upside down this week with word that they'd consider Upton for the right deal, and I have since spoken with several senior executives from other clubs who indicated that the price is probably high but he is indeed available. He's an above-average defender in right field with a strong arm, and I think it's possible he could return to center field if he's traded, since he was moved to right to accommodate Chris Young and not through any failing of his own."

 
In my first job out of college, I covered the Triple-A Nashville Sounds at the Nashville Banner. Frank Lucchesi was the manager of the team that year, 1989, and after losses he was relaxed as he answered questions and explained the decisions he had made.

But when the Buffalo Bisons came to town for the first time, it was a very different experience going into their clubhouse after a loss. As the players ate their postgame meal in front of their lockers, nobody uttered a word -- nobody. I went into the manager's office, and invariably he would be leaning on a pen, going through postgame paperwork -- writing his reports, I presume -- and he was never rude, but his intensity was unbelievable. I've never seen any manager quite like that since.

He would answer my questions directly, addressing mistakes that the Bisons had made, but I always thought that with one inarticulate or stupid question, I might set him off like a stick of dynamite. In a sport in which maintaining an even keel and in coping with the inherent daily failures -- a bad at-bat, a bad pitch, an error, a defeat -- that type of demeanor was, and is, very unusual.

That was the first time I met Terry Collins, and I'd bump into him from time to time. He was always pleasant and chatty and invested in what he was doing, and others would tell you that there could be no doubting his acumen, his extraordinary understanding of the sport.

He later became the manager of the Angels, and by chance, in the time I was covering the Yankees, he was replaced on a day when New York was in Anaheim. I went to the news conference with other reporters, and Collins was extremely emotional, devastated, like a man who'd been gnawed from the inside by what had happened in his clubhouse.

So when Collins emerged as a managerial candidate with the Mets, my first instinct -- as someone who has seen Collins work and as someone who covered the Mets and Yankees -- is that he couldn't possibly fit in New York unless he had changed dramatically through his experience.

And now the Mets have chosen him to be their next manager, writes David Waldstein.

It's quite possible that Collins has changed. Others have. If you watch clips of Joe Torre in his first years as manager, he was much more reactive and volatile than the calm person we saw on the bench in his Yankees years. Players and managers evolve, as we all can.

If Collins is the same, that will be a problem. The fans and media of New York are always flammable, even in the best of times, reacting and overreacting to two- and three-game losing streaks. Any manager who consistently fuels that with anger -- at his players, at losses -- will not last. Ever. A snappy, curt remark about a player's mistake might not be that big a deal in other places, but in New York it can become a back-page story for days. A manager who lets defeat eat at him will not last, and without a healthy Johan Santana, the Mets may lose a lot next year.

Lest there be any doubt, Collins is more than smart enough to adapt. He certainly will recognize the pitfalls as he starts out. The question is whether he's changed enough to survive. One thing is almost certain: Terry Collins, as good a baseball man as there is, will be an overwhelming success or a complete disaster.

The selection of Collins reflects the power -- actually, considering the personalities involved, the word "influence" might be more appropriate than "power" -- of Paul DePodesta, the Mets' vice president of player development and scouting. DePodesta has a seven-figure salary as the No. 2 guy in Mets baseball operations, an extraordinary investment by Sandy Alderson and a reflection of how highly he regards DePodesta.

The big question is whether Collins has learned from the past, writes Joel Sherman. Time will tell whether Collins can turn around the Mets, writes Bill Madden. The choice of Collins is a bold one, writes Ken Davidoff. It's a risk, writes Bob Klapisch, who spoke with Wally Backman about the former second baseman's disappointment about this decision. Collins is the oldest manager hired by the Mets since Casey Stengel.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Derek Jeter and the Yankees haven't gotten down to the nitty-gritty in their talks, writes Brian Costello.
2. Drayton McLane is ready to sell the Astros. The new owners would not have to deal with a lot of dead money on the roster.

3. The Pirates are shaping their coaching staff.

4. The Orioles' first-round draft pick from 2006, who was selected ahead of Tim Lincecum, was left unprotected.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

5. Victor Martinez might or might not be exactly what the Orioles need.

6. Dan Uggla and the Braves are optimistic about an extension.

7. Joaquin Benoit is a great addition for the Tigers' bullpen, writes John Lowe.

8. The Twins rewarded a couple of young players, Joe Christensen writes.

9. The Brewers resumed talks with Rickie Weeks last week.

10. The D-backs are looking at J.J. Putz, writes Mark Gonzales.

11. Paul Hoynes addresses the question of whether Grady Sizemore is on the trading block. I totally agree with what he writes here: Sizemore won't really have a lot of value until he shows he can play -- and it really wouldn't be a good thing for the Indians to just dump him without getting value in return.

12. This will be a big day for Joey Votto, who likely will win the NL MVP award.

13. A big bat needs to be priority No. 1 for the Rockies, writes Troy Renck. I respectfully disagree with Troy, who sees that team daily and knows more than I do. Identifying a starting pitcher to replace Jorge De La Rosa, if he leaves, is more important.

14. It looks as though the Athletics' negotiations with a pitcher from Japan are just about dead, writes Susan Slusser.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
Joe Nathan says he's ready to go. [h3]Notes from the Dakotas[/h3]

Many, many Twins fans came out for the book signings of "How Lucky You Can Be" on Thursday, Friday and Saturday in Sioux Falls, Fargo and Aberdeen, with most of them volunteering that they feel the Twins need to get Zack Greinke or someone like him to beat the Yankees. "Think we have a shot at Cliff Lee?" one of them asked.

But the most remarkable fan we met was a young lady who indicated that she really didn't like baseball that much and that she rooted for one team in particular: the Los Angeles Clippers.

In the middle of the Dakotas.

The Clippers.

She isn't from California. She just likes the Clippers. A Blake Griffin fan.

This is someone who would command Bill Simmons' respect.

Many thanks to all who came out -- we signed about 1,500 books in three days, and on Friday the publisher ordered a third printing.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]

Can you shed some light on the Justin Upton rumors? Will he be dealt? And if so, where do you think he'll go? Jackson Alexander, Vermont

A: Jackson: He's available for the right return. In fact, some GMs are convinced he's going to be moved -- and the question being asked in other front offices is, "Why? Is there a problem? What do the Diamondbacks see in Upton -- who has been regarded as a rising superstar -- that makes them willing to trade him despite the very affordable contract that he worked out with Arizona? Next season will be Year 2 of a six-year, $51.25 million deal. Keep in mind, too, that new Arizona GM Kevin Towers is viewed by other GMs as a very shrewd dealer, someone who is apt to trade a player whose value is more likely to fall than to rise.

The Upton trade rumors are heating up the hot stove talk, writes Nick Piecoro.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Stan Musial turned 90 this past weekend.
Domonic Brown isn't playing much in winter ball, writes Matt Gelb.

Jake Westbrook pitched with an injured shoulder last season.

• Sam Mellinger doesn't think the Cy Young voting for Felix Hernandez has any big-picture implications. King Felix joined Brock and Salk after the announcement.

• Scott Lauber thinks the Red Sox should focus on smaller deals for their bullpen.

C.J. Wilson has taken up car racing, writes Norris McDonald.

• Old friend Peter Gammons can't be having as good a day as I am -- Vanderbilt beat North Carolina.

Of course, Peter knows this: Today will be better than yesterday.

 
The Scottsdale Scorpions won the Arizona Fall League's championship game on Sunday, 3-2, with nearly all the scoring coming early before each team ran out a parade of relievers, including big leaguer Dan Runzler (up to 96 mph with a sharp slider) and the infamous Josh Lueke (92-97 with -- wait for it -- a sharp slider).

Both starters were amped up, but they gave up four of the game's five runs between them; Nationals lefty Sammy Solis showed that he could get ahead of hitters but struggled to put them away, while Astros right-hander Kyle Greenwalt had good sink on his above-average fastball but didn't locate it well.

AFL MVP Dustin Ackley singled off Solis for his only hit in four at-bats. Ackley played in the AFL last year after a full college season followed by a layoff between the draft and the signing deadline, and as a result he looked caught somewhere between exhausted and rusty. This year, he's had more energy, has stayed back on the ball better and has had much better plate discipline. I'm assuming he'll be up in Seattle whenever the front office is happy with his defense at second -- and, perhaps, when the service-time rules permit it.

Bryce Harper was 1-for-4, punching a fastball away to left for a run-scoring single but finishing with two strikeouts on breaking balls down and in; he's looking for something out over the plate even when he's not getting it. Trying to force the issue is probably the result of playing only twice a week, because it's not as though Harper has never seen a quality breaking ball before.

Adam Loewen led all hitters with three hits, but all were soft, two just excuse-me singles to left. He also misplayed a ball at the right-field wall that led to a Scottsdale run. Two shortstops stood out on defense -- Boston's Jose Iglesias, who's still making every play look routine from his hands to his transfer to his throwing, and Colorado's Nate Field, who dove for a deflected grounder to his right with two on and two out, got up and threw a strike to first for a huge out. Also worth noting was Washington catcher Derek Norris, who ran the best home-to-first time I've ever gotten (slightly above-average), received well and showed good instincts on the bases, taking third base on an errant throw from the pitcher to second.

• The other big news of the day was the Rangers' signing of Barret Loux for a $312,000 bonus. Loux was the sixth pick in June's Rule 4 draft but failed his postdraft physical, putting him in a sort of baseball purgatory until MLB agreed to give Arizona a compensatory pick in 2010 while making Loux a free agent. I've been told by multiple sources that Loux has damage in both his elbow and shoulder but reports no pain when throwing, so although the probability of him staying healthy long enough to reach the big leagues isn't very high, the Rangers might want to just let him keep pitching until he says "ow." Once you cut on a shoulder, it's usually never the same anyway.

• Another draft item: UNC suspended star outfielder Brian Goodwin, a potential top-10 pick for 2012, for the 2011 season for "violating University policy," apparently around academics. I see no way Goodwin sits out the 2011 spring; look for him to show up at a junior college -- there are some lovely ones out here in Arizona, Brian -- and enter the first-round picture a year early.

• The dismissal of Mets amateur scouting director Rudy Terrasas was no surprise, as the entire industry expected Sandy Alderson to install his own man in that role. But as important as the identity of Terrasas' replacement is whether Alderson has persuaded the Wilpons to completely abandon their adherence to MLB's slot "recommendations" in the amateur draft.

Before going about $350,000 over slot for their first pick in 2010, the Mets hadn't done so in the first round since 2005 and rarely spent on signability guys after the first few rounds, signing just two such players in the past five drafts for more than $200,000 and neither for more than a half-million. Terrasas' draft record doesn't look great, but he was working with shackles on, and there's really no excuse for a team in the New York market in a taxpayer-funded, cash-cow stadium to cry penury on the first Monday in June.

• The Pirates cut Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young and Zach Duke from their 40-man roster, making them all free agents. Duke was a comical selection for the 2009 All-Star Game; since that point, he has a 5.52 ERA and has given up a .320/.362/.506 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) line. He has a .330 batting average on balls in play in the past five seasons, and at some point, that's not about bad luck or bad defense but a lack of stuff.

LaRoche always took knocks for a questionable work ethic, and although that issue appears to be gone, he can't hit and is so stiff that there doesn't seem to be much chance he will. Young is an interesting bench option, but his lack of any defensive value really limits his market.

• I was asked on Twitter whether players who are Rule 5 draft-eligible but not on the 40-man roster can be protected if they're traded between now and that draft. The answer is no, which is why you'll see some players to be named later in trades during the next few weeks, with those players typically named within a few hours of the draft's conclusion. A team also may work out a deal in which the receiving team can pick one of a list of unprotected players after the draft takes place on the morning of Dec. 9.

• I don't track the Rule 5 draft much, as the last collective bargaining agreement gutted the talent pool, but I did hear that Rule 5-eligible Milwaukee prospect Taylor Green -- the player Cleveland turned down in favor of Michael Brantley as the PTBNL in the CC Sabathia trade -- worked out at catcher in the instructional league and is attracting some attention as a potential convert to the role. Green has struggled with injuries and hasn't hit enough to profile every day at third base.

• I'm not sure about the analytical value of it, but I love seeing the "pace" stat added to FanGraphs' pitcher cards, showing the pitcher's average time between pitches. I'm assuming the "25.9" listed for Daisuke Matsuzaka was minutes rather than seconds, though. There's a reason Fenway concession stands sell No-Doz when he pitches.

• This story is a week old, but the headline on Kansas City Star writer Bob Dutton's article about Jeff Francoeur becoming a free agent speaks volumes. If the hot stove league were a reality show, the first message board comment when the Royals sign Francoeur would be "rigged!"

• Pitch f/x hounds and fans of colorful graphs might enjoy this look at Felix Hernandez's season through pitch f/x data from Beyond the Box Score.

• Baseball Prospectus' David Laurila talked to J.C. Bradbury about his new book, "Hot Stove Economics."

• I don't know whether this sentiment is widespread, but one Tampa Tribune writer is angry that the Rays didn't match Detroit's offer for Joaquin Benoit. Me? If I were a Rays fan, I'd be doing cartwheels that my front office doesn't overpay for middle relievers.
 
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