Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.

[proshares]

The New York Post confirmed Wednesday what everyone in baseball has long understood:

The Texas Rangers are not going to just send Cliff Lee a thanks-for-the-memories note and let him cruise into the Bronx unobstructed this winter.

No, the Rangers are going to at least make Lee think about this. And if they're willing to throw a five-year deal at him, as the Post report suggested, that ought to get those brain cells churning.

And then, after he's finished thinking, the New York Yankees will do what everyone in baseball also has long understood:

Ring the cash register -- and hand Lee his pinstripes.

[h4]Cliff Lee[/h4][h5]#33 SP
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS

• GM28
• W12
• L9
• BB18
• K185
• ERA3.18

Now maybe we have this wrong, but if we do, we're not the only ones. We surveyed a couple of longtime baseball executives Wednesday morning. And they mostly got a good chuckle out of the latest Cliff Lee blockbuster.

"When it's all said and done," one said, "he's gotta go to New York."

"I think it's all [baloney]," said another.

Asked whether he thought even a five-year offer by the Rangers would keep the Yankees from getting a player they've been pretty much obsessed with for months, the same exec retorted, pithily: "Just look at history."

And by that, he doesn't mean: Go take a tour of Monument Garden.

What he means is: When the Yankees decide they have to sign any free agent, do they ever not get their man?

Excellent point. So, sometime this month, we're predicting once again, the Yankees will hand Lee his Powerball check. At that point, the free-agent starting pitcher market can officially be declared a complete disaster area.

But then, come to think of it, for all teams not known as "The Yankees," it already is.

[h4]Carl Pavano[/h4][h5]#48 SP
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS

• GM32
• W17
• L11
• BB37
• K117
• ERA3.75

There's Carl Pavano -- who seems positioned to get a three-year deal for at least the Ted Lilly-esque money (three years, $33 million) he's seeking. And then there's everyone else -- the One-Year Contract Good Luck With This Group All-Stars.

"What you've got," said an executive of one team that's still fishing in this lake, "is just a bunch of guys where you hope you strike lightning in a bottle."

Other than Pavano -- and Andy Pettitte, who could do his annual Swallow Returns to Yankee-strano thing within the next week -- all the Best of the Rest starters are gone. Lilly … Jon Garland … Jorge De La Rosa … Hiroki Kuroda … Jake Westbrook … Javier Vazquez. All signed up and off the shelves.

So what's left? A bunch of guys with, well, issues. Some of those issues, the same exec said, "are stuff-related. Some are injury-related. Some are makeup-related. But they're there. And that's why these guys are where they're at."

Of course, we should point out that some teams actually kind of like shopping in this sort of market -- because at least the deals, even if they turn into debacles, are short.

"So there are really two ways to look at it," said an official of one of those teams. "Say you have young pitching coming, but you're not sure if it's going to be ready at the start of the year. Then you go out and sign one of these guys for one year, and it makes the decision for you. And there are enough reclamation projects, rebound guys and inning-eater types left that you should be able to sign one of them to a shorter-term deal."

Ah, but which pitchers in this group should you be taking a chance on? Here are five who seem to inspire the most interest in the people we've surveyed:

Webb

Brandon Webb -- The baggage: He has pitched just four innings in two years and never did make it back last season from his August 2009 shoulder-debridement surgery. The reason for inspiration: The three previous years, he ripped off three straight top-two finishes in the NL Cy Young voting. So there's a lot of lightning in that bottle. "There's a whole lot of medical reports you have to look at," one exec said. "But if the medicals say he's healthy, I mean, the guy won 22 games the last year he pitched. So he'd have to be near the top of anybody's list."

Chris Young -- The baggage: He has spent 276 days on the disabled list the past two years with shoulder trouble. The reason for inspiration: He came back in September and made four excellent starts (2-0, 0.90 ERA, 20 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 15 K). "Unlike a lot of these guys," said one of the execs quoted earlier, "at least he was pitching at the end of the year." His home/road splits (2.85 career ERA at Petco Park, 4.31 everywhere else) are a concern. "But there's also some deception there," another exec said. So Young could be gobbled up by one of the half-dozen teams chasing him within a week.

Millwood

Kevin Millwood -- The baggage: Coming off an ugly 4-16, 5.10 season in Baltimore, with a 1.51 WHIP that was the second worst (next to Aaron Harang) of any free-agent starter. The reason for inspiration: At least he's durable. He and Vazquez were the only starters on this market who have started at least 20 games in 13 straight seasons. "If he goes someplace as a No. 4 or 5 starter -- and not as a No. 1, which the Orioles wanted him to be -- he looks a lot better," one exec said. "And never discount the fact he was pitching last year in the AL East."

Jeremy Bonderman -- The baggage: Has never made it all the way back from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. Had the highest ERA (5.53) of any free-agent starter last year and, in fact, is one of only 24 starting pitchers who has had more than one season with an ERA of 5.50 or higher. The reason for inspiration: Still only 28 years old. "He's a guy with a chance to step forward because of his age," one scout said. "And he's starting to learn an appreciation of the art of pitching. I saw more velocity in the second half, and occasionally better life on his fastball." And, as one NL exec pointed out, "he's always been in the American League. I think there's a chance his stuff could play up in the National League. So you could do more dreaming on him."

[h4]TRIVIALITY[/h4]

The human trivia answer, Javy Vazquez, just ripped off his 13th straight season with more than 150 innings pitched. Only two other innings-eaters who were active in 2010 have had a streak that long (or longer) at any point in their careers. Can you name them? (Answer later.)

Kevin Correia -- The baggage: Had a 5.40 ERA as a Padre and even had a 5.36 ERA in Petco last year. The reason for inspiration: He, Lee, Pettitte and Pavano are the only remaining free agents who racked up double-figure wins in each of the past two seasons. And he had to pitch while dealing with a crushing family tragedy last season. "Obviously, he's been somewhat inconsistent for a lot of his career," one exec said. "But he did a good job there for a long stretch. And everyone is aware of what he was going through last year. So you have to factor that in."

Other names who got votes: Freddy Garcia, Vicente Padilla, Jeff Francis, Scott Olsen, David Bush, Bruce Chen, Rodrigo Lopez, Brandon McCarthy.
Names on the Let Somebody Else Take a Shot List: Harang, Rich Harden, Brad Penny, Erik Bedard, Brian Bannister. [h3]Ready to Rumble[/h3]
[h4]Carl Crawford[/h4][h5]#13 LF
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS

• GM154
• HR19
• RBI90
• R110
• OBP.356
• AVG.307

• The industry was buzzing early this week with rumblings that the Angels were trying to zero in and get Rafael Soriano signed before the winter meetings. But clubs and agents who have spoken with them in the past 24 hours report they've now put their closer hunt on the back burner and have made Carl Crawford their No. 1 target.
"I didn't get any indication that [signing Soriano] is about to happen right now," one source said. "That's not the priority." The Angels' M.O. under owner Arte Moreno has been to home in on players they want, try to get a deal done fast and move on. But Soriano is a Scott Boras client, so he doesn't fit the classic Angels drive-thru signing mode.
The Crawford negotiations also are expected to drag into winter meetings week. But if it becomes a circus or an auction, the Angels won't wait around for him, either. Meanwhile, indications are that they've shown very little interest in Jayson Werth -- at least so far.

[h4]Carlos Quentin[/h4][h5]#20 RF
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS

• GM131
• HR26
• RBI87
• R73
• OBP.342
• AVG.243

• The Chicago White Sox continue to say they're not "shopping" Carlos Quentin. But teams that have kicked the tires say they are listening.

With the potential departure of A.J. Pierzynski, their lineup is in danger of becoming way too right-handed. So to move Quentin, they've told other clubs they would want a young left-handed bat with similar "high-ceiling talent" -- and someone they could hang on to for more than the two years they can control Quentin.

In the case of a team such as the Philadelphia Phillies, who we hear have talked themselves out of making a run at Quentin, that would translate into a package led by left-handed thumper Domonic Brown. So you can scratch the Phillies off the White Sox list. But Quentin remains a name to keep an eye on this winter.

• You can decide for yourself what this means about how likely the Boston Red Sox think they are to bring back Adrian Beltre or deal for Adrian Gonzalez, but we're hearing that Kevin Youkilis plans to spend his offseason working out mostly at third base.

According to one friend of Youkilis, he told the Red Sox last season that he's happy to play third or first -- but that if he's going to play third, he would want a whole offseason to gear up to do it. So "he's preparing himself if they go in that direction."

And the increasing sense we get is that even the Red Sox aren't sure yet what that direction is. Their game plan, according to one AL executive, is clearly to "keep as many balls in the air for as long as they can" -- until they get a better feel for where they are on Beltre, Gonzalez, and their usual array of Plans B, C, D and E-F-G-H-I-J-K.

• Don't look for the Phillies to make any quick outfield strikes, either to sign or to replace Jayson Werth. They're waiting or the Werth drama to play out and for the non-tender-free-agent list to clarify their options. But in the meantime, we're hearing they're bearing down hard on left-handed relievers.

The guy who appears to top their list is Arthur Rhodes. But Rhodes just turned 41, has already spent one disastrous season in Philadelphia (0-5 in 2006, with a 5.32 ERA, followed by Tommy John surgery) and has a bunch of teams pursuing him now that the Cincinnati Reds have opted not to offer him arbitration.
Right behind him, from all indications, is Pedro Feliciano. One of Feliciano's main selling points would be simply that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley wouldn't have to face him anymore. Those two are hitting a combined .208 against him in 80 (yep, 80) plate appearances over the past five seasons.

Nishioka

• If the Minnesota Twins can sign the much-ballyhooed Tsuyoshi Nishioka after winning his bidding rights, they still haven't committed to whether they'd play him at shortstop or second base. He has played both -- and won Japan's version of the Gold Glove award at both. So they have options. But if they're looking for advice, one international scouting director casts a decisive vote for second base. Here's his report on Nishioka: "He's a second baseman. At shortstop, his arm is a little short for me. I look at him as a little better version of Kaz Matsui. I like him as a leadoff guy. He's got a good feel for the strike zone. I actually think he can be an impact guy at the top of the order. I just don't think he's a shortstop."

• The Houston Astros have been quietly poking around for a low-budget left-handed-hitting outfielder. And that's an indication they're leaning toward moving Carlos Lee to first base to give Brett Wallace a chance to go back to Triple-A and get more big-league-ready. But here's the question people are asking about that scenario: Are they prepared to move Lee back to left field when Wallace gets it all together? They'd better be because Lee has $18.5 million coming in 2011 and 2012, so he isn't particularly tradable.

[h4]TRIVIA ANSWER[/h4]

Jamie Moyer (whose streak of 14 straight ended this past season) and, of course, inexhaustible Livan Hernandez (13 and counting).

• A Mets official used the word "energy" three times in a minute and a half while describing what qualities most appealed to them about their new manager, Terry Collins. And that isn't a word you'd have used to describe the Mets for much of last season, so if Collins can infuse his clubhouse with that energy, it sure can't hurt.

But Collins has major work to do to persuade his players to look past what they've already heard about him from guys who played for him in the past. Here's what one of those ex-players told Rumblings: "I hope he learned from his mistakes, from what he went through his first two times. He was very uptight, screaming F-bombs in the dugout, that sort of thing. Just a really, really high-strung guy."
[h3]Contract Clause of the Week[/h3]
As loyal reader Brian Hamilton reports, the Phillies just included a $25,000 Silver Slugger incentive clause in Jose Contreras' new contract. They can't be too nervous about having to pay off that one. Contreras' lifetime "offensive" numbers: 0-for-29, with 18 strikeouts.
[h3]Rumblings Scouting Bureau[/h3]
A scout who spent some time in the Dominican Republic this winter gives us this report on the resuscitated Bartolo Colon:

"Can he still pitch? No question? And is he still going to last about six games? No question. Somebody's going to sign him. But I'd rather have him in August and September than at the beginning of the year because he is going to break down."
[h3]Headliner of the Week[/h3]
In the wake of the Big Ten's decision to allow Northwestern and Illinois to use only one end zone in their football game at Wrigley Field last month, this just in from our favorite goofballs at theheckler.com:
CUBS TO BAN HITS TO LEFT FIELD IN 2011 [h3]Tweet of the Week[/h3]
Finally, here's this blast from the Twitter account of the late, great workhorse, @OldHossRadbourn, who hasn't let the fact that he's been deceased for 113 years deter him from tweeting away incessantly -- in this case about that football game at Wrigley:

A team from Illinois will be the victor at Wrigley Field today. This is not usually the case.
[h3]Shameless Book Plug of the Week[/h3]
In other news, if you're in the Philadelphia area Friday and you're in one of those gift-acquisition moods that folks tend to fall into this time of year, the place to be is the first stop on our fourth annual Philadelphia Sports Book Signing Extravaganza. It all starts at 7 p.m. at the Barnes & Noble Oxford Valley store in Langhorne, Pa. Among the luminaries: Ray Didinger, Glen Macnow, Merrill Reese, Chris Wheeler, Greg Cosell, Todd Zolecki, Randy Miller, Reuben Frank and yours truly. Here's more info. See ya there!

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His latest book, "Worth The Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies," was published by Triumph Books and is available in bookstores and online. Click here to order a copy[/color].

 

Going into the offseason, it looked as if Cliff Lee would be the biggest free-agent story of the winter; now, though, Lee's upcoming blockbuster contract is almost an afterthought, pushed from headlines by the ongoing soap opera of Derek Jeter's contract.

Every day, there's a new headline concerned with the Jeter-gotations. The Yankees offered three years and $45 million! Jeter wants $150 million! Yankees ready to part with Jeter and sign Orlando Cabrera! Jeter wants 12 islands in the South Pacific!

The reality is much simpler -- the Yankees need a shortstop, Jeter needs a lucrative contract and both sides have strong incentives to get the contract worked out quickly. In the end, the smart money is on Jeter wearing pinstripes in 2011 (and the uniform won't say Rockies or Marlins on the front).

The only question that remains is just how well the Yankees will fare with Jeter's new contract.

The Yankees are obviously not a bad contract away from going into fire sale mode, but even the coffers of the Steinbrenner boys aren't bottomless. Lest we forget, the Yankees spent less in the free-agent market last year than the Brewers, Reds, Nationals, Astros, and A's, no profligate spenders among them.

While it can be difficult to place a precise dollar figure on a player like Jeter, who has substantial off-field value, we can at least make an educated guess. The bulk of a player's job, any player's job, is to put games in the win column.

The first thing to do is to project the most likely course for Jeter over the next three to five years. I ran the ZiPS projections for Jeter over the next five years to get a reasonable baseline for what to expect from Jeter.

His WAR -- wins above replacement, a key statistical measure -- would decline from 4.5 (2011) to 3.0 (2012) all the way to -0.1 (2015).

Assuming that a win is worth roughly $4.5 million (statheads have estimated) in 2011 and that goes up 5 percent a year, from a purely playing standpoint, you start to see the framework of a fair contract. If Jeter's willing to a sign a one- or two-year deal with the Yankees, which appears unlikely, the numbers suggest a $20 million and $34 million contract, respectively. At the three years the Yankees want to set the contract at, the projected value of $44 million compares favorably to the Yanks' reported offer of $45 million.

[h4]MAG IPAD APP FREE FOR INSIDERS[/h4]

The new ESPN The Magazine iPad app includes daily updated content and an iPad-optimized version of each issue of ESPN The Magazine.

The trouble comes in Years 4 and 5. Jeter will turn 40 in June of 2014 and the Yankees aren't relishing the prospect of paying $20 million or more a year to a player who might not even be a decent starter by then.

Projections aren't set in stone of course, else we wouldn't need to bother playing the seasons. The downside to Jeter is obvious -- he loses what's left of his power or his defense gets worse or an injury slows him down, leaving the Yankees with the highest-paid singles hitter ever.

There is, however, hope for the Yankees; there are reasonable scenarios on the optimistic side. While most players decline in their late 30s and early 40s, not every player declines at the same rate or at the same age.

To see what a reasonable optimistic scenario would look like for Jeter and the Yankees, I asked ZiPS to provide a sunnier scenario, one that Jeter has an estimated 20 percent chance of achieving. This scenario has more cheerful performances than we should expect on average, but a 1-in-5 chance isn't exactly a long shot.

[h4]Projecting the Middle Infielders[/h4]

How will 2B/SS fare in 2011? Dan Szymborski projects performance by key free agents, and
some -- such as Orlando Cabrera -- who could be good value grabs.

• Projecting 2B/SS







In this case, his WAR goes from 4.7 (2011) to 3.7 (2012) to 2.5 (2013) and then down to 1.0 (2015), as opposed to -0.1. His batting average hovers between .288 (2011) and .276 (2015).

For the three-year optimistic scenario, Jeter's value goes up to $52 million. When you factor in Jeter's off-the-field value, the Yankees clearly can add a few million per year to the current offer and have a decent chance at coming out on top.

Over the longer-upside scenario, Jeter's value goes up to $66 million, but the value per year declines, from just over $17 million in the three-year scenario to about $13 million a year.

What does this all mean? The Yankees have the ability to increase their offer and not have Jeter's new deal be a giant millstone and if the Yankees and Jeter meet somewhere in the middle, the team's best interests are increasing the salary per year and holding firm at three years.

One last thing: How likely is it that Jeter would be worth the five years, $120 million? To be worth that on the field, Jeter would need to be worth roughly 25 wins over the next five years, roughly equivalent to the best stretches of his career so far. ZiPS sees that as quite unlikely, roughly 700-to-1.

 

The first domino in the free agency line is Cliff Lee and he will affect all others behind him. Of course Carl Crawford could take a deal today, but it makes sense for him to wait, and it makes sense for others to wait for Crawford, and so on.

Getty ImagesThe Rangers' brass have tough decisions to make. If they miss Lee, Zack Greinke could be an option.

With that in mind, here's how the dominoes could fall in the weeks ahead:

Domino 1: Cliff Lee
The left-hander is entertaining interest from about a half-dozen teams, according to his agent Darek Braunecker, but it's all but impossible to find any executive who doesn't believe this will come down to a choice between the Yankees and the Rangers -- and we know that the Yankees, with their Wall Street-sized bank account, really, really want Lee. For the Yankees, there is risk in signing a 32-year-old pitcher to a massive contract, but that concern is mitigated by their revenue streams. For the Rangers, a five- or six-year investment in Lee is an enormous risk, because they could be committing anywhere from 20 to 30 percent of their payroll to a pitcher in his early '30s; if Lee gets hurt or his performance suffers, the Rangers' payroll structure would be devastated.

Domino 2a: The Rangers
If the Yankees sign Lee, then the Rangers -- who do have some payroll flexibility, an enthusiastic new ownership and a whole lot of momentum from their World Series appearance -- will turn to their Plan B list. Maybe that means a run at the best starting pitcher on the trade market, Zack Greinke, or maybe that means a run at the best free agent position players -- maybe Crawford, maybe Adam Dunn, maybe others. If the Rangers don't get Lee, they'll move aggressively to augment their roster in other ways.

The Rangers' No. 1 question, writes Randy Galloway, is what will happen with Lee. The Rangers made their pitch to the lefty, writes Jeff Wilson. If the price tag is too much, writes Evan Grant, the Rangers need to let him go. The Rangers have the talent needed to get Greinke, writes Mr. Grant. Agree completely.

Domino 2b: The Yankees
If Texas lands Lee, then the Yankees will turn their attention and aim their wallet elsewhere. Which is why it makes sense for Crawford's camp to wait.

Domino 3: Carl Crawford
He is the best position player on the free agent market and there is no shortage of interest from big-money teams like the Angels and the Red Sox. If Lee signs with Texas, the immediate question will be whether the Yankees take a full-fledged run at Crawford, which could only increase his leverage.

Domino 4a: The Red Sox
Theo Epstein likes to keep as many balls in the air as possible, to create options and negotiating leverage for himself, and it appears as if the Red Sox are currently juggling three potential targets: they could go for Crawford, Adrian Beltre or Jayson Werth. It figures they will wind up with one of those three players, given the field of bidders, and a major question in executive circles is whether the Red Sox have the budgetary space for two of the three.

One source says no, but remember, Boston is coming off a year in which it didn't make the playoffs, and there is unrest in the Red Sox fan base over owner John Henry's purchase of the Liverpool soccer franchise, with the popular theory being that because Henry's investments are stretched, he'll do less for the Red Sox. The guess here is that nothing will change, but there is pressure on Henry to make a splash this winter, and that will only be fueled if the Yankees sign Lee.

The Red Sox have met with Crawford.

Domino 4b: The Angels
It wasn't long ago that the Angels reigned over the AL West, but now a talent gap has emerged between the Rangers and LAA; no matter who the Angels add this winter, the Rangers will go into next season as the favorites to repeat in the West. Angels owner Arte Moreno has indicated that he will aggressively spend money this winter, and Crawford is a player who fits them perfectly -- in their lineup, for their defense, in their clubhouse, in the style of play that manager Mike Scioscia favors. In recent years, agents say, the Angels have had a unique approach to negotiating: They've come in with one offer and when it hasn't been good enough, they've withdrawn from the field. That would probably be a losing approach in the Crawford sweepstakes, because the Red Sox and other teams figure to be very aggressive.

The Angels may also be major players on Rafael Soriano, the best reliever available, and if they don't get Crawford, then Beltre or Werth could be fits for them. But the X-factor in the Angels' dealings on Soriano, Beltre and Werth is the ragged relationship between the team and agent Scott Boras, who represents all three of those players. While the Angels have reportedly met with Boras this winter, it remains to be seen whether they would have the patience for the kind of extended give-and-take that Boras often engages in.

Domino 5: Jayson Werth
The 31-year-old outfielder is coming off a season in which he hit .296 with 27 homers and a .388 on-base percentage, which is all good. The primary question is: How many teams will take a serious run at him? Will the Angels, especially if they lose out on Crawford to another team? Will the Red Sox make a hard push if they lose out on Crawford? Will the Detroit Tigers, who have a lot of financial flexibility and a long history of deals with Boras clients?

Domino 6: The Phillies
There is enough doubt about the volume in the Werth market that the Phillies intend to hang around -- just in case the price tag dips into their range. Boras is said to be looking for a Matt Holliday-like seven-year, $120 million, which is probably beyond where the Phillies want to go. But Domonic Brown doesn't appear ready to contribute consistently in the big leagues, the Phillies are very much in need of a right-handed bat like Werth, and so they'll wait.

If Werth signs with Boston or the Angels, the Phillies are more likely to take an incremental approach to improving their lineup.

Getty ImagesAdrian Beltre wants a big deal, but the market for third baseman isn't vast.

Domino 7: Adrian Beltre
Boras was quoted recently as saying that in his time as an agent, he has never seen a player generate as much interest as Beltre has in this offseason. In some front offices, this remark is being interpreted like the scratch of a cheek in a poker game -- a bluff. "I'd bet he doesn't have a lot of teams involved," said one GM.

Only Boras knows for sure. But here are the playoff-contending teams which don't need a third baseman: the Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Rays, Twins, etc., etc.

This does not mean Beltre isn't going to get a good deal; it's hard to imagine him signing for anything less than four years and $52 million. The Red Sox want to keep Beltre, who had an excellent 2010 season and is renowned for his effort. He'd be a good fit for the Giants, Blue Jays and Angels, although it's unclear whether any of those teams will have the budgetary space for Beltre. And whether it's right or wrong, the fact that Beltre's best seasons have always come when he's about to become eligible for free agency has generated a lot of debate within some front offices.

The Athletics want Beltre, but last winter, Beltre didn't want them, turning down a larger offer to play with Boston. The Orioles have the money to bid on Beltre and he'd be a great fit in a lot of ways, but we don't know if Beltre is truly prepared to sign with a team that has served as a stalking horse for a lot of primary free agents in the last decade.

The dominoes will probably start tumbling at the winter meetings.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Red Sox are watching the Russell Martin talks closely, writes Michael Silverman.
• Pat Burrell, so crucial to the Giants' late-season drive, re-signed with San Francisco. The Giants are bringing back one of the misfits, writes Andrew Baggarly.

• I find this to be fascinating: Lance Berkman is strongly considering an offer from the Rockies, as Troy Renck writes. It's hard to imagine the Rockies would spend serious money on Berkman unless they wanted to prepare a safety net at first base, to prepare for the possibility that Todd Helton fails to bounce back.

• You may have heard by now: The Yankees are in negotiations with Derek Jeter.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Nationals' offseason is off to a slow start, and it's not too soon to worry, writes Thomas Boswell. In the end, the Nationals -- like the Orioles -- will probably be left to sort through a lot of leftovers. On that front, the Orioles have reportedly made an offer to Paul Konerko, among others.
2. Jeff Karstens might be on the arbitration bubble. The Pirates signed some free agents.

3. Oakland is interested in Adam Dunn, writes Susan Slusser.

4. The D-Backs have signed Wily Mo Pena.

5. The Padres cut ties with a couple of veterans, writes Bill Center.

6. Building a bullpen won't be easy for the Red Sox.

7. Terry Collins confirmed what was reported the other day: The Mets are heavy into talks with Chris Young.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]

Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

8. The Twins are not going to jettison J.J. Hardy for nothing, writes Joe Christensen. Look for 14 Twins to be tendered contracts, writes Charley Walters.

9. Bobby Valentine says he was never close to becoming the Brewers' manager.

10. The Reds have had some talks with Jay Bruce and Joey Votto about a multi-year deal, and there is word within this piece that Bronson Arroyo's talks are progressing.

11. The Rays have been aggressive in looking for relief help.

12. A couple of Mariners are waiting to see if they'll get contract offers.

13. The Indians might find a third baseman among the free agents, writes Paul Hoynes.

14. The Cardinals are looking to trade Brendan Ryan, writes Derrick Goold.

15. The Jays' bullpen has come into sharper focus.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Jamie Moyer had surgery, writes Bob Brookover.
2. J.P. Howell won't be ready for spring training, writes Marc Topkin.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Brennan Boesch will need to improve his defense.
• The Royals announced their spring training schedule, writes Bob Dutton.

• The Rays need to go for the pennant or punt, writes John Romano.

• John Gordon may broadcast fewer Twins games.

• A Vanderbilt player is thankful.

• Since retiring, Coach Meyer has been speaking almost daily to large and small groups all over the place; on Wednesday, he was in Nebraska. He calls his artificial leg "Little Buddy," and he is fully intent on sprinting right to the finish line.

And today will be better than yesterday.

 
http://[h3]

[h3]Dear John letter for Maine[/h3]
9:08AM ET

[h5]John Maine | Mets [/h5]


John Maine fell out of favor with former Mets manager Jerry Manuel last season. He apparently won't get a chance turn things around under new field boss Terry Collins.

Andy Martino of the Daily News writes the Mets will non-tender the righthander by Thursday's deadline, making him a free agent. Maine was just 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA in an injury-plagued 2010 season.

Angel Pagan, R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey and Sean Green are the other arbitration-eligible players waiting for for the Mets to tender them a contract. Martino says Pagan, Dickey and Pelfrey will certainly be retained while the status of Green is unclear.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Yankees, Jeter still far apart[/h3]
8:55AM ET

[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]


That get-together between Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees earlier this week may have been a cordial one, but the two sides remain far apart on any deal, reports Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden in the Daily News.

The report says Tuesday's sit-down in Tampa came about after Jeter and his agent, Casey Close, reached out to the Yankees to arrange a meeting. One source said the talks ended with the Yankees - who were represented by Hal Steinbrenner, Randy Levine and Brian Cashman - asking Close to get back to them with any thoughts on how to proceed.

The two sides apparently decided to keep things civil, but that doesn?t mean either is willing to budge. The Yankees have offered Jeter a three-year, $45 million contract, while Jeter is believed to be seeking four or five years at $22 million-$24 million per season,

The Daily News report says Troy Tulowitzki's contract with the Rockies is believed to have emboldened the Yankees in their assertion that their offer to Jeter is more than fair and reasonable. Tulowitzki is 10 years younger than Jeter and will make an average annual salary of $15.7 million.

Not all reports are as pessimistic. Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com quoted a source close to the negotiations who said Tuesday's get-together was a "good, constructive meeting? that "could eventually lead somewhere."

Cashman had grown frustrated with the Jeter contract talks, daring the 36-year-old free agent shortstop to see what he can get on the open market.

If the Jeter talks were to collapse completely, the Yankees have a backup plan in http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30290http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30290Eduardo Nunez, writes ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney. Nunez, a 23-year-old prospect with 30 games of big-league experience, has a reputation as a defense-first talent but hit .289 with a respectable .340 on-base percentage in Triple-A in 2010.

- Doug Mittler

[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Closing the Jeter deal

"If Jeter feels anger toward the team or the media for how this has played out, he needs to put that behind him and imagine how he would've felt if, as an 18-year-old, he had been offered a three-year, $45 million deal to be the shortstop of the Yankees. Even if he doesn't get what he wants in this negotiation, he is still in an incredible situation. The Yankees need to do all they can to reach across the aisle and make sure Jeter knows that they view him as an important part of a championship contender. If that means Joe Girardi flying down to meet with Jeter, so be it. If it means doing something like picking up the tab for Jeter's Super Bowl party -- a nice gesture -- so be it. If it means putting on all the bells and whistles to announce Jeter's new deal, they should do that."

[/h3]

http://[h3]Rangers pay Lee a visit[/h3]
8:23AM ET

[h5]Cliff Lee | Rangers [/h5]


We mentioned Wednesday that it may finally be time for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangersTexas Rangers to show http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5353Cliff Lee the money.

George King of the New York Post reported the Rangers are on the verge of making an official offer to retain the left-handed free-agent hurler. Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com reports that Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and club president Nolan Ryan visited with Lee in Arkansas earlier this week, but Daniels would not comment on whether the club made a formal offer.

Sources told ESPNNewYork.com that the New York Yankees, the other major player in the Lee sweepstakes, have not yet made an offer. We know a big offer is coming, and Lee appears in no rush to sign. "He's been waiting for this for years," ESPN's Tim Kurkjian said. "He wants to see how this plays out."

The Rangers, aware the Yankees are willing to pay $23 million a year for Lee, will not be gun shy about making the prized free agent a five-year offer. The Yankees are believed to have made a five- or six-year offer.

Our Buster Olney chimes in with us, emailing: "We've known the Rangers would compete with the Yankees. I don't think the question is about the fifth year guarantee; the question is whether either team goes to a sixth year, at $23-25 million a year."

There have been conflicting reports whether the Yankees have offered Lee a six-year deal worth $140 million. If that is true, it might be enough to get it done.

The Rangers reportedly want to know where they stand with Lee soon, because if he isn't returning to Texas, the AL champions may make a run at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883Zack Greinke. The industry views the Rangers' contingency plans as a sign Lee is headed to New York.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Dunn to A's could hinge on Berkman[/h3]
7:58AM ET

[h5]Adam Dunn | Nationals [/h5]


Adam Dunn saw one possible destination come off the board once Victor Martinez signed with the Detroit Tigers, but another serious suitor may have emerged thanks to Lance Berkman.

An industry source tells the Chronicle's Susan Slusser that Oakland is "absolutely a serious contender" for Dunn. Slusser says Berkman remains the A's top target, but the interest in Dunn could pick up now that Berkman is seriously considering a deal with Colorado.

Slusser said via Twitter that there were "plans" for the A's to meet with Dunn Wednesday but said meeting did not occur.

Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan reported this week that Dunn is asking clubs for a 4-year deal worth about $60 million.

Dunn, according to Jon Morosi, is expected to sign with the club that offers the most years and dollars, rather than the club that offers the most time at first base.

This opens the market for Dunn, since more teams have a need at DH than at first base, and if Dunn is willing to be flexible in that manner, it opens up more contending clubs, including the White Sox, Rangers, Rays and Angels.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Berkman considers Rockies deal[/h3]
7:36AM ET

[h5]Lance Berkman | Yankees | Interested: Rockies? [/h5]


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4118Lance Berkman would have loved to return to the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astrosHouston Astros, the team that drafted him, but any chance of a return to Space City ended when his agent dialed up GM Ed Wade.

"It wasn't a long conversation," Berkman told Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle last week.

The Astros will go with younger players next season, but that doesn't mean that the 34-year-old Berkman, who finished the year with the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankeesNew York Yankees, will be out of work.

Berkman is being pursued by several clubs and is getting a serious sales pitch from the Rockies, reports Troy Renck in Thursday's Denver Post. While no signing is imminent, Renck says the Rockies have "talked extensively" about a one-year contract and are hopeful his desire to remain in the National League will help them close the deal.

Berkman said during the playoffs that he was open to playing in Colorado and he has the same agent as Rockies first baseman Todd Helton. The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Athletics also are pursuing Berkman to some extent.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]O's offer to Konerko is significant[/h3]
7:18AM ET

[h5]Paul Konerko | White Sox [/h5]


The Baltimore Orioles showed they would be serious players in the free agent market when they made a credible offer to Victor Martinez, who ended up in Detroit.

Paul Konerko is now on the Orioles' radar, with Jim Bowden of XM and Fox Sports Radio tweeting that the Birds have made a "significant" offer to the first baseman who has spent the last 12 years with the White Sox.

With at least three clubs with serious interest -- O's, Rangers and White Sox -- Konerko may not have problems getting at least three years this winter.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun points out that the Orioles also have a history of courting Konerko. They were the top bidder for his services in the 2005 offseason, but he chose to remain with the White Sox and signed a five-year, $60 million deal.

Ken Rosenthal reported last week that the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangersTexas Rangers, who also made a strong pitch for Martinez, are showing interest in Konerko.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Moyer has Tommy John surgery[/h3]
7:02AM ET

[h5]Jamie Moyer | Phillies [/h5]


Jamie Moyer underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday and could be sidelined up to a year, but the 48-year-old left-hander isn't ready to call it quits.

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News says Moyer posted a note on his charitable foundation's Facebook page expressing hope for a comeback. That may be wishful thinking, but Moyer has been counted out in the past before landing a job in the major leagues.

Moyer injured his elbow earlier this month pitching in the Dominican Republic.

The Phillies placed Moyer on waivers this week to clear a spot on the 40-man roster and the lefthander filed for free agency.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Crawford, Red Sox talking[/h3]
6:58AM ET

[h5]Carl Crawford | Rays [/h5]


Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reports that the Red Sox, who have been relatively quiet this offseason, are in hot pursuit of Carl Crawford and adds that Jayson Werth and Adrian Beltre are still in play, too.

One of Crawford's best offers, however, may come from a team that currently views the free agent outfielder as a Plan B.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday reported earlier this week that the Yankees' primary goal is to sign http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5353Cliff Lee. Yet if the Rangers end up landing Lee, and the Yankees bow out, GM Brian Cashman could shift his focus to Crawford, who has spent his entire career in Tampa Bay. Cashman reportedly has kept in touch with the representatives for Crawford, just in case.

In either case, the Yankees could get recruiting help from http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4553CC Sabathia, who is good friends with both Lee and Crawford.

The Angels and Tigers also are suitors for Crawford. Bill Shaikin of the LA Times wrote recently that the Angels are prepared to make Crawford the first $100 million player in franchise history.

The Nationals also are showing interest, but whether Crawford is keen on D.C. remains unclear.

http://[h3]Guerrier to Blue Jays?[/h3]
4:37PM ET

[h5]Free agent relievers [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
UPDATE: Despite the Blue Jays likely retaining the services of right-hander Jason Frasor who accepted the club's arbitration offer Tuesday, they have interest in Guerrier, the former Twins reliever who was not offered arbitration and carries no required compensation.

Peter Gammons tweeted Wednesday, however, that both Guerrier and Jesse Crain and seeking three-year contracts similar to that of Joaquin Benoit, who received $16.5 million from Detroit earlier this month.

...

Amidst the arbitration offers before Tuesday's deadline, some of the most intriguing news came in the form of three relievers being informed they were not being offered arbitration. The Minnesota Twins did not tender such an offer to right-handers Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier or southpaw Brian Fuentes, tweets Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, nor did the Tampa Rays to Dan Wheeler or the Cincinnati Reds to Arthur Rhodes. The trio can now shop their talents to the open market without those clubs being concerned with sacrificing a high draft pick as compensation. Rhodes, however, is expected to re-up with the Reds.

Wheeler and Guerrier could find themselves in a better position than fellow free agent bullpen arms such as Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and Grant Balfour, whose clubs did offer them arbitration.

Rauch and Fuentes, as well as a number of others, ranked as Type-B free agents, which do not require the signing club to forfeit the picks.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Pirates in on SS market[/h3]
4:32PM ET

[h5]Shortstops [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
UPDATE: The Pittsburgh Pirates, who were reportedly in on left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, are interested in trade-available shortstops J.J. Hardy and Jason Bartlett, reports Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com.

The Pirates may non-tender Ronny Cedeno, the club's starter at shortstop last season, rather than pay him something in the range of $2 million.

...

With Juan Uribe signing to play second base for the Dodgers and Ryan Theriot moving from L.A. to St. Louis -- perhaps to play second base -- the market for shortstops is thinning out, and word comes in Tuesday evening, via ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas via Twitter, that the San Francisco Giants have agreed to a deal with Miguel Tejada.

Tejada's deal, Rojas's tweet says, is for one year at rate of $6.5 million. Tejada could end up playing either shortstop or second base for the Giants.

Clubs still in the market for a shortstop include the Baltimore Orioles, who have been eyeing J.J. Hardy and Jason Bartlett, but Dan Connelly writes that the O's and Rays have not progressed on a deal for the veteran shortstop.

Other clubs that could seek shortstop help include the San Diego Padres and the Cardinals, with Cesar Izturis, a free agent, and Marco Scutaro, a potential trade target, also still available.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Pitching for Willingham?[/h3]
4:06PM ET

[h5]Josh Willingham | Nationals [/h5]


The possibility that the Washington National may trade Josh Willingham remains, as the outfielder hits arbitration this offseason with a chance to earn a salary in the $6 million range, maybe more, after making $4.6 million this past season, a strong year at the plate for the 31-year-old.

The Nationals, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post want pitching in return for Willingham, which likely eliminates the Rockies.

The Rockies have interest in Kevin Kouzmannof, Jose Lopez, Mike Napoli and Troy Glaus, among others, as they seek a right-handed bat to platoon with Todd Helton at first base.

Willingham would like to remain in D.C. for the long term but there has been no indication as of yet that the club is interested in an extension.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Okajima done in Boston?[/h3]
3:06PM ET

[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]


MLB.com reports Wednesday that the Boston Red Sox may choose to non-tender left-handed reliever Hideki Okajima, instead of paying him an arbitration-driven salary for 2011 that could be as much as $4 million.

Boston could try and replace Okajima with a free agent such as Pedro Feliciano, Scott Downs or Brian Fuentes, though Fuentes and Downs would cost the Red Sox draft-pick compensation.

The Sox could also look into George Sherrill, who may be non-tendered by the Dodgers this week and maybe traded before then.

Boston did acquire Andrew Miller earlier this month and plan to use him in a relief role, but hasn't been great against left-handed batters in his time in the big leagues.

The Red Sox could also work out a deal with Okajima, perhaps for multiple years, and avoid arbitration altogether, the way the club did with catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Might the Padres eye Pavano?[/h3]
2:28PM ET

[h5]San Diego Padres [/h5]


The San Diego Padres reportedly had serious interest in left-hander Jorge De La Rosa before the Rockies locked him up, and as a result we have to wonder if the club will make a play for other names on the market such as Carl Pavano.

Pavano and the Twins share mutual interest in continuing their relationship, but the Chicago Cubs, Rockies and Washington Nationals could also be fits for the right-hander.

We discussed earlier Wednesday that the Detroit Tigers may still have plenty of money left to spend on improving their roster, and the Texas Rangers may have to consider Pavano to some level if they lose out on Cliff Lee.

The Padres offered arbitration to Kevin Correia and though the right-hander turned it down it shows that the club is open to bringing him back in 2011. Aaron Harang, Jeremy Bonderman and Jeff Francis could also be of interest to the Padres, who presently lack the rotation options with which most clubs prefer to start spring training, suggesting that there is work to do in that area.

- Jason A. Churchill

[h5]Jayson Stark[/h5]
Pavano positioned for three-year deal

"There's Carl Pavano -- who seems positioned to get a three-year deal for at least the Ted Lilly-esque money (three years, $33 million) he's seeking. And then there's everyone else -- the One-Year Contract Good Luck With This Group All-Stars."

http://[h3]"No way" Greinke plays in NY[/h3]
2:06PM ET

[h5]Zack Greinke | Royals [/h5]


UPDATE: Nick Cafardo, citing a source, tweets "there's no way" Greinke would agree to a deal that landed him in New York.

...

We have been hearing for weeks that Zack Greinke would use his limited no-trade clause to block any trade to the New York Yankees.

Greinke may have a fondness for the Big Apple after all, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. A source tells Passan that the Kansas City right-hander would happily pitch anywhere that would provide a winning team.

The Yankees could make a play for Greinke if they are unable to land Cliff Lee.

In last Tuesday's blog, our Buster Olney hears some rival general managers are convinced the Royals are intent on moving Greinke this winter, and if they are the Rangers could be a bidder.

In that light, ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett asks his readers what they would give up for Greinke, and discusses his ideas that include perhaps both Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez, two of the Rangers' top pitching prospects.

Meanwhile, George King of the New York Post wrote Tuesday that the Rangers want to know where they stand with Lee soon. If Lee isn't returning to Texas, the Rangers also are contemplating taking a run at Greinke.

 

[GreenNGold89]

4 year $60 mil is a lot of money for someone who sucks on defense and strikes out a bunch, but I'd be down for Dunn coming to the A's.

That would be a huge power upgrade. I doubt it happens though, especially since he wants to play OF and we would probably want him as a DH.

 

[GreenNGold89]

4 year $60 mil is a lot of money for someone who sucks on defense and strikes out a bunch, but I'd be down for Dunn coming to the A's.

That would be a huge power upgrade. I doubt it happens though, especially since he wants to play OF and we would probably want him as a DH.

 

[bratz dos]

DeJesus can cover the ground Dunn cant. He wont be in the field everyday anyway if he signs in the AL. enough money will convince him that.

 

[bratz dos]

DeJesus can cover the ground Dunn cant. He wont be in the field everyday anyway if he signs in the AL. enough money will convince him that.

 

[lb510]

[h3]
[/h3]
The Chicago White Sox have signed free-agent slugger Adam Dunn to a reported four-year, $56-million deal.


Joe Cowley, of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the deal is done pending a physical that could happen as soon as tomorrow.

Last season Dunn had a .260 batting average, a .356 OBP and a .536 SLG, with 38 HRs and 103 RBI for the Washington Nationals. Dunn would primarily have to play DH.

 

[lb510]

[h3]
[/h3]
The Chicago White Sox have signed free-agent slugger Adam Dunn to a reported four-year, $56-million deal.


Joe Cowley, of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the deal is done pending a physical that could happen as soon as tomorrow.

Last season Dunn had a .260 batting average, a .356 OBP and a .536 SLG, with 38 HRs and 103 RBI for the Washington Nationals. Dunn would primarily have to play DH.

 

[p1nstr1pez]

Dunn is one of my favorite players, he's just a bopper all he does is hit homers. He will help the White Sox.

 

[p1nstr1pez]

Dunn is one of my favorite players, he's just a bopper all he does is hit homers. He will help the White Sox.

 

[stringer bell 32]

 

[stringer bell 32]

 

[chitownrivera07]

Nice

We Still Need To Resign Konerko Tho, and figure out what we plan to do behind the plate if the Organization feels Tyler Flowers isnt ready yet

 

[chitownrivera07]

Nice

We Still Need To Resign Konerko Tho, and figure out what we plan to do behind the plate if the Organization feels Tyler Flowers isnt ready yet

 

[sickickz23]

Jeff baker resigns with the cubs for one year. Yes I hate my life and hate the ricketts more and more...

 

[sickickz23]

Jeff baker resigns with the cubs for one year. Yes I hate my life and hate the ricketts more and more...

 

[ooiron manoo]

Proshares, props on all the copy and pasting, seriously not being sarcastic...

Still as a baseball fan, this thread is an eyesore.

 

[chitownrivera07]

Originally Posted by sickickz23

Jeff baker resigns with the cubs for one year. Yes I hate my life and hate the ricketts more and more...

 

[ooiron manoo]

Proshares, props on all the copy and pasting, seriously not being sarcastic...

Still as a baseball fan, this thread is an eyesore.

 

[chitownrivera07]

Originally Posted by sickickz23

Jeff baker resigns with the cubs for one year. Yes I hate my life and hate the ricketts more and more...

 

[jpzx]

 

[jpzx]

 

[stringer bell 32]

Donkey Show on the South Side

 

[stringer bell 32]

Donkey Show on the South Side

 

[GreenNGold89]

We're never going to be able to sign a FA in this dump we play in.

 

[GreenNGold89]

We're never going to be able to sign a FA in this dump we play in.