Originally Posted by Hollywood James 6
My sources are telling me Greinke to the Twins for Baker, Slowey, and possibly a minor leaguer...
Edit: Actually Greinke for Delmon, Blackburn, and a prospect. I like Delmon though
Originally Posted by Hollywood James 6
My sources are telling me Greinke to the Twins for Baker, Slowey, and possibly a minor leaguer...
Edit: Actually Greinke for Delmon, Blackburn, and a prospect. I like Delmon though
[/h3][h3]Players in demand [/h3]
1. Cliff Lee: He was No. 1 on my overall top 50 for a reason -- even with the two World Series losses, he's the best guy on the market. I'm personally not a fan of long-term contracts for pitchers, but if you have money and can drop a five-year contract on an ace, Lee is the exception among 2010 FAs.
2. Carl Pavano: He was No. 7 on the overall top 50; some people throw him under the bus for his stint with the New York Yankees, but he's remade himself as a sinker-changeup artist and is coming off two of the best seasons of his career. He's not a good option if you play in a small park, though; he has a below-average fastball and that can make him homer-prone.
3. Jorge De La Rosa: He was No. 8 on the overall top 50; he walks too many guys and he's only thrown more than 140 innings in a professional season once. He's injury-prone (non-arm; he lost two months to a finger in 2010), but his changeup is plus, and his slider is above-average. If you want a power arm with some potential development remaining, he's a good pickup.
[h3]Players to avoid [/h3]
1. Freddy Garcia: More evidence that Don Cooper is the greatest pitching coach going? Freddy Garcia, throwing glorified BP late in 2009, was a capable fifth starter for the surprise contenders on the South Side this year, throwing more off-speed stuff than ever and perhaps finding a second act for a career that seemed to end with his trade to Philadelphia and oh-what-a-coincidence shoulder surgery. Maybe this will work in Petco or PNC parks, but I wouldn't want to be the one making that bet.
2. Jon Garland: Garland hasn't been the same since leaving the White Sox -- all hail Don Cooper -- but the career-low ERA in 2010 was a function of the pitchers' paradise of Petco Park, unless you think that his fringe-average fastball has suddenly become a bona fide swing-and-miss pitch. Garland provides value through durability but not through stuff, and with his control seemingly headed in the wrong direction it's not clear that anyone will want to run him out there for 200 innings outside of Petco.
[h4]Projecting the Starters[/h4]
How will starters fare in 2011? Dan Szymborski projects performance key free agents, and some -- such as Javy Vazquez -- who could be overlooked.
• Projecting starters
3. Javier Vazquez: I ranked Vazquez in my top 50 because of how good he was in 2009, but his performance in 2010 wasn't merely a function of pitching in New York. His velocity was down, and that's often a sign of an underlying injury, most likely something in the shoulder. If I'm a GM, I'm sniffing around on this one but signing nothing until there's a full physical and my team doctor tells me I'm just being paranoid.
[h3]More players to discuss [/h3]
1. Hisashi Iwakuma: He was No. 16 on the overall top 50; he's a 29-year-old who played for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan last year. He's more a middle-of-the-rotation guy than an ace, but he has a conventional delivery and a pitch-to-contact approach that tends to yield ground balls, not too many walks and limited strikeouts. If you need a potential No. 4 starter, he's worth a look.
2. Zack Greinke: It sounds like the Royals will at least listen to offers this winter, although with Greinke signed to a very reasonable deal through 2012, they have no urgency to make a move right away. But given how much talent they have coming, trading Greinke in the right deal could easily set them up for a couple of playoff berths in the 2013-2016 range. Greinke was off-the-charts valuable in 2009 -- more valuable than Cliff Lee was in either of the past two seasons, for example -- but his command wasn't quite as sharp in 2010, and he didn't have the same consistency on his curveball. His velocity was fine, his slider remained sharp, and he still has excellent control and a great feel for pitching. As for the depression issues that briefly derailed his career in 2006, I think it's an overblown concern for fans given the past three years of performance, durability, and zero hints of any problem that would affect him on the field.
3. Derek Lowe: Lowe actually pitched substantially better in the second half of 2010 as he ramped up the use of his slider, giving him the best swing-and-miss option he's had in some time while he also managed to cut down his walks. He turns 38 on June 1 and an acquiring team is betting on him holding that form for two more seasons, but it might be more appealing than giving up a draft pick and signing a lesser free-agent starter for three or even four years.
For the fifth straight year, Keith Law breaks down the top 50 free agents, this time for the class of 2010-11. Law's reports are based on firsthand observation. He has been the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. since 2006. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Welcome, again, to MLB free agency. It's a good class, although the 2009-10 group -- with Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey et al -- might have been better. The full list of 2010-11 MLB free agents is here.
The gems of this class are Cliff Lee (on the pitching side) and Carl Crawford (on the hitting side). Both should command large deals, although there is value to be had once you get into the 30s on this list.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Cliff Lee[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers[/td][/tr][/table]
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM28
- W12
- L9
- BB18
- K185
- ERA3.18
I understand the recent story might seem to revolve around two World Series losses, including one regrettable night when he didn't have his curveball, but over the past three years, Lee has demonstrated that he is an inner-circle No. 1 starter, one of the half-dozen best in the game at his craft. No free agent in this class has generated more value for his clubs (using FanGraphs' WAR) than Lee over the past two years, as he's been worth nearly 14 wins over a replacement pitcher during that period. As you saw in Game 5 against San Francisco, he's a classic command and control pitcher who carves up hitters despite the lack of a plus fastball. He's a four-pitch guy who can cut the fastball or throw a two-seamer, so hitters never know which way the ball is going, and when his tight, two-plane curveball is working, he throws it for strikes or below the zone for swings and misses. His arm action is easy and he hasn't had a major arm injury, but he has had minor back problems of late that could scare away a team. I'm not a fan of long-term contracts for pitchers, but if I had the money and ownership could stomach the risk of a five-year contract for an arm, Lee is the pitcher for whom I'd make an exception in this class.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Carl Crawford[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: LF
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays [/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM154
- HR19
- RBI90
- R110
- OBP.356
- AVG.307
In a thin market for position players, Crawford stands out as a young player with athleticism that should help him age well and as someone who has the ability to contribute on both sides of the ball. He is an all-pitch hitter and uses the whole field well, going to left on pitches too hard for him to pull. He set career highs in home runs and isolated power in 2010 and might maintain that for another year or two, but his overall approach didn't change substantially and it's as likely as not a walk-year spike. His main weakness at the plate remains left-handed pitching, especially balls heading away from him, which would render him a near-platoon player if it wasn't for the value he provides with his glove. Crawford is the best defensive left fielder in the game, with the speed to play center field but not the instincts, leaving him "out of position" in a way that has benefited the Rays significantly over the past five years. He's a plus-plus runner and a smart base stealer with an 83 percent success rate over the past six years. Given his body type, age and well-rounded skill set, he's one of the few free agents in this class worth a five-year commitment.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4262Jayson Werth [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RF
'10 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-philliesPhiladelphia Phillies [/td][/tr][/table]
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM156
- HR27
- RBI85
- R106
- OBP.388
- AVG.296
Werth has been a fairly complete player over the past two seasons, showing patience and power with plus defense in right field while adding value on the bases. But given his age, he's closer to the end of his peak years than the beginning. Werth is 6-foot-5, lanky and athletic, but unlike a lot of hitters with long arms, he likes the ball on the inner half, keeping his hands inside the ball extremely well. He showed a pronounced home/road split in 2010, always a concern for a position player whose home park is hitter-friendly, with 61 percent of his home runs coming at Citizens Bank Park since the start of 2009. Werth has been healthy for two full, consecutive years but missed all of 2006 and most of 2007 due to wrist surgeries, and has had knee problems that date back to his days as a catching prospect in the Baltimore and Toronto systems before he moved to the outfield in 2002. Knee problems tend to get worse as a player reaches his mid- to late-30s, so while Werth is healthy at the moment, a long-term commitment involves some extra risk in his case.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Adrian Beltre[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 3B
'10 team: Boston Red Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM154
- HR28
- RBI102
- R84
- OBP.365
- AVG.321
Beltre had a chance to do this in 2009, also a walk year for him, but a modest year looked awful because of the way Safeco kills right-handed power hitters. Still, even an aggressive ballpark adjustment couldn't have forecasted the year Beltre had in 2010, hitting at home and on the road, lefties and righties, for doubles and home run power and plenty of contact. He was fully healthy in 2010 for the first time in more than a year and seemed to tighten up his two-strike approach, rarely getting beaten in the zone in those counts. Despite the huge year, there's the obvious concern about the last time Beltre's performance spiked upward during a contract push (as it did in 2004), a level he couldn't maintain in five years in Seattle. Also, his tendency to try to pull the ball can produce a lot of hard groundouts to third and weakly hit balls to right field with a little bad luck. He's an outstanding defensive third baseman with quick reflexes, great hands and a plus arm, and if healthy, he should remain so for three or four more years.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Victor Martinez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: Both Throws: R
Position: C
'10 team: Boston Red Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM127
- HR20
- RBI79
- R64
- OBP.351
- AVG.302
Outside of an injury-wracked 2008, Martinez has been an extremely consistent offensive catcher but one whose problems behind the plate have steadily worsened over the course of his big league career. Right-handed, he gets good hip rotation and can drive the ball the other way, so even though he doesn't have great loft in his swing, he does have above-average power from that side. Left-handed, he gets pretty good hip rotation as well but cuts himself off with a late stride and closed stance, leaving his plate coverage lacking on the outer half. His 35 unintentional walks gave him the worst walk rate of his career, even worse than in 2008, as he seemed to trade patience for earlier contact and more power than in 2009. As a catcher, Martinez is unable to control the running game -- just ask the Rangers -- and leaving him back there represents a calculated trade-off to gain offense at the cost of an additional base or two (or seven) against a team that likes to run. He'll probably end up at first base by the time a four-year contract is up.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Adam Dunn[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: 1B/DH
'10 team: Washington Nationals [/td][/tr][/table]
Washington Nationals[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM158
- HR38
- RBI103
- R85
- OBP.356
- AVG.260
Adam Dunn is a classic "old man's skills" player, showing patience and power with no speed and little defensive value even in his mid- to late 20s. After six straight years of 100 or more walks, Dunn had his lowest full-season walk total in 2010, and it wasn't just a fluke -- he saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance of his career. Was it a change in approach because of his impending walk year, an attempt to swing the bat more and produce more "traditional" results? If so, it didn't help, as his average didn't budge and he matched his 2009 home run total. But he also seemed to be looking more for fastballs he could drive, and became more susceptible than before to sliders and changeups because he was so much more pull-oriented. Dunn is best suited to DH duty, and his bat certainly will play there for several more years, but he did show in 2010 that given regular playing time at first, he could be at least below average there, rather than an outright disaster. He's just not mobile enough to cover any ground there or in an outfield corner, and it's clear that his primary interest is hitting. He does that so well, though, that it's a problem only for people more concerned with whether or not he likes baseball than whether or not he helps his team win. The change in approach and potential loss of 30 to 40 points of on-base percentage going forward should hold down his potential offers, as teams most likely to value what Dunn offers are the same ones most likely to worry about the change in his performance in 2010.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Carl Pavano[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM32
- W17
- L11
- BB37
- K117
- ERA3.75
Pavano has become a bit of a joke among fans and even a little within the game because of his disastrous four-year run with the Yankees, but it is entirely possible Pavano's problem wasn't mental but physical. He was hurt more or less when he walked in the door and didn't get fully healthy until several months after he left, by which point he was in Cleveland and headed for Minnesota, where he just turned in one of the two best seasons of his career -- maybe his best, really, when you consider the league difference. He has remade himself as a sinker-changeup artist, throwing the changeup in almost any count and using it heavily with two strikes, and has rediscovered the plus control and above-average command that made him so effective for Florida in 2003 and '04. The risk with him now, beyond injury, is that pitchers with below-average fastballs tend to be homer-prone, and Pavano is not a great option for teams in small ballparks. But as an innings-eater who gets some ground balls and doesn't show a massive platoon split, he's a viable mid-rotation to back-end starter.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Jorge De La Rosa[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Colorado Rockies [/td][/tr][/table]
Colorado Rockies[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM20
- W8
- L7
- BB55
- K113
- ERA4.22
When De La Rosa is 100 percent, he'll work at 92-97 mph with a plus changeup, an above-average slider and a fringe-average curveball with good depth but a big break that makes it easier for hitters to pick it up. The changeup is his best pitch, more of an arm-speed weapon than an action changeup, and he extends well out front so hitters have very little time to try to figure out whether it's coming in at 94 or 84. De La Rosa has had a lot of non-arm injuries, from the finger injury that cost him two months of 2010 to the groin injury that wrecked the end of his 2009, but his arm has been healthy for a few years now and, aside from some length in his arm stroke after he takes the ball from the glove, his arm works well. The problems with De La Rosa are obvious from a quick glance at his statistical record: He's thrown more than 140 innings in a pro season once, and he walks too many hitters. But if you want to roll the dice on a power arm who has some potential development remaining if he stays healthy and throws more strikes, De La Rosa is your guy.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Andy Pettitte[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 38 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: New York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM21
- W11
- L3
- BB41
- K101
- ERA3.28
Pettitte, when healthy, was once again a reliable midrotation arm without knockout stuff but with good control, shutting down left-handed hitters while keeping right-handed batters off balance just enough to get by. Pettitte's velocity isn't what it was during his peak; he'll reach 91 mph or 92, but at the end of 2010, he was working with a lot of 87-8. He cuts almost everything he throws other than the occasional changeup, with his fastball, cutter and curveball all running together across a long continuum of velocities. The previously durable Pettitte broke down in 2010, and even though the major injury was to his groin, he has had elbow trouble in the past and now is 38 years old with more than 3,000 big league innings on his arm. He might choose retirement, and his market is limited by his own unwillingness to pitch outside of a few cities. For the Yankees, he's probably a must-have if he'll pitch, as someone who will accept a one-year deal and should give them 25 to 30 starts without drama if he doesn't get hurt.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Jake Westbrook[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Cleveland Indians/St. Louis Cardinals [/td][/tr][/table]
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM33
- W10
- L11
- BB68
- K128
- ERA4.22
Westbrook might not have been what the Cardinals needed for the last two months of 2010, but they can't argue with what he gave them, bringing his ground ball rate back up to where it was pre-surgery, at which point he's about as good as a below-average strikeout pitcher can get. Westbrook throws a ton of sinkers and generates ground balls accordingly but also has a hard-tumbling changeup around 79-80 mph and and mediocre slurve around 76-80. He throws the breaking ball for strikes, but if he leaves it up, it's a fat pitch for any hitter with some pop. Westbrook missed 2009 after Tommy John surgery, so he's probably a good bet to stay healthy for the next few years, and his arm action doesn't put undue stress on his shoulder. If the uptick in his ground ball rate lasts -- he wouldn't be the first to gain something under Dave Duncan and lose it when he left -- he's at least a solid No. 3 starter who can work deep into a lot of games because of his control and ability to get ground balls.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]11[/td][td]Hiroki Kuroda[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Los Angeles Dodgers[/td][/tr][/table]
Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM31
- W11
- L13
- BB48
- K159
- ERA3.39
Since coming from Japan, Kuroda has been an effective major league starter by getting ground balls and avoiding walks while striking out an adequate number of hitters, all without a knockout pitch. He throws a four-seamer in the low-90 mph range and a sinker, using both frequently to start hitters or when he's behind in the count, working in his off-speed pitches once he gets ahead. Kuroda has been almost as effective against left-handed hitters as he has been against right-handers, using a soft splitter to keep lefties off his fastball (without the big tumble you typically see from splitters) but preferring his mid-80s slider (which breaks down with almost no tilt) against right-handed hitters. He repeats his delivery well with just a slight hook when his arm reaches the point farthest behind his body. He stayed healthy for all of 2010, but he did suffer shoulder tendinitis going into spring training in 2009. He missed a start with shoulder soreness in 2008 and flew from Japan to L.A. to have his elbow examined in 2007, so there are some small red flags. Because of his control and lack of a serious platoon split, he might be worth a two-year gamble, but his age and frequent-if-minor arm issues should scare teams off a longer commitment.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]12[/td][td]Paul Konerko[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 1B
'10 team: Chicago White Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM149
- HR39
- RBI111
- R89
- OBP.393
- AVG.312
Konerko looks like one of the bigger potential time bombs in this class as a low-defense, "old man's skills" slugger (the class of player who tends to decline earlier and often without much warning); he'll play in 2011 at age 35. And in Konerko's case, he's hitting free agency after a huge walk year that bore no resemblance to the three years that preceded it, with an on-base percentage 40 points above his high from 2007-09 and a slugging percentage 94 points higher. He's a dead-fastball hitter who is drifting into the older hitter's habit of "cheating" on fastballs, starting his bat early to catch up to the better velocity but leaving himself vulnerable to breaking stuff and changeups; if he doesn't start his bat early, he's late on the pitch. Once a solid-average defender at first, he's also seen declines in the field, losing range and agility to the point that he might be a better option for someone as a DH. Konerko has had an excellent career, especially for a player whose original organization gave him away, and he might have another strong year left in him, but I expect the market to overpay him based on his name and history rather than on the real risk that he's getting close to the cliff.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]13[/td][td]Derek Jeter[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SS
'10 team: New York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM157
- HR10
- RBI67
- R111
- OBP.340
- AVG.270
What do you do with a general when he stops being a general? Jeter's 2009 fWAR figure of 7.1 is the highest of any player on this list, but if you saw him at all in 2010 or look at his stat line, it's pretty clear that he's not a seven-win player any more, and at 36, he's not likely to become one again either. Right-handed pitching just chews him up, and the great two-strike approach that marked most of Jeter's peak years doesn't work when he'll chase a slider on the outer half. His glove has never been even average at short, and now that his body is slowing down the Yankees need to consider moving him to another position if they're making anything more than a one-year commitment to him, as his range to his left is almost nonexistent. He does still hit left-handed pitching well and has an excellent feel for the game, but that's not even a $10 million player, let alone a $20 million one, and certainly not one you'd give a multi-year deal if his name was Joey Bagodonuts. The Yankees have to decide what Jeter is worth in baseball terms and how much of a premium they're willing to pay to avoid a brief spell of negative PR. And Jeter has to decide whether he'd like to retire as a Yankee and get his 3,000th hit in pinstripes or whether he'd like to test the market and find out how other teams perceive his value.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]14[/td][td]Orlando Hudson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: Both Throws: R
Position: 2B
'10 team: Minnesota Twins [/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM126
- HR6
- RBI37
- R80
- OBP.338
- AVG.268
Hudson seems to have regained some of his former defensive prowess in 2010, showing more range on ground balls instead of deriving most of his defensive value from his ability to run down popups most second basemen don't reach. Unfortunately, his offensive production tanked at the same time, so now he enters the market as a 33-year-old infielder coming off his worst-ever slugging percentage and his worst OBP since 2005. A nominal switch-hitter, Hudson has generally been worse from the right side. His swing gets long as he tries to cover the ball middle-out; he stands well off the plate hitting from either side, but on the left side his hands work better and he has a smoother swing with slightly better plane. He is, no matter how many times you see a pitcher throw to first to hold him on, a below-average runner, and succeeds in the field through great reads rather than quickness. Look for him to sign another one-year deal to try to re-establish some offensive value without losing too much on defense.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]15[/td][td]Aubrey Huff[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: 1B
'10 team: San Francisco Giants [/td][/tr][/table]
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM157
- HR26
- RBI86
- R100
- OBP.385
- AVG.290
Was any single 2010 move more instrumental to the Giants winning the World Series than their scrap-heap signing of Huff last offseason? For $4 million, Huff gave the Giants four months of All-Star-caliber performances, and was kind enough to hold off his regression until after Pat Burrell arrived to take his place as the team's surprise producer. Of course, as unlikely as Huff was to hit like he did in the first half of 2010, he's nearly as unlikely to repeat it going forward. The one real skill that should carry over is his patience, as he tightened up his ability to lay off fastballs out of the zone, but the loss of bat speed he showed in 2009 wasn't just a mirage -- he's so geared up for fastballs now that sliders and decent changeups give him a lot of trouble. He's not good defensively anywhere on the field but can play a passable first base and an emergency-level left field. Huff cooled off after the trade deadline, hitting .255/.360/.426 from Aug. 1 on, and then had three extra-base hits in the postseason with a .268/.339/.357 composite line, including a home run off right-handed specialist (and miscast starter) Tommy Hunter. You could call that a small sample, but it looked to me like a return to form, and I see Huff as more of a .260/.340/.420 guy going forward, worse if he returns to the American League.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]16[/td][td]Hisashi Iwakuma[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles [/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Hisashi Iwakuma[/h4][h5]SP
Rakuten Golden Eagles[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM28
- W10
- L9
- BB36
- K153
- ERA2.82
Iwakuma projects as more of a mid- to back-of-the-rotation guy than an ace despite his record in Japan, which includes a Sawamura Award (their equivalent to the Cy Young). He pitches differently than most of the Japanese pitchers who have come over, with a more conventional delivery and a pitch-to-contact approach that yields ground balls and few walks but not many strikeouts. He's 6-foot-3 and strong, getting good downhill plane on the ball, and likes to pitch backward, throwing a lot of sliders early in the count. He has a plus two-seamer, a splitter and a big slow curveball, as well as a four-seamer that's mostly 88-92. He tries to pitch down in the zone, only elevating the ball to change a hitter's eye level, and has been more effective against left-handed hitters, throwing two-seamers away and sliders at their back feet. However, he missed most of 2006 and part of 2007 due to injury, and like most Japanese starters has a history of very heavy use. In addition, Japanese hitters are taught to swing down at the ball, which works to his advantage, but he won't have that benefit when facing MLB hitters who are geared to hit line drives. Guys who don't miss bats in an inferior league worry me, but I like Iwamura's approach and willingness to use his off-speed stuff in any count, so for a team looking for a potential No. 4, he's a solid option.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]17[/td][td]Rafael Soriano[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays [/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM64
- W3
- L2
- BB14
- K57
- ERA1.73
Soriano was one of the top closers in baseball in 2010, possibly the top guy when you consider the competition he faced in the AL East, and has now performed at that level for two years in a row. Although he's been effective against left-handed hitters, he has demolished right-handed bats to a .135/.196/.243 line over the past two years. He's fastball-cutter-slider and will add and subtract from the fastball. The slider is his best pitch, with a hard break downward with just a little "slide" to it, but the cutter runs up to 90 mph or so and keeps hitters from sitting on the fastball, breaking down as well but not as sharply as the slider does. His arm action is long and he's missed most of two separate seasons due to elbow surgeries, so there's definitely injury risk here beyond that normally associated with relievers. But he's also the best reliever in this free-agent class and the only guy with a very high probability of giving his club 70-75 good innings in high-leverage work for 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]18[/td][td]Mariano Rivera[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 40 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankeesNew York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM61
- W3
- L3
- BB11
- K45
- ERA1.80
He throws a cutter. You might see an occasional four-seamer to keep hitters honest, but at this point, batters know the cutter is coming and still can't do much except wave at it as it goes past, maybe wishing it many happy returns or something. He's absurdly stingy with walks -- his single-season high since 2005 is 11, excluding intentionals -- and he still generates a solid rate of ground balls. His strikeout rate took a big hit this year, and his contact rate was one of the worst of his career, although his velocity didn't dip and the cutter still cuts. If he was 32, I'd say it was a fluke, but at 40, it could signal the beginning of the end. I'd like to see Rivera pitch another two years, then finish out his career as closer for Team Panama in the 2013 WBC.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]19[/td][td]Manny Ramirez [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 38 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: DH
'10 team: Chicago White Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM90
- HR9
- RBI42
- R38
- OBP.409
- AVG.298
Ramirez' two-year contract with the Dodgers ended up spoiled by a PED suspension and injury, but all that served to mask the fact that his performance wasn't close to what he delivered in his stint with them in 2008. He's lost enough bat speed that when he squares a ball up it doesn't take off the way that it did for him before the 2009 season. Fastballs in tie him up, while he can only take fastballs away to the opposite field; in fact, he's been most effective as a hitter against changeups over the past two years. The explosiveness he had at the plate well into his 30s is all but gone, unfortunately; if (as I did) you had the pleasure of watching Manny hit often in his peak years, you know how you didn't dare turn away from the game or the television when he was up. Ramirez is a terrible defensive outfielder, whether through age or simply apathy, and needs to DH full-time, but will end up competing with a number of other free agents who suffer from the same limitation. However, even Reduced Manny has value because he'll get on base at a strong clip and show doubles power, so the only question for suitors is whether they can put up with the injury risk and the potential for drama.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]20[/td][td]Juan Uribe[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SS/2B
'10 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giantsSan Francisco Giants [/td][/tr][/table]
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM148
- HR24
- RBI85
- R64
- OBP.310
- AVG.248
Uribe's a dead fastball hitter who does enough with those pitches (and the occasional mistake pitch) to make himself valuable despite near-total futility against breaking balls and a chronic lack of plate discipline. He's a plus defender at second and can handle shortstop if the team can stomach the errors that come with his range, although I think his ability to play short is inversely proportional to his weight, which seems to be on the rise at this point in his career. As a hitter, you can get Uribe out with off-speed stuff and by forcing him to expand the zone, but he will crush a mistake, especially on the inner half -- it's a skill set you often see in Triple-A hitters, but the fact that he offers plus defense at second makes him unusual, with added value because he can slide over to shortstop on a temporary basis.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]21[/td][td]Brad Penny[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'10 team: St. Louis Cardinals [/td][/tr][/table]
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM9
- W3
- L4
- BB9
- K35
- ERA3.23
Penny was always about machismo on the mound -- big velocity, up in the zone, daring hitters to hit it, which often they did, particularly in his 2009 stint in the American League. In 2010, working with the invaluable Dave Duncan, Penny began working on sinking the ball more often, posting the best ground-ball rate of his career, and was on pace for an outstanding season when he strained a "lat" muscle (latissimus dorsi, which connects to the oblique muscle on your side and runs to your spine -- yes, I had to look it up) and missed the rest of the year. He did get more sink on his fastball but the pitch tended to break in toward left-handed hitters, not as sharply as a cutter but softly in a way that made it easier for them to square up, and in the tiny sample we have for Penny in St. Louis, left-handed hitters hit him better than they had in the past. Penny also began throwing his hard split-changeup more often; the pitch, usually 88-90 mph, lacks the bottom typically seen in a split but it keeps hitters from sitting on his dead-straight four-seamer. As for that injury, the Cardinals later said he tore the muscle, and Penny said he had connective tissue tear away from the bone, which might explain why he was out for so long. I like the potential for a bargain here if Penny's healthy, but if I'm a GM at the free-agent supermarket, I'm reading the list of ingredients on this one with an electron microscope.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]22[/td][td]Joaquin Benoit[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays [/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM63
- W1
- L2
- BB11
- K75
- ERA1.34
After missing all of 2009 due to rotator cuff surgery, Benoit signed a minor league deal with the Rays and ended up the best bargain of all free agents signed for the 2010 season, providing 60 innings of high-quality relief work and an ROI of a few hundred percent. Benoit's changeup has helped him become an elite setup man because he's so effective against left-handed hitters; the pitch comes in about 8-10 mph below his fastball, and has hard, late tumble with slight fade. Benoit's also throwing harder now that his shoulder is healthy and he's only working in one-inning stints, and his control went from above-average before he first hurt the shoulder to plus or better this year. He'll earn much more than the $800K he just made for Tampa, but carries the obvious risk of a recurrence of the shoulder injury, although his relatively light workload in 2010 should help keep the risk down.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]Koji Uehara[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP/RP
'10 team: Baltimore Orioles [/td][/tr][/table]
Baltimore Orioles[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM43
- W1
- L2
- BB5
- K55
- ERA2.86
Uehara's tenure with Baltimore was marred by injury but ended on a strong note as he moved to the bullpen, dialed his plus control up to grade 70 or better, and probably found his niche for the next few years. As a reliever, he's primarily fastball-splitter, locating both well. The splitter comes in at 78-82 with good tumble, and his fastball has some late life up at 86-89, giving him the ability to change a hitter's eye level, but most important is the command he shows with both pitches. For a team looking for a bargain option at closer, or hoping to find someone they can convert to the role (although Uehara did close briefly in Japan) and flip in July to a contender, he's the best option on this free-agent market.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]Jim Thome[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 40 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: DH
'10 team: Minnesota Twins [/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM108
- HR25
- RBI59
- R48
- OBP.412
- AVG.283
There's a serious glut of designated hitters, both current and projected, on the market this winter, and that might mean bad news for part-time guys like Thome, who probably shouldn't start against most left-handed pitchers. But Thome may be in better shape than his rivals for the few open DH spots if his willingness to take a major pay cut in 2010 still holds this offseason; give the man credit for recognizing that his market value had dropped and taking less than a player in his first arbitration year typically gets. Like many left-handed power hitters, he likes the ball down, and can track a changeup or curveball pretty well, helping him stay effective even as his body slows. His stance is open even through contact, but he's strong enough to drive balls on the outer half out to left center. Other than his platoon issue, the main concern regarding Thome is his ability to stay healthy, because of his age and injury history, but as a part-time DH for $2 million or so he'd be an extremely valuable asset.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]J.J. Putz[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Chicago White Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM60
- W7
- L5
- BB15
- K65
- ERA2.83
Putz, like Benoit, got healthy in 2010 after two years of pitching hurt and sitting on the shelf after surgery (Putz's was to remove a bone spur from his elbow), and now heads to the market with his value re-established. A true three-pitch reliever, Putz used his split far more often in 2010, working it as a real chase pitch below the zone after he set hitters up with his fastball, which, by the way, he's commanding more like he did before he was hurt. Given his history of elbow issues, he should probably keep the slider as his last pitch of choice, although it is a viable weapon against right-handed batters. The major risk with any pitcher who's had a bone spur in his elbow is that the spur may have damaged the elbow ligament; Putz also missed time in September with tendinitis in his knee, a concern going forward for a pitcher as heavy as Putz is. But there's the potential for above-average performance in leveraged innings here if he can stay healthy and will sign a one-year deal.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]26[/td][td]Magglio Ordonez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RF
'10 team: Detroit Tigers [/td][/tr][/table]
Detroit Tigers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM84
- HR12
- RBI59
- R56
- OBP.378
- AVG.303
Magglio's 2010 season ended in July when he broke his ankle, ruining what looked like a small contract-year push after a power outage in 2009. However, I'm concerned that Ordonez's tick upward this past year came from starting his bat a little earlier; he's out in front of a lot of changeups and looks very defensive, almost surprised, against breaking balls. That loss of bat speed is typical for sluggers in their 30s, and Ordonez doesn't have great athleticism or plus plate discipline on which he can fall back once his bat speed is gone. On defense, his best position is "hitter," so if you insist on putting him in an outfield corner expect both below-average range and an above-average risk of injury. He's a one-year flier at DH for someone, but given the ankle injury, bat speed decline and lack of defensive value, I don't see him being worth a multi-year deal.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]27[/td][td]Johnny Damon[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: OF
'10 team: Detroit Tigers [/td][/tr][/table]
Detroit Tigers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM145
- HR8
- RBI51
- R81
- OBP.355
- AVG.271
Damon hit a career-best 24 home runs in 2009, but you can probably blame that on the contract year and the home park, as it's not a swing geared for power and he doesn't use his lower half much. Instead, Damon's game is slap-and-run, which, combined with a good eye and pretty strong plate coverage, gives him some value and a chance to extend his career a few more years. Damon's unorthodox start -- he's doing some kind of two-step in the box before he comes set -- masks a pretty basic swing in which he's throwing his hands at the ball rather than trying to drive it with his hips. He's lost a step on the bases but remains a high-percentage base stealer, now 23-for-24 over the past two years. In left, Damon is solidly average and his team can compensate for the wet noodle by sending the shortstop out to receive the throw; I don't think he's even an emergency option in center at this point between the loss of speed and the arm. Give him a strong right-handed caddy for late-game matchups against lefties, and Damon could be a productive left-field solution for one year.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]28[/td][td]Vladimir Guerrero[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: DH
'10 team: Texas Rangers [/td][/tr][/table]
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM152
- HR29
- RBI115
- R83
- OBP.345
- AVG.300
I believe we have now established that Vlad Guerrero is and should remain a full-time DH, as his legs will not allow him to play right field at any level above "embarrassing." (It's not his fault that Ron Washington asked him to do something in Game 1 of the World Series that he is just not capable of doing.) He had a great three months to put himself on the All-Star team, but he doesn't get the same power from his lower half that he used to get and his bat speed is down significantly. And the fairy tale didn't last: From July 1 to the end of the season, he hit .265/.310/.419 -- the picture is no prettier if you just look at the post-All-Star break line -- and then hit .220/.242/.271 in the postseason. You can beat Vlad with good velocity, and he will chase sliders and changeups low and especially low and away. Even though his walk rate looked normal, he saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than in any year of his career for which I found data, also a bad sign for him going forward. Vlad was one of my favorite hitters from the past 20 years, speaking just as a fan, but he's just not that guy anymore, and at best he's a one-year stop-gap option at DH.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]29[/td][td]Pat Burrell[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: OF
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays/San Francisco Giants [/td][/tr][/table]
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM120
- HR20
- RBI64
- R50
- OBP.348
- AVG.252
I've heard the scouting line "He can't hit good pitching" a number of times applied to many players, but I never thought it had much value, since "good pitching" is the kind that nobody hits, otherwise it would be "bad pitching" or "Elartonic." That said, the phrase might finally have its exemplar in Burrell, who flunked out of the AL East, went bananas in the NL West, then flopped again in the World Series against more AL pitching. Like many players with "old man's skills," Burrell got old fast, and quickly; in hindsight, the decline probably started before the end of 2008 when he hurt his foot. For an NL team looking for a below-average defender in left who gets on base and can crush an NL mistake, he's a potential fit, and maybe he really did just need to get out of the AL East to rediscover his stroke. As someone who bought into Burrell two years ago, though, I'm now a skeptic.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]30[/td][td]Carlos Pena[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: First base
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays[/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM144
- HR28
- RBI84
- R64
- OBP.325
- AVG.196
A brutal walk year for someone who two years ago was among the best first basemen in the league, with great defense, patience and power. Those skills are still there, but his ability to recognize or hit off-speed stuff vanished after 2008 and has yet to return; because of those secondary skills and plus makeup, he's one of a handful of candidates to be this year's Aubrey Huff.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]31[/td][td]Jhonny Peralta[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SS/3B
'10 team: Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers[/td][/tr][/table]
Detroit Tigers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM148
- HR15
- RBI81
- R60
- OBP.311
- AVG.249
Peralta has a good swing and when he makes contact, it's hard, but his wOBA has been .311 or worse three times in five years -- including the last two -- and at 29 he's running out of time to show his peak in 2005 wasn't a stone fluke. He's a below-average defender at short, with a plus arm, who should be adequate at third if he's not constantly shuttled back and forth between that and shortstop. He's another potential out-of-nowhere bat in this class.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]32[/td][td]Derrek Lee[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 1B
'10 team: Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves[/td][/tr][/table]
Atlanta Braves[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM148
- HR19
- RBI80
- R80
- OBP.347
- AVG.260
Lee lost enough bat speed that it showed up not just in decreased power, but in his ability to get on base -- as he's forced to commit earlier to pitches. That said, he was substantially better after the All-Star break, hitting .298/.373/.516 in 63 games for Chicago and Atlanta, so clearly Lee has some life left in him. He's only 35 and was always pretty athletic for a first baseman, so it's possible he can hold off a full decline as he learns to adjust to life with slower wrists; add him to the list of potential Huffs for 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]33[/td][td]Kerry Wood[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM47
- W3
- L4
- BB29
- K49
- ERA3.13
Wood re-established some value for himself with a tremendous two-month run for the Yankees. While he's probably no longer on anyone's list for closer duty, he's a very respectable eighth-inning guy who can close in a pinch. The key to his resurgence was a sharper cut fastball that he used much more often than he did with Cleveland, which missed bats and helped his fastball play up as well.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]Hisanori Takahashi[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: New York Mets[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Mets[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM53
- W10
- L6
- BB43
- K114
- ERA3.61
Takahashi is a command, changeup lefty who was effective in a relief role but struggled in the rotation. He found that his changeup wasn't as effective against right-handed hitters once they got more looks at him. His changeup has good action and he can sweep a slider away from left-handed hitters -- in a relief role he'll miss enough bats to be valuable.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]Grant Balfour[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays[/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM57
- W2
- L1
- BB17
- K56
- ERA2.28
Balfour's M.O. is to throw hard, and if that doesn't work, to throw harder. The Australian works very heavily off his fastball, happily starting hitters off with three straight fastballs (a sequence he'll use about 80 percent of the time) before he'll throw a short, sharp-breaking slider. His control, off slightly in 2009, was back to plus in 2010, and his arm has been largely healthy for three solid years now.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]Scott Downs[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: RP
'10 team: Toronto Blue Jays[/td][/tr][/table]
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM67
- W5
- L5
- BB14
- K48
- ERA2.64
Downs is sort of a lefty-specialist-plus -- death on lefties, but not useless against righties, although his low slot and big sweepy slider will always play better against same-side hitters. He did have arm trouble earlier in his career and was worked pretty hard his first few years with Toronto, but a foot injury sustained while hitting limited his 2009 innings, and his workload was lighter in 2010.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]37[/td][td]Jon Rauch[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM59
- W3
- L1
- BB14
- K46
- ERA3.12
Rauch works mostly fastball/slider, bringing out a mid-70s curveball when he gets to two strikes on the hitter. Despite his height, he doesn't get great downhill plane or generate ground balls, and he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like a true closer to miss, particularly with his fastball. However, as a healthy reliever who throws a ton of strikes (he's walked 67 total batters in the past four years) he should find a number of one- and two-year offers.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]38[/td][td]Jesse Crain[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM71
- W1
- L1
- BB27
- K62
- ERA3.04
Crain will run his fastball up to 97 and it sits 93-94, but it's his worst pitch in terms of results and he needs to use it just to try to set up his hard mid-80s slider and big curveball. He's been largely healthy since 2007 shoulder surgery and throws just enough strikes to get by in a middle relief role, with some upside if he improves his fastball command.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]39[/td][td]Frank Francisco[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Texas Rangers[/td][/tr][/table]
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM56
- W6
- L4
- BB18
- K60
- ERA3.76
The Generalissimo's season ended early with back problems -- otherwise he'd be a bit higher on this list -- but with teams constantly sifting through the reliever pile for value, he stands out as one of the few names with upside. Francisco will pitch at 92-95 and throws a hard splitter with only average bottom but good arm speed, fooling hitters out of his hand as much as it does with its late tumble. If his medicals check out, he should draw interest from teams looking for eighth- and ninth-inning solutions.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]40[/td][td]Ramon Hernandez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Catcher
'10 team: Cincinnati Reds[/td][/tr][/table]
Cincinnati Reds[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM97
- HR7
- RBI48
- R30
- OBP.364
- AVG.297
Hernandez was barely above replacement level in 2009 but had a nice contract push in 2010, driven by what was by far the highest BABIP of his career. He won't repeat this year's performance, but can get on base a little for a catcher, has some pop and won't hurt a team with his receiving or throwing. In a market devoid of decent catching options he's worth a one-year deal.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]41[/td][td]Jason Frasor[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Toronto Blue Jays[/td][/tr][/table]
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM69
- W3
- L4
- BB27
- K65
- ERA3.68
Frasor is an excellent right-handed specialist with "closer" experience and a platoon split you can deal with. He throws a hard changeup with good fading action, but won't throw it down and in to lefties, and in trying to backdoor it he often misses the zone entirely. A new pitching coach or change of scenery could help, as he has the weapons to be more than what he is now.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]42[/td][td]Brian Fuentes[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Los Angeles Angels/Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM48
- W4
- L1
- BB20
- K47
- ERA2.81
Teams probably won't look at Fuentes as a closer option any more after a rough (but not exactly horrible) two years in Anaheim/Minnesota. However, as a middle reliever or setup man who kills lefties from his low arm slot, but remains fairly effective against righties (.203/.293/.403 in 2010), he might be slightly undervalued this winter.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]43[/td][td]Matt Guerrier[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM74
- W5
- L7
- BB22
- K42
- ERA3.17
Guerrier's an unusual reliever in that he throws four pitches, although he's primarily fastball-slider, with his fastball 91-93 but sitting up in the zone too often, and his slider in the mid- to upper 80s with hard, late break. He's pretty effective against hitters on both sides of the plate, and could be even better versus lefties if he used his hard-tumbling changeup more.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]44[/td][td]Lance Berkman[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: S Throws: L
Position: First baseman
'10 team: Houston Astros/New York Yankees[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM122
- HR14
- RBI58
- R48
- OBP.368
- AVG.248
Berkman didn't help his stock with a powerless 37-game stint for the Yankees, but as a first baseman or DH against right-handed pitching he has value for his ability to get on base and his average power. At 34, however, both age-related decline and injury risk will discourage some suitors.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]Miguel Olivo[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Catcher
'10 team: Colorado Rockies[/td][/tr][/table]
Colorado Rockies[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM112
- HR14
- RBI58
- R55
- OBP.315
- AVG.269
Those 22 unintentional walks did represent a career high, you know. Olivo has pop and is an excellent throwing catcher, and if you can live with a few extra passed balls each year, he's better than most of the other catching options on the market.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]Hideki Matsui[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: Designated hitter
'10 team: Los Angeles Angels[/td][/tr][/table]
Los Angeles Angels[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM145
- HR21
- RBI84
- R55
- OBP.361
- AVG.274
Away from the lefty-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, Matsui saw his power drop and his strikeouts rise; he opens his hips very early and if the ball is moving away from him, he struggles to adjust. He's become an automatic out against left-handed pitchers, and a non-star, part-time DH is not a good thing to be in this free-agent market.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]47[/td][td]Bill Hall[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Infielder/Outfielder
'10 team: Boston Red Sox[/td][/tr][/table]
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM120
- HR18
- RBI46
- R44
- OBP.316
- AVG.247
Now that Hall is free of that ludicrous contract, he can get back to the business of being a competent utility player who can handle six positions and won't kill you at any of them; he's actually above-average at third and second, and if he had to play short for someone for two months, his bat would make up for any loss of range there. Despite a reverse platoon split in 2010, he's also a solid right-handed bat off the bench.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]48[/td][td]Nick Johnson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Designated hitter
'10 team: New York Yankees[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM24
- HR2
- RBI8
- R12
- OBP.388
- AVG.167
[Insert standard "if healthy" disclaimer, with joke about relative unlikeliness of said state of being]
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]49[/td][td]John Buck[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Catcher
'10 team: Toronto Blue Jays[/td][/tr][/table]
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM118
- HR20
- RBI66
- R53
- OBP.314
- AVG.281
It's possible that Buck just found himself once he got out of Kansas City and had the chance to play nearly every day, or it's possible that a dead fastball hitter changed his approach to try to boost his home run total in his walk year, with a little help from Toronto's homer-friendly ballpark and a fortunate schedule.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]50[/td][td]Javier Vazquez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: New York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM31
- W10
- L10
- BB65
- K121
- ERA5.32
He was pretty good in 2009, as you might have heard around these parts, but his disastrous return to New York was accompanied by a significant loss of velocity that could signal a hidden injury. He's on this list because he's been very good in the past, and perhaps an offseason of rest will see his fastball tick back up; of course, to be safe, he should probably go back to the easier league, too.
[/h3][h3]Players in demand [/h3]
1. Cliff Lee: He was No. 1 on my overall top 50 for a reason -- even with the two World Series losses, he's the best guy on the market. I'm personally not a fan of long-term contracts for pitchers, but if you have money and can drop a five-year contract on an ace, Lee is the exception among 2010 FAs.
2. Carl Pavano: He was No. 7 on the overall top 50; some people throw him under the bus for his stint with the New York Yankees, but he's remade himself as a sinker-changeup artist and is coming off two of the best seasons of his career. He's not a good option if you play in a small park, though; he has a below-average fastball and that can make him homer-prone.
3. Jorge De La Rosa: He was No. 8 on the overall top 50; he walks too many guys and he's only thrown more than 140 innings in a professional season once. He's injury-prone (non-arm; he lost two months to a finger in 2010), but his changeup is plus, and his slider is above-average. If you want a power arm with some potential development remaining, he's a good pickup.
[h3]Players to avoid [/h3]
1. Freddy Garcia: More evidence that Don Cooper is the greatest pitching coach going? Freddy Garcia, throwing glorified BP late in 2009, was a capable fifth starter for the surprise contenders on the South Side this year, throwing more off-speed stuff than ever and perhaps finding a second act for a career that seemed to end with his trade to Philadelphia and oh-what-a-coincidence shoulder surgery. Maybe this will work in Petco or PNC parks, but I wouldn't want to be the one making that bet.
2. Jon Garland: Garland hasn't been the same since leaving the White Sox -- all hail Don Cooper -- but the career-low ERA in 2010 was a function of the pitchers' paradise of Petco Park, unless you think that his fringe-average fastball has suddenly become a bona fide swing-and-miss pitch. Garland provides value through durability but not through stuff, and with his control seemingly headed in the wrong direction it's not clear that anyone will want to run him out there for 200 innings outside of Petco.
[h4]Projecting the Starters[/h4]
How will starters fare in 2011? Dan Szymborski projects performance key free agents, and some -- such as Javy Vazquez -- who could be overlooked.
• Projecting starters
3. Javier Vazquez: I ranked Vazquez in my top 50 because of how good he was in 2009, but his performance in 2010 wasn't merely a function of pitching in New York. His velocity was down, and that's often a sign of an underlying injury, most likely something in the shoulder. If I'm a GM, I'm sniffing around on this one but signing nothing until there's a full physical and my team doctor tells me I'm just being paranoid.
[h3]More players to discuss [/h3]
1. Hisashi Iwakuma: He was No. 16 on the overall top 50; he's a 29-year-old who played for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan last year. He's more a middle-of-the-rotation guy than an ace, but he has a conventional delivery and a pitch-to-contact approach that tends to yield ground balls, not too many walks and limited strikeouts. If you need a potential No. 4 starter, he's worth a look.
2. Zack Greinke: It sounds like the Royals will at least listen to offers this winter, although with Greinke signed to a very reasonable deal through 2012, they have no urgency to make a move right away. But given how much talent they have coming, trading Greinke in the right deal could easily set them up for a couple of playoff berths in the 2013-2016 range. Greinke was off-the-charts valuable in 2009 -- more valuable than Cliff Lee was in either of the past two seasons, for example -- but his command wasn't quite as sharp in 2010, and he didn't have the same consistency on his curveball. His velocity was fine, his slider remained sharp, and he still has excellent control and a great feel for pitching. As for the depression issues that briefly derailed his career in 2006, I think it's an overblown concern for fans given the past three years of performance, durability, and zero hints of any problem that would affect him on the field.
3. Derek Lowe: Lowe actually pitched substantially better in the second half of 2010 as he ramped up the use of his slider, giving him the best swing-and-miss option he's had in some time while he also managed to cut down his walks. He turns 38 on June 1 and an acquiring team is betting on him holding that form for two more seasons, but it might be more appealing than giving up a draft pick and signing a lesser free-agent starter for three or even four years.
For the fifth straight year, Keith Law breaks down the top 50 free agents, this time for the class of 2010-11. Law's reports are based on firsthand observation. He has been the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. since 2006. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Welcome, again, to MLB free agency. It's a good class, although the 2009-10 group -- with Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey et al -- might have been better. The full list of 2010-11 MLB free agents is here.
The gems of this class are Cliff Lee (on the pitching side) and Carl Crawford (on the hitting side). Both should command large deals, although there is value to be had once you get into the 30s on this list.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Cliff Lee[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers[/td][/tr][/table]
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM28
- W12
- L9
- BB18
- K185
- ERA3.18
I understand the recent story might seem to revolve around two World Series losses, including one regrettable night when he didn't have his curveball, but over the past three years, Lee has demonstrated that he is an inner-circle No. 1 starter, one of the half-dozen best in the game at his craft. No free agent in this class has generated more value for his clubs (using FanGraphs' WAR) than Lee over the past two years, as he's been worth nearly 14 wins over a replacement pitcher during that period. As you saw in Game 5 against San Francisco, he's a classic command and control pitcher who carves up hitters despite the lack of a plus fastball. He's a four-pitch guy who can cut the fastball or throw a two-seamer, so hitters never know which way the ball is going, and when his tight, two-plane curveball is working, he throws it for strikes or below the zone for swings and misses. His arm action is easy and he hasn't had a major arm injury, but he has had minor back problems of late that could scare away a team. I'm not a fan of long-term contracts for pitchers, but if I had the money and ownership could stomach the risk of a five-year contract for an arm, Lee is the pitcher for whom I'd make an exception in this class.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Carl Crawford[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: LF
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays [/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM154
- HR19
- RBI90
- R110
- OBP.356
- AVG.307
In a thin market for position players, Crawford stands out as a young player with athleticism that should help him age well and as someone who has the ability to contribute on both sides of the ball. He is an all-pitch hitter and uses the whole field well, going to left on pitches too hard for him to pull. He set career highs in home runs and isolated power in 2010 and might maintain that for another year or two, but his overall approach didn't change substantially and it's as likely as not a walk-year spike. His main weakness at the plate remains left-handed pitching, especially balls heading away from him, which would render him a near-platoon player if it wasn't for the value he provides with his glove. Crawford is the best defensive left fielder in the game, with the speed to play center field but not the instincts, leaving him "out of position" in a way that has benefited the Rays significantly over the past five years. He's a plus-plus runner and a smart base stealer with an 83 percent success rate over the past six years. Given his body type, age and well-rounded skill set, he's one of the few free agents in this class worth a five-year commitment.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4262Jayson Werth [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RF
'10 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-philliesPhiladelphia Phillies [/td][/tr][/table]
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM156
- HR27
- RBI85
- R106
- OBP.388
- AVG.296
Werth has been a fairly complete player over the past two seasons, showing patience and power with plus defense in right field while adding value on the bases. But given his age, he's closer to the end of his peak years than the beginning. Werth is 6-foot-5, lanky and athletic, but unlike a lot of hitters with long arms, he likes the ball on the inner half, keeping his hands inside the ball extremely well. He showed a pronounced home/road split in 2010, always a concern for a position player whose home park is hitter-friendly, with 61 percent of his home runs coming at Citizens Bank Park since the start of 2009. Werth has been healthy for two full, consecutive years but missed all of 2006 and most of 2007 due to wrist surgeries, and has had knee problems that date back to his days as a catching prospect in the Baltimore and Toronto systems before he moved to the outfield in 2002. Knee problems tend to get worse as a player reaches his mid- to late-30s, so while Werth is healthy at the moment, a long-term commitment involves some extra risk in his case.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Adrian Beltre[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 3B
'10 team: Boston Red Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM154
- HR28
- RBI102
- R84
- OBP.365
- AVG.321
Beltre had a chance to do this in 2009, also a walk year for him, but a modest year looked awful because of the way Safeco kills right-handed power hitters. Still, even an aggressive ballpark adjustment couldn't have forecasted the year Beltre had in 2010, hitting at home and on the road, lefties and righties, for doubles and home run power and plenty of contact. He was fully healthy in 2010 for the first time in more than a year and seemed to tighten up his two-strike approach, rarely getting beaten in the zone in those counts. Despite the huge year, there's the obvious concern about the last time Beltre's performance spiked upward during a contract push (as it did in 2004), a level he couldn't maintain in five years in Seattle. Also, his tendency to try to pull the ball can produce a lot of hard groundouts to third and weakly hit balls to right field with a little bad luck. He's an outstanding defensive third baseman with quick reflexes, great hands and a plus arm, and if healthy, he should remain so for three or four more years.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Victor Martinez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: Both Throws: R
Position: C
'10 team: Boston Red Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM127
- HR20
- RBI79
- R64
- OBP.351
- AVG.302
Outside of an injury-wracked 2008, Martinez has been an extremely consistent offensive catcher but one whose problems behind the plate have steadily worsened over the course of his big league career. Right-handed, he gets good hip rotation and can drive the ball the other way, so even though he doesn't have great loft in his swing, he does have above-average power from that side. Left-handed, he gets pretty good hip rotation as well but cuts himself off with a late stride and closed stance, leaving his plate coverage lacking on the outer half. His 35 unintentional walks gave him the worst walk rate of his career, even worse than in 2008, as he seemed to trade patience for earlier contact and more power than in 2009. As a catcher, Martinez is unable to control the running game -- just ask the Rangers -- and leaving him back there represents a calculated trade-off to gain offense at the cost of an additional base or two (or seven) against a team that likes to run. He'll probably end up at first base by the time a four-year contract is up.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Adam Dunn[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: 1B/DH
'10 team: Washington Nationals [/td][/tr][/table]
Washington Nationals[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM158
- HR38
- RBI103
- R85
- OBP.356
- AVG.260
Adam Dunn is a classic "old man's skills" player, showing patience and power with no speed and little defensive value even in his mid- to late 20s. After six straight years of 100 or more walks, Dunn had his lowest full-season walk total in 2010, and it wasn't just a fluke -- he saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance of his career. Was it a change in approach because of his impending walk year, an attempt to swing the bat more and produce more "traditional" results? If so, it didn't help, as his average didn't budge and he matched his 2009 home run total. But he also seemed to be looking more for fastballs he could drive, and became more susceptible than before to sliders and changeups because he was so much more pull-oriented. Dunn is best suited to DH duty, and his bat certainly will play there for several more years, but he did show in 2010 that given regular playing time at first, he could be at least below average there, rather than an outright disaster. He's just not mobile enough to cover any ground there or in an outfield corner, and it's clear that his primary interest is hitting. He does that so well, though, that it's a problem only for people more concerned with whether or not he likes baseball than whether or not he helps his team win. The change in approach and potential loss of 30 to 40 points of on-base percentage going forward should hold down his potential offers, as teams most likely to value what Dunn offers are the same ones most likely to worry about the change in his performance in 2010.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Carl Pavano[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM32
- W17
- L11
- BB37
- K117
- ERA3.75
Pavano has become a bit of a joke among fans and even a little within the game because of his disastrous four-year run with the Yankees, but it is entirely possible Pavano's problem wasn't mental but physical. He was hurt more or less when he walked in the door and didn't get fully healthy until several months after he left, by which point he was in Cleveland and headed for Minnesota, where he just turned in one of the two best seasons of his career -- maybe his best, really, when you consider the league difference. He has remade himself as a sinker-changeup artist, throwing the changeup in almost any count and using it heavily with two strikes, and has rediscovered the plus control and above-average command that made him so effective for Florida in 2003 and '04. The risk with him now, beyond injury, is that pitchers with below-average fastballs tend to be homer-prone, and Pavano is not a great option for teams in small ballparks. But as an innings-eater who gets some ground balls and doesn't show a massive platoon split, he's a viable mid-rotation to back-end starter.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Jorge De La Rosa[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Colorado Rockies [/td][/tr][/table]
Colorado Rockies[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM20
- W8
- L7
- BB55
- K113
- ERA4.22
When De La Rosa is 100 percent, he'll work at 92-97 mph with a plus changeup, an above-average slider and a fringe-average curveball with good depth but a big break that makes it easier for hitters to pick it up. The changeup is his best pitch, more of an arm-speed weapon than an action changeup, and he extends well out front so hitters have very little time to try to figure out whether it's coming in at 94 or 84. De La Rosa has had a lot of non-arm injuries, from the finger injury that cost him two months of 2010 to the groin injury that wrecked the end of his 2009, but his arm has been healthy for a few years now and, aside from some length in his arm stroke after he takes the ball from the glove, his arm works well. The problems with De La Rosa are obvious from a quick glance at his statistical record: He's thrown more than 140 innings in a pro season once, and he walks too many hitters. But if you want to roll the dice on a power arm who has some potential development remaining if he stays healthy and throws more strikes, De La Rosa is your guy.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Andy Pettitte[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 38 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: New York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM21
- W11
- L3
- BB41
- K101
- ERA3.28
Pettitte, when healthy, was once again a reliable midrotation arm without knockout stuff but with good control, shutting down left-handed hitters while keeping right-handed batters off balance just enough to get by. Pettitte's velocity isn't what it was during his peak; he'll reach 91 mph or 92, but at the end of 2010, he was working with a lot of 87-8. He cuts almost everything he throws other than the occasional changeup, with his fastball, cutter and curveball all running together across a long continuum of velocities. The previously durable Pettitte broke down in 2010, and even though the major injury was to his groin, he has had elbow trouble in the past and now is 38 years old with more than 3,000 big league innings on his arm. He might choose retirement, and his market is limited by his own unwillingness to pitch outside of a few cities. For the Yankees, he's probably a must-have if he'll pitch, as someone who will accept a one-year deal and should give them 25 to 30 starts without drama if he doesn't get hurt.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Jake Westbrook[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Cleveland Indians/St. Louis Cardinals [/td][/tr][/table]
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM33
- W10
- L11
- BB68
- K128
- ERA4.22
Westbrook might not have been what the Cardinals needed for the last two months of 2010, but they can't argue with what he gave them, bringing his ground ball rate back up to where it was pre-surgery, at which point he's about as good as a below-average strikeout pitcher can get. Westbrook throws a ton of sinkers and generates ground balls accordingly but also has a hard-tumbling changeup around 79-80 mph and and mediocre slurve around 76-80. He throws the breaking ball for strikes, but if he leaves it up, it's a fat pitch for any hitter with some pop. Westbrook missed 2009 after Tommy John surgery, so he's probably a good bet to stay healthy for the next few years, and his arm action doesn't put undue stress on his shoulder. If the uptick in his ground ball rate lasts -- he wouldn't be the first to gain something under Dave Duncan and lose it when he left -- he's at least a solid No. 3 starter who can work deep into a lot of games because of his control and ability to get ground balls.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]11[/td][td]Hiroki Kuroda[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: Los Angeles Dodgers[/td][/tr][/table]
Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM31
- W11
- L13
- BB48
- K159
- ERA3.39
Since coming from Japan, Kuroda has been an effective major league starter by getting ground balls and avoiding walks while striking out an adequate number of hitters, all without a knockout pitch. He throws a four-seamer in the low-90 mph range and a sinker, using both frequently to start hitters or when he's behind in the count, working in his off-speed pitches once he gets ahead. Kuroda has been almost as effective against left-handed hitters as he has been against right-handers, using a soft splitter to keep lefties off his fastball (without the big tumble you typically see from splitters) but preferring his mid-80s slider (which breaks down with almost no tilt) against right-handed hitters. He repeats his delivery well with just a slight hook when his arm reaches the point farthest behind his body. He stayed healthy for all of 2010, but he did suffer shoulder tendinitis going into spring training in 2009. He missed a start with shoulder soreness in 2008 and flew from Japan to L.A. to have his elbow examined in 2007, so there are some small red flags. Because of his control and lack of a serious platoon split, he might be worth a two-year gamble, but his age and frequent-if-minor arm issues should scare teams off a longer commitment.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]12[/td][td]Paul Konerko[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 1B
'10 team: Chicago White Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM149
- HR39
- RBI111
- R89
- OBP.393
- AVG.312
Konerko looks like one of the bigger potential time bombs in this class as a low-defense, "old man's skills" slugger (the class of player who tends to decline earlier and often without much warning); he'll play in 2011 at age 35. And in Konerko's case, he's hitting free agency after a huge walk year that bore no resemblance to the three years that preceded it, with an on-base percentage 40 points above his high from 2007-09 and a slugging percentage 94 points higher. He's a dead-fastball hitter who is drifting into the older hitter's habit of "cheating" on fastballs, starting his bat early to catch up to the better velocity but leaving himself vulnerable to breaking stuff and changeups; if he doesn't start his bat early, he's late on the pitch. Once a solid-average defender at first, he's also seen declines in the field, losing range and agility to the point that he might be a better option for someone as a DH. Konerko has had an excellent career, especially for a player whose original organization gave him away, and he might have another strong year left in him, but I expect the market to overpay him based on his name and history rather than on the real risk that he's getting close to the cliff.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]13[/td][td]Derek Jeter[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SS
'10 team: New York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM157
- HR10
- RBI67
- R111
- OBP.340
- AVG.270
What do you do with a general when he stops being a general? Jeter's 2009 fWAR figure of 7.1 is the highest of any player on this list, but if you saw him at all in 2010 or look at his stat line, it's pretty clear that he's not a seven-win player any more, and at 36, he's not likely to become one again either. Right-handed pitching just chews him up, and the great two-strike approach that marked most of Jeter's peak years doesn't work when he'll chase a slider on the outer half. His glove has never been even average at short, and now that his body is slowing down the Yankees need to consider moving him to another position if they're making anything more than a one-year commitment to him, as his range to his left is almost nonexistent. He does still hit left-handed pitching well and has an excellent feel for the game, but that's not even a $10 million player, let alone a $20 million one, and certainly not one you'd give a multi-year deal if his name was Joey Bagodonuts. The Yankees have to decide what Jeter is worth in baseball terms and how much of a premium they're willing to pay to avoid a brief spell of negative PR. And Jeter has to decide whether he'd like to retire as a Yankee and get his 3,000th hit in pinstripes or whether he'd like to test the market and find out how other teams perceive his value.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]14[/td][td]Orlando Hudson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: Both Throws: R
Position: 2B
'10 team: Minnesota Twins [/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM126
- HR6
- RBI37
- R80
- OBP.338
- AVG.268
Hudson seems to have regained some of his former defensive prowess in 2010, showing more range on ground balls instead of deriving most of his defensive value from his ability to run down popups most second basemen don't reach. Unfortunately, his offensive production tanked at the same time, so now he enters the market as a 33-year-old infielder coming off his worst-ever slugging percentage and his worst OBP since 2005. A nominal switch-hitter, Hudson has generally been worse from the right side. His swing gets long as he tries to cover the ball middle-out; he stands well off the plate hitting from either side, but on the left side his hands work better and he has a smoother swing with slightly better plane. He is, no matter how many times you see a pitcher throw to first to hold him on, a below-average runner, and succeeds in the field through great reads rather than quickness. Look for him to sign another one-year deal to try to re-establish some offensive value without losing too much on defense.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]15[/td][td]Aubrey Huff[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: 1B
'10 team: San Francisco Giants [/td][/tr][/table]
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM157
- HR26
- RBI86
- R100
- OBP.385
- AVG.290
Was any single 2010 move more instrumental to the Giants winning the World Series than their scrap-heap signing of Huff last offseason? For $4 million, Huff gave the Giants four months of All-Star-caliber performances, and was kind enough to hold off his regression until after Pat Burrell arrived to take his place as the team's surprise producer. Of course, as unlikely as Huff was to hit like he did in the first half of 2010, he's nearly as unlikely to repeat it going forward. The one real skill that should carry over is his patience, as he tightened up his ability to lay off fastballs out of the zone, but the loss of bat speed he showed in 2009 wasn't just a mirage -- he's so geared up for fastballs now that sliders and decent changeups give him a lot of trouble. He's not good defensively anywhere on the field but can play a passable first base and an emergency-level left field. Huff cooled off after the trade deadline, hitting .255/.360/.426 from Aug. 1 on, and then had three extra-base hits in the postseason with a .268/.339/.357 composite line, including a home run off right-handed specialist (and miscast starter) Tommy Hunter. You could call that a small sample, but it looked to me like a return to form, and I see Huff as more of a .260/.340/.420 guy going forward, worse if he returns to the American League.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]16[/td][td]Hisashi Iwakuma[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles [/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Hisashi Iwakuma[/h4][h5]SP
Rakuten Golden Eagles[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM28
- W10
- L9
- BB36
- K153
- ERA2.82
Iwakuma projects as more of a mid- to back-of-the-rotation guy than an ace despite his record in Japan, which includes a Sawamura Award (their equivalent to the Cy Young). He pitches differently than most of the Japanese pitchers who have come over, with a more conventional delivery and a pitch-to-contact approach that yields ground balls and few walks but not many strikeouts. He's 6-foot-3 and strong, getting good downhill plane on the ball, and likes to pitch backward, throwing a lot of sliders early in the count. He has a plus two-seamer, a splitter and a big slow curveball, as well as a four-seamer that's mostly 88-92. He tries to pitch down in the zone, only elevating the ball to change a hitter's eye level, and has been more effective against left-handed hitters, throwing two-seamers away and sliders at their back feet. However, he missed most of 2006 and part of 2007 due to injury, and like most Japanese starters has a history of very heavy use. In addition, Japanese hitters are taught to swing down at the ball, which works to his advantage, but he won't have that benefit when facing MLB hitters who are geared to hit line drives. Guys who don't miss bats in an inferior league worry me, but I like Iwamura's approach and willingness to use his off-speed stuff in any count, so for a team looking for a potential No. 4, he's a solid option.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]17[/td][td]Rafael Soriano[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays [/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM64
- W3
- L2
- BB14
- K57
- ERA1.73
Soriano was one of the top closers in baseball in 2010, possibly the top guy when you consider the competition he faced in the AL East, and has now performed at that level for two years in a row. Although he's been effective against left-handed hitters, he has demolished right-handed bats to a .135/.196/.243 line over the past two years. He's fastball-cutter-slider and will add and subtract from the fastball. The slider is his best pitch, with a hard break downward with just a little "slide" to it, but the cutter runs up to 90 mph or so and keeps hitters from sitting on the fastball, breaking down as well but not as sharply as the slider does. His arm action is long and he's missed most of two separate seasons due to elbow surgeries, so there's definitely injury risk here beyond that normally associated with relievers. But he's also the best reliever in this free-agent class and the only guy with a very high probability of giving his club 70-75 good innings in high-leverage work for 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]18[/td][td]Mariano Rivera[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 40 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankeesNew York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM61
- W3
- L3
- BB11
- K45
- ERA1.80
He throws a cutter. You might see an occasional four-seamer to keep hitters honest, but at this point, batters know the cutter is coming and still can't do much except wave at it as it goes past, maybe wishing it many happy returns or something. He's absurdly stingy with walks -- his single-season high since 2005 is 11, excluding intentionals -- and he still generates a solid rate of ground balls. His strikeout rate took a big hit this year, and his contact rate was one of the worst of his career, although his velocity didn't dip and the cutter still cuts. If he was 32, I'd say it was a fluke, but at 40, it could signal the beginning of the end. I'd like to see Rivera pitch another two years, then finish out his career as closer for Team Panama in the 2013 WBC.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]19[/td][td]Manny Ramirez [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 38 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: DH
'10 team: Chicago White Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM90
- HR9
- RBI42
- R38
- OBP.409
- AVG.298
Ramirez' two-year contract with the Dodgers ended up spoiled by a PED suspension and injury, but all that served to mask the fact that his performance wasn't close to what he delivered in his stint with them in 2008. He's lost enough bat speed that when he squares a ball up it doesn't take off the way that it did for him before the 2009 season. Fastballs in tie him up, while he can only take fastballs away to the opposite field; in fact, he's been most effective as a hitter against changeups over the past two years. The explosiveness he had at the plate well into his 30s is all but gone, unfortunately; if (as I did) you had the pleasure of watching Manny hit often in his peak years, you know how you didn't dare turn away from the game or the television when he was up. Ramirez is a terrible defensive outfielder, whether through age or simply apathy, and needs to DH full-time, but will end up competing with a number of other free agents who suffer from the same limitation. However, even Reduced Manny has value because he'll get on base at a strong clip and show doubles power, so the only question for suitors is whether they can put up with the injury risk and the potential for drama.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]20[/td][td]Juan Uribe[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SS/2B
'10 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giantsSan Francisco Giants [/td][/tr][/table]
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM148
- HR24
- RBI85
- R64
- OBP.310
- AVG.248
Uribe's a dead fastball hitter who does enough with those pitches (and the occasional mistake pitch) to make himself valuable despite near-total futility against breaking balls and a chronic lack of plate discipline. He's a plus defender at second and can handle shortstop if the team can stomach the errors that come with his range, although I think his ability to play short is inversely proportional to his weight, which seems to be on the rise at this point in his career. As a hitter, you can get Uribe out with off-speed stuff and by forcing him to expand the zone, but he will crush a mistake, especially on the inner half -- it's a skill set you often see in Triple-A hitters, but the fact that he offers plus defense at second makes him unusual, with added value because he can slide over to shortstop on a temporary basis.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]21[/td][td]Brad Penny[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'10 team: St. Louis Cardinals [/td][/tr][/table]
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM9
- W3
- L4
- BB9
- K35
- ERA3.23
Penny was always about machismo on the mound -- big velocity, up in the zone, daring hitters to hit it, which often they did, particularly in his 2009 stint in the American League. In 2010, working with the invaluable Dave Duncan, Penny began working on sinking the ball more often, posting the best ground-ball rate of his career, and was on pace for an outstanding season when he strained a "lat" muscle (latissimus dorsi, which connects to the oblique muscle on your side and runs to your spine -- yes, I had to look it up) and missed the rest of the year. He did get more sink on his fastball but the pitch tended to break in toward left-handed hitters, not as sharply as a cutter but softly in a way that made it easier for them to square up, and in the tiny sample we have for Penny in St. Louis, left-handed hitters hit him better than they had in the past. Penny also began throwing his hard split-changeup more often; the pitch, usually 88-90 mph, lacks the bottom typically seen in a split but it keeps hitters from sitting on his dead-straight four-seamer. As for that injury, the Cardinals later said he tore the muscle, and Penny said he had connective tissue tear away from the bone, which might explain why he was out for so long. I like the potential for a bargain here if Penny's healthy, but if I'm a GM at the free-agent supermarket, I'm reading the list of ingredients on this one with an electron microscope.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]22[/td][td]Joaquin Benoit[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays [/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM63
- W1
- L2
- BB11
- K75
- ERA1.34
After missing all of 2009 due to rotator cuff surgery, Benoit signed a minor league deal with the Rays and ended up the best bargain of all free agents signed for the 2010 season, providing 60 innings of high-quality relief work and an ROI of a few hundred percent. Benoit's changeup has helped him become an elite setup man because he's so effective against left-handed hitters; the pitch comes in about 8-10 mph below his fastball, and has hard, late tumble with slight fade. Benoit's also throwing harder now that his shoulder is healthy and he's only working in one-inning stints, and his control went from above-average before he first hurt the shoulder to plus or better this year. He'll earn much more than the $800K he just made for Tampa, but carries the obvious risk of a recurrence of the shoulder injury, although his relatively light workload in 2010 should help keep the risk down.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]Koji Uehara[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP/RP
'10 team: Baltimore Orioles [/td][/tr][/table]
Baltimore Orioles[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM43
- W1
- L2
- BB5
- K55
- ERA2.86
Uehara's tenure with Baltimore was marred by injury but ended on a strong note as he moved to the bullpen, dialed his plus control up to grade 70 or better, and probably found his niche for the next few years. As a reliever, he's primarily fastball-splitter, locating both well. The splitter comes in at 78-82 with good tumble, and his fastball has some late life up at 86-89, giving him the ability to change a hitter's eye level, but most important is the command he shows with both pitches. For a team looking for a bargain option at closer, or hoping to find someone they can convert to the role (although Uehara did close briefly in Japan) and flip in July to a contender, he's the best option on this free-agent market.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]Jim Thome[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 40 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: DH
'10 team: Minnesota Twins [/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM108
- HR25
- RBI59
- R48
- OBP.412
- AVG.283
There's a serious glut of designated hitters, both current and projected, on the market this winter, and that might mean bad news for part-time guys like Thome, who probably shouldn't start against most left-handed pitchers. But Thome may be in better shape than his rivals for the few open DH spots if his willingness to take a major pay cut in 2010 still holds this offseason; give the man credit for recognizing that his market value had dropped and taking less than a player in his first arbitration year typically gets. Like many left-handed power hitters, he likes the ball down, and can track a changeup or curveball pretty well, helping him stay effective even as his body slows. His stance is open even through contact, but he's strong enough to drive balls on the outer half out to left center. Other than his platoon issue, the main concern regarding Thome is his ability to stay healthy, because of his age and injury history, but as a part-time DH for $2 million or so he'd be an extremely valuable asset.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]J.J. Putz[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Chicago White Sox [/td][/tr][/table]
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM60
- W7
- L5
- BB15
- K65
- ERA2.83
Putz, like Benoit, got healthy in 2010 after two years of pitching hurt and sitting on the shelf after surgery (Putz's was to remove a bone spur from his elbow), and now heads to the market with his value re-established. A true three-pitch reliever, Putz used his split far more often in 2010, working it as a real chase pitch below the zone after he set hitters up with his fastball, which, by the way, he's commanding more like he did before he was hurt. Given his history of elbow issues, he should probably keep the slider as his last pitch of choice, although it is a viable weapon against right-handed batters. The major risk with any pitcher who's had a bone spur in his elbow is that the spur may have damaged the elbow ligament; Putz also missed time in September with tendinitis in his knee, a concern going forward for a pitcher as heavy as Putz is. But there's the potential for above-average performance in leveraged innings here if he can stay healthy and will sign a one-year deal.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]26[/td][td]Magglio Ordonez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RF
'10 team: Detroit Tigers [/td][/tr][/table]
Detroit Tigers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM84
- HR12
- RBI59
- R56
- OBP.378
- AVG.303
Magglio's 2010 season ended in July when he broke his ankle, ruining what looked like a small contract-year push after a power outage in 2009. However, I'm concerned that Ordonez's tick upward this past year came from starting his bat a little earlier; he's out in front of a lot of changeups and looks very defensive, almost surprised, against breaking balls. That loss of bat speed is typical for sluggers in their 30s, and Ordonez doesn't have great athleticism or plus plate discipline on which he can fall back once his bat speed is gone. On defense, his best position is "hitter," so if you insist on putting him in an outfield corner expect both below-average range and an above-average risk of injury. He's a one-year flier at DH for someone, but given the ankle injury, bat speed decline and lack of defensive value, I don't see him being worth a multi-year deal.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]27[/td][td]Johnny Damon[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: OF
'10 team: Detroit Tigers [/td][/tr][/table]
Detroit Tigers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM145
- HR8
- RBI51
- R81
- OBP.355
- AVG.271
Damon hit a career-best 24 home runs in 2009, but you can probably blame that on the contract year and the home park, as it's not a swing geared for power and he doesn't use his lower half much. Instead, Damon's game is slap-and-run, which, combined with a good eye and pretty strong plate coverage, gives him some value and a chance to extend his career a few more years. Damon's unorthodox start -- he's doing some kind of two-step in the box before he comes set -- masks a pretty basic swing in which he's throwing his hands at the ball rather than trying to drive it with his hips. He's lost a step on the bases but remains a high-percentage base stealer, now 23-for-24 over the past two years. In left, Damon is solidly average and his team can compensate for the wet noodle by sending the shortstop out to receive the throw; I don't think he's even an emergency option in center at this point between the loss of speed and the arm. Give him a strong right-handed caddy for late-game matchups against lefties, and Damon could be a productive left-field solution for one year.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]28[/td][td]Vladimir Guerrero[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: DH
'10 team: Texas Rangers [/td][/tr][/table]
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM152
- HR29
- RBI115
- R83
- OBP.345
- AVG.300
I believe we have now established that Vlad Guerrero is and should remain a full-time DH, as his legs will not allow him to play right field at any level above "embarrassing." (It's not his fault that Ron Washington asked him to do something in Game 1 of the World Series that he is just not capable of doing.) He had a great three months to put himself on the All-Star team, but he doesn't get the same power from his lower half that he used to get and his bat speed is down significantly. And the fairy tale didn't last: From July 1 to the end of the season, he hit .265/.310/.419 -- the picture is no prettier if you just look at the post-All-Star break line -- and then hit .220/.242/.271 in the postseason. You can beat Vlad with good velocity, and he will chase sliders and changeups low and especially low and away. Even though his walk rate looked normal, he saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than in any year of his career for which I found data, also a bad sign for him going forward. Vlad was one of my favorite hitters from the past 20 years, speaking just as a fan, but he's just not that guy anymore, and at best he's a one-year stop-gap option at DH.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]29[/td][td]Pat Burrell[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: OF
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays/San Francisco Giants [/td][/tr][/table]
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM120
- HR20
- RBI64
- R50
- OBP.348
- AVG.252
I've heard the scouting line "He can't hit good pitching" a number of times applied to many players, but I never thought it had much value, since "good pitching" is the kind that nobody hits, otherwise it would be "bad pitching" or "Elartonic." That said, the phrase might finally have its exemplar in Burrell, who flunked out of the AL East, went bananas in the NL West, then flopped again in the World Series against more AL pitching. Like many players with "old man's skills," Burrell got old fast, and quickly; in hindsight, the decline probably started before the end of 2008 when he hurt his foot. For an NL team looking for a below-average defender in left who gets on base and can crush an NL mistake, he's a potential fit, and maybe he really did just need to get out of the AL East to rediscover his stroke. As someone who bought into Burrell two years ago, though, I'm now a skeptic.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]30[/td][td]Carlos Pena[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: First base
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays[/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM144
- HR28
- RBI84
- R64
- OBP.325
- AVG.196
A brutal walk year for someone who two years ago was among the best first basemen in the league, with great defense, patience and power. Those skills are still there, but his ability to recognize or hit off-speed stuff vanished after 2008 and has yet to return; because of those secondary skills and plus makeup, he's one of a handful of candidates to be this year's Aubrey Huff.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]31[/td][td]Jhonny Peralta[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SS/3B
'10 team: Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers[/td][/tr][/table]
Detroit Tigers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM148
- HR15
- RBI81
- R60
- OBP.311
- AVG.249
Peralta has a good swing and when he makes contact, it's hard, but his wOBA has been .311 or worse three times in five years -- including the last two -- and at 29 he's running out of time to show his peak in 2005 wasn't a stone fluke. He's a below-average defender at short, with a plus arm, who should be adequate at third if he's not constantly shuttled back and forth between that and shortstop. He's another potential out-of-nowhere bat in this class.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]32[/td][td]Derrek Lee[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 1B
'10 team: Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves[/td][/tr][/table]
Atlanta Braves[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM148
- HR19
- RBI80
- R80
- OBP.347
- AVG.260
Lee lost enough bat speed that it showed up not just in decreased power, but in his ability to get on base -- as he's forced to commit earlier to pitches. That said, he was substantially better after the All-Star break, hitting .298/.373/.516 in 63 games for Chicago and Atlanta, so clearly Lee has some life left in him. He's only 35 and was always pretty athletic for a first baseman, so it's possible he can hold off a full decline as he learns to adjust to life with slower wrists; add him to the list of potential Huffs for 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]33[/td][td]Kerry Wood[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM47
- W3
- L4
- BB29
- K49
- ERA3.13
Wood re-established some value for himself with a tremendous two-month run for the Yankees. While he's probably no longer on anyone's list for closer duty, he's a very respectable eighth-inning guy who can close in a pinch. The key to his resurgence was a sharper cut fastball that he used much more often than he did with Cleveland, which missed bats and helped his fastball play up as well.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]Hisanori Takahashi[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: New York Mets[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Mets[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM53
- W10
- L6
- BB43
- K114
- ERA3.61
Takahashi is a command, changeup lefty who was effective in a relief role but struggled in the rotation. He found that his changeup wasn't as effective against right-handed hitters once they got more looks at him. His changeup has good action and he can sweep a slider away from left-handed hitters -- in a relief role he'll miss enough bats to be valuable.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]Grant Balfour[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Tampa Bay Rays[/td][/tr][/table]
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM57
- W2
- L1
- BB17
- K56
- ERA2.28
Balfour's M.O. is to throw hard, and if that doesn't work, to throw harder. The Australian works very heavily off his fastball, happily starting hitters off with three straight fastballs (a sequence he'll use about 80 percent of the time) before he'll throw a short, sharp-breaking slider. His control, off slightly in 2009, was back to plus in 2010, and his arm has been largely healthy for three solid years now.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]Scott Downs[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: RP
'10 team: Toronto Blue Jays[/td][/tr][/table]
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM67
- W5
- L5
- BB14
- K48
- ERA2.64
Downs is sort of a lefty-specialist-plus -- death on lefties, but not useless against righties, although his low slot and big sweepy slider will always play better against same-side hitters. He did have arm trouble earlier in his career and was worked pretty hard his first few years with Toronto, but a foot injury sustained while hitting limited his 2009 innings, and his workload was lighter in 2010.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]37[/td][td]Jon Rauch[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM59
- W3
- L1
- BB14
- K46
- ERA3.12
Rauch works mostly fastball/slider, bringing out a mid-70s curveball when he gets to two strikes on the hitter. Despite his height, he doesn't get great downhill plane or generate ground balls, and he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like a true closer to miss, particularly with his fastball. However, as a healthy reliever who throws a ton of strikes (he's walked 67 total batters in the past four years) he should find a number of one- and two-year offers.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]38[/td][td]Jesse Crain[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM71
- W1
- L1
- BB27
- K62
- ERA3.04
Crain will run his fastball up to 97 and it sits 93-94, but it's his worst pitch in terms of results and he needs to use it just to try to set up his hard mid-80s slider and big curveball. He's been largely healthy since 2007 shoulder surgery and throws just enough strikes to get by in a middle relief role, with some upside if he improves his fastball command.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]39[/td][td]Frank Francisco[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RP
'10 team: Texas Rangers[/td][/tr][/table]
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM56
- W6
- L4
- BB18
- K60
- ERA3.76
The Generalissimo's season ended early with back problems -- otherwise he'd be a bit higher on this list -- but with teams constantly sifting through the reliever pile for value, he stands out as one of the few names with upside. Francisco will pitch at 92-95 and throws a hard splitter with only average bottom but good arm speed, fooling hitters out of his hand as much as it does with its late tumble. If his medicals check out, he should draw interest from teams looking for eighth- and ninth-inning solutions.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]40[/td][td]Ramon Hernandez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Catcher
'10 team: Cincinnati Reds[/td][/tr][/table]
Cincinnati Reds[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM97
- HR7
- RBI48
- R30
- OBP.364
- AVG.297
Hernandez was barely above replacement level in 2009 but had a nice contract push in 2010, driven by what was by far the highest BABIP of his career. He won't repeat this year's performance, but can get on base a little for a catcher, has some pop and won't hurt a team with his receiving or throwing. In a market devoid of decent catching options he's worth a one-year deal.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]41[/td][td]Jason Frasor[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Toronto Blue Jays[/td][/tr][/table]
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM69
- W3
- L4
- BB27
- K65
- ERA3.68
Frasor is an excellent right-handed specialist with "closer" experience and a platoon split you can deal with. He throws a hard changeup with good fading action, but won't throw it down and in to lefties, and in trying to backdoor it he often misses the zone entirely. A new pitching coach or change of scenery could help, as he has the weapons to be more than what he is now.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]42[/td][td]Brian Fuentes[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Los Angeles Angels/Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM48
- W4
- L1
- BB20
- K47
- ERA2.81
Teams probably won't look at Fuentes as a closer option any more after a rough (but not exactly horrible) two years in Anaheim/Minnesota. However, as a middle reliever or setup man who kills lefties from his low arm slot, but remains fairly effective against righties (.203/.293/.403 in 2010), he might be slightly undervalued this winter.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]43[/td][td]Matt Guerrier[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'10 team: Minnesota Twins[/td][/tr][/table]
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM74
- W5
- L7
- BB22
- K42
- ERA3.17
Guerrier's an unusual reliever in that he throws four pitches, although he's primarily fastball-slider, with his fastball 91-93 but sitting up in the zone too often, and his slider in the mid- to upper 80s with hard, late break. He's pretty effective against hitters on both sides of the plate, and could be even better versus lefties if he used his hard-tumbling changeup more.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]44[/td][td]Lance Berkman[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: S Throws: L
Position: First baseman
'10 team: Houston Astros/New York Yankees[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM122
- HR14
- RBI58
- R48
- OBP.368
- AVG.248
Berkman didn't help his stock with a powerless 37-game stint for the Yankees, but as a first baseman or DH against right-handed pitching he has value for his ability to get on base and his average power. At 34, however, both age-related decline and injury risk will discourage some suitors.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]Miguel Olivo[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Catcher
'10 team: Colorado Rockies[/td][/tr][/table]
Colorado Rockies[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM112
- HR14
- RBI58
- R55
- OBP.315
- AVG.269
Those 22 unintentional walks did represent a career high, you know. Olivo has pop and is an excellent throwing catcher, and if you can live with a few extra passed balls each year, he's better than most of the other catching options on the market.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]Hideki Matsui[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 36 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: Designated hitter
'10 team: Los Angeles Angels[/td][/tr][/table]
Los Angeles Angels[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM145
- HR21
- RBI84
- R55
- OBP.361
- AVG.274
Away from the lefty-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, Matsui saw his power drop and his strikeouts rise; he opens his hips very early and if the ball is moving away from him, he struggles to adjust. He's become an automatic out against left-handed pitchers, and a non-star, part-time DH is not a good thing to be in this free-agent market.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]47[/td][td]Bill Hall[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Infielder/Outfielder
'10 team: Boston Red Sox[/td][/tr][/table]
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM120
- HR18
- RBI46
- R44
- OBP.316
- AVG.247
Now that Hall is free of that ludicrous contract, he can get back to the business of being a competent utility player who can handle six positions and won't kill you at any of them; he's actually above-average at third and second, and if he had to play short for someone for two months, his bat would make up for any loss of range there. Despite a reverse platoon split in 2010, he's also a solid right-handed bat off the bench.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]48[/td][td]Nick Johnson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Designated hitter
'10 team: New York Yankees[/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM24
- HR2
- RBI8
- R12
- OBP.388
- AVG.167
[Insert standard "if healthy" disclaimer, with joke about relative unlikeliness of said state of being]
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]49[/td][td]John Buck[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Catcher
'10 team: Toronto Blue Jays[/td][/tr][/table]
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM118
- HR20
- RBI66
- R53
- OBP.314
- AVG.281
It's possible that Buck just found himself once he got out of Kansas City and had the chance to play nearly every day, or it's possible that a dead fastball hitter changed his approach to try to boost his home run total in his walk year, with a little help from Toronto's homer-friendly ballpark and a fortunate schedule.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]50[/td][td]Javier Vazquez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Starting pitcher
'10 team: New York Yankees [/td][/tr][/table]
New York Yankees[/h5]
2010 STATS
- GM31
- W10
- L10
- BB65
- K121
- ERA5.32
He was pretty good in 2009, as you might have heard around these parts, but his disastrous return to New York was accompanied by a significant loss of velocity that could signal a hidden injury. He's on this list because he's been very good in the past, and perhaps an offseason of rest will see his fastball tick back up; of course, to be safe, he should probably go back to the easier league, too.
[/h3][h3]Takahashi on Halos radar?[/h3]
2:22PM ET
[h5]Hisanori Takahashi | Mets [/h5]
Since the deadline passed and no agreement was made between Takahashi and the New York Mets, the left-hander hit the open market this past weekend, and the Los Angeles Angels maybe interested, according to Patrick Newman.
The Mets will likely be searching for left-handed relief help, and could consider Scott Downs. The Mets finished with one of the worst 15 records in baseball in 2010, so they would not have to surrender a first-round pick to sign the Type-A free agent.
The Angels, who traded southpaw Brian Fuentes to the Minnesota Twins last summer, could also consider Pedro Feliciano, Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Beimel or J.C. Romero, among others.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Braves unloading Lowe?[/h3]
1:38PM ET
[h5]Derek Lowe | Braves [/h5]
The Atlanta Braves are reportedly on the lookout for outfield help and perhaps an infielder to handle third base, but they don't have unlimited funds, which could lead to GM Frank Wren to attempt to deal veteran right-hander Derek Lowe to clear some payroll.
The problem is, Lowe is 38 years old and is guaranteed $30 million over the next two seasons. Clubs aren't taking on contracts the way they were several years ago, which could hinder the process.
ESPN Insider's Keith Law wrote Monday, however, that trading Lowe isn't impossible, it will just take the right match.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Lowe has value
[/h3][h3]Takahashi on Halos radar?[/h3]
2:22PM ET
[h5]Hisanori Takahashi | Mets [/h5]
Since the deadline passed and no agreement was made between Takahashi and the New York Mets, the left-hander hit the open market this past weekend, and the Los Angeles Angels maybe interested, according to Patrick Newman.
The Mets will likely be searching for left-handed relief help, and could consider Scott Downs. The Mets finished with one of the worst 15 records in baseball in 2010, so they would not have to surrender a first-round pick to sign the Type-A free agent.
The Angels, who traded southpaw Brian Fuentes to the Minnesota Twins last summer, could also consider Pedro Feliciano, Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Beimel or J.C. Romero, among others.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Braves unloading Lowe?[/h3]
1:38PM ET
[h5]Derek Lowe | Braves [/h5]
The Atlanta Braves are reportedly on the lookout for outfield help and perhaps an infielder to handle third base, but they don't have unlimited funds, which could lead to GM Frank Wren to attempt to deal veteran right-hander Derek Lowe to clear some payroll.
The problem is, Lowe is 38 years old and is guaranteed $30 million over the next two seasons. Clubs aren't taking on contracts the way they were several years ago, which could hinder the process.
ESPN Insider's Keith Law wrote Monday, however, that trading Lowe isn't impossible, it will just take the right match.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Lowe has value
