solarius49
Banned
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- Jul 13, 2004
Hollinger:
Not going according to plan
At worst, this was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. The Warriors seemed to have shooters galore with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and rookie Harrison Barnes. They had a versatile, mobile big man in David Lee and a post-up threat in Andrew Bogut. Maybe they weren't going to be Run TMC, but this figured to be one of the league's top 10 offenses, especially with the starting five on the court.
Right now they're 25th. And even that mark owes mostly to the brilliant play of reserve Carl Landry rather than anything the starters have done. Golden State's starting lineup has a collective offensive efficiency rating of 96.2, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool. Bogut hasn't played much, but if we just look at the Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee quartet, it's even worse: a pathetic 93.7.
Individually, all five Golden State starters have underperformed. Bogut has played only 72 minutes. He's injured again, and nobody knows when he's coming back. But at least he has a PER above the league average, which is more than the other four can say.
Barnes has the excuse that he's a rookie. His single-digit PER and general invisibility in the early going shouldn't come as a huge shock.
But the three holdovers? These guys were supposed to be the heart of the offense. Thompson had a strong finish to last season but is shooting in the 30s on 2s, 73.7 percent from the line and doesn't contribute in enough other ways to make up for it. Like Thompson, Curry is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor and has struggled as a distributor. Between the two, they're averaging 7.2 assists and 5.7 turnovers, which won't get it done as a starting backcourt.
Then there's Lee, a phantom of a defender whose offense is the only thing keeping him on the court -- at least in theory. In practice, he is shooting 42.1 percent from the floor and, like his two celebrated teammates, has a TS% in the high 40s.
As a result, Golden State's starting five takes the cake in our list of the league's top early disappointments. The Warriors somehow have survived, going 3-4 thanks to a solid defense and the outsized contributions of Landry and Jarrett Jack. But unless their starters get back to their historic performance levels, this thing will go off the rails quickly.
While the Warriors' quintet leads the way, I have plenty more to choose from. Here's a look around the league at the biggest letdowns from the first two weeks:
Roy Hibbert, Pacers
Say, didn't you used to be an All-Star? Hibbert's vanishing post game has been the biggest disappointment in the wretched, stinking train wreck known as the Indiana offense this season, one that ranks 29th in efficiency after Tuesday's depressing 74-72 home loss to Toronto. (Featuring stalwarts like Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani, the Raptors entered the game ranked 25th in defense.)
The alleged focal point of the attack, Hibbert is averaging 8.4 points on 37.8 percent shooting. Combined with his pathetic total of 11 free throw attempts on the season, his TS% is a brutal 38.6. Most embarrassingly, he is 7-foot-2 and has made fewer than half his shots inside five feet.
Danilo Gallinari, Nuggets
When Gallinari was a rookie with the Knicks, then-coach Mike D'Antoni said he was the best shooter he'd ever seen. While D'Antoni's talent for blowing hot air about his guys is well known, Gallo shot 44.4 percent on 3s that year. However, his percentage has gone down every year, dropping to last season's 32.8 percent.
This season? Gallinari appears to have renewed his efforts to become a needed floor-spacer for the Nuggets, trying more than seven triples a game. One problem: They aren't going in. He has made only 11 of his 50 attempts, muddling along at 22 percent and contributing to Denver's shocking offensive malaise. Not that he has been much better inside the arc, at 39.3 percent on 2s, and like all the Nuggets, he has seen his formerly high rate of free throw attempts shrivel.
Kevin Durant, Thunder
The absence of James Harden appears to have hurt Durant more than anyone, forcing him into a playmaking role that he doesn't seem completely comfortable with. Durant has boosted his assist rates and sharply increased his rebounding, but he is averaging more than five fewer points per 40 minutes and dragged his PER down five points along the way.
That jives with his numbers from a year ago. According to NBA.com, he played roughly half his minutes with Harden and half without. In the without portion, he averaged 3.4 points per 40 minutes fewer but 0.6 assists more. Now that his entire season is "without", he is taking on that performance permanently. That's terrible news, because Durant's one-of-a-kind skill is scoring, not making skip passes for Thabo Sefolosha jumpers.
As Zach Lowe keeps pointing out, changing OKC's painfully bad starting lineup to add more scoring is one potential cure. Adding Eric Maynor to the starting group and playing small with Westbrook at the 2 could relieve some of Durant's playmaking burden and make it easier for his scoring game to shine.
New Orleans point guards
Greivis Vasquez is in the league leaders in assists and made a game-winning shot to beat Utah. But that's about the only shot he's made. While Passquez has impressed with his court vision, he is 3-for-15 on 3s and an unfathomable 16-for-47 on 2s. That's left his TS% at 36.7 percent and kept his PER in single digits despite the gaudy passing stats. Throw in his suspect ability to defend the position and he's on some thin ice.
Fortunately for Vasquez, his competition for the job is Austin Rivers, who has probably been the league's worst rookie in the early going. (Well, of those who have played anyway. Royce White has this title on lockdown until further notice.). Rivers' line thus far? Ten fouls, nine turnovers, seven made baskets. It's not for lack of trying either, with 32 hoists in just four games.
Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks
Ilyasova's 2011-12 season seemed fluky, but nobody suspected a crash like this. He had a 20.55 PER a year ago; now it's at 4.36, an accomplishment which would blow away Lamar Odom's record for one-year decline if he keeps it up. It's not as if it's just one category that's hurting him. His performance is down across the board, with both his spot-up and off-the-dribble games suffering staggering declines. On a positive note, he is doing wonders for Ekpe Udoh's adjusted plus-minus.
The timing couldn't be worse, as the Bucks just signed him to a five-year, $40 million deal in the offseason. Just when Milwaukee finally seemed to be in a position where all the bad contracts were off its books, one wonders if Ilyasova is starting the cycle anew.
Manu Ginobili, Spurs
Ginobili has battled a bad back in the early part of the season, and perhaps he shouldn't have played Tuesday night. The Spurs better hope it's just the back. Ginobili is 35 and appeared to slow down in the playoffs last season. This season, he is shooting 34.9 percent with a single-digit PER.
The passing flair is still there, but his turnovers per possession are dramatically up and he hasn't been converting consistently even inside the arc. While his 3-for-19 start on 3s offers hope in a roundabout way -- certainly he'll end up in the mid- to high-30s -- the rest of his game has been slow to come around, which is bad news for a team that probably needs Ginobili playing at an All-Star level to be in a realistic position as a title contender.
Josh Smith, Hawks
Josh Smith, jump shooter, has taken seven 3-pointers and made one of them. Josh Smith, jump shooter, has tried 29 2s from beyond 10 feet and converted six of them. Josh Smith, jump shooter, has taken 15 free throws and made three of them. Josh Smith, jump shooter, is killing the Hawks' offense.
What's so maddening is that Josh Smith, basketball player, is otherwise extremely valuable. He sees the court, rebounds, defends, can finish at the rim and has a nice right-block post game. When not shooting jumpers, he's at 53.8 percent this season. Add in the jumpers and he's at 39.8 percent with a career-low PER. I'll ask one more time, very nicely: Ditch the jumpers, Josh.
Tyreke Evans, Kings
In his fourth year in the NBA, Evans continues to go backward. With a wayward Kings organization that hasn't exactly wowed us with its player development program, it appears Evans has no more coherent idea of how to play offense than when he came into the league four years ago -- especially when he doesn't have the ball.
While Evans seems more engaged defensively than in previous seasons, his 38 percent shooting and 13.7 points per 40 minutes in the early going are a crushing disappointment for a Kings team that is desperate for some reliable scoring punch. Not only is his TS% a ghastly 43.9, but he is doing it with a career-low usage rate.
Like half these guys are on my fantasy team
:x
. Thanks Chester Both guys numbers are down so far, but Blake is still playing better basketball.
