OFFICIAL NFL OFFSZN THREAD 2023-24: Bill WILDIN

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diggs ain’t going nowhere…vikings fans just got ptsd…

it’s simply a case of rusty wheel getting the grease…the dude wants the ball more , like every star WR ever…
 
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va757va said:
care to post the whole article 651akathepaul 651akathepaul for those of us with an athletic subscription??
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The Vikings and Giants both exceeded expectations in 2022. Led by first-time general managers and head coaches, both teams realized their best-case outcomes. The Vikings went 13-4 to win the NFC North, while the Giants went 9-7-1 to secure an NFC wild-card spot.

The teams’ successes were largely attributable to an uncanny ability to win close games — the Vikings set an NFL record by going 11-0 in one-score games, and the Giants were 8-4-1 in one-score games. Despite their win totals, both teams had negative point differentials. Those factors have led to a perception that both teams are due for a regression this season.

Fittingly, these teams met in an NFC postseason matchup in January, with the Giants earning a 31-24 upset win in Minnesota. Will these teams return to the playoffs this season and beyond? Here’s a closer look at their trajectories:

Quarterback​

Giants​

A lot can change in a year. The biggest decision general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll made in their first offseason was declining Daniel Jones’ $22.4 million fifth-year option for the 2023 season. That left Jones facing the ultimate prove-it season.

He proved it.

Jones showed the new regime enough while leading the Giants to nine wins and their first playoff victory since Super Bowl 46 to earn a four-year, $160 million extension this offseason. There’s a level of projection involved in that commitment because Jones threw just 15 touchdown passes last season, but the organization believes an enhanced supporting cast and another year in Daboll’s system will vault the 26-year-old into a higher tier.

There’s an escape hatch built into Jones’ contract that will allow the team to move on after the 2024 season if he doesn’t make the expected leap. But that’s a fallback plan. The Giants are all in on building on last season’s success, and they believe Jones is capable of taking the team back to Super Bowl contention.




Vikings​

The Vikings know what they have in 2023. Kirk Cousins, who has started at least 15 games in each season since the team signed him in 2018, will be the signal caller. Both he and the team are optimistic because, for the first time since his Washington days, he will be working with the same play caller and offensive system for a second consecutive season.

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Those factors could lead to a career year for the 35-year-old, which would only exacerbate the team’s uncertain future at the position. Unless the Vikings and Cousins agree to an extension, Cousins’ contract is set to void at the end of the 2023 season. If that happens, the Vikings will not only incur a hefty dead-cap charge, but they’ll also be without an obvious successor. Minnesota drafted Jaren Hall in the fifth round of this year’s draft, but he is a developmental option.

Furthermore, if Cousins performs well this fall and the team reaches the playoffs, a late first-round pick might complicate a potential trade-up to get a quarterback for the future. This is unequivocally the biggest question regarding the franchise’s direction. Will the Vikings keep Cousins around on a cap hit that constrains what’s possible for the rest of the roster? Or will they attempt to add a highly touted prospect on a rookie deal and work to enhance the roster around him?

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Non-QB talent​

Giants​

For as bad as former general manager Dave Gettleman’s four-year tenure was, he didn’t leave the cupboard bare for Schoen. In addition to Jones, Schoen has made eight (or nine) figure commitments to left tackle Andrew Thomas, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, running Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Darius Slayton.

Combine that group with other Gettleman holdovers — defensive tackle Leonard Williams, outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari, cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and safety Xavier McKinney — and Schoen inherited some foundational pieces at premium positions.

The gaps will need to be filled in by Schoen’s draft picks and free-agent signings, and the jury is still out on those additions. If his top draft picks — outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux, right tackle Evan Neal and cornerback Deonte Banks — and big-money veteran acquisitions — tight end Darren Waller and linebacker Bobby Okereke — hit, the Giants will have a core built to contend immediately and into the future.




Vikings​

Offensively, the Vikings have some serious cornerstone players. We’ll start with Justin Jefferson, who at age 24 has accomplished more through three seasons than any other wide receiver in NFL history. He is eligible for an extension, and though no deal has been reached yet, both sides remain confident that a deal will happen.

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In some ways, Jefferson’s superstardom has clouded the rise of left tackle Christian Darrisaw. The 2021 first-round pick began to establish himself last season as one of the premier tackles in the NFL. Among the 56 tackles who played at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps in 2022, Darrisaw ranked eighth in overall grade, per Pro Football Focus. He will be a prime candidate for an extension next offseason.

The Vikings have other bona fide weapons, too. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is one of them, and though the team wants to extend him, they have yet to agree on a deal. And rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison appears primed for immediate success.

Defensively, the story is wholeheartedly different. Impact players like Danielle Hunter and Byron Murphy Jr. are not under long-term contracts. And while that could always change, the gap in reliable depth between each unit is considerable.

Regardless, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seems committed to allocating resources to the most premium positions on both sides of the ball: tackles, edge rushers, wide receivers, etc. Thinking ahead, it makes sense to put the focus there.




Key decision makers​

Giants​

Daboll was named Coach of the Year in his first season in New York, so it’s hard not to be encouraged about the direction of the team under his leadership. Daboll waited a long time to get a head-coaching job, and he seized the opportunity, masterfully blending his X’s and O’s expertise with a player-friendly style that won over the locker room. The schematic acumen of Daboll and his coordinators gives the Giants a chance in every game and raises the floor for the team’s prospects.

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It’s too early to evaluate Schoen, since his first year was mostly spent cleaning up the mess left behind by Gettleman. The front office showed a keen eye for low-budget signings last year, but Schoen’s first draft class was ravaged by injuries. Armed with cap space, Schoen was more aggressive this offseason. If nothing else, Schoen has undoubtedly moved the Giants’ operation into the 21st century. His actions and processes are in line with the modern NFL after his predecessors lagged behind the times.

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Despite overseeing a brutal decade after Super Bowl 46, the Giants’ ownership team remains highly regarded around the league. The Mara and Tisch families have proven they can provide the infrastructure for championship teams. The challenge has been finding the right people to run the football operations. After a few big swings and misses, the early returns are promising on Daboll and Schoen.

Vikings​

Prior to the 2022 season, the Vikings decided to reshape their culture. That process started with the hiring of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell. Adofo-Mensah is a former commodities trader on Wall Street who rose through the NFL ranks as a byproduct of his analytical expertise. O’Connell, meanwhile, is a former quarterback whose time around Bill Belichick, Sean McVay and others shaped a distinct perspective on how to develop systems and interact with players.

Nobody could have foreseen a 13-4 start to their Vikings tenure, but the early success established a standard. Challenges exist, however, beginning with the team’s uncertain future at quarterback. The 2022 draft, which was Adofo-Mensah’s first with the franchise, has yet to bear fruit. And yet, with the team working to clear its cap constraints for 2024, 2025 and beyond, it feels too soon to make any brash assessments at the moment.

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Resources/paths to improve​

Giants​

Schoen’s fiscal restraint last offseason helped the Giants quickly get out of the salary-cap hell he inherited. Despite a spending spree this offseason, the Giants are still projected to have the 11th-most salary-cap space in the league in 2024. With many of the team’s top players signed long-term or still on rookie contracts, Schoen will have the flexibility to be aggressive in free agency next offseason.

The Giants don’t have a surplus of draft picks in the future — they’re slated to have their own pick in each of the seven rounds in the 2024 draft. But after making 11 picks in 2022 and having 11 picks this year before making trades, there’s less impetus to load up on draft picks for next year.

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Schoen can count on a commitment to winning from the Giants’ ownership. The franchise always spends close to the salary cap, and no expense has been spared to support football operations for this regime, whether that’s expanding the analytics department or building a state-of-the-art draft room.

Vikings​

We’ll start with ownership. The Vikings ranked No. 1 in the NFL Players Association survey, which is a nod to the commitment from team owners Zygi, Mark and Leonard Wilf. Not only has the team proven it is willing to spend on players — i.e. Cousins’ three-year, $84 million guaranteed deal — but it has also shown a willingness to improve the facilities and player development resources.

All of that is important, but so is cap health, and for years, the Vikings have been cap constrained. One of Adofo-Mensah’s missions has been to change that while continuing to compete, which is why he offloaded veterans like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Eric Kendricks this offseason. Though Over the Cap projects the Vikings to be in the top half of the league in cap space for 2024, that does not factor in the potential hefty dead-cap hits of players like Cousins and Hunter. That said, the team’s books are mostly clear for 2025. Pair its spending flexibility with a potential rookie quarterback contract and you have a fascinating team-building situation.




Other considerations​

Giants​

Despite all of the good vibes from the Giants’ turnaround last season, a harsh reality exists: They went 1-5-1 against the NFC East, including a 38-7 drubbing by the Eagles in the divisional round of the playoffs. For all of their improvements this offseason, the Giants are still widely viewed as the third-best team in their division behind the Eagles and Cowboys. That’s a roadblock to immediate success, but the NFC East has proven to be volatile, with no repeat division winners since 2004.

The more significant concern for the Giants, as they attempt to build on last year’s success, is their recent track record. Ben McAdoo went 11-5 in his first season as head coach in 2016, but he was fired 12 games into the 2017 season. There was widespread belief that Joe Judge was the answer after going 5-3 to close his first season as head coach in 2020, but he was fired after the 2021 season.

There’s nothing to suggest Daboll will be a one-hit wonder, but no one foresaw the swift demises of McAdoo and Judge, either. The Giants seemingly hit the accelerator on their rebuild this offseason, spending aggressively and taking risks on players with injury histories. They need to be careful to avoid skipping any steps in the process and repeating the crash-and-burns of past regimes.

Vikings​

Part of the reason Minnesota has taken a “competitive rebuild” approach these last two seasons is their division. The Lions appear to be ascending, but the Packers and Bears remain question marks, especially at quarterback. The Vikings won the NFC North last season, going 4-2 in the division, and this season feels similarly up for grabs.

In the short term, the Vikings’ chances at contending depend mostly on the defense. Newly hired defensive coordinator Brian Flores faces a tall task in transforming a unit that ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric last season. The team brought in Murphy and Marcus Davenport but lost Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson.

Repeating their 2022 success this fall is going to be a tall task for the Vikings. And even they would admit that their ceiling — in the long term, especially — is dependent on their draft-and-development process, which Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell are sure to emphasize.



— Click here to see the poll results —

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(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos of Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)

The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.
 
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