- 18,385
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pence obviously subscries to the big lie approach. pos
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Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.
But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.
In this day & age, you need the LGBT vote, the immigrant vote, the minority vote, & the youth vote.
In its founding statement, The Atlantic promised that it would be “the organ of no party or clique,” and our interest here is not to advance the prospects of the Democratic Party, nor to damage those of the Republican Party. If Hillary Clinton were facing Mitt Romney, or John McCain, or George W. Bush, or, for that matter, any of the leading candidates Trump vanquished in the Republican primaries, we would not have contemplated making this endorsement. We believe in American democracy, in which individuals from various parties of different ideological stripes can advance their ideas and compete for the affection of voters. But Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office, and voters—the statesmen and thinkers of the ballot box—should act in defense of American democracy and elect his opponent.
Keep in mind, Nate Silver has been near perfect in his voting forecasts. He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states during the 2012 presidential election and 49 out of 50 states in 2008.
If this indeed bares out, Hilary will have a democratic senate to work with in her first term. I think she will be able to accomplish enough to make a second term all but certain.
Still blows my mind how Nate Silver essentially predicts the future. Almost flawlessly too
I was listening to one of the guys who works for 538 on the keeping it 1600 podcast the other day. The dude said that if most of the polls show a 1-2% margin for clinton on election day, pretty much anything can happen and he wouldn't be shocked one way or the other. However, he said that if she has something like a 5+ percentage margin on the polls, it would be very surprising to him for her to lose.
We believe in American democracy, in which individuals from various parties of different ideological stripes can advance their ideas and compete for the affection of voters. But Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office, and voters—the statesmen and thinkers of the ballot box—should act in defense of American democracy and elect his opponent.
Crazy how far we have not come.You should check out the The LBJ/Goldwater endorsement. The is interesting/disgusting how much the Goldwater situation sounds like the position we are today. LINK
- 31 of the 50 governors are republican.
- 247 of the 448 seats in the house are republican.
- 54 seats of the 100 seats in the senate are republican.
- State houses controlled by a Republican majority: 33 (State houses controlled by a Democratic majority: 16) *As of 10/1/16.
- 4 out of the 8 justices on the Supreme Court are republican.
And the republicans & their nominee are complaining about the direction of this country... Real talk...