***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[frenchbreadbuilds]

I mean this is what people are saying as of last week. Knock off 1-2 swing states with a dem gov VP and you have a good shot with Harris. You have a good shot with any of them. Is 28% chance of winning the odds you want to roll with the next 125 days? I sure don’t. Running a for sure loser is worthless.

I would think that any strategy that involves keeping Biden on board would be with an end goal of increasing poll numbers as we move closer to November. But whoever remains in the race, whether it’s Biden or otherwise, still has a ton of campaigning left to do.

 

[trappedintime]

I would think that any strategy that involves keeping Biden on board would be with an end goal of increasing poll numbers as we move closer to November. But whoever remains in the race, whether it’s Biden or otherwise, still has a ton of campaigning left to do.

Isn’t that the problem? Guy has to be out there in swing states day after day and he’s self-imposed an 8pm curfew. As Nate Silver described the “broken leg problem” there’s little to no chance of Biden’s performance improving.

 

[atlsfinest]

I also want to push back on the "Republicans have better party unity than Democrats" narrative. There is a huge rift within the Republican party between the populist, MAGA wing of the party and more centrist, Romneycrats. You guys seem to forget that The Trump Wing of the party ousted a sitting speaker of the house for the first time ever.

 

[atlsfinest]

I also think that Democrats need to own some of their shortcomings during the Biden presidency. Inflation is high (there isn't much Joe can do about this but the president gets blamed regardless) and the border policy has been ineffective.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Couple points, because this thread is still a **** show today:

-I think Biden should step aside and let Harris be the nominee

-I don't think running Harris is a magic bullet.

Dems have a ton of issues hurting them beyond Biden's age

Inflation/cost of living is still the main issue on people's minds

I don't think Harris solves the growing apathy with black voters towards the Democratic Party

I don't see her making that big of a difference with Latino voters moving to the GOP

Biden's few strengths in polling with seniors and white people probably goes away with Harris

And one of the keys to victories in 2020 was winning over more white male independent/swing voters that most expected. I think Harris does worse with this demographic compared to 2020 Biden.

Then we is gonna lose some swing voters just because of pure racism and sexism

So see has a hard fight ahead of her. She has shown some **** political instincts. I wish we had a primary. But she is the VP, and healthy enough to put up a good fight.

I have serious concerns if she become the nominee.

-It is a massive risk either way, with Biden or Harris, but I believe running Biden is a bigger risk

-There are a lot of unserious people and weirdos that hate the Dems and Biden that are using this situation as a vehicle to vent their general grievances with the party. I see it in leftist media, I see it in the mainstream media, I see it on social media, and now I see it in this thread. Using hyperbole and feeling an unearned sense of vindication.

But even ignoring all these people, all things considered, if Biden can't campaign like he should to increase his prospects of winning, then that makes me switch to the "he should step down" camp.

Joe has been a good president on aggregate. Let that be his final legacy. Not fumbling the bag because of stubbornness.

 

[dacomeup]

My counter to that is with 5 months out it’s far more likely Biden can get his **** together and beat Trump again than the democrats can put somebody else in his position who can even get their campaign off the ground to have a legit chance against trump.

Based on what?

What's the upside of the democratic party using another candidate?

Pivoting to a candidate that 80% of the country doesn’t think is too old to be President and is polling at all time low numbers seems like significant upside to me.

 

[gry60]

Do voters think being president is a one man job that Biden cant do so theyre gonna vote for Trump because he's slightly more coherent even though 99% of what he says is nonsense and lies? Miss me with that, it shouldnt matter what Biden sounds like and if he makes a gaff here and there, because he is effing old. Not like he's gonna wake up in the middle of the night and push the red button to launch nukes and poof theyre launched. Theres a line of approval for everything a president wants to do

You know, your description of the president's role within an administration is accurate.

However, the general public has never internalized it because of the way we usually talk about politics and/or the way campaigns are run. The popular perception of the president has always been that they are making every decision during their term; in reality, their success largely hinges on the people they surround themselves with. We cannot assume that the public will change their perception of the candidate from "the individual with all the answers" to the "coach of the team."

I don’t doubt for a second that she’s ready to step up and step in. I’m more so looking at voter behavior. What “spooks” voters into voting one way or the other, what will lead to voter enthusiasm vs voter apathy. What happens to the perceived advantage and stability that comes with incumbency if Harris’s platform is more differs from Biden. There’s a lot of factors to considering the Democratic voting base is so diverse and have different motivations.

That's a real concern that folks don't want to address. The reality is that replacing Joe comes with its own set of challenges, and looking disorganized if the transition isn't happening properly carries the risk of making Democrats unappealing to voters who care about image in the long term. A replacement candidate isn't necessarily a silver bullet.

 

[IATT]

 

[RustyShackleford]

 

[dacomeup]

The idea that Rs are a unified front in public is probably one of the worst takes I’ve ever seen in this thread and so easy to disprove

 

[gry60]

The idea that Rs are a unified front in public is probably one of the worst takes I’ve ever seen in this thread and so easy to disprove

I think you guys misunderstand:



During election time, they fall in line, all the time.
Anyone who has asked Trump to not run is a pariah in the GOP: they get primaried or they leave office because they'll get primaried. The only exception I can think of is Utah.

 

[IATT]

 

[dacomeup]

I think you guys misunderstand:



During election time, they fall in line, all the time.
Anyone who has asked Trump to not run is a pariah in the GOP: they get primaried or they leave office because they'll get primaried. The only exception I can think of is Utah.

And Democrats do the same thing. It’s nothing unique. What we’re seeing right now is unprecedented and it’s because of fears of what the American people have been worried about, which is the President’s age and mental fitness. He’s doing nothing to quell those worries.

 

[mplsdunk]

I don’t even know if Biden will win mn. He pissed a bunch of people off here.

 

[frenchbreadbuilds]

That's a real concern that folks don't want to address. The reality is that replacing Joe comes with its own set of challenges, and looking disorganized if the transition isn't happening properly carries the risk of making Democrats unappealing to voters who care about image in the long term. A replacement candidate isn't necessarily a silver bullet.

If there’s one thing that I have learned following politics in the Trump era is that I no longer assume that the lens people view politics through maps on to reality 100%. And this is accross the board. You republicans that swear we are in the worst economy since 2008 while they purchase $100k trucks because eggs are more expensive, you have leftist that believe that the Supreme Court ruling now gives Biden the powers he needs to make radical progressive change like stacking the Supreme Court but he’s choosing not too. You have folks on both sides that don’t even know that Trump actively hatched a scheme to subvert the vote.

Optics means a lot, and making the “obvious” choice today can lead to not so obvious consequences tomorrow. And while I think there’s an obvious reason for Biden to step down, Dems as a whole have been so terrible with messaging these past 4 years, I don’t know if they actually have the minds in play to PR and message their way through an unprecedented change up like this.

 

[trappedintime]

And Democrats do the same thing. It’s nothing unique. What we’re seeing right now is unprecedented and it’s because of fears of what the American people have been worried about, which is the President’s age and mental fitness. He’s doing nothing to quell those worries.

They don’t do the same thing. I’d be willing to put $1000 on the line that Biden gets less votes than in 2020 if he stays in the race.

Trump can talk about sharks and electrocution by boat battery and they’ll still line up to stamp another 4 years of judicial appointments and tax cuts for the rich. Many democrats simply won’t show up for Biden.

The “principles” of Democrats is a big part of the problem. Same reason Obama didn’t force RBG to retire, why they let Merrick Garland get sidelined, why they forced a loser candidate like Hillary on us to give up two more SC seats. And likely the same reason they’ll lose in November running a senile old man.

 

[sneaksoy]

Lol who should Dems have run instead of Hillary?


And if you think Hillary is such a loser candidate, why would you want to replace Biden with Kamala?!

I don’t dismiss all of your arguments but then you throw stuff in there like that and it’s hard not to suspect everything else you say.

 

[RustyShackleford]

They don’t do the same thing. I’d be willing to put $1000 on the line that Biden gets less votes than in 2020 if he stays in the race.

Trump can talk about sharks and electrocution by boat battery and they’ll still line up to stamp another 4 years of judicial appointments and tax cuts for the rich. Many democrats simply won’t show up for Biden.

The “principles” of Democrats is a big part of the problem. Same reason Obama didn’t force RBG to retire, why they let Merrick Garland get sidelined, why they forced a loser candidate like Hillary on us to give up two more SC seats. And likely the same reason they’ll lose in November running a senile old man.

You are not a serious person

 

[RustyShackleford]

Obama couldn't force RGB to do anything

The GOP controlled the Senate when Obama wanted to appoint Garland

Hillary Clinton won a primary by a blowout.

2020 was historically high turnout, so chances are there will be less people voting this time around anyway

This situation should not be a vehicle for silly political takes.

Good ******* grief

 

[trappedintime]

Lol who should Dems have run instead of Hillary?


And if you think Hillary is such a loser candidate, why would you want to replace Biden with Kamala?!

I don’t dismiss all of your arguments but then you throw stuff in there like that and it’s hard not to suspect everything else you say.

She was a historically unlikeable candidate who could barely stand in September 2016. She ran one of the worst campaigns sitting at home the last month of the election believing she had it wrapped up against one of the biggest losers in the history of this country.

The common thread between her and Biden is ignoring the polling where it matters and a sense of entitlement to the job. All Biden could do last night was call Trump a liar.

I don’t like Kamala but she’s not Hillary Clinton. She’s young and energetic and way more progressive than some center-left neolib. And that’s what the electorate wants right now.

She’s not a lock by any means but she’s now pulled ahead of Biden in betting markets and she polls better than Biden in every battleground state. She also would appeal more to the suburban soccer mom than either Biden or Trump.

I can’t understand why anyone would think the chances go down when Biden has a 1:4 shot of winning right now. That’s not gonna suddenly increase to 50/50 odds in the next 3 months with a second debate 10 days before early voting opens up. It only gets worse for him from here.

 

[mplsdunk]

Just run Kamala and call it good. She hasn’t lost an election to trump. Hillary has and would again.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Hillary Clinton was the most popular politician in America before the primary started. She left the Obama Administration early to build her campaign framework and startly consolidated a ton of support in the deep south. Something that cost her in 2008. That is why people were scared to challenge.

Biden was probably the only person that should a chance in 2008, but he was still broken up about his son. Which is understandable.

It was the media horse race coverage, high polarization,and Bernie refusing to drop out when and validating attack on her that sunk approval rating

She fainted once.

And performed well in debates.

After the Comney letter, Trump got a large majority of late deciders.

The same Nate Silver has written about this.

If Dem turn is little bit better. The Dems probably take the White House and Senate.

Poor Dem turnout was also catastrophic in 2014.

Religiating 2016 again using the lazy far left fan fiction is not a serious way to engage with a serious topic.

She lost a close election for many reasons. No need to make up reasons to prop up your argument.

No one is seriously talking about running Clinton again. I don't see the point of bringing her up.

 

[IATT]

I hope all of you are fully aware the shh show won’t stop with biden, if he does step aside

Just think of the shh show they created over Clinton in the 90s.. just think of the whole swift boat mess.. they ended howard dean over a funny scream and Dukakis over a bad photo.. Hillary over lunch emails and tried with all those Benghazi hearings.. then look at Obama, these dudes lost their minds over a tan suit and then them talking about Michelle’s arms and starting rumors about her really being a man

They already purposely mispronounce Kamala’s name, as they did with Obama or purposely saying his middle name.. they also routinely call Kamala not qualified and it never gets checked given her record from a multitude of angles

 

[RustyShackleford]

Got the feeling trappedintime is a disgruntled far left dude that is using this to vent about his general anger with the Dems.

Like osh kosh bosh , I hate I am on the same side of the Biden dropping out argument as do many unserious people

But it is what it is.

 

[mplsdunk]

The man said he defeated Medicare in front of the world then zombied out.

It’s time to step aside, this shouldn’t be a controversial opinion.

This isn’t a stutter, the dude is a different person than he was 4 years ago.