***Official Political Discussion Thread***

It’s starting to feel like this Thread is believing that Kamala will win.
That’s a different energy for sure.
What if I told you a Trump win was never realistic? IMO its just been the media saying "its close or Trump is up" to get clicks and views and spark debates.
Because they have nothing if they say Kamala's up 5-10% everywhere. Im the one who said in this thread that Im confident that even if Biden stayed on the ballot he would beat Trump.
Im even more confident when Kamala took over. Voters arent that stupid to want a second Trump term after seeing his disastrous first term. The ones voting for him are just bigots and misogynists that would vote for anyone but a woman
 
I very much doubt Biden would win if he stayed on the ballot. It was clear his mind's starting to fade and the internal polling must've been real bad for him to step down.
Also I wouldn't exactly put much stock in this part.
Voters arent that stupid to want a second Trump term after seeing his disastrous first term.
 
I very much doubt Biden would win if he stayed on the ballot. It was clear his mind's starting to fade and the internal polling must've been real bad for him to step down.
Also I wouldn't exactly put much stock in this part.
A lot of people have learned what a pos he is. He doesnt have the element of suprise anymore like he did in 2016 when he was a wild card and people thought "he's rich and not a politician surely he's the one that can set things straight" :lol: Thats why he lost in 2020
 
A lot of people have learned what a pos he is.
True, BUT!

A lot of folks are willing to bring the stupidity/racism/demagoguery he brings in exchange for perceived economic benefits. This is why the only argument that can make those folks second guess their decision to vote for him is to highlight the negative economic consequences of his past (and proposed) policies:

talk about what the repeal of the CHIPS Act would do for American independence in a world that relies on microelectronic chips;
talk about the soybean farmer debacle that resulted from his tarrifs;
talk about the PPP loan wealth transfer from bottom to top;
talk about the increased CoL that would result from his proposed tarrifs;
talk about how replacing income taxes with VAT and would increase everyday spending for the average American.

He has so many insane ideas that are only designed to benefit the top 0.1%. They are the only section of American society that would benefit from the economic decline that his policies would bring about because they have the means to shield themselves from government dysfunction.
 
A lot of people have learned what a pos he is. He doesnt have the element of suprise anymore like he did in 2016 when he was a wild card and people thought "he's rich and not a politician surely he's the one that can set things straight" :lol: Thats why he lost in 2020


Sadly, people should have known in 2016

Ain’t like it ain’t been know since forever how racist him and his ole man were and continue to be

Even though more than half a century of evidence ain’t enough for dwalk31 dwalk31 to actually admit it
 
Sadly, people should have known in 2016

Ain’t like it ain’t been know since forever how racist him and his ole man were and continue to be

Even though more than half a century of evidence ain’t enough for dwalk31 dwalk31 to actually admit it
He supported a Known Pervert and Pedo in Roy Moore.
 
A.What if I told you a Trump win was never realistic? B.Voters arent that stupid to want a second Trump term after seeing his disastrous first term.
A. I’d say you were onto something.
B. No, voters can be pretty stupid.
The ones voting for him are just bigots and misogynists that would vote for anyone but a woman
I doubt you really mean this.
I don’t know you but I highly doubt you truly truly believe this. Maybe you do.
 


On a somewhat related note, and with 40 hours left until some polls open on the East Coast, osh kosh bosh osh kosh bosh :

A) Harris/Walz wins
B) Trump/Vance wins
C) Don't know

A, B or C?

I know you say you don't live in the U.S., but you participate in these discussions and post a lot about moves that are made.

For me, I've voted in a bunch of presidential elections, and I'm going with 'C'. Taking everything I've seen, my personal interactions with people, news coverage, polls, prognosticators like the 13 keys guy, recent election history, American history, the Genocide in Gaza, and the current status of the US society, economy, post-covid reality, and getting input from folks I respect who have their own feelings about things, I don't know. I don't think any one, or two, or even 3 things can be pointed to as being the thing that will decide it. There are too many variables from how things play out at the polling locations to how things could (possibly) play out in the courts. There's no real way to have an educated guess here. How about you?
 
Wild that's not an Onion headline and they just finally brokedown and said it.
They dropped the masks in 2019.

Loved this take from the Nation:
Now that Donald Trump’s policies are starting to ravage the very core of his base, we’re starting to see the follow-up to these experiments in aggrievement normalization. From The New York Times to CNN, we’re being treated to deep dives on the white people who voted for Trump, found it hasn’t paid off, and are now questioning their choices.

I am here for none of it. If it took missing a check due to the government shutdown for you to realize that voting for a bigoted conman was unwise, I have no sympathy. If your business is being hurt by the tariffs ordered by the know-nothing “Tariff Man” you happily voted for, my deepest wish is that your business fails, thereby creating a market opportunity for a hardworking immigrant your president disparages.


In five years, the only new thing Trump has promised has been to increase the intensity of his policies against the undesirables, be they Democrats, transgender people, non-white immigrants, independent women, etc...

This election is simply about how well distributed are the people who recognize that Don is a hateful conman.
 


On a somewhat related note, and with 40 hours left until some polls open on the East Coast, osh kosh bosh osh kosh bosh :

A) Harris/Walz wins
B) Trump/Vance wins
C) Don't know

A, B or C?

I know you say you don't live in the U.S., but you participate in these discussions and post a lot about moves that are made.

For me, I've voted in a bunch of presidential elections, and I'm going with 'C'. Taking everything I've seen, my personal interactions with people, news coverage, polls, prognosticators like the 13 keys guy, recent election history, American history, the Genocide in Gaza, and the current status of the US society, economy, post-covid reality, and getting input from folks I respect who have their own feelings about things, I don't know. I don't think any one, or two, or even 3 things can be pointed to as being the thing that will decide it. There are too many variables from how things play out at the polling locations to how things could (possibly) play out in the courts. There's no real way to have an educated guess here. How about you?


If you give me option c I'll take option c. As the data says it's 50/50.

If you force me to pick a or b. I take a because.

1. The democrats have the ground game advantage.
2. Women are more reliable voters than men.

But this is a low confidence opinion.
 

This is another poll from outta Iowa that has trump up 10 so these polls are all over the place. Selzer is a great at polling so I'd except trump to win but not by as much as this Emerson* poll. Why everyone got excited about the selzer poll was because outta all their polls from the last like 3 or 4 cycles for all contests [senate, state legislative, president, ect ect] have only been off by 1 to 2 points. The only one was a governors raise and I think they were off by 5. Just for some more context.
 
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