- 6,910
- 16,900
botom line If Trump is within 3 nationally he's got a shot,
hell need a polling error according to the experts but still a sizable shot...
Thing is black people make up sizeable mirites in swing states while many Latino votes are in blue states.
and swing states with latino's got lots of non colege grad whites to offset latino vote like Arizaona, nevada ect.
While most Chicanos are living in blue California and red Texas, they still have fundamentally altered the electoral college map simply by flipping Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. Add to that the Central Americans in Northern Virginia and the fact that Virginia is now a Northeastern State, and we have a fairly small number of Latino Americans creating a very narrow path for any GOP nominee.
The 2004 Bush strategy was based on the assumption that the entire inland West and the entire South (minus Florida) were all easy pickups. From there, the Republicans were able to eke out wins in Ohio and Florida and win the election.
Because Colorado and Virginia are now solid blue States, Trump has to not only win Florida and Ohio, he has to take Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin, aka the States where Republican candidates go to die.
That's coalition politics at its best. Latinos out West; black folks in Detroit and Milwaukee; woke and white NPR donors in Minnesota and Wisconsin all deny Trump electoral college votes and they force Trump to beg Philadelphia residents, many of whom are Muslim, for their votes. I think we can guess how he will be received.
Increasingly, this is no Country for angry, old, white men.