***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[whywesteppin]

I just found this article about how they've changed their models since 2016.

I'll read tonight when I have time.

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020

If you ask Americans whether they trust the polls, many seem unable to let go of what happened in 2016. Polls taken since then have generally found that a major…

fivethirtyeight.com

My takeaway is that there's always a chance that we miss something in the polls. Putting aside blatant voter suppression for now, this year's pandemic changes the calculus behind whether a typical voter will vote (or whether a typical non-voter will vote). It has greatly shifted the voting to early voting and mail-in ballots, which could also make a difference on how the polls relate to reality. I'm guessing models typically assume that all or most of the votes are coming on election day, so they use that time point for their predictions, which differs from what is happening this year were a majority of ballots may be coming in early.

The polls are better than they were in 2016, but the polls in 2016 were not terrible to begin with. It just shows there are limitations to the predictions. Despite an 8% lead in the predicted popular vote (Obama won by less in the 2008 election but got 365 electoral votes for an easy win), 538 still gives Biden a 10% chance of losing.

 

[aepps20]

They think they’re the only people with guns...



wow definitely not her. Nose is a dead giveaway.

She took in too much nature chakra from Pepe da frog. Hopefully she gets the balance right. If she doesn't her nose will change.

 

[solewoman]

no, she was not.

First Lady Melania Trump was imported from Slovenia through the same program that delivered Einstein.

she has extraordinary abilities.

What is the Einstein visa? And how did Melania Trump get one?

In 2001 Melania Knauss scored a coveted visa reserved for people of "extraordinary ability".

www.bbc.com

chain migration: classy if you´re rich, trashy if you´re poor.

Welp

 

[Upptempo]

no, she was not.

First Lady Melania Trump was imported from Slovenia through the same program that delivered Einstein.

she has extraordinary abilities.

What is the Einstein visa? And how did Melania Trump get one?

In 2001 Melania Knauss scored a coveted visa reserved for people of "extraordinary ability".

www.bbc.com

chain migration: classy if you´re rich, trashy if you´re poor.

She got here through the Einstein visa. oh wait, my bad. I meant Epstein VISA.

 

[elpablo21]

 

[Upptempo]

If you vote based off endorsements, you're a scrub.

Imagine being like aye i think I'm gonna vote for Biden.
**breaking news: Lil Wayne endorses Trump**
Oh nah. Nvm. I'm voting for Trump. YOUNG MOOLAHHH BAYYYBEEE

 

[Nike Jordan]

If you vote based off endorsements, you're a scrub.

Imagine being like aye i think I'm gonna vote for Biden.
**breaking news: Lil Wayne endorses Trump**
Oh nah. Nvm. I'm voting for Trump. YOUNG MOOLAHHH BAYYYBEEE

The F stands for Fascist.

 

[Upptempo]

The F stands for Fascist.

50 gonna come out at the next rally like "G-G-G-G-G-G-O-P"

 

[aepps20]

We've waited and worked for 4 years.

 

[Based Jesus]

Any time two people discuss why Biden is a better option

There's so much lost context when discussing the crime bill.

1. It wasn't all bad. Let's just get that out the way. Established the sex offender registry, the Violence Against Women Act (which republicans killed) and a federal ban on assault weapons (which republicans also killed). There's some other stuff too but that's the **** I remember. Where it really went wrong was mandatory minimums, the 3 strikes bs and making a slew of things harsher offenses.

2. It was bipartisan. Whenever republicans bring it up they're acting in extraordinarily bad faith as if they didn't want a harsher bill.

3. It was a popular idea amongst the electorate at the time. Crime in America had been on a steady rise since the 60s and peaked in the 90s. Everyone wanted an answer. The crime bill was that answer. A largely ineffectual answer however. Some people will attribute the fall in crime to the crime bill. Those people are wrong. The crime bill was in almost no way preventative. It was reactionary. The best way to lower crime is to prevent it from happening in the first place. No, not like Minority Report, but by addressing the cause. What's the #1 cause of crime? Poverty. The economic prosperity of the 90s was the main driving force behind lower crime rates. Not the crime bill, not stop & frisk, and not ballooning police budgets. The amount of people in poverty was also on a steady rise since the 60s before plummeting in the 90s. Not so coincidentally, as the middle class expanded during one of the greatest periods of economic growth, crime rates contracted.

All that nuance, but instead we get, "Biden wrote and passed the crime bill all by himself and then he and Hillary celebrated by calling black people predators." and ****** eat that **** up because it's simpler to understand.

 

[IATT]

 

[aepps20]

THIS IS MY MESSAGE TO YOU. IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR RIDING WITH YOU GUYS FOR 4 YEARS. IT IS OUR TIME IT IS OUR MOMENT. WE GOING TO FIGHT TILL WE CAN'T FIGHT NO MORE. WE GOING TO LINE UP FOR THE TITLE OF TAKING BACK OUR COUNTRY. WE ARE LIKE A SLEDGEHAMMER. ANYTHING THAT THE DEPLORABLES PUT IN OUR WAY WE ARE GOING TO DESTROY.

 

[whywesteppin]

We've waited and worked for 4 years.

Just like Lebron won in 2016 and again in 2020, I'm feeling a repeat coming on for DJT.

 

[IATT]

 

[blastercombo]

Better than the knocking down of the Berlin Wall

 

[IATT]

this dudes really got a limited playbook only new plays they added is attacking women of color

 

[elpablo21]

D-Wade didn't die for this.

 

[Upptempo]

The President Obama statue laughing at him being carted away is the best part

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

“Define a lie”

- dwalk31

 

[Mark Antony]

“Define a lie”

- dwalk31

I remember finding something about him saying it once back in the day, denouncing the term and it's use. Again the the bill was initially well intentioned and had community support but was bastardized by the same conservative capitalists people want to give credit now for first steppin.

 

[Nike Jordan]

Just like Lebron won in 2016 and again in 2020*

 

[whywesteppin]

Just like Trump in 2016* and 2020*

 

[IATT]

 

[whywesteppin]

GUYS I HAVE GREAT NEWS!!!!!