OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[johnnyredstorm]

JCP the $9 straddle implies about a .90 move. JCP the past eight quarters is up 4 times with an average move of 11.89% and down 4 quarters with an average move of 9.15%. Implied move the past 8 quarters on average has been 14.28% and its actual move was 10.52% on average. This fiscal quarter the past two years has rallied once and sold off once with an average move of 20.32%.

9.96 is the top of value for the year so that'll probably be resistance if it gets a good report or spikes quickly.

Retail's tough right now. I'm long TGT for earnings with a 79-80 call spread expiring this week that I bought for .23 (4 lot), but that's only because of the demographic TGT has. Feel like although people aren't going to Macy's as much, or buying designer stuff like KORS, at least their getting there stuff at a more affordable retailer like TGT. Maybe the same can be said about JCP?

Good luck with your position either way.

 

[noskey]

Interested in how DDD performs tomorrow. No position in it, but still watching closely.

Might get in on a JCP option play though. They're generally volatile.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

remind me not to trade retail anymore for earnings

got long TGT fail
got short GPS fail

oh wells.

 

[supere14]

Based on two days closing im ahead two dollars a share, aftermarket im up only one.

However JCP excelled in all the numbers except EPS, no reason for it to drop so much, last quarter is missed more and dropped less.

Still can't decide whether to hold and hop for some news causing a short squeeze or just sell early tomorrow before i turn a loss.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

holding common through ER is very dangerous unless you have a long time frame and are buying some type of protection.

just have a plan. relying on hope is how most of us lose money.

 

[supere14]

holding common through ER is very dangerous unless you have a long time frame and are buying some type of protection.

just have a plan. relying on hope is how most of us lose money.

I guess i picked it up because it seemed undervalued and the majority of its risk evaporated but shorts are still trying to bring it down.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

yeah i mean things change too. it could've been undervalued at one point, but as its risen in price, it might be tougher to find new buyers so when you couple that with profit taking and short sellers, it can be a headache. nothing wrong with booking a profit. just have a plan and see what makes most sense for you moving forward.



i had a solid january, a terrible february, so hopefully i have an awesome march and get back on track. currently down on the year, but it isn't insurmountable by any means. one or two really good weeks and I'm back in the green. gotta just refine my process.

 

[noskey]

Earnings can be a fickle *****. Not surprised at the JCP slaughter after-hours. As long as it continues tomorrow I'll book a solid profit on a 9/10 strangle.

JCP will start to bounce back next week though. If you're in it for the long haul Supere14, and truly feel it's undervalued as a company, stick with them, maybe even buy some more shares in this dip.

 

[supere14]

I might buy some more JCP stock just got to move some money.

 

[dman14]

what do you think of BAC?
downgraded today by analyst

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1306...tock-lower-today-after-analyst-downgrade.html

 

[tripleddd]

Monster move by $GOOGL the past couple days 

 . Had a few 545 calls a couple days back and sold around 4.25 for a few hundred profits and its currently at 20+

. 

 

[johnnyredstorm]

BAC bottom of value for the year is 15.76. wouldn't wanna be long if it loses that level and it becomes resistance. 16.07 is the bottom of value for next month. could chop around in that 30 cent range. if you really like this name, could get long here with a stop at LoD or wait for a break back into value for the month. I'm not a fan of this sector whatsoever.

 

[dman14]

BAC bottom of value for the year is 15.76. wouldn't wanna be long if it loses that level and it becomes resistance. 16.07 is the bottom of value for next month. could chop around in that 30 cent range. if you really like this name, could get long here with a stop at LoD or wait for a break back into value for the month. I'm not a fan of this sector whatsoever.

i've been holding on to this thing for ages. surprised it was at a high of 18 late last yr. picked up some more at 15.75

 

[flyny]

Ok guys so I know nothing about trading/investments/etc. I think I posted in this thread months ago, but I don't even remember what I asked, so imma just get to the point

In regards to investments and that stuff, all I know of is 401k, and buy low sell high when it comes to stock.

If there's a way I can make an extra $1000 a month off some trading, just to fulfill my ignorance fueled wants ( ) please tell me lol

 

[bravelude]

best platform? there isn‘t. no such thing. well,,,

just lose money and youll know. srs advice.

Ok guys so I know nothing about trading/investments/etc. I think I posted in this thread months ago, but I don't even remember what I asked, so imma just get to the point

In regards to investments and that stuff, all I know of is 401k, and buy low sell high when it comes to stock.

If there's a way I can make an extra $1000 a month off some trading, just to fulfill my ignorance fueled wants ( ) please tell me lol

Invest in MEAT cutters.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

once you learn how to trade sure, but if you're just starting off, lol be prepared to lose money. i'd start with as little capital as possible just so there's less you can burn through. and study study study.

 

[wizards23]

I agree the only way to gain experience and to know if you are cut out for this game is to lose actual dollars. Paper trading is great to test your strategy but nothing can be substituted for having your capital at risk. There is no way to duplicate the emotions you will go through other than to actually do it. You can train to be a great basketball player all you want but to be great at basketball you have to play a lot of basketball. To be good at trading you must actually trade. And don't get into trading for the money, you will lose yours

 

[tripleddd]

I agree the only way to gain experience and to know if you are cut out for this game is to lose actual dollars. Paper trading is great to test your strategy but nothing can be substituted for having your capital at risk. There is no way to duplicate the emotions you will go through other than to actually do it. You can train to be a great basketball player all you want but to be great at basketball you have to play a lot of basketball. To be good at trading you must actually trade. And don't get into trading for the money, you will lose yours

well said

 

[johnnyredstorm]

good traders thinks about how much he can make, great trader thinks about how much he can lose.

 

[supere14]

Johnny what platform or site do you use to look at metrics? Think or Swim?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Always use Think Or Swim for charting (and pricing out options spreads). I've got a buddy that programs that created some scripts for TOS so I picked up my value area study from him and his earnings analysis tool. If I don't feel like starting TOS up and just wanna look at a daily or weekly chart real quick with the ichimoku cloud, I hit up stockcharts.com.

Looking to get back on track Monday, new month new week, fresh mindset. Gotta work more on my patience both entering a trade and exiting. If I feel like being aggressive, I'm gonna start using a starter position (like a 5 lot) to get a feel so I don't have to worry about being chopped up too much in the first 15 minutes of the day like I did a few times in February. This way I can add in and/or have a wider stop. Overall, I wanna be more patient taking better signals on breaks out of value than just rushing stuff out of boredom.

 

[dman14]

I agree the only way to gain experience and to know if you are cut out for this game is to lose actual dollars. Paper trading is great to test your strategy but nothing can be substituted for having your capital at risk. There is no way to duplicate the emotions you will go through other than to actually do it. You can train to be a great basketball player all you want but to be great at basketball you have to play a lot of basketball. To be good at trading you must actually trade. And don't get into trading for the money, you will lose yours

this. got to get the feet wet and just test the waters
first yr i was down 20pct. learn from mistakes.
now i am starting to see the gains in my investment

 

[johnnyredstorm]

some basic rules for rookies:

don't add to losing positions unless that was your plan from the get go—i.e., taking a starter to get a feel and slowly adding in.
recognize and cut your losers quickly. it's ok to admit you're wrong, it's not ok to lose your inventory being foolish or egotistical.
don't obsess over missing trades, 4000 stocks out there to trade, always another chance.
always have a plan, know your max pain and follow your rules.
if you're trading options, learn how theta and implied volatility work. if you're buying out of the money options, front month premium kills if you don't get that fast and aggressive move in the right direction.
never get stubborn when shorting stocks, they can continue rising regardless of how much of a turd the company is.
never sell options naked, always create a credit spread if you want to take in premium. last thing you want is potential blowout risk.
if you're feeling emotional, cut your size in half.
don't short in the hole unless you're prepared to cover quickly into the washout. don't fight something short as it grinds against you.
the market is always right and you're the one that's wrong. don't fight the market.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

punted my GLD risk reversal for a 4.55 debit. my SLV calls are worthless as well. last time I trade this stuff

 

[wizards23]

oil poised to make a leg up soon imo.. interested in BAS chart on 8 break