Official Warriors Off Season Thread

[mjdalegend]

[h1]Kawakami: Warriors' draft decision could help define team's future[/h1]
Tim Kawakami
Mercury News Columnist

Article Launched: 06/26/2008 01:36:21 AM PDT

After all the sweat, gossip and draft-circus hoo-ha, it could end up as a very easy decision for Chris Mullin today.
The no-brainer: Louisiana State's multi-skilled, upwardly mobile forward Anthony Randolph if he's still there for the Warriors' 14th overall selection in the NBA draft.

It's probably 50/50 that Randolph is on the board when the Warriors' turn is called. And by the way, Randolph is still only 18, so I can imagine Don Nelson scrambling to change Mullin's mind if Randolph is there.

But, assuming he is, I doubt Mullin would bypass Randolph's vast future, even if he's not ready to play right away for Nelson.

Randolph, for the Warriors' purposes, is easy. Too much offensive potential to ignore, too exciting to imagine teaming with Brandan Wright long, long into the post-Nelson future.

But . . . the great and careful plans could be tossed awry if Randolph and the Warriors' other slam-dunk options are gone by 14, if the Warriors can't come up with a simple replacement choice, and if the choice comes down to a future guess or a Nellie-bartered compromise.

That's when the draft would get fun, risky, wild and potentially strange for the Warriors.

If it's not Randolph, then the Warriors' move at 14 will be under pressure and probably will tell us a lot about their mindset heading into what could be Nelson and Baron Davis' final Bay Area season.

It could be safe, not-very-exciting Kansas small forward Brandon Rush. He's a known
quantity, plays hard, can play fast, and I can imagine Nelson plopping him right into the extremely important role that Matt Barnes used to fill.
If it's Rush, the message: The Warriors are going to stick it out with Baron/Nellie for a little while longer and fill in the gaps around last season's 48-victory core.

It could be interesting-but-flawed Syracuse forward Donte Greene, whose main skill is long-distance shooting and whose main flaw is that he might not have any other main skills. Message: Not so good news for Marco Belinelli, so how does this make the Warriors significantly better?

It could be smooth-shooting Ohio State center Kosta Koufos; remember, for Nellie, the only good 7-footer is a three-point-shooting 7-footer. Message: More fill-in-the-gaps, less plan-for-tomorrow, no need to match up with physical big guys.

It could be late-rising Rider power forward Jason Thompson for pure stylistic fit. He's a fluid, ball-handling big man with some presence, and the Warriors have a huge need for all of that. But Thompson didn't exactly dominate in a shaky league, and he certainly doesn't project to stardom.

Or Mullin could try to trade down and find a more appropriate slot in which to select Thompson and maybe pick up something else along the way.

Message if it's Thompson: Mullin's trying to set the stage for Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Wright as the centerpieces by adding complementary players for the long term.

And if Mullin and owner Chris Cohan really want to show that they're crackling on all cylinders, they could draft Randolph or Rush at 14 and then try to use future draft picks, $3 million in cash or their $9.9 million trade exception to jump back to 19 or 21, where they could draft Thompson.

That would take some initiative. That would take some money, so Cohan and President Robert Rowell would have to sign off. But that would also be a fairly impressive way to walk out of the 2008 draft.

Randolph and Thompson? That, I think, would be the ultimate message.

Whether Davis stays or goes beyond the February trade deadline, whether Nelson stays or goes beyond this season, whether Ellis and Biedrins can be reasonably re-signed as restricted free agents, if the Warriors can draft two impact players, Mullin will be on his way to something.

If Cohan is willing to burn some extra money - the way Paul Allen does with Portland and Mark Cuban does for Dallas - he'll be telling Warriors fans that he does not take them for granted and that even if Davis departs in a year, the Warriors have an eye on a brighter future.

Let's summarize: Davis, the Warriors' best player, is unhappy he hasn't landed a mega-extension and will be working on the final year of his contract; Nelson is year to year at all times; the rest of the league is watching what the Warriors do with Ellis and Biedrins very carefully; Wright is a super-talented question mark.

Mullin can't take care of all those issues today. But he can start. It can happen by Randolph falling in his lap or by Mullin and Cohan jumping into the fray with cash in hand and targets highlighted.

It's a great preview for a sultry summer ahead.

 

[nothingtol0se]

oh man, i'm friggin' hyped up for it to go downnn

 

[andrew630]

everyone is saying d greene is a bust

 

[downyboy]

patrick ewing jr.

 

[daprescription]

Donte Greene had good workouts and was supposed to be one of the best inconing players last season. he is an offensive minded player, but people question hisshot selection and whether he has it in him to reach his potential. I think rush is the safe pick but I would like speights. he has the size that we lack downlow.
and baron cant be traded until july 4th(I believe).

 

[enlightened thought]

i don't want greene because once jax leaves, we'll have jax v. 2.0. similar to jax, green dribbles down the court and chucks from three. i can onlyput up with that for so long...

 

[vietsta4o8]

jason thompson ftw

 

[franchise 55]

This has nothing to do with the draft, but I would like to see the Warriors go after James Jones. The Warriors could use a 3 point shooter that can actuallyshoot 3s.

 

[acidicality]

i think now i'm on the Randolph bandwagon

, IF he falls to us it's a no-brainer. if not, i guess Arthur/Rush or someone like that is cool..aslong as it's not Koufos or Robin Lopez, I'll be happy with anything.

 

[lazyj10]

I wouldn't mind moving something to get Marcus Williams as a backup.

Thoughts?

 

[acidicality]

The laptop thief?
Yeah, if it's a good trade I'm down for it...as long as we don't give up anything that's really valuable to us.

 

[livemyreality]

I'm excited!!! 3 hours away...I hope they also make a trade tonight that helps the team. Yi Jianlian is in New Jersey now. Hahaha. Happy Trails RichardJefferson.

 

[mjdalegend]

[h2]The Warriors should, but probably won't, offer $$$ to land an extra No. 1 tonight[/h2]
Posted by Tim Kawakami on June 26th, 2008 at 7:32 am | Categorized as NBA, Warriors

* Quick answer to a very good question from an e-mailer that I'll import over here: Reader FN looks at Toronto's unofficial acquisition of Jermaine O'Neal for T.J. Ford and Rasha Nesterovic and a pick last night, which can't be announced until July 9, and wonders what the hell I'm talking about when I rule out some proposed trades because they can't be done until July 9. Reader FN says: See, they can be done, they just can't be official.
-My response: Sorry FN, good argument but you're not quite right. The only reason the O'Neal deal can't be made official is because of a totally different reason than I've addressed-Ford is a base-year player and therefore can't be traded until the next fiscal year. (He's under contract, but his money counts differently next fiscal year).

My oft-repeated point is that PENDING FREE AGENTS cannot be traded until July 9. Big difference.

There are no pending F/As in that Toronto-Indy deal. If there were, this thing would not/could not have even leaked because you have to have a contract to even contemplate a deal and to have a contract the F/A involved would have to negotiate with the new team and THAT IS NOT ALLOWED until July 1 and can't be made official until July 9.

* To go further on the arcania… a Luxury Tax clarification for only me and a few wanna-be cap-ologists: Not that the Warriors are going to use the TE and therefore add salary before June 30, but… Even if they do and get their total payroll over the $67.8M lux-tax line for this fiscal year, they WOULD NOT be hit with immediately lux-tax penalties.

The lux-tax "snapshot" is measured by your final regular-season roster. If you're over the lux tax then, you get the mid-July penalty. If you make moves AFTER the reg-season finale but before June 30, you do not face lux-tax jeopardy until NEXT season's finale. This is complicated, but even if the Warriors add $9.9M in salary tomorrow, which takes them to about $70M, they'd have a full year to use different mechanisms to drop back down by the end of next season to avoid the lux tax.

(Of course the Biedrins/Ellis raises are expected to take them WAY UP in July, so that's whole other issue.)

Here I go spending Chris Cohan's money again, but he owns the team, so he's going to hear the recommendations…

Chris, you're not exactly beloved by Warriors Nation. You've had some missteps. Lately, you've been OK. But still kind of an enigma: Cheap, not-cheap… which is it? It's hard to tell.

Well, I've got a way for Cohan to prove something. I don't think he's going to allow Chris Mullin to use the trade exception, but I sort of understand-that'd get the GSWs into the luxury tax and the lux-tax is a killer. They're not going there unless it's for a franchise player and a FP is not available.

Buying a draft pick? Now that's different. Sort of. And it might be an option, since it has already happened once in this very draft. (The Warriors could also use part of their TE to try to get back into the 20s, but I just don't see it happening. They've got too much salary committed to beef up the payroll at all.)

If you've been following the whispers and hints about the Warriors' situation with the 14th pick, you should be sensing that unless Anthony Randolph falls to them, 14 isn't a great spot.

And even if they get Randolph, they'll still need some more cheap players-preferably talented, but cheap is most essential at this point-to fill out roster spots 10-15, since they have $60.7M already committed to just eight players for next season.

It's no secret that they like Rider C Jason Thompson, too. And maybe Robin Lopez or Kansas' Darrell Arthur or Nevada's JaVale McGee. It'd be nice for them to get one of those big guys, but not at the expense of a high-skilled wing player at 14, if that's what's there (Randolph or Kansas' Brandon Rush).

So… If Cohan is serious about this, and Mullin wants to try and actually can convince him, and they both realize that the situation calls for some more young talent building around Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Brandan Wright… while the franchise waits for the big contracts of Baron Davis, Al Harrington and Adonal Foyle (still sitting at about $6M on the cap next season) to expire…

It's time for the Warriors to pick at 14 and then try to buy their way back into the back-end of the first round. That's how Cohan perks up the populace. I'm not going to make management happy by saying this and publicly spending Cohan's money, but I can live with that.

Here's the argument:

* Charlotte just got the 20th pick from Denver for a future No. 1… but I don't know if the Warriors can get, say, No. 21 from New Jersey with a future No. 1.

I think they might be able to do it with some cash. $3M is the limit. Cohan has been good with money for his franchise, but I don't think that he's ever done something like that.

* The advantage with buying a pick is that $3M is being spent, but IT DOES NOT COUNT AGAINST THE LUXURY-TAX FIGURE.

When Paul Allen buys No. 1 picks for his team, as he did again this year by grabbing New Orleans' No. 27 overall… it's just added talent, but not added salary-cap headaches (other than the rookie salary).

* The Warriors are now in a spot where they can make a nice and possibly significant talent upgrade-presuming Jason Thompson is worth it, and I think he is, and that they can get him at 21, which I think they can-that also HELPS the cap status vs. the luxury tax.

Nearly irresistible, I'd say. (The other option: The Warriors fill out the roster with non-drafted minimum-wage guys. And not just the 14th and 15th men-I'm talking about 11 through 15, all D-League-level guys. It's possible this season.)

To add one more good player, all it might take is money. Cohan's money. Might cost a future No. 1, too, while they're at it, but again, if they load up a roster with Ellis, Wright, Biedrins, Belinelli, Randolph (for example) and Thompson (for another example)… well, are they going to need Pick No. 18 or 19 next season?

They'll be plenty young enough. And they'll have Baron's $17.8M coming off (if they don't trade him) and Foyle's $6M coming off (he'll still count for a few hundred thousand on 2009-2010 cap) and then Harrington will only have one year left.

Again: They'll need to fill roster spots this year, anyway. Cheaply. Azubuike might come relatively cheap, Barnes is going to cost a little and you have the 14th pick.

So that's 11 players on the roster, and that's assuming they re-sign Ellis and Biedrins at a digestible rate.

They are going to need cheap young players. If they can get another GOOD ONE… without the acquisition costing any more on the salary cap… I think now is the time, especially if they have Thompson, Lopez or Arthur all targeted and potentially available at 21 or whatever pick they can land in the 20s.

It's time for Cohan to try. If he doesn't try, it's time for Warriors fans to recognize the lack of trying and wonder if that'll carry through to other salary decisions.

 

[mjdalegend]

[h2]If the Warriors are targeting Randolph, here are the hot spots ahead of 14[/h2]
Posted by Tim Kawakami on June 26th, 2008 at 11:39 am | Categorized as College basketball, NBA, Warriors

* 1 p.m. Yi-for-Richard Jefferson POST-TRADE IMPLICATIONS/UPDATE… updates marked in ITALICS.

As for the Clippers swapping their No. 7 for Seattle's No. 4 (for a future Clip No. 1), I'm guessing that's LAC getting desperate for either Westbrook or Bayless and Seattle played it perfect: Smokescreen about taking Westbrook to get LAC to jump, then fall back to 7 where the Sonics can let either Brook Lopez, Gordon or possibly Love fall to them, which is just about what they'd be considering at 4, anyway. Plus they get a future pick. Nice move.

I'm now presuming heavily that the Warriors' best/most likely wish is to land LSU combo forward Anthony Randolph with the 14th pick and that they'll hold off on any possible movement (back in the draft or just swap the pick for a veteran) until they know if Randolph is gone or not.

Because if he's there, my guess is that Chris Mullin is taking Randolph and all trade options involving the 14 are out the window. (If Randolph isn't there, then we might see some Mullin wheeling and dealing. Or at least a major effort at it. 14 just doesn't seem right for the Warriors if it's not Randolph so I think they'd try to move out.)

The problem, unless this is a massive GSW smokescreen: The Warriors are far from the only team that likes Randolph plus there has been some movement in the last 24 hours that may not help the Warriors' hope that Randolph sneaks through to 14.

This reminds me of the 2004 first round, when Mullin zeroed in on Andris Biedrins with the 11th and had to hold his breath through Toronto's pick at 8 (Rafael Araujo), Philly's pick at 9 (Andre Igoudala-first name caused Warriors' war room a lot of grief when it was called out) and Cleveland's pick at 10 (Luke Jackson).

Here are the Warriors/Randolph worry spots, as I see them:

* Milwaukee at No. 8: I truly believe the Bucks will take Joe Alexander here, but you never know, the Randolph upside might take over. This might not actually be a terrible thing for the Warriors if it kicks Alexander down-doubt he'd last to 14, but you do never know.


OK, Milwaukee just picked up SF Richard Jefferson, and his multiple years at mega-bucks, and gave up Yi and Bobby Simmons. So does this mean the Bucks won't take another explosive small forward-such as Alexander? Plus one of top reasons we all had Alexander at this spot was his fluent Mandarin, to communicate with Yi. Who is now in NJ.

Yikes. I think this makes Randolph a slightly more likely pick for the Bucks because he's more like Yi and Simmons than he is Jefferson. (Getting rid of Simmons' awful deal is a big part of the Bucks' reasoning for this trade

Don't know what Milwaukee really is doing here, because right now it's Bogut, aging Redd, aging Jefferson, Villanueva, some scoring guards, draft pick

* Charlotte at No. 9: Big worry spot for Mullin, since his buddy Rod Higgins is the GM and they like similar players. Charlotte just picked up No. 20, too, and sounds like the Bobcats want to leap up to No. 5 or so for Kevin Love or Russell Westbrook… so I don't know if, say, Memphis picking here goes for Randolph or not.

If Charlotte keeps this pick, it could be Randolph or, if he falls, Brook Lopez, or whichever explosive guard falls (Bayless, Westbrook, Gordon). Or it could be D.J. Augustin.

* New Jersey at No. 10: We've all got Danilo Gallinari pencilled into this slot, but if the Knicks take him at 6 (doubt it, but I have to plot out for the chance), then the Nets might go for Randolph over Jordan/whatever guard is still there.

I don't think this is a serious worry spot with Richard Jefferson on this roster, but I see DraftExpress.com has Randolph going here and I guess the Nets could move Jefferson, so I'd better account for the possibility.

-OK, no more Jefferson in Jersey. They now have Yi, Simmons, Devin Harris and a bunch of other non-significant stuff. I doubt this changes their opinion about Gallinari-if he's there, he's a Net. But sounds like he might not get past the Knicks. If it's not Gallinari, I've got to believe NJ is a candidate to take Randolph now that Jefferson is outta there.

And if Randolph isn't ready now… all the better to prepare the team for a big impact free agent in a short period.

* Indiana at No. 11: Everybody had the Pacers marked down for Augustin until their deal for T.J. Ford happened. Now they Ford and Tinsley, so Augustin is less likely. But they also have Granger and Dunleavy… Do they go for a combo-forward here in Randolph? Possibly…

I'd guess the Pacers go bigger, however-they can gamble on DeAndre Jordan or Marreese Speights here since they now have 17 to fall back on for a dependable player.

* Sacramento at No. 12: Big Randolph risk here for the Warriors, especially if Augustin goes at 9 or 11. I think the Kings are set to take Augustin if he's there, but if he's not… Randolph sure looks like a Geoff Petrie kind of player-versatile, can handle it, projects to the sky.

For Randolph to get to the Warriors, they need Augustin available here for the Kings.

* Portland (or whoever ends up with this pick) at No. 13: GM Kevin Pritchard almost always takes the highest-ceiling player and that'd obviously be Randolph here. But I doubt he's using this pick-he traded into No. 27 and he already has 14 guaranteed contracts for next season, so he doesn't need another rookie here.

The Warriors probably will be hoping a team that's targeting Brandon Rush, Kosta Koufos, Speights, Robin Lopez or somebody like that trades up into 13. Of course, somebody could be trying to move up into Portland's spot to take Randolph, too, and that wouldn't help the Warriors.

Now, what do the Warriors do if Randolph's not there, and again, I'd say it's a 50-50 or lower proposotion that he is…

* Stay at 14 and take Rush, Donte Greene, Jason Thompson or one of the other guys: Koufos, Darrell Arthur, Speights, Robin Lopez, JaVale McGee.

-I'd say Rush would be the most likely choice in this scenario. Thompson would be second-most likely.

* Trade down to 21 or so for a more appropriate slot to take Thompson or McGee.

* Trade 14 and some other things for a young veteran big man.

More on this, obviously, as the draft arrives…

 

[daprescription]

Athur isn't even projected as a lottery pick anymore. too many bad things about his health, so he's a late first rounder now.

 

[srvballer]

I wouldn't mind Arthur or Greene.....but Jason Thompson is looking like a solid pick to me.

 

[lazyj10]

My boy and I were chatting....maybe take JT later, trade our pick and move down...grab someone to fill a backup position? Unless they REALLY want him at 14.

I mean, everyone has said he's the EXACT OPPOSITE of POB, therefore....?

 

[jdmfanatic]

Originally Posted by Enlightened Thought

i don't want greene because once jax leaves, we'll have jax v. 2.0. similar to jax, green dribbles down the court and chucks from three. i can only put up with that for so long...

Jax 2.0.

That's just my bias though, Jax is my favorite guy on the team.

 

[sriracha hot sauce]

PLEASE dont take another stiff. Koufos is gonna be the next Todd Fuller if we draft him.

 

[japanair21]

I REALLY think Koufos won't be drafted by GSW.


GSW fans want to start a draft aim chat?

 

[ady2glude707]

Dont draft any white guys!

 

[franchise 55]

^ Agreed. I really can't see the Warriors drafting Koufos.

 

[daprescription]

Damn Chad Ford: " Or is he going to be another bust like Patrick O'Bryant"

.

 

[acidicality]

I heard that too. I was like "what the @$*% are you talking about?"

 

[TheGodFresco]

Originally Posted by JapanAir21

I REALLY think Koufos won't be drafted by GSW.


GSW fans want to start a draft aim chat?

i'm down