[h2]OK, let's say the Warriors renounce Baron Davis or he signs with another team outright…[/h2]
Posted by
Tim Kawakami on June 30th, 2008 at 9:56 pm | Categorized as
NBA,
Warriors
*
Final update of the night, at 10:25 p.m.: Just remembered-if I'm going to be wrong about something this public, it's good to be wrong right alongside Don Nelson, who also said that there was no chance Baron would opt-out. Don might be goofy, but he's usually dead-on about money. Big money, especially. Don and I: WRONG.
First off, this isn't about me, but as has been correctly pointed out by several commenters, I did dare Baron Davis to opt-out. I said he wouldn't. And dared him to do it.
He did it. The guy has guts (or a side deal or something) and that's sort of what makes Baron the player that he is, the interesting man he is and often the pain-in-the-butt that he is.
You can rip me all you want on this one. I'll take it. Have to take it. Hey, I always take the rippage. I'm sure it had less than 0% to do with Davis' decision-making, but I called him out and he answered. I acknowledge that.
Second off, here's a link to
the column I filed not long ago for tomorrow's Mercury News. You may find it interesting that I'd already written a quickly-crashed column arguing that Davis should be traded and was in the process of filing it when the news hit around 6:50 that he was indeed opting out.
Shockingly, I still think he should be traded, post-opt-out. I really, really think that now.
It's no secret that Davis' agent Todd Ramasar had been measuring trade/signing interest for Davis around the league and it's no surprise that Chris Mullin knew about it and didn't mind it at all.
So let's say the Warriors play ultra-hard ball with Baron now. I think Mullin will want to keep talking, but hardball is still possible given the way the Warriors dealt with Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus last year and given that they may feel slightly hoodwinked by Davis' opt-out.
Let's say Mullin tells Davis and Ramasar:
* Either you find us a sign-and-trade deal with one of your other-team contacts that's good for the Warriors by Monday July 7 (deals can't be made official until July 9, but they're almost always agreed-upon before that);
* Or you agree to re-sign with the Warriors for two years and $28M (about what they offered Davis in the last extension talks) by July 7; maybe to spur negotiations, Mullin ups it to two years, $30M;
* Or the Warriors will renounce Baron's rights on July 7 at 8 a.m. and there goes any sign-and-trade opportunity, there goes the chance to make large money from any team except Memphis or possibly Philly (neither is likely).
Agreeable sign-and-trade, re-sign for the Warriors' price or get renounced by Monday, July 7. Period.
That would be a risky move by Mullin, Chris Cohan and Bobby Rowell. That would open them up to possible criticism that the franchise is being cheap, has been cheap and will never pay enough to get over the hump.
(I wouldn't agree on the Baron part. Would agree on the not-using-the-trade-exception part, presuming we don't get hit with another thunderbolt tomorrow morning.)
But let's say all that I've sketched out happens, and Davis calls the Warriors bluff and they either renounce him or he signs with somebody else, either for the mid-level exception or to an under-the-cap team, perhaps the Clippers if they find a way to manuever Baron's and Elton Brand's deals just right.
What would the Warriors' cap situation look like if Davis was removed entirely? And what if they also renounce Mickael Pietrus (tough one because I'm sure they want to retain his S/T rights), Patrick O'Bryant (not 100%, but probably) and Matt Barnes (yes)?
By my count, they'd have $39.1M on the books, committed to nine players (a 10th, Adonal Foyle, still counts for about $6.2M next season).
That includes No. 1 pick Anthony Randolph and a $7.8M cap hold for restricted free agent Andris Biedrins and $800k cap holds for both RFAs Monta Ellis and Kelenna Azubuike.
$39.1M is about $19M less than the expected 2008-2009 salary cap. That's $19M to spend for the Warriors, who have always spent at or over the cap number. That's a lot of money. That might be reduced if the Warriors hold off renouncing Pietrus ($7M cap hold) or POB ($2.4M), just to retain their rights for sign-and-trade possibilities.
But if Baron, Pietrus, Barnes and POB all get renounced, the players on the books would be:
-Al Harrington, $9.2M.
-Stephen Jackson, $7.1M.
-(Adonal Foyle, $6.2M).
-Andris Biedrins, $7.8M cap hold.
-Brandan Wright, $2.5M.
-Kosta Perovic, $1.7M.
-Marco Belinelli, $1.5M.
-Anthony Randolph, $1.5M.
-Monta Ellis, $800k cap hold.
-Kelenna Azubuike, $800k cap hold.
If Pietrus isn't renounced, the Warriors would be at $46.1M with 10 players on the roster. That'd be about $12M to spend under the cap.
All of this is presuming that the Warriors would hold off on re-signing Ellis before they go shopping for other free agents, because he'll almost certainly get a deal starting at $7M or $8M and that would eat up more than $6M in cap room.
Summation: After Baron's opt-out, anything is possible this summer. Really, anything. Good, bad, wild. Anything.
