The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

I like Lyles a lot, but am unsure if he's athletic enough or can develop into the shooter that many bill him he can be
 
I think he'll be a solid rotation player plug in starter. I dont know if I can see him as an all star caliber player.
 
Luke Ridnour and his Kobe Vs were traded to the Grizzles

Likely to see them package him and Green for something.
 
RT @Peter_Fleischer I've heard some interesting Grizz info the last 48 hours. I'd actually be surprised if their only transaction is No.25 in the NBA Draft.

RT @KevinHFY Grizzlies have a bunch of non-guaranteed guys on the back-end of the roster now. Ridnour, Udrih, Leuer, JamYchal, Russ. Nice trade chips.
 
Here is my big board ranked with gaps to signal where I think the drops in talent are.

I was like to put it out their so I'm on the record if im right or wrong. my more detailed comments in the spoiler.

second round picks I like up next




Karl Towns

Enough ink has been spilled, while I'm not so certain he's going to be a dominant main offensive cog, he's still an all star even if he doesn't become that. He does so many things well and is perfectly formulated for today's NBA a big who can stretch the floor, protect the rim and punish teams in the post if they go small.



Dangelo Russel
Mario Hezonja
Jahlil Okafor
Emmanuel Mudiay
On Dangelo Russel I've often said the most dangerous skill a point guard prospect can have the ability to shoot off the dribble 3's on a high pick and rolls, and when you combine that with elite vision, the threat of that shooting creates so many passing lanes, especially when pared with a stretch 4.

I'm not convinced Dangelo Russel is a Steph Curry shooter, he didn't have that reputation in high school (he shot .303 in AAU) and the risk with him is if he isn't an elite shooter his lack of burst will be exposed. I love his game and he strikes me as a mix between Harden and Manu.

Mario Hezonja is a can't miss guy imo. My love for his game is well documented. The concerns about his lack of free throw attempts I believe are overblown, he drew a bunch of fouls in international play. I think the low FTA mostly stems form his extremely defined role at Barcelona. He also has really good vision, or at least much better than the highlights would have you believe, he can see the court, the whole offense ran through him when he played for Croatia, has good feel for running pick and roll. I do worry how NBA vets will deal with his attitude.

He's an elite athlete, and shooter with deep range. He's aggressive, he can defend I mean what am I m star.


Jahlil Okafor has the highest floor, I would be shocked if he doesn't average at least 18 ppg at some point in his career. The concerns about his defense are getting a bit exaggerated; with his size he can protect the rim a little in the right scheme, he knows where to be and what to do he's just a little slow. It's not like Jabari last year where he was constantly in the wrong spot.

also there is hidden defensive value in high volume post up scorers, you can play a half court game which improves your defense, also it forces a bad offensive player on the court. example: Warriors most dangerous unit is with Draymond at 5, you can't do that against Jahlil. Bogut or Ezili have to be on the court. So while his defense is a problem, it's solvable. The real problem is finding a PF that fits well with him.

Also as the league gets smaller his skills play up. Teams will be less prepared to stop him nightly.

Emmanuel Mudaiy I'm lukewarm on I just really don't like point guards that can't shoot, because the numbers say it's t[tough to build an elite offense with a guy who can't shoot 3's pounding the ball. I obviously see the athleticism and the potential, and his shots not broken, it just doens't go in. (which somehow seems worse). But I really respect the way he handled things in china, he could have packed it in, and at 18 years old how many guys would have stayed the course and remained professional. Going to isreal destroyed jermey tyler, There are college seniors who can't handle it in Europe let alone guagdong china.

I think Mudaiy floor is high, I think he's a starter in this league, but its tough for me to see stardom for any none shooting PG without Drose/John Wall level athleticism.




Justice Winslow
Willey Cauley Stein
Frank Kaminsky
Kristaps Porzingis
Stanley Johnson

Playing small ball PF in college as an NBA level perimeter athlete is basically the coors feild of stat inflation. Justise Winslow didn't start taking off until duke put him in that Small ball PF role. I loved Justise for long time as a MKG do it all, winning type of player and I still like him that way. The idea that he's Harden is insane to me, he doesn't have that type of handle and wont shoot it that well in the NBA. He was horrible shooting everything except 3 point shots which the numbers will tell you means 3 point regression is coming.

Can Wiley Cauley Stein figure out NBA defensive schemes? Can he understand rotations, where to be, understand angels, pick up the footwork required to be a great defender? If he can he's a DPOY candidate if he can't he's Brendan Wright, good shot blocker but bad defender.

I talked about this is last year but it's great if a guy can stretch the floor it's even better when you have a guy who can play both big and small at the same time. A guy who can punish small guys in the post but shoot well enough to stretch the floor. Boris Diaw, Draymond Green both do this, I think Kyle Aderson might be able to do this and I think Frank Kaminsky will do this.

I've come around on Frank, it's impossible for me to believe that an elite 3 point shooter with a quick release, with a post game and a good passer to boot is going to fail. I think he suped up version of Channing Frye and that's incredibly valuable in today's NBA. and for all the talk of his athleticism he didn't have a problem scoring on Kentucky and WCS in the final four.

Its tough for me to shake the Kristaps Prozigis - Andrea Barngani comparisons, but I can't forget that Bargnani was not a complete bust, I mean he's made like 60 mil in his career and will continue to find employment in the NBA. I don't belive Kristaps is this super elite shooter, I think much like Bargnani can shoot it well for a big. You look at his freethrow rate, and his career percentages and they dont scream lights our Dirk level shooter. and his low assist rate indicates a low BBall IQ at a position where understanding rotations is paramount. There is a lot of risks but if you have good player devlopment people the physical tools are too tatalizing to pass up.

There was like a cult of Stanley Johnson that developed when he was high school that served as an indictment for the term "winner", because he won 4 straight state titles people started making him out to be this guy with perfect intagibles. Then he got to Arizona, and you saw his motor ran hot and cold, you saw he didn't compete and make winning plays like other high intangible guys like Justise WInslow or MKG. but he was playing the 2 at Arizona, in a terrible offensive system. despite that he still performed pretty well. I think if he can defend 2's he could use his physical size to punish smaller player much like Shabazz Muhamed did last year. He's slow laterally but fast in a straight line, could be a terror on the break.




Myles Turner
R.J. Hunter
Devin Booker
Trey Lyles
RHJ


This tends to be the crap shoot portion of the draft, teams are bad enough where they need are star and aren't good enough to take a role player like Devin Booker, who I think is just a solid role player on the next level, who projects to play league average defense and shoot 40% form 3, you may think the lottery is too high for that but if you look at the average value for picks in this range and role player is a good get.

Myles Turner, Trey Lyles are the risks, are the swing for the fences picks, Myles feels like a shooter who can't shoot, his physical softness, and stiff hips he just looks like he's going to struggle with injuries. but guys who can protect the rim and stretch the floors are so rare and basically every team needs one. He feels like Patrick O'bryant to me sometimes, but teams at this point in the draft still can't afford to play it safe.

RJ Hunter is an elite shooter with deep range and a quick release, is a good passer and will thrive as a secondary ball handler running side pick and rolls after the ball has reveasred to him. and has enough shake to attack close outs. His body needs work but he has a nice frame and wide shoulders where putting on the weight should be no problem. I loved RJ Hunter for two years now and I'm all the way in.

Trey Lyles just needs to learn to hit a 3, his jumper looks smoother in workouts, but in college it was secretly a mess, very line drive with a hitch. but if he learns to hit a 3 he can play that sort dual big/small, he's 6-10 is a very smart defender, best case could he play that Draymond Green role with more offense?

RHJ will be an elite defender, and is has a nice feel for the game, but he can't shoot, and likely will never be able too, still has value that teams will probably pass up at this point in the draft.


Tyus Jones
Bobby Portis
Sam Dekker
Jerian Grant
Justin Anderson
Cameron Payne

Tyus Jones who looks like a league average PG to me, which has value in this league as a high level back up or a solid starter.

Bobby Portis
Will be in the league for the next 10 years hitting mid range jumpers and playing solid D as the first big off the bench. Highest floor guy in this part of the draft

Jerian Grant
Being old as dirt a bullying college players has me worried, but his jumper and his ability to run pick and roll got me thinking he's at least a good back up.

Justin Anderson
3 and d, just needs to get the 3 part. reminds me of Alan Anderson.

Cameron Payne
Really like his game, reminds me of Trey Burke and I loved Trey Burke in the draft this is well documented, but I think we figured out that no matter how many hesitation moves you have on the pick an roll, if you don't have elite burst you better be an elite shooter, Cam has neither so he's probably a backup.

Sam Dekker
Reminds me of Thad Young, I think he's probably best utilized as a stretch 4, I don't believe in his jumper or his handle as a perimeter player but he's absolutely big enough, and has a good enough handle to really be handful at power forward. in todays NBA.


Montrez Harrell
Kelly Oubre
Kevon Looney
Christian Wood
Michael Frazier
Delon Wright
Robert Upshaw
Jonathan Holmes
Chris McCullough

Montrezl Harrell
Reminds me of Amir Johnson, good defender, meh defensive rebounder, energy guy who protects the rim. Amir became such a smart heady defender you the same happens with Montrez.

Kelly Oubre
Kevon Looney


I would say Permanent potential but I don't see the potential and I never have, I see their potential to be future role players but not much more.

Christian Wood
Just really not impressed, hearing his interviews going bad, he was at the combine out of shape, played like an idiot at UNLV, Dave Rice is a terrible coach so you know he didn't learn anything over there. He's too long and athletic to drop him further than this on the off chance he figures it out. but it looks like it may take getting bounced out the league once or twice to get the lesson.

Michael Frazier
6-5 and can shoot 38% from 3? sounds like a long career in the NBA awaits.

Delon Wright
Needs to have the ball in his hands to be effective, but is he good enough to let you put the ball in his hands? If he can get on a team with a lot of shooting and he can run spread pick and role he could be really effective. Alot of his success will be determined by fit.

Robert Upshaw
Looks like Hassan Whiteside 2.0, except with possible substance abuse issues, I wouldn't want to give him guaranteed deal but mobile 7 footer might be too tough to pass up.

Jonathan Holmes
He's got a smart agent re branding him as a stretch 4. If he can get that jumper up league average, he's got a great body, and could be really good 3rd big.

Chris McCullough
early in the year he looked like a possible lottery pick, then he fell off then he tore his acl. 6'9 with a massive 9-1 standing reach, could offer some rim protection. you would hope he could stretch the floor but shot 33% from 3 in high school, with only 58% from the line, and he shot worse in college. only 65% form the line in aau. but he's jumper looks so good so it might start going in eventually.
 
Deep sleepers.


I like Olivier Hanlan as a Mario Chalmers type for a team with primary wing ball handlers like Houston or the Cavs. He was forced to carry a horrible BC squad, but I think as a secondary ball handler he could be really effective. Not a great athlete but good size and strength. I think he could fill that Chalmers or Pat Bev lite role.

Vince Hunter from UTEP is a deeper sleeper probably going undrafted, but I see a little bit of Draymond, good defender, really smart passer, high energy. If he could bulk up to 240 and maintain that mobility he could be a steal.

Don't let Pat Connaughton lack of melanin fool you elite athlete, can shoot it from 3, meh lateral quickness though. possible 3 and d guy.

is Joseph Young possible Patty Mills clone? He's tiny and old, but I still believe if you can make off the dribble thress you can play in this league and Oregon used him that way in college. He might go undrafted but there is a spot for him in the league as a back up.


Deep deep deep sleepers.


Kevin Pangos.
He can shoot 42% from 3 and I think is underrated defender. He's not slow, he's just tiny and has alligator arms. Mathew Dellavadova made it man, there is a spot for my son Pangos if he can find someone to believe in him.

T.J. McConnell
Same as Kevin can make 3's will compete on defense, less PG skills that Kevin but could be great on teams with big PG's or Wings as primary ball handlers.
 
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Can't see McConnell having a chance in the NBA as a player but he's a great teammate type of guy who will become a very good coach in the future. So he's worth rostering from that standpoint.
 
 
That's assuming they'll be able to find the right team that's motivated enough to pick their guy and make a satisfactory exchange.

Sometimes the NBA draft gets wacky and projections for certain spots don't come to fruition. It's not a cut & dry scenario. 

The sentiment about Lyles is exactly how I feel about WCS. If Zinger/Mudiay/Russ is their guy at 4 and they come off the board…stick with the pick and roll with Willie. Or if they just outright prefer him. Don't try to get cute and mess around with moving.
I agree with these sentiments. Get the player you ultimately want the most. However, IF you have the opportunity to trade back, get that player, and another need/asset in return, why the **** would you not do that? I agree, it is possible that opportunity isnt available, but if it is, it makes sense to do something like that rather than reaching for the player Phil likes most for this team at #4. 

For instance, if he really does love Lyles enough to reach on him at 4, and that Suns/Bledsoe offer really is on the table, and Lyles does fall to the 13th pick, why the **** would we turn down Eric Bledsoe just to take the same player? Especially if we can talk them into taking Calderon back. That would be a serious game changer.
Knicks and Nuggets talking trade? Knicks would trade the 4th pick for the 7th and Nurkic, also other news
http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/24/nb...uzz-demarcus-cousins-kevin-love-knicks-lakers
Let's turn these talks into a 3 way discussion with SacTown 
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Karl could get his boys (Lawson/Faried), Denver could unload 2 players they dont even want for a franchise caliber player like Mudiay to jumpstart their rebuilding, and the Knicks can get Boogie. Fill in the gaps along the way. Win-win-win... Well, except for Kings' fans 
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that baseball looks like a golf ball in his hand :x :x
 
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i need Philly's Porzingis smokescreen to force Orlando to trade up to #3...then Phil gets his choice of Russell/Mudiay :smokin
 
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@APkrawczynski: Another tip of the hand from Flip: Asked what they'll target in 2nd rd, free agency, he said the backcourt, shooting and ball-handling

@AdamZagoria: D'Angelo Russell has called Phil Jackson a 'genius' at least twice & says he apologized for Phil getting the fine

@AdamZagoria: Karl-Anthony Towns says he will have 'close to 40' family & friends at the Draft

@AdamZagoria: D'Angelo Russell calls Carmelo a 'superstar' and says he'd love to play with him/learn from him

@AdamZagoria: Russell also says playing with Nerlens Noel & Joel Embiid would give the Sixers a talented young core. Said just wants to play for NBA team

@nbadraftnet: Hearing teams are red flagging Rashad Vaughn's knee but there's a lot of speculation he has a promise with Milwaukee at 17, regardless.

@AdamZagoria: Willie Cauley-Stein says reports on his ankle are 'politics.' 'I don't feel any pain...I increased my vertical 5 inches.'
 
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If I'm Russell, I'd be praying to get picked before the Knicks.

Literally, ANY of the three teams before them would be a more suitable destination than NY.
 
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In the likely event that Michael Frazier falls to the second round, someone is going to get a steal.  His team was terrible, opponents keyed on him and he's got the physical tools to be at least a decent defender.  He's one of the top 3 shooters in the draft (Hezonja and Hunter)
 
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