Chad Ford Big Board 12.0
The NBA draft is just one day away. Teams are now finalizing their big boards in preparation for tomorrow night. Here's our final Big Board for the 2015 NBA draft.
Remember, these rankings aren't based on my opinion. They are based on talking with numerous NBA GMs and scouts. Obviously, each team has its own rankings and they'll differ from these. However, here's a consensus of what the NBA as a whole thinks.
Note: After you get past pick No. 8, this board gets pretty wacky. Keep in mind that consensus is used very lightly from that point on. Teams are all over the place on those 10 to 15 players. Some love them, some hate them. Everyone is essentially lumped together.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns began the season on Big Board 1.0 at No. 3 and ends it at No. 1. Of the 30 teams I spoke with, 29 had him No. 1. In July, concerns about his low-post ability and potential playing time issues (with Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson already on the roster) hurt his stock a little. One year later he's the most complete prospect in the draft. He has John Calipari to thank for some of that. Calipari insisted he put away his jump shot and learn how to play like a big man on both ends. He also has his teammates, against whom he had to bang every day in practice.
Towns isn't perfect now, but he's close. He can score in the paint and on the perimeter. He can protect the rim and rebound. He shoots free throws like a guard. And he's a great kid and proven worker. He needs to continue to add toughness and polish onto his overall game, but with so few weaknesses and so much upside, Towns looks like a potential superstar. He'll go either No. 1 to the Wolves or No. 2 to the Lakers.
2. D'Angelo Russell
Russell didn't crack our Big Board until early December when he debuted at No. 10 after getting off to a red hot start at Ohio State. In February he climbed up to No. 3 and two weeks ago he overtook Okafor for No. 2. Russell's meteoric rise was based on a terrific season where he proved to be both an elite shooter and passer. But his stock was also given a huge boost by the strong play of guards like Steph Curry and James Harden in the NBA. Scouts saw some of them in him, and in a league that follows trends carefully, he became the "it" guard in this draft.
With strong analytics scores to back up his lofty position, there are scouts who openly wonder whether, in five years, he'll be the best player in this draft. Russell will likely go either No. 2 to the Lakers, No. 3 to the Sixers or No. 4 to the Knicks. There's a chance he could go No. 1 to the Wolves (they are seriously exploring that option), but it's a long shot.
3. Jahlil Okafor
Okafor debuted on Big Board 1.0 at No. 1 and stayed there until March. Before that, he was the No. 1 ranked player in his recruiting class since he was a freshman in high school. In other words, he's been No. 1 for a long time. If the draft were held 15 years ago, when big men ruled the paint and coaches called more post-up plays, he'd still be No. 1. But the game is changing and Okafor's old-school game is considered old fashioned by some now. Combine that with poor defensive metrics and concerns about his athleticism (concerns he's working hard to overcome) and he's slid a little on some draft boards. Nevertheless, he's still considered by most teams as a future All-Star and he's the one guy that took a vote away from Towns being the unanimous No. 1 pick.
Okafor is still in the mix for No. 1 with Minnesota. He's also in heavy consideration with the Lakers at No. 2. If the Lakers keep their pick and Towns isn't on the board, I'm told it's 80-20 LA takes him. I don't think he gets past the Knicks at No. 4. If he does, he could be in for a draft day slide.
4. Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis has been riding a wave of positive buzz since his workout in Las Vegas last week. To say he's "rising" seems a little much. Porzingis began the draft year at No. 4 on Big Board 1.0, fell to No. 5 in February, and moves back up one spot in the final rankings to reflect the renewed interest in him from teams. More GMs than ever concede that he might have the most upside of anyone in the draft. But Towns, Russell and Okafor are all seen as safer -- thus Porzingis' placement here at No. 4. Porzingis has drawn interest from the Lakers at No. 2, though it seems like a long shot. More likely he'll go either to the Sixers at No. 3, the Knicks at No. 4 or the Magic at No. 5.
5. Emmanuel Mudiay
Mudiay began the draft year at No. 2. Clearly his decision to dump SMU and play pro ball in China has hurt his draft stock. It's unfortunate, as there's no real evidence he's suddenly regressed as a player. In fact, he's gotten bigger, stronger, has improved his jump shot and drew raves from his teammates and team officials in China for his maturity. The recency bias that plagues NBA scouting has really hurt him.
The Lakers brought him in for a second workout Thursday. He played against other prospects this time and sources inside the gym told me that it was much, much better than his first workout there. However, his more likely draft scenarios are with the Sixers at No. 3, the Knicks at No. 4, the Kings at No. 6 or the Nuggets at No. 7.
6. Mario Hezonja
Hezonja started on the Big Board at No. 9 and has slowly risen to the point that he's considered the best wing in a very strong wing field. In July, the concern centered on Hezonja's playing time. He rarely received any last season. This year he got a lot more minutes (albeit inconsistent ones) and whenever he was on the floor for an extended period of time, he made things happen. Last week he scored 18 points, five rebounds and shot 5-for-6 from 3-point range in the first game of the ACB Finals. He had five points on 1-for-2 shooting from 3 in the second game.
It's been that up-and-down play that has teams a little unsure. But Hezonja's size, athleticism and shooting ability, combined with supreme confidence should make him a star in the NBA. The Magic at No. 5, the Nuggets at No. 7 and the Pistons at No. 8 are his most likely landing spots
7. Justise Winslow
Winslow ends the year at the same spot he began -- No. 7 -- though his placement here feels a little low. Virtually every NBA front office loves his toughness, athleticism and motor. His poor measurements at the Combine (6-foot-4.5 in socks) hurt his stock a bit, as do some concerns about his ability to shoot off the bounce. But overall, Winslow projects as a very good player in the NBA -- borderline All-Star to very good starter. The Knicks at No. 4, the Magic at No. 5 and the Kings at No. 6 are all possibilities. However, the most likely range has him at the Nuggets at No. 7, the Pistons at No. 8 or the Heat at No. 10.
8. Willie Cauley-Stein
Cauley-Stein's been hanging out in the lottery on our Big Board since he was a freshman. In Big Board 1.0 he started at No. 12 and improved his stock despite not necessarily improving his numbers. His defensive prowess grew this year, he started to show of some semblance of a mid-range jumper and some more consistency. But it's still WCS' elite athletic and defensive abilities for his size that wow scouts. He's getting interest from the Knicks, Magic and Kings in the 4-6 range. The Hornets at No. 9 and the Heat at No. 10 are also possibilities. He doesn't get past the Pacers at No. 11.
9. Devin Booker
Booker also was unranked in Big Board 1.0 thanks to concerns about playing time and a lack of elite athletic ability. However, his stock rose with playing time, and by the end of the season many scouts believed he was the best shooter in the draft. With so many 3-point shooting teams thriving in the playoffs, his stock rose even higher in the last month or so. He's now in the mix to go as high as the Pistons at No. 8. The Hornets will give him very strong consideration at No. 9. He'll also get looks from the Pacers at No. 11, the Jazz at No. 12, the Suns at No. 13 and the Thunder at No. 14.
10. Stanley Johnson
Many scouts saw Johnson as a star coming into his freshman season. A number of them had him in their top 5 and we had him ranked No. 8 on Big Board 1.0. Once the season started, concerns began to mount about his athleticism and ability to finish at the rim. While teams love his NBA body and motor, does he have the skill set or explosive athletic ability to be a star? With just one day to go before the draft, some teams still have him ranked in the 5-to-10 range. Others have him 15-to-20. The Pistons, Hornets, Heat, Pacers, Jazz and Suns seem like the six best bets to take him.
11. Cameron Payne
Payne's rise on draft boards the past two months has finally stalled out and dipped just a bit. Payne didn't crack our Big Board until April when he debuted at No. 20. He moved up to No. 15 on Big Board 9.0 and then up to No. 11 on Big Board 10.0. His combination of quickness, length and the ability to score and pass the ball are clearly intriguing teams, but have they gotten too carried away? The Kings at No. 6, the Nuggets at No. 7 and the Hornets at No. 9 are possibilities. The Pacers at No. 11, the Suns at No. 13 and the Thunder at No. 14 are his more likely destinations. The Rockets at No. 18 and the Raptors at No. 20 are probably his floor.
12. Trey Lyles
Lyles didn't start the season ranked on the Big Board primarily because of concerns about playing time. Scouts figured that Kentucky's freshmen, sans Towns, would probably play limited roles this year. Thanks to Calipari's platoon system, all of them played bigger minutes than anyone expected and Lyles' stock has steadily risen all year to the point that a number of teams now have him in the top 10 -- despite the fact that he only played 20 minutes per game and was mostly out of position all year. That's a testament to Lyles' great size, skill set and basketball IQ.
His draft range is one of the trickiest to figure out. The Knicks, for example, are looking at him at No. 4. The Pistons like him at No. 8. But his sweet spot is probably the Pacers at No. 11, the Jazz at No. 12, the Celtics at No. 16 or, at the very least, the Bucks at No. 17. That's a pretty huge range for a guy this close to the draft, but he's been hard to nail down.
13. Myles Turner
Turner continues to be somewhat of an enigma. He began the year ranked No. 5 in Big Board 1.0 and there are still scouts who believe that's where he should be in Big Board 12.0. The problem is there are numerous others who think he belongs more in the late teens to early 20s. There are few prospects more polarizing. The scouts who love him point to his size, length, rim protection and shooting ability. The scouts who don't point out he struggled against top competition and isn't an elite athlete. Turner's ceiling is probably the Heat at No. 10. The Pacers at No. 11, the Jazz at No. 12 and the Suns at No. 13 are all potential landing spots as well.
14. Sam Dekker
Dekker is another polarizing prospect. Some teams love him and always have. Others aren't nearly as sold. He's clearly got NBA size, athleticism and toughness. The question centers on his jump shot. When it goes in, he looks like a lottery pick. When it doesn't, he looks like a late first-rounder. Dekker's stock has been consistent all year as well. He was No. 18 on Big Board 1.0 and ends at No. 16. His range start with the Pistons at No. 8 (he's actually in very strong consideration there if Hezonja is off the board), and includes the Heat, Pacers, Jazz, Suns, Hawks, Celtics and Bucks.
15. Frank Kaminsky
Kaminsky's rise on our draft board over the past few months has been interesting. Before the season, scouts were skeptical he could repeat a stellar performance in the NCAA tournament and he was initially ranked at No. 35. A strong senior season saw him quickly move up the board and he's been in the mid-teens ever since. Some teams see him even higher. They love his shooting ability and think it will translate. Others aren't sure that his game will survive the migration from Bo Ryan's Kaminsky-centered offense to a more complementary piece on a NBA team. The Heat at No. 10 are probably his ceiling. The Pacers at No. 11, the Jazz at No. 12 and the Suns at No. 13 are all interested. I think the Bucks at No. 17 are his floor.
16. Kelly Oubre
Oubre's draft stock is also all over the place depending on which team you talk to. We had him ranked No. 10 in July and after a stellar summer he moved all the way up to No. 5. His rocky start at Kansas, and his inconsistent production when he did start playing, all hurt his stock somewhat. He's long, athletic, can defend multiple positions and shoot, but will he have the focus to continue to improve on his game?
He's further away than a lot of the other players on the board and questions about his maturity continue to plague his draft stock. He has the same sort of window that Johnson does -- Pistons, Hornets, Heat, Pacers, Jazz and Suns. However, there are scenarios where he could slide to the Thunder at No. 14, Hawks at No. 15 or Celtics at No. 17. His draft stock (not his game) reminds me a lot of Josh Smith's a few years back. It's still very hard to peg.
17. Montrezl Harrell
After having one of the steadiest draft stocks of any player on our Big Board for two years, (he started Big Board 1.0 at 13 and was routinely in the teens as a sophomore and most of the season) Harrell finished the year a few spots lower. Teams got down on him early in the workout process, but a series of stellar workouts of late have pushed him back into the teens. The Suns at No. 13 are probably his high spot. The Celtics, Bucks, Wizards, Mavs and Blazers are other options. The Spurs are his floor.
18. Bobb Portis
Portis is a warrior with few holes in his game. He works so hard at everything that it's hard not to love him, even if he never excels at any one thing. His draft stock has remained extraordinarily steady. He debuted in Big Board 1.0 at 15 and ends at No. 18. Portis' draft range starts at the Pacers at No. 11, and includes the Jazz, Hawks and Bucks. I believe his floor is the Wizards at No. 19.
19. Jerian Grant
Grant's workouts have been strong, but he's still battling perceptions that his age limits his upside. Teams that are drafting to hit a home run will likely pass. But teams that love his experience, playmaking ability and toughness are fans. His range starts with the Thunder at No. 14. Other teams interested included the Hawks, Rockets, Raptors, Mavs and Bulls.
20. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Hollis-Jefferson started at No. 14 in Big Board 1.0 and has bounced between the mid-teens to early 20s all year. Teams want to love him and as we get closer to the draft it looks like they are finally starting to talk themselves back into him. His jump shot is clearly an issue, but with so much athleticism and the ability to defend multiple positions, he's getting teams to relook at him. The Thunder at No. 14, the Celtics at No. 16, the Bucks at No. 17, the Raptors at No. 20, the Mavs at No. 21 and the Blazers at No. 23 are all giving him strong looks.
21. Kevon Looney
Looney's another guy who was unranked on Big Board 1.0 but saw a quick rise in summer. By the end of summer he was up to No. 8 and by early December had cracked the top 5. However, his draft stock started to dive in March as teams began to worry about his motor, his athleticism and a hip injury he sustained before the season. Looney averaged nearly a double-double in the Pac-12 and is one of the most versatile and talented big men in in the draft, but it's clear from talking to multiple teams that he's struggling to find a home in the top 20. I think his draft window starts with the Wizards at No. 19 and includes the Raptors, Mavs, Blazers and Spurs.
22. Rashad Vaughn
Vaughn has been a high riser the past few months going from a bubble first-round prospect to someone in the mix for the late lottery. His shooting ability and overall scoring prowess at his age are the draws. He's starting as high as Indiana at No. 11. The Thunder, Suns, Hawks, Bucks, Raptors, Mavs and Bulls are also giving him looks.
23. Terry Rozier
Rozier has been terrific in workouts, but he's started to get traction in the mid-to-late first round. He's been on a roller coaster of a ride, rising into the late lottery after dominating in summer camps and then sliding after an up-and-down sophomore year at Louisville. Still teams see a lot of upside there. He could go as high as the Rockets at 18, then has the Mavs at No. 21, the Cavs at No. 24, the Lakers at No. 27 and the Celtics at No. 28 that will look at him.
24. R.J. Hunter
Hunter is another divisive prospect. Hunter began the year ranked No. 20, but after a strong showing in the summer, moved up to the lottery on some boards, including ours. His struggles from the 3-point line this year hurt his stock and teams worry he lacks the strength to guard in the NBA. But his shooting ability and high basketball IQ have others thinking he's the next Klay Thompson. His draft range includes the the Hawks at No. 15, the the Mavs at No. 21, the Bulls at No. 22 the Blazers at No. 23 and the Cavs at No. 24.
25. Justin Anderson
Anderson is a late bloomer who didn't really come on until his junior year, when he started shooting the basketball better from 3. There are teams that wonder if his shot is fluky, but in workouts he's been pretty good. His ceiling is probably Milwaukee at No. 17. The Bulls at No. 22, the Blazers at No. 23, the Cavs at No. 24 and the Grizzlies at No. 25 are other strong contenders to draft him.
26. Tyus Jones
Jones ranked No. 17 in Big Board 1.0, so landing at No. 26 is a bit of a slide for him despite the fact that he had a stellar freshman season and led Duke to a national championship. He has incredible basketball IQ, and sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft. But his lack of size and strength and elite athleticism all limit his ceiling. Houston is a likely place for him to land at No. 18. The Mavs at No. 21, the Bulls at No. 22, the Cavs at No. 24 and the Celtics at No. 28 are all potential teams who could draft him.
27. Delon Wright
Wright is still battling the perception that because he's a senior he lacks upside. There are several teams that want to be playoff contenders that seem to like him a lot. He's one of the most NBA-ready players in this draft and the Thunder, Rockets, Raptors, Mavs, Bulls and Cavs will all give him looks.
28. Jarrell Martin
Martin began the season ranked 26th and his stock has stayed very steady all year as a late first-round pick. More and more teams seem to be getting comfortable with the idea that he'll play power forward in the pros. If he can continue to prove that in workouts, he'll get interest from the Wizards at No. 19, the Blazers at No. 23, Spurs at No. 26, Celtics at No. 28 and Warriors at 30.
29. Chris McCullough
McCullough is widely regarded as a value pick in the late first round. Had he stayed in school, he could've been a lottery pick next year. He's athletic and versatile. He's just raw. The Blazers at No. 23, the Spurs at No. 26 and the Nets at No. 29 are good options. In fact, I continue to hear there is no way he falls past Brooklyn at No. 29.
30. Christian Wood
Wood has his detractors, but his scoring acumen, quickness and shooting ability make him an ideal off the bench scorer for the right team. He drew a lot of praise after the combine and shut down workouts early in the process -- possibly because of a promise to a team. The Spurs at No. 26, the Lakers at No. 27 and the Warriors at No. 30 could all end up taking him.
Next five in: Anthony Brown, SF, Sr., Stanford; Cedi Osman, G/F, Turkey; Dakari Johnson, C, So., Kentucky; Rakeem Christmas, C, Sr., Syracuse; Olivier Hanlan, G, Jr., Boston College
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