More on this...
The conversation regarding Davidson was an ideal example of how a team can be tortured by the process. Players and coaches of bubble teams spend that weekcompletely in the dark about their prospects, but it's like surgery -- without something to numb the pain or knock you out you'd be getting way toomuch information about what the doc is up to.
Our conversation about Davidson lasted maybe 10 minutes, but if this weren't compressed into a single day, it would be easy to imagine us going on forhours. That's how the Wildcats' failed ambition complicated the process. So many in the room knew this was a capable, dangerous team, but doesobliterating everyone in the low-rated Southern Conference offer evidence enough to prove it?
Davidson got enough support to be nominated to the ballot for our next round of voting. But they probably got into the conversation a little early. Asked torank the teams on that next ballot from 1-8, Mike Marot and I put Davidson at the bottom. After the Wildcats missed out in two rounds of voting, they fell offthe ballot and back into the at-large pool. They had to go through another round of voting just to be rescued back on the ballot, then made the field on thenext vote.
I did not participate in that particular election, because Ohio State also was on the ballot. That was OK. I had my say.
In addition to Davidson, the teams that drew the most interesting debates in the mock selection process included:
Florida. For the purpose of our exercise, the season "ended" early this week. We could only go on the games already played. The Gators thus finishedwith a weak schedule and few high-level victories -- only 1-4 against the Ratings Percentage Index top 50, with eight victories against teams rated 200-plus.When that breakdown is projected on the screen in the committee room, with all those low-rated wins congregated on the far right, it is not the picture of asure tournament team. There was no weight given to their status as defending champs; they were voted in on the last ballot.
Playing in the SEC won't do much to enhance the Gators' profile. Only two of the remaining eight games are against current top 50 opponents -- althoughone is against No. 1 Tennessee, which must visit Gainesville.
Purdue. Like the Gators, Purdue is a gifted young team that didn't get much done in preconference games and has played many of its Big Ten games againstlow-rated opponents. For our purposes, however, the Boilers stood as regular-season conference champs and also drew support because of a neutral-court win overLouisville. An early loss to Wofford was noted, but ultimately forgiven. Purdue got into the field about midway through the process.
If the Boilers want to stay there for real, it starts with being competitive in Saturday's road trip to Wisconsin. Five of their last eight games are onthe road.
Dayton. The Flyers waited a while, but eventually made our field. There was a lot of concern about the injuries that took forwards Chris Wright and CharlesLittle from the lineup and led the team to skid to four losses in five games. Little's return against Rhode Island, however, made them appear to be more ofa whole team.
Little delivered 16 points in UD's comeback win against Charlotte, which was too late for our consideration, but proves what he means to the team. TheFlyers are still waiting on Wright, however. In the meantime, they must handle winnable games such as Duquesne and Temple at home, La Salle, Fordham and St.Bonaventure on the road. They've already got the big wins they'll need, over Pitt and Louisville
:44 p.m. The initial ballot has just been tallied. The following 18 teams have been selected by at least seven committee members (in this case, twosportswriters).
Arizona
Connecticut
Drake
Duke
Georgetown
Indiana
Kansas
Memphis
Michigan State
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Tennessee
Texas
UCLA
Washington State
Wisconsin
Xavier
3:52 p.m. The following 49 teams received two or more votes on the at-large ballot or were nominated by a committee member:
Akron
Arizona State
Arkansas
BYU
Baylor
California
Charlotte
Clemson
Davidson
Dayton
Florida
George Mason
Gonzaga
Houston
Illinois State
Kansas State
Kent State
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Massachusetts
Miami (Florida)
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Purdue
Rhode Island
San Diego State
Seton Hall
South Alabama
Southern California
St. Joseph's
Syracuse
Texas A&M
UNLV
Virginia Commonwealth
Vanderbilt
Villanova
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
3:55 p.m. The following 10 teams were regular-season conference winners (pre-determined by NCAA staff for the mock exercise) and were added to the list:
Alabama State
Cal State Northridge
Lafayette
Lamar
Morgan State
Rider
Sacred Heart
UMBC
Utah State
Weber State
4:09 p.m. Right now, we're simulating Thursday morning, and committee members are ranking their top eight teams on the "consideration list."After the cumulative rankings are tallied, four teams will move over to join the other 18 on the "at-large list."
4:11 p.m. A discussion just popped up about Dayton and whether the injury to freshman Chris Wright could and should affect a tournament berth and/or seedingfor the Flyers. The answer was affirmative - "player availability" is taken into account and can include illness, injury, academic issues, etc.
4:25 p.m. The committee just put up what they call the "rank eight." The teams will be ordered from 1-8 and the top four move over to join the 18already on the "at-large list." The eight teams are:
Gonzaga
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Mississippi
Notre Dame
Purdue
Texas A&M
4:27 p.m. The point was just raised that Louisville beat Marquette twice. Folks around the room are sharing thoughts about the teams on the board and arehaving some put up side-by-side to compare strength of schedule, record against common opponents, wins versus the top 50, RPI, etc.
4:36 p.m. There have been good questions coming in about the automatic qualifiers - those teams that have earned access to the tournament based on winningtheir conference championships. The NCAA staff determined conference winners for 15 conferences at this point. More conference winners will be announcedthroughout the evening to provide a realistic experience. Here are the 15 at this point:
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big South - UNC Asheville
Colonial - UNC Wilmington
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
Metro Atlantic - Siena
Missouri Valley - Creighton
Northeast - Quinnipiac
OVC - Austin Peay
Patriot - Colgate
Southern - Appalachian State
Summit - IUPUI
Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock
West Coast - St. Mary's (California)
4:43 p.m. The top four teams determined from the "rank eight" list were:
Kansas State
Louisville
Mississippi
Texas A&M
These four have moved from the "consideration list" to the "at-large list." The other four are holding.
4:50 p.m. Contrary to popular belief, the committee doesn't look to get a certain number of teams from a conference in. After the automatic qualifiers,every team is treated as an independent.
5:01 p.m. There are 15 automatic qualifiers and 22 at-large teams right now. The second "rank eight" was just determined:
Gonzaga
Marquette
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rhode Island
Southern California
St. Joseph's
The merits of these teams are being debated right now.
5:12 p.m.
The following four teams were added to the at-large list:
Gonzaga
Marquette
Rhode Island
Southern California
Purdue and Notre Dame have gone through two cycles of rankings and didn't make it to the at-large field. Teams that go through two "rank eights"without making it to the "at-large list," go back to the "consideration list."
5:16 p.m. The conversation right now is about why Purdue hasn't been moved over to the "at-large list." Some of Purdue's detractors aresuggesting that the Big Ten doesn't stack up and it doesn't matter that the Boilermakers are a first-place team.
5:24 p.m. Four new teams were just announced as conference winners and will receive automatic bids to the tournament:
America East - UMBC
Big East - Pittsburgh
Big West - Pacific
Conference USA - Memphis
5:27 p.m. Since Memphis and Pittsburgh were on the original at-large list, that group has now been reduced from 26 to 24. There are 19 teams that have earnedaccess to the tournament through automatic qualifications. The committee is compiling its third "rank eight" list right now and four teams will thenbe moved to the "at-large list."
5:31 p.m. The third "rank eight" was just announced. The teams are:
Baylor
Clemson
Davidson
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Purdue
St. Joseph's
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame and Purdue were put back on after passing through the first two "rank eights."
5:37 p.m. The following four teams have been added to the at-large list:
Clemson
Notre Dame
St. Joseph's
Vanderbilt
Purdue passed through for a third time. There are 28 at-large teams now selected, and along with 19 automatic qualifiers, we have 47 teams in the field.
5:39 p.m. With 47 teams now in the field, the mock committee is taking its first stab at seeding. The top eight teams are now being ranked.
5:52 p.m. The top eight teams in the field have been identified:
Duke
Georgetown
Kansas
Memphis
North Carolina
Tennessee
UCLA
Wisconsin
The committee is now choosing the top four teams from that eight, essentially selecting its No. 1 seeds.
5:57 p.m. The overall No. 1 seed is Memphis. UCLA, Kansas and Duke are the other top seeds. This is not final by any means - there will be ample opportunitiesto reorder. It's also important to keep in mind that not all conference championship winners have been announced at this point.
6:00 p.m. It was just pointed out that UCLA still earned a top seed despite the fact that it has been reported that the Bruins were eliminated in the Pac-10tournament. The weight of conference tournaments is now being discussed.
6:11 p.m. In attempting to select the next eight teams to be considered for seeding, there were 17 teams put forward by different people in the room. Thoseselected were:
Georgetown
North Carolina
Stanford
Tennessee
Texas
Washington State
Wisconsin
Xavier
Four will be chosen as No. 2 seeds.
6:15 p.m. The 5-8 teams have been chosen. They will occupy No. 2 seeds at this point:
North Carolina
Tennessee
Georgetown
Stanford
6:16 p.m. We are putting seeding on hold and moving back to tournament selections. The committee will "rank eight" and then push four over to the"at-large list."
6:22 p.m. The qualifications of BYU, Utah State and Arkansas are being debated.
6:31 p.m. Syracuse is being debated. The point was raised that the Orange have won three in a row, two of them on the road. It was countered that Syracuse gotsmoked by West Virginia but that was followed by the fact that the Orange are the only team in the country not to play a team with an RPI above 200. Tennesseehas played one team with an RPI above 200 and no other programs have played fewer than three teams with RPIs above 200. Another point of contention - how manywins does Syracuse have against the field? The answer - two. The Orange have beaten St. Joseph's and Cornell, which won the Ivy League title.
This conversation will be particularly interesting during tomorrow's mock exercise, pending the outcome of tonight's game against Connecticut.
6:41 p.m. The next "rank eight" has been determined for the "at-large list." The teams are:
Arkansas
Baylor
Davidson
Dayton
Maryland
Oklahoma
Purdue
UNLV
Of note is a conversation that recently transpired. In debating whether or not Maryland or Syracuse should make the list of eight, results against commonopponents were shared.
6:59 p.m. Before dinner, I had a chance to chat with USA Today's Steve Wieberg, who shared his impressions of the mock selection process.
Listen to Steve Wieberg
7:31 p.m. We're back from dinner. We feasted on chicken, fish, salad and some of the best cheesy potatoes this side of Boise.
7:37 p.m. Four more teams were selected for the "at-large list":
Baylor
Dayton
Oklahoma
Purdue
Davidson was passed over twice and now goes back to the original "consideration list." There are now 32 at-large teams on the list.
7:44 p.m. With 19 automatic qualifiers and 32 teams on the at-large list, we have 51 teams fairly securely in the field (at-large bids are not yet absolute).The Sunday conference championships have not yet been determined.
With few spots remaining in the field, the mock committee members have just been advised by Tom O'Connor, the athletics director at George Mason and actualcommittee chair. He told them that this is when the committee really begins to crunch all of the numbers closely to make sure that the best teams end up in thefield. He reminded the sportswriters that the committee members never want to do wrong by the student-athletes.
7:57 p.m. The conversation has shifted to Davidson and some are bothered by the program's strength of schedule. Davidson is undefeated in its conferencebut has lost all four of its games against teams with an RPI from 1-50. The Wildcats are 3-1 against teams with RPIs between 51 and 100 - two of the wins areover Chattanooga. One of the issues is that Davidson plays in the Southern Conference, which currently has a conference RPI of 17.
To Davidson's credit, however, is a tough schedule that included non-league games against Duke and North Carolina. This statement was just made: "Itgoes back to who you play, where you play and how you did."
8:04 p.m. It was just announced that St. Joseph's won the Atlantic-10 conference championship. Since the Hawks were already in the at-large field, anotherspot has opened up. We now have 20 teams that have earned automatic bids and 31 on the at-large list. With 34 at-large bids available, that means we have threespots remaining. Of course, there are other conference finals that still must be played.
8:09 p.m. Votes are in for the next "rank eight." Six teams advanced to the group, but three programs tied for the final two spots: These sixprograms advanced:
Arizona State
Arkansas
Davidson
Maryland
Syracuse
UNLV
Head-to-head match-ups are now being discussed for the following three programs as the committee determines which two should move to the group of eight:
Florida
Massachusetts
Ohio State
8:10 p.m. Florida and Ohio State moved over to the "rank eight."
8:21 p.m. Four more teams were just added to the at-large list:
Arkansas
Davidson
Maryland
UNLV
There are 35 now in the at-large field, which has created an overflow of one. Spots should open as the conference tournament results come in.
8:26 p.m. We have moved back over to seeding. These eight teams are being considered for teams 9-12, better known as the No. 3 seeds:
Arizona
Connecticut
Drake
Pittsburgh
Texas
Washington State
Wisconsin
Xavier
8:35 p.m. The following four teams have earned No. 3 seeds:
Wisconsin
Texas
Xavier
Arizona
8:37 p.m. The following three teams won their conference championships:
Hampton - Mid-Eastern
Jackson State - Southwestern
Kent State - Mid-American
8:44 p.m. The following eight teams are now being considered for No. 4 seeds:
Butler
Connecticut
Drake
Kansas State
Louisville
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Washington State
8:47 p.m. The No. 4 seeds are:
Connecticut
Michigan State
Butler
Pittsburgh
Among the folks in the room, Butler received votes between 1 and 7 (from the group of eight), Michigan State was ranked between 1 and 8 and Kansas State wasranked between 2 and 8. Just goes to show you that there is disparity in opinions.
9:07 p.m. The next group of eight has been selected as the committee looks at the No. 5 seeds:
Drake
Indiana
Kansas State
Louisville
Southern California
St. Mary's (California)
Texas A&M
Washington
9:10 p.m. Here are your No. 5 seeds:
Kansas State
Washington State
Louisville
Drake
9:12 p.m. BYU has just been announced as the Mountain West winner. Later on, the committee will have to find a way to place the Cougars in a Thursday-Saturdaybracket due to the university's religious standards.
There are 23 teams that have now won conference tournaments.
9:15 p.m. Oregon has been announced as the Pac-10 tournament winner.
9:17 p.m. Taking a look back at the at-large field, there are 35 teams selected with 34 spots available. There are a few conference championships stilloutstanding with two finalists that have already been selected for the at-large fields.
ACC Championship: Duke and North Carolina
Big 12 Championship: Kansas and Texas A&M
Big Ten Championship: Indiana and Michigan State
After those games are decided, three more spots will open up. If Mississippi beats Florida in the SEC final, an additional spot will open up.
9:19 p.m. Three more conference tournament winners have been announced:
9:23 p.m. Nevada beat Utah State to win the Western Athletic Conference title. That makes 25 teams with automatic bids. Six to go.
9:29 p.m. At this point, we have 35 at-large teams and two open spots. The committee is sifting through the 30 teams remaining on the "considerationlist" and will move eight to rank for the final at-large spots.
9:32 p.m. Here are the eight teams:
Arizona State
Florida
George Mason
Massachusetts
North Carolina State
Ohio State
South Alabama
Syracuse
The top two will be in the tournament and a third could get in pending the SEC final result. The bottom five teams will not make the field.
9:38 p.m. An interesting tidbit - only seven of the 10 committee members are permitted to vote in this situation. SEC Commissioner Mike Slive wouldn't beallowed to vote because Florida is under consideration, George Mason AD Tom O'Connor wouldn't be allowed to vote because the Patriots are underconsideration and Ohio State AD Gene Smith can't weigh in because the Buckeyes are on the list. For this exercise, the sportswriters acting as thoseparticular committee members are not voting.
9:40 p.m. A sundae bar was just brought into the room. The NCAA Men's Basketball staff informed us that ice cream is consumed each night by the actualcommittee.
9:46 p.m. These three teams were just added to the at-large field:
Massachusetts
Florida
Because Florida and Mississippi are both in the at-large field, the SEC tournament final won't force anyone out of the field and one final spot opens up.Ohio State will fill the final at-large spot.
The field of 65 has been finalized.
9:50 p.m. For fans of Arizona State, George Mason, North Carolina State, South Alabama and Syracuse - your bubble has burst. Just a note - tonight'sSyracuse loss to Connecticut was not factored into this field.
9:55 p.m. We're now fully into the seeding. These eight teams are being considered for No. 6 seeds:
Arkansas
Gonzaga
Indiana
Marquette
Oklahoma
Southern California
St. Mary's (California)
Texas A&M
10:02 p.m. NCAA President Myles Brand just came in to greet the sportswriters.
10:04 p.m. Sam Houston State just won the Southland Conference Tournament.
10:06 p.m. Kansas won the Big 12 Championship over Texas A&M. Both teams were already in the field.
10:08 p.m. The No. 6 seeds have been determined:
Texas A&M
Indiana
Southern California
St. Mary's (California)
10:13 p.m. The following eight teams are being considered for the No. 7 seeds in the draw:
Arkansas
Baylor
Clemson
Gonzaga
Marquette
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
10:14 p.m. North Carolina beat Duke at the buzzer to win the ACC tournament final.
10:21 p.m. UNC Asheville won the Big South championship.
10:23 p.m. The following have been selected as No. 7 seeds:
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Marquette
Gonzaga
10:28 p.m. These teams are being considered for No. 8 seeds:
Arkansas
Baylor
Clemson
Massachusetts
Notre Dame
Purdue
Rhode Island
St. Joseph's
10:36 p.m. The following have been selected as No. 8 seeds:
Notre Dame
Arkansas
Purdue
St. Joseph's
Although the committee wouldn't do it this way, those that weren't selected as No. 8 seeds were automatically chosen as No. 9 seeds. This was done inthe interest of time for tonight's exercise. Generally, the committee would go back and rank eight teams to select the four No. 9 seeds. Tonight, the fourNo. 9 seeds are:
Rhode Island
Clemson
Baylor
Massachusetts
10:41 p.m. The sportswriters have headed next door to watch the completion of the game between Duke and North Carolina. The men's basketball staff isfilling out the bottom half of the seeded teams to speed up the process so we can get to bracketing.
10:53 p.m. The seed list has been completed.
The No. 10 seeds are:
Vanderbilt
Ohio State
UNLV
Maryland
The No. 11 seeds are:
Dayton
BYU
Kent State
Oregon
The No. 12 seeds are:
Florida
Davidson
Nevada
Sam Houston State
11:02 p.m. The Nos. 13-16 seeds have been selected as well, but it's important to share a couple of notes about the "fourth quadrant." TheMen's Basketball Committee forms a sub-committee - which meets for the first time on the Thursday before Selection Sunday - to address the fourth quadrant.
The overall committee must give final approval of the selections, but the sub-committee is used to expedite the seeding process. Some of the factors thesub-committee uses to seed the bottom 17 teams are RPI, conference RPI, strength-of-schedule, teams that win regular-season conference title, etc.
The one qualification for the opening-round game is that two historically black schools cannot play one another.
11:04 p.m.
The No. 13 seeds:
Creighton
Appalachian State
Cornell
UNC Asheville
The No. 14 seeds:
Siena
Hampton
UMBC
IUPUI
The No. 15 seeds:
Belmont
Austin Peay
Pacific
Northern Arizona
The No. 16 seeds:
UNC Wilmington
Arkansas-Little Rock
Colgate
Opening-round game teams:
Quinnipiac
Jackson State
11:25 p.m. At this point, Massachusetts and Vanderbilt have swapped seeds, with the Minutemen becoming a No. 10 seed and Vanderbilt grabbing a No. 9. TheCommodores beat Massachusetts in Nashville on January 5, 97-88, and the committee felt that warranted a higher seed for Vanderbilt.
11:26 p.m. In order to swap seeded teams, all but two eligible members of the committee must approve the move.
11:32 p.m. Some questions are being raised about whether or not Arizona and Texas deserve No. 3 seeds.
11:35 p.m. Washington State was moved from the 18th overall team to 16th, which is a move from No. 5 to No. 4. Connecticut was moved to 17th and Kansas Stateto 18th to accommodate Wazzou's move up.
11:38 p.m. A motion was made to swap Notre Dame and Gonzaga. Notre Dame moves from the 29th overall seed to No. 28, a change from a No. 8 seed to No. 7.
11:41 p.m. The committee is questioning whether Vanderbilt, at 18-4, should be seeded higher than No. 9.
11:44 p.m. Someone raised that Dayton's RPI is 13 and is seeded 41st overall. The committee member was reminder that Dayton's best player is injured.
11:46 p.m. Dayton and Mississippi are below .500 in their conferences, but having a conference record above .500 is not a pre-requisite for making the field.
11:47 p.m. Dayton and Ohio State just swapped seeds. Dayton becomes a No. 10 seed and the Buckeyes move to No. 11.
11:49 p.m. Sam Houston State and Creighton swapped spots. Sam Houston State moves down to a No. 13 seed while Creighton grabs a No. 12.
11:51 p.m. Cornell was question as a No. 13 seed, but a committee member who has seen the Big Red play sold the group when he vouched for how good they are.
12:00 a.m. Wednesday has become Thursday. We are about to begin bracketing the teams.
12:02 a.m. Conference affiliation has just been mentioned for the first time. Here is a snapshot breakdown:
ACC - 4
Big East - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac-10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big Ten - 5
Atlantic-10 - 5 (this is a bit unusual)
12:10 a.m. Regions are now being assigned. As the tournament's top seed, Memphis had the first chance to be assigned and the committee sent the Tigers tothe South Regional (Houston). The second No. 1 seed is UCLA, which was sent to the West Regional (Phoenix). Kansas was selected as the top seed in the MidwestRegional (Detroit) and Duke gets some Carolina love in the East Regional (Charlotte).
12:13 a.m. As we assign teams to region, keep in mind that teams from the same conference cannot meet before the regional final. If nine teams from aconference get it, the top three teams in the conference still can't play one another, but the other six can meet in the regional semifinals.
12:20 a.m. Stanford was selected as No. 2 seed in the South and with UCLA the top seed in the West, Arizona can only go the Midwest or East. This gets back tothe rule we mentioned a few moments ago - the top three teams from a conference cannot meet before the Final Four. Arizona was sent to the Midwest region.
12:28 a.m. I didn't realize this, but the committee keeps tabs on the cumulative seeds of the regions as they go along to try and ensure that they are evenin strength. For instance, Memphis is the top overall seed in the tournament and is headed south. Stanford is the No. 2 seed in that region is No. 8 overall.Pittsburgh is No. 13 overall and is third in the South regional while Butler, at No. 15 overall, is the No. 4 seed. If you add it all up (1+8+13+15), we get37. That's the weakest region right now - the other three are at 33.
Balance is the priority but the committee puts a lot of time into travel considerations for each team as well.
12:35 a.m. The travel considerations that come in to play for regional assignments are not exactly the same as those for the first and second round match-ups.As the top seed in the bracket, Memphis can play at any of eight first and second-round sites, and the committee will do its best to keep the team close tohome. In this exercise, Memphis will play its first game in Little Rock, Arkansas.
12:51 a.m. Assigning sites is a dizzying process.
12:53 a.m. We just found out that balance issues are only tracked through the first four seeds. After that, each team is counted as its seed (No. 5, 6, 7...),not its overall position in the field.
12:58 a.m. Arkansas was about to be placed as a No. 8 seed in Little Rock, but some weren't at ease with a team seeded that low playing in its home state.The Hogs were moved Omaha.
1:07 a.m. BYU earned a No. 11 seed, but the committee couldn't accommodate its need to play on a Thursday-Saturday schedule, so the Cougars were moved to aNo. 12 seed.
1:19 a.m. The committee has the purview to move teams up and down in their seeding to help the bracket make sense with regard to travel and location. A numberof teams have moved up and down a seed since we began bracketing.
1:26 a.m. The bracketing is done