The Major League Baseball Offseason Post

Originally Posted by Kiddin Like Jason

The Tigers are prepared to offer Johnny Damon $14 million over two years.
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They were talking on ESPN yesterday about Damon like he's some sort of offensive juggernaut on the free agent market. This will just send Austin Jackson down for another year or a half year if they stink like last season and deal Damon at the deadline.
 
Originally Posted by Kiddin Like Jason

So let's look ahead. And what better way to look ahead than to inform you that on Monday morning, the annual rite of spring that is the equipment truck leaving from Progressive Field, bound for Goodyear, Ariz., is taking place.
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i played on that field in october and its
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Off topic but anyone here making a trip out to NYC this season and would wanna grab some tickets to a game?  My boss told me the other day he's going to be giving away a lot of his season tickets so just throwing that out there.

Here's the insider request:
Best-case scenarios, from A's to Yanks

Tuesday, February 16, 2010 | Feedback | Print Entry

The Mariners won 61 games in 2008, and in 2009, their run production went down by 31 runs. But you probably could have walked into their camp last February and found somebody who could've mapped out a road to success for you. "We could be interesting ... if Felix Hernandez takes a big stride forward, and if we could get somebody who can lock down the ninth inning in the bullpen, and if Franklin Gutierrez's defense helps, and if we can get some power from somewhere ... "



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Getty Images

King Felix was a part of the Mariners' best-case scenario in 2009. Re-signed, he remains there in 2010.



Their best-case scenario played out. Hernandez matured into one of the sport's most dominant pitchers, David Aardsma became a shut-down closer, Gutierrez played center field better than anybody in baseball, and Russell Branyan mashed 31 homers. And the Mariners improved their win total by 24 games.

Of course, the worst-case scenario is possible, too.

Last year, the Mets were taken down by circumstances that nobody could've imagined in February: Just about all of their best players got hurt. And the Mets won 19 fewer games than they did in 2008.

But this week, the Mets won't think about last year, and the Mariners will still be fueled by the expectations built into them in 2009. The best thing about spring training is that it is filled with hope, with players who (for the most part) believe that the adjustments they intend to make will work and that the season ahead will bring them success. Many club executives think along the same lines, believing that if just a few things work out, there will be improvement.

The best-case scenarios for:

Los Angeles Angels. Jered Weaver takes over from John Lackey as an ace and has a strong season, leading a deep rotation ... Brandon Wood steps in at third base seamlessly ... Erick Aybar or Maicer Izturis steps into the leadoff spot ... The bullpen is stable.



Houston Astros. The three highest-paid guys on the team -- Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee -- all produce in a way that is commensurate with their salaries ... Tommy Manzella steps in and does a solid job at shortstop, while providing representative offense ... Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence repeat their success of last year ... Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom perform well at the back end of the bullpen.

Oakland Athletics. Ben Sheets pitches with All-Star caliber stuff ... The Oakland defense is as good as the Athletics expect that it will be ... Coco Crisp goes back to being the player he was with the Indians ... Some 25-homer thumper develops for the middle of the Oakland lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays. Travis Snider and Brett Wallace take strides toward being solid major league run-producers, giving the Blue Jays a nice lineup core ... Vernon Wells goes back to being the Vernon Wells of 2006 ... Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil make progress without getting pounded by the AL East monster ... The Jays get good trade return for the likes of Scott Downs.

Atlanta Braves. Tim Hudson bounces back fully and becomes a front-of-the-rotation starter again ... Troy Glaus stays healthy, plays in 140 games and hits 35 homers ... Chipper Jones plays in at least 135 games ... Jason Heyward forces his way onto the team early in the year and has an immediate impact. (The Braves' best-case scenario, however, does not include a shoulder injury for Jair Jurrjens -- who is to undergo an MRI because of shoulder soreness).

Milwaukee Brewers. Randy Wolf does exactly what the Brewers had hoped he would do when they gave him a pricey three-year deal ... Yovani Gallardo takes his next step toward becoming a star ... Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder continue to do what Braun and Fielder usually do ... Shortstop Alcides Escobar makes a seamless transition into the majors.

St. Louis Cardinals. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combine for at least 60 starts ... The whole Mark McGwire thing blows over quickly ... Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday are what everybody expects them to be ... Kyle Lohse and/or Brad Penny pitches like a solid No. 3 ... Ryan Franklin pitches in the way that he did in the first five months of last season.

Chicago Cubs. Carlos Zambrano, who appears to be a smaller version of Big Z, maintains his conditioning and strong performance all season ... Alfonso Soriano gives the Cubs some serious return for their investment in him this season ... Carlos Marmol consistently finds the strike zone ... Starlin Castro wins the shortstop job and thrives ... And, of course, any best-case scenario for the Cubs must include the possibility of ending the century-long drought.

Los Angeles Dodgers. Chad Billingsley makes 30 starts and pitches well ... Russell Martin rebounds from his 2009 struggles ... The bullpen continues to be dominant ... A fifth starter emerges, amid minimal rotation injuries ... Manny goes back to being pre-suspension Manny.

Arizona Diamondbacks. Brandon Webb returns to his Cy Young form, and with the strong starting rotation spurring Arizona, the D-backs get off to a strong start in April and May and rekindle local interest in the franchise ... Chris Young puts it together, once and for all ... Adam LaRoche thrives consistently ... Ian Kennedy learns from his New York experience and fares well in the NL.

San Francisco Giants. Madison Bumgarner regains some of the velocity he lost last season ... Barry Zito continues to pitch as effectively as he did in the second half of '09, and the San Francisco rotation is a powerhouse ... Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa hit ... Buster Posey gets stronger and develops so well that Bruce Bochy has to find a way to get him into the lineup in the last couple of months ... Freddy Sanchez recovers from his shoulder trouble enough to play in 130 games.

Cleveland Indians. Kerry Wood throws great in the first half of the season and fetches a nice return in a midseason trade ... Travis Hafner finds his long-lost swing ... Fausto Carmona re-discovers the strike zone ... Jake Westbrook builds velocity and pitches well enough in the first half of the year to re-establish some trade value.

Seattle Mariners. The last three spots in the Seattle rotation hold it together ... Milton Bradley holds it together, plays 135 games and hits like he's capable of hitting ... Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins get on base 550 times at the top of the Seattle lineup, becoming the most dominant 1-2 combination in baseball ... Somebody replaces at least some of the power that Branyan gave the Mariners last season.

Florida Marlins. Cameron Maybin hits the way he did in September ... Ricky Nolasco throws well without the kind of blip he had early last year ... Leo Nunez or somebody else gives Fredi Gonzalez a relatively reliable closer ... Dan Uggla provides his usual 30-homer, 90-RBI season.

New York Mets. The key guys -- Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Francisco Rodriguez -- all stay healthy, and Carlos Beltran comes back in May and stays on the field ... The Mets' regular catcher -- whoever that turns out to be -- has a surprisingly good season ... Luis Castillo replicates his play of 2009 ... And above all else, Oliver Perez goes back to being the lefty with dominant stuff.

Washington Nationals. Stephen Strasburg turns out to be as good as everybody expects him to be ... The Washington offense shows the kind of spark it had in August, when it averaged five runs a game ... Jason Marquis pitches like the stabilizer that Washington thought he would be when they invested a two-year deal in him ... John Lannan stays healthy and makes 30 starts.

Baltimore Orioles. Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman continue to mature as pitchers ... Mike Gonzalez provides stability for the Orioles' bullpen, in his first year as the Baltimore closer ... Garrett Atkins goes back to what he once was for the Rockies -- an impact, middle-of-the-order hitter ... Kevin Millwood throws 180-200 innings.

San Diego Padres. Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell both stay healthy and productive, putting the Padres in position to get maximum return for them in midseason trades ... Chris Young gets back on the mound and gets back to missing bats ... Everth Cabrera continues to make long strides to becoming a star ... Kyle Blanks benefits from his improved conditioning and powers 20-25 homers.

Philadelphia Phillies. Brad Lidge pitches more like the 2008 Lidge than the 2009 version ... Cole Hamels gets back to being a frontline major league pitcher, joining Roy Halladay to form a strong 1-2 for the Phillies ... Placido Polanco gives the Phillies the kind of play it planned for when it signed him to a three-year deal ... Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino continue to grow into stardom.

Pittsburgh Pirates. The prospects that the Pirates are cultivating begin to blossom -- Pedro Alvarez, first and foremost ... Garrett Jones has a full season like the incredible three months he had last year ... Ross Ohlendorf continues to develop into a solid major league starter ... Octavio Dotel racks up 35 saves.

Texas Rangers. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz pitch like the Rangers think they can pitch, giving the Rangers 300 innings of dominant stuff ... Scott Feldman does what he did in 2009, and provides an anchor for Texas ... The Rangers identify a regular catcher who serves the pitching staff well ... Josh Hamilton stays on the field and hits 35-40 homers, altering the Texas offense that sputtered last year.

Tampa Bay Rays. David Price becomes a solid No. 3, posting an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range ... Pat Burrell, now at a crossroads in his career, has the kind of season the Rays envisioned when they signed him ... Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, nearing free agency, both have big seasons ... Once and for all, B.J. Upton realizes the talent that others have long seen in him.

Boston Red Sox. David Ortiz hits the way he did in the second half of last season ... Daisuke Matsuzaka gets on the same page as the Boston staff, makes 30 starts and posts a sub-3.50 ERA ... John Lackey and Josh Beckett make 55-60 starts ... Marco Scutaro performs in a way that the past five or six Red Sox shortstops have not ... Jonathan Papelbon pitches all year with a good chip on his shoulder.

Cincinnati Reds. Homer Bailey follows up on the promising finish he had to his 2009 season, and the Reds' rotation becomes a major strength ... Jay Bruce stays healthy, and hits ... Brandon Phillips hits well all year and provides balance for the Cincinnati lineup ... Aroldis Chapman commands his fastball and matures quickly, and his talent forces him to the big leagues by year's end.

Colorado Rockies. Jeff Francis steps back into the rotation, in Jason Marquis' spot, and the Rockies' starters roll on ... Todd Helton continues to get on base 40 percent of the time, at age 36 ... Troy Tulowitzki avoids prolonged slumps ... Huston Street repeats what he did in 2009.

Kansas City Royals. Zack Greinke does it all over again ... The farm system makes progress toward regularly feeding high-end talent to the big leagues ... Alex Gordon finally puts it together ... Jose Guillen provides a surge of offense in the last year of his deal ... Gil Meche throws free and easy again. (Trey Hillman offered his working model for the K.C. lineup, writes Bob Dutton.

Detroit Tigers. Detroit's power rotation, led by Justin Verlander and helped by Jeremy Bonderman, is the backbone of the team ... Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore contend for the AL Rookie of the Year award ... Johnny Damon signs with Detroit, and while playing with a chip on his shoulder the whole season, he has a great year ... And Miguel Cabrera continues in his personal rehabilitation and becomes the Albert Pujols of the American League.

Minnesota Twins. Joe Mauer signs, for starters ... Francisco Liriano follows up on his winter ball success, grabs a spot in the rotation by the throat and misses bats all summer ... Joe Nathan recovers from his postseason blip and regains the velocity that scouts say he lost last season ... J.J. Hardy goes back to being a .280/25-homer shortstop.

Chicago White Sox. Alex Rios plays much better than he did in his first audition with the White Sox ... The Chicago rotation is as good as it looks like it can be ... Carlos Quentin plays in 145-150 games ... Paul Konerko remains productive, in the last year of his contract.

New York Yankees. The aging members of the roster -- Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte -- all hold up ... A.J. Burnett pitches to his potential ... Joba Chamberlain finds a way to repeat his delivery, and Phil Hughes develops his changeup ... Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson take advantage of the new Yankee Stadium dimensions the way that Johnny Damon did.


[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]


1. Stephen Strasburg took the mound at the Nationals' training complex Monday, Dave Sheinin writes.

2. Mark McGwire has started his work, writes Derrick Goold.

3. The Rays are planning to shrink their payroll next season. Which will happen naturally, anyway, because presumably, either one or all of a group of expensive veterans -- Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano and Pat Burrell -- will come off the books.

4. Joe Christensen addresses the question of whether Joe Mauer is worth the long-term risk for the Twins. Since 1980, only these guys have had contracts of eight or more years.

5. The Rays signed a reliever.

6. The Nationals signed Willy Taveras to a minor league deal. From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information: Taveras rates very high among those who look at baserunning metrics. Baseball Info Solutions has a stat -- Net Baserunning Gain -- that looks at different aspects of baserunning (stealing bases, picking up an extra base on hits, grounding into double plays, making outs on the bases, etc). It's noted in the 2010 Bill James Baseball Handbook that despite playing in only 102 games, Taveras was tied for the 19th-best rating in baseball in that statistic (plus-25 bases), and tied for eighth-best in the NL.

Along those lines, as you'd expect from a guy with his speed, he outperforms the league average in taking an extra base on base hits. Here's Taveras' career baserunning evaluation:
[table][tr][td]Covering the Bases[/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td]Taveras career[/td][td]Apx MLB Avg.[/td][/tr][tr][td]1st to 3rd on single[/td][td]44%[/td][td]27%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2nd to home on single[/td][td]74%[/td][td]58%[/td][/tr][tr][td]1st to home on double[/td][td]66%[/td][td]42-45%[/td][/tr][/table]
Our UZR/150 note of the day (found on FanGraphs.com, UZR/150 is a stat that evaluates defense). Of the 31 players to play at least 500-plus innings in center field last season, Taveras rated fourth-best by that stat:

Franklin Gutierrez 27.1
Rajai Davis 17.8
Brett Gardner 15.4
Willy Taveras: 14.1


7. As spring training starts, the Mets' catching job is the target for competition between Josh Thole and Omir Santos, writes Brian Costa.

8. Mark Mulder tells Susan Slusser that he hasn't retired, but he has stopped throwing. The bottom line is that after months of rehab work and tinkering with his mechanics, Mulder hasn't felt well enough over the past 18 months to commit to signing a minor league deal and starting the long journey -- which may have an uncertain ending -- that could take him back to the big leagues.

All of this talk reminded Billy Beane of the day that he drafted Mulder with his first-round pick: "Mark had everything you would want to see in an amateur; outstanding, polished performance, great athlete and good make up, with a chance for upside," Beane wrote in an e-mail. "He had a personality and presence that you only see in a few players at that level. The perfect type of pitcher to build a young team around."

9. Ari Fleischer continues to work on behalf of McGwire, writes Jim O'Donnell.

10. The Red Sox are not talking about a Victor Martinez contract, writes John Tomase.

11. The Rangers signed Endy Chavez.


[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]


Scott Sizemore is progressing well, writes Lynn Henning.


[h3]Best record in baseball...[/h3]


From Simon: With spring training opening this week, who's going to have the best record in baseball this season? Well, these are the most seasons with the best record in baseball since the two-league format began in 1901:

Yankees: 30
Athletics: 9
Cardinals: 7
Reds: 6
Cubs: 6
Giants: 6
Braves: 6
Indians: 6


If you're a believer that the Red Sox or Phillies are legit challengers to beat out the Yankees for the best record, consider this: The Red Sox have had or shared the best record in baseball only five times. The Phillies have NEVER had the best record in baseball.


[h3]Other stuff[/h3]


• Jim Leyland has a new challenge given the cigarette ban at Comerica Park.

• An umpire apologized to Leyland about missing a crucial call.

• Jim Tracy is pumped to manage the Rockies again, writes Troy Renck.

• A lot rests on Matt Wieters' shoulders, writes Dan Connolly.

Daniel Bard is ready for an expanded role, writes Amalie Benjamin.

• The Jays' camp is all about names and numbers, writes Mark Zwolinski.

• Dave Duncan got his first look at Brad Penny, writes Joe Strauss.

• The Cubs would settle for a ho-hum camp, Paul Sullivan writes. Gordon Wittenmyer runs through the Cubs' myths.

Felipe Lopez would be a good fit for the Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz. He would also be a great, great fit for the Mets, because he could contend for a starting job at second base and play all over the place, and because he probably would be inexpensive now.

• Omar Minaya won't talk about who will pitch the eighth inning for the Mets, writes Mike Puma.

• For the Phillies, bullpen questions remain, writes Andy Martino.

• With Curtis Granderson, the Yankees have an All-Star without pretension, writes Ben Shpigel.

Mike Jacobs has returned to the Mets looking for more, writes Adam Rubin.

• Sandy Koufax hung out with the Mets, writes Dave Waldstein.

• Joe Posnanski ventures some guesses as to who used steroids, and who didn't. It's an interesting exercise -- and to demonstrate how unclear this all is, I would say that a lot of folks in the sport would disagree with his guess on at least one player.

• Vanderbilt moved to No. 17.

And today will be better than yesterday.
 
Seems like every year I hear how Zambrano is slimmed down, then he comes in and pitches like an offensive lineman all summer. 

Win me 20 God damn games this year Z, no more excuses. 
 
Scott Boras tells MLB.com's Jason Beck that talks between the Tigers and Johnny Damon continue to "move forward" (Twitter link).
MLB.com's Thomas Harding notes (via Twitter) that key Rockies officials are watching Eric Gagne throw.
10:19am: The Indians have an offer out to Branyan, though it's not clear whether it is for a major league deal, according to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince. The club could platoon Branyan with Matt LaPorta, who has been cleared to resume baseball activities after undergoing surgeries on his left hip and left big toe.
 
Last year was Russell Branyan's first time playing in over 95 games since 2002
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Branyan signing here pretty much screams, "We traded C.C. Sabathia for a guy we don't feel comfortable playing every day."

That should go over well.
 
I wish the Yankees gave Wang another chance
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I love how SKA deleted my Yankee season thread last week
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, I'll be sure to have it remade tomorrow.
 
Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

bkmac...mine was deleted during the playoffs...you guys got away with murder
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I made the actual thread last week too, figuring it wasn't too early. Guess that wasn't the case
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. SKA salty, or doing his job?
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Free agent slugger Russell Branyan is down to the Indians and Rays, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The FOX writer says the Red Sox are "no longer a factor."
Yesterday we heard from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that free agent Johnny Damon played golf Monday with White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynskiand broadcaster Hawk Harrelson.  The Sox remain firm on their initialoffer, one that could be slightly above $4MM according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

Meanwhile, Lynn Henning of the Detroit Newssays the Tigers and Damon "appear to be moving, at less than fullspeed, toward a deal."  It seems that one of these two clubs will signDamon, but it's difficult to peg a frontrunner.
 
The Florida Marlins bolstered their bullpen Thursday by agreeing to acontract with former Washington Nationals closer Mike MacDougal. AgentRex Gary said MacDougal, a right-hander, will sign a minor-leaguecontract with an invitation to Marlins spring training.
The Dodgers have reached an agreement with Eric Gagne on a minor-league deal.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rey---002jos
Jose Reyes tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post that he wants to finish his career with the Mets. Reyes says he's not thinking about the $11MM option the Mets have for his services in 2011.
Victor Martinez tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com that he'd "obviously" like to stay in Boston. The catcher says the negotiations are now under the team's control.
Carlos Zambrano tells Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald that he would have vetoed a trade had the Cubs approached him about one this offseason.
 
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