Mike Schmitz:Trae Young's historic production and inescapable
Stephen Curry comparisons have gobbled up college basketball headlines this season. But as Young has dropped 40-piece after 40-piece, freshman
Deandre Ayton is quietly having one of the most productive and efficient seasons by a 7-footer in recent memory, continuing to build his long-standing case as the top prospect in the 2018 NBA draft.
Arizona's human cyborg is averaging 19.5 points and 10.7 rebounds in 32.2 minutes per game while shooting 62.9 percent from 2 and 34.5 percent from 3 -- all at 7-foot-½, 261 pounds, with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, the body of Zeus, the quickness of a welterweight fighter and ballerina-like balance.
To put Ayton's production into perspective, only three players younger than 20 in NCAA history have averaged at least 19 points and 10 rebounds with a true shooting percentage better than 65.0:
Blake Griffin,
David Robinson and Ayton. Despite Arizona's underachieving relative to expectations (20-6), the 19-year-old physical specimen from the Bahamas has been a steady force, posting at least double-digit points or rebounds in 24 of 26 games while showing tremendous durability.
Ayton's rare combination of productivity, NBA-ready physique and upside has him slated as the No. 2 prospect on our
current top 100. But why isn't Ayton the runaway No. 1 pick?
How Ayton has evolved
To start the conversation, it's important to have an idea of Ayton's path to Arizona and what he was like as a prospect before he ever played a game as a Wildcat. Jonathan, we've followed Ayton closely since he was a young teenager. What was the scouting report on Ayton back then, and how has it evolved through the years?
Jonathan Givony: Starting from a young age, Ayton has been one of the most well-scouted, fascinating and frustrating prospects to watch. The first notes we have on him in our internal scouting database are from the Pangos All-American Camp in June 2013, when he was just 14 years old, and we got a chance to spend some time with him in what was almost certainly the
first on-camera interview he ever conducted.
Back then, already telling us he was 6-foot-10 (but hoped he'd grow to 7-foot-4), Ayton described his position as "center," though that would be one of the last instances in which he would willingly portray himself as such. Later in his high school career, he became infatuated with the idea of being a power forward, which has continued to this day, despite the fact that modern basketball has gone in the complete opposite direction. The fact that he's listed as a "forward"
by Arizona and is starting and playing heavy minutes alongside another 7-footer in
Dusan Ristic is not an accident. It's entirely by his own design.
It's interesting to look back on the private scouting notes we have on Ayton from 2015, which feature quite a bit of (sometimes harsh) language that still rings true today. The first impression upon watching Ayton was pure astonishment: his body, his size, his incredible skill-level and rebounding prowess.
"Absolute freak. Can absolutely do everything," I wrote at the time.
"Lock for the No. 1 pick," I added, with quite a bit of hyperbole that you'll find only in private settings.
The evaluation also includes the flaws that are often still quite noticeable at Arizona.
"Never boxes out. Doesn't always run back on defense. Doesn't always protect the rim the way you might hope. Body language is awful at times. Took some awful shots. Other team scored whenever they wanted at the rim when he was underneath the basket. Not sure how good his instincts are defensively?"
Ayton is so talented that he's often held to a standard that we simply don't expect from other prospects. As impressive as he is, he often leaves you wanting something, mostly in terms of effort. He was barely coached and never held accountable for his shortcomings prior to college, and he developed quite a few bad habits. To Ayton's credit, he has answered a lot of questions scouts had about him at Arizona, as the change of scenery from high school to college has done him a world of good. Still, some question marks linger about how this will translate to the much more physically demanding setting of the NBA and its 82-game season.
Looking back on Ayton's numbers from high school and AAU, thanks to our friends at Krossover, we're seeing that relative to the 49 games of data we have from his junior and senior seasons, Ayton is blocking more shots (1.8 compared to 1.4), committing fewer turnovers (1.7 compared to 2.2), settling for fewer 3-pointers (9 percent of his overall field goal attempts compared to 22 percent) and shooting a higher percentage from both 2-point and 3-point range. While acknowledging that he isn't the hardest worker off the court, people at Arizona rave about his on-court competitiveness and overall personality. He seems very well-liked by teammates, too. Ayton is clearly making significant strides in the right direction.
Mike, how has that scouting report held up thus far?
Schmitz: Relative to where he was a couple years ago, he has made drastic change with his ability to handle his emotions on the court, and he is playing harder for longer under head coach Sean Miller, even if he hasn't developed into the defensive monster you would have hoped. These initial high school tendencies often resurface over time, but his progress has certainly been noticeable. From a tactical standpoint, let's dive into how Ayton has looked on both ends of the floor relative to his high school evaluation.
Defense
Ayton has been a mixed bag, providing major value as a perimeter defender but struggling to protect the rim and execute team concepts at times, which is part of the reason a usually stout Miller-led team ranks 106th in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.com. Some of this is a product of Ayton's playing most of his minutes at the 4 next to Ristic. However, Ayton has never been a prolific shot-blocker regardless of situation. He rejects, on average, 2.4 shots per 40 minutes in our career sample of 59 games, speaking to his limitations in the instincts department.
Ayton is also still working to find the right balance between pursuing shots at the rim and finding a body on the defensive glass. Too often he either stays put with his man and doesn't contest or goes after a shot late that he has no chance of blocking, leaving the backside open for a putback. This is a feel-based skill that teams hope will improve with more experience.
Aaron Holiday drives and misses the shot, but Thomas Welsh is there with a one-handed putback slam.
Although a physical specimen, Ayton has considerable room to improve as a post defender, as he too often gives up deep catches to more aggressive opponents.
On the bright side, Ayton has the tools to be an above-average defender and rim protector at the NBA level. As opposed to a prospect such as Luka Doncic, who is a bit behind the eight ball in terms of defending NBA wings in space, Ayton's 7-foot-5 wingspan, shredded frame and quick leaping ability are more than enough for him to add value as a defensive anchor.
While improved, he might never be the shot-blocker his tools suggest, but the fact that Ayton can sit down on the perimeter, check some 4s and switch onto guards is a major plus in the modern NBA.
Ayton still has his lapses tracking stretch bigs on the perimeter or keeping his head in line with the ball in pick-and roll, but he has made a world of progress with his defensive discipline during his time at Arizona.
In addition to his switch ability, his impact on the glass -- third in rebounding percentage among prospects ranked in our top 100 -- helps alleviate some of his shortcomings as a shot-blocker. Ayton has a strong base with big hands, long arms, impressive quickness and solid instincts. While he still has his lethargic moments as a rebounder and defender, Ayton's slight uptick in energy has been noticeable.
The type of defender Ayton turns into will largely depend on the situation and environment he's drafted into, but the fact that he can guard the perimeter on defense and space the floor some on offense gives his future team lineup flexibility to build around him.
Offense
He's most comfortable in the mid-post (30.4 percent of his offense) facing up and knocking down jumpers, but he can also rip through, spin to his left shoulder and finish with power or finesse. He's one of the best finishers in college basketball (98th percentile), as he's strong with the ball and quick off the floor, shooting a remarkable 72.1 percent at the rim.
His main intrigue revolves around his shooting potential, as he can pop to college 3 (10-for-29) or midrange spots. While he has touch and rotation, he has always shot it really flat and is a career 26 percent from 3 on 104 attempts, according to the DraftExpress database, so we'll see how his mechanics translate to the NBA line. Although greatly improved, Ayton still wants to operate on the perimeter a little bit more than his skill level suggests. While he's shooting fewer 3s, jump shots still take up 26.2 percent of his total attempts in the half court, with 27 of 77 attempts coming inside the arc but beyond 17 feet. He pops on 70.1 percent of his pick-and-roll possessions, and it remains to be seen if he'll develop into the dynamic roller that his tools suggest, given his internal yearning to live on the perimeter.
Where Ayton has made great progress is as a passer, and he should look even better in the NBA when playing the 5 and surrounded with shooting. Arizona has had its issues at the point guard spot, and playing next to Ristic hasn't exactly provided optimal spacing for Ayton. Although he currently has more turnovers (45) than assists (36), his feel has greatly improved and he's handling double-teams with impressive poise.
Ayton isn't the vertical spacer of
Mohamed Bamba or the straight-line driver of Marvin Bagley, but he's full of the physical talent and offensive skill the NBA is looking for in its future unicorn bigs.
Jonathan, who is Ayton's competition at the top, and how does he stack up with this draft's elite?
Givony: For some time now, internally, we've been talking about the race for the No. 1 pick as a 1A and 1B situation between Doncic and Ayton. The gap isn't wide, and I think much of it will come down to who gets the pick, what they already have on their roster, their personal philosophies about how each prospect fits into the modern game, the team's culture and playing style, and their own comfort level with drafting a European player.
Ayton has done a great job of addressing the criticism people had about him coming into the season, easing many of the concerns with his sheer production and talent level. It's really tough to study his freakish tools and talent and not come away thinking that he has as good a shot of going No. 1 as anyone in this class. This could very well be what happens when he comes in for private workouts a week or two before the draft.
The main thing that has held us back from making that move on our own board thus far has been how well Doncic has played in his own right for the past year and a half. That race is far from over, though. Can Doncic take Real Madrid to the Euroleague Final Four? Can they win another ACB championship? He has been battling a hip injury all year, and I have to imagine that he has been fighting fatigue playing as many games as he does and carrying such a heavy load on the court (as well as off it with the amount of attention he generates). With Real Madrid's schedule, will he be able to come to the U.S. for medical examinations and a short, in-person visit before the draft? That matters when it comes to using an asset such as the No. 1 pick.
In terms of the other guys in this draft, I think Ayton has done a nice job of separating himself from the pack.
Bagley has proven to have much bigger flaws defensively and positionally, and his on-court awareness and all-around feel haven't improved as much as hoped as the season moves on. Bamba is a freak but brings some of the same concerns Ayton does about his intensity level, without being quite as polished. Jaren Jackson is also playing out of position and has been wildly inconsistent in terms of productivity, and there are real question marks about how much more of a featured offensive player he can become down the road. Michael Porter Jr. has fallen by the wayside due to his injury and had plenty of concerns prior to that. Trae Young is shooting 34 percent from beyond the arc and averaging seven turnovers per game (with a 1.3 A/TO ratio) in the Big 12. Oklahoma has lost seven of its past nine games.
Best NBA comps?
Schmitz: While comparisons can often be lazy or superficial, it's important to have a good feel for how prospects compare to current NBA players at the same age. Development isn't linear, and every prospect has a different path, but this gives us a good baseline for what Ayton's physical profile and production mean and how they could predict his future output.
First, here's a look at some of Ayton's closest physical comparisons:
Player Age Height Weight Wingspan
Deandre Ayton 19.3 7-0.5 261 7-5
Greg Oden 19.4 7-0 257 7-4.25
Steven Adams 19.9 7-0 255 7-4.5
Joel Embiid 19.0 7-0 240 7-5
Ayton most resembles Greg Oden at the same age from a tools standpoint. While Oden's NBA career obviously ended early due to a series of injuries, it's easy to forget what a physical marvel he truly was. Ayton also compares quite favorably to Steven Adams, who has quickly become one of the most physically imposing big men in the NBA. He has similar height and length to bigs such as DeMarcus Cousins (292 pounds) and Andre Drummond (279 pounds) but isn't nearly as thick as those two at the same age.
The natural comparison for Ayton is Joel Embiid. The Sixers star is a bit of a rare case, however, as he was late to basketball and didn't develop into the graceful behemoth he is today until after college. Ayton weighs about 21 pounds more than Embiid at the same age, but they have similar size and length. Given the injury history of big men with this type of size and strength, NBA teams will want to take an extra hard look at Ayton's medicals, even though he has been durable this season. Ayton will be one of the most physically dominant centers in the league from the moment he steps on the floor, which you can't say of any other prospect in the draft.
From a productivity standpoint, Ayton is more or less in the same ballpark as other top one-and-done era centers: Oden, Embiid, Cousins and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Ayton's statistical comps
Player PTS/40 REB/40 AST/40 BLK/40 PER TS%
Deandre Ayton 24.1 13.2 1.7 2.2 31.7 65.2
Joel Embiid 19.4 14 2.3 4.5 28.7 66.9
DeMarcus Cousins 27.4 17.2 1.7 3.1 37.2 59.1
Karl-Anthony Towns 19.5 12.7 2.1 4.2 31.9 63.7
Greg Oden 21.7 13.2 0.9 4.5 32.4 63.4
The numbers say Ayton is the second-best scorer of the bunch at that stage, and he has certainly shown the most in-game stretch ability. With that said, some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. Towns played a fairly restricted role on a team that went 38-1. Embiid battled injuries and was at an early stage of development with the Jayhawks. Cousins' numbers, on the other hand, are a reminder of what a beast he was at the collegiate level and why it's no surprise that he's one of the most dominant bigs in the NBA.
These stats do support a question that some high-ranking executives have posed about Ayton when projecting him to the next level: What will he hang his hat on every night? While Ayton can do a lot, you wonder what boxes he checks at an elite level every night. Will he develop into a consistent stretch big? Is he a guy you dump it down to and run offense through? Will he be a rebounding monster like Andre Drummond? Will he be a defensive anchor? This is part of what makes Ayton such a fascinating prospect. At age 19, he has produced almost at a historic level, yet he leaves you wanting even more at times.
It's going to come down to how comfortable a front office is drafting a European perimeter player No. 1 overall and how confident they are in Ayton's ability to build upon his strong season with Arizona, rather than reverting back to old habits. While you could argue Doncic is the best pure basketball player in the draft and has proven himself the most from a productivity standpoint, it's hard to imagine an NBA team passing on Ayton's freakish physical tools and budding skill set after getting him alone in a workout setting. It's fair to wonder where exactly Ayton impacts the game on a nightly basis, and Doncic's extremely high floor makes him one of the safer European prospects we've seen in recent memory. But I think if the draft were today, there's a good chance that Ayton would be the top pick.
Jonathan, from your perspective, what does Ayton need to show the rest of the year to solidify that top spot?
Givony: Even when Arizona has struggled as a team, Ayton's productivity has been there all season, as he's ranked No. 2 in player efficiency rating (PER) among all prospects in our top-100, but it's hard not to get the feeling that he can reach another gear over the final five or six weeks of the season. To put himself in the best situation to be the No. 1 pick, scouts will want to see Ayton take the Wildcats on his back and lead them on a deep NCAA tournament run, which is what the expectations were for this team coming into the season.
To do that, Arizona will have to make huge strides defensively, first and foremost. The Wildcats rank 114th in that category by ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), which is almost unfathomable for a Sean Miller-led team. Miller has never had a team with a sub-100 defense in his head-coaching career, dating to 2005. Ayton isn't the only reason for that, but he's certainly a culprit.
This directly ties into something that NBA teams will be monitoring closely, which is the historically low rate of steals Ayton generates on a per-40-minute basis (plus an unimpressive block rate). To be clear, blocks and steals don't equal good defense, but there is definitely some correlation between players who don't defend and players who don't make plays defensively. Unfortunately, at the moment, the only thing we can reliably track in colleges games is how often players get in the passing lanes or come up with rejections (as well as how good their teams are defensively overall).
By this measure, Ayton is going to get dinged in most analytics models. In stats-only projections from ESPN's Kevin Pelton, Ayton ranks No. 11 in this draft class -- the lowest of any legitimate No. 1 pick contender. On the other hand, Doncic is "making analytics models explode," in the words of one NBA executive we spoke with, in terms of the historic production he's posting, and that makes him the runaway favorite for the No. 1 pick according to most predictive models.
We've been able to identify only 13 players from the past 28 years who were top-10 draft picks after posting rates of 0.7 steals and 2.3 blocks per 40 or less in their draft season or season prior, as Ayton is thus far. Looking at the names of those players, it isn't a very inspiring list.
Top-10 picks with low steal and block rates
Player Team STL/40 BLK/40 Draft Pick
Lauri Markkanen 2017 Arizona 0 .5 0.7 2017 No. 7
Nik Stauskas 2014 Michigan 0.6 0.3 2014 No. 8
Julius Randle 2014 Kentucky 0.6 1 2014 No. 7
Ike Diogu 2004 Arizona St. 0.5 1.9 2005 No. 9
Andrew Bogut 2004 Utah 0.6 1.8 2005 No. 1
Bryant Reeves 1995 Oklahoma St. 0.6 1.9 1995 No. 6
Eric Montross 1994 North Carolina 0.6 2.2 1994 No. 9
Steve Smith 1991 Michigan St. 0.6 0.2 1991 No. 5
Tom Hammonds 1989 Georgia Tech 0.5 0.9 1989 No. 9
Olden Polynice 1986 Virginia 0.4 1.3 1987 No. 8
Detlef Schrempf 1985 Washington 0.6 0.7 1985 No. 8
Russell Cross 1982 Purdue 0.6 1.6 1983 No. 6
Steve Stipanovich 1983 Missouri 0.7 1.8 1983 No. 2
If we expand the list to all first-round picks, we find among a sea of defensive liabilities and busts the name of Kyle Kuzma (0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks per 40 in 2016), but it's still certainly not a group anyone wants to be part of.
Ayton doesn't need to go out and generate a huge number of steals and blocks by gambling in the passing lanes and rotating wildly into the lane. Some of these numbers have to do with playing out of position at the power forward spot, though he posted similar numbers in these categories prior to college as well. Still, he would be well-served to put on his best face defensively as the season comes to a close in order to not be labeled a liability on that end of the floor.
Arizona has given up 81 points on average in its six losses this season. If Ayton can be part of the solution to the problems defensively, as opposed to a major culprit, as he has been at times, it will go a long way in convincing NBA teams that the concerns here are overblown.
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