If there is anything to be learned from writing rookie reports weekly these past few years, it's how suddenly their seasons can change, simply because there are so many variables at play each day of the season.
This class has had its share of success stories and surprises already, but obviously not every player has started the season as hoped. Here's a look at two top-10 picks in particular who have tripped coming out of the gate, some other guys who are still hoping for a better run, and a few late surprises.
[h3]Two top-10 guys who could turn it around[/h3]
Fredette
Jimmer Fredette, Kings
When I watched him play for the first time last season, I wrote that he would have to drastically change the way he plays in the NBA. I felt that part of the reason he was able to make so many amazing and deep shots was that he had the ultimate green light from his coaches to launch whenever he wanted. Also, taking that many shots allowed him to make minor adjustments from shot to shot to maintain a good percentage.
In the NBA, however, it just didn't seem likely that he would get those kind of opportunities. The size, length, quickness and intelligence of NBA defenders was obviously going to make things tougher for him, too.
But then I convinced myself that he could change and become a smart and steady floor leader, who took only easy and open looks from the perimeter while playing off of
Tyreke Evans and
DeMarcus Cousins. Unfortunately, thus far, the first Jimmer has shown up and the results have been exactly as I feared.
[h4]ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS[/h4]
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
| | |
| 1 | Kyrie Irving | |
| 2 | Ricky Rubio | |
| 3 | Kahwi Leonard | |
| 4 | Jon Leuer | |
| 5 | MarShon Brooks | |
| 6 | Kemba Walker | |
| 7 | Isaiah Thomas | |
| 8 | Chandler Parsons | |
| 9 | Enes Kanter | |
| 10 | Nikola Vucevic | |
[h2][/h2]
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Stock[/th]
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Click here for the complete rankings »
He's mostly been a chucker and rarely a driver, and it's hard to shoot even decently in this league playing that way. He's taking 3.9 3-pointers per game, nothing like the 8-plus he took in college, so the low number plus the poor selection has kept his percentages down. He was shooting 30.6 percent on 3s heading into last week's action, with a 6-for-28 stretch in January.
He has shot the ball well on 3s in the past six games, and I have no doubt that he's a great shooter with better shot selection. But the pairing with Tyreke Evans, who is also guilty of many bad shots (though I'm seeing slight improvement from him) has been disastrous, as the Kings are a bottom-five offensive team and dead last in assist rate.
Fredette isn't getting to the rim really, either, taking just one shot there per game and making 57 percent of those. Contrast that with scintillating rookie
Kyrie Irving, who gets 5.2 shots at the rim per game and is making over 63 percent of them.
Fredette is getting eaten up on defense, as well, on and off the ball. The Kings are the fourth-worst defensive team in the league and Fredette has been their worst defender.
Do I still think Fredette can grow into a solid player? Yes, but he needs to start that growth process now or he'll lose his rotation spot to fellow rookie
Isaiah Thomas, who has played much better in fewer minutes. It would help if Fredette found a way to contribute in other areas, as he's averaging just 2 assists and 1.2 rebounds a game.
Vesely
Jan Vesely, Wizards
It's an interesting juxtaposition, Vesely and
Ricky Rubio. Rubio had the star power at a younger age and Vesely was by far the more productive pro in the European leagues. Common sense suggested that Vesely would be the more NBA-ready player because of that recent success in Europe.
But as Rubio has bolted out of the blocks and regained most his mojo from two years ago, Vesely has mostly been a foul machine who looks out of place in this league at times. Known for his athleticism and hustle, Vesely is playing just 15 minutes per game on a team dying for help at the forward spot (that number is growing under a new coach and with
Andray Blatche out due to injury).
Out of every NBA player who has appeared in at least 10 games for an average of at least 12 minutes per game, Vesely has committed more fouls per 48 minutes than everyone but two guys,
Larry Sanders and Jamal Magloire. But even Sanders, who is also struggling, is averaging a blocked shot per game. Vesely has blocked at least one shot in only three games. He has a PER below 8 and clearly is not comfortable in Washington now.
However, out of all the guys who might be labeled as disappointments, Vesely is the guy I most expect to
not be in that category by season's end. For starters, he'll learn that NBA players can't use their hands on defense nearly as often as they do in Europe. Once he gets this, better things are in store for him. He has great instincts on defense and could show enough while Blatche is out to become the full-time starter in Washington, once he learns the NBA game.
[h3]Other rooks hoping for brighter days ahead[/h3]
Faried
Kenneth Faried, Nuggets
Due to Denver's terrific depth everywhere, Faried is mostly stuck on the bench except during blowouts. Even then it's hard for him to get in the game because coach George Karl has so many quality players who deserve playing time.
But one thing is clear: Faried is a special kind of energy guy. From dunks to spectacular blocks and everything in between, he uses his athleticism and huge motor every minute he's on the court. He'd be in the rotation for a lot of teams.
Morris
Marcus Morris, Rockets
His trip down to the D-League was a huge success until an ankle injury sidelined him. Now he's faced with recovering from that and fighting his way up Houston's crowded depth chart.
With the terrific play of
Chandler Parsons, a newly motivated
Chase Budinger, a coach who likes to finish games with
Courtney Lee at small forward, and a recovering
Patrick Patterson as the team's backup power forward, Morris could be stuck with no role in Houston or a starring role in the D-League.
Johnson
JaJuan Johnson
He's still not getting any real action for Boston, having appeared in just eight games in 2012 and only one for more than six minutes (a blowout win).
Jimmy Butler, Bulls
Butler plays with poise, rarely rushing anything, and his length is definitely a weapon on defense. But he hasn't had many opportunities to play extended minutes for Chicago until recently.
Higgins
Cory Higgins, Bobcats
Sometimes we see undrafted players playing well and wonder why they weren't drafted. Thus far, we're seeing Higgins play a fair amount, but he hasn't been able to show why he should have been drafted, or why he's even playing (other than because of injury).
He's played nine or more minutes in the Bobcats' last 11 games, averaging over 12 minutes per contest. He's obviously not the main reason the team is 1-10 in that span, but he's not helping matters by shooting less than 38 percent from the field and 15.4 percent from 3, with about as many turnovers as assists. Also, he did not have a single steal in 13 of 14 games. He's not any kind of special athlete but he's long for a guard, so it's fair to expect more from him on that end of the floor.
Harper
Justin Harper, Magic
Harper is barely registering a blip in Orlando, appearing briefly in three games in January.
Vernon Macklin, Pistons
Even with the Pistons losing by wide margins often, Macklin is receiving sparse playing time.
Travis Leslie, Clippers
Leslie has played in only three games in January.
Hobson
Darington Hobson, Bucks
With the Bucks' depth at small forward, Hobson doesn't have a spot in any rotation. He has not appeared in a game in two weeks and could be released if they decide to add a big man to replace the injured
Andrew Bogut.
Jordan Hamilton, Nuggets
Another rookie paying his dues for being on such a loaded team, Hamilton finally got his first game action of the season in a rout over the Kings.
[h3]Some late surprises[/h3]
Allen
Lavoy Allen, 76ers
Since Philly has been fattening up on bad teams and
Spencer Hawes has been out a while, coach Doug Collins has wisely given valuable playing time early in games to Allen, who is making the most of that time.
The Sixers' second-round pick has looked to be mostly a catch-and-shoot guy off pick-and-pops, similar to how Hawes began his career. Allen is hitting 10-15 footers, but he's also taken just five free throws this season -- another eerie similarity to Hawes, and not a good one.
On one particular play versus Detroit with 13 seconds on the shot clock, he received a pass on the short left wing while being completely unguarded. The lane to the rim was wide open, but Allen decided to launch a jumper that missed. I would have liked him to attack the rim, where either a dunk or free throws would have been the result. He's playing like the older version of
Antonio McDyess at just 22 years of age.
Ayon
Gustavo Ayon, Hornets
Ayon has impressive stats, and he's also impressive to watch in an old-school kind of way. He's smart and patient with the ball on the post or the perimeter, searching for the best basketball play but always ready to strike when the time is right.
He also has a nice shot and excellent touch in the paint. I love that he does not always utilize only the pick-and-pop or pick-and-roll, but rather reads the action before deciding, as he should. He's showing solid rebounding chops, as well.
Goudelock
Andrew Goudelock, Lakers
Goudelock has suddenly become a nice spark plug for the surging Lakers, taking advantage of
Steve Blake's injury. He has scored in double figures in three of their last four games and hit 8 of 14 3-point shots while committing just one turnover in each of those games.
Cory Joseph, Spurs
When I see Joseph, I think of a puppy, full of speed and energy, creating chaos for his team and sometimes the opponent. But I also see a nice jumper off the left-hand dribble and a nose for the ball on defense. His upside is considerable to be sure; yet another smart second-round pick for the Spurs.
Moore
E'Twaun Moore, Celtics
Had I written this just prior to Boston's game with Orlando, or to be more specific, just before halftime of that game, it would not have been a pretty picture for Moore. He was just 2-for-14 from 3 going into that game. Then he hit a 3-pointer going into halftime in what looked like a blowout loss. And in the second half, Moore hit three more triples with no misses, including the shot that put Boston ahead for the first time after making up such a huge deficit. The win added spirit to that team, and Moore was a big part of it.
He had been a below-average player in spot minutes prior to that game and he wasn't sharp in Boston's win over the Pacers after that breakout game. But I suspect that knowing he's capable of having a huge shooting game will give coach Doc Rivers the incentive to keep trotting him out to see if he catches fire.
and he doesn't turn the ball over. Defensively, he's maybe adequate, but that will go out the door once Dwight does.
