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14 teams, standard, and only 3 bench spots. I'd ask for a new league
Def needs 3 WR too.2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD VOL. ZERO RB IS STILL KING
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by stick,
- Start date
14 teams, standard, and only 3 bench spots. I'd ask for a new league
Def needs 3 WR too.
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Yeah I'd switch to 3 WRs and 5 bench spots. Although it'd be fine just adding the bench spots and staying with 2 WRs.
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Shawn Siegele's Top 15 Zero RB Candidates for 2017: #s 15-11
http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/155052/
http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/155052/
Top 15 Zero RB Candidates for 2017: No. 15 to No. 11
August 17, 2017 | By Shawn Siegele
In 2015, the Zero RB target list included Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin. Martin went off the board at RB17 but finished as RB4. Freeman was selected outside the first 100 picks at RB29 but finished as the overall RB1. The 2016 list featured Melvin Gordon, my top breakout candidate and highest-owned player. Who are we targeting in 2017?
If you’ve tuned in for the 2017 Zero RB Candidate rankings, you’re probably a Zero RB drafter or a regular drafter looking for late round running back options. After all, early RB drafters need a few late RBs as well.
Despite much of the rhetoric surrounding the 2016 RB renaissance, trends remain encouraging for Zero RB drafters. We know such an approach can help you build uber-teams to take down Grand Prizes, but first, you have to make the playoffs. That’s become easier than ever. Over the last two fantasy regular seasons, six RBs averaged 20-plus points, and half of them were drafted at pick 50 or later. Twenty-four RBs averaged at least 15 points, and 11 of them were drafted at pick 50 or later, in many cases much later.
It’s my desire to see everyone draft with an approach they enjoy and believe gives them the best chance to win. If you’re intrigued but questioning, Josh Hermsmeyer, Ben Gretch, RotoDoc, and others have written excellent pieces exploring the ramifications of 2016.
In this week’s version of the rankings, I’ll split them into No. 15 to 11, No. 10 to 6, and No. 5 to 1. That will let me provide more detail.1 Then I’ll update as a unit next week.
NO. 15 CHARLES SIMS
Everyone has their favorite RB in Tampa Bay. Dirk Koetter is a Doug Martin guy. He’s sticking with him after an abysmal 421-yard season ended in suspension. That leaves us with at least three potential early-season fill-ins.
Mike Braude likes Jeremy McNichols and labeled him one of 4 Fliers to Win Your Fantasy Playoffs. Kevin Cole called him the best RB bargain in the draft based on his RB Success Model.
Meanwhile, Eric Moody is a Jacquizz Rodgers supporter, and this also seems to fit with Koetter’s preferences. Familiar with him from their time in Atlanta, the Bucs head coach relied on Quizz late in the season. Rodgers responded with two 100-yard rushing performances, the first two of his career. Unfortunately, even with his solid finish to the 2016 season, Rodgers is a poor size/speed specimen with unimpressive NFL results.
When I asked for Zero RB suggestions on Twitter, I was surprised at the support for Charles Sims. The 2015 breakout runner vanished in 2016, sapped by nagging injuries that left him a shell of the player who caught 51 passes and gained 1,000 yards from scrimmage the previous year. Sims is back and poised to reprise his passing-down role. Tentatively listed as a co-starter2 during Martin’s suspension, Sims could help you bridge to a breakout from one of your higher-profile selections. He should also retain more value once Martin returns. After all, Sims finished as RB16 in 2015 when Martin was RB4. That’s optimistic with Rodgers and McNichols also fighting for carries, but it illustrates the sneaky value of the passing-down back.
NO. 14 ROBERT TURBIN
Frank Gore’s longevity is a testament to talent and character. He’s crested 1,200 yards from scrimmage in 11 consecutive seasons, and those betting against him have consistently lost. But they’ve also lost small, because, for all the superlatives Gore deserves, he hasn’t been a true fantasy dynamo for a long time. From age-23 to age-27, Gore caught 40-plus passes in every season and averaged over 50. He hasn’t done that since, nor has he managed a double-digit TD season.3 Only once has he bested 4.3 yards per carry, and he hasn’t eclipsed 3.9 in two seasons with the Colts.
And while yards per carry is a notoriously unreliable stat, Gore was also awful after contact last season, an area where Turbin easily outperformed him.
All of these are minor complaints, but those nagging demerits ushered in a different approach from the Colts, at least superficially. They selected draft sleeper Marlon Mack in the fourth round4 and commenced a relentless public relations campaign in favor of a little-used backup.
Turbin came out of college with elite athleticism and impressive production but never got a true opportunity in Seattle’s crowded backfield. He’s most known as Marshawn Lynch’s breather back in 2014, the guy who angered fantasy owners everywhere by blocking Christine Michael.
The best Turbin piece I’ve read this year is by one of my favorite authors. Ben Gretch has everything you want to know on this year’s Zero RB Super Sleeper.
NO. 13 REX BURKHEAD
We’ve been writing about Burkhead since the site’s infancy. At the combine, he ran a 4.73 forty but jumped 39.5 inches in the vertical and zig zagged to a 6.85 three-cone. This is the Fantasy Douche himself on April 9, 2013.
Last night on Twitter I was discussing Rex Burkhead’s awful 40 time and saying that primarily I’m interested in a running back’s ability to generate power or momentum with their lower body, and Burkhead’s terrible 40 time didn’t really scare me given his outstanding performance on other combine measures. If Burkhead has the lower body athleticism to post excellent tests in things like vertical leap, broad jump, 3 cone and shuttle, I’m fine with burning a flier pick on him even if I won’t ever get to see him score an 80 yard touchdown. Actually it’s premature to say I would burn a flier pick on him as I really shouldn’t speculate on that until I see what (if any) NFL team he ends up on.
I quote that partly for nostalgia and partly because Burkhead is now a Patriot. This is a team that 1) appears to want him, and 2) gives him the potential to finish as the overall RB1 if he wins the goal line job through some combination of performance and injury.
Quite a bit of projection still exists for the former Bengals backup. After only 132 opportunities in four years, he exploded to 119 yards and two TDs on 27 carries in Week 17. We don’t know exactly what the Patriots have in Burkhead, but we can posit that his skill set and physical profile make him the best fit for Bill Belichick’s stylistic objectives.
“LeGarrette was a good first/second down type of guy, I think Burkhead has ability on all four downs. I think Gillislee has a little more versatility, Dion Lewis can play on all three downs. James White, as we saw later in the year last year, can play more on all three downs although we used him more as a third down player. Hopefully, we’ll be a little bit less of a Blount on first down/second and short and Lewis on second down, White on third down, that type of [offense].”
NO. 12 D’ONTA FOREMAN
Few respectable analysts want to jump on the rookie redraft bandwagon in 2017. Josh Hermsmeyer has persuasively argued that you should even sell them aggressively in dynasty. But Brian Malone recently opined that fantasy leagues are about winning the playoffs, and rookies may help you hoist the trophy.
Rookies were underrepresented atop the top regular season standings, especially considering RB shelf life. But across the board, rookies showed up in the fantasy playoffs, increasing their presence by 40 to 55 percent in each category. This means that if you’re judging the value of a rookie RB based on expected total points, you’re systematically undervaluing their contribution to your odds of a fantasy football championship.
A couple of years ago, Mike Braude argued for David Johnson as your Zero RB star, and a couple of months later Johnson did exactly what Malone has suggested. He exploded down the stretch and helped fantasy owners to a raft of titles. I’m partial to rookie RBs because they’ve been very good to me.5 If you’re seeking players with a wide range of outcomes – which is my basic approach for the RBs on my Zero RB squads – rookies often make excellent targets.
After weighing 233 at the combine and posting a 4.45 forty at his pro day, Foreman was our top RB prospect according to both the RB Prospect Lab and the RB Success Model (0.53). Drafted to form a brutal 1-2 punch with Lamar Miller, his offseason momentum was temporarily derailed by a drug and firearm arrest. Camp reports suggest he’s put that behind him and looks like the back who averaged 184 rushing yards per game at Texas.
Anthony Amico presented Foreman as the perfect arbitrage play on Derrick Henry’s sticker-shock-inducing price. Good reasons exist for at least part of the gap. Foreman doesn’t have the year’s experience, and the Houston offense is a year or two away from providing the goal line opportunities that might come Henry’s way this season. But we do have circumstantial evidence to suggest Foreman is a similar or even superior talent. Miller may also provide less of a hurdle than what Henry finds in DeMarco Murray.
NO. 11 CHRIS THOMPSON
Thompson is your prototypical, RB3 band-aid. I don’t like these players in the top-150 picks, in part because you have options like Thompson later. The Washington third-down back finished as RB28 a year ago and sports a median Sim Score that also ranks 28th. His RB58 ADP would then seem like a crazy bargain, but his status fairly reflects the lack of upside.6
– Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 3.2 4.1 5
Median 6.2 7.6 9.3
High 7.1 8.7 10.3
Thompson is one of Matt Wispe’s three Zero RB options to target late.
We’ve seen some movement on these players over the last couple of weeks, but everyone in this ADP range remains inexpensive in all formats.
Planning to target breakout WRs but not sure which profiles offer the best value? I look at the 99 WR Breakouts of the Last 16 Years.
August 17, 2017 | By Shawn Siegele
In 2015, the Zero RB target list included Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin. Martin went off the board at RB17 but finished as RB4. Freeman was selected outside the first 100 picks at RB29 but finished as the overall RB1. The 2016 list featured Melvin Gordon, my top breakout candidate and highest-owned player. Who are we targeting in 2017?
If you’ve tuned in for the 2017 Zero RB Candidate rankings, you’re probably a Zero RB drafter or a regular drafter looking for late round running back options. After all, early RB drafters need a few late RBs as well.
Despite much of the rhetoric surrounding the 2016 RB renaissance, trends remain encouraging for Zero RB drafters. We know such an approach can help you build uber-teams to take down Grand Prizes, but first, you have to make the playoffs. That’s become easier than ever. Over the last two fantasy regular seasons, six RBs averaged 20-plus points, and half of them were drafted at pick 50 or later. Twenty-four RBs averaged at least 15 points, and 11 of them were drafted at pick 50 or later, in many cases much later.
It’s my desire to see everyone draft with an approach they enjoy and believe gives them the best chance to win. If you’re intrigued but questioning, Josh Hermsmeyer, Ben Gretch, RotoDoc, and others have written excellent pieces exploring the ramifications of 2016.
- Fantasy Owners Are Drawing the Wrong Conclusions from 2016
- Is It Time to Scrap Zero RB?
- The Conditions Have Never Been Better for Zero RB
- Win the Flex – Win the Title: A RB Overreaction
- The Trends That Changed the Game Are About to Change It Again
In this week’s version of the rankings, I’ll split them into No. 15 to 11, No. 10 to 6, and No. 5 to 1. That will let me provide more detail.1 Then I’ll update as a unit next week.
NO. 15 CHARLES SIMS
Everyone has their favorite RB in Tampa Bay. Dirk Koetter is a Doug Martin guy. He’s sticking with him after an abysmal 421-yard season ended in suspension. That leaves us with at least three potential early-season fill-ins.
Mike Braude likes Jeremy McNichols and labeled him one of 4 Fliers to Win Your Fantasy Playoffs. Kevin Cole called him the best RB bargain in the draft based on his RB Success Model.
Meanwhile, Eric Moody is a Jacquizz Rodgers supporter, and this also seems to fit with Koetter’s preferences. Familiar with him from their time in Atlanta, the Bucs head coach relied on Quizz late in the season. Rodgers responded with two 100-yard rushing performances, the first two of his career. Unfortunately, even with his solid finish to the 2016 season, Rodgers is a poor size/speed specimen with unimpressive NFL results.
When I asked for Zero RB suggestions on Twitter, I was surprised at the support for Charles Sims. The 2015 breakout runner vanished in 2016, sapped by nagging injuries that left him a shell of the player who caught 51 passes and gained 1,000 yards from scrimmage the previous year. Sims is back and poised to reprise his passing-down role. Tentatively listed as a co-starter2 during Martin’s suspension, Sims could help you bridge to a breakout from one of your higher-profile selections. He should also retain more value once Martin returns. After all, Sims finished as RB16 in 2015 when Martin was RB4. That’s optimistic with Rodgers and McNichols also fighting for carries, but it illustrates the sneaky value of the passing-down back.
NO. 14 ROBERT TURBIN
Frank Gore’s longevity is a testament to talent and character. He’s crested 1,200 yards from scrimmage in 11 consecutive seasons, and those betting against him have consistently lost. But they’ve also lost small, because, for all the superlatives Gore deserves, he hasn’t been a true fantasy dynamo for a long time. From age-23 to age-27, Gore caught 40-plus passes in every season and averaged over 50. He hasn’t done that since, nor has he managed a double-digit TD season.3 Only once has he bested 4.3 yards per carry, and he hasn’t eclipsed 3.9 in two seasons with the Colts.
And while yards per carry is a notoriously unreliable stat, Gore was also awful after contact last season, an area where Turbin easily outperformed him.
All of these are minor complaints, but those nagging demerits ushered in a different approach from the Colts, at least superficially. They selected draft sleeper Marlon Mack in the fourth round4 and commenced a relentless public relations campaign in favor of a little-used backup.
Turbin came out of college with elite athleticism and impressive production but never got a true opportunity in Seattle’s crowded backfield. He’s most known as Marshawn Lynch’s breather back in 2014, the guy who angered fantasy owners everywhere by blocking Christine Michael.
The best Turbin piece I’ve read this year is by one of my favorite authors. Ben Gretch has everything you want to know on this year’s Zero RB Super Sleeper.
NO. 13 REX BURKHEAD
We’ve been writing about Burkhead since the site’s infancy. At the combine, he ran a 4.73 forty but jumped 39.5 inches in the vertical and zig zagged to a 6.85 three-cone. This is the Fantasy Douche himself on April 9, 2013.
Last night on Twitter I was discussing Rex Burkhead’s awful 40 time and saying that primarily I’m interested in a running back’s ability to generate power or momentum with their lower body, and Burkhead’s terrible 40 time didn’t really scare me given his outstanding performance on other combine measures. If Burkhead has the lower body athleticism to post excellent tests in things like vertical leap, broad jump, 3 cone and shuttle, I’m fine with burning a flier pick on him even if I won’t ever get to see him score an 80 yard touchdown. Actually it’s premature to say I would burn a flier pick on him as I really shouldn’t speculate on that until I see what (if any) NFL team he ends up on.
I quote that partly for nostalgia and partly because Burkhead is now a Patriot. This is a team that 1) appears to want him, and 2) gives him the potential to finish as the overall RB1 if he wins the goal line job through some combination of performance and injury.
Quite a bit of projection still exists for the former Bengals backup. After only 132 opportunities in four years, he exploded to 119 yards and two TDs on 27 carries in Week 17. We don’t know exactly what the Patriots have in Burkhead, but we can posit that his skill set and physical profile make him the best fit for Bill Belichick’s stylistic objectives.
“LeGarrette was a good first/second down type of guy, I think Burkhead has ability on all four downs. I think Gillislee has a little more versatility, Dion Lewis can play on all three downs. James White, as we saw later in the year last year, can play more on all three downs although we used him more as a third down player. Hopefully, we’ll be a little bit less of a Blount on first down/second and short and Lewis on second down, White on third down, that type of [offense].”
NO. 12 D’ONTA FOREMAN
Few respectable analysts want to jump on the rookie redraft bandwagon in 2017. Josh Hermsmeyer has persuasively argued that you should even sell them aggressively in dynasty. But Brian Malone recently opined that fantasy leagues are about winning the playoffs, and rookies may help you hoist the trophy.
Rookies were underrepresented atop the top regular season standings, especially considering RB shelf life. But across the board, rookies showed up in the fantasy playoffs, increasing their presence by 40 to 55 percent in each category. This means that if you’re judging the value of a rookie RB based on expected total points, you’re systematically undervaluing their contribution to your odds of a fantasy football championship.
A couple of years ago, Mike Braude argued for David Johnson as your Zero RB star, and a couple of months later Johnson did exactly what Malone has suggested. He exploded down the stretch and helped fantasy owners to a raft of titles. I’m partial to rookie RBs because they’ve been very good to me.5 If you’re seeking players with a wide range of outcomes – which is my basic approach for the RBs on my Zero RB squads – rookies often make excellent targets.
After weighing 233 at the combine and posting a 4.45 forty at his pro day, Foreman was our top RB prospect according to both the RB Prospect Lab and the RB Success Model (0.53). Drafted to form a brutal 1-2 punch with Lamar Miller, his offseason momentum was temporarily derailed by a drug and firearm arrest. Camp reports suggest he’s put that behind him and looks like the back who averaged 184 rushing yards per game at Texas.
Anthony Amico presented Foreman as the perfect arbitrage play on Derrick Henry’s sticker-shock-inducing price. Good reasons exist for at least part of the gap. Foreman doesn’t have the year’s experience, and the Houston offense is a year or two away from providing the goal line opportunities that might come Henry’s way this season. But we do have circumstantial evidence to suggest Foreman is a similar or even superior talent. Miller may also provide less of a hurdle than what Henry finds in DeMarco Murray.
NO. 11 CHRIS THOMPSON
Thompson is your prototypical, RB3 band-aid. I don’t like these players in the top-150 picks, in part because you have options like Thompson later. The Washington third-down back finished as RB28 a year ago and sports a median Sim Score that also ranks 28th. His RB58 ADP would then seem like a crazy bargain, but his status fairly reflects the lack of upside.6
– Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 3.2 4.1 5
Median 6.2 7.6 9.3
High 7.1 8.7 10.3
Thompson is one of Matt Wispe’s three Zero RB options to target late.
We’ve seen some movement on these players over the last couple of weeks, but everyone in this ADP range remains inexpensive in all formats.
Planning to target breakout WRs but not sure which profiles offer the best value? I look at the 99 WR Breakouts of the Last 16 Years.
Last edited:
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Is anyone else having a hard time reading these articles while using incognito mode? For the last couple days I havent been able to read any of them for whatever reason
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Thoughts on Crowell this year?
Hopefully that improved o-line will help his production. He had a handful of terrible games last season
Hopefully that improved o-line will help his production. He had a handful of terrible games last season
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I just tried it and it worked for me. I'll copy/paste the article and add it to my post above.
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I get that Cleveland's line has improved, but I dont see him being that great this year just due to how bad that offense is going to be in general and how much they are probably going to be throwing due to being down. I liked him in the 40-50s but now that he has moved into the 20s-early 30's I think he is being drafted at his absolutely ceiling not considering his downside risk.
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Shawn Siegele's Top 15 Zero RB Candidates for 2017: #s 15-11
http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/155052/
Top 15 Zero RB Candidates for 2017: No. 15 to No. 11
August 17, 2017 | By Shawn Siegele
In 2015, the Zero RB target list included Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin. Martin went off the board at RB17 but finished as RB4. Freeman was selected outside the first 100 picks at RB29 but finished as the overall RB1. The 2016 list featured Melvin Gordon, my top breakout candidate and highest-owned player. Who are we targeting in 2017?
If you’ve tuned in for the 2017 Zero RB Candidate rankings, you’re probably a Zero RB drafter or a regular drafter looking for late round running back options. After all, early RB drafters need a few late RBs as well.
Despite much of the rhetoric surrounding the 2016 RB renaissance, trends remain encouraging for Zero RB drafters. We know such an approach can help you build uber-teams to take down Grand Prizes, but first, you have to make the playoffs. That’s become easier than ever. Over the last two fantasy regular seasons, six RBs averaged 20-plus points, and half of them were drafted at pick 50 or later. Twenty-four RBs averaged at least 15 points, and 11 of them were drafted at pick 50 or later, in many cases much later.
It’s my desire to see everyone draft with an approach they enjoy and believe gives them the best chance to win. If you’re intrigued but questioning, Josh Hermsmeyer, Ben Gretch, RotoDoc, and others have written excellent pieces exploring the ramifications of 2016.
And if you’re not a Zero RB enthusiast, that’s perfectly fine as well. Fantasy football should be fun. Draft your favorite players. I do.
- Fantasy Owners Are Drawing the Wrong Conclusions from 2016
- Is It Time to Scrap Zero RB?
- The Conditions Have Never Been Better for Zero RB
- Win the Flex – Win the Title: A RB Overreaction
- The Trends That Changed the Game Are About to Change It Again
In this week’s version of the rankings, I’ll split them into No. 15 to 11, No. 10 to 6, and No. 5 to 1. That will let me provide more detail.1 Then I’ll update as a unit next week.
NO. 15 CHARLES SIMS
Everyone has their favorite RB in Tampa Bay. Dirk Koetter is a Doug Martin guy. He’s sticking with him after an abysmal 421-yard season ended in suspension. That leaves us with at least three potential early-season fill-ins.
Mike Braude likes Jeremy McNichols and labeled him one of 4 Fliers to Win Your Fantasy Playoffs. Kevin Cole called him the best RB bargain in the draft based on his RB Success Model.
Meanwhile, Eric Moody is a Jacquizz Rodgers supporter, and this also seems to fit with Koetter’s preferences. Familiar with him from their time in Atlanta, the Bucs head coach relied on Quizz late in the season. Rodgers responded with two 100-yard rushing performances, the first two of his career. Unfortunately, even with his solid finish to the 2016 season, Rodgers is a poor size/speed specimen with unimpressive NFL results.
When I asked for Zero RB suggestions on Twitter, I was surprised at the support for Charles Sims. The 2015 breakout runner vanished in 2016, sapped by nagging injuries that left him a shell of the player who caught 51 passes and gained 1,000 yards from scrimmage the previous year. Sims is back and poised to reprise his passing-down role. Tentatively listed as a co-starter2 during Martin’s suspension, Sims could help you bridge to a breakout from one of your higher-profile selections. He should also retain more value once Martin returns. After all, Sims finished as RB16 in 2015 when Martin was RB4. That’s optimistic with Rodgers and McNichols also fighting for carries, but it illustrates the sneaky value of the passing-down back.
NO. 14 ROBERT TURBIN
Frank Gore’s longevity is a testament to talent and character. He’s crested 1,200 yards from scrimmage in 11 consecutive seasons, and those betting against him have consistently lost. But they’ve also lost small, because, for all the superlatives Gore deserves, he hasn’t been a true fantasy dynamo for a long time. From age-23 to age-27, Gore caught 40-plus passes in every season and averaged over 50. He hasn’t done that since, nor has he managed a double-digit TD season.3 Only once has he bested 4.3 yards per carry, and he hasn’t eclipsed 3.9 in two seasons with the Colts.
And while yards per carry is a notoriously unreliable stat, Gore was also awful after contact last season, an area where Turbin easily outperformed him.
All of these are minor complaints, but those nagging demerits ushered in a different approach from the Colts, at least superficially. They selected draft sleeper Marlon Mack in the fourth round4 and commenced a relentless public relations campaign in favor of a little-used backup.
Turbin came out of college with elite athleticism and impressive production but never got a true opportunity in Seattle’s crowded backfield. He’s most known as Marshawn Lynch’s breather back in 2014, the guy who angered fantasy owners everywhere by blocking Christine Michael.
The best Turbin piece I’ve read this year is by one of my favorite authors. Ben Gretch has everything you want to know on this year’s Zero RB Super Sleeper.
NO. 13 REX BURKHEAD
We’ve been writing about Burkhead since the site’s infancy. At the combine, he ran a 4.73 forty but jumped 39.5 inches in the vertical and zig zagged to a 6.85 three-cone. This is the Fantasy Douche himself on April 9, 2013.
Last night on Twitter I was discussing Rex Burkhead’s awful 40 time and saying that primarily I’m interested in a running back’s ability to generate power or momentum with their lower body, and Burkhead’s terrible 40 time didn’t really scare me given his outstanding performance on other combine measures. If Burkhead has the lower body athleticism to post excellent tests in things like vertical leap, broad jump, 3 cone and shuttle, I’m fine with burning a flier pick on him even if I won’t ever get to see him score an 80 yard touchdown. Actually it’s premature to say I would burn a flier pick on him as I really shouldn’t speculate on that until I see what (if any) NFL team he ends up on.
I quote that partly for nostalgia and partly because Burkhead is now a Patriot. This is a team that 1) appears to want him, and 2) gives him the potential to finish as the overall RB1 if he wins the goal line job through some combination of performance and injury.
Quite a bit of projection still exists for the former Bengals backup. After only 132 opportunities in four years, he exploded to 119 yards and two TDs on 27 carries in Week 17. We don’t know exactly what the Patriots have in Burkhead, but we can posit that his skill set and physical profile make him the best fit for Bill Belichick’s stylistic objectives.
“LeGarrette was a good first/second down type of guy, I think Burkhead has ability on all four downs. I think Gillislee has a little more versatility, Dion Lewis can play on all three downs. James White, as we saw later in the year last year, can play more on all three downs although we used him more as a third down player. Hopefully, we’ll be a little bit less of a Blount on first down/second and short and Lewis on second down, White on third down, that type of [offense].”
NO. 12 D’ONTA FOREMAN
Few respectable analysts want to jump on the rookie redraft bandwagon in 2017. Josh Hermsmeyer has persuasively argued that you should even sell them aggressively in dynasty. But Brian Malone recently opined that fantasy leagues are about winning the playoffs, and rookies may help you hoist the trophy.
Rookies were underrepresented atop the top regular season standings, especially considering RB shelf life. But across the board, rookies showed up in the fantasy playoffs, increasing their presence by 40 to 55 percent in each category. This means that if you’re judging the value of a rookie RB based on expected total points, you’re systematically undervaluing their contribution to your odds of a fantasy football championship.
A couple of years ago, Mike Braude argued for David Johnson as your Zero RB star, and a couple of months later Johnson did exactly what Malone has suggested. He exploded down the stretch and helped fantasy owners to a raft of titles. I’m partial to rookie RBs because they’ve been very good to me.5 If you’re seeking players with a wide range of outcomes – which is my basic approach for the RBs on my Zero RB squads – rookies often make excellent targets.
After weighing 233 at the combine and posting a 4.45 forty at his pro day, Foreman was our top RB prospect according to both the RB Prospect Lab and the RB Success Model (0.53). Drafted to form a brutal 1-2 punch with Lamar Miller, his offseason momentum was temporarily derailed by a drug and firearm arrest. Camp reports suggest he’s put that behind him and looks like the back who averaged 184 rushing yards per game at Texas.
Anthony Amico presented Foreman as the perfect arbitrage play on Derrick Henry’s sticker-shock-inducing price. Good reasons exist for at least part of the gap. Foreman doesn’t have the year’s experience, and the Houston offense is a year or two away from providing the goal line opportunities that might come Henry’s way this season. But we do have circumstantial evidence to suggest Foreman is a similar or even superior talent. Miller may also provide less of a hurdle than what Henry finds in DeMarco Murray.
NO. 11 CHRIS THOMPSON
Thompson is your prototypical, RB3 band-aid. I don’t like these players in the top-150 picks, in part because you have options like Thompson later. The Washington third-down back finished as RB28 a year ago and sports a median Sim Score that also ranks 28th. His RB58 ADP would then seem like a crazy bargain, but his status fairly reflects the lack of upside.6
– Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 3.2 4.1 5
Median 6.2 7.6 9.3
High 7.1 8.7 10.3
Thompson is one of Matt Wispe’s three Zero RB options to target late.
We’ve seen some movement on these players over the last couple of weeks, but everyone in this ADP range remains inexpensive in all formats.
Planning to target breakout WRs but not sure which profiles offer the best value? I look at the 99 WR Breakouts of the Last 16 Years.
Not gonna lie, seeing Charles Sims as the first name listed made me want to stop reading right away. Dude is a bum and might even end up getting cut because McNichols is just as good, if not better as a pass catcher and is a much better runner. Sims is absolutely useless as a runner. He's our 4th best RB by far. Do not bother drafting him.
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Who is going to start during Martin's suspension?
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Jacquizz Rodgers
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Quizz for sure unless McNichols looks amazing the rest of preseason. Sims is literally incapable of doing anything other than catching the ball. They should never give him carries....ever. The only time he ever makes any type of gains on his runs is when the defense is completely caught off guard because they're convinced we're passing it when he's back there.
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- Mar 30, 2004
What has Charles Sims done to you?
I'm by no means an advocate of drafting him. But what are you basing him being a bum off of? So far in the three seasons that he's been in the league he's been a rookie, pretty good, and injured, respectively. And why are you placing so much trust in Jeremy McNichols - a 5th round rookie who hasn't played an NFL down yet (although he was good in college)?
Sims' stats:
2014 - rookie
2015 - 107 carries, 529 yards (4.9ypc). 51 catches, 561 yards, 4 TDs. Good for ~11.5ppg and the #16 overall PPR RB. Pretty good.
2016 - missed 9 games due to injury
Even if you watched all of his games thus far in his career, you would've saw his rookie season, when he barely played and where almost every player struggles. His second season when he was pretty good. And his last season when he did well in the first few weeks but was then injured. True, he didn't do much once he came back. But was that due to his lack of skill or rust or still not playing at 100%?
You may be right, he could be a bum and 2016 may have been a fluke. But being able to grab a guy in the last rounds of your draft who had been a very useable RB2 just two years ago is pretty appealing. Late round, pass-catching backs in timeshares, on good offenses are the exact type of guys you target on Zero RB squads. You have to take in to account the wide range of possibilities that volatile players like Sims can produce.
Scenarios that can help Sims:
Doug Martin is already suspended for three games, and he hasn't been the most durable (or skilled) player when he's been on the field. Another suspension, another injury, or just plain poor play are all in the cards for him this year. Either of the three would create more work (and value) for Sims.
Jacquizz Rodgers is a career backup/journeyman. In his two best games last year he needed 30 and 26 carries to produce 17 PPR points. He's not too good.
Jeremy McNichols is an unproven 5th round rookie who hasn't played a snap in the NFL yet. Will he thrive as a change of pace/pass-catching back instead of Sims? Or will he struggle, as most rookies do?
Those are alot of things that could potentially work in Sims' favor. You could do worse in the last couple of rounds of your draft.
2014 - rookie
2015 - 107 carries, 529 yards (4.9ypc). 51 catches, 561 yards, 4 TDs. Good for ~11.5ppg and the #16 overall PPR RB. Pretty good.
2016 - missed 9 games due to injury
Even if you watched all of his games thus far in his career, you would've saw his rookie season, when he barely played and where almost every player struggles. His second season when he was pretty good. And his last season when he did well in the first few weeks but was then injured. True, he didn't do much once he came back. But was that due to his lack of skill or rust or still not playing at 100%?
You may be right, he could be a bum and 2016 may have been a fluke. But being able to grab a guy in the last rounds of your draft who had been a very useable RB2 just two years ago is pretty appealing. Late round, pass-catching backs in timeshares, on good offenses are the exact type of guys you target on Zero RB squads. You have to take in to account the wide range of possibilities that volatile players like Sims can produce.
Scenarios that can help Sims:
Doug Martin is already suspended for three games, and he hasn't been the most durable (or skilled) player when he's been on the field. Another suspension, another injury, or just plain poor play are all in the cards for him this year. Either of the three would create more work (and value) for Sims.
Jacquizz Rodgers is a career backup/journeyman. In his two best games last year he needed 30 and 26 carries to produce 17 PPR points. He's not too good.
Jeremy McNichols is an unproven 5th round rookie who hasn't played a snap in the NFL yet. Will he thrive as a change of pace/pass-catching back instead of Sims? Or will he struggle, as most rookies do?
Those are alot of things that could potentially work in Sims' favor. You could do worse in the last couple of rounds of your draft.
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- Apr 28, 2009
What has Charles Sims done to you?
I'm by no means an advocate of drafting him. But what are you basing him being a bum off of? So far in the three seasons that he's been in the league he's been a rookie, pretty good, and injured, respectively. And why are you placing so much trust in Jeremy McNichols - a 5th round rookie who hasn't played an NFL down yet (although he was good in college)?
Sims' stats:
2014 - rookie
2015 - 107 carries, 529 yards (4.9ypc). 51 catches, 561 yards, 4 TDs. Good for ~11.5ppg and the #16 overall PPR RB. Pretty good.
2016 - missed 9 games due to injury
Even if you watched all of his games thus far in his career, you would've saw his rookie season, when he barely played and where almost every player struggles. His second season when he was pretty good. And his last season when he did well in the first few weeks but was then injured. True, he didn't do much once he came back. But was that due to his lack of skill or rust or still not playing at 100%?
You may be right, he could be a bum and 2016 may have been a fluke. But being able to grab a guy in the last rounds of your draft who had been a very useable RB2 just two years ago is pretty appealing. Late round, pass-catching backs in timeshares, on good offenses are the exact type of guys you target on Zero RB squads. You have to take in to account the wide range of possibilities that volatile players like Sims can produce.
Scenarios that can help Sims:
Doug Martin is already suspended for three games, and he hasn't been the most durable (or skilled) player when he's been on the field. Another suspension, another injury, or just plain poor play are all in the cards for him this year. Either of the three would create more work (and value) for Sims.
Jacquizz Rodgers is a career backup/journeyman. In his two best games last year he needed 30 and 26 carries to produce 17 PPR points. He's not too good.
Jeremy McNichols is an unproven 5th round rookie who hasn't played a snap in the NFL yet. Will he thrive as a change of pace/pass-catching back instead of Sims? Or will he struggle, as most rookies do?
Those are alot of things that could potentially work in Sims' favor. You could do worse in the last couple of rounds of your draft.
Trust me, I understand where you're coming from. But I've seen enough of Sims that I wouldn't bother drafting him. If we keep him, could he catch a few passes a game still? Yeah. But they're not planning on cutting McNichols and they reallllly like his receiving ability...he started out as a WR in college. And he would have gone a lot higher if he didn't have surgery on his shoulder that kept him from being able to do much in the pre-draft activities. McNichols is the RB on the Bucs to take a late round flier on if he does well these next couple preseason games.
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- Mar 30, 2004
I'll have some shares of McNichols no doubt, especially in my keeper leagues. I'm drafting all of the Bucs RBs this year
. If Martin can return to form he'll be a steal at his ADP. Jacquizz is essentially a 3 week RB1 rental. Perfect for a Zero RB squad while your roster fleshes out and you attack the waiver wire in the early going. And Sims/McNichols are lottery tix.
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- Dec 15, 2012
I'll have some shares of McNichols no doubt, especially in my keeper leagues. I'm drafting all of the Bucs RBs this year
Yeah I have a feeling someone is going to reach hard for McFadden so im trying to find some RB1 replacements for when I inevitably reach for Zeke. Jacquizz is definitely on that list.
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- Dec 27, 2012
I'm not a fan of Darren McFadden
I'd rather have Isaiah Crowell, Danny Woodhead, Dalvin Cook, Danny Woodhead, or one of the many other RB's in the round 4-6 range.
I'd rather have Isaiah Crowell, Danny Woodhead, Dalvin Cook, Danny Woodhead, or one of the many other RB's in the round 4-6 range.
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- Dec 15, 2012
Absolutely. I just know one of the guys in my league is going to reach for him in like rounds 5-7
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- Apr 28, 2009
If McFadden is there for me in like the 6th or 7th I'm probably going to grab him. It doesn't sound like the NFL is going to go easy on Zeke. Even with them coming out with proof that the girl was planning on blackmailing him for money, that **** had nothing to do with him beating her. He still hasn't came out and denied any of that. They're basically just saying her word is unreliable because she wanted to get money from him for something else. McFadden is going to give you basically top 5 RB numbers for 6 weeks of your fantasy season...there's no other player in that range that promises you that.
BR0 MONTANA
formerly imanikehead
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- Jan 4, 2012
Any open standard scoring leagues that I can join? If not would anybody be interested in joining one I start?
Edit: 12 Team Standard scoring Yahoo Fantasy Football. Online draft is on Thursday August 24th @ 1800hrs PST
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo...c9eab0c7&ikey=e25d4d11b296bc70&soc_src=app-sh
Edit: 12 Team Standard scoring Yahoo Fantasy Football. Online draft is on Thursday August 24th @ 1800hrs PST
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo...c9eab0c7&ikey=e25d4d11b296bc70&soc_src=app-sh
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- May 31, 2007
In a keeper league and struggling with who my 3 keepers should be. Auction draft where keeper value is deducted from your budget ($200). Players I'm considering keeping are:
Julio - $62 (Lock)
Lamar Miller - $35
Jamison Crowder - $2
Edelman - $24
Frank Gore - $8
Leaning towards Crowder and Gore. Homerism aside, Crowder gets a boost from DJax and Garcon leaving and we get points for return yardage. Cheap to keep and he put up similar points to Edelman who costs significantly more. Gore was a solid RB2 and he's the bonafide starter. Miller was such a bust I'm willing to let him go back in the FA pool and maybe rebid on him.
I'm going all in for Fournette ($40-50) and maybe Mixon. Thoughts?
Julio - $62 (Lock)
Lamar Miller - $35
Jamison Crowder - $2
Edelman - $24
Frank Gore - $8
Leaning towards Crowder and Gore. Homerism aside, Crowder gets a boost from DJax and Garcon leaving and we get points for return yardage. Cheap to keep and he put up similar points to Edelman who costs significantly more. Gore was a solid RB2 and he's the bonafide starter. Miller was such a bust I'm willing to let him go back in the FA pool and maybe rebid on him.
I'm going all in for Fournette ($40-50) and maybe Mixon. Thoughts?
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- Dec 15, 2012
I'd be inclined to keep crowder and gore for those prices as well. Miller and Edelman are toss ups this year to me in standard scoring leagues. If its PPR then Edelman for me, but standard I dont think he will get a ton of redzone looks.
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- Jun 6, 2016
Z.Ertz was top-20 in receptions per game last year (missed about a qtr of the season). Needs to just stay healthy this year but I see Wentz depending on him a lot.
I'm high on CJ Anderson, J.Crowder (1000-yd guy only just turned 24; Cousins, another step), J.Winston, P.Garcon (with Kyle Shanahan), and Kelvin Benjamin's going to have a top-5 WR year any year now, that OL needs to stay up.
I'm high on CJ Anderson, J.Crowder (1000-yd guy only just turned 24; Cousins, another step), J.Winston, P.Garcon (with Kyle Shanahan), and Kelvin Benjamin's going to have a top-5 WR year any year now, that OL needs to stay up.
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- Nov 21, 2012
Parker looking good
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- Apr 22, 2015
Not a fan of K. Benjamin. I think he will get even less targets this year
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- Apr 28, 2009
Seeing the Jags offense tonight made me wanna stay alllll the way the hell away from Fournette at his ADP.
