Tier 1: High-level contenders
Warriors, Bucks, Celtics
Tier 2: Potential contenders, but a little untested
Clippers, 76ers
Tier 3: Non contenders: Well rounded squads, but are missing a piece right now
Grizzlies, Mavericks, Nuggets
Tier 4: Non-contenders: Have some great pieces but roster still needs work/needs more quality…
Suns, Heat, Minnesota, Raptors
Tier 5: Joke contenders: Top-heavy but perfect for a first round exit
Lakers, Nets
The recipe for a championship roster has stayed pretty consistent for a few decades now:
- Have an elite offensive talent in the league (usually a top-5 player in the league)
a. This offensive talent is usually your play initiator. Even if not, they need to have an offensive game that cannot be shut down even by the best of defenses.
- Have an All-NBA quality defender (ideally an elite rim protector)
- Have a starting five with good shooting options
- Have a starting five with a couple of high-level defenders
- Have enough players who can contribute on at least one end without being a complete liability on the other.
- Have enough experienced players in the roster to eke out ugly wins
- Have a top-level coach.
Assuming that chemistry and off-court issues are not a thing, here's my tier list for the 2022-23 championship.
Tier 1: High-level contenders
These are teams that have excellently constructed rosters. And have the playoff experience that has taught them how to navigate the post-season. Barring injuries, we will see them hang around late into the playoffs, and are best poised for a ring.
Warriors
Curry/Dray are the best offensive/defensive forces in the game. Wiggins/Klay/Looney are high-level defenders that fit great with Steph. Poole/Donte/Moody are great bench players and their other youngsters can only get better. Klay will be better after a summer of rest/rehab…
Celtics
A defense-first team, they have the best defensive lineup in the league right now. Tatum should make a further step ahead with his iso-game & playmaking. And Brogdon could very well be that final piece for them with his creation/defense. Big depth is their only worry at the moment.
Bucks
Bucks have the best player in the league. Holiday & Middleton are incredible playoff talents. And Lopez is an excellent asset to have as well. Weak on depth + burdened by bumbling Coach Bud, but Giannis can cover up gaping holes like no one else can…
Tier 2: Potential contenders, but a little untested
These are teams that have all the ingredients on paper, but haven’t picked up enough playoff experience as a team. This is a tier of ‘raw’ teams that could potentially put it all together, but have never done so before…
Clippers
Clippers have Kawhi+PG plus a pretty deep squad with enough shooting/defense/creation going around. Wall might provide them that much-needed playmaking punch for the playoffs. Their wing defense is top-tier although their rim protection needs work.
76ers
Embiid+PJ+Tobi has enough defense going around (with Thybulle for support). Embiid/Harden/Maxey should give you a pretty good offense. Depth continues to be a concern.
And thus ends the list of realistic contenders. If you played out this season 100 times, I feel one of these 5 teams would the ring like 95% of the team.
Tier 3: Non contenders: Well rounded squads, but are missing a piece right now
Barring a spate of injuries (a la 2021 playoffs) to the contenders above, these teams have no chance. They’re all missing a piece or missing a higher level of talent. They could still seed reasonably high and push for the conference finals.
Grizzlies
Ja aside they’re an excellent defensive team. And with/without Ja they’ve found ways to generate offense. They have some shooting, some size and some switchable defenders. And JJJ has more to go to his ceiling.
If Ja takes another step ahead offensively and can shore up his defense, they could move into Tier 2, but this is a team still short of some quality & leadership on both ends.
Mavericks
Luka is only getting scarier but Mavs have put together a lopsided squad around him, thus dooming his ring hopes. The lack of a quality rim protector continues to hurt them.
Kidd did a good job making them buy in on defense (hence the good regular season DRTG), but effort won’t suffice deep in the playoffs.
They have some good 3-and-D wings and Luka, but they still need a defensive piece and I don’t think McGee is that piece.
Nuggets
This is a team that has constantly left Jokic & Gordon to deal with way too much on the
defensive end. Additions of Bruce Brown & KCP should help, but they still have the defensive deadweight of MPJ and Jamal Murray.
Jokic is the best of the best in the league today, and he could do well with some more rim protection help.
Too much unknown about the post-injury quality of Murray/MPJ, but that will determine which round they exit.
Tier 4: Non-contenders: Have some great pieces but roster still needs work/needs more quality…
These teams have great talents but typically lack some balance. Perhaps they’re missing a high-level defender or an offense initiator, or a secondary scorer etc. If they can wrangle a star somehow they’ll shoot up the tiers since their other pieces are looking good.
Suns
The Suns have a balanced starting lineup: great playmaking, iso-scoring, some shooting, good PoA defense, some rim protection and some post play. Yet they lack that elite talent on either end (theoretically CP3 on O and Bridges/Ayton on D should provide that, but I don’t buy it)
Booker cannot produce against elite defenses in the playoffs. CP3 struggles to stay healthy in the playoffs. Ayton hasn’t shown that next step yet. Barring an unlikely Jock Landale explosion, Suns’ ceiling seems the WCF.
Heat
They have a gaping hole at PF with the loss of PJ Tucker. The rest of their squad fares really well defensively. They seem to lack enough offense though: they don’t seem to have enough scoring punch beyond Jimmy & Herro (unless Oladipo regains his powers somehow)
Jimmy & Lowry have their injury issues and Bam has his consistency issues - overall they’re just missing a high-level player to get them over the hump.
Minnesota
I’m
still not sold on KAT playing the right plays in the playoffs and being an unstoppable force. Unless Ant takes a massive leap forward on both ends, this team has no scope this season.
Gobert will be the monster he is, but the lack of good PoA defense will force Gobert to defend too much. (esp with the losses of PatBev/Vanderbilt). Their depth is worse this time as well. Second round exit at best.
Raptors
Great coach, great GM and a very very good roster. They’ll be a suffocating defensive once again, but they once again look like they’re missing a high-level creator or scorer. They also seem to lack some shooting.
Tier 5: Joke contenders: Top-heavy but perfect for a first round exit
Nets
Their only 2 plus-defenders (Claxton & Ben) cannot be played in close games. KD has a really heavy offensive load and cannot be burdened with even more defensive duties.
They have tons of shooters, but none of them can defend. They’re still heavily iso-reliant which makes them more predictable in playoffs.
This team has no shot at coming out of the East, let alone a ring. Best case they make the second round.
I had the Lakers in this tier too since they too have no hopes at a ring, but at least have an elite defender in AD.
Other teams like Cavs/Pels/Bulls/Hawks/Portland are all multiple offensive and defensive pieces from entering this tier list.