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Still too soon, IMO... Sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions.
But I think there probably is a reasonable argument to be made it’s likely not the best developmental choice to make.
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
But I think there probably is a reasonable argument to be made it’s likely not the best developmental choice to make.
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6 months in a college wouldn't have given Mudiay a jumpshot. Brandon Jennings spent a decade in the nba as a 6' 165 lb guard and "flamed out" after he tore his achilles. Thon didn't go overseas...he was straight from prep school.
Conversely....Mitchell Robinson is probably going to make alot of money..and he sat in the house for 6 months before the draft.
Conversely....Mitchell Robinson is probably going to make alot of money..and he sat in the house for 6 months before the draft.
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2020 NBA Draft: Golden State Warriors not likely to use No. 2 overall pick on a center, per report
This would likely rule out James Wiseman and perhaps even Onyeka Okongwu for Golden State
www.cbssports.com
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Sheesh the youngin just elevating for jumpers over Gobert like it’s nothin...Smooth with it too
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The one and done cats ain’t making the college or overseas choice with development in mind anyway...It’s a money and lifestyle decision for them
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Where is this Victor kid from? France?
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DX has been on the kid for a little over a year IIRC.
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Zeke Nnaji is getting slept on. He was far and away Arizona's best player. Should be an average defender, but could be really good and productive offensively. Pretty strong and athletic. High motor. Best FT rate among the bigs not named Wiseman, and at 76% from the stripe, the only big that shoots them better is Isaiah Stewart who is at 77%. Jumper is really smooth. Sean Miller didn't let him do it at Arizona, but I think he's going to be able to shoot 3s sooner rather than later.
Don't understand how some mocks have him falling out of the first.
Don't understand how some mocks have him falling out of the first.
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Reviewing Malachi Flynn tape, I am intrigued.
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B Sox
NBA draft: Scouting Tyrese Haliburton and his underrated ceiling
Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton has long been considered one of the 2020 NBA draft's safest prospects. But last week, I watched the top-10 prospect play live in Las Vegas for the first time in almost a year, and that evaluation -- plus recent film study and intel gathering -- has me wondering if praising the unconventional 20-year-old guard for his high floor alone is selling him short.
Let's take a closer look at why the 6-foot-5 Haliburton might belong among the draft's elite and could become one of the best players to come out of the 2020 class, depending on the situation he lands in.
Haliburton's credentials and intangibles
Haliburton is an analytics darling with tremendous efficiency and nearly unprecedented steal and block rates for a guard. He combines great standstill shooting -- a career 43.5% from 3, funky mechanics and all -- with strong playmaking (3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio). And he's full of positivity, with an approach to the game that teammates, opponents, coaches and agents of rival prospects rave about.
"I don't think Tyrese has ever had a bad day," former Iowa State and current Utah Jazz forward Georges Niang said.
"He's the complete package in terms of intangibles," added Iowa State assistant coach James Kane, who recruited Ja Morant to Murray State.
After starting the year on a high note with a 25-9-5 game against Michigan and a 23-11-9 performance in a win over Alabama, the do-it-all point guard fractured his left wrist in late December. He opted to play through the injury, posting a 22-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist triple-double against TCU. After reaggravating the injury during a Feb. 8 win over Kansas State, Haliburton was forced to shut it down, although he did hang around and function basically as "another assistant coach," according to Kane.
Despite battling injury issues for half of the season, Haliburton was still the only player in the NCAA to average 15-5-5 while shooting at least 59% from 2 and 41% from 3. While he might not be a shifty shot-creator or a run-and-jump athlete, there's a case that he's closer to a top-three player in this class than a mid-lottery selection.
"Yeah, I mean obviously I think that, but I'm not the guy who makes the decisions," Haliburton told ESPN. "I hope we can -- a year from now, two years from now -- we can go revisit it and, we'll see what people have to say about where I should have been [drafted]."
When Haliburton walked into the Impact Basketball gym in Las Vegas, the mood changed. He'd blurt out, 'You're too little down there!' to coaches defending the post or, "186, big body!" after stepping on the scale and seeing his 18-pound increase since the college season ended.
He regularly lifts up teammates with daps and words of encouragement. He's positive and charismatic by nature, something he attributes to his father. After dribbling the ball off his leg and getting hung on the rim on a baseline dunk attempt, Haliburton ran out of the gym smiling. Moments later, he rejoined the drill and splashed three 3s to quiet the playful hecklers.
"People look at the joyous kid and think he's just happy to be there, but his competitive nature is crazy," Niang said. "His ability to fail and keep coming back for more and more, that's what's going to make this kid special is that one failure isn't going to lead to his demise."
In a gym that included several other potential first-round picks, Haliburton was in a class of his own in competitive situations, taking over 3-on-3 bouts with his passing, deep range and feel for the game, which has been the norm over the past few months. He stepped into 30-footers when opponents went under screens. He picked weakside defenders apart, using his height to see over the top. On defense, he makes good reads and remains competitive off the ball, though he has room to grow in on-ball situations.
"His basketball IQ is off the charts," Colorado forward Tyler Bey said.
An underrated ceiling?
The question of Haliburton's upside is a hot topic among NBA front offices, and he's currently slotted as the No. 8 prospect on ESPN's top 100, which may ultimately be his backstop if the point-guard-starved New York Knicks stay put at the eighth pick. For as productive and efficient as he's been, compliments from scouts often come with a caveat.
"He's a great piece on a winning team," one NBA executive said.
As we saw when surrounded by Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Reggie Perry on the gold medal Team USA Under-19 squad at the 2019 FIBA World Cup, Haliburton comes alive as a facilitator next to elite talent. However, critics point to questions about Haliburton's ability to create off the dribble, his pull-up jumper and his on-ball defense when he's not flush with great teammates.
Haliburton acknowledges he's working on defending with physicality and his pull-up jump shot after connecting on just 16 off-the-dribble jumpers last season, per Synergy Sports Technology. If he's thrust into a situation in which he's asked to generate his own offense, he figures to have a steeper learning curve.
Yet ESPN's Kevin Pelton rates Haliburton as the second-best prospect in the draft, behind only LaMelo Ball, in both his stats-only projections and his model that accounts for a prospect's ranking in our Top 100. Other analytics models, both inside and outside NBA teams, have Haliburton at No. 1.
He boasts a stellar career 64.9 true shooting percentage through 57 games at Iowa State. With a much larger role on a middle-of-the-road Cyclones team last season, he posted the seventh-best true shooting percentage among prospects in our Top 100 (and the best among perimeter players). Given that his usage rate spiked from 9.2% as a freshman to 20.2% as a sophomore, his ability to adapt and improve is impressive.
"I do it in a different way," Haliburton said. "I don't take tough shots, I don't force bad things. I try to get the best looks at all times, and I think people aren't used to that. People are used to guys taking tough shots for no reason at times."
Haliburton was even more effective during seven World Cup games. He became one of only 11 players in FIBA history to post a true shooting percentage over 80 (minimum 20 minutes per game), joining a list that includes Hall of Famer Reggie Miller and NBA stars LeBron James and Nikola Jokic, while also averaging 11.0 assists, 3.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes.
Haliburton's closest comparison -- both statistically and in terms of strengths and weaknesses coming out of college -- is the New Orleans Pelicans' Lonzo Ball. Pelton noted that the two players' statistical profiles are almost identical if you compare Ball's freshman projection to Haliburton as a sophomore. (Haliburton entered college about four months younger than Ball.)
According to Pelton, what stands out most is they both had such strong wins above replacement player (WARP) projections with such a low projected usage rate. In fact, Haliburton's usage projection (12.2%) is the lowest ever for a player with a stats-only projection of 3.5 WARP or better.
Skeptics use Ball's early NBA struggles to poke holes in Haliburton's game, but as Pelton noted, "I wonder if [they] are giving enough credit to his ability to grow. Besides Lonzo, a lot of the comps tended to be late-blooming prospects who weren't on the radar at all at age 20."
Aside from a very different development path from unheralded recruit to top-10 pick, Haliburton differs from Ball in a few key areas. Haliburton ranked fourth in the NCAA in catch-and-shoot efficiency as a sophomore. Despite his ability to knock down deep step-backs at UCLA, Ball still faced questions about his shooting consistency, which showed up during his rookie season. Haliburton still has to prove himself as a pull-up shooter, but it's easier to see him shooting around 40% from distance early in his NBA career.
In fact, Pelton said that Haliburton has the 18th-best projected shooting rating (which incorporates 3P%, 3PA rate and FT%) among all point guards using his model. Current NBA stars Trae Young and Jamal Murray are the two guys who were younger than him in that group.
Sure, he will never be as powerful as Georgia's Anthony Edwards or as creative as LaMelo Ball, but based on what he showed at Impact, he's stronger and starting to look more comfortable shooting off the dribble when under duress. Overanalyzing Haliburton's unorthodox game could lead scouts to miss some of the factors that make him such an impactful player on and off the court.
"Everybody's like, 'He has a high floor, he's probably the safest pick in the draft,' which I agree with but low ceiling is a tough comment to make I think," Haliburton said. "We'll revisit it in a couple years and see what that ceiling really is."
A perfect fit with Golden State?
Haliburton could be an ideal long-term fit with the Golden State Warriors, especially if they decide to trade back a few spots from No. 2.
Going to Golden State would allow Haliburton to play to his strengths as a rookie. Having great players around him also makes some of his shortcomings less pronounced, alleviating pressure to quarterback an entire offense.
Like we've seen with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alongside Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder in OKC, multi-guard lineups have plenty of upside. And Haliburton doesn't need volume to have a major impact.
"I think I'm a really good fit there," Haliburton said. "I think I can obviously come in and make shots as well and be in the first unit or lead the second unit."
Very few rookies in this class are going to come in and significantly contribute to another Warriors title run. But Haliburton can fit the culture and help right now with his shooting and feel while being groomed as the point guard of the future as Curry ages.
"The kid's a winner, bottom line," Kane said.
Scouting more 2020 PGs
I also saw a handful of other point guard prospects on a recent workout tour in California and Las Vegas. (I only made it out to driveable locations, so there aren't updates on LaMelo Ball, Cole Anthony, Killian Hayes, Kira Lewis, Nico Mannion and Cassius Winston, among others).
Here's what I learned:
Tre Jones finally at full strength
The typical pre-draft process is full of specious claims that prospects have added new skills or increased athleticism. But given the seven-month gap since the NCAA season was halted in March, this year is a bit different, with prospects having plenty of time to get healthy or improve.
Duke guard Tre Jones had surgery on one hip going into his freshman season and the same surgery on the other going into his sophomore season, limiting him athletically at times and taking away major opportunities to develop in the offseason.
"I could tell [how limiting it was] in all areas really," Jones said. "If it was on defense and I was shuffling, I could feel it there. Running straight forward I could feel it. Jumping, obviously, I could feel it. All movements I was doing I could feel some limitations there.
"Just being able to be 100%, being able to have my full range of motion, being able to work on everything without any pain day to day is just amazing."
Jones certainly looked more explosive going through a full 1-on-0 workout. According to P3 Sports Science data, Jones set a facility record on the five-yard slide test, where the athlete does a defensive slide for five yards before sliding back to the starting line. The 2020 ACC Defensive Player of the Year has a lateral acceleration that is 15% above average for an NBA athlete.
On a vertical plane, Jones is also a standout, finishing in the top five over the past decade in the drop jump, leaping off an 18-inch box and immediately jumping 35 inches into the air.
It's Jones' shooting that will ultimately dictate his long-term upside at the highest level, but to see him pop athletically is noteworthy.
Devon Dotson: 'I'm a winner at the highest level'
Potential first-rounder Devon Dotson missed only one game over the past two seasons, logging just under 2,200 minutes in 65 games and helping lead Kansas to a 53-13 record.
"I'm a winner at the highest level," Dotson said. "That's a big part of it. Having those intangibles and what it takes to win and what it takes to run a team at a high level."
Although his 3-point percentage dipped from 36% to 30% last season, Dotson was one of only two players in the NCAA to average at least 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per game, and he did so as the catalyst for a 27-3 Kansas team.
Scouts and executives consider him arguably the fastest guard in the draft with a strong, compact frame and the quicks to be a disruptor defensively. He's playing above the rim quite regularly in drill work, and he continues to make strides as a perimeter shooter off the dribble and the catch. While there is no shortage of point guards in this class, Dotson enters the draft with proven experience on his side.
"Being in [Kansas] practice every day, being in that environment, that culture -- [coach Bill] Self, he sets his guards up to a high standard," Dotson said. "He brings the best out of them. It takes a lot to win. We know that and we know what it takes to win coming from that program."
Malachi Flynn opening eyes in Vegas
SDSU's Malachi Flynn has continued to gain momentum as a popular draft-day sleeper, and it was easy to see why in skill work and 3-on-3 scrimmages in Las Vegas. He has great footwork and range on pick-and-roll pull-ups, and he is comfortable playing out of handoffs. He makes virtually every ball-screen read and brings toughness on defense.
"I love his game," Washington State wing and fellow draft prospect CJ Elleby said. "Just the way he plays. He has a wiggle to him, a flow ... his shot is so pure, and he's just a super talented player."
The 2020 Mountain West Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, Flynn brings an NBA-ready game at 22 years old that's ideally suited for today's style of play with his shotmaking, toughness and feel.
"Just the style of play in the NBA, it's definitely different from college," Flynn said. "I think there's a lot more space. I feel like I'll be able to do well in that with a lot more space. You look in the playoffs, Tyler Herro having great games just by shooting the ball. Duncan Robinson has been huge for the Heat. Just guys like that, it shows that it's a skilled league."
Grant Riller: The draft's most accomplished scorer
Grant Riller is arguably the most intriguing mid-major prospect in the draft, with a smooth game and big resume coming out of Charleston. The 6-3 Riller has been one of the NCAA's most electric scorers over the past two seasons, averaging more than 21 points per game and finishing with the highest player efficiency rating among guards as a senior (30.
. Riller turned in an incredibly prolific and efficient four-year career, scoring just under 2,400 points in 127 games with a 62.3% true shooting percentage.
I got a first-hand look at Riller during a 1-on-0 workout in L.A. to get a feel for how he is shooting the ball after cashing in on 36% of his triples as a senior and 33% as a junior. Riller's shotmaking ability has translated well to the NBA line, at least in an uncontested setting.
"In the past I feel like my mechanics haven't always been the best, starting with my feet," Riller said. "But working with [my trainer], he's kind of given me a few tips, just on my feet and my base. But since then I've gotten more comfortable."
On top of daily on-court and strength workouts, the 23-year-old guard said he has spent the past few months studying NBA guards, particularly Oklahoma City's Schroder.
"I think we share a lot of qualities," Riller said. "A quick guard that gets downhill, can score at all three levels, is good in the pick-and-roll. Pretty savvy defender. More importantly he plays both guard spots. He's a little undersized at the 2 but at the same time he can be out there with CP3 or he can be running the point."[/quote]
Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton has long been considered one of the 2020 NBA draft's safest prospects. But last week, I watched the top-10 prospect play live in Las Vegas for the first time in almost a year, and that evaluation -- plus recent film study and intel gathering -- has me wondering if praising the unconventional 20-year-old guard for his high floor alone is selling him short.
Let's take a closer look at why the 6-foot-5 Haliburton might belong among the draft's elite and could become one of the best players to come out of the 2020 class, depending on the situation he lands in.
Haliburton's credentials and intangibles
Haliburton is an analytics darling with tremendous efficiency and nearly unprecedented steal and block rates for a guard. He combines great standstill shooting -- a career 43.5% from 3, funky mechanics and all -- with strong playmaking (3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio). And he's full of positivity, with an approach to the game that teammates, opponents, coaches and agents of rival prospects rave about.
"I don't think Tyrese has ever had a bad day," former Iowa State and current Utah Jazz forward Georges Niang said.
"He's the complete package in terms of intangibles," added Iowa State assistant coach James Kane, who recruited Ja Morant to Murray State.
After starting the year on a high note with a 25-9-5 game against Michigan and a 23-11-9 performance in a win over Alabama, the do-it-all point guard fractured his left wrist in late December. He opted to play through the injury, posting a 22-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist triple-double against TCU. After reaggravating the injury during a Feb. 8 win over Kansas State, Haliburton was forced to shut it down, although he did hang around and function basically as "another assistant coach," according to Kane.
Despite battling injury issues for half of the season, Haliburton was still the only player in the NCAA to average 15-5-5 while shooting at least 59% from 2 and 41% from 3. While he might not be a shifty shot-creator or a run-and-jump athlete, there's a case that he's closer to a top-three player in this class than a mid-lottery selection.
"Yeah, I mean obviously I think that, but I'm not the guy who makes the decisions," Haliburton told ESPN. "I hope we can -- a year from now, two years from now -- we can go revisit it and, we'll see what people have to say about where I should have been [drafted]."
When Haliburton walked into the Impact Basketball gym in Las Vegas, the mood changed. He'd blurt out, 'You're too little down there!' to coaches defending the post or, "186, big body!" after stepping on the scale and seeing his 18-pound increase since the college season ended.
He regularly lifts up teammates with daps and words of encouragement. He's positive and charismatic by nature, something he attributes to his father. After dribbling the ball off his leg and getting hung on the rim on a baseline dunk attempt, Haliburton ran out of the gym smiling. Moments later, he rejoined the drill and splashed three 3s to quiet the playful hecklers.
"People look at the joyous kid and think he's just happy to be there, but his competitive nature is crazy," Niang said. "His ability to fail and keep coming back for more and more, that's what's going to make this kid special is that one failure isn't going to lead to his demise."
In a gym that included several other potential first-round picks, Haliburton was in a class of his own in competitive situations, taking over 3-on-3 bouts with his passing, deep range and feel for the game, which has been the norm over the past few months. He stepped into 30-footers when opponents went under screens. He picked weakside defenders apart, using his height to see over the top. On defense, he makes good reads and remains competitive off the ball, though he has room to grow in on-ball situations.
"His basketball IQ is off the charts," Colorado forward Tyler Bey said.
An underrated ceiling?
The question of Haliburton's upside is a hot topic among NBA front offices, and he's currently slotted as the No. 8 prospect on ESPN's top 100, which may ultimately be his backstop if the point-guard-starved New York Knicks stay put at the eighth pick. For as productive and efficient as he's been, compliments from scouts often come with a caveat.
"He's a great piece on a winning team," one NBA executive said.
As we saw when surrounded by Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Reggie Perry on the gold medal Team USA Under-19 squad at the 2019 FIBA World Cup, Haliburton comes alive as a facilitator next to elite talent. However, critics point to questions about Haliburton's ability to create off the dribble, his pull-up jumper and his on-ball defense when he's not flush with great teammates.
Haliburton acknowledges he's working on defending with physicality and his pull-up jump shot after connecting on just 16 off-the-dribble jumpers last season, per Synergy Sports Technology. If he's thrust into a situation in which he's asked to generate his own offense, he figures to have a steeper learning curve.
Yet ESPN's Kevin Pelton rates Haliburton as the second-best prospect in the draft, behind only LaMelo Ball, in both his stats-only projections and his model that accounts for a prospect's ranking in our Top 100. Other analytics models, both inside and outside NBA teams, have Haliburton at No. 1.
He boasts a stellar career 64.9 true shooting percentage through 57 games at Iowa State. With a much larger role on a middle-of-the-road Cyclones team last season, he posted the seventh-best true shooting percentage among prospects in our Top 100 (and the best among perimeter players). Given that his usage rate spiked from 9.2% as a freshman to 20.2% as a sophomore, his ability to adapt and improve is impressive.
"I do it in a different way," Haliburton said. "I don't take tough shots, I don't force bad things. I try to get the best looks at all times, and I think people aren't used to that. People are used to guys taking tough shots for no reason at times."
Haliburton was even more effective during seven World Cup games. He became one of only 11 players in FIBA history to post a true shooting percentage over 80 (minimum 20 minutes per game), joining a list that includes Hall of Famer Reggie Miller and NBA stars LeBron James and Nikola Jokic, while also averaging 11.0 assists, 3.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes.
Haliburton's closest comparison -- both statistically and in terms of strengths and weaknesses coming out of college -- is the New Orleans Pelicans' Lonzo Ball. Pelton noted that the two players' statistical profiles are almost identical if you compare Ball's freshman projection to Haliburton as a sophomore. (Haliburton entered college about four months younger than Ball.)
According to Pelton, what stands out most is they both had such strong wins above replacement player (WARP) projections with such a low projected usage rate. In fact, Haliburton's usage projection (12.2%) is the lowest ever for a player with a stats-only projection of 3.5 WARP or better.
Skeptics use Ball's early NBA struggles to poke holes in Haliburton's game, but as Pelton noted, "I wonder if [they] are giving enough credit to his ability to grow. Besides Lonzo, a lot of the comps tended to be late-blooming prospects who weren't on the radar at all at age 20."
Aside from a very different development path from unheralded recruit to top-10 pick, Haliburton differs from Ball in a few key areas. Haliburton ranked fourth in the NCAA in catch-and-shoot efficiency as a sophomore. Despite his ability to knock down deep step-backs at UCLA, Ball still faced questions about his shooting consistency, which showed up during his rookie season. Haliburton still has to prove himself as a pull-up shooter, but it's easier to see him shooting around 40% from distance early in his NBA career.
In fact, Pelton said that Haliburton has the 18th-best projected shooting rating (which incorporates 3P%, 3PA rate and FT%) among all point guards using his model. Current NBA stars Trae Young and Jamal Murray are the two guys who were younger than him in that group.
Sure, he will never be as powerful as Georgia's Anthony Edwards or as creative as LaMelo Ball, but based on what he showed at Impact, he's stronger and starting to look more comfortable shooting off the dribble when under duress. Overanalyzing Haliburton's unorthodox game could lead scouts to miss some of the factors that make him such an impactful player on and off the court.
"Everybody's like, 'He has a high floor, he's probably the safest pick in the draft,' which I agree with but low ceiling is a tough comment to make I think," Haliburton said. "We'll revisit it in a couple years and see what that ceiling really is."
A perfect fit with Golden State?
Haliburton could be an ideal long-term fit with the Golden State Warriors, especially if they decide to trade back a few spots from No. 2.
Going to Golden State would allow Haliburton to play to his strengths as a rookie. Having great players around him also makes some of his shortcomings less pronounced, alleviating pressure to quarterback an entire offense.
Like we've seen with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alongside Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder in OKC, multi-guard lineups have plenty of upside. And Haliburton doesn't need volume to have a major impact.
"I think I'm a really good fit there," Haliburton said. "I think I can obviously come in and make shots as well and be in the first unit or lead the second unit."
Very few rookies in this class are going to come in and significantly contribute to another Warriors title run. But Haliburton can fit the culture and help right now with his shooting and feel while being groomed as the point guard of the future as Curry ages.
"The kid's a winner, bottom line," Kane said.
Scouting more 2020 PGs
I also saw a handful of other point guard prospects on a recent workout tour in California and Las Vegas. (I only made it out to driveable locations, so there aren't updates on LaMelo Ball, Cole Anthony, Killian Hayes, Kira Lewis, Nico Mannion and Cassius Winston, among others).
Here's what I learned:
Tre Jones finally at full strength
The typical pre-draft process is full of specious claims that prospects have added new skills or increased athleticism. But given the seven-month gap since the NCAA season was halted in March, this year is a bit different, with prospects having plenty of time to get healthy or improve.
Duke guard Tre Jones had surgery on one hip going into his freshman season and the same surgery on the other going into his sophomore season, limiting him athletically at times and taking away major opportunities to develop in the offseason.
"I could tell [how limiting it was] in all areas really," Jones said. "If it was on defense and I was shuffling, I could feel it there. Running straight forward I could feel it. Jumping, obviously, I could feel it. All movements I was doing I could feel some limitations there.
"Just being able to be 100%, being able to have my full range of motion, being able to work on everything without any pain day to day is just amazing."
Jones certainly looked more explosive going through a full 1-on-0 workout. According to P3 Sports Science data, Jones set a facility record on the five-yard slide test, where the athlete does a defensive slide for five yards before sliding back to the starting line. The 2020 ACC Defensive Player of the Year has a lateral acceleration that is 15% above average for an NBA athlete.
On a vertical plane, Jones is also a standout, finishing in the top five over the past decade in the drop jump, leaping off an 18-inch box and immediately jumping 35 inches into the air.
It's Jones' shooting that will ultimately dictate his long-term upside at the highest level, but to see him pop athletically is noteworthy.
Devon Dotson: 'I'm a winner at the highest level'
Potential first-rounder Devon Dotson missed only one game over the past two seasons, logging just under 2,200 minutes in 65 games and helping lead Kansas to a 53-13 record.
"I'm a winner at the highest level," Dotson said. "That's a big part of it. Having those intangibles and what it takes to win and what it takes to run a team at a high level."
Although his 3-point percentage dipped from 36% to 30% last season, Dotson was one of only two players in the NCAA to average at least 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per game, and he did so as the catalyst for a 27-3 Kansas team.
Scouts and executives consider him arguably the fastest guard in the draft with a strong, compact frame and the quicks to be a disruptor defensively. He's playing above the rim quite regularly in drill work, and he continues to make strides as a perimeter shooter off the dribble and the catch. While there is no shortage of point guards in this class, Dotson enters the draft with proven experience on his side.
"Being in [Kansas] practice every day, being in that environment, that culture -- [coach Bill] Self, he sets his guards up to a high standard," Dotson said. "He brings the best out of them. It takes a lot to win. We know that and we know what it takes to win coming from that program."
Malachi Flynn opening eyes in Vegas
SDSU's Malachi Flynn has continued to gain momentum as a popular draft-day sleeper, and it was easy to see why in skill work and 3-on-3 scrimmages in Las Vegas. He has great footwork and range on pick-and-roll pull-ups, and he is comfortable playing out of handoffs. He makes virtually every ball-screen read and brings toughness on defense.
"I love his game," Washington State wing and fellow draft prospect CJ Elleby said. "Just the way he plays. He has a wiggle to him, a flow ... his shot is so pure, and he's just a super talented player."
The 2020 Mountain West Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, Flynn brings an NBA-ready game at 22 years old that's ideally suited for today's style of play with his shotmaking, toughness and feel.
"Just the style of play in the NBA, it's definitely different from college," Flynn said. "I think there's a lot more space. I feel like I'll be able to do well in that with a lot more space. You look in the playoffs, Tyler Herro having great games just by shooting the ball. Duncan Robinson has been huge for the Heat. Just guys like that, it shows that it's a skilled league."
Grant Riller: The draft's most accomplished scorer
Grant Riller is arguably the most intriguing mid-major prospect in the draft, with a smooth game and big resume coming out of Charleston. The 6-3 Riller has been one of the NCAA's most electric scorers over the past two seasons, averaging more than 21 points per game and finishing with the highest player efficiency rating among guards as a senior (30.
. Riller turned in an incredibly prolific and efficient four-year career, scoring just under 2,400 points in 127 games with a 62.3% true shooting percentage.I got a first-hand look at Riller during a 1-on-0 workout in L.A. to get a feel for how he is shooting the ball after cashing in on 36% of his triples as a senior and 33% as a junior. Riller's shotmaking ability has translated well to the NBA line, at least in an uncontested setting.
"In the past I feel like my mechanics haven't always been the best, starting with my feet," Riller said. "But working with [my trainer], he's kind of given me a few tips, just on my feet and my base. But since then I've gotten more comfortable."
On top of daily on-court and strength workouts, the 23-year-old guard said he has spent the past few months studying NBA guards, particularly Oklahoma City's Schroder.
"I think we share a lot of qualities," Riller said. "A quick guard that gets downhill, can score at all three levels, is good in the pick-and-roll. Pretty savvy defender. More importantly he plays both guard spots. He's a little undersized at the 2 but at the same time he can be out there with CP3 or he can be running the point."[/quote]
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NBA draft: Scouting Tyrese Haliburton and his underrated ceiling
Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton has long been considered one of the 2020 NBA draft's safest prospects. But last week, I watched the top-10 prospect play live in Las Vegas for the first time in almost a year, and that evaluation -- plus recent film study and intel gathering -- has me wondering if praising the unconventional 20-year-old guard for his high floor alone is selling him short.
Let's take a closer look at why the 6-foot-5 Haliburton might belong among the draft's elite and could become one of the best players to come out of the 2020 class, depending on the situation he lands in.
Haliburton's credentials and intangibles
Haliburton is an analytics darling with tremendous efficiency and nearly unprecedented steal and block rates for a guard. He combines great standstill shooting -- a career 43.5% from 3, funky mechanics and all -- with strong playmaking (3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio). And he's full of positivity, with an approach to the game that teammates, opponents, coaches and agents of rival prospects rave about.
"I don't think Tyrese has ever had a bad day," former Iowa State and current Utah Jazz forward Georges Niang said.
"He's the complete package in terms of intangibles," added Iowa State assistant coach James Kane, who recruited Ja Morant to Murray State.
After starting the year on a high note with a 25-9-5 game against Michigan and a 23-11-9 performance in a win over Alabama, the do-it-all point guard fractured his left wrist in late December. He opted to play through the injury, posting a 22-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist triple-double against TCU. After reaggravating the injury during a Feb. 8 win over Kansas State, Haliburton was forced to shut it down, although he did hang around and function basically as "another assistant coach," according to Kane.
Despite battling injury issues for half of the season, Haliburton was still the only player in the NCAA to average 15-5-5 while shooting at least 59% from 2 and 41% from 3. While he might not be a shifty shot-creator or a run-and-jump athlete, there's a case that he's closer to a top-three player in this class than a mid-lottery selection.
"Yeah, I mean obviously I think that, but I'm not the guy who makes the decisions," Haliburton told ESPN. "I hope we can -- a year from now, two years from now -- we can go revisit it and, we'll see what people have to say about where I should have been [drafted]."
When Haliburton walked into the Impact Basketball gym in Las Vegas, the mood changed. He'd blurt out, 'You're too little down there!' to coaches defending the post or, "186, big body!" after stepping on the scale and seeing his 18-pound increase since the college season ended.
He regularly lifts up teammates with daps and words of encouragement. He's positive and charismatic by nature, something he attributes to his father. After dribbling the ball off his leg and getting hung on the rim on a baseline dunk attempt, Haliburton ran out of the gym smiling. Moments later, he rejoined the drill and splashed three 3s to quiet the playful hecklers.
"People look at the joyous kid and think he's just happy to be there, but his competitive nature is crazy," Niang said. "His ability to fail and keep coming back for more and more, that's what's going to make this kid special is that one failure isn't going to lead to his demise."
In a gym that included several other potential first-round picks, Haliburton was in a class of his own in competitive situations, taking over 3-on-3 bouts with his passing, deep range and feel for the game, which has been the norm over the past few months. He stepped into 30-footers when opponents went under screens. He picked weakside defenders apart, using his height to see over the top. On defense, he makes good reads and remains competitive off the ball, though he has room to grow in on-ball situations.
"His basketball IQ is off the charts," Colorado forward Tyler Bey said.
An underrated ceiling?
The question of Haliburton's upside is a hot topic among NBA front offices, and he's currently slotted as the No. 8 prospect on ESPN's top 100, which may ultimately be his backstop if the point-guard-starved New York Knicks stay put at the eighth pick. For as productive and efficient as he's been, compliments from scouts often come with a caveat.
"He's a great piece on a winning team," one NBA executive said.
As we saw when surrounded by Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Reggie Perry on the gold medal Team USA Under-19 squad at the 2019 FIBA World Cup, Haliburton comes alive as a facilitator next to elite talent. However, critics point to questions about Haliburton's ability to create off the dribble, his pull-up jumper and his on-ball defense when he's not flush with great teammates.
Haliburton acknowledges he's working on defending with physicality and his pull-up jump shot after connecting on just 16 off-the-dribble jumpers last season, per Synergy Sports Technology. If he's thrust into a situation in which he's asked to generate his own offense, he figures to have a steeper learning curve.
Yet ESPN's Kevin Pelton rates Haliburton as the second-best prospect in the draft, behind only LaMelo Ball, in both his stats-only projections and his model that accounts for a prospect's ranking in our Top 100. Other analytics models, both inside and outside NBA teams, have Haliburton at No. 1.
He boasts a stellar career 64.9 true shooting percentage through 57 games at Iowa State. With a much larger role on a middle-of-the-road Cyclones team last season, he posted the seventh-best true shooting percentage among prospects in our Top 100 (and the best among perimeter players). Given that his usage rate spiked from 9.2% as a freshman to 20.2% as a sophomore, his ability to adapt and improve is impressive.
"I do it in a different way," Haliburton said. "I don't take tough shots, I don't force bad things. I try to get the best looks at all times, and I think people aren't used to that. People are used to guys taking tough shots for no reason at times."
Haliburton was even more effective during seven World Cup games. He became one of only 11 players in FIBA history to post a true shooting percentage over 80 (minimum 20 minutes per game), joining a list that includes Hall of Famer Reggie Miller and NBA stars LeBron James and Nikola Jokic, while also averaging 11.0 assists, 3.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes.
Haliburton's closest comparison -- both statistically and in terms of strengths and weaknesses coming out of college -- is the New Orleans Pelicans' Lonzo Ball. Pelton noted that the two players' statistical profiles are almost identical if you compare Ball's freshman projection to Haliburton as a sophomore. (Haliburton entered college about four months younger than Ball.)
According to Pelton, what stands out most is they both had such strong wins above replacement player (WARP) projections with such a low projected usage rate. In fact, Haliburton's usage projection (12.2%) is the lowest ever for a player with a stats-only projection of 3.5 WARP or better.
Skeptics use Ball's early NBA struggles to poke holes in Haliburton's game, but as Pelton noted, "I wonder if [they] are giving enough credit to his ability to grow. Besides Lonzo, a lot of the comps tended to be late-blooming prospects who weren't on the radar at all at age 20."
Aside from a very different development path from unheralded recruit to top-10 pick, Haliburton differs from Ball in a few key areas. Haliburton ranked fourth in the NCAA in catch-and-shoot efficiency as a sophomore. Despite his ability to knock down deep step-backs at UCLA, Ball still faced questions about his shooting consistency, which showed up during his rookie season. Haliburton still has to prove himself as a pull-up shooter, but it's easier to see him shooting around 40% from distance early in his NBA career.
In fact, Pelton said that Haliburton has the 18th-best projected shooting rating (which incorporates 3P%, 3PA rate and FT%) among all point guards using his model. Current NBA stars Trae Young and Jamal Murray are the two guys who were younger than him in that group.
Sure, he will never be as powerful as Georgia's Anthony Edwards or as creative as LaMelo Ball, but based on what he showed at Impact, he's stronger and starting to look more comfortable shooting off the dribble when under duress. Overanalyzing Haliburton's unorthodox game could lead scouts to miss some of the factors that make him such an impactful player on and off the court.
"Everybody's like, 'He has a high floor, he's probably the safest pick in the draft,' which I agree with but low ceiling is a tough comment to make I think," Haliburton said. "We'll revisit it in a couple years and see what that ceiling really is."
A perfect fit with Golden State?
Haliburton could be an ideal long-term fit with the Golden State Warriors, especially if they decide to trade back a few spots from No. 2.
Going to Golden State would allow Haliburton to play to his strengths as a rookie. Having great players around him also makes some of his shortcomings less pronounced, alleviating pressure to quarterback an entire offense.
Like we've seen with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alongside Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder in OKC, multi-guard lineups have plenty of upside. And Haliburton doesn't need volume to have a major impact.
"I think I'm a really good fit there," Haliburton said. "I think I can obviously come in and make shots as well and be in the first unit or lead the second unit."
Very few rookies in this class are going to come in and significantly contribute to another Warriors title run. But Haliburton can fit the culture and help right now with his shooting and feel while being groomed as the point guard of the future as Curry ages.
"The kid's a winner, bottom line," Kane said.
Scouting more 2020 PGs
I also saw a handful of other point guard prospects on a recent workout tour in California and Las Vegas. (I only made it out to driveable locations, so there aren't updates on LaMelo Ball, Cole Anthony, Killian Hayes, Kira Lewis, Nico Mannion and Cassius Winston, among others).
Here's what I learned:
Tre Jones finally at full strength
The typical pre-draft process is full of specious claims that prospects have added new skills or increased athleticism. But given the seven-month gap since the NCAA season was halted in March, this year is a bit different, with prospects having plenty of time to get healthy or improve.
Duke guard Tre Jones had surgery on one hip going into his freshman season and the same surgery on the other going into his sophomore season, limiting him athletically at times and taking away major opportunities to develop in the offseason.
"I could tell [how limiting it was] in all areas really," Jones said. "If it was on defense and I was shuffling, I could feel it there. Running straight forward I could feel it. Jumping, obviously, I could feel it. All movements I was doing I could feel some limitations there.
"Just being able to be 100%, being able to have my full range of motion, being able to work on everything without any pain day to day is just amazing."
Jones certainly looked more explosive going through a full 1-on-0 workout. According to P3 Sports Science data, Jones set a facility record on the five-yard slide test, where the athlete does a defensive slide for five yards before sliding back to the starting line. The 2020 ACC Defensive Player of the Year has a lateral acceleration that is 15% above average for an NBA athlete.
On a vertical plane, Jones is also a standout, finishing in the top five over the past decade in the drop jump, leaping off an 18-inch box and immediately jumping 35 inches into the air.
It's Jones' shooting that will ultimately dictate his long-term upside at the highest level, but to see him pop athletically is noteworthy.
Devon Dotson: 'I'm a winner at the highest level'
Potential first-rounder Devon Dotson missed only one game over the past two seasons, logging just under 2,200 minutes in 65 games and helping lead Kansas to a 53-13 record.
"I'm a winner at the highest level," Dotson said. "That's a big part of it. Having those intangibles and what it takes to win and what it takes to run a team at a high level."
Although his 3-point percentage dipped from 36% to 30% last season, Dotson was one of only two players in the NCAA to average at least 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per game, and he did so as the catalyst for a 27-3 Kansas team.
Scouts and executives consider him arguably the fastest guard in the draft with a strong, compact frame and the quicks to be a disruptor defensively. He's playing above the rim quite regularly in drill work, and he continues to make strides as a perimeter shooter off the dribble and the catch. While there is no shortage of point guards in this class, Dotson enters the draft with proven experience on his side.
"Being in [Kansas] practice every day, being in that environment, that culture -- [coach Bill] Self, he sets his guards up to a high standard," Dotson said. "He brings the best out of them. It takes a lot to win. We know that and we know what it takes to win coming from that program."
Malachi Flynn opening eyes in Vegas
SDSU's Malachi Flynn has continued to gain momentum as a popular draft-day sleeper, and it was easy to see why in skill work and 3-on-3 scrimmages in Las Vegas. He has great footwork and range on pick-and-roll pull-ups, and he is comfortable playing out of handoffs. He makes virtually every ball-screen read and brings toughness on defense.
"I love his game," Washington State wing and fellow draft prospect CJ Elleby said. "Just the way he plays. He has a wiggle to him, a flow ... his shot is so pure, and he's just a super talented player."
The 2020 Mountain West Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, Flynn brings an NBA-ready game at 22 years old that's ideally suited for today's style of play with his shotmaking, toughness and feel.
"Just the style of play in the NBA, it's definitely different from college," Flynn said. "I think there's a lot more space. I feel like I'll be able to do well in that with a lot more space. You look in the playoffs, Tyler Herro having great games just by shooting the ball. Duncan Robinson has been huge for the Heat. Just guys like that, it shows that it's a skilled league."
Grant Riller: The draft's most accomplished scorer
Grant Riller is arguably the most intriguing mid-major prospect in the draft, with a smooth game and big resume coming out of Charleston. The 6-3 Riller has been one of the NCAA's most electric scorers over the past two seasons, averaging more than 21 points per game and finishing with the highest player efficiency rating among guards as a senior (30.
I got a first-hand look at Riller during a 1-on-0 workout in L.A. to get a feel for how he is shooting the ball after cashing in on 36% of his triples as a senior and 33% as a junior. Riller's shotmaking ability has translated well to the NBA line, at least in an uncontested setting.
"In the past I feel like my mechanics haven't always been the best, starting with my feet," Riller said. "But working with [my trainer], he's kind of given me a few tips, just on my feet and my base. But since then I've gotten more comfortable."
On top of daily on-court and strength workouts, the 23-year-old guard said he has spent the past few months studying NBA guards, particularly Oklahoma City's Schroder.
"I think we share a lot of qualities," Riller said. "A quick guard that gets downhill, can score at all three levels, is good in the pick-and-roll. Pretty savvy defender. More importantly he plays both guard spots. He's a little undersized at the 2 but at the same time he can be out there with CP3 or he can be running the point."
Love it. As long as your team already has a playmaking guard or wing in place, he's going to be an elite complement to them. Would be a perfect fit in Minnesota, Golden State, Atlanta, Washington, or Phoenix. I'd be ecstatic if the Celtics were able to trade up and make a move for him. Might be the best shooter in the draft, who is also an elite passer, and high level team defender.
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He’ll go too high. But his skill set and body type’s a great profile for a Luka PG.
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So...unless something changes with the rules. He, Emoni, and Chet Holmgren will all be 2022.
We've officially reached the unicorn era
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Big fan of Xavier Tillman as a small ball five in the 2nd round.
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Raptors or Celtics definitely taking him at the end of the 1st. He does a lot of what Theis does. Would be a good long term replacement.
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Aaron Nesmith is gonna go lower than he should. Could be the best shooter in the class
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around where I think he SHOULD go. Him and Terry are probably at the top as far as shooting goes for me.
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Terry's size really scares me. Don't care that he apparently grew in the last couple months.
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Empty gym season
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Okongwu and Bane to the Cs? Only have to give up a pick and Tremont? Where can I sign up?!?!??
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