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2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
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What the hell is this free throw rule? 
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What the hell is this free throw rule?
1 for 2 or 1 for 3. It keeps the game moving. They do it here in Dallas for high school summer league games.
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Didn't know my guy Amir Johnson was on this team too 
dacomeup
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Yea, I haven’t seen him mentioned as a generational guy anywhere. He’s just a really good and well rounded prospect.
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Feel like Jalen Green reminds me of a 6'5" Brandon Ingram.
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Are these G league games on tv?
jpzx
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Yeah I've seen NBATV has several of them with Green/Kuminga.
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Moves and his playing style is like Malik Monk but taller to me
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Brownstone
yes sir, as some has mentioned ESPN2/ESPNU has carried games, as well as the ESPN+ app. Ignite's G-League Quarterfinal game is today is on ESPN2.
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Think I prefer Green to Suggs.
jpzx
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Colbey Ross on Pepperdine trying to make this WCC Tournament his 2nd round pick device
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Is that a hot take? I think both are going to be good pros.
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I'm pretty sure son was on the "Suggs is the best player in the draft" kick after 3 games...which I honestly thought was kind of an absurd take going around.
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What we learned in the G League bubble: Ignite's playoff run and the NBA's assignment players
The 2021 NBA G League playoffs will continue Tuesday night in Orlando, with the No. 6 seed Lakeland Magic taking on the No. 2 seed Santa Cruz Warriors (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU) and the top-seeded Raptors 905 playing the No. 4 seed Delaware Blue Coats (9:15 p.m. ET, ESPNU). In Monday's quarterfinals, Raptors 905 defeated the G League Ignite squad, a team featuring four members of the G League's new Pathway program -- Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green, Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd -- who are all eligible for the 2021 NBA draft.
With NBA evaluators focused on the G League this week during the NBA's hiatus, we looked at the meaning of G League Ignite's early success, the draft picks-to-be who helped themselves most with late flourishes, while also taking a look at some of the former draft picks on NBA assignment who either made the most of their G League experiences or raised questions with their play. The NBA G League playoffs will be completed Thursday afternoon with the championship from Orlando airing at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
How it ended for Ignite: Kuminga out, Todd up, Nix down
G League Ignite recovered from a late-season slide to win its final game and clinch a playoff spot, a significant accomplishment for a team that started the season in December by losing two games to G League backups by a combined 32 points. The fact that three of the four draft prospects were able to get the experience of a playoff game against the No. 1 seed Raptors 905 and their half-dozen former or current NBA players was icing on the cake and should prove beneficial for their long-term growth.
Projected top-five pick Jonathan Kuminga elected not to play in the team's final three games due to soreness in his knee, which opened the door for big man Isaiah Todd to start and finish the season on a strong note. Todd posted 25 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists in the regular-season finale, all season highs.
Todd's skill level was on full display down the stretch -- his ability to step into pick-and-pop 3-pointers, space the floor from the corners or elevate smoothly out of midrange spots is certainly intriguing for his size. Todd was also active defensively and found easy baskets running the floor in transition or crashing the offensive glass.
Todd has his fair share of fans among NBA teams who now consider him a real first-round prospect, a significant improvement from where he started the year. The free-flowing, wide-open nature of the G League obviously fits his strengths and style of play, and there's no doubt that he made real improvement on both ends of the floor in his time in the program.
Point guard Daishen Nix also got to start the final three games and benefited from an expanded role down the stretch but didn't find the same success as Todd. He really struggled to score on the season as a whole (47% from 2, 20% from 3, 49% true shooting percentage) and had a challenging time on the defensive end, as well where his poor intensity, conditioning and lateral quickness exposed him at times on that end of the floor.
Nix's size, strength and basketball instincts still give him a chance to find a niche at the NBA level, but he's looking more like a second-round pick than the potential lottery pick that was once his projection. Some scouts like the potential he shows manipulating ball screens and picking apart defenses in the open court, as the vision and creativity he demonstrates with the ball in his hands are some of the best of any guard in this draft. His struggles shooting from outside are something he'll have to overcome during the pre-draft process, and he'll also have to get in much better shape.
NBA teams we spoke with say they gained a lot of respect for Jalen Green, who elected to finish the season strong rather than choosing to sit out the home stretch like his teammate Kuminga did. Green cemented his status as a top-five pick with his play in the bubble and has some evaluators saying they would give him strong consideration at No. 1 depending on how the lottery shakes out. Green's combination of explosiveness and shot-making ability, combined with the growth he showed as a playmaker and defender, give him All-Star potential long-term, even if his slight frame means he probably won't be as NBA-ready from day one, as Cade Cunningham and Jonathan Kuminga will. He was especially impressive in the playoffs, posting 30 points, 7 assists and 3 steals against the best team in the G League.
The 2021 NBA G League playoffs will continue Tuesday night in Orlando, with the No. 6 seed Lakeland Magic taking on the No. 2 seed Santa Cruz Warriors (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU) and the top-seeded Raptors 905 playing the No. 4 seed Delaware Blue Coats (9:15 p.m. ET, ESPNU). In Monday's quarterfinals, Raptors 905 defeated the G League Ignite squad, a team featuring four members of the G League's new Pathway program -- Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green, Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd -- who are all eligible for the 2021 NBA draft.
With NBA evaluators focused on the G League this week during the NBA's hiatus, we looked at the meaning of G League Ignite's early success, the draft picks-to-be who helped themselves most with late flourishes, while also taking a look at some of the former draft picks on NBA assignment who either made the most of their G League experiences or raised questions with their play. The NBA G League playoffs will be completed Thursday afternoon with the championship from Orlando airing at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
How it ended for Ignite: Kuminga out, Todd up, Nix down
G League Ignite recovered from a late-season slide to win its final game and clinch a playoff spot, a significant accomplishment for a team that started the season in December by losing two games to G League backups by a combined 32 points. The fact that three of the four draft prospects were able to get the experience of a playoff game against the No. 1 seed Raptors 905 and their half-dozen former or current NBA players was icing on the cake and should prove beneficial for their long-term growth.
Projected top-five pick Jonathan Kuminga elected not to play in the team's final three games due to soreness in his knee, which opened the door for big man Isaiah Todd to start and finish the season on a strong note. Todd posted 25 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists in the regular-season finale, all season highs.
Todd's skill level was on full display down the stretch -- his ability to step into pick-and-pop 3-pointers, space the floor from the corners or elevate smoothly out of midrange spots is certainly intriguing for his size. Todd was also active defensively and found easy baskets running the floor in transition or crashing the offensive glass.
Todd has his fair share of fans among NBA teams who now consider him a real first-round prospect, a significant improvement from where he started the year. The free-flowing, wide-open nature of the G League obviously fits his strengths and style of play, and there's no doubt that he made real improvement on both ends of the floor in his time in the program.
Point guard Daishen Nix also got to start the final three games and benefited from an expanded role down the stretch but didn't find the same success as Todd. He really struggled to score on the season as a whole (47% from 2, 20% from 3, 49% true shooting percentage) and had a challenging time on the defensive end, as well where his poor intensity, conditioning and lateral quickness exposed him at times on that end of the floor.
Nix's size, strength and basketball instincts still give him a chance to find a niche at the NBA level, but he's looking more like a second-round pick than the potential lottery pick that was once his projection. Some scouts like the potential he shows manipulating ball screens and picking apart defenses in the open court, as the vision and creativity he demonstrates with the ball in his hands are some of the best of any guard in this draft. His struggles shooting from outside are something he'll have to overcome during the pre-draft process, and he'll also have to get in much better shape.
NBA teams we spoke with say they gained a lot of respect for Jalen Green, who elected to finish the season strong rather than choosing to sit out the home stretch like his teammate Kuminga did. Green cemented his status as a top-five pick with his play in the bubble and has some evaluators saying they would give him strong consideration at No. 1 depending on how the lottery shakes out. Green's combination of explosiveness and shot-making ability, combined with the growth he showed as a playmaker and defender, give him All-Star potential long-term, even if his slight frame means he probably won't be as NBA-ready from day one, as Cade Cunningham and Jonathan Kuminga will. He was especially impressive in the playoffs, posting 30 points, 7 assists and 3 steals against the best team in the G League.
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big j 33
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I like Kuminga mostly cause he was a stud for one if my 2k franchises.
I'm really loving what I've seen from Mobley, I think Cade is the pick but Mobley looks really special.
I'm really loving what I've seen from Mobley, I think Cade is the pick but Mobley looks really special.
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Jalen Green looks good to me. High volume three point shooter on good percentages from the NBA line. 5.7 attempts on .365% He looks to be the real deal can shoot off the bounce and is an elite athlete. Isnt totally lost as a facilitator and defender. Gives me Zach Lavine vibes on how smooth and agile he moves same physical profile too.
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Big NBA draft questions: Ranking the top five stars, Top 100 risers
What's the latest in the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft?
A clear top five has emerged, including Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham, Southern California's Evan Mobley, the G League Ignite's Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, and Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs. But how would our experts and NBA decision-makers rank that group?
With the G League season wrapping up and college conference tournament play beginning, our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton answer the latest big draft questions, including prospect rankings, statistical projections, changes to our Top 100 draft prospect rankings and who has the most at stake this weekend.
How would you rank the top five prospects?
Schmitz: I've got:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley
3. Jalen Green
4. Jonathan Kuminga
5. Jalen Suggs
Cunningham is the clear No. 1 prospect. He has answered every question NBA scouts could have had coming into his freshman campaign.
Can he make enough shots from the perimeter to keep defenses honest? He is knocking down two 3s a game at 43% to go along with 85% of his free throws. Can he create high percentage offense against NBA-caliber defenders? He ranks first in the NCAA in isolation efficiency, routinely creating space into deep step-back jumpers while also owning the mid post. Can he turn an average Oklahoma State roster into a winner? The Cowboys are a projected 4-seed in the NCAA tournament.
Sure, he can ramp up his defensive intensity, and he badly needs to clean up his turnover issues; but to me, Cunningham is a no-brainer at the top. You can see some type of Luka Doncic-Jayson Tatum hybrid with shades of Khris Middleton -- an outcome every NBA general manager in the league would gladly welcome.
Green has certainly made a case for himself as high as No. 2 with his outstanding 16-game season in the G-League bubble. The decision between Green and Mobley is the toughest one here. Green has real starpower and could lead the league in scoring one day with his off-the-dribble shot-making and dynamic abilities at 6-foot-6. If you're a franchise in need of an exciting perimeter shot-creator, Green is the pick.
But I still give Mobley the slight edge because he is a little more unique. The NBA has no shortage of elite perimeter scorers in the backcourt. Mobley's defensive versatility, shooting potential and ability to handle and pass at 7 feet tall is harder to find. Although he shouldn't be drafted to lead your team in scoring, he is truly just scratching the surface of what he could become. At his ceiling, he could resemble something between Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh.
Kuminga is the most physically impressive prospect in the draft -- strong, quick and explosive at 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan -- and much more advanced of a shot-creator than similar top picks in Patrick Williams and De'Andre Hunter. Then there's Suggs, a clear winner who is arguably the best player on the best team in the country thanks to his toughness and all-around feel for the game.
Outside of Cunningham, the rest of the top five really comes down to positional preference and need. In search of a dynamic scorer? Green. Want a rangy two-way big with a modern skill set? Mobley. Need a versatile combo forward with two-way potential? Kuminga. Hoping for a tough combo guard who can change the culture of your organization from day one? Suggs.
Givony: I agree with Schmitz for the most part, outside of some nitpicking at the end:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley
3. Jalen Green
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Jonathan Kuminga
I think it's important to say right off the bat that the top five of this class is pretty spectacular -- definitely one of the best I've seen in my nearly 20 years of covering the draft. I have to think any team would be happy landing anywhere in this range.
Cunningham is as obvious a No. 1 guy for me as LaMelo Ball was last year. There's really not much more to say at this point, and it's highly unlikely NBA teams will miss out on Cunningham's no-brainer status like they did with Ball.
I do think there are a number of NBA front offices that would have Kuminga as high as No. 2 and Green closer to No. 4 or No. 5, based on the feedback I've received so far. However, I'll be curious to see how NBA teams adjust their thinking after going through the tape of the final two weeks of the G League season.
A majority of NBA teams sent executives to watch the beginning of G League play, getting ahead of any injuries or withdrawals and knowing they could go back and watch film later on. This intel is primarily based on how overwhelmingly impressive Kuminga was early on as compared to some of Green's struggles. Kuminga's decision to shut down his season while Green pushed through, made impressive strides and posted his best performance of the season against the No. 1 seed Raptors 905 counts for a lot in my eyes.
I personally have zero doubts about Kuminga's talent or physical readiness to play a role in the NBA immediately. My main concerns are similar to the ones I had about Anthony Edwards last year: the intel about his approach to the game, how likely he is to reach his sky-high potential and how much he will contribute to winning due to his iso-heavy style of play. Kuminga's pace reminds me of a bigger DeMar DeRozan. He has a chance to be a much better defender thanks to his superior tools, but like Edwards, I have some doubts about Kuminga's approach to the game and defensive buy-in.
I agree with Schmitz on Green, Mobley and fit playing a big factor in determining whomever goes No. 2 behind Cunningham. Both Green and Mobley have clear star potential, but some of the losing teams at the top of the lottery could pause before selecting them since their bodies might need some time to reach an NBA level.
But these rankings aren't set in stone. According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, we haven't seen Gonzaga play a top-25 opponent this calendar year. That's about to change in the next few weeks, as Suggs embarks on a national championship run that will likely pit him against some of the best point guards in college basketball.
Suggs showed his value in the WCC tournament title game on Tuesday night by completely taking over on both ends of the floor on the way to victory. If Suggs carries Gonzaga to a deep tourney run with more games like that, I don't think you can put a ceiling on how high he goes. He will certainly be in the mix for the top three just because of his toughness, feel and well-rounded game.
How do the top five prospects project statistically?
Pelton: Here's a first look at my consensus draft model for 2021 that incorporates both a prospect's stats and his top 100 ranking, which tends to produce better projections.
1. Cade Cunningham | 1.4 stats-only projected WARP | 2.9 consensus
In terms of my stats-only projections, Cunningham is fourth among this group, but it's close enough that his No. 1 ranking in the top 100 lifts him to the best projection when it's factored in. There's still a lot to like about Cunningham's stat line at Oklahoma State. He doesn't project in the bottom 25% of NBA-bound point guards in any of the skill-based stats I use to determine strengths and weaknesses.
2. Jonathan Kuminga | 2.4 stats-only projected WARP | 2.9 consensus
Along with his Ignite teammate Jalen Green, Kuminga is projected solely based on his G League stats, as opposed to the college projections that also include performance in the Nike EYBL AAU competition.
The biggest point in Kuminga's favor statistically is his youth: He won't turn 19 until October, making him the youngest American prospect in the top 100. In that context, Kuminga leading Ignite in usage rate is impressive. However, he'll have to improve his 3-point shooting to make good on this projection, which assumes substantial regression to the mean from his actual 25% accuracy. Kuminga's 62.5% foul shooting isn't encouraging in that regard.
3. Jalen Green | 2.0 stats-only projected WARP | 2.8 consensus
Statistically, Green was easily Ignite's most valuable player this season, scoring more efficiently than Kuminga. His 36.5% 3-point shooting on 5.7 attempts per game was particularly impressive given it came from the NBA 3-point line rather than the shorter college line. He could stand to make more of an impact on the game defensively, including improving a below-average defensive rebound rate.
4. Jalen Suggs | 2.2 stats-only projected WARP | 2.6 consensus
From a statistical perspective, Suggs' strong steal rate is his best attribute and the key factor differentiating his performance as a freshman from Cunningham's. Suggs' 3.8 steals per 100 possessions is substantially better than Cunningham's 2.2 mark. That reflects Suggs' feel for the game, as he reads plays defensively more like a safety rather than the quarterback he actually was as a top football prospect. Watching Suggs play, he reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy.
5. Evan Mobley | 0.8 stats-only projected WARP | 2.2 consensus
Mobley's relatively low stats-only projection can be attributed to the adjustment I made to incorporate replacement level by position starting in 2018. As a result, the standards for production at center are much higher than on the perimeter. I suspect Mobley can beat that projection because of the breadth of his contributions. The focus on his versatility almost undersells how effective Mobley can be protecting the rim, a skill that's still valued for centers. With Mobley and his older brother (6-foot-10 Isaiah Mobley) patrolling the paint, opponents have hit just 42% of their 2-point attempts against USC, the nation's third-lowest mark.
What are the big top 100 changes?
Givony: A lot has changed over the past five weeks since our last full Top 100 update, with prospects getting closer to a reasonable sample size of games.
Let's recap the biggest risers and fallers:
Rising
Isaiah Jackson (15 to
Franz Wagner (20 to 12)
Ayo Dosunmu (35 to 19)
Jaden Springer (39 to 20)
Tre Mann (32 to 23)
Chris Duarte (57 to 30)
Aaron Henry (55 to 31)
Santi Aldama (unranked to 39)
RaiQuan Gray (unranked to 41)
Isaiah Livers (50 to 42)
Isaiah Todd (unranked to 43)
Gabriele Procida (unranked to 51)
Falling
Jalen Johnson (6 to 9)
Ziaire Williams (8 to 24)
Sharife Cooper (9 to 16)
David Johnson (19 to 55)
Josh Christopher (24 to 35)
Brandon Boston Jr. (26 to 34)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (34 to 57)
Terrence Clarke (44 to 62)
Scottie Lewis (54 to 85)
Yves Pons (60 to 79)
You can find the full rankings here.
Who has the most at stake in the conference tournaments?
Schmitz: This conference tournament season holds more significance than any in recent memory because of the limited number of in-person evaluations that executives have had up until this point. I've still seen some high-level executives on the road during the college season, but the majority of them opted to remain with their NBA teams, not wanting to lose tier-1 status by entering a college gym. But more and more top execs are finally hitting the road to Las Vegas (WCC and Pac-12 tourneys), Nashville (SEC) and Kansas City (Big 12) to get what might be their first live look at the one-and-done prospects.
That puts some level of pressure on a player such as Mobley, who hasn't been quite as prolific as Cunningham, hasn't been live scouted as much as Green or Kuminga and hasn't had nonconference performances like those of Suggs. Mobley has cooled off a bit over his past five games, averaging just 11.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks on 53.8% true shooting with USC going 3-2 during that stretch. If Mobley plays with aggression offensively, continues to impact the game defensively and helps lead the Trojans to a conference championship, that would go a long way in solidifying his standing as the No. 2 overall prospect.
But the top five feels fairly set at this point. There's more at stake for one-and-done prospects who haven't had standout seasons and might miss the NCAA tournament, as more execs are planning on live scouting the Big Dance than I can remember. Players such as Kentucky's Brandon Boston Jr. and Stanford's Ziaire Williams come to mind. Both came to college with big reputations out of Sierra Canyon School in Chatsworth, California. Yet the lanky wings have struggled mightily, posting true shooting percentages under 50% while having issues impacting winning with consistency.
Boston is coming off arguably his best game of the season in a blowout win over South Carolina (21 points, 6-for-10 from 3) in which he showed the shot-making prowess that made him highly touted out of high school. But with Kentucky likely to miss out on the NCAA tournament, he needs a stellar SEC tournament to prove that he is worthy of a first-round selection. The same goes for Williams. Although springy at 6-foot-8 with shot-making potential, Williams really struggled in front of a host of NBA scouts and executives at USC on March 3 en route to a two-point, two-rebound performance on eight shots.
Normally, teams would be able to rely on their pre-NCAA evaluations of prospects such as Williams and Boston, but with no high school All-Star events, they don't have that reference point, making these conference tournaments that much more meaningful. You could make the same argument for fringe first-rounders such as Josh Christopher, Marcus Bagley and Day'Ron Sharpe. The door is open for more productive one-and-dones in Moses Moody, Keon Johnson, Isaiah Jackson and Scottie Barnes to prove themselves as top-10 picks with standout performances this week.
Givony: Mid-major prospects have so much at stake in conference tournaments because of the nature of their schedules. For many, getting into the NCAA tournament is the best way to be evaluated against other NBA prospects at their positions.
For some NBA scouts, seeing big stats in smaller leagues don't mean much until they are validated by doing the same against top competition.
Take Santi Aldama from Loyola Maryland as an example. After missing almost all of his freshman year with an injury, his team has played only 15 games this season, none of which were against teams ranked among the top 150 in college basketball. His conference played all games behind closed doors and did not allow NBA scouts into buildings to evaluate prospects live. After surprisingly upsetting then 15-2 Navy in the opening round of the Patriot League tournament, Loyola is now only two wins away from reaching the NCAA tournament. For a player with first-round draft aspirations like Aldama, whose skill set and productivity certainly warrants the attention, making the NCAA tournament could be the difference between going pro or returning to school for another year.
This time of year is also important for players who missed a chunk of the season due to injury.
UConn's James Bouknight suffered an elbow injury in early January that caused him to miss almost six weeks of action. He has only faced one sure NCAA tournament team since December -- a tough Villanova squad that gave him some real problems. NBA scouts I talk to love his talent but sound skeptical about his role and potential at the next level. Is he a bona fide star who can shoulder significant offense and make those around him better? Or is he more of an off-the-bench spark plug who primarily looks for his own? His defense and passing ability are real questions for some. The Big East tournament is wide open, so taking UConn on a run and continuing to play well as the competition stiffens in the NCAA tournament will be important if Bouknight wants to establish himself in the Nos. 6-10 range of the draft as opposed to the late lottery.
What's the latest in the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft?
A clear top five has emerged, including Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham, Southern California's Evan Mobley, the G League Ignite's Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, and Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs. But how would our experts and NBA decision-makers rank that group?
With the G League season wrapping up and college conference tournament play beginning, our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton answer the latest big draft questions, including prospect rankings, statistical projections, changes to our Top 100 draft prospect rankings and who has the most at stake this weekend.
How would you rank the top five prospects?
Schmitz: I've got:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley
3. Jalen Green
4. Jonathan Kuminga
5. Jalen Suggs
Cunningham is the clear No. 1 prospect. He has answered every question NBA scouts could have had coming into his freshman campaign.
Can he make enough shots from the perimeter to keep defenses honest? He is knocking down two 3s a game at 43% to go along with 85% of his free throws. Can he create high percentage offense against NBA-caliber defenders? He ranks first in the NCAA in isolation efficiency, routinely creating space into deep step-back jumpers while also owning the mid post. Can he turn an average Oklahoma State roster into a winner? The Cowboys are a projected 4-seed in the NCAA tournament.
Sure, he can ramp up his defensive intensity, and he badly needs to clean up his turnover issues; but to me, Cunningham is a no-brainer at the top. You can see some type of Luka Doncic-Jayson Tatum hybrid with shades of Khris Middleton -- an outcome every NBA general manager in the league would gladly welcome.
Green has certainly made a case for himself as high as No. 2 with his outstanding 16-game season in the G-League bubble. The decision between Green and Mobley is the toughest one here. Green has real starpower and could lead the league in scoring one day with his off-the-dribble shot-making and dynamic abilities at 6-foot-6. If you're a franchise in need of an exciting perimeter shot-creator, Green is the pick.
But I still give Mobley the slight edge because he is a little more unique. The NBA has no shortage of elite perimeter scorers in the backcourt. Mobley's defensive versatility, shooting potential and ability to handle and pass at 7 feet tall is harder to find. Although he shouldn't be drafted to lead your team in scoring, he is truly just scratching the surface of what he could become. At his ceiling, he could resemble something between Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh.
Kuminga is the most physically impressive prospect in the draft -- strong, quick and explosive at 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan -- and much more advanced of a shot-creator than similar top picks in Patrick Williams and De'Andre Hunter. Then there's Suggs, a clear winner who is arguably the best player on the best team in the country thanks to his toughness and all-around feel for the game.
Outside of Cunningham, the rest of the top five really comes down to positional preference and need. In search of a dynamic scorer? Green. Want a rangy two-way big with a modern skill set? Mobley. Need a versatile combo forward with two-way potential? Kuminga. Hoping for a tough combo guard who can change the culture of your organization from day one? Suggs.
Givony: I agree with Schmitz for the most part, outside of some nitpicking at the end:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley
3. Jalen Green
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Jonathan Kuminga
I think it's important to say right off the bat that the top five of this class is pretty spectacular -- definitely one of the best I've seen in my nearly 20 years of covering the draft. I have to think any team would be happy landing anywhere in this range.
Cunningham is as obvious a No. 1 guy for me as LaMelo Ball was last year. There's really not much more to say at this point, and it's highly unlikely NBA teams will miss out on Cunningham's no-brainer status like they did with Ball.
I do think there are a number of NBA front offices that would have Kuminga as high as No. 2 and Green closer to No. 4 or No. 5, based on the feedback I've received so far. However, I'll be curious to see how NBA teams adjust their thinking after going through the tape of the final two weeks of the G League season.
A majority of NBA teams sent executives to watch the beginning of G League play, getting ahead of any injuries or withdrawals and knowing they could go back and watch film later on. This intel is primarily based on how overwhelmingly impressive Kuminga was early on as compared to some of Green's struggles. Kuminga's decision to shut down his season while Green pushed through, made impressive strides and posted his best performance of the season against the No. 1 seed Raptors 905 counts for a lot in my eyes.
I personally have zero doubts about Kuminga's talent or physical readiness to play a role in the NBA immediately. My main concerns are similar to the ones I had about Anthony Edwards last year: the intel about his approach to the game, how likely he is to reach his sky-high potential and how much he will contribute to winning due to his iso-heavy style of play. Kuminga's pace reminds me of a bigger DeMar DeRozan. He has a chance to be a much better defender thanks to his superior tools, but like Edwards, I have some doubts about Kuminga's approach to the game and defensive buy-in.
I agree with Schmitz on Green, Mobley and fit playing a big factor in determining whomever goes No. 2 behind Cunningham. Both Green and Mobley have clear star potential, but some of the losing teams at the top of the lottery could pause before selecting them since their bodies might need some time to reach an NBA level.
But these rankings aren't set in stone. According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, we haven't seen Gonzaga play a top-25 opponent this calendar year. That's about to change in the next few weeks, as Suggs embarks on a national championship run that will likely pit him against some of the best point guards in college basketball.
Suggs showed his value in the WCC tournament title game on Tuesday night by completely taking over on both ends of the floor on the way to victory. If Suggs carries Gonzaga to a deep tourney run with more games like that, I don't think you can put a ceiling on how high he goes. He will certainly be in the mix for the top three just because of his toughness, feel and well-rounded game.
How do the top five prospects project statistically?
Pelton: Here's a first look at my consensus draft model for 2021 that incorporates both a prospect's stats and his top 100 ranking, which tends to produce better projections.
1. Cade Cunningham | 1.4 stats-only projected WARP | 2.9 consensus
In terms of my stats-only projections, Cunningham is fourth among this group, but it's close enough that his No. 1 ranking in the top 100 lifts him to the best projection when it's factored in. There's still a lot to like about Cunningham's stat line at Oklahoma State. He doesn't project in the bottom 25% of NBA-bound point guards in any of the skill-based stats I use to determine strengths and weaknesses.
2. Jonathan Kuminga | 2.4 stats-only projected WARP | 2.9 consensus
Along with his Ignite teammate Jalen Green, Kuminga is projected solely based on his G League stats, as opposed to the college projections that also include performance in the Nike EYBL AAU competition.
The biggest point in Kuminga's favor statistically is his youth: He won't turn 19 until October, making him the youngest American prospect in the top 100. In that context, Kuminga leading Ignite in usage rate is impressive. However, he'll have to improve his 3-point shooting to make good on this projection, which assumes substantial regression to the mean from his actual 25% accuracy. Kuminga's 62.5% foul shooting isn't encouraging in that regard.
3. Jalen Green | 2.0 stats-only projected WARP | 2.8 consensus
Statistically, Green was easily Ignite's most valuable player this season, scoring more efficiently than Kuminga. His 36.5% 3-point shooting on 5.7 attempts per game was particularly impressive given it came from the NBA 3-point line rather than the shorter college line. He could stand to make more of an impact on the game defensively, including improving a below-average defensive rebound rate.
4. Jalen Suggs | 2.2 stats-only projected WARP | 2.6 consensus
From a statistical perspective, Suggs' strong steal rate is his best attribute and the key factor differentiating his performance as a freshman from Cunningham's. Suggs' 3.8 steals per 100 possessions is substantially better than Cunningham's 2.2 mark. That reflects Suggs' feel for the game, as he reads plays defensively more like a safety rather than the quarterback he actually was as a top football prospect. Watching Suggs play, he reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy.
5. Evan Mobley | 0.8 stats-only projected WARP | 2.2 consensus
Mobley's relatively low stats-only projection can be attributed to the adjustment I made to incorporate replacement level by position starting in 2018. As a result, the standards for production at center are much higher than on the perimeter. I suspect Mobley can beat that projection because of the breadth of his contributions. The focus on his versatility almost undersells how effective Mobley can be protecting the rim, a skill that's still valued for centers. With Mobley and his older brother (6-foot-10 Isaiah Mobley) patrolling the paint, opponents have hit just 42% of their 2-point attempts against USC, the nation's third-lowest mark.
What are the big top 100 changes?
Givony: A lot has changed over the past five weeks since our last full Top 100 update, with prospects getting closer to a reasonable sample size of games.
Let's recap the biggest risers and fallers:
Rising
Isaiah Jackson (15 to
Franz Wagner (20 to 12)
Ayo Dosunmu (35 to 19)
Jaden Springer (39 to 20)
Tre Mann (32 to 23)
Chris Duarte (57 to 30)
Aaron Henry (55 to 31)
Santi Aldama (unranked to 39)
RaiQuan Gray (unranked to 41)
Isaiah Livers (50 to 42)
Isaiah Todd (unranked to 43)
Gabriele Procida (unranked to 51)
Falling
Jalen Johnson (6 to 9)
Ziaire Williams (8 to 24)
Sharife Cooper (9 to 16)
David Johnson (19 to 55)
Josh Christopher (24 to 35)
Brandon Boston Jr. (26 to 34)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (34 to 57)
Terrence Clarke (44 to 62)
Scottie Lewis (54 to 85)
Yves Pons (60 to 79)
You can find the full rankings here.
Who has the most at stake in the conference tournaments?
Schmitz: This conference tournament season holds more significance than any in recent memory because of the limited number of in-person evaluations that executives have had up until this point. I've still seen some high-level executives on the road during the college season, but the majority of them opted to remain with their NBA teams, not wanting to lose tier-1 status by entering a college gym. But more and more top execs are finally hitting the road to Las Vegas (WCC and Pac-12 tourneys), Nashville (SEC) and Kansas City (Big 12) to get what might be their first live look at the one-and-done prospects.
That puts some level of pressure on a player such as Mobley, who hasn't been quite as prolific as Cunningham, hasn't been live scouted as much as Green or Kuminga and hasn't had nonconference performances like those of Suggs. Mobley has cooled off a bit over his past five games, averaging just 11.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks on 53.8% true shooting with USC going 3-2 during that stretch. If Mobley plays with aggression offensively, continues to impact the game defensively and helps lead the Trojans to a conference championship, that would go a long way in solidifying his standing as the No. 2 overall prospect.
But the top five feels fairly set at this point. There's more at stake for one-and-done prospects who haven't had standout seasons and might miss the NCAA tournament, as more execs are planning on live scouting the Big Dance than I can remember. Players such as Kentucky's Brandon Boston Jr. and Stanford's Ziaire Williams come to mind. Both came to college with big reputations out of Sierra Canyon School in Chatsworth, California. Yet the lanky wings have struggled mightily, posting true shooting percentages under 50% while having issues impacting winning with consistency.
Boston is coming off arguably his best game of the season in a blowout win over South Carolina (21 points, 6-for-10 from 3) in which he showed the shot-making prowess that made him highly touted out of high school. But with Kentucky likely to miss out on the NCAA tournament, he needs a stellar SEC tournament to prove that he is worthy of a first-round selection. The same goes for Williams. Although springy at 6-foot-8 with shot-making potential, Williams really struggled in front of a host of NBA scouts and executives at USC on March 3 en route to a two-point, two-rebound performance on eight shots.
Normally, teams would be able to rely on their pre-NCAA evaluations of prospects such as Williams and Boston, but with no high school All-Star events, they don't have that reference point, making these conference tournaments that much more meaningful. You could make the same argument for fringe first-rounders such as Josh Christopher, Marcus Bagley and Day'Ron Sharpe. The door is open for more productive one-and-dones in Moses Moody, Keon Johnson, Isaiah Jackson and Scottie Barnes to prove themselves as top-10 picks with standout performances this week.
Givony: Mid-major prospects have so much at stake in conference tournaments because of the nature of their schedules. For many, getting into the NCAA tournament is the best way to be evaluated against other NBA prospects at their positions.
For some NBA scouts, seeing big stats in smaller leagues don't mean much until they are validated by doing the same against top competition.
Take Santi Aldama from Loyola Maryland as an example. After missing almost all of his freshman year with an injury, his team has played only 15 games this season, none of which were against teams ranked among the top 150 in college basketball. His conference played all games behind closed doors and did not allow NBA scouts into buildings to evaluate prospects live. After surprisingly upsetting then 15-2 Navy in the opening round of the Patriot League tournament, Loyola is now only two wins away from reaching the NCAA tournament. For a player with first-round draft aspirations like Aldama, whose skill set and productivity certainly warrants the attention, making the NCAA tournament could be the difference between going pro or returning to school for another year.
This time of year is also important for players who missed a chunk of the season due to injury.
UConn's James Bouknight suffered an elbow injury in early January that caused him to miss almost six weeks of action. He has only faced one sure NCAA tournament team since December -- a tough Villanova squad that gave him some real problems. NBA scouts I talk to love his talent but sound skeptical about his role and potential at the next level. Is he a bona fide star who can shoulder significant offense and make those around him better? Or is he more of an off-the-bench spark plug who primarily looks for his own? His defense and passing ability are real questions for some. The Big East tournament is wide open, so taking UConn on a run and continuing to play well as the competition stiffens in the NCAA tournament will be important if Bouknight wants to establish himself in the Nos. 6-10 range of the draft as opposed to the late lottery.
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