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2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
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Grizz gonna draft a Kyle Anderson type?
Upon further review Murphy or moody or even kispert imo
Upon further review Murphy or moody or even kispert imo
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Moody makes all the sense in the world to me, but what do I know?
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Gotta get shooting
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To me, he has like the third or fourth highest floor in this draft after Cade, Mobley and maybe Suggs.
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So I guess Kira Lewis will get the starting spot in New Orleans?
Mister Meaner
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I have a feeling draft day is gonna be nuts. Knicks can honestly stay at 19 & 21 and get something worthwhile. Idk what I prefer.
HOU$TON
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The Houston Rockets have numerous options at No. 2 overall in the NBA draft, assuming that Oklahoma State point guard and presumptive No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham goes first to the Detroit Pistons.
One of those potential choices is USC big man Evan Mobley, but Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated reported that the ex-Trojan's camp may be disinterested in seeing the Pac-12 Player of the Year go to Houston.
Woo's report delivers a similar message as one from ESPN's Jonathan Givony (h/t Ben DuBose of Rockets Wire), who wrote the Rockets have been "stonewalled" in their attempts to bring in Mobley for a private workout. Givony also wrote that Houston hasn't been able to bring in Gonzaga point guard Jalen Suggs either.
Mobley and Suggs are two of the three prime candidates for the Rockets at No. 2 if Cunningham goes first. The other is shooting guard Jalen Green of the NBA G League Ignite, and Kelly Iko of the Athletic reported that may be where Houston is leaning.
We'll soon find out what the Rockets do with the NBA draft set to go down on Thursday evening from Brooklyn, New York's Barclays Center.
One of those potential choices is USC big man Evan Mobley, but Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated reported that the ex-Trojan's camp may be disinterested in seeing the Pac-12 Player of the Year go to Houston.
Mobley averaged 16.4 points on 57.8 percent shooting, in his lone year at USC. He was also named a consensus second-team All-American en route to leading the Trojans to the Elite Eight.
Woo's report delivers a similar message as one from ESPN's Jonathan Givony (h/t Ben DuBose of Rockets Wire), who wrote the Rockets have been "stonewalled" in their attempts to bring in Mobley for a private workout. Givony also wrote that Houston hasn't been able to bring in Gonzaga point guard Jalen Suggs either.
Mobley and Suggs are two of the three prime candidates for the Rockets at No. 2 if Cunningham goes first. The other is shooting guard Jalen Green of the NBA G League Ignite, and Kelly Iko of the Athletic reported that may be where Houston is leaning.
Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer also pegged Green to the Rockets in his latest mock draft, writing that the selection "appears to be the preference here." However, he also noted that Mobley is still in the mix.
We'll soon find out what the Rockets do with the NBA draft set to go down on Thursday evening from Brooklyn, New York's Barclays Center.
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Good. F' em
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Mister Meaner
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I hope the rumors are true on OKC shopping SGA. Doubtful son wants to stay, but what do I know. Knicks can throw the farm besides RJ & Julius but OKC going big yout hunting.
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NBA draft 2021: Ranking the top 30 prospects based on stats and scouting
Does Thursday's NBA draft (8 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC) grade out as well statistically as in the evaluation of league scouts?
Not by my projections, which combine statistical projections based on player performance in college or other professional leagues with how players rank in our top 100 prospects. By those measures, there's no prospect in this year's draft who rates as strong combined as LaMelo Ball did last season and Rookie of the Year runners-up Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton also rated ahead of this year's highly touted top four prospects.
Still, this looks like a solid lottery with four players who rank in the top 10 of my stats-only projections and in our top 10 -- typically a recipe for a strong career -- plus a handful of others who narrowly miss out in one category or the other. For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
Otherwise, let's break down this year's top 30 and a couple of notable omissions.
1. Alperen Sengun
Center | Besiktas
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.2 WARP
This year's top-rated prospect won't surprise anyone who's followed Sengun's domination of the Basketball Super League in his native Turkey. At age 18 (he turned 19 on Sunday), Sengun led the league with 8.9 WARP, nearly 3.5 more than any other player. He was chosen as MVP, producing the third-best stats-only projection in my database behind Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
It's understandable that scouts question whether that production will entirely translate. Sengun's stats-only projection is in the same ballpark as DeJuan Blair and Kenneth Faried, who enjoyed solid careers as role players but were never NBA stars. Still, there's little precedent for anyone as productive as Sengun truly failing as a pro.
2. Cade Cunningham
Guard | Oklahoma State
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Cunningham's statistics during his one season at Oklahoma State aren't quite as effusive as scouts are about his potential. Cunningham had a relatively high turnover rate and shot just 46% inside the arc. His stats-only projection is on the low end for recent No. 1 picks along with Edwards and Andrew Wiggins. Still, the strong predictive value of being the top-rated player puts him atop the group of players likely to be drafted with the first four picks.
3. Jalen Green
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
For a teenager competing against players shuttling back and forth from the NBA, Green held his own as part of G League Ignite, an encouraging sign for his long-term prospects. He rated as an above-average player in the G League thanks to efficient scoring (.592 true shooting) while using 23% of Ignite's plays. Green just misses the stats-only top 10.
4. Evan Mobley
Forward/Center | USC
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Among the top four prospects, Mobley was the most productive last season, though that's to be expected for a big man. The higher replacement level for post players is one reason Mobley's stats-only rating is more modest. Nonetheless, Mobley looks like the rare big man who justifies a top-five pick because of his versatility and dominant paint defense.
5. Josh Giddey
Guard | Adelaide
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
The versatile Giddey led the NBL in his native Australia with 7.5 APG last season, ahead of former NBA players Scott Machado and Bryce Cotton, while also averaging 7.4 RPG. If Giddey can improve his shooting after making just 29% of his 3-pointers and 69% of his free throws last season, he's likely to be a valuable NBA contributor. He's the first of the four players in the top 10 by both components of my projections.
6. Jalen Suggs
Guard | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Along with Cunningham, Suggs is one of three prospects in the top 30 without any statistical weaknesses -- meaning ranking in the bottom 25% of NBA-bound players at his position in a key skill-based category. Suggs' steal rate is also best among players in the top 50, an important indicator of NBA success.
7. Jonathan Kuminga
Forward | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
As compared to Green, Kuminga wasn't as effective in the G League, rating around replacement level in that competition because of a dismal .466 true shooting percentage. He rates as well as he does in the stats-only projections largely due to age. Kuminga won't turn 18 until October. He and Giddey are the two youngest prospects in the top 20.
8. Usman Garuba
Forward | Real Madrid
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Garuba was a key contributor for Real Madrid in EuroLeague and ACB competition last season as a teenager. Among draft prospects, only Rokas Jokubaitis saw more EuroLeague minutes. Because of his quality teammates, who included NBA veterans Rudy Fernandez and Anthony Randolph, Garuba has the lowest projected usage rate among prospects in the top 80. He's ready to fill a role with his strong rebounding (projected second only to Sengun) and defense.
9. Franz Wagner
Forward | Michigan
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Another promising role player, Wagner filled out the box score with 3.0 APG and at least one steal and block per game as a sophomore at Michigan. Despite playing two years of college hoops, Wagner is two months younger than Mobley. And his strong free throw shooting (83.5%) suggests development in store after he topped out at 34% beyond the arc in college.
10. Moses Moody
Guard | Arkansas
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Moody's combination of excellent positional length (his wingspan was measured at more than 7 feet at the NBA draft combine) and shooting ability looks ideal for an NBA wing. He also excelled at the AAU level in the 2019 Nike EYBL, posting the best per-minute rating of any prospect from that group in the 2021 draft.
11. Trey Murphy III
Forward | Virginia
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Murphy's apparent recent rise up draft boards is justified by his strong performance as a transfer at Virginia last season, including 62% shooting inside the arc and 43% on 3s. His long-term projection for 3-point accuracy is best of any player in the top 60.
12. Jalen Johnson
Forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Johnson's projection might have benefited had he played out his lone season at Duke. On a per-minute basis, Johnson was more impressive than his overall projection, which regressed to the mean (and his weaker EYBL play) heavily because he logged just 278 total minutes.
13. Scottie Barnes
Forward | Florida State
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
There's not much in Barnes' box-score stats to explain the growing expectation he'll go no later than sixth on Thursday. He's older than Johnson and rated as less effective last season. At the same time, the box score doesn't capture Barnes' greatest strength, his on-ball defense.
14. Joshua Primo
Guard | Alabama
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Age is the biggest selling point for Primo, the youngest player in this year's top 100. He won't turn 19 until December. Given how much younger he was than his opponents, Primo was effective at Alabama as a part-time starter, knocking down 38% of his 3-point attempts.
15. JT Thor
Forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Another player who will be drafted at age 18, Thor could be a long-term project as he works to stretch out his game after shooting 30% from the NCAA 3-point line. If he gets there, Thor's potential to space the floor and provide rim protection as a power forward is intriguing.
16. Nah'Shon Hyland
Guard | VCU
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Better known as "Bones" because of his skinny frame, Hyland has deep range, having made 1.4 3-pointers per game from beyond 25 feet according to CBBAnalytics.com. He also posted above-average steal rates for a perimeter player and has the ability and size to play either guard position.
17. Corey Kispert
Forward | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The highest-ranked four-year player in the projections, Kispert ranks as the next-best shooter likely to be drafted after Murphy. He particularly excelled as a senior with Suggs helping set him up, making 63% of his 2-point attempts and 44% of his 3s. That's hardly a fluke but Kispert wasn't as prolific in previous seasons, which along with his age and below-average rebounding and steal rates for a wing accounts for his middling stats-only rank.
18. Joe Wieskamp
Forward | Iowa
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Given the nearly 40-spot difference between Kispert and Wieskamp in the top 100, their statistical projections are remarkably similar -- and even favor Wieskamp defensively. He was the slightly better catch-and-shoot option, shooting an effective 65% on such attempts last season according to Synergy Sports, good for 10th among players with at least 100 attempts. (Kispert was 18th at 63%.)
19. Charles Bassey
Center | Western Kentucky
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
After a down sophomore year, Bassey bounced back with a strong junior campaign, winning Conference USA Player of the Year after averaging 17.6 PPG, 11.6 RPG and 3.1 BPG on 65% 2-point shooting. His six statistical strengths -- categories in the top 25% of NBA-bound prospects -- are tied for second-most among players in this year's draft behind Sengun.
20. Day'Ron Sharpe
Center | North Carolina
Top 100: No. 31
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
A super-sub at North Carolina behind more experienced starters Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks, Sharpe piled up rebounds and steals at an above-average rate for a center. To justify this projection, he'll have to improve on 52% 2-point shooting and 50.5% accuracy from the foul line.
21. Justin Champagnie
Forward | Pittsburgh
Top 100: No. 69
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The highest-rated prospect outside the ESPN top 60, Champagnie excelled as an undersized power forward at Pitt but will likely have to move to the perimeter in the pros. He improved from 26% from 3-point range as a freshman to 31% as a sophomore and his 74.5% foul shooting shows decent promise for improvement.
22. Isaiah Jackson
Forward/Center | Kentucky
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The energetic Jackson has the best projected block rate of any player in the top 100. Unfortunately, his foul rate is also highest among this group, suggesting some growing pains early in his career. Jackson could also stand to improve as a defensive rebounder.
23. Jaden Springer
Guard | Tennessee
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The more productive of the Vols' two freshman guards in this year's draft, Springer could help his cause by becoming more aggressive as a 3-point shooter. He hit 43.5% of his attempts, but took just 20% of his shots from long range.
24. Keon Johnson
Guard | Tennessee
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
By contrast, Johnson struggled to make 3s, hitting just 27% on the same number of attempts per game as Springer (1.
. He also tended to settle too often for long 2-pointers, which explains how an athletic 6-foot-5 guard shot just 49% inside the arc. Add in more turnovers than assists and Johnson has plenty of development so his production matches his gifts.
25. Kessler Edwards
Forward | Pepperdine
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Another prospect who may be asked to move from power forward to the wing in the pros, Edwards showed more shooting range, hitting 39.5% of his 3s in three years at Pepperdine and improving to 88% from the foul line as a senior.
26. Jared Butler
Guard | Baylor
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Returning to Synergy Sports' catch-and-shoot leaderboard, Butler was third among players with at least 100 attempts by shooting an effective 72% on catch-and-shoots. His statistical projection is hurt by modest 2-point accuracy (48% career) and below-average rebounding for a guard.
27. Chris Duarte
Guard | Oregon
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
At 24, Duarte is an unusually old prospect. There's precedent for an overage Oregon player being successful in the NBA, however, as Chris Boucher was also 24 when he went undrafted in 2017 before developing into a quality reserve for the Toronto Raptors. Duarte's efficient scoring and strong steal rate suggest he might be able to contribute more quickly than Boucher.
28. Daishen Nix
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 40
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Nix was about as productive overall as Kuminga for Ignite, handing out 7.1 assists per 36 minutes, though his poor shooting is a major concern. Nix shot just 6-of-34 (18%) during his first experience with the NBA 3-point line.
29. Joel Ayayi
Guard | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 47
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 0.6 WARP
As the Zags' fourth-leading scorer, Ayayi was often overshadowed by two lottery prospects and leading scorer Drew Timme (who withdrew from the draft). He fit seamlessly into a role that saw him play both on and off the ball, making an incredible 68% of his 2-point attempts with frequent layups in transition and off cuts.
30. Mitch Ballock
Guard | Creighton
Top 100: No. 87
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 0.6 WARP
Given his low top 100 ranking, Ballock is likely headed for a two-way contract. He could contribute in that role along the lines of Garrison Mathews, who started 24 games for the Wizards last season. Ballock was a 40% 3-point shooter in four years at Creighton and plays to his strength: 75% of his attempts came from beyond the arc.
Two top-10 prospects who didn't crack the top 30:
32. James Bouknight
Guard | UConn
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 62
Consensus: 0.5 WARP
Bouknight's stats-only projection pegs him worse than replacement level in large part because of iffy outside shooting. He hit just 32% of his 3s in two years at UConn, though 80% free throw shooting is encouraging. Bouknight also had nearly 1.5 times as many turnovers as assists, suggesting concerns about his decision making.
42. Davion Mitchell
Guard | Baylor
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 79
Consensus: 0.2 WARP
Mitchell's rapid development between his first and second seasons at Baylor (after transferring from Auburn) makes him unique historically. Based solely on his 2020-21 campaign, Mitchell's consensus rating would rank 16th overall. But as a redshirt sophomore, Mitchell looked like a non-prospect, hitting just 32% of his 3s before jumping to 45% as a junior. The fact that Mitchell showed no improvement from the line (where he was a 66% career shooter) makes me skeptical that leap is real.
Mitchell isn't getting enough credit for his on-ball defense here, and his development as a pick-and-roll ball handler last season is more likely to sustain him, but I wouldn't be comfortable drafting him in the lottery.
Does Thursday's NBA draft (8 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC) grade out as well statistically as in the evaluation of league scouts?
Not by my projections, which combine statistical projections based on player performance in college or other professional leagues with how players rank in our top 100 prospects. By those measures, there's no prospect in this year's draft who rates as strong combined as LaMelo Ball did last season and Rookie of the Year runners-up Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton also rated ahead of this year's highly touted top four prospects.
Still, this looks like a solid lottery with four players who rank in the top 10 of my stats-only projections and in our top 10 -- typically a recipe for a strong career -- plus a handful of others who narrowly miss out in one category or the other. For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
Otherwise, let's break down this year's top 30 and a couple of notable omissions.
1. Alperen Sengun
Center | Besiktas
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.2 WARP
This year's top-rated prospect won't surprise anyone who's followed Sengun's domination of the Basketball Super League in his native Turkey. At age 18 (he turned 19 on Sunday), Sengun led the league with 8.9 WARP, nearly 3.5 more than any other player. He was chosen as MVP, producing the third-best stats-only projection in my database behind Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
It's understandable that scouts question whether that production will entirely translate. Sengun's stats-only projection is in the same ballpark as DeJuan Blair and Kenneth Faried, who enjoyed solid careers as role players but were never NBA stars. Still, there's little precedent for anyone as productive as Sengun truly failing as a pro.
2. Cade Cunningham
Guard | Oklahoma State
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Cunningham's statistics during his one season at Oklahoma State aren't quite as effusive as scouts are about his potential. Cunningham had a relatively high turnover rate and shot just 46% inside the arc. His stats-only projection is on the low end for recent No. 1 picks along with Edwards and Andrew Wiggins. Still, the strong predictive value of being the top-rated player puts him atop the group of players likely to be drafted with the first four picks.
3. Jalen Green
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
For a teenager competing against players shuttling back and forth from the NBA, Green held his own as part of G League Ignite, an encouraging sign for his long-term prospects. He rated as an above-average player in the G League thanks to efficient scoring (.592 true shooting) while using 23% of Ignite's plays. Green just misses the stats-only top 10.
4. Evan Mobley
Forward/Center | USC
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Among the top four prospects, Mobley was the most productive last season, though that's to be expected for a big man. The higher replacement level for post players is one reason Mobley's stats-only rating is more modest. Nonetheless, Mobley looks like the rare big man who justifies a top-five pick because of his versatility and dominant paint defense.
5. Josh Giddey
Guard | Adelaide
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
The versatile Giddey led the NBL in his native Australia with 7.5 APG last season, ahead of former NBA players Scott Machado and Bryce Cotton, while also averaging 7.4 RPG. If Giddey can improve his shooting after making just 29% of his 3-pointers and 69% of his free throws last season, he's likely to be a valuable NBA contributor. He's the first of the four players in the top 10 by both components of my projections.
6. Jalen Suggs
Guard | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Along with Cunningham, Suggs is one of three prospects in the top 30 without any statistical weaknesses -- meaning ranking in the bottom 25% of NBA-bound players at his position in a key skill-based category. Suggs' steal rate is also best among players in the top 50, an important indicator of NBA success.
7. Jonathan Kuminga
Forward | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
As compared to Green, Kuminga wasn't as effective in the G League, rating around replacement level in that competition because of a dismal .466 true shooting percentage. He rates as well as he does in the stats-only projections largely due to age. Kuminga won't turn 18 until October. He and Giddey are the two youngest prospects in the top 20.
8. Usman Garuba
Forward | Real Madrid
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Garuba was a key contributor for Real Madrid in EuroLeague and ACB competition last season as a teenager. Among draft prospects, only Rokas Jokubaitis saw more EuroLeague minutes. Because of his quality teammates, who included NBA veterans Rudy Fernandez and Anthony Randolph, Garuba has the lowest projected usage rate among prospects in the top 80. He's ready to fill a role with his strong rebounding (projected second only to Sengun) and defense.
9. Franz Wagner
Forward | Michigan
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Another promising role player, Wagner filled out the box score with 3.0 APG and at least one steal and block per game as a sophomore at Michigan. Despite playing two years of college hoops, Wagner is two months younger than Mobley. And his strong free throw shooting (83.5%) suggests development in store after he topped out at 34% beyond the arc in college.
10. Moses Moody
Guard | Arkansas
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Moody's combination of excellent positional length (his wingspan was measured at more than 7 feet at the NBA draft combine) and shooting ability looks ideal for an NBA wing. He also excelled at the AAU level in the 2019 Nike EYBL, posting the best per-minute rating of any prospect from that group in the 2021 draft.
11. Trey Murphy III
Forward | Virginia
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Murphy's apparent recent rise up draft boards is justified by his strong performance as a transfer at Virginia last season, including 62% shooting inside the arc and 43% on 3s. His long-term projection for 3-point accuracy is best of any player in the top 60.
12. Jalen Johnson
Forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Johnson's projection might have benefited had he played out his lone season at Duke. On a per-minute basis, Johnson was more impressive than his overall projection, which regressed to the mean (and his weaker EYBL play) heavily because he logged just 278 total minutes.
13. Scottie Barnes
Forward | Florida State
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
There's not much in Barnes' box-score stats to explain the growing expectation he'll go no later than sixth on Thursday. He's older than Johnson and rated as less effective last season. At the same time, the box score doesn't capture Barnes' greatest strength, his on-ball defense.
14. Joshua Primo
Guard | Alabama
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Age is the biggest selling point for Primo, the youngest player in this year's top 100. He won't turn 19 until December. Given how much younger he was than his opponents, Primo was effective at Alabama as a part-time starter, knocking down 38% of his 3-point attempts.
15. JT Thor
Forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Another player who will be drafted at age 18, Thor could be a long-term project as he works to stretch out his game after shooting 30% from the NCAA 3-point line. If he gets there, Thor's potential to space the floor and provide rim protection as a power forward is intriguing.
16. Nah'Shon Hyland
Guard | VCU
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Better known as "Bones" because of his skinny frame, Hyland has deep range, having made 1.4 3-pointers per game from beyond 25 feet according to CBBAnalytics.com. He also posted above-average steal rates for a perimeter player and has the ability and size to play either guard position.
17. Corey Kispert
Forward | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The highest-ranked four-year player in the projections, Kispert ranks as the next-best shooter likely to be drafted after Murphy. He particularly excelled as a senior with Suggs helping set him up, making 63% of his 2-point attempts and 44% of his 3s. That's hardly a fluke but Kispert wasn't as prolific in previous seasons, which along with his age and below-average rebounding and steal rates for a wing accounts for his middling stats-only rank.
18. Joe Wieskamp
Forward | Iowa
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Given the nearly 40-spot difference between Kispert and Wieskamp in the top 100, their statistical projections are remarkably similar -- and even favor Wieskamp defensively. He was the slightly better catch-and-shoot option, shooting an effective 65% on such attempts last season according to Synergy Sports, good for 10th among players with at least 100 attempts. (Kispert was 18th at 63%.)
19. Charles Bassey
Center | Western Kentucky
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
After a down sophomore year, Bassey bounced back with a strong junior campaign, winning Conference USA Player of the Year after averaging 17.6 PPG, 11.6 RPG and 3.1 BPG on 65% 2-point shooting. His six statistical strengths -- categories in the top 25% of NBA-bound prospects -- are tied for second-most among players in this year's draft behind Sengun.
20. Day'Ron Sharpe
Center | North Carolina
Top 100: No. 31
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
A super-sub at North Carolina behind more experienced starters Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks, Sharpe piled up rebounds and steals at an above-average rate for a center. To justify this projection, he'll have to improve on 52% 2-point shooting and 50.5% accuracy from the foul line.
21. Justin Champagnie
Forward | Pittsburgh
Top 100: No. 69
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The highest-rated prospect outside the ESPN top 60, Champagnie excelled as an undersized power forward at Pitt but will likely have to move to the perimeter in the pros. He improved from 26% from 3-point range as a freshman to 31% as a sophomore and his 74.5% foul shooting shows decent promise for improvement.
22. Isaiah Jackson
Forward/Center | Kentucky
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The energetic Jackson has the best projected block rate of any player in the top 100. Unfortunately, his foul rate is also highest among this group, suggesting some growing pains early in his career. Jackson could also stand to improve as a defensive rebounder.
23. Jaden Springer
Guard | Tennessee
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The more productive of the Vols' two freshman guards in this year's draft, Springer could help his cause by becoming more aggressive as a 3-point shooter. He hit 43.5% of his attempts, but took just 20% of his shots from long range.
24. Keon Johnson
Guard | Tennessee
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
By contrast, Johnson struggled to make 3s, hitting just 27% on the same number of attempts per game as Springer (1.
. He also tended to settle too often for long 2-pointers, which explains how an athletic 6-foot-5 guard shot just 49% inside the arc. Add in more turnovers than assists and Johnson has plenty of development so his production matches his gifts.25. Kessler Edwards
Forward | Pepperdine
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Another prospect who may be asked to move from power forward to the wing in the pros, Edwards showed more shooting range, hitting 39.5% of his 3s in three years at Pepperdine and improving to 88% from the foul line as a senior.
26. Jared Butler
Guard | Baylor
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Returning to Synergy Sports' catch-and-shoot leaderboard, Butler was third among players with at least 100 attempts by shooting an effective 72% on catch-and-shoots. His statistical projection is hurt by modest 2-point accuracy (48% career) and below-average rebounding for a guard.
27. Chris Duarte
Guard | Oregon
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
At 24, Duarte is an unusually old prospect. There's precedent for an overage Oregon player being successful in the NBA, however, as Chris Boucher was also 24 when he went undrafted in 2017 before developing into a quality reserve for the Toronto Raptors. Duarte's efficient scoring and strong steal rate suggest he might be able to contribute more quickly than Boucher.
28. Daishen Nix
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 40
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Nix was about as productive overall as Kuminga for Ignite, handing out 7.1 assists per 36 minutes, though his poor shooting is a major concern. Nix shot just 6-of-34 (18%) during his first experience with the NBA 3-point line.
29. Joel Ayayi
Guard | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 47
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 0.6 WARP
As the Zags' fourth-leading scorer, Ayayi was often overshadowed by two lottery prospects and leading scorer Drew Timme (who withdrew from the draft). He fit seamlessly into a role that saw him play both on and off the ball, making an incredible 68% of his 2-point attempts with frequent layups in transition and off cuts.
30. Mitch Ballock
Guard | Creighton
Top 100: No. 87
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 0.6 WARP
Given his low top 100 ranking, Ballock is likely headed for a two-way contract. He could contribute in that role along the lines of Garrison Mathews, who started 24 games for the Wizards last season. Ballock was a 40% 3-point shooter in four years at Creighton and plays to his strength: 75% of his attempts came from beyond the arc.
Two top-10 prospects who didn't crack the top 30:
32. James Bouknight
Guard | UConn
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 62
Consensus: 0.5 WARP
Bouknight's stats-only projection pegs him worse than replacement level in large part because of iffy outside shooting. He hit just 32% of his 3s in two years at UConn, though 80% free throw shooting is encouraging. Bouknight also had nearly 1.5 times as many turnovers as assists, suggesting concerns about his decision making.
42. Davion Mitchell
Guard | Baylor
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 79
Consensus: 0.2 WARP
Mitchell's rapid development between his first and second seasons at Baylor (after transferring from Auburn) makes him unique historically. Based solely on his 2020-21 campaign, Mitchell's consensus rating would rank 16th overall. But as a redshirt sophomore, Mitchell looked like a non-prospect, hitting just 32% of his 3s before jumping to 45% as a junior. The fact that Mitchell showed no improvement from the line (where he was a 66% career shooter) makes me skeptical that leap is real.
Mitchell isn't getting enough credit for his on-ball defense here, and his development as a pick-and-roll ball handler last season is more likely to sustain him, but I wouldn't be comfortable drafting him in the lottery.
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John Hollinger’s 2021 NBA Mock Draft: Cade Cunningham goes No. 1, trade talk dominates rest
This might be a different kind of draft than we’re used to. Let’s start at the top: The two most important layers in this draft aren’t Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green. Instead, the real focal points of Thursday’s proceedings are two guys who aren’t eligible to be selected: Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard.
The fact is that past the first six picks (and even within the first six picks), a lot of the teams are looking for star-studded trades rather than teenaged phenoms. Teams with multiple picks (Golden State at No. 7 and No. 14, New York at No. 19 and No. 21), extensive playoff droughts (Hi, Sacramento!), or with unnecessarily hurried win-now mandates (You do you, New Orleans) are only tangentially focused on what this draft can bring them. If they have to use the pick on Thursday night, great, but they’re kind of hoping to do something completely different.
Deeper in the draft, you can add the Lakers (picking 22nd), the Nets (27th) Sixers (28th), Suns (29th) and Jazz (30th) to that list; you could probably make a compelling case for the Wizards (15th) and Hawks (20th) as well.
Of course, that in and of itself is a problem. You can’t have sellers unless you also have buyers; if everybody is trying to trade their pick and nobody wants to acquire it, no trades can happen. Unfortunately, the teams that otherwise would be the most likely to acquire picks – including Oklahoma City, Houston, Orlando – already have multiple firsts in this draft, and generally have more than enough future draft capital already.
This takes us back to Beal and Lillard. With the commitment of each to his franchise wavering at the moment, teams such as the ones above are stockpiling assets and lying in wait, hoping to pounce at the moment a trade demand comes down … this week, they hope, but more realistically later this summer.
In the meantime, Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons becomes a major consolation prize who also factors heavily into Thursday’s thought process, either as a piece that moves on draft night or a player to be targeted later in the offseason.
For now, those “win-now” teams will patiently bid their time, and everyone else will spend the next 48 hours leaking optimistic trades that use their seventh-best player to magically vault themselves into the lottery. They’ll also discuss more realistic trades, some of which may come to fruition by Thursday. (We’ve already had one, actually, with Monday’s deal between Memphis and New Orleans.)
Unfortunately, I have to project what is going to happen now. So in setting up my own mock draft, I’ll use one guiding rule: We know trades will happen on draft night, but we also know that betting on any individual trade happening is fairly unlikely. The only difference this year is that, given the considerations above, we could see several lottery teams selecting for trade value rather than their own personal preferences.
Let’s get to it.
1. Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham | 6-foot-8, lead ballhandler | 19 years old, freshman | Oklahoma State
While nobody quite has the stones to say Detroit will go in a different direction here, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if the Pistons either chose to trade down a spot or selected Jalen Green with the top pick. (Evan Mobley supposedly remains in consideration as well, although I don’t get the impression Detroit’s heart is in it on that one). You still hear mutterings that the Pistons like Green’s upside, that Cunningham’s workout didn’t blow them away, and that the phone lines on a trade remain open.
I’ll say this, though: It seems logical that the first pick will be Cunningham, whether it’s by Detroit or another team. If the Pistons like Green better, their best move is to bluff that they’ll take Cunningham and then trade down with Houston.
Instead, let me throw another wrinkle here: What if the Thunder came in with a Godfather offer – say, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the 6th and 16th picks? OKC has more picks than it knows what to do with, and the only thing Gilgeous-Alexander can do for the Thunder is cost them the top pick a year from now. And of course, there is a working relationship here between Thunder GM Sam Presti and Pistons GM Troy Weaver, one that already saw them make a trade of backup wings at the trade deadline.
That’s the type of wild card that could upend draft night. That said, the smart bet is we go through a few ups and downs on the roller coaster and end up right back in the same spot: Cunningham first to Detroit.
2. Houston Rockets
Jalen Green | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Rockets have been on the phones about trades, but I don’t see one on the board that makes much sense for them unless it’s to move up to No. 1. (The likely cost would be one of the future unprotected picks they have from Brooklyn.)
Houston’s new administration has seemed pretty excited about speedy, athletic 6-foot-5 guys in general, and Green would be, by far, the most talented of that group. One can also connect the dots to the Eric Gordon trade rumors here – he would become superfluous on a team rebuilding around Green and Kevin Porter.
The idea of selecting Mobley is interesting, pairing him with Christian Wood in a very light but super-mobile frontcourt, but the idea of Mobley doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of traction right now.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Evan Mobley | 7-0 center | 20 years old, freshman | USC
I understand the idea that the Cavaliers should look to select a wing given that they plan on re-signing Jarrett Allen (most likely) and still have Larry Nance and Kevin Love.
Here’s the problem: Cleveland’s much greater issue is that it has no stars or players who are even remotely stars. They are hoping that Collin Sexton can maybe become one while nervously contemplating the idea of paying real money to extend him, and meanwhile evaluating his trade market. Nonetheless, no realistic list of the top 50 players in the league includes a Cavalier.
Positional fit is the type of thing you generally worry about after you have talent, not beforehand. If Mobley and Allen end up both being good and aren’t able to co-exist, you trade out of that. If they draft a player who stinks, that’s harder to fix.
As far as who the Cavs will actually pick, it would seem Mobley would be the obvious choice after the first two names are off the board. Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs creates even more of a roster logjam than Mobley does, and while I’m a big Scottie Barnes fan, I haven’t heard chatter about him here.
4. Toronto Raptors
Jalen Suggs | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Gonzaga
My default here is Suggs given that he’s the top-rated player left on most boards at this point. His fit as a combo guard next to Fred VanVleet is also crystal-clear. One presumes that Kyle Lowry will be gone and the only question is whether it’s via sign-and-trade or a direct signing, and that the Raptors can soft-rebuild around their 20-somethings at this point.
The other name I can’t dismiss here, however, is Barnes. Look at the Raptors’ draft history. They love super-long, plus-defending prospects like this (see Anunoby, OG; Siakam, Pascal), especially when accompanied with some ball skills. The problem, of course, is that Toronto already employs Anunoby and Siakam and have both under long-term contracts, affording limited opportunity for a guy like Barnes to break through.
5. Orlando Magic
Scottie Barnes | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Florida State
The draft history of the Orlando front office tandem of Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, dating to their time together in Milwaukee, is that they worship at the altar of length. Long arms haven’t dictated every single choice (Cole Anthony a year ago, for instance), but more often than not they’ve leaned heavily in that direction. That paid off gangbusters on one notable pick (a certain Greek fellow who did some good stuff recently) and less notably on Mo Bamba.
I don’t see why the Magic wouldn’t go for the length at this spot, given that Barnes is also pretty clearly the best prospect left on the board. His 7-foot-2 wingspan is just the cherry on the sundae, one that could theoretically allow the Magic to roll with an all-pterodactyl frontcourt of Barnes and Jonathan Isaac.
A more interesting question: What should they do if Barnes is off the board? Do they roll with Suggs and have a point guard battle between him and Markelle Fultz? Trade down? Roll the dice on Jonathan Kuminga or James Bouknight? I suspect the Magic are hoping they don’t have to answer that question.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jonathan Kuminga | 6-7 wing/forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite
There has been a gigantic plume of smoke that the Thunder have the hots for James Bouknight. Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but it almost seems too perfect to me, like a smokescreen. First, the Thunder’s history is that they make their pick two months before the draft, promise somebody and shut him down throughout the draft process. That hasn’t happened with Bouknight.
Second, Oklahoma City has generally favored long, toolsy wings with iffy skill levels above all else, and that would be a giant check mark in Kuminga’s favor. Finally, in a front office that historically has been really tight with information, the drumbeat about Bouknight feels a little too persistent – this isn’t how Oklahoma City has operated.
There is one other important reason to think Kuminga might be the pick here, which is that it’s in the Thunder’s own rational self interest to stink again this season to try to get a top pick in 2022. Kuminga has long-term upside, but he’d probably be a pretty severely negative player as a rookie. Poku Power!
Summing up all the data points, I still think it points slightly in favor of the Thunder taking Kuminga here.
7. Golden State Warriors
James Bouknight | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | Connecticut
Here’s where the draft gets really interesting. Golden State’s debate is likely one between trade value and the ability to help this season. Whomever the Warriors pick at No. 7 and No. 14, those players are likely to be the centerpieces of any trade offer for Lillard or Beal. But if there is no deal for those players, the Warriors also need to be okay having the player they select play all year, and hopefully contribute right away.
That latter point could be an argument for Moses Moody or even Corey Kispert, but I’m wondering if Bouknight’s shot creation ability still will win out for a team that had massive problems scoring any time Steph Curry is off the court.
The Warriors also reportedly like Davion Mitchell and Chris Duarte, but there’s a feeling they can get one of them at No. 14 and that they should strive for something more here.
8. Orlando Magic
Moses Moody | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Arkansas
Again, the Magic love length, and Moody has a 7-foot-1 wingspan from the guard spot, which allows him to comfortably check 2s and 3s. Compared to the other potential players Orlando might select in this spot, he wins the length battle comfortably.
It’s not just a question of long arms, though. The other variable here is that Orlando’s roster is mighty short on skill, and Moody’s 3-point shooting ability and general polish as a scorer should be a plus in this area.
In contrast to Orlando’s pick at No. 5, however, this one seems to be a lot more in play as far as trade scenarios. The Magic could easily be tempted to trade down and look at other candidates, such as Alperen Sengun or Ziaire Williams if another team puts the right offer in front of them.
While we’re here, it’s beyond the scope of this mock to project the second round, but I’m definitely wondering if the Magic’s lust for long arms will see them take Auburn’s J.T. Thor at No. 33.
9. Sacramento Kings
Franz Wagner | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, sophomore | Michigan
The Kings are exploring various win-now moves with this pick as they try to end a 15-year playoff drought and hold a parade for themselves for finishing 40-42. They’re also looking at some other moves that are less “win-now” than “probably-necessary,” such as trading Marvin Bagley’s $11 million salary to end up with enough cap room to re-sign Richaun Holmes. One of the angles on a rumored Buddy Hield-Kyle Kuzma trade is that it could open similar cap room doors, although the Lakers can’t likely save them that much on their own.
While other names have come up here, Wagner feels like the right call. The Kings are pretty analytics driven and Wagner’s numbers are some of the best in the draft; after the runaway success of the Tyrese Haliburton pick last year, the Kings aren’t likely to deviate from this road. Additionally, Sacramento only has one big wing (Harrison Barnes) in its rotation, so Wagner steps into a bit of a void on the roster.
10. Memphis Grizzlies (via New Orleans)
Josh Giddey | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Adelaide
This pick will be announced as the Pelicans’ on draft night, but Memphis will acquire it in a trade that can’t be completed until Aug. 6.
Speaking of which: I know there is the idea out there that the Grizzlies had to be making this trade “for” somebody, that they were particularly hot and heavy over one particular prospect. But if that was really the case, they would have done this deal on the clock on Thursday night, when they knew that player had reached them at No. 10.
Instead, this seems more like straight opportunism, and a case of wanting to move as high as possible to get the best player available. Yes, the Grizzlies traded up a couple of spots in each of the last two drafts to get a targeted player, but those were much smaller moves made on the clock on draft night. This deal is different.
What we do know about the Grizzlies is that they aren’t averse to drafting upperclassmen and that they have a real need for size on the wing. That means their choice likely comes down to one of four players: Wagner, Moody, Giddey and Kispert. Well, cross out two of them, since I have Moody and Wagner off the board at this point.
So is it Giddey or Kispert for Memphis? Kispert is the more natural fit, since the Grizzlies are pretty desperate for high-level shooting on the wing, while a “point forward” like Giddey would seem to have limited value on a team where Ja Morant will be dominating the ball for the next decade.
And yet … I’m still going to put Giddey here. I think there’s just too big a gap between Giddey’s ceiling and Kispert’s, and in Memphis’s position, rolling the dice on talent still is more important. Also, Kyle Anderson will be a free agent after the season, which would potentially leave the door open for Giddey’s skill set.
The curveball here is one other name you hear with Memphis: Zaire Williams, who could get looks as high as No. 8 with Orlando. But would the Grizzlies really trade up to take him all the way at No. 10 when he might very well be there at No. 17?
Concomitant with that idea, one other kernel to file away: Giddey at No. 10 could also be tempting enough for another team that said team baits Memphis to trade back down, in which case the Grizzlies could take Kispert or Williams anyway.
11. Charlotte Hornets
Kai Jones | 6-11 big | 20 years old, sophomore | Texas
The impression of Charlotte the past several years, aside from the LaMelo Ball pick, is that its scouting consists of watching the Final Four, the ACC Tournament and the Kentucky-Kansas game. Since 2017, the Hornets have had eight picks in the top 45; they drafted three players from Kentucky, and one each from Duke, Michigan State, Florida State and Kansas. Only two of them (Vernon Carey and Malik Monk) were freshmen. All of them were high-level performers too, whereas my pick here (Jones) didn’t have overwhelming collegiate production.
That history would seem to argue for Davion Mitchell or Kispert here, but this year could mark a fresh approach in the Queen City. The word is that the Hornets are high on Jones, and it sort of makes sense. He fits an archetype that Charlotte doesn’t have: a tall, athletic forward who can possibly grow into a skill level, and hey, he’s not a freshman.
The other obvious fit here would be Alperen Sengun, who fills a glaring need for Charlotte in the middle, but it would be an extremely out-of-character pick for the Hornets. It seems more likely that they will try to fill their center void in free agency, given that they’ll have at least $20 million in room, and try to swing for the fences on Jones here.
12. San Antonio Spurs
Alperen Sengun | 6-10 big | 19 years old, international | Besiktas
The Spurs love internationals! The Spurs love bigs! What could be more obvious?
Actually, one thing holds me back from going all-in on Sengun here as the choice: My spies say the Spurs have already been connected to some free-agent bigs, and that would be odd timing for a team that intends to pick a center. They already employ a big 7-footer in Jakob Poeltl, so they wouldn’t be forking out for another big unless they a) don’t plan on drafting one or b) think it’s still 1993.
Of course, all that free-agency noise could plausibly be a fallback position for San Antonio if Sengun isn’t there at No. 12, since there are basically no other centers worth taking at this point in the draft.
One other interesting note, amidst all the trade noise whirling around them: The Spurs historically just stick to their draft spot and make a pick.
13. Indiana Pacers
Corey Kispert | 6-7 wing | 22 years old, senior | Gonzaga
This is too perfect, right? The Pacers get to replace free agent Doug McDermott with the next Doug McDermott. They could probably run all the same plays and everything.
Indiana is in a bit of a win-now mode, having just hired Rick Carlisle to coach and being set up roster-wise to have a pretty good team next year, and Kispert gives the Pacers the best boost this season.
The Pacers could also look to the backcourt by drafting Davion Mitchell, and that could particularly be the case if Malcolm Brogdon ends up in a new situation. His name has come up as a trade option, although primarily because his contract is probably the one Pacers’ deal large enough to be useful in a swap for a star. Also, a Mitchell selection would be fun because it means we’d get our 11th straight season of Aaron Holiday trade rumors.
Nonetheless, my read of the tea leaves is that it’s a bit more likely they go with Kispert here.
14. Golden State Warriors
Davion Mitchell | 6-3 guard | 22 years old, junior | Baylor
Two names consistently come up with the second Golden State pick, and not surprisingly they’re two older players who can contribute immediately: Mitchell and Oregon guard Chris Duarte. Mitchell seems to have the upper hand of the two, although there might be some hesitation to pick him here if the Warriors end up taking James Bouknight 7th, as I have in the mock above. However, even in that case there probably is enough skill differentiation that Golden State might be comfortable taking both.
Also, putting Mitchell here lets me hedge my bets in two cases. The first is if the Thunder take Bouknight at No. 6 and the Warriors end up with Kuminga, Moody or Wagner at No. 7, in which case there would be no inhibition to taking Mitchell at No. 14. The second, of course, is if the seventh pick is traded entirely, which can’t be ruled out at all. So, probabilistically, I think this is the way to call it.
15. Washington Wizards
Keon Johnson | 6-5 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Tennessee
Washington might be in a win-now mode, especially if it means keeping Beal on board with the idea of extending his contract this season. That said, historically the Wizards have avoided letting that logic creep into their draft mentality, with their last two lottery picks being more developmental types in Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija.
Johnson would be another pick of this ilk, as he wowed with his leaping ability but needs to develop his skill level quite a bit before he can become a reliable contributor. There are a few big wings Washington could take here, but such a player would only get in the way of the Wizards’ last two picks. Meanwhile, Johnson, as a two, offers a more clear path to playing with Washington’s other young talent eventually … not to mention a possible pathway to a post-Beal future at the two if the Wizards have to resort to Plan B.
16. Oklahoma City Thunder
Usman Garuba | 6-8 big | 19 years old | Real Madrid
The Thunder love toolsy athletes and they love to shut down guys weeks ahead of the draft. In this case, it makes sense that Garuba is their guy because the Thunder didn’t need to shut him down – he couldn’t work out for teams anyway, since he’s playing for Spain in the Olympics.
The Thunder, by the way, could easily be on the move from picks No. 16 and No. 18, especially since they can take on noxious contracts in return for moving up in the draft. Unlike Aleksej Pokusevski a year ago, however, it’s not totally clear who their move-up target might be this time around.
17. New Orleans Pelicans (via Memphis)
Trey Murphy | 6-9 wing | 21 years old, junior | Virginia
This trade will be announced as Memphis’, but the Pelicans will acquire it in a trade that can’t be complete until Aug. 6.
Operation #SaveGriffsJob is full steam ahead, with the Pelicans giving up draft equity and trading down to dump contracts so they can take a plunge in free agency. Continuing that theme, I’m told the Pelicans had eyed Murphy with the 10th pick but felt that was too high a spot to select him.
Problem solved. Murphy doesn’t exactly ooze upside given his limited shot creation, but he’s a tall wing who can shoot and slide his feet. The Pelicans roster is all but devoid of players of this ilk, so he has a pretty clear pathway to rotation viability in New Orleans.
18. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Johnson | 6-8 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Duke
I don’t have a great landing spot for Johnson, despite his talent, because teams are squeamish about his one season at Duke and how his style of play will translate to the NBA. At this point, however, the Thunder are a team that should definitely be taking big swings on talent, and Johnson is by far the most talented player left on the board. I don’t have a lot of smoke to connect the team to the player here, I just think it makes too much sense at this spot in the draft not to happen. One could pretty easily see the Thunder go for Ziaire Williams here, too.
19. New York Knicks
Chris Duarte | 6-6 guard | 24 years old, senior | Oregon
There is constant chatter about the Knicks moving up from their picks at No. 19 and No. 21, especially since New York can potentially use its cap space to take on a contract. However, if the Knicks stay put, expect them to use the first pick on the most win-now guy left in this section of the draft.
Duarte is 24 (!), but projects as a plug-and-play wing who can make shots, move the ball and guard his position. He’ll be in play for Golden State’s second pick at No. 14, but I’m not sure how much the teams in between these two spots value him, which might make the Knicks more willing to stand at No. 19 and wait for Duarte to get to them.
20. Atlanta Hawks
Ziaire Williams | 6-9 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Stanford
We’re getting into serious dart-throwing territory at this point, but Williams is the one guy left who was getting pretty consistent buzz in the teens that we still haven’t taken off our board. Since I’m not convinced Atlanta will be the team that eventually makes this pick – the Hawks will likely be seeking out trades to upgrade the roster after this summer’s conference finals run – I’ll put Williams here as a placeholder. And honestly, if the Hawks do keep the pick, he might be their guy anyway; Atlanta has a thing for big wings, and Williams’ rough year at Stanford hasn’t dented his stock as much as one might suspect.
21. New York Knicks
Isaiah Jackson | 6-10 center | 19 years old, freshman | Kentucky
Maybe it’s too facile to assume the Knicks will take the CAA client who went to Kentucky. But until further notice, it’s still the way to bet. Jackson gives New York some insurance in case Nerlens Noel flies the coop in free agency (or if the Knicks need his cap hold to execute another deal), while adding another athletic shot blocker to Tom Thibodeau’s defense-first frontcourt.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Jared Butler | 6-3 guard | 20 years old, junior | Baylor
You’re going to hear a lot of rumors about the Lakers trying this trade and that trade, but the problem with completing any deal of significance is that L.A. just doesn’t have a lot of chips left to push in. The most valuable chip left, in fact, might be this pick, so you could see it paired with Kyle Kuzma and/or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bring back something of value.
I’m guessing, however, that the return on such a deal is not significant enough to warrant a deal and the Lakers end up keeping the pick. If so, Butler is the one player who likely helps them most this coming season, with his ability to shoot from the perimeter serving as a useful complement to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
However, Butler faces some health questions that could still impact his stock. While a league panel of doctors cleared him for a heart issue, teams are doing their own research to make sure they understand the risk. Some may decide it’s not worth it. Questions have also come up about his knees, and that could push him down.
So why take him here? History says that most teams have been far too conservative with injury issues in the draft. Once we get into the 20s, the risk of a player failing because he’s not any good is much greater than the risk of him failing due to injury.
23. Houston Rockets
Miles McBride | 6-2 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | West Virginia
The Rockets have picks No. 23 and No. 24 and have been active in conversation about moving up or otherwise gaining assets out of this haul. One scenario our Shams Charania reported had them sending Eric Gordon to Indiana and moving up to 13th, although that would require some significant money coming back as well. (A Jeremy Lamb-Aaron Holiday combo would just be enough for a salary match.)
McBride is one of my favorite sleepers so I’m hoping he gets the call here. He might theoretically have some positional overlap with the likely second overall pick, Jalen Green, but their skill sets are so different that it wouldn’t seem that difficult to play the two together if they both hit. McBride’s strength, defensive toughness and length on defense fit into Houston’s approach at that end, where the Rockets have tended to collect short, switchable players (think Jae’Sean Tate or David Nwaba); the plus in McBride’s case is that he adds enough shooting and playmaking to have a viable offensive role.
24. Houston Rockets
Jaden Springer | 6-4 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Tennessee
Yes, it’s weird for Houston to take two combo guards right in a row, especially after taking Jalen Green at No. 2, but the Rockets are in talent acquisition mode right now; they can afford to take the best talent available and worry about fit later. It’s nice to say they should take a big wing instead, but those ranks have been pretty much picked clean at this point in the draft, and we’re getting into serious dice roll territory (Brandon Boston, anybody?) with the 6-foot-7 types who would be available here. Springer has shown well in workouts and his birth certificate works in his favor as one of the youngest players in the draft. Houston can afford to be patient with him.
25. Los Angeles Clippers
Ayo Dosunmu | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Illinois
One hopes that the rousing success of the Clippers’ smallball lineups in the playoffs will dissuade them from drafting another third-string center this time around. If so, the Clippers do have a “type,” and it’s gritty guards who like to defend and rebound. McBride would be a great choice for them if he drops to No. 25, but if not, Dosunmu seems like the next-most Clipper-y choice.
26. Denver Nuggets
Rokas Jokubaitis | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | Zalgiris
The Nuggets have never been shy about drafting internationals, and this one comes with the built-in advantage that they don’t need to put him on their team this year. With the Nuggets navigating a complicated route to avoid the luxury tax while still retaining free agents Will Barton and JaMychal Green and hopefully improving the roster beyond that, rostering a first-round pick is a luxury they can defer a year or two down the road while Jokubaitis gets Euroleague reps in Barcelona. One other name getting some traction here is Alabama guard Josh Primo, a long-term developmental wing.
27. Brooklyn Nets
Cam Thomas | 6-3 guard | 19 years old, freshman | LSU
The Nets don’t mind having bucket-getters on the roster, even surrounding their three superstars (witness Mike James a year ago), so if Brooklyn ends up keeping the pick, one could see Thomas being their choice as a potential bench scorer … and one who can step up on the nights that the Nets don’t have all their Big 3 intact. Thomas’s game isn’t for everyone, but his individual scoring ability gives him a chance to make an impact.
28. Philadelphia 76ers
Sharife Cooper | 6-1 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Auburn
Another pick that could easily end up being in play, but if the Sixers do select here it might behoove them to grab the best point guard left on the board. If you haven’t heard, Philly’s current one might be available on the trade market. Cooper also provides a dimension the Sixers don’t currently have on their roster as a small, quick penetrator who mostly plays to set up others.
29. Phoenix Suns
Day’Ron Sharpe | 6-11 center | 19 years old, freshman | North Carolina
The Suns’ lack of a backup center exposed them in the Finals, and may motivate them to take one on draft night. Of course, they also tried this last year and that player (Jalen Smith) was unplayable in the postseason, so maybe they track differently this time, or trade the pick entirely.
One reason to think drafting a five might be the answer, however, is that the Suns don’t have a lot of money to spend while remaining below the luxury tax. If they re-sign Cameron Payne at something close to the midlevel exception, that likely doesn’t leave enough room to use their midlevel exception on a backup center. The 29th pick in the draft, on the other hand, has a small enough salary to easily slide in here.
30. Utah Jazz
Quentin Grimes | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Houston
The 6-foot-5 Grimes probably did more to help himself than any other player at the Combine, and Utah could use another big guard in its mix. While the Jazz could easily end up trading this selection, especially as part of a larger deal that reworks its cap sheet to enable them to re-sign Mike Conley more easily, Grimes is as good a bet as any to hear his name called here if the Jazz hang on to the pick.
This might be a different kind of draft than we’re used to. Let’s start at the top: The two most important layers in this draft aren’t Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green. Instead, the real focal points of Thursday’s proceedings are two guys who aren’t eligible to be selected: Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard.
The fact is that past the first six picks (and even within the first six picks), a lot of the teams are looking for star-studded trades rather than teenaged phenoms. Teams with multiple picks (Golden State at No. 7 and No. 14, New York at No. 19 and No. 21), extensive playoff droughts (Hi, Sacramento!), or with unnecessarily hurried win-now mandates (You do you, New Orleans) are only tangentially focused on what this draft can bring them. If they have to use the pick on Thursday night, great, but they’re kind of hoping to do something completely different.
Deeper in the draft, you can add the Lakers (picking 22nd), the Nets (27th) Sixers (28th), Suns (29th) and Jazz (30th) to that list; you could probably make a compelling case for the Wizards (15th) and Hawks (20th) as well.
Of course, that in and of itself is a problem. You can’t have sellers unless you also have buyers; if everybody is trying to trade their pick and nobody wants to acquire it, no trades can happen. Unfortunately, the teams that otherwise would be the most likely to acquire picks – including Oklahoma City, Houston, Orlando – already have multiple firsts in this draft, and generally have more than enough future draft capital already.
This takes us back to Beal and Lillard. With the commitment of each to his franchise wavering at the moment, teams such as the ones above are stockpiling assets and lying in wait, hoping to pounce at the moment a trade demand comes down … this week, they hope, but more realistically later this summer.
In the meantime, Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons becomes a major consolation prize who also factors heavily into Thursday’s thought process, either as a piece that moves on draft night or a player to be targeted later in the offseason.
For now, those “win-now” teams will patiently bid their time, and everyone else will spend the next 48 hours leaking optimistic trades that use their seventh-best player to magically vault themselves into the lottery. They’ll also discuss more realistic trades, some of which may come to fruition by Thursday. (We’ve already had one, actually, with Monday’s deal between Memphis and New Orleans.)
Unfortunately, I have to project what is going to happen now. So in setting up my own mock draft, I’ll use one guiding rule: We know trades will happen on draft night, but we also know that betting on any individual trade happening is fairly unlikely. The only difference this year is that, given the considerations above, we could see several lottery teams selecting for trade value rather than their own personal preferences.
Let’s get to it.
1. Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham | 6-foot-8, lead ballhandler | 19 years old, freshman | Oklahoma State
While nobody quite has the stones to say Detroit will go in a different direction here, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if the Pistons either chose to trade down a spot or selected Jalen Green with the top pick. (Evan Mobley supposedly remains in consideration as well, although I don’t get the impression Detroit’s heart is in it on that one). You still hear mutterings that the Pistons like Green’s upside, that Cunningham’s workout didn’t blow them away, and that the phone lines on a trade remain open.
I’ll say this, though: It seems logical that the first pick will be Cunningham, whether it’s by Detroit or another team. If the Pistons like Green better, their best move is to bluff that they’ll take Cunningham and then trade down with Houston.
Instead, let me throw another wrinkle here: What if the Thunder came in with a Godfather offer – say, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the 6th and 16th picks? OKC has more picks than it knows what to do with, and the only thing Gilgeous-Alexander can do for the Thunder is cost them the top pick a year from now. And of course, there is a working relationship here between Thunder GM Sam Presti and Pistons GM Troy Weaver, one that already saw them make a trade of backup wings at the trade deadline.
That’s the type of wild card that could upend draft night. That said, the smart bet is we go through a few ups and downs on the roller coaster and end up right back in the same spot: Cunningham first to Detroit.
2. Houston Rockets
Jalen Green | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Rockets have been on the phones about trades, but I don’t see one on the board that makes much sense for them unless it’s to move up to No. 1. (The likely cost would be one of the future unprotected picks they have from Brooklyn.)
Houston’s new administration has seemed pretty excited about speedy, athletic 6-foot-5 guys in general, and Green would be, by far, the most talented of that group. One can also connect the dots to the Eric Gordon trade rumors here – he would become superfluous on a team rebuilding around Green and Kevin Porter.
The idea of selecting Mobley is interesting, pairing him with Christian Wood in a very light but super-mobile frontcourt, but the idea of Mobley doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of traction right now.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Evan Mobley | 7-0 center | 20 years old, freshman | USC
I understand the idea that the Cavaliers should look to select a wing given that they plan on re-signing Jarrett Allen (most likely) and still have Larry Nance and Kevin Love.
Here’s the problem: Cleveland’s much greater issue is that it has no stars or players who are even remotely stars. They are hoping that Collin Sexton can maybe become one while nervously contemplating the idea of paying real money to extend him, and meanwhile evaluating his trade market. Nonetheless, no realistic list of the top 50 players in the league includes a Cavalier.
Positional fit is the type of thing you generally worry about after you have talent, not beforehand. If Mobley and Allen end up both being good and aren’t able to co-exist, you trade out of that. If they draft a player who stinks, that’s harder to fix.
As far as who the Cavs will actually pick, it would seem Mobley would be the obvious choice after the first two names are off the board. Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs creates even more of a roster logjam than Mobley does, and while I’m a big Scottie Barnes fan, I haven’t heard chatter about him here.
4. Toronto Raptors
Jalen Suggs | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Gonzaga
My default here is Suggs given that he’s the top-rated player left on most boards at this point. His fit as a combo guard next to Fred VanVleet is also crystal-clear. One presumes that Kyle Lowry will be gone and the only question is whether it’s via sign-and-trade or a direct signing, and that the Raptors can soft-rebuild around their 20-somethings at this point.
The other name I can’t dismiss here, however, is Barnes. Look at the Raptors’ draft history. They love super-long, plus-defending prospects like this (see Anunoby, OG; Siakam, Pascal), especially when accompanied with some ball skills. The problem, of course, is that Toronto already employs Anunoby and Siakam and have both under long-term contracts, affording limited opportunity for a guy like Barnes to break through.
5. Orlando Magic
Scottie Barnes | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Florida State
The draft history of the Orlando front office tandem of Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, dating to their time together in Milwaukee, is that they worship at the altar of length. Long arms haven’t dictated every single choice (Cole Anthony a year ago, for instance), but more often than not they’ve leaned heavily in that direction. That paid off gangbusters on one notable pick (a certain Greek fellow who did some good stuff recently) and less notably on Mo Bamba.
I don’t see why the Magic wouldn’t go for the length at this spot, given that Barnes is also pretty clearly the best prospect left on the board. His 7-foot-2 wingspan is just the cherry on the sundae, one that could theoretically allow the Magic to roll with an all-pterodactyl frontcourt of Barnes and Jonathan Isaac.
A more interesting question: What should they do if Barnes is off the board? Do they roll with Suggs and have a point guard battle between him and Markelle Fultz? Trade down? Roll the dice on Jonathan Kuminga or James Bouknight? I suspect the Magic are hoping they don’t have to answer that question.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jonathan Kuminga | 6-7 wing/forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite
There has been a gigantic plume of smoke that the Thunder have the hots for James Bouknight. Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but it almost seems too perfect to me, like a smokescreen. First, the Thunder’s history is that they make their pick two months before the draft, promise somebody and shut him down throughout the draft process. That hasn’t happened with Bouknight.
Second, Oklahoma City has generally favored long, toolsy wings with iffy skill levels above all else, and that would be a giant check mark in Kuminga’s favor. Finally, in a front office that historically has been really tight with information, the drumbeat about Bouknight feels a little too persistent – this isn’t how Oklahoma City has operated.
There is one other important reason to think Kuminga might be the pick here, which is that it’s in the Thunder’s own rational self interest to stink again this season to try to get a top pick in 2022. Kuminga has long-term upside, but he’d probably be a pretty severely negative player as a rookie. Poku Power!
Summing up all the data points, I still think it points slightly in favor of the Thunder taking Kuminga here.
7. Golden State Warriors
James Bouknight | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | Connecticut
Here’s where the draft gets really interesting. Golden State’s debate is likely one between trade value and the ability to help this season. Whomever the Warriors pick at No. 7 and No. 14, those players are likely to be the centerpieces of any trade offer for Lillard or Beal. But if there is no deal for those players, the Warriors also need to be okay having the player they select play all year, and hopefully contribute right away.
That latter point could be an argument for Moses Moody or even Corey Kispert, but I’m wondering if Bouknight’s shot creation ability still will win out for a team that had massive problems scoring any time Steph Curry is off the court.
The Warriors also reportedly like Davion Mitchell and Chris Duarte, but there’s a feeling they can get one of them at No. 14 and that they should strive for something more here.
8. Orlando Magic
Moses Moody | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Arkansas
Again, the Magic love length, and Moody has a 7-foot-1 wingspan from the guard spot, which allows him to comfortably check 2s and 3s. Compared to the other potential players Orlando might select in this spot, he wins the length battle comfortably.
It’s not just a question of long arms, though. The other variable here is that Orlando’s roster is mighty short on skill, and Moody’s 3-point shooting ability and general polish as a scorer should be a plus in this area.
In contrast to Orlando’s pick at No. 5, however, this one seems to be a lot more in play as far as trade scenarios. The Magic could easily be tempted to trade down and look at other candidates, such as Alperen Sengun or Ziaire Williams if another team puts the right offer in front of them.
While we’re here, it’s beyond the scope of this mock to project the second round, but I’m definitely wondering if the Magic’s lust for long arms will see them take Auburn’s J.T. Thor at No. 33.
9. Sacramento Kings
Franz Wagner | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, sophomore | Michigan
The Kings are exploring various win-now moves with this pick as they try to end a 15-year playoff drought and hold a parade for themselves for finishing 40-42. They’re also looking at some other moves that are less “win-now” than “probably-necessary,” such as trading Marvin Bagley’s $11 million salary to end up with enough cap room to re-sign Richaun Holmes. One of the angles on a rumored Buddy Hield-Kyle Kuzma trade is that it could open similar cap room doors, although the Lakers can’t likely save them that much on their own.
While other names have come up here, Wagner feels like the right call. The Kings are pretty analytics driven and Wagner’s numbers are some of the best in the draft; after the runaway success of the Tyrese Haliburton pick last year, the Kings aren’t likely to deviate from this road. Additionally, Sacramento only has one big wing (Harrison Barnes) in its rotation, so Wagner steps into a bit of a void on the roster.
10. Memphis Grizzlies (via New Orleans)
Josh Giddey | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Adelaide
This pick will be announced as the Pelicans’ on draft night, but Memphis will acquire it in a trade that can’t be completed until Aug. 6.
Speaking of which: I know there is the idea out there that the Grizzlies had to be making this trade “for” somebody, that they were particularly hot and heavy over one particular prospect. But if that was really the case, they would have done this deal on the clock on Thursday night, when they knew that player had reached them at No. 10.
Instead, this seems more like straight opportunism, and a case of wanting to move as high as possible to get the best player available. Yes, the Grizzlies traded up a couple of spots in each of the last two drafts to get a targeted player, but those were much smaller moves made on the clock on draft night. This deal is different.
What we do know about the Grizzlies is that they aren’t averse to drafting upperclassmen and that they have a real need for size on the wing. That means their choice likely comes down to one of four players: Wagner, Moody, Giddey and Kispert. Well, cross out two of them, since I have Moody and Wagner off the board at this point.
So is it Giddey or Kispert for Memphis? Kispert is the more natural fit, since the Grizzlies are pretty desperate for high-level shooting on the wing, while a “point forward” like Giddey would seem to have limited value on a team where Ja Morant will be dominating the ball for the next decade.
And yet … I’m still going to put Giddey here. I think there’s just too big a gap between Giddey’s ceiling and Kispert’s, and in Memphis’s position, rolling the dice on talent still is more important. Also, Kyle Anderson will be a free agent after the season, which would potentially leave the door open for Giddey’s skill set.
The curveball here is one other name you hear with Memphis: Zaire Williams, who could get looks as high as No. 8 with Orlando. But would the Grizzlies really trade up to take him all the way at No. 10 when he might very well be there at No. 17?
Concomitant with that idea, one other kernel to file away: Giddey at No. 10 could also be tempting enough for another team that said team baits Memphis to trade back down, in which case the Grizzlies could take Kispert or Williams anyway.
11. Charlotte Hornets
Kai Jones | 6-11 big | 20 years old, sophomore | Texas
The impression of Charlotte the past several years, aside from the LaMelo Ball pick, is that its scouting consists of watching the Final Four, the ACC Tournament and the Kentucky-Kansas game. Since 2017, the Hornets have had eight picks in the top 45; they drafted three players from Kentucky, and one each from Duke, Michigan State, Florida State and Kansas. Only two of them (Vernon Carey and Malik Monk) were freshmen. All of them were high-level performers too, whereas my pick here (Jones) didn’t have overwhelming collegiate production.
That history would seem to argue for Davion Mitchell or Kispert here, but this year could mark a fresh approach in the Queen City. The word is that the Hornets are high on Jones, and it sort of makes sense. He fits an archetype that Charlotte doesn’t have: a tall, athletic forward who can possibly grow into a skill level, and hey, he’s not a freshman.
The other obvious fit here would be Alperen Sengun, who fills a glaring need for Charlotte in the middle, but it would be an extremely out-of-character pick for the Hornets. It seems more likely that they will try to fill their center void in free agency, given that they’ll have at least $20 million in room, and try to swing for the fences on Jones here.
12. San Antonio Spurs
Alperen Sengun | 6-10 big | 19 years old, international | Besiktas
The Spurs love internationals! The Spurs love bigs! What could be more obvious?
Actually, one thing holds me back from going all-in on Sengun here as the choice: My spies say the Spurs have already been connected to some free-agent bigs, and that would be odd timing for a team that intends to pick a center. They already employ a big 7-footer in Jakob Poeltl, so they wouldn’t be forking out for another big unless they a) don’t plan on drafting one or b) think it’s still 1993.
Of course, all that free-agency noise could plausibly be a fallback position for San Antonio if Sengun isn’t there at No. 12, since there are basically no other centers worth taking at this point in the draft.
One other interesting note, amidst all the trade noise whirling around them: The Spurs historically just stick to their draft spot and make a pick.
13. Indiana Pacers
Corey Kispert | 6-7 wing | 22 years old, senior | Gonzaga
This is too perfect, right? The Pacers get to replace free agent Doug McDermott with the next Doug McDermott. They could probably run all the same plays and everything.
Indiana is in a bit of a win-now mode, having just hired Rick Carlisle to coach and being set up roster-wise to have a pretty good team next year, and Kispert gives the Pacers the best boost this season.
The Pacers could also look to the backcourt by drafting Davion Mitchell, and that could particularly be the case if Malcolm Brogdon ends up in a new situation. His name has come up as a trade option, although primarily because his contract is probably the one Pacers’ deal large enough to be useful in a swap for a star. Also, a Mitchell selection would be fun because it means we’d get our 11th straight season of Aaron Holiday trade rumors.
Nonetheless, my read of the tea leaves is that it’s a bit more likely they go with Kispert here.
14. Golden State Warriors
Davion Mitchell | 6-3 guard | 22 years old, junior | Baylor
Two names consistently come up with the second Golden State pick, and not surprisingly they’re two older players who can contribute immediately: Mitchell and Oregon guard Chris Duarte. Mitchell seems to have the upper hand of the two, although there might be some hesitation to pick him here if the Warriors end up taking James Bouknight 7th, as I have in the mock above. However, even in that case there probably is enough skill differentiation that Golden State might be comfortable taking both.
Also, putting Mitchell here lets me hedge my bets in two cases. The first is if the Thunder take Bouknight at No. 6 and the Warriors end up with Kuminga, Moody or Wagner at No. 7, in which case there would be no inhibition to taking Mitchell at No. 14. The second, of course, is if the seventh pick is traded entirely, which can’t be ruled out at all. So, probabilistically, I think this is the way to call it.
15. Washington Wizards
Keon Johnson | 6-5 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Tennessee
Washington might be in a win-now mode, especially if it means keeping Beal on board with the idea of extending his contract this season. That said, historically the Wizards have avoided letting that logic creep into their draft mentality, with their last two lottery picks being more developmental types in Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija.
Johnson would be another pick of this ilk, as he wowed with his leaping ability but needs to develop his skill level quite a bit before he can become a reliable contributor. There are a few big wings Washington could take here, but such a player would only get in the way of the Wizards’ last two picks. Meanwhile, Johnson, as a two, offers a more clear path to playing with Washington’s other young talent eventually … not to mention a possible pathway to a post-Beal future at the two if the Wizards have to resort to Plan B.
16. Oklahoma City Thunder
Usman Garuba | 6-8 big | 19 years old | Real Madrid
The Thunder love toolsy athletes and they love to shut down guys weeks ahead of the draft. In this case, it makes sense that Garuba is their guy because the Thunder didn’t need to shut him down – he couldn’t work out for teams anyway, since he’s playing for Spain in the Olympics.
The Thunder, by the way, could easily be on the move from picks No. 16 and No. 18, especially since they can take on noxious contracts in return for moving up in the draft. Unlike Aleksej Pokusevski a year ago, however, it’s not totally clear who their move-up target might be this time around.
17. New Orleans Pelicans (via Memphis)
Trey Murphy | 6-9 wing | 21 years old, junior | Virginia
This trade will be announced as Memphis’, but the Pelicans will acquire it in a trade that can’t be complete until Aug. 6.
Operation #SaveGriffsJob is full steam ahead, with the Pelicans giving up draft equity and trading down to dump contracts so they can take a plunge in free agency. Continuing that theme, I’m told the Pelicans had eyed Murphy with the 10th pick but felt that was too high a spot to select him.
Problem solved. Murphy doesn’t exactly ooze upside given his limited shot creation, but he’s a tall wing who can shoot and slide his feet. The Pelicans roster is all but devoid of players of this ilk, so he has a pretty clear pathway to rotation viability in New Orleans.
18. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Johnson | 6-8 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Duke
I don’t have a great landing spot for Johnson, despite his talent, because teams are squeamish about his one season at Duke and how his style of play will translate to the NBA. At this point, however, the Thunder are a team that should definitely be taking big swings on talent, and Johnson is by far the most talented player left on the board. I don’t have a lot of smoke to connect the team to the player here, I just think it makes too much sense at this spot in the draft not to happen. One could pretty easily see the Thunder go for Ziaire Williams here, too.
19. New York Knicks
Chris Duarte | 6-6 guard | 24 years old, senior | Oregon
There is constant chatter about the Knicks moving up from their picks at No. 19 and No. 21, especially since New York can potentially use its cap space to take on a contract. However, if the Knicks stay put, expect them to use the first pick on the most win-now guy left in this section of the draft.
Duarte is 24 (!), but projects as a plug-and-play wing who can make shots, move the ball and guard his position. He’ll be in play for Golden State’s second pick at No. 14, but I’m not sure how much the teams in between these two spots value him, which might make the Knicks more willing to stand at No. 19 and wait for Duarte to get to them.
20. Atlanta Hawks
Ziaire Williams | 6-9 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Stanford
We’re getting into serious dart-throwing territory at this point, but Williams is the one guy left who was getting pretty consistent buzz in the teens that we still haven’t taken off our board. Since I’m not convinced Atlanta will be the team that eventually makes this pick – the Hawks will likely be seeking out trades to upgrade the roster after this summer’s conference finals run – I’ll put Williams here as a placeholder. And honestly, if the Hawks do keep the pick, he might be their guy anyway; Atlanta has a thing for big wings, and Williams’ rough year at Stanford hasn’t dented his stock as much as one might suspect.
21. New York Knicks
Isaiah Jackson | 6-10 center | 19 years old, freshman | Kentucky
Maybe it’s too facile to assume the Knicks will take the CAA client who went to Kentucky. But until further notice, it’s still the way to bet. Jackson gives New York some insurance in case Nerlens Noel flies the coop in free agency (or if the Knicks need his cap hold to execute another deal), while adding another athletic shot blocker to Tom Thibodeau’s defense-first frontcourt.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Jared Butler | 6-3 guard | 20 years old, junior | Baylor
You’re going to hear a lot of rumors about the Lakers trying this trade and that trade, but the problem with completing any deal of significance is that L.A. just doesn’t have a lot of chips left to push in. The most valuable chip left, in fact, might be this pick, so you could see it paired with Kyle Kuzma and/or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bring back something of value.
I’m guessing, however, that the return on such a deal is not significant enough to warrant a deal and the Lakers end up keeping the pick. If so, Butler is the one player who likely helps them most this coming season, with his ability to shoot from the perimeter serving as a useful complement to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
However, Butler faces some health questions that could still impact his stock. While a league panel of doctors cleared him for a heart issue, teams are doing their own research to make sure they understand the risk. Some may decide it’s not worth it. Questions have also come up about his knees, and that could push him down.
So why take him here? History says that most teams have been far too conservative with injury issues in the draft. Once we get into the 20s, the risk of a player failing because he’s not any good is much greater than the risk of him failing due to injury.
23. Houston Rockets
Miles McBride | 6-2 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | West Virginia
The Rockets have picks No. 23 and No. 24 and have been active in conversation about moving up or otherwise gaining assets out of this haul. One scenario our Shams Charania reported had them sending Eric Gordon to Indiana and moving up to 13th, although that would require some significant money coming back as well. (A Jeremy Lamb-Aaron Holiday combo would just be enough for a salary match.)
McBride is one of my favorite sleepers so I’m hoping he gets the call here. He might theoretically have some positional overlap with the likely second overall pick, Jalen Green, but their skill sets are so different that it wouldn’t seem that difficult to play the two together if they both hit. McBride’s strength, defensive toughness and length on defense fit into Houston’s approach at that end, where the Rockets have tended to collect short, switchable players (think Jae’Sean Tate or David Nwaba); the plus in McBride’s case is that he adds enough shooting and playmaking to have a viable offensive role.
24. Houston Rockets
Jaden Springer | 6-4 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Tennessee
Yes, it’s weird for Houston to take two combo guards right in a row, especially after taking Jalen Green at No. 2, but the Rockets are in talent acquisition mode right now; they can afford to take the best talent available and worry about fit later. It’s nice to say they should take a big wing instead, but those ranks have been pretty much picked clean at this point in the draft, and we’re getting into serious dice roll territory (Brandon Boston, anybody?) with the 6-foot-7 types who would be available here. Springer has shown well in workouts and his birth certificate works in his favor as one of the youngest players in the draft. Houston can afford to be patient with him.
25. Los Angeles Clippers
Ayo Dosunmu | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Illinois
One hopes that the rousing success of the Clippers’ smallball lineups in the playoffs will dissuade them from drafting another third-string center this time around. If so, the Clippers do have a “type,” and it’s gritty guards who like to defend and rebound. McBride would be a great choice for them if he drops to No. 25, but if not, Dosunmu seems like the next-most Clipper-y choice.
26. Denver Nuggets
Rokas Jokubaitis | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | Zalgiris
The Nuggets have never been shy about drafting internationals, and this one comes with the built-in advantage that they don’t need to put him on their team this year. With the Nuggets navigating a complicated route to avoid the luxury tax while still retaining free agents Will Barton and JaMychal Green and hopefully improving the roster beyond that, rostering a first-round pick is a luxury they can defer a year or two down the road while Jokubaitis gets Euroleague reps in Barcelona. One other name getting some traction here is Alabama guard Josh Primo, a long-term developmental wing.
27. Brooklyn Nets
Cam Thomas | 6-3 guard | 19 years old, freshman | LSU
The Nets don’t mind having bucket-getters on the roster, even surrounding their three superstars (witness Mike James a year ago), so if Brooklyn ends up keeping the pick, one could see Thomas being their choice as a potential bench scorer … and one who can step up on the nights that the Nets don’t have all their Big 3 intact. Thomas’s game isn’t for everyone, but his individual scoring ability gives him a chance to make an impact.
28. Philadelphia 76ers
Sharife Cooper | 6-1 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Auburn
Another pick that could easily end up being in play, but if the Sixers do select here it might behoove them to grab the best point guard left on the board. If you haven’t heard, Philly’s current one might be available on the trade market. Cooper also provides a dimension the Sixers don’t currently have on their roster as a small, quick penetrator who mostly plays to set up others.
29. Phoenix Suns
Day’Ron Sharpe | 6-11 center | 19 years old, freshman | North Carolina
The Suns’ lack of a backup center exposed them in the Finals, and may motivate them to take one on draft night. Of course, they also tried this last year and that player (Jalen Smith) was unplayable in the postseason, so maybe they track differently this time, or trade the pick entirely.
One reason to think drafting a five might be the answer, however, is that the Suns don’t have a lot of money to spend while remaining below the luxury tax. If they re-sign Cameron Payne at something close to the midlevel exception, that likely doesn’t leave enough room to use their midlevel exception on a backup center. The 29th pick in the draft, on the other hand, has a small enough salary to easily slide in here.
30. Utah Jazz
Quentin Grimes | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Houston
The 6-foot-5 Grimes probably did more to help himself than any other player at the Combine, and Utah could use another big guard in its mix. While the Jazz could easily end up trading this selection, especially as part of a larger deal that reworks its cap sheet to enable them to re-sign Mike Conley more easily, Grimes is as good a bet as any to hear his name called here if the Jazz hang on to the pick.
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Cade signed with nike 
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Its crazy to me how some of these guys are trying to slide down on purpose. You’re gambling with a lot of money.
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My mock draft for ****s and giggles:
1. Detroit Pistons - Cade Cunningham
2. Houston Rockets - Jalen Green
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - Evan Mobley
4. Toronto Raptors - Jalen Suggs
5. Orlando Magic - Scottie Barnes
6. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Bouknight
7. Golden State Warriors - Jonathan Kuminga
8. Orlando Magic - Moses Moody
9. Sacramento Kings - Franz Wagner
10. Memphis Grizzlies - Josh Giddey
11. Charlotte Hornets - Corey Kispert
12. San Antonio Spurs - Alperen Sengun
13. Indiana Pacers - Chris Duarte
14. Golden State Warriors - Davion Mitchell
15. Washington Wizards - Keon Johnson
16. Oklahoma City Thunder - Kai Jones
17. New Orleans Pelicans - Trey Murphy
18. Oklahoma City Thunder - Ziaire Williams
19. New York Knicks - Isaiah Jackson
20. Atlanta Hawks - Jalen Johnson
21. New York Knicks - Deuce McBride
22. Los Angeles Lakers - Jared Butler
23. Houston Rockets - Usman Garuba
24. Houston Rockets - Sharife Cooper
25. Los Angeles Clippers - Cam Thomas
26. Denver Nuggets - Jaden Springer
27. Brooklyn Nets - JT Thor
28. Philadelphia 76ers - Josh Primo
29. Phoenix Suns - Ayo Dosunmu
30. Utah Jazz - Herb Jones
2. Houston Rockets - Jalen Green
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - Evan Mobley
4. Toronto Raptors - Jalen Suggs
5. Orlando Magic - Scottie Barnes
6. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Bouknight
7. Golden State Warriors - Jonathan Kuminga
8. Orlando Magic - Moses Moody
9. Sacramento Kings - Franz Wagner
10. Memphis Grizzlies - Josh Giddey
11. Charlotte Hornets - Corey Kispert
12. San Antonio Spurs - Alperen Sengun
13. Indiana Pacers - Chris Duarte
14. Golden State Warriors - Davion Mitchell
15. Washington Wizards - Keon Johnson
16. Oklahoma City Thunder - Kai Jones
17. New Orleans Pelicans - Trey Murphy
18. Oklahoma City Thunder - Ziaire Williams
19. New York Knicks - Isaiah Jackson
20. Atlanta Hawks - Jalen Johnson
21. New York Knicks - Deuce McBride
22. Los Angeles Lakers - Jared Butler
23. Houston Rockets - Usman Garuba
24. Houston Rockets - Sharife Cooper
25. Los Angeles Clippers - Cam Thomas
26. Denver Nuggets - Jaden Springer
27. Brooklyn Nets - JT Thor
28. Philadelphia 76ers - Josh Primo
29. Phoenix Suns - Ayo Dosunmu
30. Utah Jazz - Herb Jones
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