2025 NBA Draft Thread

:wow: :smh: too silky to be that tall
20221104_171036.gif
 


Rookie of the Week: Jabari Smith Jr., PF, Houston
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)

I’ve now seen Smith play twice in person at the NBA level, once in Atlanta and once in L.A. against the Clippers, and I have to say … it hasn’t quite translated as neatly or smoothly as I expected. Like a lot of people, I had Smith as the top player on my draft board, and that no longer looks like a defensible position. This is a marathon and not a sprint, but there’s no question Paolo Banchero has left him in the dust at the starting line.

First, let’s start with the positives. Smith’s shooting release remains enviable and combined with his size, it makes him a huge threatening catch-and-shoot weapon. Smith has only made 30.4 percent of his 3s thus far, but anyone watching his flawless deliveries in pre-game work thinks he can get to the 40 percent range without too much difficulty. NBA range is not a problem for him as well. Supporting that idea, Smith also has made 16 of 18 from the line.

As a catch-and-shoot weapon, Smith would also benefit from playing with somebody who passed. The only real point guard he gets court time with is during his pre-game workout with 69-year-old assistant coach John Lucas, and it often feels like Houston’s helter-skelter style leaves him a bystander.

Of greater concern is the other stuff. The 3s can be blamed on early-season variance and some other things, but Smith is shooting 30.6 percent on 2s. What?! He also has seven assists all season. Did we get so hung up on the switchable 3-and-D package that we left the basketballing stuff in the rearview mirror?

In particular, there is no shot-creation skill here at all, and until or unless that develops, Smith’s ceiling is as a high-level role player. Smith’s rare off-the-dribble efforts are labored one- or two-dribble forays into a contested pull-up (it’s guaranteed to be contested because he isn’t getting any separation). While he has the length to get the shot away, the lower-body strength isn’t there yet to keep his balance a lot of the time; even if it were, it’s just a bad shot most of the time.

Because Smith is 6 foot 10 and can jump, you’d also like to see him get something going around the basket, even if it’s on cuts or offensive boards. That just doesn’t happen: Smith only has one dunk in 276 minutes and has only attempted nine shots in the basket area.

Defensively it’s a similar story. Smith presents as a switchable four who can guard down and contest perimeter shots, but his defensive instincts don’t seem great (just two steals), and the attempts to play him as a small-ball five haven’t gone well from a physicality standpoint.

On the flip side, he’s 19 and has played nine NBA games. His 6.5 PER isn’t a gangbusters start, but he has some clear impediments between the team he’s on and his physical inability (for the moment) to play the five. It’s important not to overreact. However, it’s fair at this point to register at least a note of concern that maybe this isn’t trending the way many thought or hoped.
 


Rookie of the Week: Jabari Smith Jr., PF, Houston
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)

I’ve now seen Smith play twice in person at the NBA level, once in Atlanta and once in L.A. against the Clippers, and I have to say … it hasn’t quite translated as neatly or smoothly as I expected. Like a lot of people, I had Smith as the top player on my draft board, and that no longer looks like a defensible position. This is a marathon and not a sprint, but there’s no question Paolo Banchero has left him in the dust at the starting line.

First, let’s start with the positives. Smith’s shooting release remains enviable and combined with his size, it makes him a huge threatening catch-and-shoot weapon. Smith has only made 30.4 percent of his 3s thus far, but anyone watching his flawless deliveries in pre-game work thinks he can get to the 40 percent range without too much difficulty. NBA range is not a problem for him as well. Supporting that idea, Smith also has made 16 of 18 from the line.

As a catch-and-shoot weapon, Smith would also benefit from playing with somebody who passed. The only real point guard he gets court time with is during his pre-game workout with 69-year-old assistant coach John Lucas, and it often feels like Houston’s helter-skelter style leaves him a bystander.

Of greater concern is the other stuff. The 3s can be blamed on early-season variance and some other things, but Smith is shooting 30.6 percent on 2s. What?! He also has seven assists all season. Did we get so hung up on the switchable 3-and-D package that we left the basketballing stuff in the rearview mirror?

In particular, there is no shot-creation skill here at all, and until or unless that develops, Smith’s ceiling is as a high-level role player. Smith’s rare off-the-dribble efforts are labored one- or two-dribble forays into a contested pull-up (it’s guaranteed to be contested because he isn’t getting any separation). While he has the length to get the shot away, the lower-body strength isn’t there yet to keep his balance a lot of the time; even if it were, it’s just a bad shot most of the time.

Because Smith is 6 foot 10 and can jump, you’d also like to see him get something going around the basket, even if it’s on cuts or offensive boards. That just doesn’t happen: Smith only has one dunk in 276 minutes and has only attempted nine shots in the basket area.

Defensively it’s a similar story. Smith presents as a switchable four who can guard down and contest perimeter shots, but his defensive instincts don’t seem great (just two steals), and the attempts to play him as a small-ball five haven’t gone well from a physicality standpoint.

On the flip side, he’s 19 and has played nine NBA games. His 6.5 PER isn’t a gangbusters start, but he has some clear impediments between the team he’s on and his physical inability (for the moment) to play the five. It’s important not to overreact. However, it’s fair at this point to register at least a note of concern that maybe this isn’t trending the way many thought or hoped.

Come on, John. Lol. His 2P and creativity was always a glaring red flag. Why you acting shocked

A rich man's 3 and D, elite role player should have always been the realistic outcome. I know that sucks to hear about a potential #1 pick but that's still a commodity, especially if he starts showing the leadership scouts raved about... you didn't need to see him as a pro to realize he was lacking shot creation and dribbling

There's no reason he still couldn't become a very valuable rotation player, a 3rd or 4th option on a Playoff team
 
Sounds like Mikal Bridges. Would be very disappointing for our 3rd overall pick imo.
I mean, mikal bridges came in 2nd in dpoy as a perimeter wing defender

I don’t think that’s bad at all especially when you can realistically say smith has a better chance to become a more potent 3 point threat than bridges

If it turns out that the dudes picked after smith turn out to be all stars and #1 or #2 options on playoff teams then I guess
 
Back
Top Bottom