Air Jordan 7 Retro “Hare” - May 16, 2015

Dilbert said:
 
greg12345678900 said:
I'm not trying to sound intelligent. I was just contributing my knowledge to the situation. But since you have a masters in math, tell me how I am incorrect my G.
Click to expand...
That's the problem, you are not contributing any "knowledge" to anything or anybody.

You are spewing absolute nonsense, and doing it in a way that implies "actually guys, this incredibly simple concept that is common sense to everyone with half a brain...you are all wrong about it, and I am right about it because 'exponentiate', and transitive properties, and blah blah blah"....

When in fact, you are the one who is dead wrong and displaying a disturbing lack of common sense. And trying to spread it to others, and that is not OK.

So do you honestly need me to explain to you why entering 2, or 3, or 10 raffles gives you a better chance of winning then only entering one?

By your "logic", if I buy 1,000,000 lottery tickets, and you buy 1, then you and I have the same chance of winning that lottery?

Obviously that's insane.

Using your example, but applying actual math and common sense, if you have a 1/50 chance or winning each raffle, and you enter each raffle, then your odds of winning are then 1/50 + 1/50, which equals 2/50. Which is exactly twice as much as 1/50. Which is exactly what common sense would indicate: that if you enter two raffles, your chance of winning is twice as good as if you enter one raffle. 

In the future, just know that if you are so unbelievably wrong about such a simple concept, you are probably equally as wrong about other things as well, and you should think twice or do a little research before attempting to "educate" others. 
Click to expand...
the percentage actually remains the same, if you have 1/50 chance in two stores, it's still gonna be 1/50...instead of competing with 49 others, it will be with 99 others, yes you have an extra chance but the number of the odds also increase

if you go to 10 stores, and theres a 1/10 chance you win in each one, it will still be 1/10 overall.

now if it was ONE single global raffle, then yes, more entries will increase your chances.

a lottery played by millions is still one pool of lottery.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
GInfante said:
the percentage actually remains the same, if you have 1/50 chance in two stores, it's still gonna be 1/50...instead of competing with 49 others, it will be with 99 others, yes you have an extra chance but the number of the odds also increase

if you go to 10 stores, and theres a 1/10 chance you win in each one, it will still be 1/10 overall.

now if it was ONE single global raffle, then yes, more entries will increase your chances.

a lottery played by millions is still one pool of lottery.
Click to expand...
lmao I wasn't going to reply because clearly this guy missed the entire point I made, but since you broke it down to him maybe he'll understand. Clearly if you buy more than one lottery ticket, you're giving yourself more than one entry in the same pool of entrants, which is EXACTLY what I stated in my original post. But it's whatever. I'm off it. Not arguing a point with a guy who doesn't even know what he's talking about. In other news, the one and only raffle I entered just came through! We really are all eating this release fam
 
Dilbert said:
I really feel bad for you people...

If you don't understand, that if I go to all ten of those stores, and you only go to one of them, then I have a significantly better chance of winning than you do, well then I truly feel sorry for you.

Enjoy going through life with that level of intelligence.
Click to expand...
You guys are both correct; just arguing two different sides of the same coin.

You're saying you have more chances of winning because you have more lotto tickets, which is correct, but at the same time you're competing against the same denominator, which is what he's arguing.
 
Dilbert said:
I really feel bad for you people...

If you don't understand, that if I go to all ten of those stores, and you only go to one of them, then I have a significantly better chance of winning than you do, well then I truly feel sorry for you.

Enjoy going through life with that level of intelligence.
Click to expand...
bro, LISTEN!! This is my last time on this topic. Try to keep up. If I were to enter a raffle with 9 other people, I have a 1 in 10 shot of winning. If you were to enter 10 raffles, each with 9 other entrants in the pool, then you have a 10 in 100 chance of winning. Which simplifies to 1 in 10! Aka me and you would have the same exact chance of winning! Yeah you have 10 entries in 10 independent pools, but you're also competing with 90 other people, compared to me, who's only competing with 9 other people. There are two laws at work here. The law of proportions and the law of probability. If you still don't understand, then idk what to say. Go ask a pre-algebra teacher
 
greg12345678900 said:
bro, LISTEN!! This is my last time on this topic. Try to keep up. If I were to enter a raffle with 9 other people, I have a 1 in 10 shot of winning. If you were to enter 10 raffles, each with 9 other entrants in the pool, then you have a 10 in 100 chance of winning. Which simplifies to 1 in 10! Aka me and you would have the same exact chance of winning! Yeah you have 10 entries in 10 independent pools, but you're also competing with 90 other people, compared to me, who's only competing with 9 other people. There are two laws at work here. The law of proportions and the law of probability. If you still don't understand, then idk what to say. Go ask a pre-algebra teacher
Click to expand...

I wanted to say this but just didn't know how lol.

A little off topic, I remeber watching this video where it was like asking hood ninjas simple questions. If I'm going 60 mph how long will it take for me to travel 60 miles? Dudes were answering like 20mins.
 
So just to be clear, before I completely write off this community...

Several, if not may of you believe that if I enter ten raffles, and you enter one, then we both have the same chance of winning a raffle? Correct?
 
Still holding out for Sheikh too, entered a couple ticket raffles I usually always win and no calls. Unfortunately, Sheikh hasn't really came through for me in a while either.. :rolleyes
 
JUST GOT CALLED AT HOH.

yaylebron.gif
 
greg12345678900 said:
Actually the guy talking about the equal chances is mostly right. The only way one would effectively increase his chances in a raffle system is if that person has more than one entry in the same pool. If you're just entering multiple pools than your chances are only multiplying themselves. Instead of a 1 in 50 chance with one pool, if that person entered another pool then his chances would only exponentiate to 2 in 100. Which are the exact same odds he had with just one ticket. Law of definite proportions my friends. And that's assuming all pools have the same number of entrants which they probably won't.
Click to expand...
GInfante said:
 
the percentage actually remains the same, if you have 1/50 chance in two stores, it's still gonna be 1/50...instead of competing with 49 others, it will be with 99 others, yes you have an extra chance but the number of the odds also increase

if you go to 10 stores, and theres a 1/10 chance you win in each one, it will still be 1/10 overall.

now if it was ONE single global raffle, then yes, more entries will increase your chances.

a lottery played by millions is still one pool of lottery.
Click to expand...
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.
 
think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.
 
10 coin flips:
 
(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads
 
 
2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):
 
(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%
 
8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):
 
(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance

basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
 
Local footlocker said they didnt get any pairs. either theyre lieing cause theyre shady or theyre a joke of a store. pretty sure its a little of both though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Thread Gallery

View Full Gallery

The ultimate sneaker enthusiast community.

NikeTalk was created as a way of giving back to both the sneaker enthusiast community and to the greater global community of which we are all a part.

NikeTalk is NOT affiliated with Nike Inc. in any way, shape, or form. All opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Nike, Inc.

© 1999-2024 NikeTalk.com

Share this page

Back
Top Bottom