Ask A Hedge Fund Fraud

freakydestroyer said:
I'd like to hear Gold St's take on this. But for a while I've believed fundamentals do not mean all that much. LNKD and AMZN's prices do not make sense from a fundamental standpoint. Price is based on supply and demand and what the market and especially what the big institutions are willing to pay for them. With that said AAPL goes higher, it's just time to shake out the weak hands.
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I think its the sales numbers and the chock hold appl has on the market that will propel the stock to 1,500. I firmly believe the apple LCD television will take a big chunk out of samsungs market share in TVs. If done well (which it likely will) Apple will dominate mobile phone and television. 

I really do not see what is standing in apple's way; the company has no debt, releases slight iterations of the same product that people cannot get enough of and most of all does what no other electronics companies really does. Apple takes a holistic approach to their products which in this day in age as technology gets more complex the avg person is more propelled to gravitate to. I predict with apple TVs successful release you will see 1,000 apple shares within 2 years. The key to apple hitting 4 digits is its ability to maintain its grip on mobile; with samsung blocked there is a Strong likely hood apple's reign will continue.
 
snowinsahara said:
How exactly did you estimate the buyout?
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estimates are taken into account by listening to the July conference call , forward guidance, discounted cash flows (due to the potential of generic drugs entering the market) and analysis of other large institution's predictions.
 
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Your blog is a great read!

We touched on this in the QE thread on what to expect in the future



The one true problem with a lot of easing is the conditioning it will cause. If the market is perpetually dependent on an infusion once every year, the natural balance of equity and commodity values will be altered for the worst. Most investors will be waiting for government interventions rather than confidence that the markets are efficient.
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GOLD ST CAPITAL said:
I think its the sales numbers and the chock hold appl has on the market that will propel the stock to 1,500. I firmly believe the apple LCD television will take a big chunk out of samsungs market share in TVs. If done well (which it likely will) Apple will dominate mobile phone and television. 

I really do not see what is standing in apple's way; the company has no debt, releases slight iterations of the same product that people cannot get enough of and most of all does what no other electronics companies really does. Apple takes a holistic approach to their products which in this day in age as technology gets more complex the avg person is more propelled to gravitate to. I predict with apple TVs successful release you will see 1,000 apple shares within 2 years. The key to apple hitting 4 digits is its ability to maintain its grip on mobile; with samsung blocked there is a Strong likely hood apple's reign will continue.
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Too much garbage.


News react to stocks. Stocks DO NOT react to news. Think about this, and just think harder. When you see it, you'll see it. The crap you spit out on the above; I've heard oh so many times already. To say that a company's stock price will levitate to a target price w/ product release contingency is bull sh8t.

Also, price pays, not what the company does. The company can have the best financials and you might not be able to even make a dime off of it. You can be playing with the best company in the world and still fail, and lose money.

As usual, some talking head comes on board and makes a pedestal sales pitch. The market is a dynamic entity, a dynamic beast in which YOU cannot tame. Anytime, someone talks about this target price, or prediction, I already know how silly they really are.
 
RunningFishy said:
Too much garbage.

News react to stocks. Stocks DO NOT react to news. Think about this, and just think harder. When you see it, you'll see it. The crap you spit out on the above; I've heard oh so many times already. To say that a company's stock price will levitate to a target price w/ product release contingency is bull sh8t.
Also, price pays, not what the company does. The company can have the best financials and you might not be able to even make a dime off of it. You can be playing with the best company in the world and still fail, and lose money.
As usual, some talking head comes on board and makes a pedestal sales pitch. The market is a dynamic entity, a dynamic beast in which YOU cannot tame. Anytime, someone talks about this target price, or prediction, I already know how silly they really are.
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As annoying as you are, I actually agree. Look at AMZN, Missed earnings and still claimed higher. Or LNKD people have been saying it is overvalued for months and months.
 
RunningFishy said:
Too much garbage.

News react to stocks. Stocks DO NOT react to news. Think about this, and just think harder. When you see it, you'll see it. The crap you spit out on the above; I've heard oh so many times already. To say that a company's stock price will levitate to a target price w/ product release contingency is bull sh8t.
Also, price pays, not what the company does. The company can have the best financials and you might not be able to even make a dime off of it. You can be playing with the best company in the world and still fail, and lose money.
As usual, some talking head comes on board and makes a pedestal sales pitch. The market is a dynamic entity, a dynamic beast in which YOU cannot tame. Anytime, someone talks about this target price, or prediction, I already know how silly they really are.
Click to expand...
Just based on your news reacts to stocks and stocks do not react to news sentence; really states your armature way of digesting economics and especially investment products. How long have you been doing this? you claiming News react to stocks and have no empirical evidence... but let me inform you, you neophyte.

Stocks and news react to each other, they are interdependent. countless times within this financial crisis this has been shown. example 1 when the S&P was getting killed in 2008 the announcement  of government intervention via TARP would increase the S&P to such gains for the day the numbers looked manipulated. Literally the market could loose 500 points in a day and climb back up to close positive 200. I was invested in the market at this time and saw this myself. This article further touches on it http://www.selfdirectedinvestor.com...the-market-crash-in-2008-historicalinsig.htm/

Markets do react to to news, predominately government news. example 2 QE3

On Sept 13 QE3 was announced US markets ended positive in reaction to the news http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-september-13-112525873.html even with apple edging higher due to the unveiling of IPhone 5. This should have already been priced in and not have mattered, however 1.4% increase from the previous day close of 669 which was the accounment date for the iphone 5 and a jump in price to 682 on the 13 the next trading day.

even RMBS products and their derivatives which have been at all time highs, jumped 3% higher (this seems small but in a trillion dollar market this is a big move)

I don't accept your trivial thought that the two are not interdependent. Some stocks do seem to not be heavily affected by bad news, such FreakyDestroyer said, however what happened with Knight Capital after it revealed what occurred with its trading error? To that question I will side with you and say, the market saw something happen and adjusted accordingly. So what happened when it was reported that Knight would look for funding because it may need to file bankruptcy? The stock got pummeled again. I can give so many scenario's where news effects stocks. 

News affects stocks because the average investor acts on news not trends in the stock market. The markets are efficient; the spoils always go to those who go there first. Usually institutions get there first because they have enough money to withstand a positions development into there chosen position of long or short

The stock market is informed speculation for lack of a better word. Legal gambling in which individuals are looking for an edge, like in black jack or poker, to increase probability in their favor.

NOW to touch on lose of money playing the best company in the world. Of course you can loose money playing a company with no debt, but the probability that you will is smaller. That is what people are looking for. Also being ignorant with your money and not knowing why you are buying a stock at a set price or what your exit strategy is, will always be the fault of the investor. The latter sentence is generally why people loose money in good stocks, they have no ability to manage the position

From the articles you have read about apple increasing in price as well as my post reply are what is constituted as a prediction. This is what analyst do, give educated predictions of how an investment will perform. Get your head out of your *** man, nothing expressed here is Gospel. from apple's high at 700 there is 300 points more to go. This stock has done 300 points in just over a year. Probability speaking if it can dominate the TV space while keeping a lock on mobile, the stock has a strong chance to reach 1,000. 

Get a grip man, you calling BS and my lack of knowledge and cannot even prove why your statement is correct. Your statement is only half correct.

I will give a full break down of how News and Stock effect each other in the next blog post.

You just talk a good fight, but do not know why you are talking. ***** with that miss informed nonsense. 
RunningFishy said:
LOLZ...
What's the name of your company?
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Gold Street Capital
 
Don't mind him, he's a troll. Once in a while he'll throw in something halfway meaningful and even then it's hard to take him seriously.
 
GOLD ST CAPITAL said:
I think its the sales numbers and the chock hold appl has on the market that will propel the stock to 1,500. I firmly believe the apple LCD television will take a big chunk out of samsungs market share in TVs. If done well (which it likely will) Apple will dominate mobile phone and television. 

I really do not see what is standing in apple's way; the company has no debt, releases slight iterations of the same product that people cannot get enough of and most of all does what no other electronics companies really does. Apple takes a holistic approach to their products which in this day in age as technology gets more complex the avg person is more propelled to gravitate to. I predict with apple TVs successful release you will see 1,000 apple shares within 2 years. The key to apple hitting 4 digits is its ability to maintain its grip on mobile; with samsung blocked there is a Strong likely hood apple's reign will continue.
Click to expand...

Great points and I mostly agree.
A few concerns however, which may cause quite some volatility.
First off the tv set, which I think is an amazing idea, however rumors say it won't be introduced until 2014, which means Apple most likely won't be introducing a new product for quite a while and with the release of the iPad over 2 years ago, Apple will face and is already facing it, that they haven't/and there's a large chance they won't introduce a fundamentally new product for 4 years, which is pretty long.

The small iPad, must be mentioned as something new, but because of it's predecessor it isn't, it just targets other markets, because of it's price. But there's the example of the smaller macbook air, which did boost sales, but still can't be a too significant contribution.
In addition their mac sales aren't doing good, Apple is winning the ultrabook competition, with a huge chunk of the market in their hands. But the Airs are responsible for a huge part of their mac sales, which is good, but even with these facts and the introduction of the new retina MBP have only managed to produce a small hike in sales. And considering the potential this field carries I don't think it would be a bad idea for Apple to compete with Windows using other tools as well. And it's important that the construction of a 15" MBP is about 1000$, which means their's a huge profit margins.

Just some stats from Apple's reports in Macs:

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Of course tablets have impacted the MAc and computer market, but there is still a huge demand for laptops and desktops.

Last but not least there are the very high expectations, which are usually unreasonable and I must question the sustainability of such growth.

Although I must emphasize that the fundamentals, the branding and the products of this company are all amazing and regardless I also think that if all goes well stock prices can reach 850$ by the end of 2013 and with the introduction of a tv set 1000$ can be very likely by 2014.
 
nocomment6 said:
Great points and I mostly agree.
A few concerns however, which may cause quite some volatility.
First off the TV set, which I think is an amazing idea, however rumors say it won't be introduced until 2014, which means Apple most likely won't be introducing a new product for quite a while and with the release of the iPad over 2 years ago, Apple will face and is already facing it, that they haven't/and there's a large chance they won't introduce a fundamentally new product for 4 years, which is pretty long.
The small iPad, must be mentioned as something new, but because of it's predecessor it isn't, it just targets other markets, because of it's price. But there's the example of the smaller macbook air, which did boost sales, but still can't be a too significant contribution.
In addition their mac sales aren't doing good, Apple is winning the ultrabook competition, with a huge chunk of the market in their hands. But the Airs are responsible for a huge part of their mac sales, which is good, but even with these facts and the introduction of the new retina MBP have only managed to produce a small hike in sales. And considering the potential this field carries I don't think it would be a bad idea for Apple to compete with Windows using other tools as well. And it's important that the construction of a 15" MBP is about 1000$, which means their's a huge profit margins.
Just some stats from Apple's reports in Macs:
Of course tablets have impacted the MAc and computer market, but there is still a huge demand for laptops and desktops.
Last but not least there are the very high expectations, which are usually unreasonable and I must question the sustainability of such growth.
Although I must emphasize that the fundamentals, the branding and the products of this company are all amazing and regardless I also think that if all goes well stock prices can reach 850$ by the end of 2013 and with the introduction of a tv set 1000$ can be very likely by 2014.
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Great write up, I see what you mean by sales falling short on Mac's, do you see the Ipad Mini having a strong run like the ipad nano did? 

The TV market could be huge. Right now Samsung holds a large chunk of market share in TV's. With the lawsuit on patents won by apple (although there are appeals) Samsung better focus on those TV's. With all the integration apple will institute with its TV, samsung could become a shell of itself a' la RIM
 
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cguy610 said:
This. Nothing goes straight up. What Apple has been able to do is remarkable but consumers move on to the next new thing. Just like people used to love Blackberry's.
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I used to be in the same boat as you- an AAPL skeptic. But in trading or investing it is better to ride the trend like the adage says. Sometimes shorting AAPL is the way to go but dragon slaying does not pay that well and it takes great precision and timing to short this monster. So it's better to just ride it up and take profit when it slows down. As for this "nothing last forever" debate, here are some things to keep in mind. Apple does not just have a brand, they have a cult following something that blackberry and all those other companies never had. I mean when did people camp out for a fukkin blackberry? Or sell a liver for one? Another factor to look at is the younger generations, they will grow up thinking that the Mac is the "default" computer. Just like we thought the PC was for the past few decades. Just food for thought.

RunningFishy is right in the sense that more often than not the market does not move with rhyme and reason. Just because some company comes out with a great new product and has a nice balance sheet does not mean the stock will move accordingly. Discovering a stock that is "overvalued" or "undervalued" is not very pertinent to trading like most would think. It's like how people say that Air Jordan's and Beats by Dre headphones are overpriced, and you can find comparable products from other brands for a fraction of the price. The price is dictated by supply and demand or whatever the market believes it is worth.
 
cguy610 said:
This. Nothing goes straight up. What Apple has been able to do is remarkable but consumers move on to the next new thing. Just like people used to love Blackberry's.
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I have to disagree somewhat, like freakydestroyer said, Apple has a brand built completely differently. In addition, they've done something way more important: diversify. They don't stubbornly stick to one design and a handful of products having the same function in different price ranges. You can buy hip and relatively inexpensive music players, tablets, desktops, laptops and phones.

And taking on the tv market won't be easy, but the only real opponent they have is Samsung, with the declining sales of Panasonic and Sony, their job is much easier to some extent.

About the iPad mini, I can see sales coming in, because many who couldn't afford the iPad will be able to buy this, thus be a part of team Apple. But on contrary I find it a pretty dangerous area for Apple, because many consumers like the fact that by having an Apple product they're in a league of their own, a rich league. And although it is likely some consumers may turn to other brands, because this won't be so elite anymore. Although there are so many Apple products already, I don't know. It's a two way cannon it could be a great move to attract more customers or it can scare of a few, but I suppose that's why Apple has been a visionary company, they're willing to take risks.
 
GOLD ST CAPITAL said:
I think its the sales numbers and the chock hold appl has on the market that will propel the stock to 1,500. I firmly believe the apple LCD television will take a big chunk out of samsungs market share in TVs. If done well (which it likely will) Apple will dominate mobile phone and television. 

I really do not see what is standing in apple's way; the company has no debt, releases slight iterations of the same product that people cannot get enough of and most of all does what no other electronics companies really does. Apple takes a holistic approach to their products which in this day in age as technology gets more complex the avg person is more propelled to gravitate to. I predict with apple TVs successful release you will see 1,000 apple shares within 2 years. The key to apple hitting 4 digits is its ability to maintain its grip on mobile; with samsung blocked there is a Strong likely hood apple's reign will continue.
Click to expand...

call me the apple pessimist or what u will. but i feel apple is getting greedy (per all the litigation of patents, etc) and can only sustain continued growth at these levels for so long. hence them expanding their product lines into television, streaming music, mini ipads etc. simply trying to dominate in every aspect is no easy task. especially with other companies finally realizing they need to innovate rather copy apple (eg windows 8, blackberry 10, samsungs mobile phones look to be headed in the right direction as of late)

my 2cents
 
shookONEZ said:
call me the apple pessimist or what u will. but i feel apple is getting greedy (per all the litigation of patents, etc) and can only sustain continued growth at these levels for so long. hence them expanding their product lines into television, streaming music, mini ipads etc. simply trying to dominate in every aspect is no easy task. especially with other companies finally realizing they need to innovate rather copy apple (eg windows 8, blackberry 10, samsungs mobile phones look to be headed in the right direction as of late)
my 2cents
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problem with those phones is they are almost carbon copies of what iphones look like and they lack the ability to function properly. especially blackberry. exp (blackberry storm)
 
yeah, unfortunately that's true. I mean they aren't bad products and compared to their price there are some great bargains, but when it comes to usability and performance, I don't think that many have a shot at Apples success, especially with the aura surrounding the brand. Question is if (and if yes, then which) company will be able to overcome Apple.
As of now, I can't think of one brand that has a legitimate shot at this.
But learning from the past i.e. SOny, it can and with time is most likely will happen, but fundamentally new innovations are needed for that.
 
Speaking of which, it looks like the market is in a downtrend and AAPL wants to go along with it. If it breaks 660 down we go!
 
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