calibeebee
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- May 6, 2007
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Just got my updated boostie. Pfizer gang still going skrong #gangganggang
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Everybody I know has some congestion right now but not nausea or anything.
Pa
Pardon my ignorance but is Avian flu and Bird flu the same thing? Neither has been passed on to humans yet?
The most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of scientific studies conducted on the efficacy of masks for reducing the spread of respiratory illnesses — including Covid-19 — was published late last month. Its conclusions, said Tom Jefferson, the Oxford epidemiologist who is its lead author, were unambiguous.
“There is just no evidence that they” — masks — “make any difference,” he told the journalist Maryanne Demasi. “Full stop.”
Opinion | The Mask Mandates Did Nothing. Will Any Lessons Be Learned? (Published 2023)
“Do something” is not science, and it shouldn’t have been public policy.www.nytimes.com
The most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of scientific studies conducted on the efficacy of masks for reducing the spread of respiratory illnesses — including Covid-19 — was published late last month. Its conclusions, said Tom Jefferson, the Oxford epidemiologist who is its lead author, were unambiguous.
“There is just no evidence that they” — masks — “make any difference,” he told the journalist Maryanne Demasi. “Full stop.”
Opinion | The Mask Mandates Did Nothing. Will Any Lessons Be Learned? (Published 2023)
“Do something” is not science, and it shouldn’t have been public policy.www.nytimes.com
The review includes 78 studies. Only six were actually conducted during the Covid-19 pandemic, so the bulk of the evidence the Cochrane team took into account wasn’t able to tell us much about what was specifically happening during the worst pandemic in a century.
Instead, most of them looked at flu transmission in normal conditions, and many of them were about other interventions like hand-washing. Only two of the studies are about Covid and masking in particular.
Furthermore, neither of those studies looked directly at whether people wear masks, but instead at whether people were encouraged or told to wear masks by researchers. If telling people to wear masks doesn’t lead to reduced infections, it may be because masks just don’t work, or it could be because people don’t wear masks when they’re told, or aren’t wearing them correctly.
There’s no clear way to distinguish between those possibilities without more original research — which is not what a meta-analysis of existing work can do.
The most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of scientific studies conducted on the efficacy of masks for reducing the spread of respiratory illnesses — including Covid-19 — was published late last month. Its conclusions, said Tom Jefferson, the Oxford epidemiologist who is its lead author, were unambiguous.
“There is just no evidence that they” — masks — “make any difference,” he told the journalist Maryanne Demasi. “Full stop.”
Opinion | The Mask Mandates Did Nothing. Will Any Lessons Be Learned? (Published 2023)
“Do something” is not science, and it shouldn’t have been public policy.www.nytimes.com
Digging into the research on masks and Covid
Those studies that did take on Covid and masks directly often painted a different picture than the broader conclusions from the meta-analysis.
One of the largest studies of mask-wearing during the Covid pandemic was conducted in Bangladesh, with more than 170,000 people in the intervention group and similar numbers in the control group. The authors studied a series of public announcements and mask distributions which raised the frequency of mask-wearing. In the end, around 40 percent of the experimental group wore masks, compared to around 10 percent in the control group.
The result, the study found, was a substantial reduction in the share of people with Covid-19-like symptoms, and in antibodies that would suggest a Covid-19 infection: “In surgical mask villages, we observe a 35.3% reduction in symptomatic seroprevalence among individuals ≥60 years old ... We see larger reductions in symptoms and symptomatic seropositivity in villages that experienced larger increases in mask use.”
That looks like pretty substantial evidence that mask-wearing reduces Covid-19! And this article is one of only two studies of mask-wearing included in the Cochrane review which happened during the Covid-19 pandemic. The other, a study in Denmark, assigned people to wear masks (though, of course, not all of the people told to wear masks did so consistently or correctly) and had a control group that generally did not wear masks. The group that was told to wear masks had slightly lower infection rates than the group that didn’t wear masks, but the sample was too small for the effect to be significant.
Given that — one study finding very solid evidence for the benefits of masks, and one finding limited but encouraging evidence — how did Cochrane arrive at its conclusion that mask wearing “probably makes little or no difference?” Because their meta-analysis mixes these studies with many more pieces of research that were conducted before Covid-19 and found little effect of masks on the transmission of other illnesses like influenza.
Science is full of judgment calls
The new Cochrane review paper strikes me, and may strike you, as something of a scientifically irresponsible way to represent these findings. It gets at one of the core challenges of science: There is no methodology that can straightforwardly find answers in messy study data without many judgment calls by scientists, who are humans with their own strength, weaknesses, and eccentricities. A meta-analysis, after all, can’t meta-analyze itself.
“I was really surprised that the Cochrane group let this go through,” Jake Eaton, a public policy and global health researcher who was the lead researcher on a Cochrane review of childhood nutrition, told me. “The fact it’s looking at masks across different settings and with different diseases makes it really tricky. Cochrane reviews are very good if you really want to assemble the most rigorous evidence and say, ‘Do we have a conclusive signal that this works?’ This is something of a perverse use of a Cochrane review.”
The big problem is the sheer scope of the question: not “does masking reduce Covid transmission during a pandemic?” but “does masking help against all respiratory illness across contexts?” Because of the questions it chooses to consider and the ways it chooses to aggregate its evidence, it has arrived at a mask-skeptical conclusion with limited applicability to the hot-button question we all care about: whether there’s evidence for masking during high-transmission periods in the Covid-19 pandemic.
You should post the entire article