**LA LAKERS THREAD** Sitting on 17! 2023-2024 offseason begins

pmatic said:
John Hollinger has been ranking free agents all week. Here are where the Laker free agents stand.

D’Angelo Russell, 27, L.A. Lakers: $26,867,883
This high a valuation for Russell may surprise some people, but despite Russell’s shortcomings as a defender and penetrator, few can match his skill level from middle distance and the 3-point line. Russell shot insanely well this season, with his 54.8 percent mark on 2s being notable for a guard who rarely gets to the rim and his 39.6 percent from 3 a career best. Russell was awful in the Western Conference finals, but he was able to stay on the floor in the first two rounds against Ja Morant and Steph Curry because of his shot making.

Overall he was 41st in offensive BPM this season; most of the guys in the top 40 are on max or near-max deals, and at 27, Russell is entering his prime. I get it if you’re a bit underwhelmed by the idea of Russell in a high-stakes postseason game, but the Lakers could do a lot worse than bringing him back. I should note that his contract also offers sign-and-trade possibilities if the Lakers go looking for upgrades.
Dennis Schröder, 29, L.A. Lakers: $11,787,703
Schröder was a big part of the Lakers’ playoff run, offering surprisingly solid defense in addition to his periodic jolts of bench scoring. While he’s not everyone’s cup of tea as a decision-maker, he can make an open shot and is threatening enough off the dribble to demand attention.

Unlike the Clippers, the Lakers have more avenues to signing Schröder for his market value because they can also operate as a cap room team this summer. Realistically, however, that scenario only applies if they can sign somebody orders of magnitude better than Schröder. A more plausible scenario is one where L.A. retains its projected taxpayer midlevel exception of $6.65 million by staying below the “second apron” of the new CBA all season; L.A. could re-sign Hachimura, Russell and Reaves and still comfortably skirt that.
Austin Reaves, 25, L.A. Lakers (restricted): $22,865,329
Is Austin Reaves worth the max “Gilbert Arenas” offer sheet? It looks like he might be. A breakout star in the Lakers’ run to the conference finals, Reaves is the rare case of a player limited by the so-called Arenas rule because he signed a two-year contract when he entered the league.

That limits him to signing with the Lakers for the league’s average salary, projected at $12 million a year. However, an offer sheet from another team has different rules. It can pay him the midlevel exception in the first two years, (starting at $11.4 million), and the max salary in the third and fourth years of the contract, which would come in at $36.8 and $38.5 million, respectively.

Such an offer sheet would pay him a total of $98 million over four years, which is not entirely out of line with his BORD$ valuation. The twist is that the Lakers can’t offer this to Reaves: The maximum L.A. can do on its own is $53 million over four years. That larger deal would have to come in the form of an offer sheet from another team, one with at least $25 million in cap space. There are softer versions of this that are possible; for example, bumping up the third and fourth years to a mere $25 million would require only $18 million in cap room.

The good news for the Lakers is that their cap sheet can handle this offer sheet structure, because the Reaves salary bump would happen right as LeBron James’s contract expires (if he picks up his player option) at the end of 2025. That makes it less likely another team will offer it — why burn through the entire moratorium plus a one-day matching period on an offer sheet that will just get matched? — and likely leave L.A. in a strong position to retain Reaves at midlevel exception-type money.
Malik Beasley, 26, L.A. Lakers (team option): $6,904,193
As noted earlier this month, the smart money is on the Lakers declining Beasley’s $16 million option for 2023-24 because he never provided anywhere near that level of value for them. L.A. would retain his Bird rights if it declines the option and could re-sign him for significantly less.

That said, the Lakers are likely to have competition. Beasley struggles on defense and is coming off a bad year, but his shooting (37.8 percent career from 3, with exquisite form) will be tempting for a lot of teams. He could have offers as high as the non-taxpayer MLE given the paucity of shooting in the marketplace.
Lonnie Walker IV, 24, L.A. Lakers
I’m going to violently disagree with BORD$; Walker will get more than the minimum thanks to his emergence in the second round of the playoffs despite a meh regular season that saw him deep-sixed from the Lakers’ rotation after the trade deadline.

Walker can get lost on defense and remains a shockingly ineffective rebounder for somebody who is 6-4 and can jump (4.5 percent rebound rate!), but one thing he did last year was shoot more efficiently. A career-best 36.5 percent mark makes him a credible floor spacer if he can repeat it, while 52.2 percent inside the arc is notable for a guard.

I’d look for Walker to get attention around the biannual exception or taxpayer MLE; the Lakers have no Bird rights on him but can pay up to $7.7 million as a non-Bird free agent. Their situation vis a vis the two luxury-tax aprons may work against that, however, especially if they prioritize re-signing Dennis Schröder with their MLE.
Troy Brown Jr., 23, L.A. Lakers: $9,580,364
A good sleeper candidate for teams in need of a 3-and-D wing, Brown fared better on the “3” part than in past stops by knocking down a career-best 38.1 percent from distance. That was the biggest weakness keeping Brown from emerging in Washington and Chicago, and as a result he was a rotation regular for the Lakers who started 45 games. Brown isn’t a high-wire athlete and that limits his shot creation ability, but he can handle the ball and make the right play, and defensively he uses quick hands to make up for average feet.

Coming off a minimum deal, Brown will be an unrestricted free agent with no Bird rights, and the Lakers will be in a difficult position to re-sign him given their other priorities and tax situation. Still just 23 years old, he could be a value addition for teams in need of wing help, especially on a multiyear deal for less than the MLE.
Rui Hachimura, 25, L.A. Lakers (restricted): $4,999,881
This feels low after a playoff run where he posted a 16.0 PER on 66.8 percent true shooting, but Hachimura had a fairly meh regular season in both Washington and L.A., landing at 31.9 percent from 3 (in a much bigger sample!) and still forcing things too often offensively. Even so, Hachimura will surely have offers higher than this BORD$ estimate; in fact, his qualifying offer of $7.7 million will exceed it.

The Lakers are incentivized to bring back Hachimura in any scenario where they don’t use cap space, provided they can keep the dollars reasonable and stay below the second tax apron. That could leave them vulnerable to a predatory offer sheet from another team, and they should definitely have a walk-away number in mind. But Hachimura fit better in L.A. than he did in Washington, and I’d expect him to provide decent value on anything south of the midlevel exception.
Mo Bamba, 25, L.A. Lakers (non-guaranteed): $5,882,261
Bamba has a non-guaranteed deal with the Lakers worth $10.3 million; he’s not worth that money for any team, but especially not one that already has Anthony Davis. Unless his contract can be used in a trade, the expectation is that he’ll be waived by his June 29 guarantee date.

Bamba hardly played for the Lakers after his trade there, but in Orlando, he shot 39.8 percent from 3 and blocked 2.7 shots per 100 possessions, delivering somewhat on his “3s-and-blocks” unicorn potential. Bamba still disappoints on the glass and with his general defensive intensity, but at this point, he’s a pretty useful offensive weapon to bring off the bench.
Wenyen Gabriel, 26, L.A. Lakers
Gabriel plays with tremendous energy, but he’s badly undersized for the middle at 6-9, 205 pounds, and hasn’t shown enough skill to warrant minutes on the perimeter. The Lakers likely need to look for an upgrade at backup five, but he has a chance of sticking around as a fifth big because he’s a mobile defender and plays so hard.
Click to expand...
TBJ only 23 y/o is pretty encouraging, but Hollinger got no chill on his 10mil/yr evaluation
 
DLF said:
He’s using a computer program to come up with those numbers.
Click to expand...
Need to re-evaluate that algorithm or something. I like TBJ and think he improved this year, but some players going to be taking pay cuts under the new CBA
 
atlsfinest said:
It's funny that we scrutinize guys who get deep in the playoffs and don't perform well like Dlo but seem to covet guys who have never played a playoff game in their entire career like Lavine.
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This was literally D'Lo's first year in the playoffs past the first round and he was really good for only 2.5 games. We need to be better than Denver and he was unplayable in that series.

Zach has been in the playoffs before but more than that he's bigger, more athletic, better 3pt shooter and a much more aggressive scorer which is what we need at the guard position if we're going to seriously challenge the Nuggets next season.
 
Low IQ people are still saying “that laker trade didn’t really do much bc by the end of the playoffs D’lo Beasley and Bamba were unplayable anyways”


Completely discounting what Vando did to Ja and Curry in game 1. Dismissing what D’lo did the first two rounds in spurts. Oh and dismissing what those guys did in the regular season to let us win more.

Idiots
 
:lol: every single time.

Lakers and DLo are a match of necessity. It’s likely the best it gets for either of them.

They beat the Nuggets if Bron and AD were as good as Jokic and Murray, simple as that.
DLo’s play factors into it. But so does Vando. AR. Dennis.

As for who to be a PG. The answer isn’t someone who needs the ball a lot (LaVine or Kyrie) who was 27,28, 29% usage. You need low 20s, high teens PG in terms of usage. Otherwise, you are taking the ball away from AR.

Also LaVine’s contract is exactly what Woj is talking about. A third max level player salary wise decimates any continuity going forward. To get LaVine would require making the tough decision on Rui. And declining Beasley as well. Maybe passing on Lonnie. And limits what they do with any exception as well. Where they likely end up splitting the exception.
 
BIG LEEMELONE said:
Bron/AD/Reaves played well enough to win. Dlo played like ****. It's no comparison
Click to expand...

Yeah. DLo did play ******.

AR gave up 36 points in Game 1.
Dennis 18.
DLo 18.

The team that blew leads and/or couldn’t close in Game 3 & 4 were non-DLo lineups.

But again. Jokic and Murray were better than Bron and AD by a lot. Let’s stop ignoring that at every facet the Nuggets were better.

Doesn’t excuse DLo. But same thing the Heat saw. Bam and Jimmy were not as good as Jokic and Murray and that’s most of the difference.
 
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Contracts 2022-2023: Bron-44.5mil AD-38mil AR-1.6mil DLo-31.4mil

Game 1:
Bron: 26pts/12reb/9ast
AD: 40pts/10reb/3ast
AR: 23pts/2reb/8ast
DLo: 8pts/0reb/3ast

Game 2:
Bron: 22pts/9reb/10ast
AD: 18pts/14reb/4ast
AR: 22pts/3reb/5ast
DLo: 10pts/3reb/5ast

Game3:
Bron: 23pts/7reb/12ast
AD: 28pts/18reb/1ast
AR: 23pts/7reb/5ast
DLo: 3pts/3reb/4ast

Game 4:
Bron: 40pts/10reb/9ast
AD: 21pts/14reb/1ast
AR: 17pts/2reb/3ast
DLo: 4pts/2reb/2ast

objective data of players contracts and their performances vs Denver
 
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D’lo plays 40 percent better and we win the title. Even with nuggets hitting impossible shot after impossible shot.

Bring everyone back. Minor tweeks
 
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