Lets See How Smart NTers are : The Monte Hall Problem

[prez t]

learned about this problem years ago in stats class and figured id post it and see what NTers thought about it . its called the Monte Hall Problembecause it was used on the 70s game show "Lets Make a Deal" and Monte Hall was the host . for those NTers who have seen this already and know theanswer don't reveal it ! anyway on to the problem :

there are 3 doors numbered 1 , 2 and 3 . behind one door is a brand new car and behind the other two is a bag of sand . without beingable to see what's behind the doors , you choose to pick one (let's say you pick door 1) . after you pick door 1 , Monte Hall opens door 3 and revealsa bag of sand behind it . after revealing that door 3 isnt the desired door for the car , he gives you the option to either stay with door 1 or switch to door2 before revealing which door has the car behind it . what should you do ?

ill post the answer later on ...

 

[chiqga]

answer is here --------> (click the +)

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just kidding, made you click

 

[kicksnbeats]

I guarantee somebody is going to try to google the answer

 

[ekimman]

stay

be confident with your pick

 

[745i]

Put a gun to Monte's head....

 

[floater23]

stay with 1

 

[freshproduct]

Originally Posted by kicksNbeats

I guarantee somebody is going to try to google the answer

I'm guilty

 

[kneenoh]

Switch IDK why but switch

 

[18th letter]

Originally Posted by FreshProduct

Originally Posted by kicksNbeats

I guarantee somebody is going to try to google the answer

I'm guilty

me too

 

[davis]

i've heard of this one using cards in folders, but forgot the answer

 

[joseph camel jr]

Clearly switch...2/3 chance of getting it as opposed to 1/3.

An easier example would be if there were 100 doors, you pick one, and 98 are opened, leaving you with the one you chose and one closed one.

Now what are the chances that you picked the correct door? One in one hundred. Chances that the other door is the correct one? Ninety-nine in one hundred. Easycall.

 

[frankmatthews]

You have a 1 and 3 chance of winning if you stay, a 2 and 3 chance of winning if you switch. I don't really understand why, but thats the answer

 

[falcon4567]

I'll say 1

 

[prez t]

i was thinking about not putting the name of theproblem in the title because i knew people would look it up . just dont spoil it for the people who dont know

 

[kell78dogg]

switch it duh.

 

[ljlukelj]

You should always switch.

 

[i love af1]

I'd do a barrel roll

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actually I would stay with door 1

 

[aj fanatic]

I'd say switch because he showed you that door 3 is a bag of sand. Chances are he would've picked the first door with a bag of sand behind it but ifyou already picked one then door three would be the other one. I could be reaching but that's my logic. But in an actual game I would probably stick withwhat I picked.

 

[youngdipset20]

Originally Posted by kicksNbeats

I guarantee somebody is going to try to google the answer

Guilty

 

[maza4ever14]

i wiki'd it up and i still dont get it. but before i saw the answer i said i woulda stayed with the first door i picked.

 

[zerogravity23]

you have a better shot of winning the car by switching.

 

[sohi 23]

1st door

 

[dunkaroos]

SWITCH

.5 > .333333

 

[skip2mylou23]

My boy in my Stats class showed me this and I guess the right answer but I didn't know how to explain why. After I learned it, I went telling all thepeople I know about it.

 

[k2theablam]

I think you're all wrong. It's the same either way. You have a 50% chance of the car being behind door one or two.

BEFORE he revealed door three, you had a 33% chance. Now, it comes down to 50%, door 1 or 2. There is no point in switching, unless your gut tells yousomething.