**LOCK NEEDED** 2018-19 NFL thread/ macbk has his back stabbed. Everyone go to nickmaz' thread!

Once and for all - who should create the new 2018-19 Season Thread?

  • macbk

    Votes: 14 38.9%

  • aNYone

    Votes: 10 27.8%

  • Nike Jordan

    Votes: 1 2.8%

  • No new thread, keep this current one as is

    Votes: 4 11.1%

  • nickmaz

    Votes: 7 19.4%
  • Total voters
    36
  • Poll closed .
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You guys remember when the Washington Senators beat the New York Giants in the 1924 World Series?

What a time.
 
Since my ESPN insider account is about to end soon

I'm going to post this here for some consumption

QB Tiers revisited: Risers, fallers and a look to the future

NFL quarterbacks have launched, tossed, shoveled, flipped and otherwise delivered more than 11,000 passes this season. Some QBs are rising, others are falling and a great many are what 2017 QB Tiers voters thought they were heading into the season.

Nearly four months after 50 coaches and evaluators voted all projected starters into five possible performance tiers, it's time to revisit some of the more interesting cases. I've singled out a combination of 16 risers, fallers, newcomers and players who are otherwise fun to debate right now. First, here's a refresher on each tier:

Tier 1: Can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. Expertly handles pure-pass situations.

Tier 2: Can carry his team sometimes, but not as consistently. Can handle pure-pass situations in doses or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3.

Tier 3: A legitimate starter, but needs a heavier run game and/or defense to win.

Tier 4: Could be an unproven player with some upside, or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

Tier 5: Should not start under any circumstances.
Click to expand...


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Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

2017 Tier: 4

Projected 2018 Tier: high 3

Goff landed in the fourth tier following a brutal 2016 rookie season that saw him go 0-7 as a starter under difficult circumstances. He is thriving now within an offense stabilized by veteran additions to the offensive line and the playcalling of Sean McVay, whose special ability as an offensive schemer helped him become a head coach at age 31.

By featuring running back Todd Gurley II in an offense heavy on play-action passes from under-center formations, McVay has made it tougher for opposing defenses to train their crosshairs on Goff as frequently. That was the case against New Orleans on Sunday. when Goff completed 11 of 15 attempts for 137 yards on play-action passes or screens (plus 48 yards for a defensive pass interference on another play-action attempt).

The next step for Goff could be proving he can carry a heavier load when the team falls behind or plays a well-established elite defense. The Rams averaged 10 offensive points per game against the three best defenses they have faced (Seattle, Jacksonville, Minnesota). Down 27-20 to Washington with 1:44 to play in Week 2, Goff threw an interception on the first play of the Rams' would-be-tying drive. He did nearly throw the winning touchdown pass against Seattle after leading the Rams down the field in Week 5, and he was excellent against a Saints defense that was highly ranked but playing without its top two corners.

An offensive coordinator quoted in the 2017 QB Tiers article nailed it before the season when he said Goff could conceivably "move toward a 3 this year with the idea of becoming a 2 one day." The conversation is no longer about how bad Goff was, but rather about how good he might become.

"I'm a little bit surprised it has looked this smooth," the same voter said Sunday, "but they did a good job getting weapons around him, and that has helped. It really helps when you have a back like Gurley who can do the things he can do. I'm not by any means convinced that he is there yet, but he definitely is a very good young prospect, no question."

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

2017 Tier: 3

Projected 2018 Tier: 2

Some voters thought Wentz, more than Goff, had a chance to challenge for the first tier ultimately. One GM quoted in the 2017 QB Tiers article said he thought Wentz was a 2 already, with a chance to become a 1 this season. This GM called Wentz the "pick of the litter" among emerging young quarterbacks in the league for his toughness, movement, arm, quickness, decisiveness and accuracy.

It's tough to argue with those optimistic assessments now that Wentz is leading the league in touchdown passes for the 10-1 Eagles. As always, there are factors beyond the individual player contributing to the improvement. The Eagles upgraded their weaponry at wide receiver, and coach Doug Pederson's increased commitment to the running game has made life easier for Wentz.

How well Wentz performs when good teams shut down that rushing attack could influence how many Tier 1 votes Wentz commands this coming offseason. He continues to dominate on third down, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Since 2006, only Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have had higher single-season Total QBRs on third down than the 91.4 for Wentz this season (minimum 100 third-down pass attempts).

Josh McCown, New York Jets
2017 Tier: 4

Projected 2018 Tier: 3

The 38-year-old McCown might not be a starter heading into next season, but his play in 2017 shows he was more viable than voters thought he would be. McCown has done a better job avoiding unnecessary contact when he runs with the ball. His discretion has helped him stay on the field. As one voter put it over the summer, McCown is a Tier 3 quarterback for as long as he lasts. McCown has lasted longer than anticipated, one reason the Jets have beaten expectations this season. He does still try to do too much, such as his refusal to take a sack in Sunday's game that led to a fumble the Panthers returned for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.

"He finally has a little defense to play with, and that makes a difference," one voter said. "What's really amazing is, everyone talks about how Brady is 40, but McCown is probably playing as well as he has ever played, and he is [almost] 39, and Brees is right there too."

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

2017 Tier: 1

Projected 2018 Tier: 2

Ryan had been a Tier 2 QB for years, but his 2016 MVP season led some voters to push him into the top tier, allowing him to barely make the cut in that group. Ryan has settled back into previous form, which seemed predictable, especially with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan leaving for San Francisco.

Ryan will likely fall back into the second tier next preseason without voters fundamentally changing their views of him. A similar phenomenon pushed Cam Newton to the brink of the top tier following his 2015 MVP season before he, too, predictably settled back into well-established form. The true Tier 1 QBs play that way year after year, while a few others rotate into their orbit for stretches.

Eli Manning, New York Giants

2017 Tier: 2

Projected 2018 Tier: 3

Manning had no running game going into the season and then lost his top receivers, so there are clearly strong outside forces contributing to his performance.

"He needs help and he needs it three ways: big-gun receivers, the run game and defense," one voter said. "He has zero of them. It is too leveraged on him."

If Manning were truly a Tier 2 QB at this point, however, wouldn't he sometimes carry the Giants regardless? That doesn't seem to happen.

"I think part of it is disillusionment with everything," said a voter whose team faced the Giants this season. "They didn't help him with the offensive line, they lost a couple good receivers. Listen, I think they would be even worse if he wasn't there, but when we played him, you could tell he was worried about getting hit, and it was not good."

Jay Cutler, Miami Dolphins

2017 Tier: 3

Projected 2018 Tier: 4

Cutler was a late addition to the 2017 QB Tiers ballot, forcing me to gather votes from coaches and evaluators who had already completed the survey. It's possible some simply recalled Cutler as they had seen him a few years ago, not as injuries were keeping him off the field late in his Chicago tenure. Injuries have again kept Cutler off the field, but his performance while on it seems fourth-tier worthy. The reality, of course, is that Cutler probably will not be on a roster next season.

"He's actually playing better now than at any time in the past two years," one voter said. "He has [bad] protection just like in Chicago and throws it more accurately, more of the time."

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
2017 Tier: 1

Projected 2018 Tier: 1 or 2

Roethlisberger seems able to summon top-tier powers when needed, but he does not play that way consistently. Voters still might admire his abilities and track record sufficiently to keep him in the top tier, but he went into Week 12 with 23 interceptions since the start of last season, same as Blake Bortles and Eli Manning. Tier 1 mainstays Brady and Rodgers have combined for 15 picks over the same time period. The Steelers do win because of Roethlisberger, but they also have a top-five defense and arguably the game's best running back, increasing their QB's margin for error.

"He is the same as Matt Ryan," one voter said. "I would take Ben in a big game before I would take Matt Ryan. He can extend plays better. But neither one is great enough consistently enough to be in that top tier with Brady or Rodgers."

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Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2017 Tier: 1

Projected 2018 Tier: 1 or 2

Brees carried the Saints and made them competitive for years while their defense was historically bad from a statistical standpoint. New Orleans' running game and defense have lightened the load for Brees this season. He has carried them at times as needed, including in Week 11, when he completed his final 11 passes of regulation to force overtime and shock Washington. Those who went into the season thinking Brees had slipped into the second tier from a physical standpoint might give the defense and running game much of the credit for the Saints' improvement.

"If you have a 2A and a 2B in the second tier," one voter said, "then Brees is in that 2A group right at the top. He's so much better than some of those guys at the bottom of the second tier."

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Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2017 Tier: top of 3

Projected 2018 Tier: 3

There were two primary reasons Prescott barely missed the second tier following his surprising rookie season. Some voters were unwilling to anoint him after one season. They wanted to see him do it again, after defenses had time to adjust. Voters also thought running back Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' offensive line were disproportionately responsible for the team's offensive success.

"I feel like he is a high-Tier 3, possibly low-Tier 2 guy, but I feel like a lot of the reason he was so good is because of everything around him -- the line, the running back, the weapons, the coordinator," a defensive coach said over the summer.

Twenty-four of the 50 voters placed Prescott in the second tier anyway.

Prescott was well on his way to showing he could produce at a high level for a second season until Elliott started serving a six-game suspension. The entire offense imploded once Elliott could not play, and Prescott has so far been helpless to reverse the trend. Prescott has 14 touchdown passes with four interceptions and a 78.2 Total QBR with Elliott on the field this season. He has zero touchdowns with five picks since Elliott started serving his suspension.

"When they did it last year, everything was hitting," a voter said. "Everything was great. Tyron Smith never got hurt. The back was playing every week. It was like Matt Ryan last year, where they were at the best they could have been with that offense. Now, it's tougher."

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Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Tier: 3

Projected 2018 Tier: 3

Smith looked like a Tier 2 QB for stretches under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco. He looked better than that for stretches under Andy Reid in Kansas City, including when he started this season with 15 touchdown passes and no picks through seven games.

Smith is not looking that way during the Chiefs' current three-game losing streak. The more Smith and the offense struggle, the more likely it seems Smith could play elsewhere next season.

"I don't think he is elite by any stretch, but I liked the way he was playing early in the year and I respect him," a voter said. "I don't understand why they have struggled."

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Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
2017 Tier: 2

Projected 2018 Tier: high 2

Wilson is carrying an offense featuring no reliable conventional ground game. Sometimes he plays brilliantly, as he did when he outgunned Houston during a memorable shootout with Deshaun Watson in Week 8. Sometimes he commits costly turnovers and has trouble generating offense, as the case was during a 17-14 home defeat to Washington, or Sunday's game against San Francisco, when he completed 8 of 19 first-half passes and threw a pick on the first play. Wilson will generate more top-tier votes in 2018 if he shows greater consistency and Seattle finishes strong.

"Here's a guy that, when pieces are missing, he can win," one voter said Sunday. "He finds ways to win. He has a complete game. He can do it with his feet, running around with his arm, he can do it in the pocket with his arm. You'd like to see the offense play a little more consistently over time, but they don't have a line."

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Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
2017 Tier: 3

Projected 2018 Tier: 3

Mariota's ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions (9-to-12) places him in unexpected company. Brett Hundley, C.J. Beathard and DeShone Kizer are the only qualifying QBs with worse ratios. Five of the six QBs with passer ratings lower than Mariota's 79.1 have been benched or entered the season as backups.

Why, then, isn't Mariota listed among players likely to fall in 2018 QB Tiers polling? For the same reason Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston and a few others enduring underwhelming seasons aren't listed there: All were already in Tier 3 with the other QBs who need more from their defenses and/or running games. The hope was for Mariota to ascend this season. While his Total QBR (58.2) ranks 12th on the strength of rushing contributions, nothing about 2017 feels like a step forward yet.

While Mariota is averaging four rushes per game (same as 2016) and 4.8 yards per carry (down from 5.8), diminishing returns on the ground from the Titans' running backs could be making his job tougher. There is talk among coaches and evaluators that DeMarco Murray appears near the end.

"For a while, they had two backs going and were fooling people a little Chip Kelly-like, and people have caught up to what they are doing," a voter theorized. "Sometimes it feels like they're almost afraid of getting Marcus hurt again, and his hands are tied a little bit."
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Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings

Projected 2018 Tier: 3

Keenum has exceeded expectations through 10 appearances (nine starts) with 14 touchdown passes, five interceptions, a 77.4 Total QBR and, most surprisingly, only seven sacks on 349 pass plays. What does it mean? It could mean Keenum is a good quarterback. It could mean Keenum is playing at a level far above what he might sustain. It could mean the Vikings get more from their players than other teams might get from theirs.

"It's a little bit like an Andy Dalton," a voter theorized. "If he has all the pieces around him, he can play like a lower Tier 2 guy. If he does not, he is barely a 2, probably a high 3."

The chart below compares Keenum's numbers in nine starts this season with predecessor Sam Bradford's numbers in his nine most recent starts with Minnesota. Those numbers are similar, except for Keenum taking fewer sacks:

"The guy is living a charmed life right now," another voter said. "He made a couple throws last week where he got spun around, threw it up and the receiver made a play for him. I think they have a strong defense, their receivers are good and he is a gritty guy who is doing well. They are on a roll. I just think at some point it's going to come down to him having to do it and they will fall short, but it's great to see after the way he got a bad deal in L.A. last year."

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Projected 2018 Tier: low 2 or high 3

Watson threw 18 scoring passes and had an 82.9 Total QBR in six starts before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. He and Keenum are 1-2 in Total QBR for starting QBs this season -- not bad for guys who were second on their depth charts in Week 1.

"If we are scoring him just off the games he has played and that's it, then Watson is probably a 2," a voter said. "If you need more information, then he probably starts in 3 with an arrow pointing up. I would start him in 3 because there's not enough information yet, and he's injured."

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Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2018 Tier: low 3 or high 4

Brissett faced a difficult situation coming to Indy by trade right before the season and then stepping into an under-talented lineup. He's taken 43 sacks in 11 games (10 starts) and hasn't had much chance for success. I think QB Tiers voters will be sympathetic, although if Andrew Luck returns to health, Brissett will not be in the lineup next season.

"He will have some plays where you kind of cringe, but you look at all these young quarterbacks playing, and if I am Cleveland's owner, I'm wondering why we don't have Brissett," a voter said. "Put Brissett in Jacksonville and, oh man. He has a lot of courage in the pocket and is better than some of those midlevel starters you see out there."

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Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Projected 2018 Tier: 4

The Bears continue to de-emphasize Trubisky within their offense, which is why he has only four touchdown passes with four interceptions in seven starts. His numbers through seven starts compare to Goff's numbers through seven starts last season. Can Trubisky make a Goff-like jump in his second season with improvements at wide receiver and a more enterprising approach?

"He can't throw to win right now and they suck at receiver, so it is hard to tell," a voter said. "If they can't play defense and hand the ball off 38 times, it is going to be hard for them to win."
 
Gronk getting an extra bye before the Steelers game isn't a bad thing. I think he deserved worse. But I'm glad he only got 1.
 
Jimmy Smith tore his achillies yesterday.

He could serve the suspension while injured?
 
@DeadsetAce

listening to lombardi now.. dude has wentz as MVP.. everything good eagles is scwartz (and doesnt talk at all about the mistakes he made last night.. i literally called the deep play to baldwin when scwartz went zero blitz)

while i agree wentz is an MVP candidate and so is brady.. wilson is doing the most with the least.. any other QB and we are getting home with our defense and winning in spite of our mistakes and questionable calls
 
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