From Long Live Locke Blog. Some food for thought. (selected sections- see website for full write-up)
Personally I think she could be right about Des being THE Variable. And as far as the Free Will vs. Fate issue goes. I think there is no question that FreeWill prevails. We humans want to have Free Will, we want to have control. All epic movies about Free Will vs Fate feature human Will as the winner. I meanwouldn't it be a little depressing to find out that no matter what we do we can't change fate? I just think most people want to see that ending andthat is the ending the writers will give us.
I'm now convinced the most important scene of the night was one I originally didn't pay much attention to: the exchange between Penny and Hawking inthe hospital's waiting room.
MS. HAWKING: I came, Penelope,to apologize. Your husband has become a casualty in a conflict that's bigger than him, that's bigger than any of us.
PENNY: What do you mean? Is Des gonna be okay?
MS. HAWKING: I don't know. For the first time in a long time, I don't know what's going to happen next.
So here's my take on all of this. Let's revisit Season Three, when we saw Hawking try to convince Des of what he was "supposed" to do in thetrippy "Flashes Before Your Eyes." She told him that if he didn't fulfill his destiny of going to the Island and pushing the button in the Swan,then everyone in the world was going to die.
But knowing what we know now, I can't help but think that she may have been fibbing a bit about Desmond's purpose. Yes, he definitely took overresetting the Countdown Timer o' Doom after he accidentally killed Kelvin (who was planning to abandon his hatchmate)... but what else did Des do?He caused 815 to crash. Maybe Hawking knew that without Desmond, certain things critical to the ongoing protection ofthe Island -- including one John Locke landing there -- wouldn't happen.
You might be thinking,"But if Hawking is so gung-ho about destiny, why did she feel the need to say anything to Des at all? Why wasn't she secure in the fact that ifDesmond's fate was to end up pushing the button, then the universe would see to it that Desmond ended up pushing thebutton -- with or without her help?"
My answer to you would be, "Because Hawking has always known that DESMOND is 'The Variable.'" That's why, when the Scotsman's lifehung in the balance in the hospital, it was the first time that Eloise panicked and realized, "Oh, crap, now I'm like the rest of the bloody fools onthis planet and have no idea what's going to happen." Hawking knows that only Des can right whatever action he made in the past that set off "thewrong" chain-reaction of events on the Island. Forget about The Incident at the Swan... all of that was supposed to happen. The hatch was supposed to bebuilt, 815 was supposed to crash, etc., etc. But once Des started messing with Charlie's fate, that's probably when things went awry. I've madethis argument a lot this season, so I'm not going to repeat it all again here... I just wanted to say that this scene between Penny and Hawkingstrengthened my belief that Desmond's the key to fixing everything, and that's why "the Island's not done with him yet," as Eloise saidearlier this season.
Two more things that supportthis theory:
- Why would Hawking turn up at the hospital to see what happened to Desmond in the first place, if he wasn't critical to helping the universe tocourse-correct? (And on a side note, how did Widmore get there so quickly? Wasn't he in London a few hours earlier when Ben called him from the marina?)
and
- This episode's title was "The Variable." But Daniel -- in his rant to Jack before he ran off into the Hostile's camp -- only talked aboutvariables in equations. He always used the plural form of the word. I admitthat I could be reading too much into things at this point, but I believe that the episode's title was a clue that Daniel had it all wrong in his finalexchange with Jack when he said, "Us. We're the variables." They are not the variables... there is only one variable, and it's Desmond.
Have I convinced you yet? No?That's OK, because I'm not totally convinced myself. "Desmond is The Variable" is just one of a few theories that I feel the most stronglyattached to. I'll discuss the others at the end of this post.
Before we head back thirty years, I should probably quickly mention the fact that two mysteries were solved through the scenes I've covered so far: 1)Widmore did stage the Oceanic crash (though technically this was confirmed in the clip show the week prior), and 2) Widmore and Hawking are Daniel'sparents, meaning that he and Penny are most likely half-siblings.
Finally, let me say here, for the record, that I'm really nervous about how Little Charlie was left alone in thehospital. Really. Nervous.
Now what's going to happen? The only dude who had any clue as to what was going on just kicked the bucket?!?!
With only one episode left beforethe two-hour finale on May 13th, I've started thinking about theories in the context of the following two questions:
1) What would make for a jaw-dropping Season Five cliffhanger?
and
2) How would the final season of the series play out based on that cliffhanger?
I've never been one to tie myself to a single theory, and I don't think that there could ever be one overridingexplanation for everything that's gone on in the show. So here are the three theories I'm considering as Season Five comes to an end -- they only dealwith the question of whether or not the Losties will be able to change the past... and not any of the other mysteries like "What is the SmokeMonster?"
(I haven't visited other Lost sites to come up with these theories as spoilers always seem to be around everycorner when the finale nears each year. So rest assured that these are just my own thoughts and are not based on known spoilers.)
1) Desmond is The Variable
I covered this one a bit earlier in this post, but here's how I think it would play out this season and next: The Losties try to follow Daniel'sjournal instructions to prevent The Incident, but they fail. Season Five will end with the chaos of The Incident taking place, which includes something thatmakes all of the 815ers return to 2008. Alternatively, something Locke does in '08 may help the time-traveling group get back to their rightful year.
In the meantime, Penny and Des are going to find out that Charlie has been kidnapped and they will be told he was taken to the Island (whether that's true,I'm not sure). Season Six will then show Des and Penny back with the others on the Island, which gives Des a chance to correct whatever it was he messed upthe first time around, as he is The Variable. Des and Penny might end up in the past, and they might end up as the skeletons in the cave. While Des is doinghis thing, the 815ers will spend the season fighting "the war" on the Island in 2008. The series will end with us finding out whether or not Des wasable to change the past.
2) Free Will Wins
Daniel was right -- the Losties can change their destiny... or at least the destiny for the versions of themselves that are still kids in 1977. So Season Five will end with the hydrogen bomb exploding and TheIncident being prevented and the 815ers looking at each other like, "That. Just. Happened." I still think that they'll somehow return to 2008when the bomb goes off, and now we'll have Jack vs. Locke all over again, as both characters have been emboldened by circumstances that strengthen theiroriginal Science and Faith stances. Jack was able to prevent The Incident (score one for free will!)... and Locke was resurrected by the Island (score one fordestiny!).
Season Six will start off with the 815ers not understanding why they're still on the Island if they stopped the chain of events that Daniel warned themabout. But they will soon come to understand that their pasts cannot be changed... only the pasts of their 1977baby/kid selves and beyond are affected.
The best character to help explainthis Miles, since we've now seen two of him on the Island in 1977. If the hydrogen bomb goes off and The Incident is prevented, Adult Miles will still havecome to the Island in December 2004 because Charlie, who will have still crashed on the Island via Flight 815 in September of that same year, will have openedup communications. But Baby Miles will have a totally different life now that The Incident has been avoided in hispresent. He and his mom might not be sent away from the Island, or even if they are, he might reunite with his fatherand go on to live a completely different life from one of a scamming ghostbuster. Get it? So once Season Six tries to explain that in a way that will make sense to the average viewer (good luck, guys), the series will focus on the 815ers in 2008.They're still on the Island and still need to fight "the war."
The series will end with both the present 815ers finding a way to leave the Island and having to make the decision whether or not they want to go back home(Jin and Sun definitely will because of their daughter, but I'm not sure if anyone else will) AND a shot of the Flight 815 that the other version of themselves (who were kids in 1977) boarded landing safely in LA. If they were on that flight at all.
Confusing, I know... but I like it. This is what I hope happens.
3) Destiny Wins
Season Five will end with the Lostaways failing to prevent The Incident, after which they will be transported back to 2008. Season Six will probably continueto have Jack hellbent on changing things until he learns he can't with the help of New Locke. They'll all band together to fight "the war."
Since "whatever happened, happened," the final season will fill in all of the pieces that have been missing for each character and will explain allof the other mysteries without having to deal with multiple versions of events. The series will end with the 815ers facing a choice whether or not to stay onthe Island forever or leave for good. And, as many of us have suspected all along, we'll see Flight 815 crash all over again and Jack wake up in thejungle.
All three theories above share the following elements:
1) The time-traveling characters will return to 2008, most likely by the end of Season Five. (Or that will be part ofthe cliffhanger and we'll see that they're back in 2008 in the first episode of Season Six.)
2) There's no avoiding "the war" on the Island once everyone's back together in 2008. I'm still betting on the fact that it's NewDharma, led by Bram and Ilana with the help of whatever's in their crate. The Losties will have essentially come full circle since their plane originallycrashed. They will now work with the Others to help protect the Island from new intruders. Poetic, no?
3) Absolutely nothing thathappens is going to "erase" the original Flight 815 crash for the characters we've come to know and love. (Whether or not they can prevent thecrash for future versions of themselves, however, is up in the air. See theories 1 and 2.)
I've said before that I think it would be an extremely depressing note for the series to end on if we find out that everything is predetermined and that nobody can do anything to change his or her fate. So I'm hoping either some version oftheory 1 or 2 comes to pass, though I admit that they would be much harder to execute than theory 3. For now, however, I can dare to dream.
BEST LINES OF THE EPISODE
MS. HAWKING: ... I'm Eloise Hawking, and I believe it's my son's fault that Desmond has been shot.
PENNY: Your son is Benjamin Linus?
MS. HAWKING: [Scoffs] Good lord, no.
DR. CHANG: That is utterly absurd. What could possibly qualify you to make that kind of prediction? Hmm?
FARADAY: I'm from the future.
FARADAY: Hey, James.
SAWYER: Welcome to the meeting, Twitchy. Good to see you again. Pound cake's in the kitchen. Help yourself to the punch. [To Miles, in a lowered voice] Ishe still crazy?
MILES: It's on a whole new level, man.
FARADAY: Well... why would you tell me that?
WIDMORE: Because come tomorrow, you won't remember I did.
SAWYER: Your mother is an Other?
FARADAY: You met her, actually, when the Island was skipping, back in 1954. They were calling her "Ellie."
HURLEY: You guys were in 1954? Like...Fonzie times?
JACK: She can say what she wants to say. Kate... You made me promise to never ask what happened to Aaron, or why you came back here. But I know that reasonisn't... it isn't here. [Scoffs] It's not now.
SAWYER: Whatever her reason is, helping H.G. Wells here talk to his mommy ain't got nothing to do with it.
KATE: This is a mistake. He's talking about erasing everything that's ever happened to us, Jack. It's insane.
JACK: We disappeared off a plane in mid-air and ended up in 1977. I'm getting kinda used to insane.
(For once, it's Jack instead of Hurley who speaks for the audience!)
MS. HAWKING: I came, Penelope,to apologize. Your husband has become a casualty in a conflict that's bigger than him, that's bigger than any of us.
You might be thinking,"But if Hawking is so gung-ho about destiny, why did she feel the need to say anything to Des at all? Why wasn't she secure in the fact that ifDesmond's fate was to end up pushing the button, then the universe would see to it that Desmond ended up pushing thebutton -- with or without her help?"
Two more things that supportthis theory:
Have I convinced you yet? No?That's OK, because I'm not totally convinced myself. "Desmond is The Variable" is just one of a few theories that I feel the most stronglyattached to. I'll discuss the others at the end of this post.
With only one episode left beforethe two-hour finale on May 13th, I've started thinking about theories in the context of the following two questions:
1) Desmond is The Variable
2) Free Will Wins
The best character to help explainthis Miles, since we've now seen two of him on the Island in 1977. If the hydrogen bomb goes off and The Incident is prevented, Adult Miles will still havecome to the Island in December 2004 because Charlie, who will have still crashed on the Island via Flight 815 in September of that same year, will have openedup communications. But Baby Miles will have a totally different life now that The Incident has been avoided in hispresent. He and his mom might not be sent away from the Island, or even if they are, he might reunite with his fatherand go on to live a completely different life from one of a scamming ghostbuster. Get it? So once Season Six tries to explain that in a way that will make sense to the average viewer (good luck, guys), the series will focus on the 815ers in 2008.They're still on the Island and still need to fight "the war."
3) Destiny Wins
3) Absolutely nothing thathappens is going to "erase" the original Flight 815 crash for the characters we've come to know and love. (Whether or not they can prevent thecrash for future versions of themselves, however, is up in the air. See theories 1 and 2.)
HURLEY: You guys were in 1954? Like...Fonzie times?
