Well, it's only April 21, but this baseball season is already over 10% done. I know it's crazy, but every 16-20 games I will try to break each teamdown and give a look ahead for the next segment of the season.
As much as it hurts to say, let's start at the top, with the Cubs:
1. Chicago 12-6
What's happened: Three of Chicago's 6 losses have been by 2/1 runs, so it isn't astretch to think that the Cubs could actually be more along the lines of 14/15 wins. Then again, the Cubs have been helped by having to face the Pirates 6times in the early going, of course taking all 6. Wood has been solid out of the bullpen, the starting rotation has been top-heavy, getting solid outings fromZambrano (but giving up a lot of hits) and Dempster. Lilly, Marquis, and Hill have been decent, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. On theoffensive side of the ball, Derek Lee is a beast. Johnson and Theriot have been pleasant surprises, I wouldn't doubt Lee maintaining his current pace butthe latter 2, I am not too sure about. It will be nice to see what this offense does against other teams in the NL besides the Pirates (my Lord, 52 runs in 6games = almost 9 a game!)
The next 10%: The Cubs do start off nicely, with a 2 game set against the Mets at home sans Johan.After that, they will play 11 of their next 14 on the road including series with the Rockies, Reds, and BIRDNALS
. The Cubs, however should be able to keepup this nice pace IF they can keep smacking the living hell out of the ball. If the hitting drops off (I suspect it will) then the pitching will have to pickup some of the slack.
2. St. Louis 12-7 (0.5 GB)
What's happened: Obviously, the Cards good start has been a pleasant surprise to many here inSt. Louis. For whatever reason 4 of the 7 losses have come to the Giants, and thanks to MLB's scheduling, we will not see them for the rest of the season.So far, the 5-man OF rotation has gone well, with the exception of Duncan. Schumaker (pronounced Shoe-MACH-er for crying out loud) has become a viable leadoffoption, as Barton, Ankiel, and Ludwick all have filled in nicely. Izzy has been very consistent, and the bullpen has been fairly good in limited outings. TheCardinals starters so far have gone 10-5, with the only real flaw being Pineiro, who was one of the better pitches for the late run of last season. And Iwouldn't go without mentioning Pujols, who has been Pujols.
The next 10%: It is not unreasonable to say Mulder could come back by the 2nd week in May, but evenif he does, who drops from the rotation? Major decisions for La Russa could be ahead. The Cardinals will play every team in the Central over the next 13 games,which they will hopefully win at least 4 out of those 5 series. A 9-game home stand should help the fact that the Cards have had just one off-day so far thisseason.
3. Milwaukee 11-7 (1.0 GB)
What's happened: It has been a strong start for the Brew Crew, especially since they have beenon the road for 12 games and home for only 6 thus far. They are also 6-6 in the Central, and it must be noted that they have yet to play the Astros or thePirates. They have played the majority of their young season without Tony Gwynn Jr., which will certainly add some more pop to the lineup once he returns.Obviously, we have heard that Fielder is struggling, especially power wise, but I don't think that will become a trend either. Especially when you look atBraun and Hall, the Brewers have greatly underachieved and are only 1 game out. As for pitching, Gagne remains under question, and outside of Sheets thestarters don't have much of an identity. If Milwaukee is in the hunt come August, look for management to seek out a solid number 2 starter.
The next 10%: Milwaukee will be home for 7 and once again on the road for 9. Florida will be 6 ofthose games, look for the Brewers/Marlins series' to be entertaining. St. Louis will visit tonight and tomorrow, with their No. 1 and 2 going, so look forthis home stand to be a building block heading into May. A lot of questions hopefully will be answered by mid-May, such as: Will Braun be as productive as hewas last year? Will Prince start hitting long balls? Will Gagne stop worrying about the Mitchell report and get after it? Also, look for Bill Hall to cut downon his K's, he currently is 2nd in all of baseball with 22 whiffs.
4. Cincinnati 8-11 (4.5 GB)
What's happened: Somebody explain this: a split with the Phillies, 2 of 3 from the D'Backs,and they proceed to be swept by the Pirates? Just like the previous statement, so far the Reds have been, well, confusing. As far as pitching goes,Harang's 1-2 record doesn't look pretty, but he is averaging 7 IP a start. Volquez has been dynamite, while Fogg and Arroyo have been less thanimpressive. On offense, this kid Keppinger (info on him please!) has 4 strikeouts -- in 76 AB's, with a .329 AVG as well. Besides him, nobody from the Redslineup really sticks out as a major contributor. Griffey is giving all he can at his age, Dunn really needs to start hitting to ball for the Reds to succeed.
The next 10%: The Reds will will have a tough 9 game road trip with trips to St. Louis, SanFrancisco, and Atlanta on tap. It is quite simple for the Reds - they need to start hitting the ball. With the top 3 teams in the Central playing good ball,the Reds need to start winning now to avoid falling out of the NL Central race early.
5. Pittsburgh 7-11 (5.0 GB)
What's happened: Nothing too new here. Once again, pitching woes plague the Pirates, as everystarter in the rotation has an ERA over 4.00 already. Nate McLouth has been arguably the story of the year so far, hitting .382 along with 3 HRs and 16 RBIs.Nady, Doumit, and Bay have been also swinging a decent bat, but usually the game is already so out of hand it doesn't really matter. If Pittsburgh can mendsome of their pitching woes, look for them to string some Ws together, but that will also include the lineup producing at a good pace. If the Pirates can getinto the later innings of a game with a lead, Capps and the rest of the bullpen have the ability to shut it down.
The next 10%: The Pirates first must rebound from the pounding they took from the Cubbies over theweekend. Without trying to be too technical, this team really needs some kind of consistency from it's rotation. They open up a 7-game home stand againstthe Marlins tonight, and their next 4 opponents (Fla, STL, Phi, NYM) have a combined record of 42-31. Look for McLouth to cool off eventually, but look for theoffense to still put up runs on the board.
6. Houston 7-12 (5.5 GB)
What's happened: Let me first say this - if you watch the Astros play, putting the recordaside, it is difficult to see them where they currently are. Look at their lineup: Lee, Tejada, Berkman, Pence. Not out of this world, but they are certainlybetter than 7-12. After looking at their schedule though, it is easy to see their early season slump. So far, the worst team they have played is either thePhillies or the Padres. Not so easy. While their hitting has been alright, their starting pitching has been just awful. Their "Ace" Oswalt is 1-3with an ERA of 6.65. The back end of the rotation hasn't been pitching well either. In fact, no Astros' starter has 2 wins! On the better side ofthings, the 'Stros bullpen has been decent, winning 4 of the 7 so far. Tejada has been his usual self, but unfortunately for the Astros has been the onlymajor offensive producer.
The next 10%: Things don't get any easier for the Astros, as they will go on the road against 2of the better NL teams in St. Louis and Arizona. For Houston to improve on it's dismal start, they will need to get more quality starts, and a morebalanced offense. Good thing it is still early, and a lot of the problems the Astros have faced are not uncommon in the MLB season's early going.
Well that's all I've got for now. All constructive criticism and insight is welcomed and appreciated.
A post like this isn't complete unless I have something to look back on.
PROJECTED STANDINGS ON FRIDAY MAY 9:
1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Reds
5. Astros
6. Pirates
