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In this space one year ago, Washington was the pick to win the Pac-12 championship.
Now here we are again, peering nine months out, and I’m not prepared to make so bold a projection. Instead, I’ll take the Huskies to repeat.
Related Articles College Hotline: Pac-12 hit hard by NFL Draft exodus (in quality, if not quantity) College Hotline: Pac-12 football 2017 schedule analysis
Yep, it’s as simple and routine as that.
The Huskies were hardly an obvious pick last year: They hadn’t won the title in eons, were coming off a 7-6 season, and Oregon and Stanford were reasonably viewed as the division frontrunners.
This time around, UW is hardly an outside-the-box call.
Yes, you could make a good case for USC based on the way the Trojans finished ’16 and what they have returning.
You could, if so inclined, make a reasonable case for Stanford to reclaim the title.
Same with Washington State, Colorado and Utah, I suppose.
But the Huskies have fewer questions, a stronger case and, in the Hotline’s estimation, a clear path back to the trophy presentation.
*** NORTH
1. Washington: NFL Draft defections hit hard in Seattle, but it’s not like Stanford and USC escaped unscathed in that regard. Jake Browning and the offensive line should be even better, there are playmakers to offset the departure of John Ross, and the defensive front seven is loaded. The secondary is a significant issue, but the transition should be manageable given the strengths up front.
2. Stanford: So much depends on quarterback Keller Chryst’s recovery from knee surgery — the other option is a redshirt freshman, K.J. Costello — and the guess here is that Chryst is close to 100% for the meat of conference play. The running game should thrive with Bryce Love and a veteran line; there’s talent out wide, and the secondary will be the best in the conference.
3. Washington State: The depth chart, with so many returnees — not only Luke Falk but along the line of scrimmage and every level of defense — would seem to indicate another second-place finish. (Gabe Marks’ departure is a blow, but not an insurmountable one.) The way the Cougars finished ’16, however … the way they buckled when the competition improved … gives me significant pause.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers are on the ascent under third-year coach Gary Andersen and have most of their starting 22 returning. That includes the Ryan Nall-led power running game, which gives OSU (as with Stanford) an advantage over opposing defenses that face the spread passing attack each day in practice. But I’m skeptical … highly skeptical .. that the Beavers are ready to bust into the division’s top tier.
5. Oregon: I suspect that the Ducks will be the trendy turnaround pick in the Pac-12 because of the maturing offensive line, Justin Herbert’s experience (no FCS transfer!), Jim Leavitt’s expected impact on the defense and Willie Taggart’s arrival/culture change. Count me as wary of the turnaround materializing so quickly. I’ve got the Ducks pegged for an uptick in 2018, instead.
6. Cal: No quarterback and no defense is a bad combination, especially when you’re also overhauling the schemes, revamping just about every aspect of the program and play Washington and Stanford on the road. New coach Justin Wilcox will make the Bears relevant, but he needs time. Years of defensive neglect cannot be overcome in eight months.
*** SOUTH
1. USC: Trojans or Huskies? Huskies or Trojans? I went back and forth and ultimately settled on UW for one reason: Less chance of derailment. Whether it’s a curious coaching decision or wavering focus by the players or a knuckleheaded incident … anything is possible … the Trojans are more likely to experience something that knocks them off course than is a team coached by Chris Petersen.
2. Colorado: Look for the Buffs to be better on offense — Steven Montez has more arm talent than Sefo Liufau and plenty of options in the passing game — but take a significant step back on defense due to heavy attrition. There’s also the matter of playing with expectations, of catching everybody’s best shot, and that’s an entirely different existence.
3. Utah: Is there a safer pick in the conference, year in and year out, than the Utes for second or third place in the South? That should be the case in ’17 considering the mix of returning starters and attrition (especially on the offensive line). Bottom line: Need to see them navigate the stretch run successfully before I become convinced they can do it.
4. UCLA: The coaching changes were for the better, and I’m presuming Josh Rosen is healthy. But the Bruins don’t have an established identity on offense, they lack proven playmakers — the dearth of talent at receiver is mystifying given UCLA’s recruiting base — and the defense suffered significant losses. More than four wins? Sure. But eight or nine? That’s tough to envision.
5. Arizona: We’ll assume the Wildcats are able to play one quarterback for the majority of the season, which alone should be worth a couple wins. But there are too many holes on defense to expect a major jump. (Recruiting has such a small margin for error when you’re not one of the heavyweights.) The Wildcats should be more competitive but remain stuck in the division’s bottom tier.
6. Arizona State: Arguably the team with the greatest range of potential outcomes: The Devils have enough returnees on both sides of the ball to possibly work their way into contention. But when the focus shifts to bigger issues (program trajectory, effective schemes, etc), it becomes tougher to picture ASU reversing course. Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez came into the conference together. Will they go out together?
Now here we are again, peering nine months out, and I’m not prepared to make so bold a projection. Instead, I’ll take the Huskies to repeat.
Related Articles College Hotline: Pac-12 hit hard by NFL Draft exodus (in quality, if not quantity) College Hotline: Pac-12 football 2017 schedule analysis
Yep, it’s as simple and routine as that.
The Huskies were hardly an obvious pick last year: They hadn’t won the title in eons, were coming off a 7-6 season, and Oregon and Stanford were reasonably viewed as the division frontrunners.
This time around, UW is hardly an outside-the-box call.
Yes, you could make a good case for USC based on the way the Trojans finished ’16 and what they have returning.
You could, if so inclined, make a reasonable case for Stanford to reclaim the title.
Same with Washington State, Colorado and Utah, I suppose.
But the Huskies have fewer questions, a stronger case and, in the Hotline’s estimation, a clear path back to the trophy presentation.
*** NORTH
1. Washington: NFL Draft defections hit hard in Seattle, but it’s not like Stanford and USC escaped unscathed in that regard. Jake Browning and the offensive line should be even better, there are playmakers to offset the departure of John Ross, and the defensive front seven is loaded. The secondary is a significant issue, but the transition should be manageable given the strengths up front.
2. Stanford: So much depends on quarterback Keller Chryst’s recovery from knee surgery — the other option is a redshirt freshman, K.J. Costello — and the guess here is that Chryst is close to 100% for the meat of conference play. The running game should thrive with Bryce Love and a veteran line; there’s talent out wide, and the secondary will be the best in the conference.
3. Washington State: The depth chart, with so many returnees — not only Luke Falk but along the line of scrimmage and every level of defense — would seem to indicate another second-place finish. (Gabe Marks’ departure is a blow, but not an insurmountable one.) The way the Cougars finished ’16, however … the way they buckled when the competition improved … gives me significant pause.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers are on the ascent under third-year coach Gary Andersen and have most of their starting 22 returning. That includes the Ryan Nall-led power running game, which gives OSU (as with Stanford) an advantage over opposing defenses that face the spread passing attack each day in practice. But I’m skeptical … highly skeptical .. that the Beavers are ready to bust into the division’s top tier.
5. Oregon: I suspect that the Ducks will be the trendy turnaround pick in the Pac-12 because of the maturing offensive line, Justin Herbert’s experience (no FCS transfer!), Jim Leavitt’s expected impact on the defense and Willie Taggart’s arrival/culture change. Count me as wary of the turnaround materializing so quickly. I’ve got the Ducks pegged for an uptick in 2018, instead.
6. Cal: No quarterback and no defense is a bad combination, especially when you’re also overhauling the schemes, revamping just about every aspect of the program and play Washington and Stanford on the road. New coach Justin Wilcox will make the Bears relevant, but he needs time. Years of defensive neglect cannot be overcome in eight months.
*** SOUTH
1. USC: Trojans or Huskies? Huskies or Trojans? I went back and forth and ultimately settled on UW for one reason: Less chance of derailment. Whether it’s a curious coaching decision or wavering focus by the players or a knuckleheaded incident … anything is possible … the Trojans are more likely to experience something that knocks them off course than is a team coached by Chris Petersen.
2. Colorado: Look for the Buffs to be better on offense — Steven Montez has more arm talent than Sefo Liufau and plenty of options in the passing game — but take a significant step back on defense due to heavy attrition. There’s also the matter of playing with expectations, of catching everybody’s best shot, and that’s an entirely different existence.
3. Utah: Is there a safer pick in the conference, year in and year out, than the Utes for second or third place in the South? That should be the case in ’17 considering the mix of returning starters and attrition (especially on the offensive line). Bottom line: Need to see them navigate the stretch run successfully before I become convinced they can do it.
4. UCLA: The coaching changes were for the better, and I’m presuming Josh Rosen is healthy. But the Bruins don’t have an established identity on offense, they lack proven playmakers — the dearth of talent at receiver is mystifying given UCLA’s recruiting base — and the defense suffered significant losses. More than four wins? Sure. But eight or nine? That’s tough to envision.
5. Arizona: We’ll assume the Wildcats are able to play one quarterback for the majority of the season, which alone should be worth a couple wins. But there are too many holes on defense to expect a major jump. (Recruiting has such a small margin for error when you’re not one of the heavyweights.) The Wildcats should be more competitive but remain stuck in the division’s bottom tier.
6. Arizona State: Arguably the team with the greatest range of potential outcomes: The Devils have enough returnees on both sides of the ball to possibly work their way into contention. But when the focus shifts to bigger issues (program trajectory, effective schemes, etc), it becomes tougher to picture ASU reversing course. Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez came into the conference together. Will they go out together?
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