**OFFICIAL 2019 NBA OFFSEASON THREAD**
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the built in advantage the knicks and lakers have make it so much more pathetic how terrible they've been the last couple of years
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Frank the defensive monster should get the deal done ....: He like a Tony Parker X Kawhi collab in one b
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Interesting piece since people always talk about who rises or shrinks during the playoffs.
Ranking 10 players who overachieve most in the NBA playoffs
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty Images
Jun 9, 2019
Who are the NBA's best 16-game players?
That's the term coined by Golden State Warriors All-Star Draymond Green as he aided his team's scouting for last year's NBA draft, referring to the minimum number of playoff games necessary to win a championship. "There are 82-game players, then there are 16-game players," director of player personnel Larry Harris relayed to the media, quoting Green. The former excel during the regular season, while the latter save their best play for the postseason.
It's possible to read too much into the distinction. The variance in players' value during the regular season explains about 75 percent of the variance in their playoff value that same campaign. Still, some players do consistently perform better when the intensity ratchets up in the postseason, and Green is one of them -- as he proved again while helping the Warriors to their fifth consecutive appearance in the NBA Finals.
Besides Green, which current players best fit the "16-game" label? Let's take a look at the results of my statistical analysis.
The method
Simply comparing career playoff and regular-season value is unfair to players whose postseason appearances tended to be concentrated at the beginning or end of their careers rather than in their prime years. So to determine the biggest playoff overachievers, I started with the value provided in terms of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric on a per-game basis during the regular season, multiplied by playoff games.
One more step is necessary for a fair comparison. Players typically perform worse in terms of WARP during the playoffs for an obvious reason: The competition is much harder with the 14 lottery teams removed from the equation. The typical player sees his value decline about 15 percent on a per-game basis, so I accounted for this to create an expected playoff WARP each season. Add that up and you get the following list of biggest playoff overachievers. (Note that the rankings include this year's playoffs entering the NBA Finals.)
The top 10
1. LeBron James
56.6 expected WARP
70.8 actual WARP
14.1 difference
LeBron has four MVP trophies to prove he's a pretty good 82-game player. Still, James has outperformed his expected playoff WARP every postseason since his playoff debut in 2006.
It's understandable why LeBron would be more valuable in the playoffs. He's able to ramp up his minutes and focus his energy. That process accelerated after his return to Cleveland, as LeBron increasingly saved his best play for the postseason.
Over the past four playoff runs alone, he's provided 8.0 more WARP than expected -- more than the career total of any other active player.
2. Draymond Green
9.3 expected WARP
16.3 actual WARP
7.0 difference
Hey, there's Draymond, nearly the ultimate 16-game player. Green has beaten expectations in the playoffs every season of his career, which actually predates the Warriors' Finals run. He was valuable off the bench as a rookie when Golden State upset Denver in the opening round and capably started four games in place of Andrew Bogut in the team's 2014 first-round loss to the LA Clippers.
While he hasn't been as effective in the 2019 NBA Finals, Green has still overachieved this postseason. Not substantially better than replacement level during an uneven regular season, Green had a pair of triple-doubles as the Warriors swept Portland in the Western Conference finals.
3. Kawhi Leonard
13.8 expected WARP
19.2 actual WARP
5.4 difference
The MVP of the NBA Finals a full two seasons before his All-Star debut, Kawhi hasn't lost his knack for clutch performance as the most valuable player in the 2019 postseason by a wide margin.
A very good 3-point shooter during the regular season (38 percent), Leonard has hit an incredible 42 percent of his playoff 3s -- the fourth-best accuracy for any player in NBA history with at least 250 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com.
4. Rajon Rondo
10.0 expected WARP
14.1 actual WARP
4.1 difference
"Playoff Rondo" downplays any change in his approach, but as expected, he has typically been more valuable in the playoffs.
That peaked in 2012, when Rondo averaged 17.3 points, a league-high 11.9 assists and 6.7 rebounds as the Celtics came within a game of the NBA Finals. By my method, that was the third-most overachieving playoff run for any individual since 1978, trailing LeBron in 2018 and Isiah Thomas in 1988.
5. Dwight Howard
14.5 expected WARP
17.8 actual WARP
3.3 difference
Surprise! In the wake of his ill-fated post-Orlando career, it's easy to forget how dominant Howard was as the Magic reached the 2009 NBA Finals and got back to the conference finals as favorites the following year.
In fitting fashion, Howard had some of his best performances in early exits for his team, averaging 27.0 points in a first-round upset by Atlanta in 2011 and 26.0 PPG in a first-round loss to Portland with Houston in 2014.
6. Andre Iguodala
7.0 expected WARP
9.3 actual WARP
2.3 difference
Besides himself, Green might also have had Iguodala in mind when he discussed 16-game players. A solid but unspectacular playoff contributor in Philadelphia, Iguodala has been able to save his best effort for the postseason with the deep Warriors.
Like Green, the 2015 NBA Finals MVP has also had another overachieving playoff run this year, highlighted by making five 3s as Golden State closed out Houston on the road without Kevin Durant and his clinching triple in Game 2 vs. Toronto.
7. Russell Westbrook
16.1 expected WARP
18.2 actual WARP
2.1 difference
GIven three consecutive first-round exits, I wouldn't blame you for wondering about Westbrook's playoff credentials.
You can divide his postseason career into two very different periods: with and without Kevin Durant. With Durant alongside, Westbrook posted 2.5 more WARP than expected. Since Durant's departure, Westbrook has been 0.4 WARP worse than expected.
8. Bradley Beal
2.4 expected WARP
4.2 actual WARP
1.8 difference
Before he developed into an 82-game All-Star, Beal played at that level as the Wizards upset Chicago in 2014 and Toronto in 2015 in the first round and gave scares to higher-seeded opponents Indiana and Atlanta. He was worth 2.2 more WARP than expected in those two playoff runs.
9. Jrue Holiday
2.0 expected WARP
3.8 actual WARP
1.8 difference
At age 22, Holiday broke out with 15.8 PPG, 5.2 APG and 4.7 RPG in the 2012 playoffs as an Iguodala-led Sixers came within a game of becoming the second No. 8 seed to reach the conference finals. (Philadelphia's first-round upset of top seed Chicago was aided by Derrick Rose's ACL tear during that series.)
Sadly, Holiday has made just two playoff appearances in the past seven seasons, although he dominated the Portland backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in last year's surprising New Orleans sweep in the opening round.
10. P.J. Tucker
0.2 expected WARP
1.9 actual WARP
1.7 difference
Because he spent so long in the lottery in Phoenix after returning to the NBA, Tucker didn't make his playoff debut until age 31 after a deadline trade to Toronto. That's too bad, because since joining the Rockets, Tucker has proved to be their version of Draymond in many regards, including playoff overperformance.
Others worth noting
How about some notable players who didn't crack the top 10?
Despite his teams reaching the conference finals only once, Chris Paul ranks 12th among active players. As I've noted before, his teams' issues in the playoffs often had more to do with what happened when Paul was on the bench.
Kyrie Irving (14th) was in the top 10 on the strength of his Cleveland postseason heroics until this year's stink bomb against Milwaukee. Irving was 0.8 WARP worse than expected in the 2019 playoffs, putting him in the league's bottom 10 this year.
This year's heroics since Kevin Durant's injury have quieted the unsupported talk that Stephen Curry (18th) is an 82-game player rather than a 16-game one. Once you account for the general decline most players experience in the playoffs, Curry has beaten expectations, if not as much so as teammates Green and Iguodala.
Incidentally, Durant (62nd) actually has the weaker overall postseason résumé, entirely due to his time in Oklahoma City. Since joining the Warriors, Durant has been worth 2.1 more WARP than expected in the playoffs.
Lastly, 2017-18 MVP James Harden is the biggest star who's fallen short of expectations during the playoffs, ranking 182nd among active players with 0.3 fewer WARP than expected.
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty Images
Jun 9, 2019
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Kevin PeltonESPN Staff Writer
Who are the NBA's best 16-game players?
That's the term coined by Golden State Warriors All-Star Draymond Green as he aided his team's scouting for last year's NBA draft, referring to the minimum number of playoff games necessary to win a championship. "There are 82-game players, then there are 16-game players," director of player personnel Larry Harris relayed to the media, quoting Green. The former excel during the regular season, while the latter save their best play for the postseason.
It's possible to read too much into the distinction. The variance in players' value during the regular season explains about 75 percent of the variance in their playoff value that same campaign. Still, some players do consistently perform better when the intensity ratchets up in the postseason, and Green is one of them -- as he proved again while helping the Warriors to their fifth consecutive appearance in the NBA Finals.
Besides Green, which current players best fit the "16-game" label? Let's take a look at the results of my statistical analysis.
The method
Simply comparing career playoff and regular-season value is unfair to players whose postseason appearances tended to be concentrated at the beginning or end of their careers rather than in their prime years. So to determine the biggest playoff overachievers, I started with the value provided in terms of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric on a per-game basis during the regular season, multiplied by playoff games.
One more step is necessary for a fair comparison. Players typically perform worse in terms of WARP during the playoffs for an obvious reason: The competition is much harder with the 14 lottery teams removed from the equation. The typical player sees his value decline about 15 percent on a per-game basis, so I accounted for this to create an expected playoff WARP each season. Add that up and you get the following list of biggest playoff overachievers. (Note that the rankings include this year's playoffs entering the NBA Finals.)
The top 10
1. LeBron James
56.6 expected WARP
70.8 actual WARP
14.1 difference
LeBron has four MVP trophies to prove he's a pretty good 82-game player. Still, James has outperformed his expected playoff WARP every postseason since his playoff debut in 2006.
It's understandable why LeBron would be more valuable in the playoffs. He's able to ramp up his minutes and focus his energy. That process accelerated after his return to Cleveland, as LeBron increasingly saved his best play for the postseason.
Over the past four playoff runs alone, he's provided 8.0 more WARP than expected -- more than the career total of any other active player.
2. Draymond Green
9.3 expected WARP
16.3 actual WARP
7.0 difference
Hey, there's Draymond, nearly the ultimate 16-game player. Green has beaten expectations in the playoffs every season of his career, which actually predates the Warriors' Finals run. He was valuable off the bench as a rookie when Golden State upset Denver in the opening round and capably started four games in place of Andrew Bogut in the team's 2014 first-round loss to the LA Clippers.
While he hasn't been as effective in the 2019 NBA Finals, Green has still overachieved this postseason. Not substantially better than replacement level during an uneven regular season, Green had a pair of triple-doubles as the Warriors swept Portland in the Western Conference finals.
3. Kawhi Leonard
13.8 expected WARP
19.2 actual WARP
5.4 difference
The MVP of the NBA Finals a full two seasons before his All-Star debut, Kawhi hasn't lost his knack for clutch performance as the most valuable player in the 2019 postseason by a wide margin.
A very good 3-point shooter during the regular season (38 percent), Leonard has hit an incredible 42 percent of his playoff 3s -- the fourth-best accuracy for any player in NBA history with at least 250 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com.
4. Rajon Rondo
10.0 expected WARP
14.1 actual WARP
4.1 difference
"Playoff Rondo" downplays any change in his approach, but as expected, he has typically been more valuable in the playoffs.
That peaked in 2012, when Rondo averaged 17.3 points, a league-high 11.9 assists and 6.7 rebounds as the Celtics came within a game of the NBA Finals. By my method, that was the third-most overachieving playoff run for any individual since 1978, trailing LeBron in 2018 and Isiah Thomas in 1988.
5. Dwight Howard
14.5 expected WARP
17.8 actual WARP
3.3 difference
Surprise! In the wake of his ill-fated post-Orlando career, it's easy to forget how dominant Howard was as the Magic reached the 2009 NBA Finals and got back to the conference finals as favorites the following year.
In fitting fashion, Howard had some of his best performances in early exits for his team, averaging 27.0 points in a first-round upset by Atlanta in 2011 and 26.0 PPG in a first-round loss to Portland with Houston in 2014.
6. Andre Iguodala
7.0 expected WARP
9.3 actual WARP
2.3 difference
Besides himself, Green might also have had Iguodala in mind when he discussed 16-game players. A solid but unspectacular playoff contributor in Philadelphia, Iguodala has been able to save his best effort for the postseason with the deep Warriors.
Like Green, the 2015 NBA Finals MVP has also had another overachieving playoff run this year, highlighted by making five 3s as Golden State closed out Houston on the road without Kevin Durant and his clinching triple in Game 2 vs. Toronto.
7. Russell Westbrook
16.1 expected WARP
18.2 actual WARP
2.1 difference
GIven three consecutive first-round exits, I wouldn't blame you for wondering about Westbrook's playoff credentials.
You can divide his postseason career into two very different periods: with and without Kevin Durant. With Durant alongside, Westbrook posted 2.5 more WARP than expected. Since Durant's departure, Westbrook has been 0.4 WARP worse than expected.
8. Bradley Beal
2.4 expected WARP
4.2 actual WARP
1.8 difference
Before he developed into an 82-game All-Star, Beal played at that level as the Wizards upset Chicago in 2014 and Toronto in 2015 in the first round and gave scares to higher-seeded opponents Indiana and Atlanta. He was worth 2.2 more WARP than expected in those two playoff runs.
9. Jrue Holiday
2.0 expected WARP
3.8 actual WARP
1.8 difference
At age 22, Holiday broke out with 15.8 PPG, 5.2 APG and 4.7 RPG in the 2012 playoffs as an Iguodala-led Sixers came within a game of becoming the second No. 8 seed to reach the conference finals. (Philadelphia's first-round upset of top seed Chicago was aided by Derrick Rose's ACL tear during that series.)
Sadly, Holiday has made just two playoff appearances in the past seven seasons, although he dominated the Portland backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in last year's surprising New Orleans sweep in the opening round.
10. P.J. Tucker
0.2 expected WARP
1.9 actual WARP
1.7 difference
Because he spent so long in the lottery in Phoenix after returning to the NBA, Tucker didn't make his playoff debut until age 31 after a deadline trade to Toronto. That's too bad, because since joining the Rockets, Tucker has proved to be their version of Draymond in many regards, including playoff overperformance.
Others worth noting
How about some notable players who didn't crack the top 10?
Despite his teams reaching the conference finals only once, Chris Paul ranks 12th among active players. As I've noted before, his teams' issues in the playoffs often had more to do with what happened when Paul was on the bench.
Kyrie Irving (14th) was in the top 10 on the strength of his Cleveland postseason heroics until this year's stink bomb against Milwaukee. Irving was 0.8 WARP worse than expected in the 2019 playoffs, putting him in the league's bottom 10 this year.
This year's heroics since Kevin Durant's injury have quieted the unsupported talk that Stephen Curry (18th) is an 82-game player rather than a 16-game one. Once you account for the general decline most players experience in the playoffs, Curry has beaten expectations, if not as much so as teammates Green and Iguodala.
Incidentally, Durant (62nd) actually has the weaker overall postseason résumé, entirely due to his time in Oklahoma City. Since joining the Warriors, Durant has been worth 2.1 more WARP than expected in the playoffs.
Lastly, 2017-18 MVP James Harden is the biggest star who's fallen short of expectations during the playoffs, ranking 182nd among active players with 0.3 fewer WARP than expected.
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SHAMS:
There is intrigue to see how the Lakers handle these trade talks, after providing less-than-appealing offers to the Pelicans during the trade deadline in February.
Jeanie Buss was right???
There is intrigue to see how the Lakers handle these trade talks, after providing less-than-appealing offers to the Pelicans during the trade deadline in February.
Jeanie Buss was right???
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NT: man clippers got the best package. Shai and Gallo!!! We on his list too!!!
Shams: AD wants lakers or Knicks.
Same NT: we didn’t want him anyways.
Shams: AD wants lakers or Knicks.
Same NT: we didn’t want him anyways.
MVP
Supporter
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Magic all but admitted they offered everybody. Pels were just in their feelings, they're going to take a worse deal than they would have in February. Taking the emotion out of it Lakers always had the best package if the Celtics weren't going to play ball.
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Let Celtics fans tell it, Tatum is the next superstar. Good thing he's still only 29 somehow
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Clips about to max Patrick Beverly
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I don't think Davis ends up in LA or NY
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If KD leaves i dont think the Warriors make the finals next year...
And as Milwaukee and Toronto have proven the 2nd star player isnt entirely necessary if you have a great supporting cast.
I would be super reluctant to trade Siakam. Even if Kawhi stays. That being said Pascal does have the perfect name for NO
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what a joke lol
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Worse podcaster on the locked on network
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Woj on espn: Lakers have the most leverage and best assets to get a trade done 
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Not reliable. Basically like Ric Bucher posting something.
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**** WojWoj on espn: Lakers have the most leverage and best assets to get a trade done
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Total 180 from 4 months ago lmaoWoj on espn: Lakers have the most leverage and best assets to get a trade done
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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Team they can "push around" meanwhile ya'll are trying to buy logos & sending your FO to stalk a player all year WHO ISNT ON YOUR TEAM.
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Oh man you mean Danny "the Wzrd" Ainge made you a public agreement with the Pels that he would offer up a better package in the offseason & he lied??
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Danny should get a different role in the organization. 3 heart attacks are nothing to **** with
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Woj on espn: Lakers have the most leverage and best assets to get a trade done
So is Woj credible on reports about the Lakers or nah?
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Only when they are anti-Lakers
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