OFFICIAL Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers - Pink Huggies & Pedicures Edition

Gotta play smart and can't fumble away opportunities or drop easy interceptions.  
If we win and make the playoffs no one wants to see us come to their house.  Not saying we're a better team but with the explosive offense and good defense, NO ONE wants to play us.
 
pimp.gif
that video
 
[h3][/h3]
[h3]Perspective on Aaron Rodgers' big game [/h3]
December, 28, 2010
Dec 28

2:30

PM ET


By Kevin Seifert

We all know that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had an exceptional game last Sunday against the New York Giants: He completed 25 of 37 throws for a career-high 404 yards, tied his career high with four touchdown passes and no interceptions.


8439.jpg

Rodgers
Just how good was it? Our friends over at Football Outsiders have calculated it as the best game in the NFL this season and the 11th-best performance by a quarterback since they started current tracking in 1993.

To get a better understanding of what it means to rank No. 11 on that list, consider there are 256 games each season in the NFL and, thus, 512 starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 1993 season, then, there have been 9,184 starting quarterbacks. Ranking 11 on a list of 9,184 translates into better than 99 percentile.

(I'm sure you'll check my math. Football Outsiders calculates my chances of accurately figuring those numbers at 9.9 percent.)

Football Outsiders evaluates players using different versions of a statistic that measures how much better, or worse, they were than the contemporary leaguewide average. Based on that analysis, Rodgers' DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards over Average) was 294 against the Giants. Among other points, Football Outsiders' Bill Barnwell notes that quarterback Brett Favre never produced a DYAR better than 243 while with the Packers. (Coincidentally, that game came against the Vikings in 2007.)

So chew on that one for a while.



Our team walks on water.
Click to expand...
 
[h3][/h3]
[h3]Perspective on Aaron Rodgers' big game [/h3]
December, 28, 2010
Dec 28

2:30

PM ET


By Kevin Seifert

We all know that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had an exceptional game last Sunday against the New York Giants: He completed 25 of 37 throws for a career-high 404 yards, tied his career high with four touchdown passes and no interceptions.


8439.jpg

Rodgers
Just how good was it? Our friends over at Football Outsiders have calculated it as the best game in the NFL this season and the 11th-best performance by a quarterback since they started current tracking in 1993.

To get a better understanding of what it means to rank No. 11 on that list, consider there are 256 games each season in the NFL and, thus, 512 starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 1993 season, then, there have been 9,184 starting quarterbacks. Ranking 11 on a list of 9,184 translates into better than 99 percentile.

(I'm sure you'll check my math. Football Outsiders calculates my chances of accurately figuring those numbers at 9.9 percent.)

Football Outsiders evaluates players using different versions of a statistic that measures how much better, or worse, they were than the contemporary leaguewide average. Based on that analysis, Rodgers' DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards over Average) was 294 against the Giants. Among other points, Football Outsiders' Bill Barnwell notes that quarterback Brett Favre never produced a DYAR better than 243 while with the Packers. (Coincidentally, that game came against the Vikings in 2007.)

So chew on that one for a while.



Our team walks on water.
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by youngmoney

DYAR? lol
Click to expand...
laugh.gif
Football nerd stuff from Football Outsiders...



http://http://[h3]DYAR EXPLAINED[/h3]
After using DVOA for a few months, we came across a strange phenomenon: well-regarded players, particularly those known for their durability, had DVOA ratings that came out around average. The reason is that DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-average level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, an average level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed. In addition, a player who is involved in a high number of plays can draw the defense’s attention away from other parts of the offense, and, if that player is a running back, he can take time off the clock with repeated runs.

Let’s say you have a running back who carries the ball 300 times in a season. What would happen if you were to remove this player from his team’s offense? What would happen to those 300 plays? Those plays don’t disappear with the player, though some might be lost to the defense because of the associated loss of first downs. Rather those plays would have to be distributed among the remaining players in the offense, with the bulk of them being given to a replacement running back. This is where we arrive at the concept of replacement level, borrowed from our partners at Baseball Prospectus. When a player is removed from an offense, he is usually not replaced by a player of similar ability. Nearly every starting player in the NFL is a starter because he is better than the alternative. Those 300 plays will typically be given to a significantly worse player, someone who is the backup because he doesn’t have as much experience and/or talent. A player’s true value can then be measured by the level of performance he provides above that replacement level baseline, totaled over all of his run or pass attempts.

Of course, the real replacement player is different for each team in the NFL. Over the past two years, the second-string running back in Jacksonville (Maurice Jones-Drew) had a much higher DVOA than the first-string back (Fred Taylor). In 2007, Ryan Grant started the year as the fifth-string running back for the Giants and ended the year with a 12.4% DVOA for Green Bay. On other teams, the drop from the starter to the backup can be even greater than the general drop to replacement level. Imagine if Peyton Manning broke his leg, for example. The choice to start an inferior player or to employ a sub-replacement level backup, however, falls to the team, not the starter being evaluated. Thus we generalize replacement level for the league as a whole as the ultimate goal is to evaluate players independent of the quality of their teammates.

Our estimates of replacement level were re-done during the 2008 season and are computed differently for each position. For quarterbacks, we analyzed situations where two or more quarterbacks had played meaningful snaps for a team in the same season, then compared the overall DVOA of the original starters to the overall DVOA of the replacements. We did not include situations where the backup was actually a top prospect waiting his turn on the bench, since a first-round pick is by no means a "replacement-level" player.

At other positions, there is no easy way to separate players into "starters" and "replacements," since unlike at quarterback, being the starter doesn't make you the only guy who gets in the game. Instead, we used a simpler method, ranking players at each position in each season by attempts. The players who made up the final 10 percent of passes or runs were split out as "replacement players" and then compared to the players making up the other 90 percent of plays at that position. This took care of the fact that not every non-starter at running back or wide receiver is a freely available talent. (Think of Jerious Norwood or Devery Henderson, for example.)

As noted earlier, the challenge of any new stat is to present it on a scale that’s meaningful to those attempting to use it. Saying that DeAngelo Williams' runs were worth 84.3 success value points over replacement in 2008 has very little value without a context to tell us if 84.3 is good total or a bad one. Therefore, we translate these success values into a number called "Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR. For example, DeAngelo Williams led all running backs in 2008 with 385 rushing DYAR.
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by youngmoney

DYAR? lol
Click to expand...
laugh.gif
Football nerd stuff from Football Outsiders...



http://http://[h3]DYAR EXPLAINED[/h3]
After using DVOA for a few months, we came across a strange phenomenon: well-regarded players, particularly those known for their durability, had DVOA ratings that came out around average. The reason is that DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-average level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, an average level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed. In addition, a player who is involved in a high number of plays can draw the defense’s attention away from other parts of the offense, and, if that player is a running back, he can take time off the clock with repeated runs.

Let’s say you have a running back who carries the ball 300 times in a season. What would happen if you were to remove this player from his team’s offense? What would happen to those 300 plays? Those plays don’t disappear with the player, though some might be lost to the defense because of the associated loss of first downs. Rather those plays would have to be distributed among the remaining players in the offense, with the bulk of them being given to a replacement running back. This is where we arrive at the concept of replacement level, borrowed from our partners at Baseball Prospectus. When a player is removed from an offense, he is usually not replaced by a player of similar ability. Nearly every starting player in the NFL is a starter because he is better than the alternative. Those 300 plays will typically be given to a significantly worse player, someone who is the backup because he doesn’t have as much experience and/or talent. A player’s true value can then be measured by the level of performance he provides above that replacement level baseline, totaled over all of his run or pass attempts.

Of course, the real replacement player is different for each team in the NFL. Over the past two years, the second-string running back in Jacksonville (Maurice Jones-Drew) had a much higher DVOA than the first-string back (Fred Taylor). In 2007, Ryan Grant started the year as the fifth-string running back for the Giants and ended the year with a 12.4% DVOA for Green Bay. On other teams, the drop from the starter to the backup can be even greater than the general drop to replacement level. Imagine if Peyton Manning broke his leg, for example. The choice to start an inferior player or to employ a sub-replacement level backup, however, falls to the team, not the starter being evaluated. Thus we generalize replacement level for the league as a whole as the ultimate goal is to evaluate players independent of the quality of their teammates.

Our estimates of replacement level were re-done during the 2008 season and are computed differently for each position. For quarterbacks, we analyzed situations where two or more quarterbacks had played meaningful snaps for a team in the same season, then compared the overall DVOA of the original starters to the overall DVOA of the replacements. We did not include situations where the backup was actually a top prospect waiting his turn on the bench, since a first-round pick is by no means a "replacement-level" player.

At other positions, there is no easy way to separate players into "starters" and "replacements," since unlike at quarterback, being the starter doesn't make you the only guy who gets in the game. Instead, we used a simpler method, ranking players at each position in each season by attempts. The players who made up the final 10 percent of passes or runs were split out as "replacement players" and then compared to the players making up the other 90 percent of plays at that position. This took care of the fact that not every non-starter at running back or wide receiver is a freely available talent. (Think of Jerious Norwood or Devery Henderson, for example.)

As noted earlier, the challenge of any new stat is to present it on a scale that’s meaningful to those attempting to use it. Saying that DeAngelo Williams' runs were worth 84.3 success value points over replacement in 2008 has very little value without a context to tell us if 84.3 is good total or a bad one. Therefore, we translate these success values into a number called "Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR. For example, DeAngelo Williams led all running backs in 2008 with 385 rushing DYAR.
Click to expand...
 
laugh.gif
 Shuttt
Well i hope its still not Jay Cutler. Or ill have to update my avy as Deangelo Hall for this week. Maybe the next two..
 
laugh.gif
 Shuttt
Well i hope its still not Jay Cutler. Or ill have to update my avy as Deangelo Hall for this week. Maybe the next two..
 
Don't really feel like rummaging through to find other threads so here.

Pro Bowl Packers via Adam Schefter

Packers to Pro Bowl: OT Chad Clifton, S Nick Collins, WR Greg Jennings, linebacker Clay Matthews and cornerback Charles Woodson
 
Don't really feel like rummaging through to find other threads so here.

Pro Bowl Packers via Adam Schefter

Packers to Pro Bowl: OT Chad Clifton, S Nick Collins, WR Greg Jennings, linebacker Clay Matthews and cornerback Charles Woodson
 
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