KLaw said that he sees Uggla lunking around LF before the contract is up
Good read for fantasy players. We should start one up
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Good read for fantasy players. We should start one up
Every season I get asked why I rank St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols at the very top of my rankings when I know he plays the deepest position in fantasy baseball. It's a fair question. My answer is simple, really, and it focuses on his consistency. Pujols is at or near the top of the league leaders in runs, RBIs, homers and batting average every season, and he even steals bases. The position he plays is largely irrelevant to me when he's that reliable and safe.
Of course, after Pujols, I pay a lot more attention to position scarcity, which is why I can justify placing more middle infielders than first basemen in my top 10. Yep, you will not find Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez or Mark Teixeira in my top 10, because I will not draft them that early. They're awesome players, all likely to outperform Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki on the Player Rater, but Tulo plays a considerably weaker fantasy position.
I see only two positions with reasonable depth for fantasy baseball this season, and they are starting pitching and first base. In past seasons, we've been blessed with depth at third base or the outfield, and in some years there are even 20-plus semireliable closers, but not this season. Nothing else is deep. Offense was down in 2010, and I suspect that will not deviate much this season. Welcome to fantasy baseball, the new era, where it's still possible that a Jose Bautista type will go nuts and whack 50 home runs, but he's not likely to have much company.
Thus, the age-old argument that one can pass on Teixeira because Billy Butler is there 10 rounds later (in mixed leagues) and Adam LaRoche is waiting 20 rounds later is a valid one. Pass on Tulowitzki in Round 1 and, well, there's always Erick Aybar?
Without further ado, here is my current top 10 for the 2011 season, with accompanying thoughts:
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Jerry Lai/US PresswireAlbert Pujols: As reliable as it gets.
1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: He's just special. In past seasons, I tried to make the case for others, such as an in-his-prime Alex Rodriguez or the guy I've ranked second here, but I just can't do it anymore. Don't overthink this pick. Just do it.
2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins:: He's pretty special as well, but maybe not as much as previously thought. He finished 12th on the Player Rater last season, which shouldn't be viewed as disappointing; 21 home runs and 32 stolen bases from a middle infielder are awesome totals. But consider a few trends. Ramirez's games played have dropped each year since 2006. Only once has he knocked in more than 81 runs. Stealing 32 bases isn't bad, but he stole 51 bases in each of his first two seasons. And his OPS dropped 101 points from 2009. He's still my No. 2 player, but if the next guy stole double-digit bases, I would switch them.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: He's really not much different from Pujols; Pujols tied for second on the Player Rater, Cabrera was fifth. Votto was fourth, but I won't overrate one season. Cabrera has a considerable track record and is in his power prime. And if you wanted to take him second overall, I wouldn't snicker.
4. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: It's time we view him the way we do Ramirez. We don't get stolen bases here, but Cano has 200 hits in each of the past two seasons, and I'm not assuming his 2010 figures of 29 home runs and 109 RBIs are as good as it gets. He makes a major impact in batting average because he is durable and doesn't walk much. Put simply, he is a far wiser investment than Chase Utley. Don't be shy about reaching a bit to get Cano, either. There are seven, perhaps eight, second basemen worthy of top-100 status -- it's not a deep position -- and most of them bring injury concerns. Cano does not.
5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: His power numbers dipped a bit in 2010, but he augmented them with 15 stolen bases. Longoria is 25 years old and keeps raising his batting average and walk rate, and within a year or two we'll see really big power numbers.
6. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: I've come around a bit on how I value Braun. A season ago, he was viewed as possibly the No. 3 overall player, ultimately going fourth in ESPN.com average live drafts, and now I see many disregarding him as a top-10 option. Braun hit .304 with 25 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Yes, the power dropped a bit for him as well, but because he's still just 27 years old, I have no worries that it's a trend. He has become underrated, actually. What differentiates him from other top power outfielders, other than the steals, is the consistency. There's nothing to fear.
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Rob Hammer/US PresswireTroy Tulowitzki hit 15 homers during the month of September (in 2010).
7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: The argument against Tulowitzki is that for five months of the 2010 season, he was rather ordinary. Then in September he seemed to homer every day. The optimist in me says that a 15-homer, 40-RBI month also can be viewed as a precursor to future 35-110 seasons, and I don't buy the theory that a completed career contract portends major drop-off in statistical production or motivation. Tulowitzki is also capable of stealing 20-plus bases and hitting better than .300. Based on durability concerns, he's only seventh for me, but I considered him at five.
8. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: I don't see the reasons for hatred here. In 2010, Wright bounced back in home runs and RBIs, as I expected when I ranked him in my top 10 a year ago. He stole 19 bases. The strikeouts, especially against right-handed pitching, are cause for some concern, but maybe Wright settles in around .280 rather than .300 long-term. Regardless, the stolen bases from third base make him a clear top-10 option to me, and we can't regard third base as deep as it was a year ago.
9. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox: I've wavered a bit on Crawford since he signed with the Red Sox, initially calling him the No. 5 player, but he's still a safe first-round pick. Maybe he'll never steal 60 bases again, and I don't expect a sudden surge in power, but I don't see much downside, either. A 19-homer, 47-steal season tied him with Pujols for the No. 2 spot on our Player Rater. Every year he's top-five, although he's never a top-five pick. I wouldn't wait too long to snag him.
10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: And finally we get to the actual defending Player Rater champ. Look, I have some reservations, I admit. If you wish to rank him third or fourth overall, I can't really argue. The numbers dictate that letting him fall to 10th is a bit odd. I guess I just want to see it again, that's all. Gonzalez is a legitimate power/speed guy, and although I wouldn't expect the stolen bases to rise, they don't need to if he challenges for batting titles. That's my issue, other than that he has played just one full season. Gonzalez had a batting average on balls in play of .384, which is normally impossible to sustain. If he challenges for 30-30 and hits only .300, that makes more sense. He does get to play half his games at Coors Field, after all. It might affect his MVP consideration, but fantasy owners like it. Ultimately, note that even the outfield spot is not as deep as you think, considering most leagues go five-deep. Hopefully Gonzalez isn't 2011's Matt Kemp.
Just missed: I have nothing against Votto or Adrian Gonzalez in the top 10, but I can't do it knowing Kendry Morales, Justin Morneau and Adam Dunn likely will be available in most leagues after the top 50 or in Round 6. They are, however, safe picks. As for Roy Halladay missing from my list, he's probably No. 12, between the first basemen. Starting pitching is deep, and often you can simply find the bargains in late April or May. Really, I think Round 2 of 2011 drafts will be nearly as interesting as Round 1. Maybe I need a future blog about why Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard and Josh Hamilton don't even make my second round!
Baseball is back! Ain't it grand?
