[/h1][h1]Previewing The Market For Prince Fielderhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html[/h1]
By Mike Axisa [January 13 at 10:44pm CST]
Earlier today we heard from Scott Boras, who is still trying to find a job for three of his highest profile clients this offseason. His biggest client next offseason, both literally and figuratively, will be Prince Fielder of the Brewers. The first baseman is due to earn upwards of $15MM in 2011, his final trip through the arbitration process, and he'll hit the open market after the season at just 27 years old.
Fielder's credentials are undeniable. He's hit .281/.395/.549 with 162 total home runs over the last four seasons, an average of just over 40 per season. Only Ryan Howardhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html has gone deep more times since 2007, and only a handful of players boast better on-base percentages. Fielder's defense is generally below average and there are legitimate long-term concerns about his size and ability to play the field. His father Cecil Fielder had a similar build and had gone from being one of the game's best sluggers to merely above average by age 30.
Boras will have his work cut out for him, because three of baseball's biggest spenders (Yankees, Tigers, Phillies) already have first basemen locked up to nine-figure contracts. The Cardinals and Red Sox figure to join that group once extensions for Albert Pujolshttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html and Adrian Gonzalezhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html are in place, respectively. Other clubs like the Reds, White Sox, Twins, and Nationals don't have a desperate need for a first baseman. Here are some of the clubs that could have interest in Fielder next offseason...
We shouldn't rule the Brewers out either, no matter how unlikely it seems. They made a representative offer to CC Sabathia after the 2008 season, so we know they have that kind of money available. Of course that was before they added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and before signing both Corey Hart and Yovani Gallardo long-term. The market for Fielder still has another 11 months to develop, and plenty will change between now and then. At this moment though, there's no clear-cut suitor.
- Angels - Shut out of all the top free agents this winter, the Halos could be an aggressive player for Prince. They already have Kendry Moraleshttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html at first however, meaning that they'd be locking one of the two into the DH spot for the foreseeable future. Their relationship with Boras isn't great either.
- Blue Jays - If Edwin Encarnacionhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html or Adam Lindhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html can't handle first in 2010, Toronto could try to make a big play for Fielder. It would go against everything Alex Anthopoulos has done to date though. They might also be preoccupied with trying to re-signing Jose Bautistahttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html by then as well.
- Cubs - The Cubbies added Carlos Penahttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html on a one-year deal, so the position will be open next winter. Kosuke Fukudomehttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html's $14.5MM salary will be off the books as well, so the money seems to be there. We know they've been looking for lefty power for quite some time.
- Dodgers - Ned Colletti is somewhat limited by the team's ownership situation right now, but things could change in the next 12 months. Perhaps a new owner would like to make a big splash.
- Giants - Aubrey Huffhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html just re-signed for two years but he can play other positions if needed, though if he does, it might be in deference of top prospect Brandon Belthttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html. San Francisco will have to start thinking about a long-term extension for Tim Lincecumhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html soon enough, and that is likely to eclipse $100MM.
- Mets - Sandy Alderson has limited his free agent spending this winter, but he'll have Carlos Beltranhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html ($20.07MM), Oliver Perezhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html ($12MM), and Luis Castillohttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html ($6.25MM) coming off the payroll after next season. Some of that money might go to an extension for Jose Reyeshttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html, but signing Fielder could free them up to trade Ike Davishttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html for help elsewhere.
- Orioles - The O's made a run at Mark Teixeirahttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html two winters ago, so we know they have the ability to support a $20MM a year player. Derrek Leehttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html is on a one-year deal, and Andy MacPhail could choose to add that big power bat just as his young players start to mature.
- Rangers - Texas has still has some Cliff Leehttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html money to spend, but this would still be a long shot. They have several players due sizable arbitration raises in the next two years (most notably Josh Hamiltonhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html and Nelson Cruzhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html), and would probably need to unload Michael Younghttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html as well.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Should be really interesting next offseason to see what kind of deal Fielder gets with all the large markets locked up at 1B
[/h1][h1]Previewing The Market For Prince Fielderhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html[/h1]
By Mike Axisa [January 13 at 10:44pm CST]
Fielder's credentials are undeniable. He's hit .281/.395/.549 with 162 total home runs over the last four seasons, an average of just over 40 per season. Only Ryan Howardhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html has gone deep more times since 2007, and only a handful of players boast better on-base percentages. Fielder's defense is generally below average and there are legitimate long-term concerns about his size and ability to play the field. His father Cecil Fielder had a similar build and had gone from being one of the game's best sluggers to merely above average by age 30.
Boras will have his work cut out for him, because three of baseball's biggest spenders (Yankees, Tigers, Phillies) already have first basemen locked up to nine-figure contracts. The Cardinals and Red Sox figure to join that group once extensions for Albert Pujolshttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html and Adrian Gonzalezhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html are in place, respectively. Other clubs like the Reds, White Sox, Twins, and Nationals don't have a desperate need for a first baseman. Here are some of the clubs that could have interest in Fielder next offseason...
We shouldn't rule the Brewers out either, no matter how unlikely it seems. They made a representative offer to CC Sabathia after the 2008 season, so we know they have that kind of money available. Of course that was before they added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and before signing both Corey Hart and Yovani Gallardo long-term. The market for Fielder still has another 11 months to develop, and plenty will change between now and then. At this moment though, there's no clear-cut suitor.
- Angels - Shut out of all the top free agents this winter, the Halos could be an aggressive player for Prince. They already have Kendry Moraleshttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html at first however, meaning that they'd be locking one of the two into the DH spot for the foreseeable future. Their relationship with Boras isn't great either.
- Blue Jays - If Edwin Encarnacionhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html or Adam Lindhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html can't handle first in 2010, Toronto could try to make a big play for Fielder. It would go against everything Alex Anthopoulos has done to date though. They might also be preoccupied with trying to re-signing Jose Bautistahttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html by then as well.
- Cubs - The Cubbies added Carlos Penahttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html on a one-year deal, so the position will be open next winter. Kosuke Fukudomehttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html's $14.5MM salary will be off the books as well, so the money seems to be there. We know they've been looking for lefty power for quite some time.
- Dodgers - Ned Colletti is somewhat limited by the team's ownership situation right now, but things could change in the next 12 months. Perhaps a new owner would like to make a big splash.
- Giants - Aubrey Huffhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html just re-signed for two years but he can play other positions if needed, though if he does, it might be in deference of top prospect Brandon Belthttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html. San Francisco will have to start thinking about a long-term extension for Tim Lincecumhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html soon enough, and that is likely to eclipse $100MM.
- Mets - Sandy Alderson has limited his free agent spending this winter, but he'll have Carlos Beltranhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html ($20.07MM), Oliver Perezhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html ($12MM), and Luis Castillohttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html ($6.25MM) coming off the payroll after next season. Some of that money might go to an extension for Jose Reyeshttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html, but signing Fielder could free them up to trade Ike Davishttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html for help elsewhere.
- Orioles - The O's made a run at Mark Teixeirahttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html two winters ago, so we know they have the ability to support a $20MM a year player. Derrek Leehttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html is on a one-year deal, and Andy MacPhail could choose to add that big power bat just as his young players start to mature.
- Rangers - Texas has still has some Cliff Leehttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html money to spend, but this would still be a long shot. They have several players due sizable arbitration raises in the next two years (most notably Josh Hamiltonhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html and Nelson Cruzhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html), and would probably need to unload Michael Younghttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/previewing-the-market-for-prince-fielder.html as well.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Should be really interesting next offseason to see what kind of deal Fielder gets with all the large markets locked up at 1B
Projecting Matt Garza at Wrigley Field
Posted By Albert Lyu On January 14, 2011 @ 3:00 pm In Daily Graphings | No Comments
The addition of Matt Garza to the Cubs rotation looks like an upgrade in a vacuum. On the surface, Garza appears to be a decent pitcher, holding a sub-4.00 ERA with a healthy 200+ innings each of the past two seasons. A young pitcher heading into his prime years, Garza does sport a varied pitch repertoire while relying mostly on his mid-90s four-seam fastball. Yet, though Garza may be a staple in the Cubs rotation and more reliable than the enigmatic Carlos Silva, he is anything but a potential ace in a rotation absent of aces.
As Dave Cameron explained, Garza’s approach in relying heavily on four-seam fastballs comes at the risk of surrendering home runs, and his relatively low home-run to fly-ball ratio for a fly-ball pitcher is one factor for his sub-4.00 ERA seasons. What I am concerned about is what I feel some optimistic Cubs fans (yes, they exist) are ignoring: Garza’s fly-ball tendencies are ill-suited for Wrigley Field, and his Tropicana-depressed HR/FB ratio will be exposed in 2011.
Take a look at Garza’s batted-ball home/away splits the past three seasons:
Garza 2009 Home: 0.87 HR/9, 40.8% GB%, 41.8% FB%, 8.5% HR/FB
Garza 2009 Away: 1.42 HR/9, 38.4% GB%, 43.3% FB%, 12.3% HR/FB
Garza 2010 Home: 1.04 HR/9, 30.4% GB%, 47.3% FB%, 8.5% HR/FB
Garza 2010 Away: 1.40 HR/9, 39.9% GB%, 42.8% FB%, 11.3% HR/FB
I see two concerning trends here. First, Garza is becoming more and more of a fly-ball pitcher, having increased his FB% and decreased his GB% every season since 2007 with the Twins. This may have been an intentional adjustment by the Rays’ pitching staff to exploit Tropicana’s deep center and minimize skidding ground balls over FieldTurf (and if so, it was a smart move). Such a strategy will not work at Wrigley Field.
Second, though Garza has become less of a fly-ball pitcher on the road, he has a much higher home-run rate as well as a hazardous HR/FB ratio. If road pitching numbers are more indicative than that of outings at Tropicana Field, Cubs fans in the bleachers should expect long balls from the pitcher who allowed 28 home runs in 2010, third among AL starters.
If that doesn’t convince you, take a look at the following diagram taking Garza’s batted balls at Tropicana Field in 2010 mapped on to Wrigley Field:
Feel free to click on the image to enlarge it while comparing to the same plot over Tropicana Field. The image above shows that a couple of fly outs and doubles toward center field would have potentially gone out of the park. Important note: these plots are taken from Gameday hit-location data, which track where the ball was fielded and not where the ball initially landed. But even if we eliminate the singles and doubles, several fly outs that occurred in straight away center (engulfed by Tropicana’s deep territory) would have hit Wrigley’s warning track. And every baseball fan who has been to Wrigley Field knows that it exhibits unusual wind patterns, especially when the wind blows out and toward Lake Michigan. You can connect the rest of the dots from there.
What this spells out is that Garza must diminish his fly-ball tendencies that worked at Tropicana Field in order to prevent a spike in home runs allowed at Wrigley. Garza has the secondary pitches to complement his four-seam fastball, but may have to develop a strong out-pitch in order to get more batters to whiff. The power hitters of the NL Central division would be well-advised to expect high heat and swing away if the Cubs don’t adjust Garza’s approach. The ubiquitous (FanGraphs author!) Jonah Keri also adds that Garza’s extreme fly-ball trends benefited from the Rays’ outfield defense, which the Cubs’ outfield falls very short of.
Garza is the odd one out in a starting rotation filled with sinkerballers and ground-ball pitchers such as Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. And just as the Cubs need to field a better infield defense behind the rest of the rotation, Garza has to produce alternative batted-ball tendencies.
As a final nail-in-the-coffin argument, take a look at the tendencies of two similar starting pitchers:
Garza ’10: 6.60 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 44.7% FB%, 10.0% HR/FB, 4.51 xFIP
Pitcher A: 5.22 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9, 41.0% FB%, 13.3% HR/FB, 4.70 xFIP
Pitcher B: 6.23 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 1.42 HR/9, 41.2% FB%, 11.6% HR/FB, 4.66 xFIP
Relatively similar numbers for the most part, no? Except that homer-happy Pitchers A and B are Rodrigo Lopez and Kevin Millwood, members of the 5.00 ERA club still toiling in the free agent market looking for work. Don’t be fooled by Garza’s deceptive ERA numbers. If Garza’s batted-ball splits remain the same during the 2011 season, expect to see his overall home-run rate increase closer to his away splits, which are dangerously close to Lopez and Millwood territory.
(h/t to this awesome MLB Gameday BIP Location tool for mapping batted balls on top of any ballpark)
Projecting Matt Garza at Wrigley Field
Posted By Albert Lyu On January 14, 2011 @ 3:00 pm In Daily Graphings | No Comments
The addition of Matt Garza to the Cubs rotation looks like an upgrade in a vacuum. On the surface, Garza appears to be a decent pitcher, holding a sub-4.00 ERA with a healthy 200+ innings each of the past two seasons. A young pitcher heading into his prime years, Garza does sport a varied pitch repertoire while relying mostly on his mid-90s four-seam fastball. Yet, though Garza may be a staple in the Cubs rotation and more reliable than the enigmatic Carlos Silva, he is anything but a potential ace in a rotation absent of aces.
As Dave Cameron explained, Garza’s approach in relying heavily on four-seam fastballs comes at the risk of surrendering home runs, and his relatively low home-run to fly-ball ratio for a fly-ball pitcher is one factor for his sub-4.00 ERA seasons. What I am concerned about is what I feel some optimistic Cubs fans (yes, they exist) are ignoring: Garza’s fly-ball tendencies are ill-suited for Wrigley Field, and his Tropicana-depressed HR/FB ratio will be exposed in 2011.
Take a look at Garza’s batted-ball home/away splits the past three seasons:
Garza 2009 Home: 0.87 HR/9, 40.8% GB%, 41.8% FB%, 8.5% HR/FB
Garza 2009 Away: 1.42 HR/9, 38.4% GB%, 43.3% FB%, 12.3% HR/FB
Garza 2010 Home: 1.04 HR/9, 30.4% GB%, 47.3% FB%, 8.5% HR/FB
Garza 2010 Away: 1.40 HR/9, 39.9% GB%, 42.8% FB%, 11.3% HR/FB
I see two concerning trends here. First, Garza is becoming more and more of a fly-ball pitcher, having increased his FB% and decreased his GB% every season since 2007 with the Twins. This may have been an intentional adjustment by the Rays’ pitching staff to exploit Tropicana’s deep center and minimize skidding ground balls over FieldTurf (and if so, it was a smart move). Such a strategy will not work at Wrigley Field.
Second, though Garza has become less of a fly-ball pitcher on the road, he has a much higher home-run rate as well as a hazardous HR/FB ratio. If road pitching numbers are more indicative than that of outings at Tropicana Field, Cubs fans in the bleachers should expect long balls from the pitcher who allowed 28 home runs in 2010, third among AL starters.
If that doesn’t convince you, take a look at the following diagram taking Garza’s batted balls at Tropicana Field in 2010 mapped on to Wrigley Field:
Feel free to click on the image to enlarge it while comparing to the same plot over Tropicana Field. The image above shows that a couple of fly outs and doubles toward center field would have potentially gone out of the park. Important note: these plots are taken from Gameday hit-location data, which track where the ball was fielded and not where the ball initially landed. But even if we eliminate the singles and doubles, several fly outs that occurred in straight away center (engulfed by Tropicana’s deep territory) would have hit Wrigley’s warning track. And every baseball fan who has been to Wrigley Field knows that it exhibits unusual wind patterns, especially when the wind blows out and toward Lake Michigan. You can connect the rest of the dots from there.
What this spells out is that Garza must diminish his fly-ball tendencies that worked at Tropicana Field in order to prevent a spike in home runs allowed at Wrigley. Garza has the secondary pitches to complement his four-seam fastball, but may have to develop a strong out-pitch in order to get more batters to whiff. The power hitters of the NL Central division would be well-advised to expect high heat and swing away if the Cubs don’t adjust Garza’s approach. The ubiquitous (FanGraphs author!) Jonah Keri also adds that Garza’s extreme fly-ball trends benefited from the Rays’ outfield defense, which the Cubs’ outfield falls very short of.
Garza is the odd one out in a starting rotation filled with sinkerballers and ground-ball pitchers such as Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. And just as the Cubs need to field a better infield defense behind the rest of the rotation, Garza has to produce alternative batted-ball tendencies.
As a final nail-in-the-coffin argument, take a look at the tendencies of two similar starting pitchers:
Garza ’10: 6.60 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 44.7% FB%, 10.0% HR/FB, 4.51 xFIP
Pitcher A: 5.22 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9, 41.0% FB%, 13.3% HR/FB, 4.70 xFIP
Pitcher B: 6.23 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 1.42 HR/9, 41.2% FB%, 11.6% HR/FB, 4.66 xFIP
Relatively similar numbers for the most part, no? Except that homer-happy Pitchers A and B are Rodrigo Lopez and Kevin Millwood, members of the 5.00 ERA club still toiling in the free agent market looking for work. Don’t be fooled by Garza’s deceptive ERA numbers. If Garza’s batted-ball splits remain the same during the 2011 season, expect to see his overall home-run rate increase closer to his away splits, which are dangerously close to Lopez and Millwood territory.
(h/t to this awesome MLB Gameday BIP Location tool for mapping batted balls on top of any ballpark)
