Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.

[jpzx]

[h1]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/twins-agree-to-terms-with-carl-pavano.html[/h1]

[h1]Twins Agree To Terms With Carl Pavano[/h1]
By Mark Polishuk [January 19, 2011 at 6:09pm CST]

The Twins have agreed to terms with right-hander Carl Pavanoon a two-year, $16.5MM contract, according to a team press release. Pavano will earn $8MM next season and $8.5MM in 2012, plus an extra$500K should he reach certain incentive clauses.  A deal between theclub and the veteran starter has seemed imminent for the last twoweeks, and the two sides were said to be "very close" to a contract just yesterday.  Pavano is represented by Tom O'Connell.

Pavano, 35, has pitched well for the Twins since joining the team inAugust 2009.  Pavano has posted a 3.97 ERA and a 3.32 K/BB ratio in 44starts as a Twin, and his seven complete games last season tied Cliff Lee for most in the American League.

Pavano's deal resembles the contract Joel Pineiro signed almost exactly a year ago, a comparison MLBTR's Tim Dierkes drew in late December.  In November, three of five MLBTR writers correctly predicted Pavano would remain with the Twins.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday was the first to report the deal had been finalized, while Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and USA Today's Bob Nightengale added contract details.

 

[wildkycat]

Cueto gets 4 years/$28 mil.

so that's Phillips, Arroyo, Votto, Bruce, Chapman, and now Cueto all under contract all for at least 3 years... i'm good with that.

 

[wildkycat]

Cueto gets 4 years/$28 mil.

so that's Phillips, Arroyo, Votto, Bruce, Chapman, and now Cueto all under contract all for at least 3 years... i'm good with that.

 

[bkmac]

Rays signed Manny and Damon 

.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/rays-agree-to-terms-with-johnny-damon-manny-ramirez.html

 

[bkmac]

Rays signed Manny and Damon 

.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/rays-agree-to-terms-with-johnny-damon-manny-ramirez.html

 

[kevin cleveland]

!+%* the Yankees. I knew my guy wouldn't do that to me.

 

[kevin cleveland]

!+%* the Yankees. I knew my guy wouldn't do that to me.

 

[venom lyrix]

Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

!+%* the Yankees. I knew my guy wouldn't do that to me.

unnecessary hate

 

[venom lyrix]

Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

!+%* the Yankees. I knew my guy wouldn't do that to me.

unnecessary hate

 

[wearinthefourfive]

Vernon Wells to the Angels. *shrug*

 

[wearinthefourfive]

Vernon Wells to the Angels. *shrug*

 

[kevin cleveland]

venom lyrix wrote:
Unnecessary poster.

 

[kevin cleveland]

venom lyrix wrote:
Unnecessary poster.

 

[shuges]

Manny AND Johnny?

Wow. Both were linked to the Yanks at some point this past winter.

Cliff Lee spurned them.

End of the evil empire perhaps?

 

[shuges]

Manny AND Johnny?

Wow. Both were linked to the Yanks at some point this past winter.

Cliff Lee spurned them.

End of the evil empire perhaps?

 

[dacomeup]

Originally Posted by wildKYcat

Cueto gets 4 years/$28 mil.

so that's Phillips, Arroyo, Votto, Bruce, Chapman, and now Cueto all under contract all for at least 3 years... i'm good with that.

Volquez next. Keeping the core together man.

 

[dacomeup]

Originally Posted by wildKYcat

Cueto gets 4 years/$28 mil.

so that's Phillips, Arroyo, Votto, Bruce, Chapman, and now Cueto all under contract all for at least 3 years... i'm good with that.

Volquez next. Keeping the core together man.

 

[proshares]

Shuges, the last time a prominent member predicted the end of the Evil Empire we won the WS

Andruw Jones is a good fit, he can still play the field and hit lefties well. I don't mind Damon and Manny going to Tampa.

Why did the Angels trade for the rest of that contract? Dopes.

 

[proshares]

Shuges, the last time a prominent member predicted the end of the Evil Empire we won the WS

Andruw Jones is a good fit, he can still play the field and hit lefties well. I don't mind Damon and Manny going to Tampa.

Why did the Angels trade for the rest of that contract? Dopes.

 

[shuges]

Unlike a lot of my Met brethren, I don't hate the Yanks. My dad was a Yankee fan and my girl is a Yank fan. So I just don't have that hate for them. If they win the WS, cool. I'll always root for the Mets to win it before them though.

Andruw is WASHED UP. He's a nice reclamation project ala Kerry Wood. But Jones has been DONE for at least 3 seasons now. Worst signing of the off-season imo. Yanks came off as desperate with that one.

 

[shuges]

Unlike a lot of my Met brethren, I don't hate the Yanks. My dad was a Yankee fan and my girl is a Yank fan. So I just don't have that hate for them. If they win the WS, cool. I'll always root for the Mets to win it before them though.

Andruw is WASHED UP. He's a nice reclamation project ala Kerry Wood. But Jones has been DONE for at least 3 seasons now. Worst signing of the off-season imo. Yanks came off as desperate with that one.

 

[proshares]

Nah man, definitely not the worst of the off-season

they needed a 4th OF'er and they got a good bargain with Jones. Pay for Manny and risk the clubhouse backlash or sign Damon who wants to start everyday when your OF is pretty much set with 3 better OF'ers than Damon? Jones still hit OK against lefties (which would be his primary use) with a decent OPS.

I would put Benoit, Soriano and a good amount of other reliever contracts as the worst.

The first memory most fans have of Andruw Jones is witnessing the then-teenager terrorize the New York Yankees in Game One of the 1996 World Series. While Jones’ Braves ultimately came up short in that Fall Classic, the Curacao native announced his presence as a future star by belting two home runs (replacing Mickey Mantle as the youngest ever to go deep in the World Series) and striding swiftly to fly balls that mere mortals would have to dive for, or miss altogether.

Now, Jones’ career has come full circle. He has reportedly signed a one-year, $2 million deal to serve as the Yankees’ fourth outfielder, with an additional $1.2 million in performance incentives possible. Thirty-four in April, Jones has the secondary skills to start for some teams, and he may now be the best reserve fly catcher in the game.

Just a few years ago, Jones’ career looked cooked. He seemingly went on the Rich Garces Fitness Plan and suffered a right knee injury with the Dodgers in 2008, posting a .234 wOBA and performing nearly a full win worse than your garden variety waiver claim or minor league free agent. But since he left the West Cost, Jones has rebounded with wOBAs of .338 in 331 plate appearances with the Rangers in 2009 and .364 this past year in 328 trips to the plate with the White Sox.

While Rangers Ballpark and U.S. Cellular Field both boost right-handed power, Jones’ park and league-adjusted wOBA was still 14 percent above average (114 wRC+) from ’09 to ’10. As usual, his batting average on balls in play was far lower than most (.230 from ’09 to ’10, .274 career), but he walked in close to 14 percent of his plate appearances and posted an Isolated Power of exactly .250.

As a power hitter who performs best when pulling the ball — he has a .451 wOBA when ripping pitches to the left side over the past two years, compared to a .419 average for righty batters — Jones should find Yankee Stadium to his liking. The park is a neutral venue overall due to fewer doubles and triples being hit, but it boosts right-handed homers by 10 percent.

Jones is expected to shuttle around the outfield in the Bronx, occasionally filling in for lefties Brett Gardner (.316 wOBA in 262 career PA versus LHP) and Curtis Granderson (.275 career wOBA in 859 PA against southpaws) and perhaps getting some DH starts as well. It’s a role that he’ll fill well, and credit should go to the Yankees for adding a quality player to the roster at a minimal cost. But it’s arguably a role for which Jones is overqualified.

Gauging Jones’ defensive chops is admittedly difficult at this point, as he hasn’t played the outfield on more than a part-time basis since 2007. Maybe teams think he’s no longer a viable option as a regular outfielder. But if you think he can still cut it out there and he can put up a .340-.350 wOBA, Jones projects as a starting-caliber player. At this late juncture of free agency, however, jobs are scarce. In any event, kudos to the Yankees for bolstering their bench for an AL East Division fight that figures to be fierce yet again.

 

[proshares]

Nah man, definitely not the worst of the off-season

they needed a 4th OF'er and they got a good bargain with Jones. Pay for Manny and risk the clubhouse backlash or sign Damon who wants to start everyday when your OF is pretty much set with 3 better OF'ers than Damon? Jones still hit OK against lefties (which would be his primary use) with a decent OPS.

I would put Benoit, Soriano and a good amount of other reliever contracts as the worst.

The first memory most fans have of Andruw Jones is witnessing the then-teenager terrorize the New York Yankees in Game One of the 1996 World Series. While Jones’ Braves ultimately came up short in that Fall Classic, the Curacao native announced his presence as a future star by belting two home runs (replacing Mickey Mantle as the youngest ever to go deep in the World Series) and striding swiftly to fly balls that mere mortals would have to dive for, or miss altogether.

Now, Jones’ career has come full circle. He has reportedly signed a one-year, $2 million deal to serve as the Yankees’ fourth outfielder, with an additional $1.2 million in performance incentives possible. Thirty-four in April, Jones has the secondary skills to start for some teams, and he may now be the best reserve fly catcher in the game.

Just a few years ago, Jones’ career looked cooked. He seemingly went on the Rich Garces Fitness Plan and suffered a right knee injury with the Dodgers in 2008, posting a .234 wOBA and performing nearly a full win worse than your garden variety waiver claim or minor league free agent. But since he left the West Cost, Jones has rebounded with wOBAs of .338 in 331 plate appearances with the Rangers in 2009 and .364 this past year in 328 trips to the plate with the White Sox.

While Rangers Ballpark and U.S. Cellular Field both boost right-handed power, Jones’ park and league-adjusted wOBA was still 14 percent above average (114 wRC+) from ’09 to ’10. As usual, his batting average on balls in play was far lower than most (.230 from ’09 to ’10, .274 career), but he walked in close to 14 percent of his plate appearances and posted an Isolated Power of exactly .250.

As a power hitter who performs best when pulling the ball — he has a .451 wOBA when ripping pitches to the left side over the past two years, compared to a .419 average for righty batters — Jones should find Yankee Stadium to his liking. The park is a neutral venue overall due to fewer doubles and triples being hit, but it boosts right-handed homers by 10 percent.

Jones is expected to shuttle around the outfield in the Bronx, occasionally filling in for lefties Brett Gardner (.316 wOBA in 262 career PA versus LHP) and Curtis Granderson (.275 career wOBA in 859 PA against southpaws) and perhaps getting some DH starts as well. It’s a role that he’ll fill well, and credit should go to the Yankees for adding a quality player to the roster at a minimal cost. But it’s arguably a role for which Jones is overqualified.

Gauging Jones’ defensive chops is admittedly difficult at this point, as he hasn’t played the outfield on more than a part-time basis since 2007. Maybe teams think he’s no longer a viable option as a regular outfielder. But if you think he can still cut it out there and he can put up a .340-.350 wOBA, Jones projects as a starting-caliber player. At this late juncture of free agency, however, jobs are scarce. In any event, kudos to the Yankees for bolstering their bench for an AL East Division fight that figures to be fierce yet again.

 

[proshares]

With the recent revelation that Albert Pujols will not negotiate a new contract during the season, the rumor mill is already turning with possible scenarios for the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman if he doesn't reach a new deal before spring training.

The three most likely scenarios to consider when analyzing the situation are fairly obvious: Either he re-signs with St. Louis, gets traded in July, or signs elsewhere next winter. When we break down these possibilities one by one it's easy to envision some pretty intriguing situations, such as Pujols ending up with the Cards' long-time divisional rivals, or peppering the Green Monster with line drives well into the next decade.
[h3]Scenario No. 1: Pujols stays with the Cardinals [/h3]
In order to determine where Pujols lands, we need to establish his value. His agent Dan Lozano is supposedly asking the Cardinals for a contract on par with the ten-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez currently operates within. (Pujols will be 32 when his next contract begins, the same age Rodriguez was when he signed his contract.) The difference is that A-Rod got that on the open market, and if Pujols re-signs before camp, he'll be negotiating only with St. Louis. He'll surely do better than the five-year, $125 million extension Ryan Howard got last season, and one source told Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman that the Cardinals could go as high as $196 million over seven years, which fits nicely between the A-Rod and Howard deals.

If Pujols signs a deal worth $28 million per year, that's a raise of more than $10 million; the Cards' 2011 payroll is already north of $100 million, and considering that their payroll has averaged $92.3 million over the past five years, they're probably at their upper limit. The Cardinals' 2012 commitments are at about $49 million right now, so adding Pujols' $28 million to that puts them at $77 million and gives them a core of Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Colby Rasmus. They could exercise Chris Carpenter's $15 million option, but that would put them at about $92 million with 18 roster spots left to fill. Sorry, St. Louis fans, but Pujols and Carpenter are probably mutually exclusive beyond 2011.

It's certainly within the Cardinals' means to re-sign Pujols before camp begins, but if they decide he'll be too much of a burden on their overall payroll, or if he holds out for a 10-year deal, that's when things will get interesting.
[h3]Scenario No. 2: Pujols gets moved in July 2011 [/h3]
Let's say the Cardinals have fallen out of the NL Central race in July -- the Milwaukee Brewers did acquire Zack Greinke, after all, and the Cincinnati Reds return much of their core. There will certainly be some trade buzz surrounding Pujols. Since he will cost a king's ransom in a trade (or at least a prince's), any team that acquires him would be one that thinks it can re-sign him. Plus, since Pujols has a full no-trade clause because of his 10-and-5 rights, that limits the field a bit.

A common refrain during this Pujols saga is that the market for him is weakened because since the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox -- baseball's biggest bidders -- both have established first basemen, they won't pay top dollar for another, so that one has to be a full-time DH, even if the other guy is Pujols. This is probably true about New York, as Mark Teixeira has six years left on his contract and a full no-trade clause, but what about the Red Sox? Yes, they traded for Adrian Gonzalez this winter and there was an understanding that he would soon sign a long-term extension, but he hasn't yet. You don't think Theo Epstein has Pujols in the back of his mind at this point? If the Red Sox wanted to, they could even give Gonzalez an extension and send him to the Cardinals in a trade for Pujols. I know what you're thinking: That's not worth it; Pujols isn't that much better than Gonzalez. But really, he is. Check out this graph comparing their Wins Above Replacement by year.





Yes, Pujols is a couple of years older, but he's an outlier in terms of talent perhaps more than anyone else in MLB. If the Red Sox can bring him on board, you don't think they'd be willing to flip Gonzalez? His current contract does not include any no-trade provisions, and it's not inconceivable to think he could be Pujols trade bait this summer if the Cardinals are scuffling. Gonzalez, who will certainly cost less than Pujols, would be a nice fit in St. Louis and keep the Cards in contention. Crazy? Maybe. But considering the high standard for success in the AL East, don't write the Red Sox off just yet.
[h3]Scenario No. 3: Pujols signs elsewhere next winter [/h3]
The Pujols-to-the-Sox scenario is admittedly far-fetched, so who are some potential free-agent suitors if we assume the Yanks and Sox are out of it? The Los Angeles Angels will also have some cash, and could move Kendry Morales to DH if need be. They're a possibility. The New York Mets have a bunch of money coming off the books next winter, but would they move promising young first baseman Ike Davis to right field, a position he played in college, to make room for Pujols? Possible, but unlikely. The real doomsday scenario for Cardinals fans is Pujols signing with the Chicago Cubs, which would be the modern-day equivalent of the Red Sox selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees.

Getty ImagesWrigley Field could someday be the home of Pujols.

The Cubbies have been plagued by some onerous contracts in recent years, but Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena could all be free agents after next season (Ramirez has a mutual option), and that's roughly $37.1 million off of the books. Other than beating them in the NLCS, is there a better way for the Cubs to stick it to the Cardinals than by signing Pujols? One thing's for sure: If he hits the market, Chicago will be there waiting to drive up the price.

We could have fun with crazy Pujols scenarios all day, but it's hard to imagine the Cardinals letting him go. St. Louis gave Holliday a huge deal last offseason, and that's not a move you make unless you plan on signing Pujols, no matter the cost. Holliday is an excellent player, but the Cardinals are not going to consistently contend with him and not Pujols.

If St. Louis somehow lets Pujols slip away, it will be reminiscent of when Barry Bonds finally retired. The Giants' status as a contending team had been propped up for many years by Bonds alone, and the same can be said for Pujols. The difference between him and the typical first baseman is about five wins a season. You don't need a WAR graph to know that's enough to turn St. Louis from a perennial contender into a perennial pretender.

 

Twenty years ago, the Cleveland Indians found themselves in desperate straits; the team was known enough for its futility to have a movie based on its story, and the finances were so weak that even Bill James said the organization was hopeless.

In 1991, John Hart replaced Hank Peters as GM of the Indians, and instead of simply letting the team tread water at the bottom of the division, Hart aggressively rebuilt the franchise, locking up the team's young core to long-term contracts.

Not only did Hart's long-term planning result in a turnaround of the franchise (six divisional titles and two World Series appearances during Hart's Cleveland stint), but it helped change the way teams thought about young players and long-term contracts.

Since then, signing a young player to a long-term contract several years before he hits free agency is common. Recently, the Colorado Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez until at least 2020 and 2017, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds inked NL MVP Joey Votto to a three-year, $38 million contract. In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays didn't even wait until Evan Longoria's second week in the majors to sign him to a six-year deal with three club options, a contract now regarded as one of the best deals around. And Albert Pujols's seven-year, $100 million contract turned out to be a great deal for the St. Louis Cardinals.

So who are some of the young players teams should be looking to sign now? For each player, I asked ZiPS to estimate, based on projections, up to what dollar figure a long-term contract remains a good idea for the team.

Figuring out the potential salary of free-agent years is pretty straightforward. Right now, the general consensus is that a win on the open market is worth about $4.5 million. For future years, I'm being conservative and assuming that this number increases by 5 percent a year, actually a bit below the usual growth rate. For example, that makes a win in 2013 worth just under $5 million and about $6 million for 2017.

Estimating arbitration awards is a little trickier. In the early days of salary arbitration, more cases went to an arbitrator than do nowadays. Arbitration can be a messy process and has caused bad feelings between teams and players in the past -- teams are, after all, attempting to place as poor a spin on a player's performance as possible -- so both parties try to avoid arbitration hearings nowadays. A typical player is eligible for salary arbitration for three seasons (players with three to five years of service time) with the top 17 percent of Year 2 players in service time getting a fourth year of arbitration.

Historically, arbitration awards for the three years of arbitration are roughly 40 percent, 60 percent and 80 percent of a player's value on the open market.

Let's get to some players.
[h3]Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins [/h3]
Even though trading Dan Uggla rather than extending him was the right move to make, the Marlins' haul for their slugging second baseman was fairly unimpressive. With an already disgruntled fan base reeling from yet another Marlins salary dump, why not try to sign Stanton long-term? He still has some holes in his game, but slugging .507 in the majors at age 20 is an impressive feat. It's no fluke, either, as the former second-round pick hit .313/.442/.729 for Double-A Jacksonville last year at an age when most players are still trying to figure out A-ball.

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ZiPS agrees with the scouts about Stanton's power potential -- it's not every day when you can envision someone hitting 50 in the majors and not feel like a daydream. ZiPS thinks he's objectively worth six years, $50 million pre-FA and seven years, $78 million through his first free agent, so the Marlins should see if they can get him to bite at 7/65 with an option year or two. As a second-round pick with only a $475K bonus and at least two years from arbitration, getting set for life now might be pretty tempting.
[h3]Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles [/h3]
He may be regarded by some as a disappointment, but he's a solid starter and, having just turned 25, still has a lot of potential. The Orioles are generally willing to sign their own players long-term, and with the minors having thinned out a bit, there's no obvious better option in the future.

Jones and the Orioles agreed to a one-year, $3.25 million contract for 2011. Extending it by four years and $32 million represents a fair offer, and due to the perception of Jones not living up to the hype, the O's might even be able to get him a bit below that figure.
[h3]Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals [/h3]
The impending free agency of Albert Pujols has been the big contract focus in St. Louis, but to be perfectly frank, the team's likely to lose money on the next Pujols contract. So it becomes important to have some cost certainty on the young players that should be part of their core for the next decade. Rasmus' name keeps coming up in trade rumors due to some friction between him ad, but he's a young power-hitting center fielder and not eligible yet for arbitration. ZiPS feels the Cardinals would benefit by offering up to 5/45 or 6/61. Having a young star locked up long-term may be a reasonable consolation if the team and Pujols can't come to an agreement.
[h3]Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates [/h3]
Like Rasmus, Andrew McCutchen is a young, solid, all-around center fielder who's barely old enough to drink and years away from a big payday. The Pirates should be even more willing to lock McCutchen up long-term, given the miserly nature of the organization for nearly 20 years.

Getty ImagesAndrew McCutchen could be a fixture on a developing Pirates squad, if they're willing to ante up for him.

McCutchen's defensive numbers were down in 2010, but it's generally a mistake to overreact to a single year of defensive stats, and his offensive game has enough strong points to make up for less-than-stellar glovework. 6/58 gets McCutchen through his first year of free agency and if the Pirates are unwilling to sign him, is there anyone they would keep long-term?
[h3]Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves [/h3]
Hanson is the only pitcher on this list, thanks to the general riskiness of pitchers. I considered adding Clayton Kershaw here instead, but Hanson has slightly less service time and was only a 22nd-round pick, while Kershaw may be less risk-averse due to receiving a $2.3 million signing bonus.

Hanson's a solidly built player, and with the Braves having some old starters and some Chipper Jones dollars eventually coming off the payroll, they have the motive and opportunity to sign Hanson. ZiPS sees a five-year, $40 million contract as a fair price for signing Hanson through his arbitration years.
[h3]Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers [/h3]
Andrus may not be up to the standards of the '90s Holy Trinity Plus 1 of A-Rod, Garciaparra, Jeter and Tejada, but he doesn't have to be to make locking him up a good idea for the Rangers. Not a lot of players are league-average shortstops in their early 20s, and there's every reason to expect Andrus to be worth two to three wins a year for the next decade. ZiPS suggests that the Rangers should be willing to give him $54 million for the next six years, buying out his first two years of free agency.
[h3]Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants [/h3]
It's hard to match first-round hype, but Posey managed to exceed it, hitting better and sooner than expected (.305/.357/.505) on his way to beating Heyward for the rookie of the year award. With Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum already set for life, Posey's the best candidate on the Giants to sign long-term. ZiPS thinks that five years, $55 million or below would be a win for the Giants.
[h3]Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves [/h3]
Heyward may have lost the rookie of the year award to Posey, but he's probably the safer bet thanks to the less physically stressful position. Just 20, Heyward showed no flaws in his game, recovering quickly from a few slumps, and even played Gold Glove defense in right, not something you often see from a guy listed at 6-foo-5, 240 pounds. The Braves have the option to sign Hanson long-term, but for Heyward, it's a requirement rather than a choice. At this point, Atlanta could just offer Heyward 10 years at the biggest number he can think of, and even a starting point in the negotiations should be nine figures.

 

[proshares]

With the recent revelation that Albert Pujols will not negotiate a new contract during the season, the rumor mill is already turning with possible scenarios for the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman if he doesn't reach a new deal before spring training.

The three most likely scenarios to consider when analyzing the situation are fairly obvious: Either he re-signs with St. Louis, gets traded in July, or signs elsewhere next winter. When we break down these possibilities one by one it's easy to envision some pretty intriguing situations, such as Pujols ending up with the Cards' long-time divisional rivals, or peppering the Green Monster with line drives well into the next decade.
[h3]Scenario No. 1: Pujols stays with the Cardinals [/h3]
In order to determine where Pujols lands, we need to establish his value. His agent Dan Lozano is supposedly asking the Cardinals for a contract on par with the ten-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez currently operates within. (Pujols will be 32 when his next contract begins, the same age Rodriguez was when he signed his contract.) The difference is that A-Rod got that on the open market, and if Pujols re-signs before camp, he'll be negotiating only with St. Louis. He'll surely do better than the five-year, $125 million extension Ryan Howard got last season, and one source told Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman that the Cardinals could go as high as $196 million over seven years, which fits nicely between the A-Rod and Howard deals.

If Pujols signs a deal worth $28 million per year, that's a raise of more than $10 million; the Cards' 2011 payroll is already north of $100 million, and considering that their payroll has averaged $92.3 million over the past five years, they're probably at their upper limit. The Cardinals' 2012 commitments are at about $49 million right now, so adding Pujols' $28 million to that puts them at $77 million and gives them a core of Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Colby Rasmus. They could exercise Chris Carpenter's $15 million option, but that would put them at about $92 million with 18 roster spots left to fill. Sorry, St. Louis fans, but Pujols and Carpenter are probably mutually exclusive beyond 2011.

It's certainly within the Cardinals' means to re-sign Pujols before camp begins, but if they decide he'll be too much of a burden on their overall payroll, or if he holds out for a 10-year deal, that's when things will get interesting.
[h3]Scenario No. 2: Pujols gets moved in July 2011 [/h3]
Let's say the Cardinals have fallen out of the NL Central race in July -- the Milwaukee Brewers did acquire Zack Greinke, after all, and the Cincinnati Reds return much of their core. There will certainly be some trade buzz surrounding Pujols. Since he will cost a king's ransom in a trade (or at least a prince's), any team that acquires him would be one that thinks it can re-sign him. Plus, since Pujols has a full no-trade clause because of his 10-and-5 rights, that limits the field a bit.

A common refrain during this Pujols saga is that the market for him is weakened because since the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox -- baseball's biggest bidders -- both have established first basemen, they won't pay top dollar for another, so that one has to be a full-time DH, even if the other guy is Pujols. This is probably true about New York, as Mark Teixeira has six years left on his contract and a full no-trade clause, but what about the Red Sox? Yes, they traded for Adrian Gonzalez this winter and there was an understanding that he would soon sign a long-term extension, but he hasn't yet. You don't think Theo Epstein has Pujols in the back of his mind at this point? If the Red Sox wanted to, they could even give Gonzalez an extension and send him to the Cardinals in a trade for Pujols. I know what you're thinking: That's not worth it; Pujols isn't that much better than Gonzalez. But really, he is. Check out this graph comparing their Wins Above Replacement by year.





Yes, Pujols is a couple of years older, but he's an outlier in terms of talent perhaps more than anyone else in MLB. If the Red Sox can bring him on board, you don't think they'd be willing to flip Gonzalez? His current contract does not include any no-trade provisions, and it's not inconceivable to think he could be Pujols trade bait this summer if the Cardinals are scuffling. Gonzalez, who will certainly cost less than Pujols, would be a nice fit in St. Louis and keep the Cards in contention. Crazy? Maybe. But considering the high standard for success in the AL East, don't write the Red Sox off just yet.
[h3]Scenario No. 3: Pujols signs elsewhere next winter [/h3]
The Pujols-to-the-Sox scenario is admittedly far-fetched, so who are some potential free-agent suitors if we assume the Yanks and Sox are out of it? The Los Angeles Angels will also have some cash, and could move Kendry Morales to DH if need be. They're a possibility. The New York Mets have a bunch of money coming off the books next winter, but would they move promising young first baseman Ike Davis to right field, a position he played in college, to make room for Pujols? Possible, but unlikely. The real doomsday scenario for Cardinals fans is Pujols signing with the Chicago Cubs, which would be the modern-day equivalent of the Red Sox selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees.

Getty ImagesWrigley Field could someday be the home of Pujols.

The Cubbies have been plagued by some onerous contracts in recent years, but Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena could all be free agents after next season (Ramirez has a mutual option), and that's roughly $37.1 million off of the books. Other than beating them in the NLCS, is there a better way for the Cubs to stick it to the Cardinals than by signing Pujols? One thing's for sure: If he hits the market, Chicago will be there waiting to drive up the price.

We could have fun with crazy Pujols scenarios all day, but it's hard to imagine the Cardinals letting him go. St. Louis gave Holliday a huge deal last offseason, and that's not a move you make unless you plan on signing Pujols, no matter the cost. Holliday is an excellent player, but the Cardinals are not going to consistently contend with him and not Pujols.

If St. Louis somehow lets Pujols slip away, it will be reminiscent of when Barry Bonds finally retired. The Giants' status as a contending team had been propped up for many years by Bonds alone, and the same can be said for Pujols. The difference between him and the typical first baseman is about five wins a season. You don't need a WAR graph to know that's enough to turn St. Louis from a perennial contender into a perennial pretender.

 

Twenty years ago, the Cleveland Indians found themselves in desperate straits; the team was known enough for its futility to have a movie based on its story, and the finances were so weak that even Bill James said the organization was hopeless.

In 1991, John Hart replaced Hank Peters as GM of the Indians, and instead of simply letting the team tread water at the bottom of the division, Hart aggressively rebuilt the franchise, locking up the team's young core to long-term contracts.

Not only did Hart's long-term planning result in a turnaround of the franchise (six divisional titles and two World Series appearances during Hart's Cleveland stint), but it helped change the way teams thought about young players and long-term contracts.

Since then, signing a young player to a long-term contract several years before he hits free agency is common. Recently, the Colorado Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez until at least 2020 and 2017, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds inked NL MVP Joey Votto to a three-year, $38 million contract. In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays didn't even wait until Evan Longoria's second week in the majors to sign him to a six-year deal with three club options, a contract now regarded as one of the best deals around. And Albert Pujols's seven-year, $100 million contract turned out to be a great deal for the St. Louis Cardinals.

So who are some of the young players teams should be looking to sign now? For each player, I asked ZiPS to estimate, based on projections, up to what dollar figure a long-term contract remains a good idea for the team.

Figuring out the potential salary of free-agent years is pretty straightforward. Right now, the general consensus is that a win on the open market is worth about $4.5 million. For future years, I'm being conservative and assuming that this number increases by 5 percent a year, actually a bit below the usual growth rate. For example, that makes a win in 2013 worth just under $5 million and about $6 million for 2017.

Estimating arbitration awards is a little trickier. In the early days of salary arbitration, more cases went to an arbitrator than do nowadays. Arbitration can be a messy process and has caused bad feelings between teams and players in the past -- teams are, after all, attempting to place as poor a spin on a player's performance as possible -- so both parties try to avoid arbitration hearings nowadays. A typical player is eligible for salary arbitration for three seasons (players with three to five years of service time) with the top 17 percent of Year 2 players in service time getting a fourth year of arbitration.

Historically, arbitration awards for the three years of arbitration are roughly 40 percent, 60 percent and 80 percent of a player's value on the open market.

Let's get to some players.
[h3]Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins [/h3]
Even though trading Dan Uggla rather than extending him was the right move to make, the Marlins' haul for their slugging second baseman was fairly unimpressive. With an already disgruntled fan base reeling from yet another Marlins salary dump, why not try to sign Stanton long-term? He still has some holes in his game, but slugging .507 in the majors at age 20 is an impressive feat. It's no fluke, either, as the former second-round pick hit .313/.442/.729 for Double-A Jacksonville last year at an age when most players are still trying to figure out A-ball.

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ZiPS agrees with the scouts about Stanton's power potential -- it's not every day when you can envision someone hitting 50 in the majors and not feel like a daydream. ZiPS thinks he's objectively worth six years, $50 million pre-FA and seven years, $78 million through his first free agent, so the Marlins should see if they can get him to bite at 7/65 with an option year or two. As a second-round pick with only a $475K bonus and at least two years from arbitration, getting set for life now might be pretty tempting.
[h3]Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles [/h3]
He may be regarded by some as a disappointment, but he's a solid starter and, having just turned 25, still has a lot of potential. The Orioles are generally willing to sign their own players long-term, and with the minors having thinned out a bit, there's no obvious better option in the future.

Jones and the Orioles agreed to a one-year, $3.25 million contract for 2011. Extending it by four years and $32 million represents a fair offer, and due to the perception of Jones not living up to the hype, the O's might even be able to get him a bit below that figure.
[h3]Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals [/h3]
The impending free agency of Albert Pujols has been the big contract focus in St. Louis, but to be perfectly frank, the team's likely to lose money on the next Pujols contract. So it becomes important to have some cost certainty on the young players that should be part of their core for the next decade. Rasmus' name keeps coming up in trade rumors due to some friction between him ad, but he's a young power-hitting center fielder and not eligible yet for arbitration. ZiPS feels the Cardinals would benefit by offering up to 5/45 or 6/61. Having a young star locked up long-term may be a reasonable consolation if the team and Pujols can't come to an agreement.
[h3]Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates [/h3]
Like Rasmus, Andrew McCutchen is a young, solid, all-around center fielder who's barely old enough to drink and years away from a big payday. The Pirates should be even more willing to lock McCutchen up long-term, given the miserly nature of the organization for nearly 20 years.

Getty ImagesAndrew McCutchen could be a fixture on a developing Pirates squad, if they're willing to ante up for him.

McCutchen's defensive numbers were down in 2010, but it's generally a mistake to overreact to a single year of defensive stats, and his offensive game has enough strong points to make up for less-than-stellar glovework. 6/58 gets McCutchen through his first year of free agency and if the Pirates are unwilling to sign him, is there anyone they would keep long-term?
[h3]Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves [/h3]
Hanson is the only pitcher on this list, thanks to the general riskiness of pitchers. I considered adding Clayton Kershaw here instead, but Hanson has slightly less service time and was only a 22nd-round pick, while Kershaw may be less risk-averse due to receiving a $2.3 million signing bonus.

Hanson's a solidly built player, and with the Braves having some old starters and some Chipper Jones dollars eventually coming off the payroll, they have the motive and opportunity to sign Hanson. ZiPS sees a five-year, $40 million contract as a fair price for signing Hanson through his arbitration years.
[h3]Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers [/h3]
Andrus may not be up to the standards of the '90s Holy Trinity Plus 1 of A-Rod, Garciaparra, Jeter and Tejada, but he doesn't have to be to make locking him up a good idea for the Rangers. Not a lot of players are league-average shortstops in their early 20s, and there's every reason to expect Andrus to be worth two to three wins a year for the next decade. ZiPS suggests that the Rangers should be willing to give him $54 million for the next six years, buying out his first two years of free agency.
[h3]Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants [/h3]
It's hard to match first-round hype, but Posey managed to exceed it, hitting better and sooner than expected (.305/.357/.505) on his way to beating Heyward for the rookie of the year award. With Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum already set for life, Posey's the best candidate on the Giants to sign long-term. ZiPS thinks that five years, $55 million or below would be a win for the Giants.
[h3]Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves [/h3]
Heyward may have lost the rookie of the year award to Posey, but he's probably the safer bet thanks to the less physically stressful position. Just 20, Heyward showed no flaws in his game, recovering quickly from a few slumps, and even played Gold Glove defense in right, not something you often see from a guy listed at 6-foo-5, 240 pounds. The Braves have the option to sign Hanson long-term, but for Heyward, it's a requirement rather than a choice. At this point, Atlanta could just offer Heyward 10 years at the biggest number he can think of, and even a starting point in the negotiations should be nine figures.