Twenty years ago, the
Cleveland Indians found themselves in desperate straits; the team was known enough for its futility to have a movie based on its story, and the finances were so weak that even Bill James said the organization was hopeless.
In 1991, John Hart replaced Hank Peters as GM of the Indians, and instead of simply letting the team tread water at the bottom of the division, Hart aggressively rebuilt the franchise, locking up the team's young core to long-term contracts.
Not only did Hart's long-term planning result in a turnaround of the franchise (six divisional titles and two World Series appearances during Hart's Cleveland stint), but it helped change the way teams thought about young players and long-term contracts.
Since then, signing a young player to a long-term contract several years before he hits free agency is common. Recently, the
Colorado Rockies locked up
Troy Tulowitzki and
Carlos Gonzalez until at least 2020 and 2017, respectively, and the
Cincinnati Reds inked NL MVP
Joey Votto to a three-year, $38 million contract. In 2008, the
Tampa Bay Rays didn't even wait until
Evan Longoria's second week in the majors to sign him to a six-year deal with three club options, a contract now regarded as one of the best deals around. And
Albert Pujols's seven-year, $100 million contract turned out to be a great deal for the
St. Louis Cardinals.
So who are some of the young players teams should be looking to sign now? For each player, I asked ZiPS to estimate, based on projections, up to what dollar figure a long-term contract remains a good idea for the team.
Figuring out the potential salary of free-agent years is pretty straightforward. Right now, the general consensus is that a win on the open market is worth about $4.5 million. For future years, I'm being conservative and assuming that this number increases by 5 percent a year, actually a bit below the usual growth rate. For example, that makes a win in 2013 worth just under $5 million and about $6 million for 2017.
Estimating arbitration awards is a little trickier. In the early days of salary arbitration, more cases went to an arbitrator than do nowadays. Arbitration can be a messy process and has caused bad feelings between teams and players in the past -- teams are, after all, attempting to place as poor a spin on a player's performance as possible -- so both parties try to avoid arbitration hearings nowadays. A typical player is eligible for salary arbitration for three seasons (players with three to five years of service time) with the top 17 percent of Year 2 players in service time getting a fourth year of arbitration.
Historically, arbitration awards for the three years of arbitration are roughly 40 percent, 60 percent and 80 percent of a player's value on the open market.
Let's get to some players.
[h3]
Mike Stanton,
Florida Marlins [/h3]
Even though trading
Dan Uggla rather than extending him was the right move to make, the Marlins' haul for their slugging second baseman was fairly unimpressive. With an already disgruntled fan base reeling from yet another Marlins salary dump, why not try to sign Stanton long-term? He still has some holes in his game, but slugging .507 in the majors at age 20 is an impressive feat. It's no fluke, either, as the former second-round pick hit .313/.442/.729 for Double-A Jacksonville last year at an age when most players are still trying to figure out A-ball.
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ZiPS agrees with the scouts about Stanton's power potential -- it's not every day when you can envision someone hitting 50 in the majors and not feel like a daydream. ZiPS thinks he's objectively worth six years, $50 million pre-FA and seven years, $78 million through his first free agent, so the Marlins should see if they can get him to bite at 7/65 with an option year or two. As a second-round pick with only a $475K bonus and at least two years from arbitration, getting set for life now might be pretty tempting.
[h3]
Adam Jones,
Baltimore Orioles [/h3]
He may be regarded by some as a disappointment, but he's a solid starter and, having just turned 25, still has a lot of potential. The Orioles are generally willing to sign their own players long-term, and with the minors having thinned out a bit, there's no obvious better option in the future.
Jones and the Orioles agreed to a one-year, $3.25 million contract for 2011. Extending it by four years and $32 million represents a fair offer, and due to the perception of Jones not living up to the hype, the O's might even be able to get him a bit below that figure.
[h3]
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals [/h3]
The impending free agency of Albert Pujols has been the big contract focus in St. Louis, but to be perfectly frank, the team's likely to lose money on the next Pujols contract. So it becomes important to have some cost certainty on the young players that should be part of their core for the next decade. Rasmus' name keeps coming up in trade rumors due to some friction between him ad, but he's a young power-hitting center fielder and not eligible yet for arbitration. ZiPS feels the Cardinals would benefit by offering up to 5/45 or 6/61. Having a young star locked up long-term may be a reasonable consolation if the team and Pujols can't come to an agreement.
[h3]
Andrew McCutchen,
Pittsburgh Pirates [/h3]
Like Rasmus, Andrew McCutchen is a young, solid, all-around center fielder who's barely old enough to drink and years away from a big payday. The Pirates should be even more willing to lock McCutchen up long-term, given the miserly nature of the organization for nearly 20 years.
Getty ImagesAndrew McCutchen could be a fixture on a developing Pirates squad, if they're willing to ante up for him.
McCutchen's defensive numbers were down in 2010, but it's generally a mistake to overreact to a single year of defensive stats, and his offensive game has enough strong points to make up for less-than-stellar glovework. 6/58 gets McCutchen through his first year of free agency and if the Pirates are unwilling to sign him, is there anyone they
would keep long-term?
[h3]
Tommy Hanson,
Atlanta Braves [/h3]
Hanson is the only pitcher on this list, thanks to the general riskiness of pitchers. I considered adding
Clayton Kershaw here instead, but Hanson has slightly less service time and was only a 22nd-round pick, while Kershaw may be less risk-averse due to receiving a $2.3 million signing bonus.
Hanson's a solidly built player, and with the Braves having some old starters and some
Chipper Jones dollars eventually coming off the payroll, they have the motive and opportunity to sign Hanson. ZiPS sees a five-year, $40 million contract as a fair price for signing Hanson through his arbitration years.
[h3]
Elvis Andrus,
Texas Rangers [/h3]
Andrus may not be up to the standards of the '90s Holy Trinity Plus 1 of A-Rod, Garciaparra, Jeter and Tejada, but he doesn't have to be to make locking him up a good idea for the Rangers. Not a lot of players are league-average shortstops in their early 20s, and there's every reason to expect Andrus to be worth two to three wins a year for the next decade. ZiPS suggests that the Rangers should be willing to give him $54 million for the next six years, buying out his first two years of free agency.
[h3]
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants [/h3]
It's hard to match first-round hype, but Posey managed to exceed it, hitting better and sooner than expected (.305/.357/.505) on his way to beating Heyward for the rookie of the year award. With
Matt Cain and
Tim Lincecum already set for life, Posey's the best candidate on the Giants to sign long-term. ZiPS thinks that five years, $55 million or below would be a win for the Giants.
[h3]
Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves [/h3]
Heyward may have lost the rookie of the year award to Posey, but he's probably the safer bet thanks to the less physically stressful position. Just 20, Heyward showed no flaws in his game, recovering quickly from a few slumps, and even played Gold Glove defense in right, not something you often see from a guy listed at 6-foo-5, 240 pounds. The Braves have the option to sign Hanson long-term, but for Heyward, it's a requirement rather than a choice. At this point, Atlanta could just offer Heyward 10 years at the biggest number he can think of, and even a starting point in the negotiations should be nine figures.