Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.

[proshares]

I'll edit it out. It's these goddamn links/pictures they post in their articles on ESPN, it posts the whole damn link when I try to paste.

With Rasmus, you've gotta think that with LaRussa back that he's not happy with that. They've been saying the right thing in St. Louis but even his teammates weren't happy with the way he handled the situation. If they get the right offer, they'll move him. Rangers are deep at pitching and outside of Shelby Miller I don't think STL has much SP depth in the minors so maybe a Holland and another player could get it done.

 

[cdonwashisname]

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

Originally Posted by briannnnn

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

what to do, what to do....do SOMETHING, theo. i don't dig bridge/rebuilding years

Run Prevention 1.1, am i rite?

Originally Posted by JohnnyRedStorm

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

what to do, what to do....do SOMETHING, theo. i don't dig bridge/rebuilding years

Trade for Carlos Beltran.

If you don't want Beltran You can trade for J Bay again

 

[cdonwashisname]

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

Originally Posted by briannnnn

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

what to do, what to do....do SOMETHING, theo. i don't dig bridge/rebuilding years

Run Prevention 1.1, am i rite?

Originally Posted by JohnnyRedStorm

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

what to do, what to do....do SOMETHING, theo. i don't dig bridge/rebuilding years

Trade for Carlos Beltran.

If you don't want Beltran You can trade for J Bay again

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by USA Pride4Life

A. Rendon a lock to go 1st overall?

   Just saw this but yes, he should be.  No way Cole or Purke should go before him.

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by USA Pride4Life

A. Rendon a lock to go 1st overall?

   Just saw this but yes, he should be.  No way Cole or Purke should go before him.

 

[N41D]

I really just want this to end...

I want Cliff back, bad. But gosh damn at this point I'd rather he just decided so we wouldn't have to read all these dumb *!* stories for much longer... When does FA open?

 

[N41D]

I really just want this to end...

I want Cliff back, bad. But gosh damn at this point I'd rather he just decided so we wouldn't have to read all these dumb *!* stories for much longer... When does FA open?

 

[proshares]

I'm like 90% sure, it's started already. I know players are declining options at this point. Beltre and Aramis have already declined their options.

 

[proshares]

I'm like 90% sure, it's started already. I know players are declining options at this point. Beltre and Aramis have already declined their options.

 

[JD617]

I'll edit it out. It's these goddamn links/pictures they post in their articles on ESPN, it posts the whole damn link when I try to paste.
Yuku is the worst for that, but there's a way to get around it. You can type some random +@%$ like "jdfsjkafns" and quote that, then delete the random letters and paste the article inside the empty quote box.

 

[JD617]

I'll edit it out. It's these goddamn links/pictures they post in their articles on ESPN, it posts the whole damn link when I try to paste.
Yuku is the worst for that, but there's a way to get around it. You can type some random +@%$ like "jdfsjkafns" and quote that, then delete the random letters and paste the article inside the empty quote box.

 

[proshares]

Less than an hour after the San Francisco Giants' Brian Wilson had struck out the Texas Rangers' Nelson Cruz to end the World Series, the Major League Players Association sent out a release: 142 players were eligible for free agency, and the signing period begins in five days. And so began the offseason, which is indeed a misnomer for there is no offseason in baseball anymore. This winter won't be as explosive as some others, but here are 10 storylines to watch.

---

[h3]Where will Cliff Lee sign?[/h3]

Lee

In his past 42 starts, he has played for four different teams and been handled by 10 different catchers. By mid-December, it could be five different teams. He is 32, left-handed and, despite two losses in the World Series, among the best postseason pitchers of all time. Lee has had opportunities to explore a contract extension with at least one of his most recent teams, but has resisted because he wants to experience full free agency. The New York Yankees, it would seem, will be the first and most aggressive pursuers of Lee. And the Yankees have to re-sign Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, and see if they can get Andy Pettitte to pitch another season. The Rangers will have more money to spend than in previous offseasons, giving them a chance to re-sign Lee, who said after Game 5 of the World Series, "I'd love to play for the Rangers.'' He is, by far, the best free-agent starter out there, which should drive up his price even more, perhaps to five years at around $20 million per year.
[h3]Where will Carl Crawford sign?[/h3]

Crawford

He is the best position player on the free-agent market. He is 29, he can run, he is an above-average defensive outfielder and has a tireless work ethic. The Tampa Bay Rays have no shot to sign him; at the money he's going to command, he would take up at least 25 percent of their payroll, and that's not good business in Tampa Bay. If the Yankees miss out on Lee, look for them to make a run at Crawford. The Los Angeles Angels, who need a boost after a subpar 2010, are likely to have interest; good friend/right fielder Torii Hunter is pushing it. The Boston Red Sox are expected to chase Crawford, especially if they lose third baseman Adrian Beltre and catcher Victor Martinez to free agency. Crawford hit third with some success down the stretch for the Rays, increasing his value. A deal in the $75-100 million range is likely.
[h3]Where will Jayson Werth sign?[/h3]

Werth

He is the second-best free-agent player out there. His representatives are supposedly looking for something around $100 million also in part because Werth is 31, he is so athletic and we have not seen all of his potential as a power hitter. It is unlikely that the Philadelphia Phillies can re-sign him because of the money they have spent in recent years on Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, et al. Werth hit .186 with runners in scoring position, an historically low number for anyone with his number of at-bats in those situations. That won't help him in free agency, but given that there are so few impact players out there on the market, he's going to get paid.
[h3]What big-name position players might be traded?[/h3]

Gonzalez

Fielder

There could be several, starting with two first basemen: Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Both can be free agents after the 2011 season, and the Milwaukee Brewers likely won't have the funds to re-sign Fielder, and the san Diego Padres won't have the cash to re-sign Gonzalez. Fielder's numbers fell slightly in 2010, and his body type is an issue, but he is 26 years old, and should have several good years left. Likely suitors are difficult to find because the Brewers, rightfully so, are looking for at least two really good young pitchers in return. Teams simply aren't willing to deal young pitching these days. The Padres will be looking for an enormous amount in return for Gonzalez, making a trade for him easier said than done. The Red Sox, in theory, could use a big bat at first base, but there are those in the organization that aren't sure that Kevin Youkilis can easily move back to third.
[h3]What big-name pitchers might be traded?[/h3]

Greinke

The Royals' Zack Greinke is at the top of that list partly because there is so little quality starting pitching available on the free-agent market. The Royals have a tremendous farm system, maybe the best in the game, but they need help, especially offensively, for 2011. Greinke is only one year removed from a Cy Young season, and still has great stuff, but one general manager said that teams might be hesitant to overpay for him because of some of the emotional issues that he has had in his career. But he would look good at the top of any team's rotation.
[h3]What is the possibility of expanded playoffs?[/h3]
Commissioner Bud Selig says he is strongly considering expanding the number of playoff teams, maybe going from eight to 10. It seems unlikely that such a bold move would be in place for 2011, but Selig is considering all options. The wild card has been a great element for baseball, but there is a danger in adding more playoff teams. The criticism of the stretch run of 2010 is that the Yankees and Rays were both going to the playoffs, making their final two weeks less dramatic. With another wild card, it's at least possible that, say, the Padres-Giants race in the NL West the final week of the season might not have meant nearly as much if the loser was headed to playoffs anyway instead of going home.
[h3]What is the possibility of expanded instant replay?[/h3]
Selig has essentially been against the concept, but has softened on it somewhat in the past year. Fortunately for the game, there were no embarrassingly bad calls that cost a team a game in the postseason. That might be all it will take before MLB expands replay. But for now, there's very little chance that it will be instituted for 2011. Eventually, it will be here. One umpire that worked the World Series said he would welcome replay: "The technology is there. We should use it. It would be good. The last thing I want is to leave a city knowing I cost a team a game.'' MLB will also discuss umpire relations with the players and managers this winter in hopes of making that relationship less contentious.
[h3]What team will have the most decisions to make this winter?[/h3]

There are several teams with a lot to do, but none more than the Red Sox. They have to decide whether they're going to re-sign catcher Victor Martinez, or go with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek behind the plate. DH David Ortiz is an issue, also. He wants a multiyear extension, but the Red Sox might just pick up his club option without extending him. Third baseman Adrian Beltre had a terrific year, but is a free agent, and naturally is going to want a lot of money to return. If he doesn't come back, it's not certain that Kevin Youkilis can adjust to playing third again. This team needs another hitter, be it Carl Crawford, or perhaps via a trade for Adrian Gonzalez. But any deal for Gonzalez will require dealing young pitching, and everyone will want hard-throwing Josh Bard, a potential closer. The future of closer Jonathan Papelbon in Boston is hardly secure, either. He will make $13 million next year. A trade for him isn't out of the question.
[h3]How much will the Rays lose?[/h3]

Carl Crawford will leave. Chances are, so will closer Rafael Soriano and maybe setup man Joaquin Benoit, who gave the Tampa Bay the best setup-closer combination in the game in 2010. Shortstop Jason Bartlett is a free agent, as is first baseman Carlos Pena. If anyone stays, it is likely to be Pena, who loves the situation in Tampa Bay, and is a team leader. To make up for the all the losses, the Rays might have to trade a pitcher for a bat. Dealing Matt Garza seems like a bad idea, but he could bring more than would James Shields.
[h3]Where are the World Series teams headed from here?[/h3]

The Giants have a lot of work to do, but not with their pitching. With that fabulous rotation alone, they should contend in a weak division for years to come. They have a number of decisions to make with their everyday players, beginning with first baseman Aubrey Huff, who is eligible for free agency. He had no job last winter until the Giants called, then he went on to lead the team in all three Triple Crown categories. He also established himself as a vital clubhouse presence. A decision on Pat Burrell's future is expected, also. Manager Bruce Bochy raved about Burrell's leadership skills down the stretch, as well as his production, but his 22 strikeouts in 42 at-bats in the postseason were troubling.

The Rangers are a very good young team with a bright future. With new ownership and a stimulated fan base, the Rangers are in position to spend more money this winter than they have in several years. They have found their first baseman of the future in Mitch Moreland, and their farm system is loaded with good young pitching, but their biggest question remains: Can they re-sign Cliff Lee? That will be the biggest question of the winter.

I think it worked JD, good looks

.

 

[proshares]

Less than an hour after the San Francisco Giants' Brian Wilson had struck out the Texas Rangers' Nelson Cruz to end the World Series, the Major League Players Association sent out a release: 142 players were eligible for free agency, and the signing period begins in five days. And so began the offseason, which is indeed a misnomer for there is no offseason in baseball anymore. This winter won't be as explosive as some others, but here are 10 storylines to watch.

---

[h3]Where will Cliff Lee sign?[/h3]

Lee

In his past 42 starts, he has played for four different teams and been handled by 10 different catchers. By mid-December, it could be five different teams. He is 32, left-handed and, despite two losses in the World Series, among the best postseason pitchers of all time. Lee has had opportunities to explore a contract extension with at least one of his most recent teams, but has resisted because he wants to experience full free agency. The New York Yankees, it would seem, will be the first and most aggressive pursuers of Lee. And the Yankees have to re-sign Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, and see if they can get Andy Pettitte to pitch another season. The Rangers will have more money to spend than in previous offseasons, giving them a chance to re-sign Lee, who said after Game 5 of the World Series, "I'd love to play for the Rangers.'' He is, by far, the best free-agent starter out there, which should drive up his price even more, perhaps to five years at around $20 million per year.
[h3]Where will Carl Crawford sign?[/h3]

Crawford

He is the best position player on the free-agent market. He is 29, he can run, he is an above-average defensive outfielder and has a tireless work ethic. The Tampa Bay Rays have no shot to sign him; at the money he's going to command, he would take up at least 25 percent of their payroll, and that's not good business in Tampa Bay. If the Yankees miss out on Lee, look for them to make a run at Crawford. The Los Angeles Angels, who need a boost after a subpar 2010, are likely to have interest; good friend/right fielder Torii Hunter is pushing it. The Boston Red Sox are expected to chase Crawford, especially if they lose third baseman Adrian Beltre and catcher Victor Martinez to free agency. Crawford hit third with some success down the stretch for the Rays, increasing his value. A deal in the $75-100 million range is likely.
[h3]Where will Jayson Werth sign?[/h3]

Werth

He is the second-best free-agent player out there. His representatives are supposedly looking for something around $100 million also in part because Werth is 31, he is so athletic and we have not seen all of his potential as a power hitter. It is unlikely that the Philadelphia Phillies can re-sign him because of the money they have spent in recent years on Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, et al. Werth hit .186 with runners in scoring position, an historically low number for anyone with his number of at-bats in those situations. That won't help him in free agency, but given that there are so few impact players out there on the market, he's going to get paid.
[h3]What big-name position players might be traded?[/h3]

Gonzalez

Fielder

There could be several, starting with two first basemen: Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Both can be free agents after the 2011 season, and the Milwaukee Brewers likely won't have the funds to re-sign Fielder, and the san Diego Padres won't have the cash to re-sign Gonzalez. Fielder's numbers fell slightly in 2010, and his body type is an issue, but he is 26 years old, and should have several good years left. Likely suitors are difficult to find because the Brewers, rightfully so, are looking for at least two really good young pitchers in return. Teams simply aren't willing to deal young pitching these days. The Padres will be looking for an enormous amount in return for Gonzalez, making a trade for him easier said than done. The Red Sox, in theory, could use a big bat at first base, but there are those in the organization that aren't sure that Kevin Youkilis can easily move back to third.
[h3]What big-name pitchers might be traded?[/h3]

Greinke

The Royals' Zack Greinke is at the top of that list partly because there is so little quality starting pitching available on the free-agent market. The Royals have a tremendous farm system, maybe the best in the game, but they need help, especially offensively, for 2011. Greinke is only one year removed from a Cy Young season, and still has great stuff, but one general manager said that teams might be hesitant to overpay for him because of some of the emotional issues that he has had in his career. But he would look good at the top of any team's rotation.
[h3]What is the possibility of expanded playoffs?[/h3]
Commissioner Bud Selig says he is strongly considering expanding the number of playoff teams, maybe going from eight to 10. It seems unlikely that such a bold move would be in place for 2011, but Selig is considering all options. The wild card has been a great element for baseball, but there is a danger in adding more playoff teams. The criticism of the stretch run of 2010 is that the Yankees and Rays were both going to the playoffs, making their final two weeks less dramatic. With another wild card, it's at least possible that, say, the Padres-Giants race in the NL West the final week of the season might not have meant nearly as much if the loser was headed to playoffs anyway instead of going home.
[h3]What is the possibility of expanded instant replay?[/h3]
Selig has essentially been against the concept, but has softened on it somewhat in the past year. Fortunately for the game, there were no embarrassingly bad calls that cost a team a game in the postseason. That might be all it will take before MLB expands replay. But for now, there's very little chance that it will be instituted for 2011. Eventually, it will be here. One umpire that worked the World Series said he would welcome replay: "The technology is there. We should use it. It would be good. The last thing I want is to leave a city knowing I cost a team a game.'' MLB will also discuss umpire relations with the players and managers this winter in hopes of making that relationship less contentious.
[h3]What team will have the most decisions to make this winter?[/h3]

There are several teams with a lot to do, but none more than the Red Sox. They have to decide whether they're going to re-sign catcher Victor Martinez, or go with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek behind the plate. DH David Ortiz is an issue, also. He wants a multiyear extension, but the Red Sox might just pick up his club option without extending him. Third baseman Adrian Beltre had a terrific year, but is a free agent, and naturally is going to want a lot of money to return. If he doesn't come back, it's not certain that Kevin Youkilis can adjust to playing third again. This team needs another hitter, be it Carl Crawford, or perhaps via a trade for Adrian Gonzalez. But any deal for Gonzalez will require dealing young pitching, and everyone will want hard-throwing Josh Bard, a potential closer. The future of closer Jonathan Papelbon in Boston is hardly secure, either. He will make $13 million next year. A trade for him isn't out of the question.
[h3]How much will the Rays lose?[/h3]

Carl Crawford will leave. Chances are, so will closer Rafael Soriano and maybe setup man Joaquin Benoit, who gave the Tampa Bay the best setup-closer combination in the game in 2010. Shortstop Jason Bartlett is a free agent, as is first baseman Carlos Pena. If anyone stays, it is likely to be Pena, who loves the situation in Tampa Bay, and is a team leader. To make up for the all the losses, the Rays might have to trade a pitcher for a bat. Dealing Matt Garza seems like a bad idea, but he could bring more than would James Shields.
[h3]Where are the World Series teams headed from here?[/h3]

The Giants have a lot of work to do, but not with their pitching. With that fabulous rotation alone, they should contend in a weak division for years to come. They have a number of decisions to make with their everyday players, beginning with first baseman Aubrey Huff, who is eligible for free agency. He had no job last winter until the Giants called, then he went on to lead the team in all three Triple Crown categories. He also established himself as a vital clubhouse presence. A decision on Pat Burrell's future is expected, also. Manager Bruce Bochy raved about Burrell's leadership skills down the stretch, as well as his production, but his 22 strikeouts in 42 at-bats in the postseason were troubling.

The Rangers are a very good young team with a bright future. With new ownership and a stimulated fan base, the Rangers are in position to spend more money this winter than they have in several years. They have found their first baseman of the future in Mitch Moreland, and their farm system is loaded with good young pitching, but their biggest question remains: Can they re-sign Cliff Lee? That will be the biggest question of the winter.

I think it worked JD, good looks

.

 

[clevelandsprince23]

Are the Indians ever going to be good again?

I'm into baseball, but not nearly as much as basketball & football

MLB experts on here should I have any hope?

 

[clevelandsprince23]

Are the Indians ever going to be good again?

I'm into baseball, but not nearly as much as basketball & football

MLB experts on here should I have any hope?

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward an immediate 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

First up: the Chicago Cubs. It's time to kiss 'em goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
Although the Cubs were blessed with a relatively easy schedule at the season's outset, they collapsed right at the start -- opening 15-22 -- and never recovered. Derrek Lee struggled early, and Aramis Ramirez batted .152 in April and .173 in May. Meanwhile, the Cubs' bullpen problems were so acute that then-manager Lou Piniella felt compelled to shift Carlos Zambrano into a relief role, and that seemed to feed into the explosion that Big Z had in the middle of the season. Piniella announced his intention to retire and then stepped away in August, and the Cubs -- just a couple of seasons removed from 2008, when they dominated the National League -- were left to consider a major overhaul.

There's good news, though: Starlin Castro has competed for a batting title and established himself as a big league shortstop even before he can drink legally. Carlos Silva stunned the baseball world with his strong first half after being dumped by the Seattle Mariners, and Carlos Marmol averaged almost two strikeouts per inning in his first full year as the Cubs' closer.

GM Jim Hendry must identify a new manager, and the Cubs must determine whether Zambrano's late-season surge is reason enough to expect that his anger management has helped him turn a corner. The Cubs need a first baseman to replace Lee, who was traded in August, and a starting pitcher to step into left-hander Ted Lilly's spot. They will wait to hear whether Ramirez picks up his $14.6 million option for 2011; given the need to get out from under too many crippling contracts (Alfonso Soriano's and Zambrano's are two others), the Cubs probably would be thrilled if Ramirez walked away. -- Buster Olney


[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Castro was great; another rookie, outfielder Tyler Colvin, became a power source. Catcher Geovany Soto bounced back to his rookie of the year form of 2008 after an awful sophomore season. Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome finally lived up to the hype in his third season after coming over from Japan and became a source of on-base percentage. Marlon Byrd proved to be a good free-agent signing; he was selected to play in the All-Star Game.

What went wrong: After starting the season with hopes of contending for the NL Central title, their poor start really hurt them. The Cubs eventually went into retooling mode as they traded Lilly, Lee and infielders Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot.

What won't happen again: The Cubs won't be as reliant on veterans as they have been in recent years. Although Hendry will have a hard time moving the big contracts of Zambrano and Soriano this winter, the Cubs will look to get younger and likely will have new blood on the bench: Hall of Famer and Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg is the heavy favorite to replace Piniella after being named manager of the year in the Pacific Coast League with Triple-A Iowa.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
The rumblings: Some believe Ramirez may do the club a favor and decline the $14.6 million player option he holds for 2011, but don't count on that happening. As mentioned above, Zambrano has pitched to his contract lately, and that leaves the Cubs with mixed feelings: If he's pitching well sans the shenanigans, Z is a front-line starter; he's also more attractive trade bait. The bet within the rumor mill is he'll be back; that would provide another answer in a rotation that isn't likely to be buttressed with a big signing. More likely: Look for Jeff Samardzija to get another shot.

A move that could work: One of the more quizzical moves of the trade deadline wasn't a move at all. Adam Dunn was rumored to be traded to numerous places -- and was very closely linked with the Chicago White Sox -- but ultimately, the Nats decided to hold on to their Bunyanesque slugger. Good for the Cubs. After parting ways with Lee, if the Cubs are willing to give Dunn a four-year deal -- and he would have signed with Washington if it had offered that -- they have a great shot to get him. Dunn still wants to play in the field, so an NL team without the option to use him as a designated hitter would fit, and he's made no secret about his affection for playing in Chicago.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
The Cubs' system, known more for its depth than star power, has little impact talent to offer the 2011 squad. That said, 2009 first-round pick Brett Jackson could patrol the Wrigley Field outfield at some point during the season. Although he slowed down a bit at Double-A after a blistering first half in the high-A Florida State League, Jackson's power/speed package -- along with good defense -- should make a difference. Strikeouts will preclude a high average, though.

Now, it's time to kiss the Baltimore Orioles goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
Early this season, the Orioles played four consecutive series against the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox; as a result, they were buried quickly and headed to their 13th straight losing season.

As center fielder Adam Jones says, though, the O's play and outlook shifted after Buck Showalter was hired as manager, with the players paying closer attention to details. Baltimore has played well, and Showalter says he has been impressed with the development of catcher Matt Wieters, the intensity of Nick Markakis and the play of others. Showalter also believes that the competitiveness of Brian Matusz could rub off on Baltimore's other pitchers. The Orioles have won 23 of their first 38 games under Showalter, and it's evident that he will have a major impact on the organization as plans are made.

The developments of Matusz and others have given the Orioles a modest beachhead in their effort to overrun the AL East monsters, but they still lack enough pitching and position prospects in the eyes of rival evaluators. "They just don't have a lot of depth," one AL evaluator said. "When you look at the Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees, it's like they have talent coming in waves. The Orioles aren't close to having that." The Orioles still have a gaping organizational hole at shortstop, which they hope they can fill with Manny Machado, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft.

What went right: Guys such as Jones, Wieters, Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen -- key youngsters who all appeared to be going backward this season -- have performed well since Showalter arrived, providing optimism going into next year. The Orioles' defense is benefiting from the return of Brian Roberts and the departure of Miguel Tejada; the team's batting average on balls in play has improved from .313 before to .284 since.

What went wrong: The Orioles came out of the gate 2-16; it's nearly impossible to start that way in the AL East and have any drama left in the season aside from the eventual firing of your manager. They were 15-39 when manager Dave Trembley got the ax in early June. Roberts missed virtually the entire first half thanks to an abdominal strain and a herniated disc.

What won't happen again: Recent Orioles squads have spent long stretches playing as though they had essentially quit on first-time major league managers such as Lee Mazzilli, Sam Perlozzo and Trembley once it became clear they wouldn't be the ones to change the culture of losing. Showalter has had enough success at the big league level and commands enough respect that he'll be able to give this team the necessary kick in the pants should it begin to drift, with enough support from management to back him up. He has more young talent at his disposal than any of those skippers had and hopefully should have fewer last-legs veterans hanging around to play out the string.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Possible targets: Although the Orioles say they've gotten what they wanted from Kevin Millwood, the league-leading total of earned runs he's given up at this writing aren't what they're referring to. No, that's his clubhouse presence; he's a guide for the young core. Look for GM Andy McPhail to take another shot at an innings-eater. One interesting option is Javier Vazquez, but he may look for an escape from the AL East. However, other names -- such as Vicente Padilla, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Doug Davis, Jake Westbrook or Rodrigo Lopez -- could be options.

Keeper league: Given its home park, Camden Yards, Baltimore's scoring the third-fewest runs in baseball is startling. But don't expect the O's to start courting free-agent bats before they try to keep around their own. Leading homer man Luke Scott will be due a raise from the half-million dollars he earned this year, but the club might be able to get him cheaper than any other 30-homer bat. Same story with Ty Wigginton, who has tailed off but still has good pop for the $3.5 million he pocketed this season. The big question is whether the Orioles will try to ink Jones to a longer deal, perhaps in the four-year range. The bet here is they will.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
Known for their young pitching, the Orioles have more coming. Some scouts feel that left-hander Zach Britton could be the best of the bunch. A third-round pick in 2006 out of a Texas high school, the 22-year-old added a bit of velocity this year and now has the best sinker in the minor leagues. He's generally regarded as a No. 3 starter when he gets to Camden Yards, but his absolute ceiling could be a left-handed version of Brandon Webb.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
After many years of failure, many years of struggle and another 100-loss season, you can understand why Pirates fans might be skeptical about the plan in place.

But rival evaluators believe that the Pittsburgh organization is in a better place than it was a few years ago. The Pirates have more high-ceiling talent from Pedro Alvarez to Jameson Taillon, their top pick in June's draft. However, they have made little progress in putting together enough high-end pitching to compete for the NL Central title any time soon -- although the deal for James McDonald appears as if it can pay off.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Most of the Pirates' positives did not show up in the standings, but this was a fruitful year for the franchise nonetheless. Chris Snyder and McDonald came over in trades for spare parts; McDonald gives the Pirates a much-needed pitcher who has plus stuff and can miss bats. Prospects Alvarez and Jose Tabata, along with Neil Walker, all have impressed. This is said many years, but the Pirates have hope to do something -- maybe not win the NL Central, but be better -- in 2011.

What went wrong: The Opening Day lineup. Second baseman Akinori Iwamura hit .182/.292/.267 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) before being demoted, then released. Andy LaRoche, in what may have been his last shot at becoming a major league regular, has hit .208/.270/.280 and lost his third baseman's job to Alvarez in June. Jeff Clement, who was picked up in a trade last summer, failed as the starting first baseman and was replaced by Garrett Jones, who didn't have the best of years either; Jones spent most of 2010 coming off his out-of-nowhere 2009 success and now sits at just .247/.307/.415, well below the offensive requirements for any of his possible positions. None of the Jeff Karstens, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf group is a talented-enough pitcher to overcome the horrendous defensive play behind him, but the four have combined for 521.2 innings anyway.

What won't happen again: Thanks to Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata and Walker, the Pirates will start 2011 with a lineup that isn't laughable -- which isn't something you could say about the 2010 one. Squint a little bit, and you can see the beginnings of their turn toward putting a quality product on the field. It's almost impossible for Charlie Morton to be this terrible again, especially considering his peripherals and that he missed time with injury. A full season of McDonald will be more valuable than people realize. If Alvarez shifts to first base and the Pirates are able to find defensive-minded contributors for shortstop and third base, they would greatly help a pitch-to-contact staff.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Possible targets: GM Neal Huntington gained some credibility with the trade that brought in McDonald from the Dodgers for Octavio Dotel. If the Pirates make any major moves between now and Opening Day 2011, it likely will be for more pitching. They could go for a middle-tier free agent such as Kevin Millwood to eat up innings. They might seek a bargain with a Brad Penny for Erik Bedard, whose value is down thanks to injury. The word is that the Pirates no longer view Jones as an everyday player, so they will look for a right-handed first baseman or a right fielder. Austin Kearns, unlikely to return to the Yankees, could be a fit.

Keeper league: The Pirates would love to upgrade a pitching staff that is last in the majors with a 5.08 ERA, but what do they have to sell? The Bucs have been trying Ryan Doumit in right field for a few months and may showcase him as possible trade bait. Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek will compete for the closer's job in spring training, and the loser of the race could be shopped as well. Small-market teams such as the Bucs will be under increased scrutiny because of the media reports that they are pocketing revenue-sharing cash. Even then, the Pirates learned a lesson in the Iwamura deal and will continue to be fiscally cautious.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
The Pirates are finally seeing some of their young talent in the big leagues, so is anyone left on the farm?

The answer is yes, but it's mostly players who are long-term bets as opposed to quick fixes. As desperate as the Pirates are for pitching, they do hope that right-hander Bryan Morris can continue to build on his 2010 breakout campaign. A first-round pick by the Dodgers in 2006 who came over in the complicated Jason Bay-Manny Ramirez three-way deal with the Boston Red Sox, Morris found his command this year, allowing his above-average velocity and impressive curveball to play up, as he struck out 124 batters in 133 2/3 innings while walking just 38. The Pirates' truly high-ceiling arms are all teenagers and eons away, but Morris could provide a small rotation upgrade.

Now, it's time to kiss the Kansas City Royals goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
Just about everything went wrong for the Royals this year. Their offense was stagnant for most of the season, as expected, and Kansas City's pitching never really materialized at the level that the Royals needed to be relevant; the Royals went into play on Thursday as one of only two teams in the majors with an ERA over 5.00. Manager Trey Hillman was fired and Jose Guillen -- the team's most expensive player -- was designated for assignment before being dumped in a trade. Even Zack Greinke -- who seemed to rise about Kansas City's troubles in 2009 to single-handedly lift the team -- seemed frustrated at times, speaking out loud about his uncertainty about whether he will be around if and when the Royals are contenders again.

In positive news, Joakim Soria capitalized on the relatively few opportunities he had to finish games and established himself as arguably the best AL closer not named Mariano Rivera. Soria has averaged more than a strikeout per inning this year, and opponents have posted a .577 OPS against him this year. And Wilson Betemit, a 28-year-old who has long been seen as a promising hitter, has had an excellent season for the Royals, with an on-base percentage close to .400.

Like the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Royals have gaping holes in their roster, needing long-term solutions at catcher, both middle infield spots, third base, three places in their rotation, and some middle relievers. But unlike the Pirates, the Royals appear to have a tremendous wave of talent almost ready to arrive, like third baseman Mike Moustakas and first baseman Eric Hosmer. "They're loaded," said one GM, who compared the high level of talent in the Royals' system to what the Tampa Bay Rays had in 2005 and 2006.

A major question for the Royals, however, is whether this talent will begin to blossom in the big leagues before -- or after -- the team is compelled to consider taking offers for Greinke.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Billy Butler, the current position player most likely to contribute to the next winning Royals team, continued to improve his approach at the plate. The right-handed designated hitter increased both his batting average and walk rate while sharply reducing his strikeout rate. Although his power numbers dipped slightly, Butler's superior discipline at the plate in 2010 should pay big dividends in the future.

What went wrong: The 2010 Royals were designed to hit singles, and singles just don't win ballgames. The team's offense has ranked third in batting average (.274) in the AL, but just 10th in runs scored. Meanwhile, almost every starting pitcher on the team took a step backward from 2009. Greinke lost the ability to use his breaking ball as an out pitch, Luke Hochevar landed on the disabled list, Brian Bannister has allowed more earned runs than he recorded strikeouts, and Kyle Davies carried over his grim 2009 performance into 2010.

What won't happen again: It's unlikely that future squads will be staffed by a group of players that so uniformly resemble reheated leftovers. With the departures of Guillen, Scott Podsednik and Alberto Callaspo, the team is poised to enter 2011 with a younger profile and a lighter payroll.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Possible targets: Greinke knew exactly what he was doing in August when he expressed his doubts about the speed of the Royals' youth-based rebuilding plan. The franchise pitcher is under contract only through 2012 and wants some improvement right away. The Royals need to make some sort of splash to keep Greinke and the fan base happy, and it can't hurt to add some offensive pop to a lineup that ranks 27th in home runs. Why not overpay a little for Adam Dunn and make him a full-time DH? The Royals were very interested in outfielder Jeff Francoeur before he landed in Texas, and one late-season report speculates that he is headed to Kansas City in 2011 -- the Dayton Moore connection lives on. Catcher Jason Kendall won't be back until early next season, so a free-agent signing such as Bengie Molina could be a stopgap measure.

Keeper league: The Royals were shopping up-and-coming outfielder David DeJesus before his season-ending injury in July, but it is more likely they will pick up his option at the bargain price of $6 million. The Royals are optimistic about their pitching further down the system, but Greinke could use some help now, particularly if the Royals decide not to tender Davies and/or Bannister. Hochevar showed some improvement this season and figures to stick around in 2010. Look for the Royals to again look for a diamond-in-the-rough signing, a strategy that worked well last offseason with Podsednik, who hit over .300 before being shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
No system has more impact-level prospects than the Royals, but the one most likely to make some big league noise in 2011 is third baseman Mike Moustakas. The second overall pick in the 2007 draft put it all together this year, tying for the minor league lead with 36 home runs while batting .322/.369/.630 across Double- and Triple-A. No player in the minor leagues can match his bat speed, and while some are concerned with his free-swinging ways, he's such a good hitter that it's not going to matter. One scout needed just three words to put it succinctly: "Kid's gonna mash."

Now, it's time to kiss the Houston Astros goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
The Astros opened the year by losing their first eight games, and the team's offense completely disappeared in the first four months of the season, as Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee struggled. By the middle of June, Houston was 19 games under .500, and the team's two signature stars, Berkman and Roy Oswalt, began indicating they were ready to leave the organization. Only two teams scored fewer runs than the Astros in the first half, and the Astros tied for dead last in home runs.

Since the trades of Oswalt and Berkman, though, Houston has played dramatically better. The organization committed to rebuilding around young players like Chris Johnson, and rival scouts have been greatly impressed with the energy level and improvement of the team under first-year manager Brad Mills. Astros GM Ed Wade believes the strong finish could carry over into 2011 because the same pitching staff that has fueled this turnaround will return virtually intact.

Realistically, though, Houston needs to find long-term solutions at second base and shortstop, and the Astros cannot follow up on their second-half success unless Lee can produce much better in the first half of next season. But with Berkman and Oswalt off the Houston payroll, the Astros are in a much more flexible position to address any needs. For years, advisors to Drayton McLane had told him that the club was in need of an overhaul, and for the first time, he listened -- and the Astros already seem to be on the rise again.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Since June 1, Houston's actually the second-best team in the NL Central -- in that span it's only one game off the pace of the Cincinnati Reds. Hunter Pence recovered from a miserable start and Johnson became a young star at 3B after Pedro Feliz faltered. It was the pitching that turned the Astros around, as the hurlers dropped just over a run per game (from 5.12 to 4.09) from June on. Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris (a 2.24 ERA and a 3.90 ERA from July to present, respectively) have been the most improved, J.A. Happ has been a solid addition, and Brett Myers has been solid throughout. They have also had good luck, playing about nine games above their projected record.

What went wrong: As noted above, they spent the first two months of their season on pace to lose 108 games. Even in the generally weak NL Central, that's not good. Younger players Tommy Manzella, Justin Towles and Jason Castro crashed on takeoff. The failure of the latter pair meant that Astros backstops have hit .222/.273/.315 this year.

What won't happen again: The tradable vets are gone, so there will be no more restocking Houston's pantry with goods from other clubs' larders. Assuming that Ed Wade cannot make a huge splash in what will be a fairly thin free-agent market, further rebuilding efforts will have to come from within, and there's just not enough talent on hand to make it work. If its good luck fades, Houston's 2011 will more closely resemble the first two months of 2010 than the last four.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Ready to take off: McLane had traditionally been slow to cut the cord with franchise cornerstones, but the trades of Berkman and Oswalt over the summer clearly signaled a change of course. Mills deserves some credit for what has become a strong finish, but that goodwill will evaporate quickly if the Stros have another slow start. Look for the Astros to try to avoid the question mark in the bullpen by giving Matt Lindstrom every chance to win the closer's job next spring.

Houston could use some extra offensive pop at shortstop and second base, so how about a play for Mark Ellis or Jose Lopez if their current teams pass on 2011 contract options? Berkman was hoping he could return to the Astros next season after a few months in New York, but that is looking unlikely due to the commitment to Brett Wallace.

Dollar signs: Yes, we know that Lee will take home $19 million next season. But there is some wiggle room financially now that the Astros have parted ways not only with Oswalt and Berkman, but Kaz Matsui and Feliz as well. GM Ed Wade will have some extra money to spend, but a built-in excuse will be a notable attendance decline of 8.4 percent from last season.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
Right-hander Jordan Lyles doesn't turn 20 until October, but he already has a year of pitching at the upper levels under his belt, and will likely hit the big leagues before he can legally have a glass of champagne to celebrate. A supplemental first-round selection in 2008, Lyles has the maturity and command of a veteran, and while that has allowed him to move quickly there is still much debate as to whether that means a star-level ceiling. His fastball is just a tick above average in terms of velocity, and his curveball should be good enough to keep hitters off balance in the majors. His rapid rise has been impressive. Still, most scouts think he's a good middle-rotation starter as opposed to an All-Star -- but even pitchers like that are worth eight figures annually on the open market.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-marinersSeattle Mariners goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
The fragile equation that had served the Mariners so well in 2009 -- strong defense and pitching making up for the lack of consistent offense -- fell apart this year, and Seattle went on a downward spiral in the standings. Cliff Lee was hurt in spring training and unable to start the season on time; free-agent signing Chone Figgins was a complete bust; Ken Griffey Jr. was brought back despite the fact rival scouts thought his days as a productive player had ended, and the problems related to Griffey Jr.'s decline eventually led to the demise of manager Don Wakamatsu; the back end of the Mariners' rotation was erratic. Even when the Mariners flipped Lee in a trade for prospects, getting more in return than what they gave up to get Lee, the acquisition of a prospect with a very dark criminal history led to late-season turmoil in the front office.

Felix Hernandez somehow seemed to improve over his Cy Young-caliber season in 2009, maturing as a pitcher -- and thankfully for the Mariners, he has made no noises (yet) about wanting to escape the team's dysfunction. Ichiro Suzuki is having a typical Ichiro season, but because of a lack of power and production in the middle of the Seattle lineup, Ichiro's many hits have gone to waste.

The firing of professional scouting director Carmen Fusco is being taken within the organization as a sign that GM Jack Zduriencik is on shaky ground. The Mariners might require a bounce-back season to prevent another round of change, and the problem is that Seattle appears to lack the kind of talent that can effect the necessary turnaround. The best hope for the 2011 Mariners might be that Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley establish themselves quickly in the big leagues and help Seattle develop a functional offense. Short of that, the forecast for next year is not good.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Hernandez proved once again he is among the top five starting pitchers in the game, his American League-leading 7.4 support neutral lineup-adjusted value above replacement (SNLVAR) figure much more indicative of his season than his 12-11 record. The Mariners showed good glove work as they are fourth in the AL in defensive efficiency, turning 70.4 percent of balls in play into outs.

What went wrong: The offense was awful and the Mariners are last in the majors with an average of 3.20 runs a game. Griffey Jr.'s second season in his second stint in Seattle ended badly as he failed to homer in 108 plate appearances, was caught napping in the clubhouse during a game, then abruptly retired. Manager Don Wakamatsu was fired a year after being hailed in his rookie season for changing the attitude in the clubhouse and on the field.

What won't happen again: The Mariners won't be rocking the baseball world with a big trade this upcoming winter as they did last December when they landed left-hander Cliff Lee from the Phillies. The Mariners' 85-77 record in 2009 was a fluke as they allowed more runs than they scored and this year's 55-91 mark is quite indicative that they are more than one star pitcher away from winning a pennant.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
The plan is key: With a plethora of holes, limited payroll space and a franchise pitcher in desperate need of not only run support but quality rotation mates, the Mariners appear as if they'll be in the market for a lot of offense and at least one starting pitcher. But it all depends on which path the club decides to take. If they choose to use 2011 to further develop catcher Adam Moore, outfielder Michael Saunders and first baseman Justin Smoak, while awaiting the arrival of prospects Dustin Ackley and right-hander Michael Pineda, GM Jack Zduriencik may seek the short-term stopgap, such as another year of slugger Russell Branyan or other similar veteran hitters. If the club chooses to stay on course -- an attempt to contend while keeping an eye toward building a long-term contention window -- names such as Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez or Lance Berkman may become options.

The starting rotation could use an experienced starter behind Hernandez, which might put Aaron Harang, who may have his option declined by the Cincinnati Reds, or Carl Pavano on the M's radar. It does not appear as if the club can afford to make Lee a competitive offer, however. Adding a veteran catcher such as Bengie Molina may not be out of the question, either, depending on cost and how much playing time the veteran would require.

Money, money, money: Unless the ownership group approves a significant payroll spike, Zduriencik may not have the flexibility to be active on the free-agent market, which likely means the club will be busy once again putting together trade proposals to land impact talent. If 2011 is to serve as somewhat of a developmental season, however, it will give the front office a chance to find answers at third base and designated hitter, and an opportunity to assess the futures of the rest of the roster.

Trading infielder Chone Figgins may be a top priority this winter, after the 32-year-old suffered a tough season at the plate and had a run-in with former skipper Don Wakamatsu. Shedding some of what is still owed on Figgins' contract -- $26 million with a vesting option that guarantees another $9 million -- could change the landscape of the franchise's offseason.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
Right-hander Daniel Cortes was seen as one of the better arms in the system when acquired from the Royals in the Yuniesky Betancourt deal last year, but inconsistency led to a 5.00-plus ERA as a starter. A massive, gangly power arm with complicated mechanics, Cortes' delivery would vary wildly from start to start, as would his velocity and command. A move to the bullpen late this season changed everything, as pitching from the stretch in short stints Cortes just let it fly, and the result was an unhittable fastball that got into the upper 90s. While he has his fair share of youthful indiscretions, they pale in comparison to Josh Lueke's situation, and with stuff being about equal, that alone puts him ahead on the depth charts for the Mariners' 2011 relief staff.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward an immediate 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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First up: the Chicago Cubs. It's time to kiss 'em goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
Although the Cubs were blessed with a relatively easy schedule at the season's outset, they collapsed right at the start -- opening 15-22 -- and never recovered. Derrek Lee struggled early, and Aramis Ramirez batted .152 in April and .173 in May. Meanwhile, the Cubs' bullpen problems were so acute that then-manager Lou Piniella felt compelled to shift Carlos Zambrano into a relief role, and that seemed to feed into the explosion that Big Z had in the middle of the season. Piniella announced his intention to retire and then stepped away in August, and the Cubs -- just a couple of seasons removed from 2008, when they dominated the National League -- were left to consider a major overhaul.

There's good news, though: Starlin Castro has competed for a batting title and established himself as a big league shortstop even before he can drink legally. Carlos Silva stunned the baseball world with his strong first half after being dumped by the Seattle Mariners, and Carlos Marmol averaged almost two strikeouts per inning in his first full year as the Cubs' closer.

GM Jim Hendry must identify a new manager, and the Cubs must determine whether Zambrano's late-season surge is reason enough to expect that his anger management has helped him turn a corner. The Cubs need a first baseman to replace Lee, who was traded in August, and a starting pitcher to step into left-hander Ted Lilly's spot. They will wait to hear whether Ramirez picks up his $14.6 million option for 2011; given the need to get out from under too many crippling contracts (Alfonso Soriano's and Zambrano's are two others), the Cubs probably would be thrilled if Ramirez walked away. -- Buster Olney


[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Castro was great; another rookie, outfielder Tyler Colvin, became a power source. Catcher Geovany Soto bounced back to his rookie of the year form of 2008 after an awful sophomore season. Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome finally lived up to the hype in his third season after coming over from Japan and became a source of on-base percentage. Marlon Byrd proved to be a good free-agent signing; he was selected to play in the All-Star Game.

What went wrong: After starting the season with hopes of contending for the NL Central title, their poor start really hurt them. The Cubs eventually went into retooling mode as they traded Lilly, Lee and infielders Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot.

What won't happen again: The Cubs won't be as reliant on veterans as they have been in recent years. Although Hendry will have a hard time moving the big contracts of Zambrano and Soriano this winter, the Cubs will look to get younger and likely will have new blood on the bench: Hall of Famer and Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg is the heavy favorite to replace Piniella after being named manager of the year in the Pacific Coast League with Triple-A Iowa.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
The rumblings: Some believe Ramirez may do the club a favor and decline the $14.6 million player option he holds for 2011, but don't count on that happening. As mentioned above, Zambrano has pitched to his contract lately, and that leaves the Cubs with mixed feelings: If he's pitching well sans the shenanigans, Z is a front-line starter; he's also more attractive trade bait. The bet within the rumor mill is he'll be back; that would provide another answer in a rotation that isn't likely to be buttressed with a big signing. More likely: Look for Jeff Samardzija to get another shot.

A move that could work: One of the more quizzical moves of the trade deadline wasn't a move at all. Adam Dunn was rumored to be traded to numerous places -- and was very closely linked with the Chicago White Sox -- but ultimately, the Nats decided to hold on to their Bunyanesque slugger. Good for the Cubs. After parting ways with Lee, if the Cubs are willing to give Dunn a four-year deal -- and he would have signed with Washington if it had offered that -- they have a great shot to get him. Dunn still wants to play in the field, so an NL team without the option to use him as a designated hitter would fit, and he's made no secret about his affection for playing in Chicago.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
The Cubs' system, known more for its depth than star power, has little impact talent to offer the 2011 squad. That said, 2009 first-round pick Brett Jackson could patrol the Wrigley Field outfield at some point during the season. Although he slowed down a bit at Double-A after a blistering first half in the high-A Florida State League, Jackson's power/speed package -- along with good defense -- should make a difference. Strikeouts will preclude a high average, though.

Now, it's time to kiss the Baltimore Orioles goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
Early this season, the Orioles played four consecutive series against the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox; as a result, they were buried quickly and headed to their 13th straight losing season.

As center fielder Adam Jones says, though, the O's play and outlook shifted after Buck Showalter was hired as manager, with the players paying closer attention to details. Baltimore has played well, and Showalter says he has been impressed with the development of catcher Matt Wieters, the intensity of Nick Markakis and the play of others. Showalter also believes that the competitiveness of Brian Matusz could rub off on Baltimore's other pitchers. The Orioles have won 23 of their first 38 games under Showalter, and it's evident that he will have a major impact on the organization as plans are made.

The developments of Matusz and others have given the Orioles a modest beachhead in their effort to overrun the AL East monsters, but they still lack enough pitching and position prospects in the eyes of rival evaluators. "They just don't have a lot of depth," one AL evaluator said. "When you look at the Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees, it's like they have talent coming in waves. The Orioles aren't close to having that." The Orioles still have a gaping organizational hole at shortstop, which they hope they can fill with Manny Machado, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft.

What went right: Guys such as Jones, Wieters, Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen -- key youngsters who all appeared to be going backward this season -- have performed well since Showalter arrived, providing optimism going into next year. The Orioles' defense is benefiting from the return of Brian Roberts and the departure of Miguel Tejada; the team's batting average on balls in play has improved from .313 before to .284 since.

What went wrong: The Orioles came out of the gate 2-16; it's nearly impossible to start that way in the AL East and have any drama left in the season aside from the eventual firing of your manager. They were 15-39 when manager Dave Trembley got the ax in early June. Roberts missed virtually the entire first half thanks to an abdominal strain and a herniated disc.

What won't happen again: Recent Orioles squads have spent long stretches playing as though they had essentially quit on first-time major league managers such as Lee Mazzilli, Sam Perlozzo and Trembley once it became clear they wouldn't be the ones to change the culture of losing. Showalter has had enough success at the big league level and commands enough respect that he'll be able to give this team the necessary kick in the pants should it begin to drift, with enough support from management to back him up. He has more young talent at his disposal than any of those skippers had and hopefully should have fewer last-legs veterans hanging around to play out the string.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Possible targets: Although the Orioles say they've gotten what they wanted from Kevin Millwood, the league-leading total of earned runs he's given up at this writing aren't what they're referring to. No, that's his clubhouse presence; he's a guide for the young core. Look for GM Andy McPhail to take another shot at an innings-eater. One interesting option is Javier Vazquez, but he may look for an escape from the AL East. However, other names -- such as Vicente Padilla, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Doug Davis, Jake Westbrook or Rodrigo Lopez -- could be options.

Keeper league: Given its home park, Camden Yards, Baltimore's scoring the third-fewest runs in baseball is startling. But don't expect the O's to start courting free-agent bats before they try to keep around their own. Leading homer man Luke Scott will be due a raise from the half-million dollars he earned this year, but the club might be able to get him cheaper than any other 30-homer bat. Same story with Ty Wigginton, who has tailed off but still has good pop for the $3.5 million he pocketed this season. The big question is whether the Orioles will try to ink Jones to a longer deal, perhaps in the four-year range. The bet here is they will.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
Known for their young pitching, the Orioles have more coming. Some scouts feel that left-hander Zach Britton could be the best of the bunch. A third-round pick in 2006 out of a Texas high school, the 22-year-old added a bit of velocity this year and now has the best sinker in the minor leagues. He's generally regarded as a No. 3 starter when he gets to Camden Yards, but his absolute ceiling could be a left-handed version of Brandon Webb.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
After many years of failure, many years of struggle and another 100-loss season, you can understand why Pirates fans might be skeptical about the plan in place.

But rival evaluators believe that the Pittsburgh organization is in a better place than it was a few years ago. The Pirates have more high-ceiling talent from Pedro Alvarez to Jameson Taillon, their top pick in June's draft. However, they have made little progress in putting together enough high-end pitching to compete for the NL Central title any time soon -- although the deal for James McDonald appears as if it can pay off.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Most of the Pirates' positives did not show up in the standings, but this was a fruitful year for the franchise nonetheless. Chris Snyder and McDonald came over in trades for spare parts; McDonald gives the Pirates a much-needed pitcher who has plus stuff and can miss bats. Prospects Alvarez and Jose Tabata, along with Neil Walker, all have impressed. This is said many years, but the Pirates have hope to do something -- maybe not win the NL Central, but be better -- in 2011.

What went wrong: The Opening Day lineup. Second baseman Akinori Iwamura hit .182/.292/.267 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) before being demoted, then released. Andy LaRoche, in what may have been his last shot at becoming a major league regular, has hit .208/.270/.280 and lost his third baseman's job to Alvarez in June. Jeff Clement, who was picked up in a trade last summer, failed as the starting first baseman and was replaced by Garrett Jones, who didn't have the best of years either; Jones spent most of 2010 coming off his out-of-nowhere 2009 success and now sits at just .247/.307/.415, well below the offensive requirements for any of his possible positions. None of the Jeff Karstens, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf group is a talented-enough pitcher to overcome the horrendous defensive play behind him, but the four have combined for 521.2 innings anyway.

What won't happen again: Thanks to Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata and Walker, the Pirates will start 2011 with a lineup that isn't laughable -- which isn't something you could say about the 2010 one. Squint a little bit, and you can see the beginnings of their turn toward putting a quality product on the field. It's almost impossible for Charlie Morton to be this terrible again, especially considering his peripherals and that he missed time with injury. A full season of McDonald will be more valuable than people realize. If Alvarez shifts to first base and the Pirates are able to find defensive-minded contributors for shortstop and third base, they would greatly help a pitch-to-contact staff.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Possible targets: GM Neal Huntington gained some credibility with the trade that brought in McDonald from the Dodgers for Octavio Dotel. If the Pirates make any major moves between now and Opening Day 2011, it likely will be for more pitching. They could go for a middle-tier free agent such as Kevin Millwood to eat up innings. They might seek a bargain with a Brad Penny for Erik Bedard, whose value is down thanks to injury. The word is that the Pirates no longer view Jones as an everyday player, so they will look for a right-handed first baseman or a right fielder. Austin Kearns, unlikely to return to the Yankees, could be a fit.

Keeper league: The Pirates would love to upgrade a pitching staff that is last in the majors with a 5.08 ERA, but what do they have to sell? The Bucs have been trying Ryan Doumit in right field for a few months and may showcase him as possible trade bait. Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek will compete for the closer's job in spring training, and the loser of the race could be shopped as well. Small-market teams such as the Bucs will be under increased scrutiny because of the media reports that they are pocketing revenue-sharing cash. Even then, the Pirates learned a lesson in the Iwamura deal and will continue to be fiscally cautious.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
The Pirates are finally seeing some of their young talent in the big leagues, so is anyone left on the farm?

The answer is yes, but it's mostly players who are long-term bets as opposed to quick fixes. As desperate as the Pirates are for pitching, they do hope that right-hander Bryan Morris can continue to build on his 2010 breakout campaign. A first-round pick by the Dodgers in 2006 who came over in the complicated Jason Bay-Manny Ramirez three-way deal with the Boston Red Sox, Morris found his command this year, allowing his above-average velocity and impressive curveball to play up, as he struck out 124 batters in 133 2/3 innings while walking just 38. The Pirates' truly high-ceiling arms are all teenagers and eons away, but Morris could provide a small rotation upgrade.

Now, it's time to kiss the Kansas City Royals goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
Just about everything went wrong for the Royals this year. Their offense was stagnant for most of the season, as expected, and Kansas City's pitching never really materialized at the level that the Royals needed to be relevant; the Royals went into play on Thursday as one of only two teams in the majors with an ERA over 5.00. Manager Trey Hillman was fired and Jose Guillen -- the team's most expensive player -- was designated for assignment before being dumped in a trade. Even Zack Greinke -- who seemed to rise about Kansas City's troubles in 2009 to single-handedly lift the team -- seemed frustrated at times, speaking out loud about his uncertainty about whether he will be around if and when the Royals are contenders again.

In positive news, Joakim Soria capitalized on the relatively few opportunities he had to finish games and established himself as arguably the best AL closer not named Mariano Rivera. Soria has averaged more than a strikeout per inning this year, and opponents have posted a .577 OPS against him this year. And Wilson Betemit, a 28-year-old who has long been seen as a promising hitter, has had an excellent season for the Royals, with an on-base percentage close to .400.

Like the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Royals have gaping holes in their roster, needing long-term solutions at catcher, both middle infield spots, third base, three places in their rotation, and some middle relievers. But unlike the Pirates, the Royals appear to have a tremendous wave of talent almost ready to arrive, like third baseman Mike Moustakas and first baseman Eric Hosmer. "They're loaded," said one GM, who compared the high level of talent in the Royals' system to what the Tampa Bay Rays had in 2005 and 2006.

A major question for the Royals, however, is whether this talent will begin to blossom in the big leagues before -- or after -- the team is compelled to consider taking offers for Greinke.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Billy Butler, the current position player most likely to contribute to the next winning Royals team, continued to improve his approach at the plate. The right-handed designated hitter increased both his batting average and walk rate while sharply reducing his strikeout rate. Although his power numbers dipped slightly, Butler's superior discipline at the plate in 2010 should pay big dividends in the future.

What went wrong: The 2010 Royals were designed to hit singles, and singles just don't win ballgames. The team's offense has ranked third in batting average (.274) in the AL, but just 10th in runs scored. Meanwhile, almost every starting pitcher on the team took a step backward from 2009. Greinke lost the ability to use his breaking ball as an out pitch, Luke Hochevar landed on the disabled list, Brian Bannister has allowed more earned runs than he recorded strikeouts, and Kyle Davies carried over his grim 2009 performance into 2010.

What won't happen again: It's unlikely that future squads will be staffed by a group of players that so uniformly resemble reheated leftovers. With the departures of Guillen, Scott Podsednik and Alberto Callaspo, the team is poised to enter 2011 with a younger profile and a lighter payroll.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Possible targets: Greinke knew exactly what he was doing in August when he expressed his doubts about the speed of the Royals' youth-based rebuilding plan. The franchise pitcher is under contract only through 2012 and wants some improvement right away. The Royals need to make some sort of splash to keep Greinke and the fan base happy, and it can't hurt to add some offensive pop to a lineup that ranks 27th in home runs. Why not overpay a little for Adam Dunn and make him a full-time DH? The Royals were very interested in outfielder Jeff Francoeur before he landed in Texas, and one late-season report speculates that he is headed to Kansas City in 2011 -- the Dayton Moore connection lives on. Catcher Jason Kendall won't be back until early next season, so a free-agent signing such as Bengie Molina could be a stopgap measure.

Keeper league: The Royals were shopping up-and-coming outfielder David DeJesus before his season-ending injury in July, but it is more likely they will pick up his option at the bargain price of $6 million. The Royals are optimistic about their pitching further down the system, but Greinke could use some help now, particularly if the Royals decide not to tender Davies and/or Bannister. Hochevar showed some improvement this season and figures to stick around in 2010. Look for the Royals to again look for a diamond-in-the-rough signing, a strategy that worked well last offseason with Podsednik, who hit over .300 before being shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
No system has more impact-level prospects than the Royals, but the one most likely to make some big league noise in 2011 is third baseman Mike Moustakas. The second overall pick in the 2007 draft put it all together this year, tying for the minor league lead with 36 home runs while batting .322/.369/.630 across Double- and Triple-A. No player in the minor leagues can match his bat speed, and while some are concerned with his free-swinging ways, he's such a good hitter that it's not going to matter. One scout needed just three words to put it succinctly: "Kid's gonna mash."

Now, it's time to kiss the Houston Astros goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
The Astros opened the year by losing their first eight games, and the team's offense completely disappeared in the first four months of the season, as Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee struggled. By the middle of June, Houston was 19 games under .500, and the team's two signature stars, Berkman and Roy Oswalt, began indicating they were ready to leave the organization. Only two teams scored fewer runs than the Astros in the first half, and the Astros tied for dead last in home runs.

Since the trades of Oswalt and Berkman, though, Houston has played dramatically better. The organization committed to rebuilding around young players like Chris Johnson, and rival scouts have been greatly impressed with the energy level and improvement of the team under first-year manager Brad Mills. Astros GM Ed Wade believes the strong finish could carry over into 2011 because the same pitching staff that has fueled this turnaround will return virtually intact.

Realistically, though, Houston needs to find long-term solutions at second base and shortstop, and the Astros cannot follow up on their second-half success unless Lee can produce much better in the first half of next season. But with Berkman and Oswalt off the Houston payroll, the Astros are in a much more flexible position to address any needs. For years, advisors to Drayton McLane had told him that the club was in need of an overhaul, and for the first time, he listened -- and the Astros already seem to be on the rise again.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Since June 1, Houston's actually the second-best team in the NL Central -- in that span it's only one game off the pace of the Cincinnati Reds. Hunter Pence recovered from a miserable start and Johnson became a young star at 3B after Pedro Feliz faltered. It was the pitching that turned the Astros around, as the hurlers dropped just over a run per game (from 5.12 to 4.09) from June on. Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris (a 2.24 ERA and a 3.90 ERA from July to present, respectively) have been the most improved, J.A. Happ has been a solid addition, and Brett Myers has been solid throughout. They have also had good luck, playing about nine games above their projected record.

What went wrong: As noted above, they spent the first two months of their season on pace to lose 108 games. Even in the generally weak NL Central, that's not good. Younger players Tommy Manzella, Justin Towles and Jason Castro crashed on takeoff. The failure of the latter pair meant that Astros backstops have hit .222/.273/.315 this year.

What won't happen again: The tradable vets are gone, so there will be no more restocking Houston's pantry with goods from other clubs' larders. Assuming that Ed Wade cannot make a huge splash in what will be a fairly thin free-agent market, further rebuilding efforts will have to come from within, and there's just not enough talent on hand to make it work. If its good luck fades, Houston's 2011 will more closely resemble the first two months of 2010 than the last four.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
Ready to take off: McLane had traditionally been slow to cut the cord with franchise cornerstones, but the trades of Berkman and Oswalt over the summer clearly signaled a change of course. Mills deserves some credit for what has become a strong finish, but that goodwill will evaporate quickly if the Stros have another slow start. Look for the Astros to try to avoid the question mark in the bullpen by giving Matt Lindstrom every chance to win the closer's job next spring.

Houston could use some extra offensive pop at shortstop and second base, so how about a play for Mark Ellis or Jose Lopez if their current teams pass on 2011 contract options? Berkman was hoping he could return to the Astros next season after a few months in New York, but that is looking unlikely due to the commitment to Brett Wallace.

Dollar signs: Yes, we know that Lee will take home $19 million next season. But there is some wiggle room financially now that the Astros have parted ways not only with Oswalt and Berkman, but Kaz Matsui and Feliz as well. GM Ed Wade will have some extra money to spend, but a built-in excuse will be a notable attendance decline of 8.4 percent from last season.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
Right-hander Jordan Lyles doesn't turn 20 until October, but he already has a year of pitching at the upper levels under his belt, and will likely hit the big leagues before he can legally have a glass of champagne to celebrate. A supplemental first-round selection in 2008, Lyles has the maturity and command of a veteran, and while that has allowed him to move quickly there is still much debate as to whether that means a star-level ceiling. His fastball is just a tick above average in terms of velocity, and his curveball should be good enough to keep hitters off balance in the majors. His rapid rise has been impressive. Still, most scouts think he's a good middle-rotation starter as opposed to an All-Star -- but even pitchers like that are worth eight figures annually on the open market.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-marinersSeattle Mariners goodbye.
[h3]The overview [/h3]
The fragile equation that had served the Mariners so well in 2009 -- strong defense and pitching making up for the lack of consistent offense -- fell apart this year, and Seattle went on a downward spiral in the standings. Cliff Lee was hurt in spring training and unable to start the season on time; free-agent signing Chone Figgins was a complete bust; Ken Griffey Jr. was brought back despite the fact rival scouts thought his days as a productive player had ended, and the problems related to Griffey Jr.'s decline eventually led to the demise of manager Don Wakamatsu; the back end of the Mariners' rotation was erratic. Even when the Mariners flipped Lee in a trade for prospects, getting more in return than what they gave up to get Lee, the acquisition of a prospect with a very dark criminal history led to late-season turmoil in the front office.

Felix Hernandez somehow seemed to improve over his Cy Young-caliber season in 2009, maturing as a pitcher -- and thankfully for the Mariners, he has made no noises (yet) about wanting to escape the team's dysfunction. Ichiro Suzuki is having a typical Ichiro season, but because of a lack of power and production in the middle of the Seattle lineup, Ichiro's many hits have gone to waste.

The firing of professional scouting director Carmen Fusco is being taken within the organization as a sign that GM Jack Zduriencik is on shaky ground. The Mariners might require a bounce-back season to prevent another round of change, and the problem is that Seattle appears to lack the kind of talent that can effect the necessary turnaround. The best hope for the 2011 Mariners might be that Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley establish themselves quickly in the big leagues and help Seattle develop a functional offense. Short of that, the forecast for next year is not good.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take [/h3]
What went right: Hernandez proved once again he is among the top five starting pitchers in the game, his American League-leading 7.4 support neutral lineup-adjusted value above replacement (SNLVAR) figure much more indicative of his season than his 12-11 record. The Mariners showed good glove work as they are fourth in the AL in defensive efficiency, turning 70.4 percent of balls in play into outs.

What went wrong: The offense was awful and the Mariners are last in the majors with an average of 3.20 runs a game. Griffey Jr.'s second season in his second stint in Seattle ended badly as he failed to homer in 108 plate appearances, was caught napping in the clubhouse during a game, then abruptly retired. Manager Don Wakamatsu was fired a year after being hailed in his rookie season for changing the attitude in the clubhouse and on the field.

What won't happen again: The Mariners won't be rocking the baseball world with a big trade this upcoming winter as they did last December when they landed left-hander Cliff Lee from the Phillies. The Mariners' 85-77 record in 2009 was a fluke as they allowed more runs than they scored and this year's 55-91 mark is quite indicative that they are more than one star pitcher away from winning a pennant.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options [/h3]
The plan is key: With a plethora of holes, limited payroll space and a franchise pitcher in desperate need of not only run support but quality rotation mates, the Mariners appear as if they'll be in the market for a lot of offense and at least one starting pitcher. But it all depends on which path the club decides to take. If they choose to use 2011 to further develop catcher Adam Moore, outfielder Michael Saunders and first baseman Justin Smoak, while awaiting the arrival of prospects Dustin Ackley and right-hander Michael Pineda, GM Jack Zduriencik may seek the short-term stopgap, such as another year of slugger Russell Branyan or other similar veteran hitters. If the club chooses to stay on course -- an attempt to contend while keeping an eye toward building a long-term contention window -- names such as Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez or Lance Berkman may become options.

The starting rotation could use an experienced starter behind Hernandez, which might put Aaron Harang, who may have his option declined by the Cincinnati Reds, or Carl Pavano on the M's radar. It does not appear as if the club can afford to make Lee a competitive offer, however. Adding a veteran catcher such as Bengie Molina may not be out of the question, either, depending on cost and how much playing time the veteran would require.

Money, money, money: Unless the ownership group approves a significant payroll spike, Zduriencik may not have the flexibility to be active on the free-agent market, which likely means the club will be busy once again putting together trade proposals to land impact talent. If 2011 is to serve as somewhat of a developmental season, however, it will give the front office a chance to find answers at third base and designated hitter, and an opportunity to assess the futures of the rest of the roster.

Trading infielder Chone Figgins may be a top priority this winter, after the 32-year-old suffered a tough season at the plate and had a run-in with former skipper Don Wakamatsu. Shedding some of what is still owed on Figgins' contract -- $26 million with a vesting option that guarantees another $9 million -- could change the landscape of the franchise's offseason.
[h3]Organizational future [/h3]
Right-hander Daniel Cortes was seen as one of the better arms in the system when acquired from the Royals in the Yuniesky Betancourt deal last year, but inconsistency led to a 5.00-plus ERA as a starter. A massive, gangly power arm with complicated mechanics, Cortes' delivery would vary wildly from start to start, as would his velocity and command. A move to the bullpen late this season changed everything, as pitching from the stretch in short stints Cortes just let it fly, and the result was an unhittable fastball that got into the upper 90s. While he has his fair share of youthful indiscretions, they pale in comparison to Josh Lueke's situation, and with stuff being about equal, that alone puts him ahead on the depth charts for the Mariners' 2011 relief staff.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward an immediate 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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[h3]The overview[/h3]

Before Stephen Strasburg blew out his elbow and needed reconstructive surgery he'd thrown a total of 68 innings in the majors -- and the rest of the Nationals' starters have struggled in more than 700 innings. Going into play Saturday, the Nationals' rotation ranked 26th in ERA, an inefficiency that has placed a heavy burden on the Washington bullpen all year.

The Nats have also had problems getting consistent production out of the top two spots in their lineup: Their leadoff hitters rank 28th in OPS, while their No. 2 hitters are ranked 20th. Washington has gotten a lot of attention for drafting elite talent in recent years -- Strasburg, Drew Storen, Bryce Harper -- but remains a team with very little depth.

Ryan Zimmerman, however, continues to be one of the most unheralded stars in the big leagues, piling up power numbers, on-base percentage and web gems. And while Ian Desmond has made a lot of errors, he continues to improve, hitting over .300 in the second half of the season. Jordan Zimmermann returned to the rotation after missing a year because of an elbow reconstruction, and in the time that Strasburg pitched, he demonstrated that he could also be as good as advertised.

It appears that the Nationals will lose Adam Dunn -- who is responsible for more than a quarter of the Washington home runs this year -- to free agency, which will leave a gaping hole in the middle of the lineup. Somehow, the Nationals must find a credible hitter to bat behind Zimmerman, or else he'll become an NL version of Miguel Cabrera, a great hitter who is constantly pitched around. Jordan Zimmermann's development is crucial for the Nationals, who don't appear to have much in the way of high-impact pitching, now that Strasburg is going to miss most or all of 2011.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut on June 8 against the Pittsburgh Pirates and struck out 14 batters in seven innings on his way to recording 92 strikeouts in 68 innings over 12 starts. The day before Strasburg's debut, the Nationals added another mega-talent by selecting 17-year-old switch-hitting outfielder Bryce Harper with the first overall pick in the amateur draft. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman continued his march toward superstardom, Adam Dunn had a big season in the home run and walk departments and rookie shortstop Ian Desmond showed promise despite a high error total.

What went wrong: Strasburg's elbow blew out in an Aug. 21 start at Philadelphia, and he underwent Tommy John reconstructive surgery. He likely won't pitch in the major leagues again until the beginning of the 2012 season. The rotation was a mess beyond veteran workhorse Livan Hernandez. And, despite banner years by Zimmerman and Dunn, the Nats struggled to mount a consistent offensive attack, ranking 13th in the National League in runs scored.

What won't happen again: No Nationals players will come close to generating the hype of Strasburg -- the days he started home games were called "Strasmas" in Washington -- unless Harper makes a meteoric rise through the farm system.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The Strasburg effect: With so much of their future tied to the development of Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals must spend the winter telling their fans, as well as any possible free-agent signings, that a legitimate timetable for playoff contention remains in place. First of all, the Nats must replace Strasburg's innings, and possible solutions include Cuban defector Yuniesky Maya, Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang (remember him?). They could bring back Livan Hernandez, but that appears less likely after he faded in the second half. Another possible option could be making a pitch for Javier Vazquez, who the Yankees will not re-sign. Vazquez was at his best while pitching for the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, and he becomes more attractive should he slip to Type B free agency. Even before Strasburg went down, GM Mike Rizzo was telling the media that the club's biggest need was starting pitching.

Defense wins championships: The Nats never pulled the trigger on a deal for Adam Dunn at the deadline and now appear poised to let the slugging first baseman walk after the season. It is believed that Rizzo is no longer willing to put up with Dunn's defensive deficiencies, even if he puts up another 40-home run season. Expect the Nats to make a strong pitch for free-agent-to-be Carlos Pena, who is a far better defensive first baseman. Washington entered the weekend with 77 unearned runs allowed, second highest in the majors, and a chunk of that is tied to Dunn's matador defense. The Nats will also demand better glove work from Ian Desmond, who leads all major league shortstops in errors, and could search for a midlevel free agent in right field if they decide that neither Roger Bernadina nor Michael Morse are long-term solutions.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Nationals fans are already getting a taste of what Danny Espinosa can do, as his September showing in the big leagues has given him a leg up as next year's starting second baseman. The third-round pick is not a jaw-dropping athlete, yet he's combined for 40 home runs and 54 stolen bases in his first two full seasons in the minors, while impressing scouts with his max-effort style of play and mature baseball instincts. A lack of plate discipline has a chance to hinder his progress, but his overall skill set is rarely found in a middle infielder.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-bluejaysToronto Blue Jays goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]

For the first time in a decade, the Blue Jays did not have Roy Halladay anchoring their staff, and as the summer went along and Toronto seemed to lack only that one lead starter, some scouts asked an open-ended question: Would the Blue Jays have been better off keeping Halladay in 2010, giving the team a better chance to win? Toronto might have lacked the necessary depth to keep up the American League East powers, especially in light of the down years for Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, whose batting averages hovered just over .200. But their overall performance this season made that question legitimate.

The young pitching that was in place when Alex Anthopoulos took over as general manager -- such as Ricky Romero -- has continued to blossom, and the first-year GM augmented the staff as well. Brandon Morrow, acquired from Seattle for reliever Brandon League, made some mechanical adjustments and has evolved into one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the AL. And Jose Bautista, a journeyman who had bounced from team to team for years, has had a breakout season, shattering the team's single-season record for home runs. In addition, Vernon Wells has improved in recent seasons, again becoming a credible source of production in the middle of the Toronto lineup, which will finish the year with more homers than any other team in the majors.

Ultimately, to compete, the Jays must continue to see improvement and maturation from the likes of Romero, Morrow and Kyle Drabek as well as from new shortstop Yunel Escobar, who seemed to be energized by his trade to Toronto. The Blue Jays also will have to make a tough call on Bautista: Should they trade him now to take advantage of his sky-high trade value, or should they hang onto him for 2011, before he becomes a free agent? They're a team on the rise.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: After a 75-win disappointment in 2009 led to a long-anticipated regime change in the front office, new GM Anthopoulos managed the neat trick of expanding the Blue Jays' talent base while also delivering a better ballclub, sending manager Cito Gaston back to franchise Valhalla with possibly another winning season. Many of Anthopoulos' canny trade pickups figure to deliver dividends into the future, especially Morrow and Drabek in the rotation, as noted above. A number of veterans delivered useful seasons, especially center fielder Wells, shortstop Alex Gonzalez (before he was dealt for Escobar), closer Kevin Gregg and All-Star catcher John Buck. The rotation received the benefit of Romero proving that his 2009 wasn't a mirage, Brett Cecil getting established and the successful comeback of Shaun Marcum.

What went wrong: Single-season homer records are what the Blue Jays get to play for because they're stuck being baseball's best fourth-place team. Bouncing around .500 in the American League East is no mean feat. Adjust for their schedule, and you'd have a team that ranks sixth in the league in wins and a contender in either the Central or West.

Beyond the geography-as-destiny problem, top prospect Travis Snider didn't blossom, and Lind didn't reward the club for the decision to give him an expensive, multiyear, arbitration-avoiding extension. Hill learned that regression is a function of reality, dropping from his 2009 breakout to this season's struggle to get his on-base percentage over .280 or his batting average above the Mendoza Line.

What won't happen again: You won't see another 50-homer season from Bautista, because he's almost doubled his previous best ratio of homers per fly ball. You can't call his 2010 a comeback campaign: He's never been this good before, not unless Bautista is the latter-day incarnation of Hank Sauer, a hitter who goes from anonymity to slugging stardom in his 30s. However, even reverting to career norms and an isolated power mark between .160-.180 make Bautista a useful source of power at whichever corner the Blue Jays put him. Toronto fans also should take solace in that Hill should bounce back from his terrible season. His power and walk rates have stayed consistent, suggesting some unusually poor luck on the balls he's put into play.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Decisions, decisions: The Blue Jays enter the winter with decisions to make on closer Gregg and the rest of their bullpen. The club holds a dual option on the right-hander that allows them to retain his services for 2011 or for each of the next two seasons at reasonable salaries. Gregg could have value on the trade market, too, but the club needs to bring a viable relief corps north with it next spring if it wishes to contend in the AL East. Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are slated to hit free agency. Will either be offered arbitration? Shawn Camp and Casey Janssen could cost the club dearly as arbitration-eligibles, potentially restricting how active the club can be on the free-agent market, where veterans at catcher and infielder could be on the to-do list.

Bautista's bounty: He's well on his way to hitting 50-plus home runs, so Bautista's status with the club will be a hot topic this winter. The slugger is making $2.4 million this season and will be arbitration-eligible one final time before free agency comes. He could break the bank after his monster season, perhaps warranting as much as an eight-figure salary for 2011, although more likely just south of that. Toronto could try to lock him up with some guaranteed money for three or four years, which could be attractive to the player and the club, or he could be the subject of trade rumors during the offseason. But, as Rumor Central has noted all summer, his value isn't exactly easy to gauge because it took him until age 29 to turn his plus raw power into something more than a platoon bat.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Between J.P. Arencibia's two-home run debut and Drabek's start again the Orioles last week, Blue Jays fans are already getting a glimpse of a possible All-Star battery in the future, and that future should begin in 2011. With Buck likely to depart for the greener pastures of free agency, Arencibia is ready to step in at catcher after pounding out 32 home runs in just 412 Triple-A at-bats. Las Vegas is a launching pad to be sure, but in any environment, Arencibia's power is well above average for a backstop. He also has the athleticism to turn into a good defender, although there's still work to be done in that department. As for Drabek, many scouts feel he has been big league-ready for most of the year, and he could break camp next spring toward the front of the Blue Jays' rotation.

Now, it's time to kiss the Arizona Diamondbacks goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Arizona gambled on its rotation strength coming into the season, trading for veteran Edwin Jackson and prospect Ian Kennedy and picking up the 2010 option on former Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb. But Webb never regained the arm strength he'd had in the past and didn't throw an inning, and the Diamondbacks' bullpen follies were historically bad in the first half of the year. General manager Josh Byrnes and manager A.J. Hinch were fired in a dramatic shift; Byrnes still had years remaining on his contract.

There is good news, though. In an effort to downsize their payroll and start a rebuilding process that will continue into next year, the Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren and Jackson, and the early returns on the players acquired in those deals have been good -- most notably from Daniel Hudson. Arizona appears to have a decent rotation going forward, with Hudson, Barry Enright, Kennedy and Joe Saunders forming a backbone for the pitching staff. Center fielder Chris Young and second baseman Kelly Johnson had excellent comeback seasons.

The Diamondbacks are expected to hire Kevin Towers or interim GM Jerry DiPoto to take over the team's baseball operations in the hours ahead, and the first order of business is to rebuild a disastrous bullpen. The expectation within the industry is that Arizona will aggressively pursue an established closer such as Rafael Soriano during the offseason. In another philosophical shift, Arizona probably will look to trade one or two regulars from its lineup, such as Mark Reynolds, in an effort to change the team's offense; the Diamondbacks are on the verge of setting a single-season team record for strikeouts.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Young finally put together a season in which he was both patient and powerful, hitting .261/.341/.457 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 27 stolen bases. Johnson, an offseason acquisition, is the club's best hitter. Although Miguel Montero missed games thanks to injury, his time behind the plate has showed the Diamondbacks won't miss Chris Snyder, who was traded to the Pirates. Hudson, who was acquired for Jackson at the trade deadline, has been excellent in the desert with a 1.65 ERA (and 3.10 skill-interactive ERA) in 71 innings while whiffing more than eight batters per nine innings pitched.

What went wrong: Justin Upton failed to follow up on his breakout 2009 campaign and put up a very average season for a right fielder. Reynolds showed everyone that his 2009 was a fluke as he has reverted to his low-batting average, high-strikeout seasons of the past by hitting .204/.323/.448. The bullpen failed on such a grand scale that it merits its own section.

What won't happen again: It is almost out of the question for the Diamondbacks' bullpen to be as terrible in 2011 as it has been in 2010. In terms of the Baseball Prospectus metric expected wins above replacement level (WXRL), the Diamondbacks have the worst bullpen of any team since the 1999 Kansas City Royals, which is the worst bullpen since 1954. Essentially, the 2010 D-backs have the third-worst bullpen in the past five decades. Just a replacement-level effort in 2011 would increase the Diamondbacks' win total in the same way that adding Mariano Rivera would. It may not be good next season, but it's nigh impossible that it will be as horrendous.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
On rotation: It's unknown what'll happen with Webb, who will become a free agent at season's end after missing all but one start since the end of the 2008 campaign. But the starting rotation has three young arms who could earn jobs during spring training in Kennedy, Enright, Hudson and left-hander Saunders. If Webb returns, it may be as an audition to better position himself for the free-agent market after a healthy season, so the general manager, whoever that may be, may have to check out the market for a veteran starter or two. A middle-market arm such as Jeremy Bonderman or Ted Lilly might make sense, as might Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood or Jake Westbrook. The D-backs have holes in their bullpen, too, but it appears as if the club may go the inexpensive route for the time being.

Trade bait: With Arizona at least a few years from contention, it can afford to send out an established player or two to acquire more help for the future. To add more proven talent, the Diamondbacks may have to part with a proven player or two and possibly some of their youth. Shortstop Stephen Drew could be the shiny asset who nets the club the kind of package it needs to fill multiple holes. If Drew is placed on the trade market, the first club in line might be the Boston Red Sox, even though Marco Scutaro is under contract through 2012. Drew will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter and could cost the club upwards of $6 million after making $3.4 million in 2010.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After failing in the big leagues at the end of last year, has first baseman Brandon Allen figured some things out? Although he's unlikely to ever hit for a high average, the wide-bodied first baseman stepped up both his power and patience in 2010, slugging 25 home runs and drawing 83 walks in just 107 games for Triple-A Reno as part of a .261/.405/.528 showing. If the Diamondbacks decline Adam LaRoche's mutual option ($7.5 million with a $1.5 million buyout), the first-base job is Allen's.

Now, it's time to kiss the Detroit Tigers goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Tigers managed to hang in the AL Central race before being blindsided by a series of injuries to Magglio Ordonez, Joel Zumaya and Carlos Guillen, and they never recovered. The Tigers went into the second half 10 games over .500, at 48-38, but by Aug. 13 they were five games under .500. Miguel Cabrera may have been the front-runner for the MVP at the All-Star break, but the injuries thinned out the Detroit lineup and allowed rival teams to pitch around the slugger constantly; by season's end, he'll probably have accumulated close to three dozen intentional walks, and close to 100 walks overall.

Cabrera arrived in spring training looking like a different person after receiving offseason counseling -- in the aftermath of a late-season domestic incident in 2009 -- and he was rewarded with on-field improvement. For the first time in his career, Cabrera is posting an OPS over 1.000. The Tigers successfully installed some young players, too. Max Scherzer had a solid first year with Detroit, Austin Jackson hit immediately and is one of the frontrunners for the AL Rookie of the Year, and Rick Porcello appears to have solved some early-season problems. The Tigers have a whole lot to build on as they look ahead toward 2011.

The Tigers have already signaled to others that they expect to have some payroll flexibility in this offseason, so Detroit could pursue one of the big-ticket items in the free-agent market, whether it's a Jayson Werth or an Adam Dunn. And the Tigers will go into the offseason looking for an every-day shortstop and third baseman, as well as a starting pitcher to slot in behind Justin Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Verlander and Scherzer proved that either could be the sole No. 1 starter on plenty of major league teams. Detroit's pair of aces have combined for a 3.50 ERA, 371 strikeouts and 134 walks in just shy of 400 innings despite Scherzer's brief demotion to Triple-A. This is a good sign for the future, since both are under contract for at least two more years. Cabrera, also in town for the long haul, had one of the best offensive seasons ever by a Tigers hitter, putting his name alongside those of Al Kaline, Norm Cash and Hank Greenberg. Cabrera is hitting .326/.417/.611 and on pace for the most walks and fewest strikeouts he's ever had in a full season.

What went wrong: The Tigers went from an above-average offensive unit with the bases empty (hitting .271/.336/.42 to a powerless lot with runners in scoring position (.253/.344/.37. The pattern was flipped for the pitching staff; they pitched much worse with RISP than with the bases empty. Call it luck or timeliness -- either way, the Tigers didn't have it in 2010. That result is a team that won a full three fewer games than its individual batting and pitching statistics would predict.

What won't happen again: A high-wire act like the one the bullpen put on in 2010. The 'pen has a decent 4.12 ERA despite an ugly 1.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio that is well below league average. Jose Valverde is under contract for 2011, but needs to reduce his walk rate to remain an effective closer.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Production or prevention: The Tigers may have some money to spend if they decline the option on Ordonez, but where they spend that money is the multimillion-dollar question at hand. After Verlander, Porcello and Scherzer, there is much uncertainty in the club's starting rotation. They could look to bring back free agent http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5436Jeremy Bonderman or kick the tires on such names as http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5181Aaron Harang, who is expected to have his option declined by the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-redsCincinnati Reds, or http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4062Ted Lilly, who could hit the open market despite mutual interest in the left-hander returning to the Dodgers. On the other hand, without Ordonez, free-agent-to-be http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4623Brandon Inge and possibly Carlos Guillen to start the season, the Tigers could also use a bat or two to improve an offense that has hovered around the middle of the pack in the AL most of the season. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5176Ty Wigginton could be a fit for third base, as could http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5527Jhonny Peralta if the Tigers pick up his $7 million option for 2011 and find another shortstop, such as http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5908J.J. Hardy or http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4607Cesar Izturis.

Stable bullpen: One way to save the club payroll space to use on starting pitching and impact bats around the infield is to stay in-house when it comes to the bullpen. Valverde will be back, and unless the club moves left-hander http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29235Phil Coke to the rotation, he'll also return. Right-hander http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30116Ryan Perry figures to return as the setup man, and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30177Daniel Schlereth could mow his way onto the roster permanently with more of what he's brought to the table this month. With such power arms already in the organization and ready to contribute regularly, the Tigers can wait to look for another veteran arm to throw into the mix and spend that money elsewhere. If they feel the need to land that pitcher this winter, perhaps http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5938Jason Frasor, http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3950Octavio Dotel or http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5640J.J. Putz fits the mold.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Tigers' farm system is bereft of talent at the upper levels, but 2009 draftee Andy Oliver, who made five starts for the big league squad in the middle of the season, is gunning for more of an opportunity in 2011. With the kind of pure power stuff rarely found in a left-hander, Oliver made strides in his pro debut by finding more consistency with his breaking ball, and scouts see a potential No. 2 or 3 starter if he can begin finding the strike zone more often.

Now, it's time to kiss the New York Mets goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
In a weird way, the Mets actually played above expectations during the first half of the year -- and then inevitably crumbled, amid another wave of injuries and discontent. Francisco Rodriguez was taken off to jail after allegedly assaulting his girlfriend's father just outside the Mets' family room; Jason Bay didn't play in the final weeks of the season because of a concussion; Johan Santana went down with a shoulder problem (and nobody knows what he'll be after undergoing surgery); and Carlos Beltran seemingly battled with the organization all year after disagreements came up about the course of treatment for his knee injury. Not surprisingly, Mets fans stayed away in droves; it's possible that by year's end, the team's attendance will be down about 30 percent since the end of the 2008 season.

Ike Davis was a bright spot, promoted to the big leagues in April and establishing himself as a solid everyday first baseman. R.A. Dickey emerged off the scrap heap to become one of the most consistent starters in the National League. Before Mike Pelfrey faded in the second half, he had first-half outings in which he was dominant. Angel Pagan had a solid season, driving in 67 runs and accumulating 47 extra-base hits. And for all of the handwringing over whether David Wright is still affected by a 2009 beanball, he is on the verge of another 100-RBI season, and hit for far more power in his second season in Citi Field.

A major, and central, problem is that the fan base is in near revolt -- and the team needs to move adeptly. Sources say the Mets have decided to marginalize general manager Omar Minaya, either through reassignment or by firing him, and the next GM is expected to hire a new manager. Within the organization, the expectation is that Wally Backman is a serious candidate, partly because of his longtime ties to the organization as a member of the '86 Mets. Whatever the makeup of the management team, there are many, many thorny problems on the horizon. Should the Mets eat money in order to facilitate a trade of Beltran, knowing that they probably would have to eat $10 million or so to make a deal happen? Should the team dump Oliver Perez before he starts the final year of what has been a disastrous contract? Should the club still count on Jose Reyes as a building-block type of talent, after a couple of injury-plagued seasons? Should the Mets do the unthinkable and consider dangling Wright in order to get badly needed young pitching? The Mets somehow have put themselves in a place where offseason improvement and immediate contention in 2011 will be difficult to achieve despite the fact that New York has one of the highest payrolls in the majors.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Aside from Perez and John Maine (shoulder issues), the Mets had a good rotation. In fact, their starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.82, versus a league average of 4.09. The bullpen initially required some massaging, but rounded into a solid unit even with the K-Rod mess. Josh Thole has shown promise.

What went wrong: Aside from the Beltran injury, this lineup gave playing time to Rod Barajas, Mike Jacobs, Luis Castillo, Gary Matthews Jr. and Jeff Francoeur. All had to be replaced. Bay's first season was a semi-disaster.

What won't happen again: This Mets core staying together for a full season. With key players including Reyes, Beltran and Rodriguez eligible for free agency after next season (as well as millstones Castillo and Perez), the club will have an incentive to deal whomever it can should it fall quickly out of contention.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Problems at the top: It is a foregone conclusion that major changes are coming to Queens. Jerry Manuel is in his final days as manager while general manager Omar Minaya is likely to be dismissed or reassigned. A major obstacle could be CEO Jeff Wilpon. There is growing sentiment that Wilpon is an owner as meddlesome as George Steinbrenner was in his early days as boss of the Yankees. The New York Post recently cited an executive who said of Wilpon: "He will not hire anyone who does not run every personnel decision through him." The only way to get a GM with an experienced track record would be to overpay, and Wilpon may be unwilling to go that route. Possible candidates include former D-backs GM Josh Byrnes and Dodgers assistant GM Logan White. An intriguing possibility is former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, who worked for the Wilpon family as an assistant GM before heading to Houston.

Joe Torre's name has popped up as a managerial candidate, and the outgoing Dodgers manager did not initially shoot the rumor down. Backman is likely a front-runner, but also look at former Arizona/Seattle skipper Bob Melvin, currently a scout for the Mets. The fan base also will want the Mets to consider former skipper Bobby Valentine, but it remains to be seen if he is on the same page as the Wilpons.

Looking in the mirror: The Mets have marketed themselves as a premium product -- just look at the ticket prices at Citi Field. But with Santana expected to miss at least the start of the season, the Mets must decide whether they have a realistic chance at contending in 2011. It's no secret the Mets would love to unload the 2011 contracts of the underperforming Perez ($12 million) and Castillo ($6 million). There also is growing sentiment the Mets will shop Beltran if someone is willing to take all or most of his $18.5 million for next season. Complicating matters are the lingering rumors that the Wilpons remain hampered financially by losses incurred in the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Lucas Duda has gotten a long look this month in the big leagues, and there's always the enigmatic and oft-injured Fernando Martinez hanging around, but Kirk Nieuwenhuis is close to entering a suddenly crowded outfield picture himself. A third-round pick in 2008 out of Azusa Pacific, Nieuwenhuis entered the year needing to prove that last year's Florida State League showing was for real. He did just that with a .274 BA/.327 OBP/.475 SLG line in Double-A that included 18 home runs and 13 stolen bases. If scouts were more convinced he could play center field in the big leagues, he'd be at the top of the depth charts -- but for now, they'll need one more move up a level, and one more year of proof that he can get the job done.

Now, it's time to kiss the Cleveland Indians goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Indians simply did not have the rotation depth to contend in the American League, lacking starters who gave them enough innings, and, more importantly, quality innings; in a summer in which former Indians Sabathia and Cliff Lee are among the game's best starters, Cleveland has ranked 25th in starters' ERA. And given that the Indians have so little margin for error, they needed production from their handful of pricey stars, and instead, they got almost nothing from Grady Sizemore, before the center fielder required knee surgery, or Travis Hafner, who has hit just 11 homers and been a bust, or Kerry Wood, who was hurt for much of the year before the Indians traded the veteran reliever to New York. To top it off, the Indians lost exciting rookie Carlos Santana to a significant knee injury, meaning that the organization's most important player was unable to play in the last weeks of the regular season.

Before Santana got hurt, he showed why he could be a franchise building block, playing with exceptional confidence and posting a .401 on-base percentage in 46 games. Chris Perez established himself as the team's closer, picking up 21 saves and striking out almost a batter per inning. Shin-Soo Choo reaffirmed his status among the game's most underrated players, hitting 20 homers, stealing 20 bases, posting an on-base percentage of close to .400. And Fausto Carmona had a good year in which he reduced his ERA by about 2.5 runs.





As Chris Antonetti takes over as the Indians' general manager, he has to find more starting pitchers, and Cleveland is hopeful about what they saw from Carlos Carrasco in the last month of the season. Until the Indians' rotation stabilizes, Cleveland probably won't be in the AL Central conversation in any future September.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Not a lot; BP projected the Indians to finish 79-83, and they won't sniff that. Choo ranked fifth in the AL in True Average (.315). Carmona made a nice return to rotational utility after two terrible seasons, generating plenty of grounders (and inducing 30 double plays), although his ERA below 4.00 might be tough to sustain in light of a SIERA that's a half-run higher. Santana proved that he's worth the hype. Perez ranks fifth in the American League in WXRL to highlight an underrated bullpen.

What went wrong: Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. Bum knees knocked out Sizemore early and Santana late, while shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera missed almost half the season with a broken arm. Injuries even struck in the minors, knocking out one of their best pitching prospects, Hector Rondon, who won't be back in the picture until 2012. Being healthy was no guarantee of delivery, unfortunately: top prospects Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley flopped, and Hafner's return to relative health didn't provide the Tribe with the Pronk of old. The rotation was among the league's worst despite Carmona's comeback and the presence of veterans Jake Westbrook (before he was dealt to the Cardinals) and Justin Masterson, as second-tier prospects like David Huff joined in the general theme of providing disappointment.

What won't happen again: Injuries, or so you'd have to hope. The Tribe was below average offensively at eight of nine lineup slots, and while prospects like Santana, LaPorta, and Brantley should get established enough to help reverse that next year, they desperately need Sizemore to revert to the form that made him one of the game's rising stars. The rotation should be slightly improved with the arrival of prospect Carrasco, but blue-chip starter Alex White can't arrive a moment too soon.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
New infielders: Since the trade of Jhonny Peralta, the Indians have taken another look at Andy Marte at third base, and have extended Luis Valbuena the same courtesy at second. Neither player has performed, which may mean the club looks to their own farm system for help. Jared Goedert had a big year in the minors and could be ready for a shot at the big leagues. If Antonetti and his staff prefer to give one or both prospects more seasoning, Valbuena figures to get another chance out of spring training while the Tribe could go shopping for a stop-gap at the hot corner. If so, it would likely be on the cheap, as the club's payroll is expected to remain among the league's lowest.

Pitching out: With prospects Rondon and Adam Miller continuing to battle injuries -- Rondon had Tommy John surgery last month -- the Tribe are left to count on Carmona and a group of unproven arms with a lack of upside with few exceptions. Carrasco could develop into more than a back-end starter if things fall his way, but a veteran pickup may be in the plans after outgoing GM Mark Shapiro traded Westbrook to the St. Louis Cardinals in July. Westbrook could be a candidate to return as he hits free agency this winter, and lefty Nate Robertson could be among the veteran targets. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Carmona becomes trade bait, but without enough confidence that the innings will be covered, that may not happen until the summer.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Second base has been an offensive black hole in Cleveland this year, but answers are on their way. While converted outfielder Jason Kipnis garnered much of the attention this year with a .307/.386/.492 line in his full-season debut that included half a year at Double-A, he's likely going to have to wait a bit while Cord Phelps gets the first crack at the job. The 2008 third-round pick had done little leading into the year other than prove he can draw a walk, Phelps suddenly started hitting, including a .317/.386/.506 line in 66 Triple-A games. He's a bit bulky and slow for the position, but with gap power and good plate discipline, he'll at least represent a major upgrade over Luis Valbuena until Kipnis is deemed ready.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/fla/florida-marlinsFlorida Marlins goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Marlins did almost nothing to address a very thin bullpen and -- surprise! -- their bullpen was a problem area for most of the year, ranking 19th among 30 teams in ERA and second in blown saves. Manager Fredi Gonzalez was on double-secret probation with owner Jeffrey Loria when the season started -- after almost being fired at the end of last year -- and he was about to be fired when shortstop Hanley Ramirez's hustle incident occurred. Gonzalez handled that well and the Marlins felt like they couldn't fire the manager without implicitly endorsing Ramirez's actions, so the club leadership waited a bit before finally taking down Gonzalez. Bobby Valentine was on the verge of a deal to become the next manager, but, reportedly, a phone call did not go well and the Marlins decided to go with an interim manager. So if your perception is that owner Jeffrey Loria tends to change his mind, well, you'd be correct. And if you're thinking the Marlins sometimes suffer because they don't spend on the bullpen and team depth, you'd be right on that, as well.

There are bright spots for the Marlins, though. Mike Stanton was called up from the minors and gave every indication that he is going to be a superstar, bashing 20 homers in his first 91 games, despite the fact he's still a couple of months shy of his 21st birthday. Josh Johnson dominated before getting hurt near season's end, and Dan Uggla posted his usual 30-homer season. Logan Morrison got on base in nearly every game he played, and Gaby Sanchez has competed for the National League Rookie of the Year award.

GM Larry Beinfest's challenge is to try to build a team with relative pennies, which is why sustaining a reliable relief corps was difficult. But given that the Marlins are scheduled to move into a new ballpark in 2012 and that leaked financial documents showed that Loria has been making more money than anybody realized, there might be more pressure on the team to spend in this offseason. The Marlins, as always, seem to have a great core of talent, but better complementary pieces are needed.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Ramirez and Uggla continued their slugging ways, while the successful debuts of Morrison and Stanton in the outfield corners gave fans hope for an even more complete lineup in 2011. Johnson made good on his offseason contract extension by leading the league in ERA, while Anibal Sanchez continued his comeback from shoulder surgery with a full season of health and effectiveness.

What went wrong: While ex-Marlin Miguel Cabrera was busy posting MVP-level numbers for the Tigers, the youngsters received for him in the trade have yet to grow from minnows to Marlins. Toolsy center fielder Cameron Maybin has experienced minor league success but has not been able to permanently wrest playing time from the likes of Cody Ross and Emilio Bonifacio, while lefty starter Andrew Miller is looking more and more like a lost cause.

What won't happen again: Chris Coghlan won't lose half a season to a shaving-cream-pie-related injury. Talk about your sophomore jinxes -- the 2009 Rookie of the Year started the season slowly, coming to the plate 113 times before his first extra-base hit, then tore the meniscus in his knee while "pieing" Wes Helms during a postgame interview. Next year Coghlan should be healthier, more productive and more discriminating in his celebratory activities.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Eye on the bottom line: Close attention will be paid on just how the Marlins spend their money. This was a franchise that cried poverty when negotiating a new ballpark and then reportedly turned a nice profit by pocketing its share of MLB's revenue sharing plan. Marlins president David Samson has denied any impropriety and the only way to prove that is by opening the wallet. It will start with Uggla, who is eligible for arbitration but is looking for a deal similar to the six-year, $70 million deal given to Ramirez. The Marlins have yet to budge at this point and might open up trade talks for the two-time All-Star once again. The Fish would like to sign 14-game winner Ricky Nolasco to a multiyear deal, but those talks were going nowhere as of early this month. The Marlins could be in the market for a No. 1 catcher if they decide against offering arbitration to Ronny Paulino. Yorvit Torrealba, Bengie Molina and John Buck are viable free-agent candidates, or the Fish could try to work out a deal for Washington's Ivan Rodriguez, who reportedly wants to return to South Florida. Leo Nunez has yet to prove he is a consistent closer, so the Fish could hope to land a reasonably priced deal with Brian Fuentes or Octavio Dotel.

New man at the top: There will be plenty of managerial changes this winter, and few will have as much intrigue as the Marlins, who could be waiting to see if Ozzie Guillen finally wears out his welcome on Chicago's South Side. Guillen lives in Miami and is a former Marlins coach, but his relationship with Samson could end up as turbulent as Guillen's relationship now is with Kenny Williams. Yankees bench coach Tony Pena is high on the list, but the Fish may be unwilling to wait for the Yankees' postseason to end before talking to him. Dodgers third-base coach Larry Bowa and former Mets second baseman Wally Backman are believed to be among about a dozen candidates that were being considered as of mid-September. The Marlins have not played particularly well down the stretch, likely ending any hope for interim skipper Edwin Rodriguez.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
It took a little longer than expected, but the Marlins may finally have the late-inning power arm they anticipated when acquiring Jose Ceda from the Cubs in 2008. Shoulder surgery cost him all of 2009, but he returned in June and had twice as many strikeouts (50) as hits allowed (25) in 40 1/3 minor league innings before getting called up in September. Physically resembling a young Lee Smith, Ceda's control issues have resurfaced in the big leagues, but with mid-90s heat and a devastating slider, he'll be fine in the end.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward an immediate 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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[h3]The overview[/h3]

Before Stephen Strasburg blew out his elbow and needed reconstructive surgery he'd thrown a total of 68 innings in the majors -- and the rest of the Nationals' starters have struggled in more than 700 innings. Going into play Saturday, the Nationals' rotation ranked 26th in ERA, an inefficiency that has placed a heavy burden on the Washington bullpen all year.

The Nats have also had problems getting consistent production out of the top two spots in their lineup: Their leadoff hitters rank 28th in OPS, while their No. 2 hitters are ranked 20th. Washington has gotten a lot of attention for drafting elite talent in recent years -- Strasburg, Drew Storen, Bryce Harper -- but remains a team with very little depth.

Ryan Zimmerman, however, continues to be one of the most unheralded stars in the big leagues, piling up power numbers, on-base percentage and web gems. And while Ian Desmond has made a lot of errors, he continues to improve, hitting over .300 in the second half of the season. Jordan Zimmermann returned to the rotation after missing a year because of an elbow reconstruction, and in the time that Strasburg pitched, he demonstrated that he could also be as good as advertised.

It appears that the Nationals will lose Adam Dunn -- who is responsible for more than a quarter of the Washington home runs this year -- to free agency, which will leave a gaping hole in the middle of the lineup. Somehow, the Nationals must find a credible hitter to bat behind Zimmerman, or else he'll become an NL version of Miguel Cabrera, a great hitter who is constantly pitched around. Jordan Zimmermann's development is crucial for the Nationals, who don't appear to have much in the way of high-impact pitching, now that Strasburg is going to miss most or all of 2011.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut on June 8 against the Pittsburgh Pirates and struck out 14 batters in seven innings on his way to recording 92 strikeouts in 68 innings over 12 starts. The day before Strasburg's debut, the Nationals added another mega-talent by selecting 17-year-old switch-hitting outfielder Bryce Harper with the first overall pick in the amateur draft. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman continued his march toward superstardom, Adam Dunn had a big season in the home run and walk departments and rookie shortstop Ian Desmond showed promise despite a high error total.

What went wrong: Strasburg's elbow blew out in an Aug. 21 start at Philadelphia, and he underwent Tommy John reconstructive surgery. He likely won't pitch in the major leagues again until the beginning of the 2012 season. The rotation was a mess beyond veteran workhorse Livan Hernandez. And, despite banner years by Zimmerman and Dunn, the Nats struggled to mount a consistent offensive attack, ranking 13th in the National League in runs scored.

What won't happen again: No Nationals players will come close to generating the hype of Strasburg -- the days he started home games were called "Strasmas" in Washington -- unless Harper makes a meteoric rise through the farm system.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The Strasburg effect: With so much of their future tied to the development of Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals must spend the winter telling their fans, as well as any possible free-agent signings, that a legitimate timetable for playoff contention remains in place. First of all, the Nats must replace Strasburg's innings, and possible solutions include Cuban defector Yuniesky Maya, Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang (remember him?). They could bring back Livan Hernandez, but that appears less likely after he faded in the second half. Another possible option could be making a pitch for Javier Vazquez, who the Yankees will not re-sign. Vazquez was at his best while pitching for the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, and he becomes more attractive should he slip to Type B free agency. Even before Strasburg went down, GM Mike Rizzo was telling the media that the club's biggest need was starting pitching.

Defense wins championships: The Nats never pulled the trigger on a deal for Adam Dunn at the deadline and now appear poised to let the slugging first baseman walk after the season. It is believed that Rizzo is no longer willing to put up with Dunn's defensive deficiencies, even if he puts up another 40-home run season. Expect the Nats to make a strong pitch for free-agent-to-be Carlos Pena, who is a far better defensive first baseman. Washington entered the weekend with 77 unearned runs allowed, second highest in the majors, and a chunk of that is tied to Dunn's matador defense. The Nats will also demand better glove work from Ian Desmond, who leads all major league shortstops in errors, and could search for a midlevel free agent in right field if they decide that neither Roger Bernadina nor Michael Morse are long-term solutions.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Nationals fans are already getting a taste of what Danny Espinosa can do, as his September showing in the big leagues has given him a leg up as next year's starting second baseman. The third-round pick is not a jaw-dropping athlete, yet he's combined for 40 home runs and 54 stolen bases in his first two full seasons in the minors, while impressing scouts with his max-effort style of play and mature baseball instincts. A lack of plate discipline has a chance to hinder his progress, but his overall skill set is rarely found in a middle infielder.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-bluejaysToronto Blue Jays goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]

For the first time in a decade, the Blue Jays did not have Roy Halladay anchoring their staff, and as the summer went along and Toronto seemed to lack only that one lead starter, some scouts asked an open-ended question: Would the Blue Jays have been better off keeping Halladay in 2010, giving the team a better chance to win? Toronto might have lacked the necessary depth to keep up the American League East powers, especially in light of the down years for Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, whose batting averages hovered just over .200. But their overall performance this season made that question legitimate.

The young pitching that was in place when Alex Anthopoulos took over as general manager -- such as Ricky Romero -- has continued to blossom, and the first-year GM augmented the staff as well. Brandon Morrow, acquired from Seattle for reliever Brandon League, made some mechanical adjustments and has evolved into one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the AL. And Jose Bautista, a journeyman who had bounced from team to team for years, has had a breakout season, shattering the team's single-season record for home runs. In addition, Vernon Wells has improved in recent seasons, again becoming a credible source of production in the middle of the Toronto lineup, which will finish the year with more homers than any other team in the majors.

Ultimately, to compete, the Jays must continue to see improvement and maturation from the likes of Romero, Morrow and Kyle Drabek as well as from new shortstop Yunel Escobar, who seemed to be energized by his trade to Toronto. The Blue Jays also will have to make a tough call on Bautista: Should they trade him now to take advantage of his sky-high trade value, or should they hang onto him for 2011, before he becomes a free agent? They're a team on the rise.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: After a 75-win disappointment in 2009 led to a long-anticipated regime change in the front office, new GM Anthopoulos managed the neat trick of expanding the Blue Jays' talent base while also delivering a better ballclub, sending manager Cito Gaston back to franchise Valhalla with possibly another winning season. Many of Anthopoulos' canny trade pickups figure to deliver dividends into the future, especially Morrow and Drabek in the rotation, as noted above. A number of veterans delivered useful seasons, especially center fielder Wells, shortstop Alex Gonzalez (before he was dealt for Escobar), closer Kevin Gregg and All-Star catcher John Buck. The rotation received the benefit of Romero proving that his 2009 wasn't a mirage, Brett Cecil getting established and the successful comeback of Shaun Marcum.

What went wrong: Single-season homer records are what the Blue Jays get to play for because they're stuck being baseball's best fourth-place team. Bouncing around .500 in the American League East is no mean feat. Adjust for their schedule, and you'd have a team that ranks sixth in the league in wins and a contender in either the Central or West.

Beyond the geography-as-destiny problem, top prospect Travis Snider didn't blossom, and Lind didn't reward the club for the decision to give him an expensive, multiyear, arbitration-avoiding extension. Hill learned that regression is a function of reality, dropping from his 2009 breakout to this season's struggle to get his on-base percentage over .280 or his batting average above the Mendoza Line.

What won't happen again: You won't see another 50-homer season from Bautista, because he's almost doubled his previous best ratio of homers per fly ball. You can't call his 2010 a comeback campaign: He's never been this good before, not unless Bautista is the latter-day incarnation of Hank Sauer, a hitter who goes from anonymity to slugging stardom in his 30s. However, even reverting to career norms and an isolated power mark between .160-.180 make Bautista a useful source of power at whichever corner the Blue Jays put him. Toronto fans also should take solace in that Hill should bounce back from his terrible season. His power and walk rates have stayed consistent, suggesting some unusually poor luck on the balls he's put into play.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Decisions, decisions: The Blue Jays enter the winter with decisions to make on closer Gregg and the rest of their bullpen. The club holds a dual option on the right-hander that allows them to retain his services for 2011 or for each of the next two seasons at reasonable salaries. Gregg could have value on the trade market, too, but the club needs to bring a viable relief corps north with it next spring if it wishes to contend in the AL East. Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are slated to hit free agency. Will either be offered arbitration? Shawn Camp and Casey Janssen could cost the club dearly as arbitration-eligibles, potentially restricting how active the club can be on the free-agent market, where veterans at catcher and infielder could be on the to-do list.

Bautista's bounty: He's well on his way to hitting 50-plus home runs, so Bautista's status with the club will be a hot topic this winter. The slugger is making $2.4 million this season and will be arbitration-eligible one final time before free agency comes. He could break the bank after his monster season, perhaps warranting as much as an eight-figure salary for 2011, although more likely just south of that. Toronto could try to lock him up with some guaranteed money for three or four years, which could be attractive to the player and the club, or he could be the subject of trade rumors during the offseason. But, as Rumor Central has noted all summer, his value isn't exactly easy to gauge because it took him until age 29 to turn his plus raw power into something more than a platoon bat.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Between J.P. Arencibia's two-home run debut and Drabek's start again the Orioles last week, Blue Jays fans are already getting a glimpse of a possible All-Star battery in the future, and that future should begin in 2011. With Buck likely to depart for the greener pastures of free agency, Arencibia is ready to step in at catcher after pounding out 32 home runs in just 412 Triple-A at-bats. Las Vegas is a launching pad to be sure, but in any environment, Arencibia's power is well above average for a backstop. He also has the athleticism to turn into a good defender, although there's still work to be done in that department. As for Drabek, many scouts feel he has been big league-ready for most of the year, and he could break camp next spring toward the front of the Blue Jays' rotation.

Now, it's time to kiss the Arizona Diamondbacks goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Arizona gambled on its rotation strength coming into the season, trading for veteran Edwin Jackson and prospect Ian Kennedy and picking up the 2010 option on former Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb. But Webb never regained the arm strength he'd had in the past and didn't throw an inning, and the Diamondbacks' bullpen follies were historically bad in the first half of the year. General manager Josh Byrnes and manager A.J. Hinch were fired in a dramatic shift; Byrnes still had years remaining on his contract.

There is good news, though. In an effort to downsize their payroll and start a rebuilding process that will continue into next year, the Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren and Jackson, and the early returns on the players acquired in those deals have been good -- most notably from Daniel Hudson. Arizona appears to have a decent rotation going forward, with Hudson, Barry Enright, Kennedy and Joe Saunders forming a backbone for the pitching staff. Center fielder Chris Young and second baseman Kelly Johnson had excellent comeback seasons.

The Diamondbacks are expected to hire Kevin Towers or interim GM Jerry DiPoto to take over the team's baseball operations in the hours ahead, and the first order of business is to rebuild a disastrous bullpen. The expectation within the industry is that Arizona will aggressively pursue an established closer such as Rafael Soriano during the offseason. In another philosophical shift, Arizona probably will look to trade one or two regulars from its lineup, such as Mark Reynolds, in an effort to change the team's offense; the Diamondbacks are on the verge of setting a single-season team record for strikeouts.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Young finally put together a season in which he was both patient and powerful, hitting .261/.341/.457 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 27 stolen bases. Johnson, an offseason acquisition, is the club's best hitter. Although Miguel Montero missed games thanks to injury, his time behind the plate has showed the Diamondbacks won't miss Chris Snyder, who was traded to the Pirates. Hudson, who was acquired for Jackson at the trade deadline, has been excellent in the desert with a 1.65 ERA (and 3.10 skill-interactive ERA) in 71 innings while whiffing more than eight batters per nine innings pitched.

What went wrong: Justin Upton failed to follow up on his breakout 2009 campaign and put up a very average season for a right fielder. Reynolds showed everyone that his 2009 was a fluke as he has reverted to his low-batting average, high-strikeout seasons of the past by hitting .204/.323/.448. The bullpen failed on such a grand scale that it merits its own section.

What won't happen again: It is almost out of the question for the Diamondbacks' bullpen to be as terrible in 2011 as it has been in 2010. In terms of the Baseball Prospectus metric expected wins above replacement level (WXRL), the Diamondbacks have the worst bullpen of any team since the 1999 Kansas City Royals, which is the worst bullpen since 1954. Essentially, the 2010 D-backs have the third-worst bullpen in the past five decades. Just a replacement-level effort in 2011 would increase the Diamondbacks' win total in the same way that adding Mariano Rivera would. It may not be good next season, but it's nigh impossible that it will be as horrendous.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
On rotation: It's unknown what'll happen with Webb, who will become a free agent at season's end after missing all but one start since the end of the 2008 campaign. But the starting rotation has three young arms who could earn jobs during spring training in Kennedy, Enright, Hudson and left-hander Saunders. If Webb returns, it may be as an audition to better position himself for the free-agent market after a healthy season, so the general manager, whoever that may be, may have to check out the market for a veteran starter or two. A middle-market arm such as Jeremy Bonderman or Ted Lilly might make sense, as might Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood or Jake Westbrook. The D-backs have holes in their bullpen, too, but it appears as if the club may go the inexpensive route for the time being.

Trade bait: With Arizona at least a few years from contention, it can afford to send out an established player or two to acquire more help for the future. To add more proven talent, the Diamondbacks may have to part with a proven player or two and possibly some of their youth. Shortstop Stephen Drew could be the shiny asset who nets the club the kind of package it needs to fill multiple holes. If Drew is placed on the trade market, the first club in line might be the Boston Red Sox, even though Marco Scutaro is under contract through 2012. Drew will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter and could cost the club upwards of $6 million after making $3.4 million in 2010.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After failing in the big leagues at the end of last year, has first baseman Brandon Allen figured some things out? Although he's unlikely to ever hit for a high average, the wide-bodied first baseman stepped up both his power and patience in 2010, slugging 25 home runs and drawing 83 walks in just 107 games for Triple-A Reno as part of a .261/.405/.528 showing. If the Diamondbacks decline Adam LaRoche's mutual option ($7.5 million with a $1.5 million buyout), the first-base job is Allen's.

Now, it's time to kiss the Detroit Tigers goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Tigers managed to hang in the AL Central race before being blindsided by a series of injuries to Magglio Ordonez, Joel Zumaya and Carlos Guillen, and they never recovered. The Tigers went into the second half 10 games over .500, at 48-38, but by Aug. 13 they were five games under .500. Miguel Cabrera may have been the front-runner for the MVP at the All-Star break, but the injuries thinned out the Detroit lineup and allowed rival teams to pitch around the slugger constantly; by season's end, he'll probably have accumulated close to three dozen intentional walks, and close to 100 walks overall.

Cabrera arrived in spring training looking like a different person after receiving offseason counseling -- in the aftermath of a late-season domestic incident in 2009 -- and he was rewarded with on-field improvement. For the first time in his career, Cabrera is posting an OPS over 1.000. The Tigers successfully installed some young players, too. Max Scherzer had a solid first year with Detroit, Austin Jackson hit immediately and is one of the frontrunners for the AL Rookie of the Year, and Rick Porcello appears to have solved some early-season problems. The Tigers have a whole lot to build on as they look ahead toward 2011.

The Tigers have already signaled to others that they expect to have some payroll flexibility in this offseason, so Detroit could pursue one of the big-ticket items in the free-agent market, whether it's a Jayson Werth or an Adam Dunn. And the Tigers will go into the offseason looking for an every-day shortstop and third baseman, as well as a starting pitcher to slot in behind Justin Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Verlander and Scherzer proved that either could be the sole No. 1 starter on plenty of major league teams. Detroit's pair of aces have combined for a 3.50 ERA, 371 strikeouts and 134 walks in just shy of 400 innings despite Scherzer's brief demotion to Triple-A. This is a good sign for the future, since both are under contract for at least two more years. Cabrera, also in town for the long haul, had one of the best offensive seasons ever by a Tigers hitter, putting his name alongside those of Al Kaline, Norm Cash and Hank Greenberg. Cabrera is hitting .326/.417/.611 and on pace for the most walks and fewest strikeouts he's ever had in a full season.

What went wrong: The Tigers went from an above-average offensive unit with the bases empty (hitting .271/.336/.42 to a powerless lot with runners in scoring position (.253/.344/.37. The pattern was flipped for the pitching staff; they pitched much worse with RISP than with the bases empty. Call it luck or timeliness -- either way, the Tigers didn't have it in 2010. That result is a team that won a full three fewer games than its individual batting and pitching statistics would predict.

What won't happen again: A high-wire act like the one the bullpen put on in 2010. The 'pen has a decent 4.12 ERA despite an ugly 1.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio that is well below league average. Jose Valverde is under contract for 2011, but needs to reduce his walk rate to remain an effective closer.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Production or prevention: The Tigers may have some money to spend if they decline the option on Ordonez, but where they spend that money is the multimillion-dollar question at hand. After Verlander, Porcello and Scherzer, there is much uncertainty in the club's starting rotation. They could look to bring back free agent http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5436Jeremy Bonderman or kick the tires on such names as http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5181Aaron Harang, who is expected to have his option declined by the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-redsCincinnati Reds, or http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4062Ted Lilly, who could hit the open market despite mutual interest in the left-hander returning to the Dodgers. On the other hand, without Ordonez, free-agent-to-be http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4623Brandon Inge and possibly Carlos Guillen to start the season, the Tigers could also use a bat or two to improve an offense that has hovered around the middle of the pack in the AL most of the season. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5176Ty Wigginton could be a fit for third base, as could http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5527Jhonny Peralta if the Tigers pick up his $7 million option for 2011 and find another shortstop, such as http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5908J.J. Hardy or http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4607Cesar Izturis.

Stable bullpen: One way to save the club payroll space to use on starting pitching and impact bats around the infield is to stay in-house when it comes to the bullpen. Valverde will be back, and unless the club moves left-hander http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29235Phil Coke to the rotation, he'll also return. Right-hander http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30116Ryan Perry figures to return as the setup man, and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30177Daniel Schlereth could mow his way onto the roster permanently with more of what he's brought to the table this month. With such power arms already in the organization and ready to contribute regularly, the Tigers can wait to look for another veteran arm to throw into the mix and spend that money elsewhere. If they feel the need to land that pitcher this winter, perhaps http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5938Jason Frasor, http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3950Octavio Dotel or http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5640J.J. Putz fits the mold.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Tigers' farm system is bereft of talent at the upper levels, but 2009 draftee Andy Oliver, who made five starts for the big league squad in the middle of the season, is gunning for more of an opportunity in 2011. With the kind of pure power stuff rarely found in a left-hander, Oliver made strides in his pro debut by finding more consistency with his breaking ball, and scouts see a potential No. 2 or 3 starter if he can begin finding the strike zone more often.

Now, it's time to kiss the New York Mets goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
In a weird way, the Mets actually played above expectations during the first half of the year -- and then inevitably crumbled, amid another wave of injuries and discontent. Francisco Rodriguez was taken off to jail after allegedly assaulting his girlfriend's father just outside the Mets' family room; Jason Bay didn't play in the final weeks of the season because of a concussion; Johan Santana went down with a shoulder problem (and nobody knows what he'll be after undergoing surgery); and Carlos Beltran seemingly battled with the organization all year after disagreements came up about the course of treatment for his knee injury. Not surprisingly, Mets fans stayed away in droves; it's possible that by year's end, the team's attendance will be down about 30 percent since the end of the 2008 season.

Ike Davis was a bright spot, promoted to the big leagues in April and establishing himself as a solid everyday first baseman. R.A. Dickey emerged off the scrap heap to become one of the most consistent starters in the National League. Before Mike Pelfrey faded in the second half, he had first-half outings in which he was dominant. Angel Pagan had a solid season, driving in 67 runs and accumulating 47 extra-base hits. And for all of the handwringing over whether David Wright is still affected by a 2009 beanball, he is on the verge of another 100-RBI season, and hit for far more power in his second season in Citi Field.

A major, and central, problem is that the fan base is in near revolt -- and the team needs to move adeptly. Sources say the Mets have decided to marginalize general manager Omar Minaya, either through reassignment or by firing him, and the next GM is expected to hire a new manager. Within the organization, the expectation is that Wally Backman is a serious candidate, partly because of his longtime ties to the organization as a member of the '86 Mets. Whatever the makeup of the management team, there are many, many thorny problems on the horizon. Should the Mets eat money in order to facilitate a trade of Beltran, knowing that they probably would have to eat $10 million or so to make a deal happen? Should the team dump Oliver Perez before he starts the final year of what has been a disastrous contract? Should the club still count on Jose Reyes as a building-block type of talent, after a couple of injury-plagued seasons? Should the Mets do the unthinkable and consider dangling Wright in order to get badly needed young pitching? The Mets somehow have put themselves in a place where offseason improvement and immediate contention in 2011 will be difficult to achieve despite the fact that New York has one of the highest payrolls in the majors.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Aside from Perez and John Maine (shoulder issues), the Mets had a good rotation. In fact, their starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.82, versus a league average of 4.09. The bullpen initially required some massaging, but rounded into a solid unit even with the K-Rod mess. Josh Thole has shown promise.

What went wrong: Aside from the Beltran injury, this lineup gave playing time to Rod Barajas, Mike Jacobs, Luis Castillo, Gary Matthews Jr. and Jeff Francoeur. All had to be replaced. Bay's first season was a semi-disaster.

What won't happen again: This Mets core staying together for a full season. With key players including Reyes, Beltran and Rodriguez eligible for free agency after next season (as well as millstones Castillo and Perez), the club will have an incentive to deal whomever it can should it fall quickly out of contention.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Problems at the top: It is a foregone conclusion that major changes are coming to Queens. Jerry Manuel is in his final days as manager while general manager Omar Minaya is likely to be dismissed or reassigned. A major obstacle could be CEO Jeff Wilpon. There is growing sentiment that Wilpon is an owner as meddlesome as George Steinbrenner was in his early days as boss of the Yankees. The New York Post recently cited an executive who said of Wilpon: "He will not hire anyone who does not run every personnel decision through him." The only way to get a GM with an experienced track record would be to overpay, and Wilpon may be unwilling to go that route. Possible candidates include former D-backs GM Josh Byrnes and Dodgers assistant GM Logan White. An intriguing possibility is former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, who worked for the Wilpon family as an assistant GM before heading to Houston.

Joe Torre's name has popped up as a managerial candidate, and the outgoing Dodgers manager did not initially shoot the rumor down. Backman is likely a front-runner, but also look at former Arizona/Seattle skipper Bob Melvin, currently a scout for the Mets. The fan base also will want the Mets to consider former skipper Bobby Valentine, but it remains to be seen if he is on the same page as the Wilpons.

Looking in the mirror: The Mets have marketed themselves as a premium product -- just look at the ticket prices at Citi Field. But with Santana expected to miss at least the start of the season, the Mets must decide whether they have a realistic chance at contending in 2011. It's no secret the Mets would love to unload the 2011 contracts of the underperforming Perez ($12 million) and Castillo ($6 million). There also is growing sentiment the Mets will shop Beltran if someone is willing to take all or most of his $18.5 million for next season. Complicating matters are the lingering rumors that the Wilpons remain hampered financially by losses incurred in the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Lucas Duda has gotten a long look this month in the big leagues, and there's always the enigmatic and oft-injured Fernando Martinez hanging around, but Kirk Nieuwenhuis is close to entering a suddenly crowded outfield picture himself. A third-round pick in 2008 out of Azusa Pacific, Nieuwenhuis entered the year needing to prove that last year's Florida State League showing was for real. He did just that with a .274 BA/.327 OBP/.475 SLG line in Double-A that included 18 home runs and 13 stolen bases. If scouts were more convinced he could play center field in the big leagues, he'd be at the top of the depth charts -- but for now, they'll need one more move up a level, and one more year of proof that he can get the job done.

Now, it's time to kiss the Cleveland Indians goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Indians simply did not have the rotation depth to contend in the American League, lacking starters who gave them enough innings, and, more importantly, quality innings; in a summer in which former Indians Sabathia and Cliff Lee are among the game's best starters, Cleveland has ranked 25th in starters' ERA. And given that the Indians have so little margin for error, they needed production from their handful of pricey stars, and instead, they got almost nothing from Grady Sizemore, before the center fielder required knee surgery, or Travis Hafner, who has hit just 11 homers and been a bust, or Kerry Wood, who was hurt for much of the year before the Indians traded the veteran reliever to New York. To top it off, the Indians lost exciting rookie Carlos Santana to a significant knee injury, meaning that the organization's most important player was unable to play in the last weeks of the regular season.

Before Santana got hurt, he showed why he could be a franchise building block, playing with exceptional confidence and posting a .401 on-base percentage in 46 games. Chris Perez established himself as the team's closer, picking up 21 saves and striking out almost a batter per inning. Shin-Soo Choo reaffirmed his status among the game's most underrated players, hitting 20 homers, stealing 20 bases, posting an on-base percentage of close to .400. And Fausto Carmona had a good year in which he reduced his ERA by about 2.5 runs.





As Chris Antonetti takes over as the Indians' general manager, he has to find more starting pitchers, and Cleveland is hopeful about what they saw from Carlos Carrasco in the last month of the season. Until the Indians' rotation stabilizes, Cleveland probably won't be in the AL Central conversation in any future September.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Not a lot; BP projected the Indians to finish 79-83, and they won't sniff that. Choo ranked fifth in the AL in True Average (.315). Carmona made a nice return to rotational utility after two terrible seasons, generating plenty of grounders (and inducing 30 double plays), although his ERA below 4.00 might be tough to sustain in light of a SIERA that's a half-run higher. Santana proved that he's worth the hype. Perez ranks fifth in the American League in WXRL to highlight an underrated bullpen.

What went wrong: Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. Bum knees knocked out Sizemore early and Santana late, while shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera missed almost half the season with a broken arm. Injuries even struck in the minors, knocking out one of their best pitching prospects, Hector Rondon, who won't be back in the picture until 2012. Being healthy was no guarantee of delivery, unfortunately: top prospects Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley flopped, and Hafner's return to relative health didn't provide the Tribe with the Pronk of old. The rotation was among the league's worst despite Carmona's comeback and the presence of veterans Jake Westbrook (before he was dealt to the Cardinals) and Justin Masterson, as second-tier prospects like David Huff joined in the general theme of providing disappointment.

What won't happen again: Injuries, or so you'd have to hope. The Tribe was below average offensively at eight of nine lineup slots, and while prospects like Santana, LaPorta, and Brantley should get established enough to help reverse that next year, they desperately need Sizemore to revert to the form that made him one of the game's rising stars. The rotation should be slightly improved with the arrival of prospect Carrasco, but blue-chip starter Alex White can't arrive a moment too soon.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
New infielders: Since the trade of Jhonny Peralta, the Indians have taken another look at Andy Marte at third base, and have extended Luis Valbuena the same courtesy at second. Neither player has performed, which may mean the club looks to their own farm system for help. Jared Goedert had a big year in the minors and could be ready for a shot at the big leagues. If Antonetti and his staff prefer to give one or both prospects more seasoning, Valbuena figures to get another chance out of spring training while the Tribe could go shopping for a stop-gap at the hot corner. If so, it would likely be on the cheap, as the club's payroll is expected to remain among the league's lowest.

Pitching out: With prospects Rondon and Adam Miller continuing to battle injuries -- Rondon had Tommy John surgery last month -- the Tribe are left to count on Carmona and a group of unproven arms with a lack of upside with few exceptions. Carrasco could develop into more than a back-end starter if things fall his way, but a veteran pickup may be in the plans after outgoing GM Mark Shapiro traded Westbrook to the St. Louis Cardinals in July. Westbrook could be a candidate to return as he hits free agency this winter, and lefty Nate Robertson could be among the veteran targets. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Carmona becomes trade bait, but without enough confidence that the innings will be covered, that may not happen until the summer.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Second base has been an offensive black hole in Cleveland this year, but answers are on their way. While converted outfielder Jason Kipnis garnered much of the attention this year with a .307/.386/.492 line in his full-season debut that included half a year at Double-A, he's likely going to have to wait a bit while Cord Phelps gets the first crack at the job. The 2008 third-round pick had done little leading into the year other than prove he can draw a walk, Phelps suddenly started hitting, including a .317/.386/.506 line in 66 Triple-A games. He's a bit bulky and slow for the position, but with gap power and good plate discipline, he'll at least represent a major upgrade over Luis Valbuena until Kipnis is deemed ready.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/fla/florida-marlinsFlorida Marlins goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Marlins did almost nothing to address a very thin bullpen and -- surprise! -- their bullpen was a problem area for most of the year, ranking 19th among 30 teams in ERA and second in blown saves. Manager Fredi Gonzalez was on double-secret probation with owner Jeffrey Loria when the season started -- after almost being fired at the end of last year -- and he was about to be fired when shortstop Hanley Ramirez's hustle incident occurred. Gonzalez handled that well and the Marlins felt like they couldn't fire the manager without implicitly endorsing Ramirez's actions, so the club leadership waited a bit before finally taking down Gonzalez. Bobby Valentine was on the verge of a deal to become the next manager, but, reportedly, a phone call did not go well and the Marlins decided to go with an interim manager. So if your perception is that owner Jeffrey Loria tends to change his mind, well, you'd be correct. And if you're thinking the Marlins sometimes suffer because they don't spend on the bullpen and team depth, you'd be right on that, as well.

There are bright spots for the Marlins, though. Mike Stanton was called up from the minors and gave every indication that he is going to be a superstar, bashing 20 homers in his first 91 games, despite the fact he's still a couple of months shy of his 21st birthday. Josh Johnson dominated before getting hurt near season's end, and Dan Uggla posted his usual 30-homer season. Logan Morrison got on base in nearly every game he played, and Gaby Sanchez has competed for the National League Rookie of the Year award.

GM Larry Beinfest's challenge is to try to build a team with relative pennies, which is why sustaining a reliable relief corps was difficult. But given that the Marlins are scheduled to move into a new ballpark in 2012 and that leaked financial documents showed that Loria has been making more money than anybody realized, there might be more pressure on the team to spend in this offseason. The Marlins, as always, seem to have a great core of talent, but better complementary pieces are needed.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Ramirez and Uggla continued their slugging ways, while the successful debuts of Morrison and Stanton in the outfield corners gave fans hope for an even more complete lineup in 2011. Johnson made good on his offseason contract extension by leading the league in ERA, while Anibal Sanchez continued his comeback from shoulder surgery with a full season of health and effectiveness.

What went wrong: While ex-Marlin Miguel Cabrera was busy posting MVP-level numbers for the Tigers, the youngsters received for him in the trade have yet to grow from minnows to Marlins. Toolsy center fielder Cameron Maybin has experienced minor league success but has not been able to permanently wrest playing time from the likes of Cody Ross and Emilio Bonifacio, while lefty starter Andrew Miller is looking more and more like a lost cause.

What won't happen again: Chris Coghlan won't lose half a season to a shaving-cream-pie-related injury. Talk about your sophomore jinxes -- the 2009 Rookie of the Year started the season slowly, coming to the plate 113 times before his first extra-base hit, then tore the meniscus in his knee while "pieing" Wes Helms during a postgame interview. Next year Coghlan should be healthier, more productive and more discriminating in his celebratory activities.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Eye on the bottom line: Close attention will be paid on just how the Marlins spend their money. This was a franchise that cried poverty when negotiating a new ballpark and then reportedly turned a nice profit by pocketing its share of MLB's revenue sharing plan. Marlins president David Samson has denied any impropriety and the only way to prove that is by opening the wallet. It will start with Uggla, who is eligible for arbitration but is looking for a deal similar to the six-year, $70 million deal given to Ramirez. The Marlins have yet to budge at this point and might open up trade talks for the two-time All-Star once again. The Fish would like to sign 14-game winner Ricky Nolasco to a multiyear deal, but those talks were going nowhere as of early this month. The Marlins could be in the market for a No. 1 catcher if they decide against offering arbitration to Ronny Paulino. Yorvit Torrealba, Bengie Molina and John Buck are viable free-agent candidates, or the Fish could try to work out a deal for Washington's Ivan Rodriguez, who reportedly wants to return to South Florida. Leo Nunez has yet to prove he is a consistent closer, so the Fish could hope to land a reasonably priced deal with Brian Fuentes or Octavio Dotel.

New man at the top: There will be plenty of managerial changes this winter, and few will have as much intrigue as the Marlins, who could be waiting to see if Ozzie Guillen finally wears out his welcome on Chicago's South Side. Guillen lives in Miami and is a former Marlins coach, but his relationship with Samson could end up as turbulent as Guillen's relationship now is with Kenny Williams. Yankees bench coach Tony Pena is high on the list, but the Fish may be unwilling to wait for the Yankees' postseason to end before talking to him. Dodgers third-base coach Larry Bowa and former Mets second baseman Wally Backman are believed to be among about a dozen candidates that were being considered as of mid-September. The Marlins have not played particularly well down the stretch, likely ending any hope for interim skipper Edwin Rodriguez.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
It took a little longer than expected, but the Marlins may finally have the late-inning power arm they anticipated when acquiring Jose Ceda from the Cubs in 2008. Shoulder surgery cost him all of 2009, but he returned in June and had twice as many strikeouts (50) as hits allowed (25) in 40 1/3 minor league innings before getting called up in September. Physically resembling a young Lee Smith, Ceda's control issues have resurfaced in the big leagues, but with mid-90s heat and a devastating slider, he'll be fine in the end.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward an immediate 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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Now, it's time to kiss the Oakland Athletics goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Quite simply, Oakland's offensive attack was awful in all sorts of ways. The Athletics ranked in the bottom six in the majors in runs scored, dead last in homers and 27th in total bases. Eric Chavez never really contributed before injury forced him to considering retiring, Coco Crisp played in less than half of Oakland's games, and a number of other position players landed on the disabled list. Incredibly, no Oakland player has accumulated 150 hits, nor 35 doubles, nor 15 homers. Generally speaking, Oakland had good pitching and excellent defense, but that was all undercut far too often by a dysfunctional offense.

Dallas Braden pitched a perfect game this year, and Trevor Cahill was outstanding consistently. Gio Gonzalez developed, and overall, the Athletics' pitching staff matured into one of the best in the majors; only San Diego and San Francisco have posted lower staff ERAs than Oakland. First baseman Daric Barton is never going to be a household name because he doesn't hit home runs, but he kept his on-base percentage close to .400 all year and played some of the strongest defense seen at the position this year. Kurt Suzuki is entrenched as one of the best overall catchers in the majors, and by season's end, Brett Anderson was healthy and throwing well again.

The Athletics' need is glaring -- Oakland needs two or three good hitters to lift the team from a middle-of-the-pack .500 club into a serious contender, and in particular, the need is for somebody who can occasionally hit the ball out of the park. The easiest way for the Athletics to do this would be to dangle some of their young pitching in a possible trade, but front office folks have no intention of trading pitching; rather, they'll look to the free agent market or hope that some options develop internally.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The starting pitching was excellent -- and not a single player is over 27, so they could be a factor in the AL West for years to come. Going hand-in-hand with the pitching was an outstanding defense that leads the major leagues in Defensive Efficiency by turning 71.7 of balls in play into outs.

What went wrong: The Athletics didn't take advantage of all the good pitching because of an anemic offense that ranks 11th in the 14-team AL with an average of 4.04 runs a game. The Athletics suffered a complete power outage as none of their outfielders have reached double digits in home runs this season. Chris Carter, expected to be a future power source, went hitless in his first 35 plate appearances in the major leagues.

What won't happen again: That no Athletics outfielder will have double-digit home run totals this late in the season. Carter should provide pop and the Athletics surely will address that weakness with at least one off-season move.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Contending depth: The A's have what might ultimately be a contending starting rotation and bullpen, but it's their depth in the outfield that might give GM Billy Beane a chance to make a few winter deals. Crisp's $5.75 million option is one the club can afford to pick up but the centerfielder could also be trade bait with Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney also capable of handling the position for the green and gold. Jeremy Hermida and Gabe Gross will be arbitration eligible and could be somewhat costly, but the club has corner outfield options in their farm system, namelyCarter and Michael Taylor, giving the Athletics a chance to mix in their youth with a veteran or two. Jack Cust and Travis Buck could be roster casualties this winter, via the trade or non-tender routes.

Infield changes: With the pending free agency of Mark Ellis, the A's could have a new starting second baseman in 2011. Ellis' $6 million club option may be deemed more than reasonable, however, once the club checks the free agent market for second baseman. If they do look elsewhere, Arizona's Kelly Johnson may be on the trade block this winter, as might Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks and the Mets' Luis Castillo. Minnesota's Orlando Hudson is perhaps the best free agent at the position, but he may be prove to be too pricey for the A's which could ultimately lead them back to the 33-year-old Ellis.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After a brutal start to his big league career, Carter is finally showing why he's an important part of the Athletics' future. After leading or tying for the minor league lead in total bases in each of the last two seasons, Carter got off to a slow start at Triple-A Sacramento, but finished strong with a .319/.421/.637 line in the second half of the season. Carter should supply some (desperately-needed) power in 2011.

Now, it's time to kiss the Milwaukee Brewers goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Brewers tried to rebuild their rotation during the last off-season, signing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, but in the end, they only went as far as their pitching allowed -- and that wasn't very far. Milwaukee ranked near the bottom of the league in starters' ERA all year, and closer Trevor Hoffman struggled so badly at the outset of the season that he lost his job. The only way the Brewers and Manager Ken Macha could have overcome the problems with the pitching staff would have been to hit through them, but Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun each had seasons filled with deep valleys -- as well as some peaks -- and center fielder Carlos Gomez and shortstop Alcides Escobar struggled to contribute.

John Axford did become established in their bullpen; the power right-hander has posted 22 saves and 70 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. Casey McGehee, a third baseman cast off by the Cubs, had a good season that will likely conclude with at least 100 RBI. The final numbers for Braun and Fielder will be more than respectable, and Lorenzo Cain has looked good in his month-long audition in center field. Wolf gave the Brewers exactly what they paid for -- 200 innings and a stabilizing presence behind Yovani Gallardo, who has struck out more than a batter per inning and demonstrated that he can be a No. 1 type starter.

Moving forward, the Brewers have to find a way to get some power pitching for their starting rotation, and they must prepare to restructure their lineup for the days after Prince Fielder departs. Fielder is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and reportedly turned down a five-year, $100 million offer from the Brewers, so in all likelihood Milwaukee will look to trade Fielder for some young arms -- but trade interest in him will be mitigated by the fact that Fielde is represented by agent Scott Boras, who historically takes his players into free agency rather than working out long-term deals.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Corey Hart rebounded from two injury-filled, low-production campaigns to post his best season and earn himself a shiny new contract. Gallardo continued to look like one of the better pitchers in the NL, despite the terrible defense behind him. While Wolf began the year shaky, his second half (85.1 IP, 3.80 ERA, 7-3 record) salvaged the season and gives the Brew Crew some hope for the last two years of that three-year contract. Axford, powered by a mustache that channels Rollie Fingers, whiffed over 11 batters per nine innings and posted both an ERA and an adjusted ERA under 3.00 in his rookie season.

What went wrong: Fielder once again had a down year following a power outburst, posting his worst Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG) since 2006. Fielder has driven in just 10.7 percent of the runners on base, which ranks 237th amongst the 255 players with 300 plate appearances or more. Escobar failed to make an impact in his rookie season: his .230 TAv is right at replacement level, and the speedy shortstop has swiped just 10 bases. Outside of Gallardo and a half-season of Wolf, the rotation was a mess -- Chris Narveson looked solid at times, but Dave Bush and Manny Parra were both disasters. Parra, at this point, looks like Oliver Perez with less stamina despite flashes of brilliance. The defense was one of the worst in the majors, and there is no easy solution; improving the glove work may cost them on offense, their one bright spot.

What won't happen again: Braun's season was great, but not typical Braun -- the right-hander hit just .280/.351/.460 against southpaws on the season, after putting up a .364/.432/.708 line against them from 2007-09. He also hit worse at home than on the road, despite Miller Park favoring hitters, but anything can happen in a small sample, and both of these occurrences are most likely a blip that will be forgotten by 2011.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Pitching woes: The Brewers have made no secret of their offseason priorities. "We know we've got a problem, which is starting pitching," owner Mark Attanasio said in late August. Over $45 million in salary could be coming off the books, so there is speculation that the Brewers will try to make a major splash and find a complement to Gallardo. Attanasio would love to have Cliff Lee, but that appears too pricey. A nice alternative could be Bronson Arroyo if the Reds decline his $11 million option. The same would hold for Jeff Francis should become expendable in Colorado. There will be plenty of pressure on GM Doug Melvin if he does offer another big contract -- the Jeff Suppan deal was a bust and the first year of Wolf's deal didn't work out that well. Before the Brewers can recruit any free agents, they have to settle issues in the dugout, where manager Ken Macha is headed out the door. The buzz is that bench coach Willie Randolph may no longer be the heir apparent to Macha and that pitching coach Rick Peterson is not certain to return, even though he has a year remaining on his deal.

The Prince situation: One way to free up money for pitching would be for the Brewers to finally pull the trigger on a deal for Fielder, who hits the free agent market after the 2011 season. The Brewers were believed to be asking for two front-end starters for Fielder at the July trade deadline, and teams obviously found that price way too high. Fielder remains the Brew Crew's most marketable trade bait, and the growing consensus is that he will be actively shopped. His market could be hurt by the abundance of first baseman on the free agent market this winter. Either way, the Brewers will no longer be pursuing so many aging veterans after the likes of LaTroy Hawkins, Gregg Zaun and Jim Edmonds all broke down this season. You can also say goodbye to Trevor Hoffman now that the more affordable Axford has taken over the closer's role.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Two of the best stories in the system are spending September in the big league bullpen, as former first-round picks Mark Rogers (2004) and Jeremy Jeffress (2006) have overcome considerable adversity with breakout seasons. Rogers' long injury history is well documented, while Jeffress' problems are self-inflicted due to a number of drug-related suspensions that have him one mistake away from getting banned from the game. Moved to the bullpen and dominant this year, the Brewers are now tinkering with the idea of making him a starter again, but why take the time when shorter stints are the only time he's had success? It's like fixing something that isn't broke -- or maybe breaking it again.

Now, it's time to kiss the Los Angeles Angels goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Angels' season took a dramatic turn on May 29, when Kendry Morales broke his leg jumping on home plate after hitting a walk-off grand slam. Morales didn't play again and the Angels never recovered from a key piece of their offense, which had very little means to make up for Morales's lost production and effectively went into hibernation. Brandon Wood was never able to establish himself at third base and Jeff Mathis had a terrible season at the plate (he will finish the year with an OPS under .500). The back end of the Angels' bullpen was sometimes a puzzle, and Scott Kazmir was a disaster, amid signs that he might never have the wipeout slider he used to throw. Ultimately, Mike Scioscia's team was hampered by the production issues -- the Angels rank 26th in on-base percentage, and 11th in stolen bases (with a way-too-low success rate of 66 percent).

Jered Weaver, though, ight have had the best season that nobody knows about, striking out 229 in 217.1 innings while posting a 3.02 ERA. Ervin Santana had a good year as well, winning 17, and Dan Haren threw well after being acquired from the Diamondbacks. Torii Hunter had a solid year of production, and served the Angels well by embracing a switch to right field.

The Angels have a lot of holes to fill -- at third base, at catcher, at left field -- and beyond that, Scioscia is in need of at least one very dynamic addition for the lineup, which is why the expectation within the industy is that LAA is going to make a very strong and determined push for Carl Crawford. The Rays' left fielder would fit the Angels in so many ways, fueling their aggressive style, playing his shutdown defense in left field, and perhaps serving as the No. 3 hitter in Scioscia's lineup. This is a very different division than it was in 2007 and 2008, because of the ascension of the Rangers and Athletics, and the Angels need a big move to keep up.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Weaver completed his transformation from young pitcher with plenty of potential to legitimate ace; his strikeout rate has surged from his career level of 19 percent to a high of 26 percent in 2010. He has also walked batters and allowed home runs at a stingier rate than he ever had in the past. Combine the new level of performance with a record workload and Weaver's season becomes very impressive indeed. Santana and Joel Pio joined Weaver to constitute a strong front of the rotation.

What went wrong: The offense. Their .312 on-base is second worst in the American League. Even for a team reputed to have a small-ball philosophy, that is no way to score runs (compare their .350 OBP in 2009). Replacing Morales with Mike Napoli certainly didn't help. The difficulties weren't confined to run scoring -- the team has given 27 starts to Kazmir, who might have been the worst starting pitcher in baseball this year.

What won't happen again: A rehabilitated Juan Rivera and a returning Morales should also boost the offense. It's difficult to imagine the team further relying on Kazmir absent some evidence that he can pitch remotely like he once could, particularly given the inspired mid-season addition of Haren.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Catching on: The Angels could shop Napoli this winter after essentially removing him from their catching plans this season and going with Mathis. Problem is, Mathis is hitting under .200 for the year and has drawn just six walks versus 58 strikeouts and the club's offense is an area that GM Tony Reagins admits needs some help despite Morales' expected return from injury. The catching market may not help the Angels, unless Victor Martinez is seen as a viable option or Reagins hooks up with the Dodgers in a deal for Russell Martin, so Mathis may get another shot at the long-term gig. Hank Conger, the club's top catching prospect, could get a look after a strong 2010.

Closing time: Brian Fuentes was traded to the Minnesota Twins and Scot Shields is a free agent after showing poorly in 2010, leaving Fernando Rodney as the one returning veteran that figures to handle the late innings in Anaheim next season. Right-handers Jason Frasor, J.J. Putz and Kyle Farnsworth could be targets for such a role. But the Angels could also use Rodney in the eighth inning and make a play for a closer such as Rafael Soriano or Jon Rauch, and if the White Sox dangle Bobby Jenks on the trade market, the Angels could be a match.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
When the Angels traded Fuentes to Minnesota, it left an opening at closer, not that the left-hander was especially effective in the role himself. While Rodney has earned the save chances since the deal, next year's closer is getting his big league feet wet in the form of Jordan Walden. Converted to relief due to injury and mechanical issues, the 6-foot-5 pure power righty has been sitting at 99-100 mph while striking out 18 over his first 11.2 innings, and his fastball adds the kind of sink rarely seen with such top-notch velocity. He should enter next spring with the job his to lose, and could have the same kind of rookie impact in the bullpen that Neftali Feliz has made with the Rangers this year.

Now, it's time to kiss the Los Angeles Dodgers goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The whole baseball world knew going into the last offseason that the Dodgers, an organization which has a tremendous history of success built on starting pitching, needed a couple of veteran starters to complement Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. But with owner Frank McCourt going through a divorce, the Dodgers couldn't retain Randy Wolf and couldn't pursue any of the starters looking for multi-year deals. As a result, Los Angeles settled for Vicente Padilla, and big surprise, the Dodgers' pitching was a summer-long puzzle for Joe Torre. The Dodgers rank 13th in ERA, closer Jonathan Broxton lost his job, Manny Ramirez didn't feel compelled to earn his salary, catcher Russell Martin had another rough season, shortstop Rafael Furcal was hammered by injuries all year and there was constant tension between Matt Kemp and the Dodgers' field staff.

Kershaw has continued his climb into a top-flight starting pitcher, though, and Andre Ethier went from being a good player to something better than that. Soon enough, McCourt's divorce case should be settled, one way or another, and a storied franchise that has been dragged through an embarrassing situation should be able to move forward. Finally.

Now that Don Mattingly has taken over the team, the Dodgers need to settle the tension between Kemp and the staff, one way or the other. Either everybody has to get along or somebody needs to move on, because the front office cannot let this unneeded distraction drag down the team again. The Dodgers need starting pitching again, and the expectation is Ted Lilly is going to work out some kind of a multi-year agreement. With Ramirez gone and the McCourts' case headed toward resolution, the Dodgers should have more flexibility to address needs than they had last winter. That will be a major step forward.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Kershaw took a major step toward becoming a No. 1 starter, as he has a 2.91 ERA in 204.2 innings pitched while allowing 7.05 hits per nine innings and striking out 9.34 per nine innings. Hong-Chih Kuo became one of the dominant left-handed relievers in the game and showed he is capable of closing. He has allowed a miniscule 4.34 hits per nine innings. Hard-throwing rookie Kenley Jansen showed he could be a future closer just a year after being converted from a catcher in the minor leagues.

What went wrong: Aside from the McCourt issues, the offense was a major disappointment. The Dodgers are 13 in the 16-team National League in runs scored, and five-tool center fielder Kemp (.268 true average) has been a big part of the reason. His lackadaisical play drew the ire of general manager Ned Colletti.

What won't happen again: Martin won't have a third straight disappointing season in 2011, after posting .263 and .258 TAvs in 2009 and 2010. Martin underwent hip surgery in August, and the Dodgers are unlikely to tender him a contract, allowing him to become a free agent rather than the team going to a potential costly arbitration hearing with the two-time All-Star.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The Lilly issue: Not only is Kershaw the Dodgers' best pitcher, but he is their biggest bargain. The left-hander is not eligible for arbitration, so he will likely earn about $500,000 next season. Kershaw and Billingsley headline Mattingly's 2011 rotation for now, and the general consensus is that the Dodgers and Lilly want to continue their relationship. But the free agent market for starters is thin behind Cliff Lee, so there is a good chance at least one team will be willing to overpay for Lilly. Recent history shows the Dodgers are not afraid to walk away when it comes to starting pitching, as they did with Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf. The Dodgers will likely make a reasonable effort to re-sign Hiroki Kuroda and/or Padilla. John Ely looked like a lock for the 2011 rotation, but a late-season slide may have changed that. As for a possible bargain, why not make a pitch for Javier Vazquez, who won't be back with the Yankees and would benefit from a return to the National League?

The McCourt factor: All discussions of the Dodgers begin and end with the McCourt divorce saga. Commissioner Bud Selig is believed to be worried about the lasting damage to the image of the elite franchise and may be pressuring McCourt to settle the divorce case or sell the team. With so much financial uncertainty, the Dodgers will look to deal Martin, who could make $7 million via arbitration, but the market may be thin. Los Angeles could go with A.J. Ellis and re-sign Rod Barajas as a backup. When Mattingly was named manager, Colletti said he had no plans to "tear up" the team, but that doesn't mean he won't listen to offers for Kemp or James Loney. Kemp and manager Joe Torre didn't see eye-to-eye, so the Dodgers may be willing to have him start all over again with Mattingly.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Trayvon Robinson might be the closest player to the big leagues. A breakout player in 2009, Robinson struggled during the first half of the season, trying to hit for the kind of power that was a California League mirage last year. He developed true leadoff skills, hitting .308/.464/.453 during the second half, while showcasing more natural gap power and turning into a walking machine. With the speed to play up the middle, Robinson was once seen as a potential good fourth outfielder in 2009, but his 2010 performance has many wondering what he would do in a starting job.

Now, it's time to kiss the Boston Red Sox goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
It was as if the baseball gods broadsided the Red Sox clubhouse with a fly-swatter, given the disabled list carnage. Boston lost its two best position players, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, to season-ending injuries, and Victor Martinez went down at a time the Red Sox desperately needed him, while trying to keep pace with the Rays and Yankees. Beyond that group, Boston didn't get the expected production out of Josh Beckett, John Lackey or Daisuke Matsuzaka, who languished in mediocrity for most of the summer -- for a price of about $45 million -- and closer Jonathan Papelbon posted the worst ERA of his career, losing six games and blowing seven save chances. Boston's strength was supposed to be its pitching, and instead, the Red Sox entered the final two weeks of the season ranked 21st among 30 teams in ERA.

Clay Buchholz, though, evolved into a Cy Young caliber pitcher, teaming with Jon Lester to give Boston an excellent 1-2 righty-lefty combination at the front of its rotation. Free agent Adrian Beltre had an excellent season, and David Ortiz -- who was nearly released in May -- recovered so well that he'll finish the year with his usual 30/100 type of season. Daniel Bard became one of the most dominant set-up men in the majors, and because of the injuries, the Red Sox were able to give some young players like Ryan Kalish extensive opportunities.

The Red Sox have some extraordinarily difficult choices to make in planning for 2011, and if they get them wrong, it may be a few years before they move back into the elite teams in the AL. They could re-sign some of their free agents, but they run the risk of becoming an older, expensive team if the players they keep regress. The Red Sox have to decide whether to bring back Beltre or pursue a younger player like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, and the Red Sox need to correctly assess the futures of Matsuzaka and Papelbon, who seem to be nearing the end of their respective tenures in Boston. And above all else, the Red Sox have to have better luck in 2011, because their margin for error in the brutal AL East doesn't allow for that many DL losses.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The Sox did rank second in the AL in scoring. Beltre had an outstanding season at the plate (.320/.366/.555), Ortiz enjoyed a modest rebound (.265/.364/.527, 31 homers) and Youkilis ranked fourth in the league in True Average (.332) before his season ended due to a thumb injury. Lester reeled off an even better season than his stellar 2009, and Buchholz put together a full campaign that lived up to the hype he received as a prospect by ranking second in the league in ERA (2.33).

What went wrong: Injuries is the easy answer, but honestly, the rotation behind Lester and Buchholz was not great. Lackey (4.47 ERA, .474 SNWP) has pitched as though the minor arm woes he experienced during his final two years in Anaheim have taken their toll; his strikeout rate (6.3 per nine) is the lowest since his 2002 rookie season. Beckett (5.77, .401) and Matsuzaka (4.72, .476) both missed time due to injuries, combining for just 44 starts. Ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5.56, .390) was of absolutely no help as a rotation patch. Furthermore, Papelbon (2.1 WXRL, 4.33 Fair Run Average) put up by far his worst season as the Sox closer.

What won't happen again: The Sox are quite arguably the third-best team in baseball, or at least they were before injuries; they played .647 ball outside the division. Neither the biblical plague of injuries nor the poor-beyond-peripherals performances of their mid- and back-end starters are particularly likely to recur, and it's quite possible they'll have a new closer come springtime in Bard.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
'Werth' the price: The Red Sox will miss the playoffs for just the second time in eight seasons, but that might be due more to playing in the ultra-competitive AL East than the constant stream of injuries. GM Theo Epstein will be busy, even though the team may have maxed out at a payroll of $170 million. The lineup will undoubtedly be different with Martinez, Beltre and Ortiz hitting free agency. The belief is that the Red Sox will bring back Ortiz, either by picking up his option or working out a multiyear deal at a reduced rate. As Buster notes above, word is the Sox are already looking at both Werth and Crawford as free-agent catches. Werth seems to fit the Epstein mode perfectly since he takes a lot of pitches and is superb defensively. With the Yankees not expected to be in on Werth, the Red Sox could land him with a reasonable offer. If that is the case, Mike Cameron can become an expensive fourth outfielder.

Closing the deal: Epstein insists that Papelbon is staying put, even if the Red Sox have a viable alternative (Bard) waiting in the wings. Keeping Papelbon around for his final arbitration-eligible season gives them more options. Bard has had just one full season in the major leagues and would benefit from another year of seasoning as a set-up reliever. An intriguing question for the Red Sox will be the role of 22-year-old left-hander Felix Doubront, who was drafted and developed as a starting pitcher but worked as a reliever this summer for Boston. The bullpen ERA ranks a distant 12th in the AL, so Epstein will look for more veteran help. A solid free agent would be Jon Rauch, who filled in as the closer in Minnesota before the arrival of Matt Capps and is willing to accept a set-up role.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
While rookie Lars Anderson is getting his first taste of the big leagues, many scouts feel that Anthony Rizzo has passed him when it comes to Red Sox first base prospects and will be getting those at-bats come next year. A sixth-round pick in 2007, scouts always saw plenty of power potential in Rizzo's 220-pound frame, and it finally showed up in games this year. He led the system with 25 home runs, more than double last year's total. He sacrificed some batting average to find those home runs, but this is a common path for power prospects. If his track record of high batting averages returns in 2011 with the power intact, he has star potential.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/stlouis-cardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]

It was a strange year for Tony La Russa's team, because the Cardinals' great players mostly did great things. Albert Pujols competed for the Most Valuable Player Award again, Adam Wainwright was among the league's best pitchers, and Matt Holliday's final numbers were excellent -- but St. Louis collapsed in the last six weeks of the season.

After sweeping Cincinnati in a three-game series in early August to move into first place, the Cardinals proceeded to tumble in the standings while losing constantly to bad teams like the Pirates and Nationals. By season's end, the St. Louis roster looked very thin, with holes at third base, second, right field and the back of the rotation, and La Russa appeared to bench Colby Rasmus at a time when the Cardinals desperately needed offense.

There were positives. Jaime Garcia probably isn't going to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award, but he was probably the front-runner for most of the season. Pujols, who is now a year away from free agency, continues to post numbers that earn him a place in the statistical neighborhood inhabited only by the likes of Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. At least so far, the cash spent on Holliday is paying off.

Once again, La Russa's contract is set to expire, and he and the Cardinals need to decide whether they want another year of what has sometimes been a tense relationship. But La Russa's teams almost always compete, and he is less than two seasons away from passing John McGraw for second place all time in victories for a manager -- and in the last week of the season, the odds seemed better than 50-50 that La Russa would return. The Cardinals need a couple of inning-eaters for the back of their rotation, and they need to deal for or develop another offensive threat; too often, the Cardinals had too little support of Pujols and Holliday.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Pujols had another MVP-caliber season with a .344 true average, though he is unlikely to win the award this season because of the Cardinals' late-season fade. Holliday lived up to his $120 million contract as he has a .324 TAv. Wainwright, Carpenter and rookie left-hander Garcia combined to provide an outstanding top of the starting rotation.

What went wrong: Talented center fielder Rasmus' attitude came into question as he clashed with La Russa and asked to be traded at one point. Brad Penny suffered a season-ending torn latissimus dorsi muscle in May and the Cardinals were never able to make up for his loss in the rotation. After sweeping a three-game road series from the Reds in early August, the Cardinals collapsed and Cincinnati won the National League Central going away.

What won't happen again: Ryan Franklin has gotten by as a closer since midway through the 2008 season despite not having the ability to blow away hitters. He has struck out just 5.71 per nine innings this year. However, there will be a passing of the torch next season as Kyle McClellan is likely to be promoted from setup man to closer
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Infield Woes: Aside from another MVP-caliber season from Pujols, the Cardinals' infield has failed to produce at the plate, with the rest of the group -- at second base, shortstop and third base -- combining for just 21 home runs and 174 RBIs at this writing. If GM John Mozeliak wants to erase the deficit the Reds have placed between the two clubs this season, a big move for an infielder may be necessary. The Cardinals have less than $70 million committed to their roster for next season, which may allow Mozeliak to be a player on the free-agent market. Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy, Brandon Inge or Ty Wigginton could serve as major offensive upgrades, though Brendan Ryan's defense at short may be valued too much to replace him with a short-term risk such as Hardy. If the Diamondbacks were to make Stephen Drew available, however, the Cardinals may be a player. Adrian Beltre may be too pricey an option, but if the Florida Marlins have problems inking Dan Uggla long term, they may be able to swing a deal for the slugger and play him at second or third.

Rotation support: Aces Carpenter and Wainwright will return next spring complemented by left-hander Garcia. But with Brad Penny and Jake Westbrook hitting the open market and Kyle Lohse battling back from injury, the Cardinals lack security at the back end of their rotation, a problem that hurt them this season as much as anything else. Westbrook has pitched well since coming over from Cleveland and could be offered a deal to return, but he won't come cheap. One interesting idea for the Cards might be current Yankees right-hander Javier Vazquez, who will be a free agent this winter and has always excelled in the National League. Carl Pavano, Jeremy Bonderman and Ted Lilly could also be options, but will have numerous suitors for the Cardinals to beat out for their services.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Daniel Descalso has proved to be a capable third baseman during his brief time in the big leagues, but second base is his more natural position, and also the one where he's more valuable. He's hardly the next big thing, but he plays the position well, makes consistent contact with gap power, and is just one of those guys who helps more than he hurts. He's at least an upgrade over Skip Schumaker, but with the latter holding the title of "one of Tony La Russa's guys," Descalso's hurdles to overcome are higher than they should be.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/Chicago-White-SoxChicago White Sox goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]

The starting rotation the White Sox hoped would be dominant turned out to be much less than that. Jake Peavy struggled and then got hurt, Mark Buehrle slogged through parts of the season and Chicago finished in the bottom half of the majors in ERA. Coming off a 2009 season in which Carlos Quentin was constantly banged up, the White Sox opted to not fill the DH spot with someone like Jim Thome -- and it was a decision that came back to hurt them, because Thome had an outstanding season for the Twins, and the White Sox spent $3.8 million on Manny Ramirez to fill the DH spot in September (with virtually no return on the investment). Gordon Beckham was a victim of the sophomore jinx, and Bobby Jenks was a disaster whenever he was asked to pitch in day games.

Also, from the start of spring training right up until the final week of the season, the tempestuous relationship between GM Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen played out like an ugly reality show, involving many tweets and tweaks.

Paul Konerko merited top-five consideration for Most Valuable Player -- in the final year of his contract -- and Alex Rios lowered his hands in his swing and was greatly improved. Matt Thornton was regarded by advance scouts as one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in the game, and if the White Sox ever decide to move him -- which is unlikely at this point -- there would be a flush market for Thornton.

Guillen has indicated that he will return to the White Sox in 2011, but for sanity's sake, he and Williams need to work out their personal differences. Chicago wants to retain Konerko, but if he departs there will be a huge hole in the lineup that needs to be filled with someone like Adam Dunn. The White Sox have to hope that with an offseason of reflection and rest, Beckham gets back to being as good as everyone thinks he'll be. And it's probably time for the White Sox to decide whether they think Jenks is suitable to be their closer, or if they should spend to get someone like Rafael Soriano or make a trade for the likes of Heath Bell.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Konerko, but we'll get into that in a moment. More fundamentally, the "go for it" instinct remains alive and well in Bridgeport: Kenny Williams adapted in-season to losing Peavy by trading for Edwin Jackson in July -- at cost, since Dan Hudson is an excellent prospect -- and tried to add punch by claiming Ramirez off waivers in August. Rios bounced back from making a bad first impression, produced toward the upper range of his best possible PECOTA projections and proved to be a fine center fielder, giving the White Sox strength where they'd been weak.

What went wrong: The Twins changing the competitive level of the American League Central, for starters, because the White Sox are currently an 85- to 90-win team in a division in which that's no longer good enough. The failure to get a potent lefty-batting DH to replace Thome hurt, and adding Manny was too little too late (made worse by Manny's power not making the trip to Chicago). Beckham massively disappointed lofty expectations generated by his rookie season, but hit well enough in the second half to recapture some promise. The rotation was supposed to be the club's platform for success, but has struggled to a seventh-place tie in the AL in Support-Neutral Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR).

What won't happen again: Konerko had a career year at age 34, so enjoy this like a fine wine and then realize that nothing this good stays this good forever. (Not naturally, at any rate.) Paulie has been a White Sox stalwart for 12 years, and while he's hit more homers in some other seasons -- and hit for a higher average -- this year he set career highs in OBP, slugging, True Average (.326), Runs Above Replacement, Wins Above Replacement and more, ranking behind only the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera in the AL among first basemen in most value metrics. Konerko is headed into free agency, but whether or not the market pays him for 2010 or for a long career with a less stratospheric level of quality work will be interesting to see.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Who's on first? Konerko has been a regular on the South Side for more than a decade, but the big numbers he has put up on the field in 2010 could translate to big dollars off it. The White Sox would love to have him back but might balk at a three-year deal for a first baseman who will be 35 by Opening Day. Konerko likes playing for Guillen -- who will return in 2011 -- but so far has given no indication whether he will give the Sox a hometown discount. Dayan Viciedo will be handed the keys to first base at some point, but the 21-year-old could use more seasoning. The White Sox took plenty of heat this season for counting pennies and not bringing back Thome, so that could play into Konerko's favor. With plenty of free-agent first basemen available, GM Kenny Williams could look for a short-term deal with someone like Derrek Lee, who knows all about playing in Chicago.

Closing the deal: Guillen has never been afraid to spar publicly with Jenks, so Ozzie's decision to remain with the White Sox will only add to the speculation that Jenks will be non-tendered or traded. Chicago could also look to keep free agent J.J. Putz, who revived his career in Chicago and set a White Sox franchise record of 27 straight scoreless appearances from May 14 to July 28. Putz will not come cheaply, since several teams, such as the Braves and Diamondbacks, will be looking for closers. Even if Jenks remains, Putz has said being a full-time closer will not be the only factor in his decision. As of now, the plan is to move Chris Sale back to the starting rotation in 2011. If Peavy (shoulder surgery) returns to his old form, the Sox could be tempted to again make Sale a reliever to fortify the bullpen.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
While third baseman Brent Morel has hardly lit things up in the big leagues, he'll likely go into next spring as someone to at least get a long look, as Omar Vizquel is unlikely to be a factor, and while Mark Teahen is signed through 2012, he can't stay healthy, doesn't hit much and more importantly is a horrible defender. A third-round pick in 2008, Morel is a plus (plus-plus for some) defender with a line-drive bat who hit .322/.359/.480 at the upper levels of the system this year. With an aggressive approach and slightly below-average power, he doesn't have the secondary skills to be a star, but he should be dependable, which is more than the White Sox have gotten from the position in 2010.

Now, it's time to kiss the Colorado Rockies goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Rockies General Manager Dan O'Dowd will have a difficult task putting his finger on exactly what happened with his team, because beyond the inevitable wave of injuries that every team deals with, Colorado just did not get consistent play beyond core stars Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez. Todd Helton's OPS dropped 175 points, Chris Iannetta could never get going offensively, and even before Aaron Cook suffered a season-ending fracture, he had a terrible season. The Rockies' year really played out in a manner similar to that of the St. Louis Cardinals, with inexplicable valleys that made no sense when measured against the perceived talent level.

Tulowitzki, though, had the greatest September since Babe Ruth, Gonzalez developed into an MVP candidate, and Jimenez was the game's best pitcher for about half of the year. The Rockies also got strong performances from relievers Matt Belisle and Rafael Betancourt, and Colorado should go into next year feeling good about its bullpen corps.

Going forward, Jimenez provides a nice anchor for the Rockies' rotation, but if they don't re-sign Jorge De La Rosa -- and even if they do -- they are very much in need of another No. 2-type starting pitcher (or better). In recent years, the Rockies saw another team in their division, the Arizona Diamondbacks, wait and wait for a core of young players to get better, and the improvement never really came as expected. The Rockies have the same challenge, the same kind of decisions, as they wait to see if Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, Seth Smith and others evolve. O'Dowd is highly regarded among his peers for being smart and decisive, and it will be interesting to see if he considers moving some of his young talent in an effort to land another frontline starting pitcher.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Tulowitzki left little doubt who is the best shortstop in the game as he had a phenomenal September that left him with a .313 TAv. Gonzalez (.341 TAv) emerged as the game's likely next superstar after being traded by Arizona and Oakland. The Rockies again used Coors Field to its utmost advantage -- perhaps even fiddling around with the baseballs in the humidor -- by going 52-29 at home and leading the National League in runs scored with an average of 4.89 a game.

What went wrong: The Rockies, seemingly on their way to making a late charge to the postseason for the third time in four years, completely fell apart in the season's final two weeks and went 1-5 on their final homestand. No one in the rotation stepped forward and had a good season beyond Jimenez, who provided seven wins more than a replacement-level pitcher, according to the Baseball Prospectus metric Support-Neutral Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR). Next on the list was left-hander De La Rosa, with 2.7 victories added.

What won't happen again: Jimenez doesn't figure to be 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA at the All-Star break like he was this year. While the right-hander is very talented, he pitched well above his peripherals in the first half of the season and that created unrealistic expectations for the second half.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Another big bat: The buzz in Denver has Colorado targeting catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez. If V-Mart is too expensive, the attention could turn to Baltimore's Ty Wigginton, who thrived at Camden Yards and would do just fine at Coors Field, another hitter-friendly park. Wigginton could be part of a platoon at first base to get some time off for the oft-injured Helton. Oakland's Conor Jackson could be on the radar, since the club no longer views Seth Smith as an outfielder who can play every day.

The battery: The Rockies may be saying goodbye to a good chunk of their starting staff. De La Rosa is set to become a free agent and the team is likely to balk at a $7.5 million option for Jeff Francis. Aaron Cook is guaranteed close to $10 million next season and the Rox may look to trade the former All-Star. Catcher Miguel Olivo could test the free agent waters, but he has stated his desire to stay in Colorado. The Rockies would be in an awkward situation after signing Iannetta to a three-year, $8.35 million deal before the season. It's unlikely both backstops would be back, so the Rockies might have to deal the underperforming Iannetta at a discount. If not, the Rockies would have a backup catcher earning more than their starter.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After wasting time this year with Clint Barmes and Jonathan Herrera at second base, it might be finally time to give Chris Nelson a real shot at the job. The ninth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Nelson's minor league career is best defined by the two I-letter words -- injuries and inconsistency -- but the 25-year-old is a compact athletic with a solid approach and gap power that should fit well in Coors Field. His .313/.376/.492 line at Triple-A Colorado Spring is inflated much like the big league park, but even with adjustments, he represents a significant upgrade.

Now, it's time to kiss the San Diego Padres -- the last team to be eliminated from playoff contention -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Padres' fragile equation for success completely collapsed at season's end. San Diego blew a 6½ game lead over the San Francisco Giants because its light-hitting lineup stopped producing. The Padres averaged fewer than three runs per game during their last month of play, and their NL West edge evaporated. Everybody from Ryan Ludwick to Adrian Gonzalez stopped mashing down the stretch, especially with runners on base. Mat Latos, who had been a Cy Young Award candidate for much of the season, finished terribly with a 10.12 ERA in four September starts.

The Padres' bullpen performance was historic. Luke Gregerson set a single-season record for holds with 40, and fellow setup man Mike Adams was dominant as well. Latos pitched spectacularly for four months after shifting from one side of the rubber to the other. Before Gonzalez's late-season slide, he was an MVP candidate, holding up a lineup that finished in the bottom 10 in the majors in runs scored. Bud Black had a remarkable season managing this team and should finish in the top three for National League Manager of the Year.

The Padres were one of the best stories in the majors in 2010, but they now face very difficult personnel decisions regarding what to do with their most expensive players, Heath Bell and Gonzalez, who will be eligible for free agency after next season. Rival executives expect Padres GM Jed Hoyer to seriously weigh offers for Bell, given that Adams appears ready to take over as closer, but they also think that Hoyer is likely to hang on to Gonzalez until next summer before trading him. The slugger is in line to ask for a Mark Teixeira-like $180 million contract, so unless Gonzalez feels generous and is willing to take about half that, San Diego would seem to have no chance of re-signing him. Sadly for the Padres, they probably will not get much of an attendance bounce in 2011 from their great run in 2010 because the fan base seems skeptical about whether the team can contend annually.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The pitching was absolutely brilliant; the Padres allowed the fewest runs in the major leagues, an average of 3.60 a game. Latos developed into an ace in his first full major league season, and the Padres absolutely locked down games from the seventh inning on behind the trio of closer Bell and setup men Gregerson and Adams. Gonzalez carried the offense once again, as his team-high 58.8 value over replacement player (VORP) was more than three times that of the Padres' second-best hitter, Chase Headley (17.2).

What went wrong: Latos and fellow starters Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Correia ran out of gas in September and were generally unavailable or ineffective. The offense was a train wreck, as noted above.

What won't happen again: Bell and Gonzalez both representing the Padres at a third straight All-Star Game when the 2011 Midsummer Classic is played in Phoenix. The Padres play in one of baseball's smallest markets and have a tight budget, so they won't be able to afford to keep both high-profile players. One certainly will be traded during the winter.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Sweet sorrow: Hoyer told The Associated Press on Monday that the Padres are "a better team with [Gonzalez and Bell] than without them." Now -- on to trading them away! Well, not so fast. In the case of Bell, as Buster Olney recently told us, "If San Diego is looking to restructure its payroll, one possible way would be to insert Mike Adams at closer" -- and he certainly seems capable of filling that role. Bell could then be moved, most likely for a bat. One possibility would be trying to acquire that bat from within the NL West. Arizona's bullpen is still more noxious than the Springfield tire fire, so Bell would be an upgrade, plus the D-backs have some bats to unload. (Although if you get a bat from Arizona, expect your team strikeout total to spike.) As for Gonzalez, his $6.2 million option will be exercised, and he could be dealt anytime, but don't downplay the idea of his moving in the winter in particular. Why? Well, in December, every team is a contender, and the Padres will be able to drive a massive price for the slugger. It could be too much to pass up, knowing that even after April, some contenders for A-Gon's services will begin to fade. Don't discount the idea of a team landing Gonzalez this winter, then flipping him, such as the way the Mariners operated with Cliff Lee.

To have and to hold? Miguel Tejada's arrival in San Diego raised a lot of eyebrows, and his performance was often lauded, but people seem to overlook the heinous splits. Namely, the guy hit .205 with an equally depressing .262 on-base percentage at Petco Park. If he stays, it'll be for far less than the $6 million he pulled down this year. Chris Young's $8.5 million option is also a no-go. Here's the utterly insane figure: $1.1 million. That's the entirety of salary obligations the Padres have for next season as of this writing, and that's with (at most) seven arbitration cases pending. Regardless, this roster will look different next year, but it still will be heavy with young pitching and mere hope that better bats will arrive.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After Simon Castro pitched in the Low-A Midwest League in 2009, Double-A seemed like an aggressive assignment for him this year, but all the 22-year-old Dominican did was lead the Texas League in WHIP (1.10) and batting average against (.223) while finishing second with a 2.92 ERA. Like the Padres' major league starters, Castro throws a lot of strikes. However, unlike most in the San Diego rotation, he brings the heat, with a fastball the gets into the mid-90s. His secondary pitches still need some refinement, but he's the kind of prospect who could make a difference in the second half of 2011.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward an immediate 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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Now, it's time to kiss the Oakland Athletics goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Quite simply, Oakland's offensive attack was awful in all sorts of ways. The Athletics ranked in the bottom six in the majors in runs scored, dead last in homers and 27th in total bases. Eric Chavez never really contributed before injury forced him to considering retiring, Coco Crisp played in less than half of Oakland's games, and a number of other position players landed on the disabled list. Incredibly, no Oakland player has accumulated 150 hits, nor 35 doubles, nor 15 homers. Generally speaking, Oakland had good pitching and excellent defense, but that was all undercut far too often by a dysfunctional offense.

Dallas Braden pitched a perfect game this year, and Trevor Cahill was outstanding consistently. Gio Gonzalez developed, and overall, the Athletics' pitching staff matured into one of the best in the majors; only San Diego and San Francisco have posted lower staff ERAs than Oakland. First baseman Daric Barton is never going to be a household name because he doesn't hit home runs, but he kept his on-base percentage close to .400 all year and played some of the strongest defense seen at the position this year. Kurt Suzuki is entrenched as one of the best overall catchers in the majors, and by season's end, Brett Anderson was healthy and throwing well again.

The Athletics' need is glaring -- Oakland needs two or three good hitters to lift the team from a middle-of-the-pack .500 club into a serious contender, and in particular, the need is for somebody who can occasionally hit the ball out of the park. The easiest way for the Athletics to do this would be to dangle some of their young pitching in a possible trade, but front office folks have no intention of trading pitching; rather, they'll look to the free agent market or hope that some options develop internally.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The starting pitching was excellent -- and not a single player is over 27, so they could be a factor in the AL West for years to come. Going hand-in-hand with the pitching was an outstanding defense that leads the major leagues in Defensive Efficiency by turning 71.7 of balls in play into outs.

What went wrong: The Athletics didn't take advantage of all the good pitching because of an anemic offense that ranks 11th in the 14-team AL with an average of 4.04 runs a game. The Athletics suffered a complete power outage as none of their outfielders have reached double digits in home runs this season. Chris Carter, expected to be a future power source, went hitless in his first 35 plate appearances in the major leagues.

What won't happen again: That no Athletics outfielder will have double-digit home run totals this late in the season. Carter should provide pop and the Athletics surely will address that weakness with at least one off-season move.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Contending depth: The A's have what might ultimately be a contending starting rotation and bullpen, but it's their depth in the outfield that might give GM Billy Beane a chance to make a few winter deals. Crisp's $5.75 million option is one the club can afford to pick up but the centerfielder could also be trade bait with Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney also capable of handling the position for the green and gold. Jeremy Hermida and Gabe Gross will be arbitration eligible and could be somewhat costly, but the club has corner outfield options in their farm system, namelyCarter and Michael Taylor, giving the Athletics a chance to mix in their youth with a veteran or two. Jack Cust and Travis Buck could be roster casualties this winter, via the trade or non-tender routes.

Infield changes: With the pending free agency of Mark Ellis, the A's could have a new starting second baseman in 2011. Ellis' $6 million club option may be deemed more than reasonable, however, once the club checks the free agent market for second baseman. If they do look elsewhere, Arizona's Kelly Johnson may be on the trade block this winter, as might Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks and the Mets' Luis Castillo. Minnesota's Orlando Hudson is perhaps the best free agent at the position, but he may be prove to be too pricey for the A's which could ultimately lead them back to the 33-year-old Ellis.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After a brutal start to his big league career, Carter is finally showing why he's an important part of the Athletics' future. After leading or tying for the minor league lead in total bases in each of the last two seasons, Carter got off to a slow start at Triple-A Sacramento, but finished strong with a .319/.421/.637 line in the second half of the season. Carter should supply some (desperately-needed) power in 2011.

Now, it's time to kiss the Milwaukee Brewers goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Brewers tried to rebuild their rotation during the last off-season, signing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, but in the end, they only went as far as their pitching allowed -- and that wasn't very far. Milwaukee ranked near the bottom of the league in starters' ERA all year, and closer Trevor Hoffman struggled so badly at the outset of the season that he lost his job. The only way the Brewers and Manager Ken Macha could have overcome the problems with the pitching staff would have been to hit through them, but Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun each had seasons filled with deep valleys -- as well as some peaks -- and center fielder Carlos Gomez and shortstop Alcides Escobar struggled to contribute.

John Axford did become established in their bullpen; the power right-hander has posted 22 saves and 70 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. Casey McGehee, a third baseman cast off by the Cubs, had a good season that will likely conclude with at least 100 RBI. The final numbers for Braun and Fielder will be more than respectable, and Lorenzo Cain has looked good in his month-long audition in center field. Wolf gave the Brewers exactly what they paid for -- 200 innings and a stabilizing presence behind Yovani Gallardo, who has struck out more than a batter per inning and demonstrated that he can be a No. 1 type starter.

Moving forward, the Brewers have to find a way to get some power pitching for their starting rotation, and they must prepare to restructure their lineup for the days after Prince Fielder departs. Fielder is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and reportedly turned down a five-year, $100 million offer from the Brewers, so in all likelihood Milwaukee will look to trade Fielder for some young arms -- but trade interest in him will be mitigated by the fact that Fielde is represented by agent Scott Boras, who historically takes his players into free agency rather than working out long-term deals.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Corey Hart rebounded from two injury-filled, low-production campaigns to post his best season and earn himself a shiny new contract. Gallardo continued to look like one of the better pitchers in the NL, despite the terrible defense behind him. While Wolf began the year shaky, his second half (85.1 IP, 3.80 ERA, 7-3 record) salvaged the season and gives the Brew Crew some hope for the last two years of that three-year contract. Axford, powered by a mustache that channels Rollie Fingers, whiffed over 11 batters per nine innings and posted both an ERA and an adjusted ERA under 3.00 in his rookie season.

What went wrong: Fielder once again had a down year following a power outburst, posting his worst Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG) since 2006. Fielder has driven in just 10.7 percent of the runners on base, which ranks 237th amongst the 255 players with 300 plate appearances or more. Escobar failed to make an impact in his rookie season: his .230 TAv is right at replacement level, and the speedy shortstop has swiped just 10 bases. Outside of Gallardo and a half-season of Wolf, the rotation was a mess -- Chris Narveson looked solid at times, but Dave Bush and Manny Parra were both disasters. Parra, at this point, looks like Oliver Perez with less stamina despite flashes of brilliance. The defense was one of the worst in the majors, and there is no easy solution; improving the glove work may cost them on offense, their one bright spot.

What won't happen again: Braun's season was great, but not typical Braun -- the right-hander hit just .280/.351/.460 against southpaws on the season, after putting up a .364/.432/.708 line against them from 2007-09. He also hit worse at home than on the road, despite Miller Park favoring hitters, but anything can happen in a small sample, and both of these occurrences are most likely a blip that will be forgotten by 2011.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Pitching woes: The Brewers have made no secret of their offseason priorities. "We know we've got a problem, which is starting pitching," owner Mark Attanasio said in late August. Over $45 million in salary could be coming off the books, so there is speculation that the Brewers will try to make a major splash and find a complement to Gallardo. Attanasio would love to have Cliff Lee, but that appears too pricey. A nice alternative could be Bronson Arroyo if the Reds decline his $11 million option. The same would hold for Jeff Francis should become expendable in Colorado. There will be plenty of pressure on GM Doug Melvin if he does offer another big contract -- the Jeff Suppan deal was a bust and the first year of Wolf's deal didn't work out that well. Before the Brewers can recruit any free agents, they have to settle issues in the dugout, where manager Ken Macha is headed out the door. The buzz is that bench coach Willie Randolph may no longer be the heir apparent to Macha and that pitching coach Rick Peterson is not certain to return, even though he has a year remaining on his deal.

The Prince situation: One way to free up money for pitching would be for the Brewers to finally pull the trigger on a deal for Fielder, who hits the free agent market after the 2011 season. The Brewers were believed to be asking for two front-end starters for Fielder at the July trade deadline, and teams obviously found that price way too high. Fielder remains the Brew Crew's most marketable trade bait, and the growing consensus is that he will be actively shopped. His market could be hurt by the abundance of first baseman on the free agent market this winter. Either way, the Brewers will no longer be pursuing so many aging veterans after the likes of LaTroy Hawkins, Gregg Zaun and Jim Edmonds all broke down this season. You can also say goodbye to Trevor Hoffman now that the more affordable Axford has taken over the closer's role.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Two of the best stories in the system are spending September in the big league bullpen, as former first-round picks Mark Rogers (2004) and Jeremy Jeffress (2006) have overcome considerable adversity with breakout seasons. Rogers' long injury history is well documented, while Jeffress' problems are self-inflicted due to a number of drug-related suspensions that have him one mistake away from getting banned from the game. Moved to the bullpen and dominant this year, the Brewers are now tinkering with the idea of making him a starter again, but why take the time when shorter stints are the only time he's had success? It's like fixing something that isn't broke -- or maybe breaking it again.

Now, it's time to kiss the Los Angeles Angels goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Angels' season took a dramatic turn on May 29, when Kendry Morales broke his leg jumping on home plate after hitting a walk-off grand slam. Morales didn't play again and the Angels never recovered from a key piece of their offense, which had very little means to make up for Morales's lost production and effectively went into hibernation. Brandon Wood was never able to establish himself at third base and Jeff Mathis had a terrible season at the plate (he will finish the year with an OPS under .500). The back end of the Angels' bullpen was sometimes a puzzle, and Scott Kazmir was a disaster, amid signs that he might never have the wipeout slider he used to throw. Ultimately, Mike Scioscia's team was hampered by the production issues -- the Angels rank 26th in on-base percentage, and 11th in stolen bases (with a way-too-low success rate of 66 percent).

Jered Weaver, though, ight have had the best season that nobody knows about, striking out 229 in 217.1 innings while posting a 3.02 ERA. Ervin Santana had a good year as well, winning 17, and Dan Haren threw well after being acquired from the Diamondbacks. Torii Hunter had a solid year of production, and served the Angels well by embracing a switch to right field.

The Angels have a lot of holes to fill -- at third base, at catcher, at left field -- and beyond that, Scioscia is in need of at least one very dynamic addition for the lineup, which is why the expectation within the industy is that LAA is going to make a very strong and determined push for Carl Crawford. The Rays' left fielder would fit the Angels in so many ways, fueling their aggressive style, playing his shutdown defense in left field, and perhaps serving as the No. 3 hitter in Scioscia's lineup. This is a very different division than it was in 2007 and 2008, because of the ascension of the Rangers and Athletics, and the Angels need a big move to keep up.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Weaver completed his transformation from young pitcher with plenty of potential to legitimate ace; his strikeout rate has surged from his career level of 19 percent to a high of 26 percent in 2010. He has also walked batters and allowed home runs at a stingier rate than he ever had in the past. Combine the new level of performance with a record workload and Weaver's season becomes very impressive indeed. Santana and Joel Pio joined Weaver to constitute a strong front of the rotation.

What went wrong: The offense. Their .312 on-base is second worst in the American League. Even for a team reputed to have a small-ball philosophy, that is no way to score runs (compare their .350 OBP in 2009). Replacing Morales with Mike Napoli certainly didn't help. The difficulties weren't confined to run scoring -- the team has given 27 starts to Kazmir, who might have been the worst starting pitcher in baseball this year.

What won't happen again: A rehabilitated Juan Rivera and a returning Morales should also boost the offense. It's difficult to imagine the team further relying on Kazmir absent some evidence that he can pitch remotely like he once could, particularly given the inspired mid-season addition of Haren.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Catching on: The Angels could shop Napoli this winter after essentially removing him from their catching plans this season and going with Mathis. Problem is, Mathis is hitting under .200 for the year and has drawn just six walks versus 58 strikeouts and the club's offense is an area that GM Tony Reagins admits needs some help despite Morales' expected return from injury. The catching market may not help the Angels, unless Victor Martinez is seen as a viable option or Reagins hooks up with the Dodgers in a deal for Russell Martin, so Mathis may get another shot at the long-term gig. Hank Conger, the club's top catching prospect, could get a look after a strong 2010.

Closing time: Brian Fuentes was traded to the Minnesota Twins and Scot Shields is a free agent after showing poorly in 2010, leaving Fernando Rodney as the one returning veteran that figures to handle the late innings in Anaheim next season. Right-handers Jason Frasor, J.J. Putz and Kyle Farnsworth could be targets for such a role. But the Angels could also use Rodney in the eighth inning and make a play for a closer such as Rafael Soriano or Jon Rauch, and if the White Sox dangle Bobby Jenks on the trade market, the Angels could be a match.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
When the Angels traded Fuentes to Minnesota, it left an opening at closer, not that the left-hander was especially effective in the role himself. While Rodney has earned the save chances since the deal, next year's closer is getting his big league feet wet in the form of Jordan Walden. Converted to relief due to injury and mechanical issues, the 6-foot-5 pure power righty has been sitting at 99-100 mph while striking out 18 over his first 11.2 innings, and his fastball adds the kind of sink rarely seen with such top-notch velocity. He should enter next spring with the job his to lose, and could have the same kind of rookie impact in the bullpen that Neftali Feliz has made with the Rangers this year.

Now, it's time to kiss the Los Angeles Dodgers goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The whole baseball world knew going into the last offseason that the Dodgers, an organization which has a tremendous history of success built on starting pitching, needed a couple of veteran starters to complement Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. But with owner Frank McCourt going through a divorce, the Dodgers couldn't retain Randy Wolf and couldn't pursue any of the starters looking for multi-year deals. As a result, Los Angeles settled for Vicente Padilla, and big surprise, the Dodgers' pitching was a summer-long puzzle for Joe Torre. The Dodgers rank 13th in ERA, closer Jonathan Broxton lost his job, Manny Ramirez didn't feel compelled to earn his salary, catcher Russell Martin had another rough season, shortstop Rafael Furcal was hammered by injuries all year and there was constant tension between Matt Kemp and the Dodgers' field staff.

Kershaw has continued his climb into a top-flight starting pitcher, though, and Andre Ethier went from being a good player to something better than that. Soon enough, McCourt's divorce case should be settled, one way or another, and a storied franchise that has been dragged through an embarrassing situation should be able to move forward. Finally.

Now that Don Mattingly has taken over the team, the Dodgers need to settle the tension between Kemp and the staff, one way or the other. Either everybody has to get along or somebody needs to move on, because the front office cannot let this unneeded distraction drag down the team again. The Dodgers need starting pitching again, and the expectation is Ted Lilly is going to work out some kind of a multi-year agreement. With Ramirez gone and the McCourts' case headed toward resolution, the Dodgers should have more flexibility to address needs than they had last winter. That will be a major step forward.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Kershaw took a major step toward becoming a No. 1 starter, as he has a 2.91 ERA in 204.2 innings pitched while allowing 7.05 hits per nine innings and striking out 9.34 per nine innings. Hong-Chih Kuo became one of the dominant left-handed relievers in the game and showed he is capable of closing. He has allowed a miniscule 4.34 hits per nine innings. Hard-throwing rookie Kenley Jansen showed he could be a future closer just a year after being converted from a catcher in the minor leagues.

What went wrong: Aside from the McCourt issues, the offense was a major disappointment. The Dodgers are 13 in the 16-team National League in runs scored, and five-tool center fielder Kemp (.268 true average) has been a big part of the reason. His lackadaisical play drew the ire of general manager Ned Colletti.

What won't happen again: Martin won't have a third straight disappointing season in 2011, after posting .263 and .258 TAvs in 2009 and 2010. Martin underwent hip surgery in August, and the Dodgers are unlikely to tender him a contract, allowing him to become a free agent rather than the team going to a potential costly arbitration hearing with the two-time All-Star.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The Lilly issue: Not only is Kershaw the Dodgers' best pitcher, but he is their biggest bargain. The left-hander is not eligible for arbitration, so he will likely earn about $500,000 next season. Kershaw and Billingsley headline Mattingly's 2011 rotation for now, and the general consensus is that the Dodgers and Lilly want to continue their relationship. But the free agent market for starters is thin behind Cliff Lee, so there is a good chance at least one team will be willing to overpay for Lilly. Recent history shows the Dodgers are not afraid to walk away when it comes to starting pitching, as they did with Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf. The Dodgers will likely make a reasonable effort to re-sign Hiroki Kuroda and/or Padilla. John Ely looked like a lock for the 2011 rotation, but a late-season slide may have changed that. As for a possible bargain, why not make a pitch for Javier Vazquez, who won't be back with the Yankees and would benefit from a return to the National League?

The McCourt factor: All discussions of the Dodgers begin and end with the McCourt divorce saga. Commissioner Bud Selig is believed to be worried about the lasting damage to the image of the elite franchise and may be pressuring McCourt to settle the divorce case or sell the team. With so much financial uncertainty, the Dodgers will look to deal Martin, who could make $7 million via arbitration, but the market may be thin. Los Angeles could go with A.J. Ellis and re-sign Rod Barajas as a backup. When Mattingly was named manager, Colletti said he had no plans to "tear up" the team, but that doesn't mean he won't listen to offers for Kemp or James Loney. Kemp and manager Joe Torre didn't see eye-to-eye, so the Dodgers may be willing to have him start all over again with Mattingly.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Trayvon Robinson might be the closest player to the big leagues. A breakout player in 2009, Robinson struggled during the first half of the season, trying to hit for the kind of power that was a California League mirage last year. He developed true leadoff skills, hitting .308/.464/.453 during the second half, while showcasing more natural gap power and turning into a walking machine. With the speed to play up the middle, Robinson was once seen as a potential good fourth outfielder in 2009, but his 2010 performance has many wondering what he would do in a starting job.

Now, it's time to kiss the Boston Red Sox goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
It was as if the baseball gods broadsided the Red Sox clubhouse with a fly-swatter, given the disabled list carnage. Boston lost its two best position players, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, to season-ending injuries, and Victor Martinez went down at a time the Red Sox desperately needed him, while trying to keep pace with the Rays and Yankees. Beyond that group, Boston didn't get the expected production out of Josh Beckett, John Lackey or Daisuke Matsuzaka, who languished in mediocrity for most of the summer -- for a price of about $45 million -- and closer Jonathan Papelbon posted the worst ERA of his career, losing six games and blowing seven save chances. Boston's strength was supposed to be its pitching, and instead, the Red Sox entered the final two weeks of the season ranked 21st among 30 teams in ERA.

Clay Buchholz, though, evolved into a Cy Young caliber pitcher, teaming with Jon Lester to give Boston an excellent 1-2 righty-lefty combination at the front of its rotation. Free agent Adrian Beltre had an excellent season, and David Ortiz -- who was nearly released in May -- recovered so well that he'll finish the year with his usual 30/100 type of season. Daniel Bard became one of the most dominant set-up men in the majors, and because of the injuries, the Red Sox were able to give some young players like Ryan Kalish extensive opportunities.

The Red Sox have some extraordinarily difficult choices to make in planning for 2011, and if they get them wrong, it may be a few years before they move back into the elite teams in the AL. They could re-sign some of their free agents, but they run the risk of becoming an older, expensive team if the players they keep regress. The Red Sox have to decide whether to bring back Beltre or pursue a younger player like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, and the Red Sox need to correctly assess the futures of Matsuzaka and Papelbon, who seem to be nearing the end of their respective tenures in Boston. And above all else, the Red Sox have to have better luck in 2011, because their margin for error in the brutal AL East doesn't allow for that many DL losses.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The Sox did rank second in the AL in scoring. Beltre had an outstanding season at the plate (.320/.366/.555), Ortiz enjoyed a modest rebound (.265/.364/.527, 31 homers) and Youkilis ranked fourth in the league in True Average (.332) before his season ended due to a thumb injury. Lester reeled off an even better season than his stellar 2009, and Buchholz put together a full campaign that lived up to the hype he received as a prospect by ranking second in the league in ERA (2.33).

What went wrong: Injuries is the easy answer, but honestly, the rotation behind Lester and Buchholz was not great. Lackey (4.47 ERA, .474 SNWP) has pitched as though the minor arm woes he experienced during his final two years in Anaheim have taken their toll; his strikeout rate (6.3 per nine) is the lowest since his 2002 rookie season. Beckett (5.77, .401) and Matsuzaka (4.72, .476) both missed time due to injuries, combining for just 44 starts. Ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5.56, .390) was of absolutely no help as a rotation patch. Furthermore, Papelbon (2.1 WXRL, 4.33 Fair Run Average) put up by far his worst season as the Sox closer.

What won't happen again: The Sox are quite arguably the third-best team in baseball, or at least they were before injuries; they played .647 ball outside the division. Neither the biblical plague of injuries nor the poor-beyond-peripherals performances of their mid- and back-end starters are particularly likely to recur, and it's quite possible they'll have a new closer come springtime in Bard.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
'Werth' the price: The Red Sox will miss the playoffs for just the second time in eight seasons, but that might be due more to playing in the ultra-competitive AL East than the constant stream of injuries. GM Theo Epstein will be busy, even though the team may have maxed out at a payroll of $170 million. The lineup will undoubtedly be different with Martinez, Beltre and Ortiz hitting free agency. The belief is that the Red Sox will bring back Ortiz, either by picking up his option or working out a multiyear deal at a reduced rate. As Buster notes above, word is the Sox are already looking at both Werth and Crawford as free-agent catches. Werth seems to fit the Epstein mode perfectly since he takes a lot of pitches and is superb defensively. With the Yankees not expected to be in on Werth, the Red Sox could land him with a reasonable offer. If that is the case, Mike Cameron can become an expensive fourth outfielder.

Closing the deal: Epstein insists that Papelbon is staying put, even if the Red Sox have a viable alternative (Bard) waiting in the wings. Keeping Papelbon around for his final arbitration-eligible season gives them more options. Bard has had just one full season in the major leagues and would benefit from another year of seasoning as a set-up reliever. An intriguing question for the Red Sox will be the role of 22-year-old left-hander Felix Doubront, who was drafted and developed as a starting pitcher but worked as a reliever this summer for Boston. The bullpen ERA ranks a distant 12th in the AL, so Epstein will look for more veteran help. A solid free agent would be Jon Rauch, who filled in as the closer in Minnesota before the arrival of Matt Capps and is willing to accept a set-up role.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
While rookie Lars Anderson is getting his first taste of the big leagues, many scouts feel that Anthony Rizzo has passed him when it comes to Red Sox first base prospects and will be getting those at-bats come next year. A sixth-round pick in 2007, scouts always saw plenty of power potential in Rizzo's 220-pound frame, and it finally showed up in games this year. He led the system with 25 home runs, more than double last year's total. He sacrificed some batting average to find those home runs, but this is a common path for power prospects. If his track record of high batting averages returns in 2011 with the power intact, he has star potential.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/stlouis-cardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]

It was a strange year for Tony La Russa's team, because the Cardinals' great players mostly did great things. Albert Pujols competed for the Most Valuable Player Award again, Adam Wainwright was among the league's best pitchers, and Matt Holliday's final numbers were excellent -- but St. Louis collapsed in the last six weeks of the season.

After sweeping Cincinnati in a three-game series in early August to move into first place, the Cardinals proceeded to tumble in the standings while losing constantly to bad teams like the Pirates and Nationals. By season's end, the St. Louis roster looked very thin, with holes at third base, second, right field and the back of the rotation, and La Russa appeared to bench Colby Rasmus at a time when the Cardinals desperately needed offense.

There were positives. Jaime Garcia probably isn't going to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award, but he was probably the front-runner for most of the season. Pujols, who is now a year away from free agency, continues to post numbers that earn him a place in the statistical neighborhood inhabited only by the likes of Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. At least so far, the cash spent on Holliday is paying off.

Once again, La Russa's contract is set to expire, and he and the Cardinals need to decide whether they want another year of what has sometimes been a tense relationship. But La Russa's teams almost always compete, and he is less than two seasons away from passing John McGraw for second place all time in victories for a manager -- and in the last week of the season, the odds seemed better than 50-50 that La Russa would return. The Cardinals need a couple of inning-eaters for the back of their rotation, and they need to deal for or develop another offensive threat; too often, the Cardinals had too little support of Pujols and Holliday.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Pujols had another MVP-caliber season with a .344 true average, though he is unlikely to win the award this season because of the Cardinals' late-season fade. Holliday lived up to his $120 million contract as he has a .324 TAv. Wainwright, Carpenter and rookie left-hander Garcia combined to provide an outstanding top of the starting rotation.

What went wrong: Talented center fielder Rasmus' attitude came into question as he clashed with La Russa and asked to be traded at one point. Brad Penny suffered a season-ending torn latissimus dorsi muscle in May and the Cardinals were never able to make up for his loss in the rotation. After sweeping a three-game road series from the Reds in early August, the Cardinals collapsed and Cincinnati won the National League Central going away.

What won't happen again: Ryan Franklin has gotten by as a closer since midway through the 2008 season despite not having the ability to blow away hitters. He has struck out just 5.71 per nine innings this year. However, there will be a passing of the torch next season as Kyle McClellan is likely to be promoted from setup man to closer
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Infield Woes: Aside from another MVP-caliber season from Pujols, the Cardinals' infield has failed to produce at the plate, with the rest of the group -- at second base, shortstop and third base -- combining for just 21 home runs and 174 RBIs at this writing. If GM John Mozeliak wants to erase the deficit the Reds have placed between the two clubs this season, a big move for an infielder may be necessary. The Cardinals have less than $70 million committed to their roster for next season, which may allow Mozeliak to be a player on the free-agent market. Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy, Brandon Inge or Ty Wigginton could serve as major offensive upgrades, though Brendan Ryan's defense at short may be valued too much to replace him with a short-term risk such as Hardy. If the Diamondbacks were to make Stephen Drew available, however, the Cardinals may be a player. Adrian Beltre may be too pricey an option, but if the Florida Marlins have problems inking Dan Uggla long term, they may be able to swing a deal for the slugger and play him at second or third.

Rotation support: Aces Carpenter and Wainwright will return next spring complemented by left-hander Garcia. But with Brad Penny and Jake Westbrook hitting the open market and Kyle Lohse battling back from injury, the Cardinals lack security at the back end of their rotation, a problem that hurt them this season as much as anything else. Westbrook has pitched well since coming over from Cleveland and could be offered a deal to return, but he won't come cheap. One interesting idea for the Cards might be current Yankees right-hander Javier Vazquez, who will be a free agent this winter and has always excelled in the National League. Carl Pavano, Jeremy Bonderman and Ted Lilly could also be options, but will have numerous suitors for the Cardinals to beat out for their services.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Daniel Descalso has proved to be a capable third baseman during his brief time in the big leagues, but second base is his more natural position, and also the one where he's more valuable. He's hardly the next big thing, but he plays the position well, makes consistent contact with gap power, and is just one of those guys who helps more than he hurts. He's at least an upgrade over Skip Schumaker, but with the latter holding the title of "one of Tony La Russa's guys," Descalso's hurdles to overcome are higher than they should be.

Now, it's time to kiss the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/Chicago-White-SoxChicago White Sox goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]

The starting rotation the White Sox hoped would be dominant turned out to be much less than that. Jake Peavy struggled and then got hurt, Mark Buehrle slogged through parts of the season and Chicago finished in the bottom half of the majors in ERA. Coming off a 2009 season in which Carlos Quentin was constantly banged up, the White Sox opted to not fill the DH spot with someone like Jim Thome -- and it was a decision that came back to hurt them, because Thome had an outstanding season for the Twins, and the White Sox spent $3.8 million on Manny Ramirez to fill the DH spot in September (with virtually no return on the investment). Gordon Beckham was a victim of the sophomore jinx, and Bobby Jenks was a disaster whenever he was asked to pitch in day games.

Also, from the start of spring training right up until the final week of the season, the tempestuous relationship between GM Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen played out like an ugly reality show, involving many tweets and tweaks.

Paul Konerko merited top-five consideration for Most Valuable Player -- in the final year of his contract -- and Alex Rios lowered his hands in his swing and was greatly improved. Matt Thornton was regarded by advance scouts as one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in the game, and if the White Sox ever decide to move him -- which is unlikely at this point -- there would be a flush market for Thornton.

Guillen has indicated that he will return to the White Sox in 2011, but for sanity's sake, he and Williams need to work out their personal differences. Chicago wants to retain Konerko, but if he departs there will be a huge hole in the lineup that needs to be filled with someone like Adam Dunn. The White Sox have to hope that with an offseason of reflection and rest, Beckham gets back to being as good as everyone thinks he'll be. And it's probably time for the White Sox to decide whether they think Jenks is suitable to be their closer, or if they should spend to get someone like Rafael Soriano or make a trade for the likes of Heath Bell.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Konerko, but we'll get into that in a moment. More fundamentally, the "go for it" instinct remains alive and well in Bridgeport: Kenny Williams adapted in-season to losing Peavy by trading for Edwin Jackson in July -- at cost, since Dan Hudson is an excellent prospect -- and tried to add punch by claiming Ramirez off waivers in August. Rios bounced back from making a bad first impression, produced toward the upper range of his best possible PECOTA projections and proved to be a fine center fielder, giving the White Sox strength where they'd been weak.

What went wrong: The Twins changing the competitive level of the American League Central, for starters, because the White Sox are currently an 85- to 90-win team in a division in which that's no longer good enough. The failure to get a potent lefty-batting DH to replace Thome hurt, and adding Manny was too little too late (made worse by Manny's power not making the trip to Chicago). Beckham massively disappointed lofty expectations generated by his rookie season, but hit well enough in the second half to recapture some promise. The rotation was supposed to be the club's platform for success, but has struggled to a seventh-place tie in the AL in Support-Neutral Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR).

What won't happen again: Konerko had a career year at age 34, so enjoy this like a fine wine and then realize that nothing this good stays this good forever. (Not naturally, at any rate.) Paulie has been a White Sox stalwart for 12 years, and while he's hit more homers in some other seasons -- and hit for a higher average -- this year he set career highs in OBP, slugging, True Average (.326), Runs Above Replacement, Wins Above Replacement and more, ranking behind only the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera in the AL among first basemen in most value metrics. Konerko is headed into free agency, but whether or not the market pays him for 2010 or for a long career with a less stratospheric level of quality work will be interesting to see.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Who's on first? Konerko has been a regular on the South Side for more than a decade, but the big numbers he has put up on the field in 2010 could translate to big dollars off it. The White Sox would love to have him back but might balk at a three-year deal for a first baseman who will be 35 by Opening Day. Konerko likes playing for Guillen -- who will return in 2011 -- but so far has given no indication whether he will give the Sox a hometown discount. Dayan Viciedo will be handed the keys to first base at some point, but the 21-year-old could use more seasoning. The White Sox took plenty of heat this season for counting pennies and not bringing back Thome, so that could play into Konerko's favor. With plenty of free-agent first basemen available, GM Kenny Williams could look for a short-term deal with someone like Derrek Lee, who knows all about playing in Chicago.

Closing the deal: Guillen has never been afraid to spar publicly with Jenks, so Ozzie's decision to remain with the White Sox will only add to the speculation that Jenks will be non-tendered or traded. Chicago could also look to keep free agent J.J. Putz, who revived his career in Chicago and set a White Sox franchise record of 27 straight scoreless appearances from May 14 to July 28. Putz will not come cheaply, since several teams, such as the Braves and Diamondbacks, will be looking for closers. Even if Jenks remains, Putz has said being a full-time closer will not be the only factor in his decision. As of now, the plan is to move Chris Sale back to the starting rotation in 2011. If Peavy (shoulder surgery) returns to his old form, the Sox could be tempted to again make Sale a reliever to fortify the bullpen.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
While third baseman Brent Morel has hardly lit things up in the big leagues, he'll likely go into next spring as someone to at least get a long look, as Omar Vizquel is unlikely to be a factor, and while Mark Teahen is signed through 2012, he can't stay healthy, doesn't hit much and more importantly is a horrible defender. A third-round pick in 2008, Morel is a plus (plus-plus for some) defender with a line-drive bat who hit .322/.359/.480 at the upper levels of the system this year. With an aggressive approach and slightly below-average power, he doesn't have the secondary skills to be a star, but he should be dependable, which is more than the White Sox have gotten from the position in 2010.

Now, it's time to kiss the Colorado Rockies goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Rockies General Manager Dan O'Dowd will have a difficult task putting his finger on exactly what happened with his team, because beyond the inevitable wave of injuries that every team deals with, Colorado just did not get consistent play beyond core stars Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez. Todd Helton's OPS dropped 175 points, Chris Iannetta could never get going offensively, and even before Aaron Cook suffered a season-ending fracture, he had a terrible season. The Rockies' year really played out in a manner similar to that of the St. Louis Cardinals, with inexplicable valleys that made no sense when measured against the perceived talent level.

Tulowitzki, though, had the greatest September since Babe Ruth, Gonzalez developed into an MVP candidate, and Jimenez was the game's best pitcher for about half of the year. The Rockies also got strong performances from relievers Matt Belisle and Rafael Betancourt, and Colorado should go into next year feeling good about its bullpen corps.

Going forward, Jimenez provides a nice anchor for the Rockies' rotation, but if they don't re-sign Jorge De La Rosa -- and even if they do -- they are very much in need of another No. 2-type starting pitcher (or better). In recent years, the Rockies saw another team in their division, the Arizona Diamondbacks, wait and wait for a core of young players to get better, and the improvement never really came as expected. The Rockies have the same challenge, the same kind of decisions, as they wait to see if Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, Seth Smith and others evolve. O'Dowd is highly regarded among his peers for being smart and decisive, and it will be interesting to see if he considers moving some of his young talent in an effort to land another frontline starting pitcher.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Tulowitzki left little doubt who is the best shortstop in the game as he had a phenomenal September that left him with a .313 TAv. Gonzalez (.341 TAv) emerged as the game's likely next superstar after being traded by Arizona and Oakland. The Rockies again used Coors Field to its utmost advantage -- perhaps even fiddling around with the baseballs in the humidor -- by going 52-29 at home and leading the National League in runs scored with an average of 4.89 a game.

What went wrong: The Rockies, seemingly on their way to making a late charge to the postseason for the third time in four years, completely fell apart in the season's final two weeks and went 1-5 on their final homestand. No one in the rotation stepped forward and had a good season beyond Jimenez, who provided seven wins more than a replacement-level pitcher, according to the Baseball Prospectus metric Support-Neutral Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR). Next on the list was left-hander De La Rosa, with 2.7 victories added.

What won't happen again: Jimenez doesn't figure to be 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA at the All-Star break like he was this year. While the right-hander is very talented, he pitched well above his peripherals in the first half of the season and that created unrealistic expectations for the second half.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Another big bat: The buzz in Denver has Colorado targeting catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez. If V-Mart is too expensive, the attention could turn to Baltimore's Ty Wigginton, who thrived at Camden Yards and would do just fine at Coors Field, another hitter-friendly park. Wigginton could be part of a platoon at first base to get some time off for the oft-injured Helton. Oakland's Conor Jackson could be on the radar, since the club no longer views Seth Smith as an outfielder who can play every day.

The battery: The Rockies may be saying goodbye to a good chunk of their starting staff. De La Rosa is set to become a free agent and the team is likely to balk at a $7.5 million option for Jeff Francis. Aaron Cook is guaranteed close to $10 million next season and the Rox may look to trade the former All-Star. Catcher Miguel Olivo could test the free agent waters, but he has stated his desire to stay in Colorado. The Rockies would be in an awkward situation after signing Iannetta to a three-year, $8.35 million deal before the season. It's unlikely both backstops would be back, so the Rockies might have to deal the underperforming Iannetta at a discount. If not, the Rockies would have a backup catcher earning more than their starter.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After wasting time this year with Clint Barmes and Jonathan Herrera at second base, it might be finally time to give Chris Nelson a real shot at the job. The ninth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Nelson's minor league career is best defined by the two I-letter words -- injuries and inconsistency -- but the 25-year-old is a compact athletic with a solid approach and gap power that should fit well in Coors Field. His .313/.376/.492 line at Triple-A Colorado Spring is inflated much like the big league park, but even with adjustments, he represents a significant upgrade.

Now, it's time to kiss the San Diego Padres -- the last team to be eliminated from playoff contention -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Padres' fragile equation for success completely collapsed at season's end. San Diego blew a 6½ game lead over the San Francisco Giants because its light-hitting lineup stopped producing. The Padres averaged fewer than three runs per game during their last month of play, and their NL West edge evaporated. Everybody from Ryan Ludwick to Adrian Gonzalez stopped mashing down the stretch, especially with runners on base. Mat Latos, who had been a Cy Young Award candidate for much of the season, finished terribly with a 10.12 ERA in four September starts.

The Padres' bullpen performance was historic. Luke Gregerson set a single-season record for holds with 40, and fellow setup man Mike Adams was dominant as well. Latos pitched spectacularly for four months after shifting from one side of the rubber to the other. Before Gonzalez's late-season slide, he was an MVP candidate, holding up a lineup that finished in the bottom 10 in the majors in runs scored. Bud Black had a remarkable season managing this team and should finish in the top three for National League Manager of the Year.

The Padres were one of the best stories in the majors in 2010, but they now face very difficult personnel decisions regarding what to do with their most expensive players, Heath Bell and Gonzalez, who will be eligible for free agency after next season. Rival executives expect Padres GM Jed Hoyer to seriously weigh offers for Bell, given that Adams appears ready to take over as closer, but they also think that Hoyer is likely to hang on to Gonzalez until next summer before trading him. The slugger is in line to ask for a Mark Teixeira-like $180 million contract, so unless Gonzalez feels generous and is willing to take about half that, San Diego would seem to have no chance of re-signing him. Sadly for the Padres, they probably will not get much of an attendance bounce in 2011 from their great run in 2010 because the fan base seems skeptical about whether the team can contend annually.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The pitching was absolutely brilliant; the Padres allowed the fewest runs in the major leagues, an average of 3.60 a game. Latos developed into an ace in his first full major league season, and the Padres absolutely locked down games from the seventh inning on behind the trio of closer Bell and setup men Gregerson and Adams. Gonzalez carried the offense once again, as his team-high 58.8 value over replacement player (VORP) was more than three times that of the Padres' second-best hitter, Chase Headley (17.2).

What went wrong: Latos and fellow starters Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Correia ran out of gas in September and were generally unavailable or ineffective. The offense was a train wreck, as noted above.

What won't happen again: Bell and Gonzalez both representing the Padres at a third straight All-Star Game when the 2011 Midsummer Classic is played in Phoenix. The Padres play in one of baseball's smallest markets and have a tight budget, so they won't be able to afford to keep both high-profile players. One certainly will be traded during the winter.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Sweet sorrow: Hoyer told The Associated Press on Monday that the Padres are "a better team with [Gonzalez and Bell] than without them." Now -- on to trading them away! Well, not so fast. In the case of Bell, as Buster Olney recently told us, "If San Diego is looking to restructure its payroll, one possible way would be to insert Mike Adams at closer" -- and he certainly seems capable of filling that role. Bell could then be moved, most likely for a bat. One possibility would be trying to acquire that bat from within the NL West. Arizona's bullpen is still more noxious than the Springfield tire fire, so Bell would be an upgrade, plus the D-backs have some bats to unload. (Although if you get a bat from Arizona, expect your team strikeout total to spike.) As for Gonzalez, his $6.2 million option will be exercised, and he could be dealt anytime, but don't downplay the idea of his moving in the winter in particular. Why? Well, in December, every team is a contender, and the Padres will be able to drive a massive price for the slugger. It could be too much to pass up, knowing that even after April, some contenders for A-Gon's services will begin to fade. Don't discount the idea of a team landing Gonzalez this winter, then flipping him, such as the way the Mariners operated with Cliff Lee.

To have and to hold? Miguel Tejada's arrival in San Diego raised a lot of eyebrows, and his performance was often lauded, but people seem to overlook the heinous splits. Namely, the guy hit .205 with an equally depressing .262 on-base percentage at Petco Park. If he stays, it'll be for far less than the $6 million he pulled down this year. Chris Young's $8.5 million option is also a no-go. Here's the utterly insane figure: $1.1 million. That's the entirety of salary obligations the Padres have for next season as of this writing, and that's with (at most) seven arbitration cases pending. Regardless, this roster will look different next year, but it still will be heavy with young pitching and mere hope that better bats will arrive.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
After Simon Castro pitched in the Low-A Midwest League in 2009, Double-A seemed like an aggressive assignment for him this year, but all the 22-year-old Dominican did was lead the Texas League in WHIP (1.10) and batting average against (.223) while finishing second with a 2.92 ERA. Like the Padres' major league starters, Castro throws a lot of strikes. However, unlike most in the San Diego rotation, he brings the heat, with a fastball the gets into the mid-90s. His secondary pitches still need some refinement, but he's the kind of prospect who could make a difference in the second half of 2011.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward a potential 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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Now, it's time to kiss the Minnesota Twins -- the first playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Manager Ron Gardenhire went into the press room after the Twins were eliminated and mentioned that in spite of the nine straight losses to the Yankees in the postseason, he didn't feel as if the Twins were dominated; there were spots within all the games in the AL Division Series when Minnesota could have taken control of a given game with a timely swing (Jason Kubel, Game 3) or pitch (Carl Pavano, Game 2). But in the end, the Twins went down again, partly because they were banged up -- Joe Mauer and Jim Thome appeared to be nursing injuries, at a time when Minnesota was without Justin Morneau -- and partly because of their lack of power pitching. The Yankees saw 68 pitches in Game 3 before one of them swung and missed, and that lack of stuff in the Twins' rotation has been a recurring problem in October.

Starter Francisco Liriano ran out of gas at the end of the regular season, but during the summer, he had a Cy Young-caliber performance. Left fielder Delmon Young had an excellent rebound season after getting himself in better shape, and Danny Valencia was a revelation at third base with his offensive and defensive production. And Thome mashed 25 homers, edging closer to 600 for his career.

The Twins expect Morneau to recover from his concussion and return to his All-Star form, and the backbone of what should be another AL Central contender will be in place. But Minnesota has to hope that Joe Nathan can recover from Tommy John surgery to be at least a plus for the bullpen, and if the Twins aren't able to re-sign Pavano as a free agent, they'll need to add at least one front-line starting pitcher. Already there is speculation in Minnesota that the Twins could be well-positioned to pursue Zack Greinke -- who would fit the Twins' market -- if the Royals make the right-hander available.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Mauer ended the suspense about whether he would be a lifelong Twin by signing an eight-year, $184 million contract that will keep him in his native Minnesota through the 2018 season. Liriano finally regained the dominating form he showed before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2006 by striking out 9.44 batters per nine innings and allowing just 0.42 home runs per nine. Thome provide a full season's worth of production in 340 plate appearances as he had a 1.039 OPS, a .350 true average and 25 home runs even though Target Field proved to be a pitcher's park in its inaugural season.

What went wrong: The Twins have lost 12 straight postseason games, all to the Yankees in the ALDS round, leaving them one short of the all-time record set by the Red Sox from 1986-95. Morneau was leading the majors with a .360 true average when he suffered a season-ending concussion on July 7. The Twins' .693 defensive efficiency ranked a very ordinary eighth in the AL; they were particularly weak in the outfield.

What won't happen again: The Twins won't get swept in the ALDS by the Yankees. Sooner or later, the laws of averages have to kick in.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Funds: The Twins spent around $100 million on payroll this season, but their commitments for 2011 -- about $72 million to eight players -- may make it difficult to add an impact player over the winter. Kubel's $5.25 million option appears affordable and a relative bargain, but the arbitration cases for Young, Denard Span, Liriano and J.J. Hardy could push the Twins to trade one or more of them to keep their payroll from reaching levels the organization does not wish to handle. General manager Bill Smith will have to find a second baseman to replace Orlando Hudson or spend the money to bring him back, and the club's bullpen may need some help since Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes are hitting free agency. One idea is to try to move Young, who had a breakthrough season in 2010 and could make as much as much as $5 million via arbitration this winter.

Help for Francisco: Considering the issues Smith may have in patching up the bullpen and finding an infield to play regularly with Morneau next season, it may be extremely difficult for the Twins to put together a starting rotation that figures to compete for the division title. Liriano was backed in 2010 by free-agent-to-be Pavano, but the right-hander may have priced himself out of Minnesota with a strong year. The Twins have Kyle Gibson in the minors near-ready for the show, and Scott Baker has always been a reliable mid-rotation arm, but Smith's creativity may be put on display this winter in an attempt to strengthen the club's greatest postseason weakness. Perhaps giving up Young and a pitching prospect for an arm such as Jonathan Sanchez of the San Francisco Giants could work for both clubs.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Twins' top prospects are mostly too young to contribute in 2011, but after trading for Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps to shore up the bullpen for this year's stretch run, there's some help coming from within. A 39th-round draft pick in 2006, Anthony Slama has continued to prove all doubters wrong with a career rate of 12.5 strikeouts per nine. Those who felt he'd be exposed at the upper levels looked foolish after his 2.20 ERA at Triple-A Rochester in 2010 (including 74 whiffs in 65. 1 innings while limiting International League hitters to a .178 batting average). Like most Twins' pitchers, he's more polish than stuff, as he uses a deceptive delivery that allowed his low-90s two-seam fastball and solid slider to play up. While he's unlikely to close in the big leagues, he could get big outs in the seventh and eighth innings.

Now, it's time to kiss the Cincinnati Reds -- the second playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Reds, a team with a lot of young players, ran into the National League's buzz saw in the first round. The Philadelphia Phillies were locked and loaded as the series began, and in four days, the Reds became the second team in history to be no-hit in a postseason game -- at the hand of Roy Halladay -- before being completely dominated by Cole Hamels. Cincinnati simply didn't have the pitching to match up with the Phillies.

Still, the Reds constructed a solid group of pitchers who proved to be the backbone of a team that surprised others in the NL Central, with Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood and Mike Leake supporting Bronson Arroyo. The Reds scored more runs than every other team in the National League, led by likely MVP Joey Votto, and they fielded an excellent defensive team with Gold Glove candidates at third base (Scott Rolen), first base (Votto), second base (Brandon Phillips) and right field (Jay Bruce). The Reds also indoctrinated the most electric left-handed talent, with the ascension of Aroldis Chapman, whose fastball was clocked as high as 105 mph. The Reds do not have the look of a one-year wonder.

Volquez improved dramatically as he came back from Tommy John surgery, and if the Reds are going to repeat as division champs, they need Volquez and Cueto to continue to improve. The Reds have to decide whether to bring back veterans at key defensive positions, catcher Ramon Hernandez and shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Cincinnati struggled to get consistent production from its left fielders; the Reds will need more from that position. This is a good team that could get better in 2011.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The Reds broke a long cycle of losing as they won their first division title since 1995 and posted their first winning season since 1999. The hitting was reminiscent of the Big Red Machine; they won the NL team Triple Crown for the first time since 1976. Votto emerged as the likely MVP after battling depression for much of the 2009 season, posting a league-leading .350 true average. Rolen found new life at age 35 as he was six wins above a replacement player, his best season since 2004. The Reds' .704 defensive efficiency (number of batted balls turned into outs) was second in the NL.

What went wrong: Pitching has long been the Reds' soft spot, and it was again even in a division-winning season, as they were seventh in the NL in runs allowed. Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake and Homer Bailey all have plenty of talent, but none has turned into a top-of-the-rotation starter yet. Closer Francisco Cordero was erratic and only one win above a replacement reliever. The jitters of a young team in which 19 of the 25 players on the roster were playing in the postseason for the first time showed, as the Reds made seven errors in three games while being swept by the Phillies.

What won't happen again: Aaron Harang starting for a sixth consecutive Opening Day. The Reds won't exercise the $12.75 million club option in his contract after an injury-plagued season and with some many outstanding young arms on the roster.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Keeping it together: The Reds' young core of players are beginning to approach more expensive times, including first baseman Votto and right-handers Volquez and Cueto, all of whom are arbitration-eligible in the winter. This could be a bit of a problem for the club, which has just more than $50 million guaranteed to seven players, if Arroyo is included; GM Walt Jocketty said last week that the veteran's 2011 option would be picked up. Unless the ownership approves a rather large increase in payroll from the $75 million range it paid out in 2010 -- and the Reds' attendance, notwithstanding a division title, ranked No. 20 in baseball, lending the organization little aid on the financial front -- the Reds may have to get creative to add impact talent and fill out their roster. We've noted at Rumor Central that catcher Ramon Hernandez could fit into the club's plans for next season despite his option failing to vest, otherwise creating yet another hole for the club to fill via trade or free agency, but Jocketty & Co. have decisions to make on shortstop Cabrera ($4 million mutual option), Hernandez and right-hander Harang.

Sorting out the staff: With Chapman potentially joining the starting rotation next season, the Reds may have a surplus of starters who could make for valuable trade bait. Although several teams are likely to be on the prowl for upgrades at shortstop, Cincinnati may have the trade juice to land a player such as Stephen Drew. Juan Uribe could be one free-agent option Jocketty looks into, and if J.J. Hardy is nontendered by the Minnesota Twins, he could be a fit with the Reds. Much of the available payroll space may be spent on retaining and adding to the relief corps, where free agents such as Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, J.J. Putz and Jason Frasor could team with Cordero to slam the door on opponents in high-leverage situations. Chapman's role could dictate quite a bit, however, so until the Reds make a decision, their plans may remain incomplete.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft, Devin Mesoraco, was already seen as a bust by many coming into the year. Injuries and a lack of conditioning had led to a career batting line of .240/.311/.368 (average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with scouting reports that were as disappointing as the numbers. The Punxsutawney, Pa., native showed up in camp this spring in the best shape of his life, and all of a sudden, he's the front-line catcher the Reds thought they selected three years ago. Beginning the year at High-A and moving across three levels to Triple-A, the 22-year-old hit a whopping .302/.377/.587 with 26 home runs (his previous career high was nine) in 397 at-bats while gunning down 41 percent of runners attempting to steal. With Hernandez a possible free agent in the offseason, Mesoraco's time could come as early as mid-2011.

Now, it's time to kiss the Atlanta Braves -- the third playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Braves appeared to be running away with the NL East in August, but a series of injuries -- most notably to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado -- greatly diminished their offense by the time the postseason began. Despite a tremendous pitching staff of starters and relievers, the Braves went into their playoff series with almost no margin for error because of their offensive shortcomings, and time and again in the series against San Francisco, they kicked the ball around.

Jason Heyward broke into the big leagues and turned out to be everything that scouts thought he would be, and more; his defense and baserunning skills turned out to be even better than expected. Jonny Venters was switched from starter to reliever and became a dominant setup man, and at season's end, Craig Kimbrel demonstrated the kind of skill set needed to close games. Tim Hudson was named the National League's Comeback Player of the Year, pitching at a Cy Young caliber for most of the year, and at year's end, Derek Lowe had his best month, posting a 1.17 ERA in September. Prado ranked among the majors' leaders in hits until he was taken down by injuries late in the season. Braves GM Frank Wren did excellent work in piecing together a solid bench for his manager, in Bobby Cox's last year.

The playoffs illuminated the reality that the Braves need another bopper for their lineup. Maybe that could be Jones, who intends to come back from a knee reconstruction, or maybe Heyward will evolve from an on-base machine into an Albert Pujols-like threat next year. But what Wren might need to do, for Fredi Gonzalez's first year as manager, is to add an impact bat, perhaps in the outfield. With Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Lowe and what should be a good bullpen -- assuming that either Kimbrel or Venters or somebody else can replace Billy Wagner -- the Braves might have the pitching depth to consider trading Jair Jurrjens for the hitter that they need.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Despite injuries, the Braves finished third in the National League in true average thanks to good years from rookie Heyward (.303), catcher Brian McCann (.294) and Prado (.286). Jones, that old standby, was productive in his 381 plate appearances, and Omar Infante performed well at multiple positions while filling in for the various injured infielders. The bullpen was deep, with offseason acquisitions Wagner and Takashi Saito supported by rookies Venters and closer-of-the-future Kimbrel. Hudson (3.70 SIERA), Hanson (3.74) and Lowe (3.74) formed a potent top of the rotation that made up for instability at the back end and helped the club reach the postseason for the first time since 2005.

What went wrong: Jurrjens was put on the DL early in the season and never recovered his 2009 form on the mound. Kenshin Kawakami also failed to stick in the rotation and posted the highest ERA and SIERA of any Braves starter with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. Jesse Chavez cost the bullpen with a sub-replacement performance, and the reliever he was dealt for, Kyle Farnsworth, performed just as poorly for Atlanta. Injuries to Jones and Prado thinned the team's depth and forced Brooks Conrad to pick up more playing time than he should have, given his glove that cost the Braves dearly in their loss to the Giants in the National League Division Series. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez (.240/.291/.386) failed to make an impact after his summer acquisition, and both middle infielders that the Braves disposed of (shortstop Yunel Escobar and second baseman Kelly Johnson) performed well with their new teams. Center field was a vortex of awful all year long, with the Braves getting a .232/.329/.339 line from the position.

What won't happen again: It will be difficult for the Braves to perform worse in center field than they did in 2010. Nate McLouth should rebound somewhat from an awful season, and keeping Cabrera away from the position would also help.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
King of the hill: One reason Bobby Cox stuck around as long as did was consistent starting pitching, and new skipper Gonzalez will inherit a solid staff. All the current starters are under control for 2011, a list that includes Hudson, Lowe, Hanson, Jurrjens and either Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy. Jurrjens is scheduled to undergo knee surgery and be healthy by spring training. The Braves are not afraid to shake things up -- they openly shopped Lowe and ended up shipping Javier Vazquez to the Yankees last winter. If GM Frank Wren is daring, he could get a top-notch center fielder in exchange for one of the young arms. With Lowe's contract down to $30 million, the Braves should be inclined to keep him, unless another team is willing to absorb a bulk of the deal. Kawakami is owed $6.67 million for 2011 and the Braves would be ecstatic if the ineffective right-hander returned to Japan.

The CF issue: All is well in right field, even if Heyward experienced some growing pains in the NLDS. Who plays next to the star rookie is an open question. Braves center fielders ranked 29th in the majors in batting average (.232) and 28th in RBI (4. McLouth, a 2008 All-Star, looked better late in the season after a dismal start. The Braves could be in the mix for the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus, who may have worn out his welcome in St. Louis , particularly if Tony La Russa decides to come back. As for third base, Jones is hinting that he will be healthy again in 2011. The Braves will look for some veteran insurance so Prado, coming off an injury, can return to second. One option is Geoff Blum, who will not be back in Houston .
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
While injuries hampered the Braves' rotation down the stretch and into the postseason, it should not be an issue in the long term. Few organizations can match Atlanta when it comes to potential starting pitchers. The biggest prize of all is Colombian righty Julio Teheran. Signed in 2007 to an $850,000 bonus, the 19-year-old entered the year with just seven full-season starts under his belt, and finished the season at Double-A, compiling a 2.59 ERA across three levels while striking out 159 batters in just 142. 2 innings. The scary part? Some think he's just scratching the surface of his potential; he already has a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a plus curve, a solid change and above-average control, and there's enough projection that some feel he's the best pitching prospect in the game.

Now, it's time to kiss the Tampa Bay Rays -- the fourth playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
For a team that accomplished what it did -- Tampa won perhaps the toughest division baseball has seen since it split into three per league, only Cliff Lee's presence got in the way of a real shot at a World Series title -- the overriding feeling in the Tampa clubhouse after the season ended had to be regret.

Executives and scouts across baseball this season believed that in terms of pure talent, if not experience, Tampa is one of the great collections the game has seen in recent years. And it could have led to more. Still, led by the brilliant David Price, the Rays will be back. But in what form? Changes loom. Price and the other Rays will not have Carl Crawford, who will become the most coveted free-agent position player next month. They will not have Rafael Soriano, who will become the most sought-after reliever, or Carlos Pena, who has been a crucial member of the Tampa Bay lineup, even amidst some obvious struggles. The Rays are slashing payroll -- currently at a hair over $72 million -- by about 25 percent. Because of that, there's a melancholy feeling surrounding the organization right now, which, while obviously tied to the disappointment of the recent series loss, overlooks one thing ...

... the talent still there, and the talent still emerging.

Top prospects Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson will climb into the majors next summer and have a real shot to fill the gaps in terms of what the Rays won't get out of Crawford and another starter if one is to depart, perhaps by trade. And even after years of promotions that have turned to gold at the major league level, after those two come up, the system still isn't bare. But the fact is the Tampa Bay front office -- which has done an incredible job over the past six years -- will have a very, very difficult time ever putting together a group with as much talent and depth as the Rays have had the past couple of years.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Despite a .247 batting average that ranked 13th in the American League, the Rays had the No. 4 offense in the league (and No. 6 in the majors) in true average (TAv). Evan Longoria (.306 TAv) and Crawford (.301) led the charge, while B.J. Upton contributed on both sides of the ball as an above-average hitter for a center fielder who also owns one of the best gloves at the position. Rookie catcher John Jaso made everyone forget about the awfulness that was Dioner Navarro's 2009. Jaso was one of just three AL rookies with 400 or more plate appearances and finished with a .280 TAv. Price emerged as a front-line starter, and though the Cy Young talk is a bit premature, he turned the corner the Rays needed in order for him to lead their staff. Matt Joyce, Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez weren't full-time players, but the three combined for 5.8 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 965 plate appearances -- these three symbolize the Rays' method of playing matchups and putting the best possible lineup out every night. Soriano and Joaquin Benoit combined for around nine wins over replacement and were one of the most effective one-two punches out of the bullpen in the game after being acquired over the winter.

What went wrong: James Shields was unlucky, but the results were poor regardless; despite a SIERA of 3.57, the long ball caused him to post an ERA of 5.18. The Rays had what was essentially a three-man bullpen all year long due to the injury to J.P. Howell -- acquiring Chad Qualls at the trade deadline was a high-upside move, but it didn't pay off on a high-impact level as he was mediocre in a Rays uniform. The rotation began the year strong, but outside of Price none of the starters could be labeled as dominant -- Wade Davis recovered from his struggles with homers, but 113 strikeouts in 168 innings was not what people had in mind after his 2009 teaser. The DH slot was an issue almost all season, as Pat Burrell and Hank Blalock failed to produce before the Rays finally settled on Dan Johnson for 140 plate appearances late in the season.

What won't happen again: Crawford and Pena won't be in the lineup and Soriano won't be in the 'pen, as all three will depart via free agency with the Rays going into cost-cutting mode.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Replacing free agents: Pena and Crawford can be replaced with a few smart moves and some player development. The club's farm system could produce some help, namely Jennings, and the depth of the Rays' organization could support a blockbuster trade by GM Andrew Friedman to acquire another bat or bullpen help -- or both. Upton could be the subject of trade talks, as the Rays may not want to wait any longer for the 26-year-old to become a consistent performer. At least a dozen clubs figure to have interest in Upton should the Rays make him available, including the Atlanta Braves, who may be able to offer a big-league ready first baseman in Freddie Freeman as part of a package deal.

Still armed and dangerous: The Rays could stand pat with their pitching staff in protective mode, as clubs never feel like they have enough pitching. But it's also the organization's greatest strength and may be their best shot at filling some holes on their 25-man roster, including left field, first base, the bullpen and potentially catcher. To save some money, right-handers Shields and Matt Garza could be made available this winter, as both are eligible for salary arbitration. Hellickson showed he was ready to jump into the rotation and could be penciled into the rotation heading into spring training, allowing the Rays to absorb the loss of either veteran. Friedman and skipper Joe Maddon may decide that one way to help their bullpen is to transition Jeff Niemann into a relief role, where he may profile best anyway. It'd be a bit surprising to many if the Rays didn't make a bold move or two this offseason, however, and unless it's Upton, it probably means a starting pitcher will be the centerpiece.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Game 5 loss to the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series meant the end of Crawford's tenure with the Rays, as the outfielder leaves as the franchise's all-time leader in countless offensive categories. Entering the year, Desmond Jennings was seen as the surefire replacement for Crawford in 2011. While the job is still Jennings' to lose, after a so-so year at Triple-A Durham, plenty of questions remain. His .278/.362/.393 line is hardly one that screams future greatness, and the .198 batting average against lefties is cause for real concern. He's as fast as, if not faster than, Crawford, and with a patient approach his skill set will give Tampa Bay a more traditional leadoff man. Yet after looking like he could be just as productive as their departing All-Star, it appears more and more like the Rays will miss Crawford next year more than they initially anticipated.

Now, it's time to kiss the New York Yankees -- the losers of the ALCS -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Yankees were outplayed as thoroughly by the Texas Rangers in the American League Championship Series as in any of New York's postseason series in years; the one-sided nature and lack of production was along the lines of the 1963 World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manager Joe Girardi drew criticism for several crucial decisions -- most notably for leaving A.J. Burnett in deep into the sixth inning of Game 4 -- but all along, the Yankees operated under very little margin for error because of the stagnant offense. Some of the team's oldest stars -- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada -- looked ineffective and old, especially against the younger and more vibrant Rangers.

The Yankees, though, were arguably baseball's best team for much of the summer, lifted by an offense that led the majors in runs and a rotation that began fraying only at season's end. Robinson Cano likely will finish in the top three for the American League Most Valuable Player award, and CC Sabathia will probably receive votes for the AL Cy Young Award. Mariano Rivera had one of the best regular-season performances of his career, and Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson shrugged off slumps to post good overall numbers. Rodriguez mashed his 600th career homer, and Phil Hughes became an All-Star for the first time.

The Yankees expect to retain Girardi and Rivera through seamless negotiations. The contract talks with Jeter are going to be a little more complicated, because the Yankees are expected to offer him a pay cut, at age 36, and it remains to be seen whether the talks between the shortstop and the team will get ugly. The Yankees' priority will be to pursue the pitcher they have coveted for a couple of years, Cliff Lee, but already there is some sense within the organization that if the Rangers take the bidding into the $130 million to $150 million range, the Yankees might pursue another avenue for making their pitching better -- by investing in the much younger Carl Crawford, a shutdown defender whose skills would fit Yankee Stadium perfectly. The Yankees may also decide to take Posada out of his role as the everyday catcher for the first time in more than a decade, instead shifting him into more of a designated hitter.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: They fielded the league's best lineup, posting a .273 true average (TAv), and adding Granderson to the outfield was not just a matter of adding another salary -- they also got a boost in park adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE), finishing second in the league in team defense behind the Rangers. Starring this time around in an All-Star-studded lineup was Cano, who posted career highs in homers (29) and slugging (.534), walks (57) and OBP (.381), and his first season with a TAv above .300, all in his age-27 season, smack dab in the 25-29 range when most hitters reach peak performance. The bullpen was already a strong unit before the acquisition of Kerry Wood, but adding the former Cubs great gave Rivera the setup stud he'd lacked since Joba Chamberlain's career died its death by a thousand midge bites.

What went wrong: Javier Vazquez, the biggest of their offseason big-ticket pickups, massively disappointed expectations. But after his first failure in pinstripes in 2004, the Yankees can't pretend they didn't have previous experience with that. Moving back to the toughest division in the DH league, he posted his worst season since his first spin in the Bronx, worse even than the years in Chicago that used to drive Ozzie Guillen to distraction. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Vazquez was merely the poster boy for a disappointing rotation that, for its $64 million price tag, ranked just ninth in the league and 20th overall in support-neutral value. Signing Nick Johnson was a worthwhile risk for stocking the team's DH slot, but his latest run-in with injury left them short-handed, which trading for Lance Berkman didn't fix.

What won't happen again: Vazquez in pinstripes, and not just because he was a one-year rental who flopped, again. This creates the obvious expectation that his slot will be filled by some other major big-ticket addition. We'll have to see whether GM Brian Cashman takes the direct course and starts and ends his shopping list with Lee (that's what he should do) or does as he did in acquiring Vazquez and shops around on other people's rosters.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The Lee effect: The postseason legend of Lee went up a few notches this October and no team knows that more than the Yankees, who, barring a major change of course, will make a serious pitch for the free-agent left-hander. The seven-year, $161 million deal for Sabathia will be a benchmark for discussion, but it remains to be seen just how high the Bronx Bombers will go. Lee has kept his poker face regarding next season, so we really don't know if he is willing to give a hometown discount to stay in Texas. With Burnett's career headed south and the future of Andy Pettitte uncertain, finding a veteran starter is a necessity. If Lee goes elsewhere, a fallback option could be Jorge De La Rosa, who appears to be in no rush to re-sign with the Rockies and may be waiting to see if the Lee-to-the-Yankees talks fall apart. The willingness to give up top prospect Jesus Montero in a failed attempt to land Lee over the summer shows that the Yankees remain willing to think big under the Hal Steinbrenner regime. Signing a top-level free-agent outfielder such as Crawford would seem to be overly ambitious, but never count the Yankees out, particularly if the Red Sox are seriously involved. There is talk that the Yankees could pursue Jayson Werth if they decide to trade right fielder Nick Swisher.

The Big Three: The Yankees said in March they wouldn't discuss contract extensions with Jeter, Rivera and Girardi until after the season, and they stayed true to their word. The most fascinating of those discussions involves Jeter, whose 10-year, $189 million deal comes to a close. Jeter may be a franchise icon, but he needs the Yankees as much as the Yankees need him. He is a 36-year-old shortstop with declining offensive numbers, meaning his best offer will undoubtedly come from the Yankees, who will reward him for past performance. At some point, they must decide if Jeter will move off shortstop, but all indications are that nothing is planned for 2011. The issue is a sensitive one, to the point that Girardi would not address the issue in his season-ending news conference. As for Girardi, he lost a bulk of his negotiating leverage when the Cubs decided on Mike Quade as their new manager. The stickiest situation could be behind the plate, where Posada may be forced to share some time behind the plate as they begin to make room for Montero.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Some would argue that catcher Jesus Montero is the best pure hitter in the minors, as the 20-year-old hit .351/.396/.684 during the second half of the season for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Despite his tender age, he's big-league ready, and now the question is where he'll play on the field. He's made great strides behind the plate, but the upgrade is merely from embarrassing to simply bad. Few scouts see him as an upgrade over the slow, deficient and aging Posada. No matter where Montero ends up, the bat is going to play in the middle of the order for one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.

Now, it's time to kiss the Philadelphia Phillies -- the losers of the NLCS -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Phillies went into the National League Championship Series as heavy favorites to beat the San Francisco Giants, and instead, they were shut down and knocked out. In past postseasons, the powerful Philadelphia lineup generated a lot of home runs, the foundation of the Phillies' attack, but in this postseason, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley did not hit with the same thump.

Roy Halladay, though, was everything that the Phillies thought he would be and more, and Cole Hamels rebounded from a mediocre 2009 season by improving his conditioning and implementing a cutter. Roy Oswalt was acquired in midseason and was dominant for two months, and at season's end, closer Brad Lidge was throwing the ball better than at any time since the 2008 World Series. Carlos Ruiz continues to be one of the most underrated players in the majors, handling one of baseball's best staffs and developing into one of baseball's toughest hitters with runners on base.

Few changes are on the docket for the Phillies, who can bring back their rotation and their primary bullpen pieces intact, along with almost their entire everyday lineup. The only major question is this: Who will be the right fielder? Jayson Werth is set to become a free agent, and his agent, Scott Boras, is already talking about how Werth is in line for Monopoly money. As the Phillies assess a possible pursuit of Werth, they have to keep their eyes on the big picture -- this is an old team that is getting older, and is it wise for them to make another whopping investment in the 31-year-old Werth? And if not Werth, then who should it be? Domonic Brown has been ranked by Baseball America as one of the top prospects in the game, but he struggled enough that some rival scouts are wondering if his swing will translate in the big leagues -- and like so many others in the Phillies' lineup, Brown is a left-handed hitter; the Phillies' left-handed imbalance was probably a major reason why they were knocked out in the playoffs. Werth would help to balance the lineup. Some scouts walked away from the playoffs wondering, too, about Utley's future. The All-Star second baseman did not look good in the postseason, at the plate or on defense, and there are questions being raised in other organizations about whether Utley will be able to again be an elite player. We'll see.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Halladay and Hamels both posted ERAs that were better than their skill-interactive ERAs, and midseason acquisition Oswalt also performed that trick with a 1.74 ERA with the Phillies after being acquired from the Astros in a trade despite a 3.29 SIERA. Joe Blanton struggled out of the gate but had a 3.48 ERA with improved strikeout and walk rates in the second half to help the Phillies overtake the Braves for the National League East title. The starting pitching allowed the team to win 98 games despite an offense that was weak, relative to past Phillies teams (it was eighth in the major leagues in true average). Werth, likely in his final season in Philadelphia before leaving as a free agent, led the offense with the most productive season of his career (.322 TAv, 7.0 wins above replacement player), which helped to compensate for the injury to Utley and Howard's drop in power.

What went wrong: Blanton recovered, but his first half was nothing short of a disaster (6.41 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9). There wasn't a huge difference between playing Jimmy Rollins (394 PA, .264 TAv, minus-7 fielding runs above average and 1.4 wins above replacement player) and Wilson Valdez (363, .246, plus-1, 1.2) at shortstop thanks to his second straight disappointing season. Kyle Kendrick was barely above replacement level thanks to a 4.73 ERA and 4.94 SIERA, but his presence was required once J.A. Happ was dealt for Oswalt. J.C. Romero made 60 relief appearances but finished the year just a hair above replacement level.

What won't happen again: The Phillies should not have led the majors in wins by any stretch of the imagination -- the lone area they excelled in was starting pitching, and they were much closer to average in every other major area. Based on third-order standings, the Braves and Phillies were more similar than their actual records show but Philadelphia won the National League East by six games over Atlanta.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The OF questions: Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez are under contract through 2011, but Werth is a free agent. The expectation is that the Phillies will let Werth walk and insert top prospect Brown into right field going forward. But Ibanez has shown signs of a quick decline and the club's offense needs a boost after hitting .215/.309/.304 in nine postseason games. The Phillies have more than $130 million committed to 15 players, so it appears highly unlikely that a change of heart concerning Werth is in the cards, unless GM Ruben Amaro finds a way to clear payroll space by trading the likes of Placido Polanco, Blanton or Lidge. Amaro could look to find lightning in a bottle on cheaper free agents such as Jay Gibbons or Brad Hawpe in case Ibanez's slide continues, and could look to move Ibanez himself to open up left field for a more athletic and defensively capable answer. Otherwise, the Phillies are relying on Brown to pick up the slack left by Werth's likely departure.

A sneak attack: Considering the payroll limitations, it could be a quiet winter for the three-time defending National League East champions, but it's difficult to believe that the Phillies will stand pat. They could be players for trade-available solutions as they do own the necessary inventory in their farm system to compete for impact talent, but it'd surprise most in the industry if they made a big splash, including attempts to lure back free agent left-hander Cliff Lee. If a bold move is in their future, could it involve Rollins or Victorino? Rollins is a free agent after next year and the Phillies could show interest in acquiring a center fielder such as B.J. Upton of the Tampa Bay Rays or the Dodgers' Matt Kemp. Shortstops that could be available this winter include Marco Scutaro or Jed Lowrie in Boston, Tampa's Jason Bartlett and Arizona's Stephen Drew.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Phillies got their glimpse of the future since late July, when outfielder Brown arrived, although little room in the outfield led to just 70 plate appearances during his two-plus months in the majors. Before the call-up, Brown was arguably the best position prospect in the upper minors, batting .327/.391/.589 in 93 games spread across Double- and Triple-A. A 6-foot-5 pure athlete, Brown can be a regular 20-20 player in the majors -- maybe even a 30-30 guy -- but he has issues with pitch recognition that could doom him.

Now, it's time to kiss the Texas Rangers -- losers of the World Series, four games to one -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
After reaching the World Series for the first time in Rangers history, they were shut down by the extraordinary pitching of the San Francisco Giants; the 3-4-5 spots in the Texas lineup batted a combined .130, and the Rangers mustered only as many hits (29) in the five-game series as the Giants scored runs. Cliff Lee, who had been so spectacular in the first two rounds of the playoffs, lost both of his starts.

In the midst of a season in which the ownership of the club was debated in bankruptcy court, the excellent player development work of general manager Jon Daniels and his staff manifested itself during the regular season. Elvis Andrus, the Rangers' shortstop, was acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, as was Neftali Feliz, who set a record for most saves by a rookie. Josh Hamilton, who was acquired for young pitcher Edinson Volquez, became the best player in the American League. The Rangers were able to out-bid the Yankees for Lee because they had drafted and developed first baseman Justin Smoak. And for the first time in its history, Texas had real pitching depth; even when Scott Feldman struggled, the likes of C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hunter stepped up.

With the team's ownership question now settled, the Rangers should be able to increase their payroll -- and they'll need to if they are to follow through and sign Lee, as they would like to do. If they are unable to outbid the Yankees for Lee, they will have a major hole in their rotation. If they don't choose to retain slugger Vladimir Guerrero, they will need to identify another consistent hitter to bat behind Hamilton in the batting order. And Texas does have one major organizational hole, at catcher. But even with all that said, the Rangers should go into next year as the favorite to repeat as AL West champions.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: A pair of big offseason risks in the rotation came up aces, as Daniels' decision to re-import Colby Lewis from the Japanese leagues and to convert sometime closer C.J. Wilson into a starting pitcher gave Texas its top two starters. It was those risks that provided the platform for subsequently going for it and grabbing Lee, a concert of decisions gone good that won the franchise's first two postseason series and propelled them into the World Series. Fitting neatly with that was the continuing development of the Rangers' defense (see below). And the decision to throw a one-year deal at Guerrero provided the Rangers' lineup with a cleanup hitter who helped keep MVP candidate Josh Hamilton from receiving intentional passes at a Pujolsian clip. Hamilton led the AL in True Average with a .346 mark, and both finished among the top 10 in OBI percentage in the majors, with Hamilton plating 19.4 percent of his baserunners to Vladi's 18.8 percent.

What went wrong: For a team that just won a pennant, quite a bit. So while the Giants are doing a victory lap and getting credit for their ability to adapt and overcome, spread some of that love the Rangers' way, because they had plenty of obstacles to overcome. Remember when Rich Harden was supposed to be part of the answer in the rotation, or how Scott Feldman was one of the Rangers' starting stalwarts? Well, not so much. You probably can't overstate the damage losing Frank Francisco did to that bullpen, because whatever it achieved in the aggregate on the season didn't add up to much when they were short their best right-handed setup man. Remember that when talking about all those late-game meltdowns in the postseason that Ron Washington presided over, because one of his best weapons was on the shelf, and it showed. Oh, and remember when the Rangers had all the young catchers everybody wanted? Well, for everyone wondering why Bengie Molina was squatting on the national stage, let's just say that didn't quite turn out the way people expected, as Taylor Teagarden's weak bat and Jarrod Saltalamacchia's fragility and receiving skills just didn't add up to an answer.

What won't happen again: Tommy Hunter starting a World Series game. Until he develops a reliable off-speed pitch that big league hitters will chase, it seems hard to expect the big man to be part of the rotation's long-term picture, and with a full run's worth of difference between his actual ERA and his Skill-Interactive ERA, you can understand where the doubters are coming from. Even with that Rangers defense to thank for a .259 batting average on balls in play, his 12.7 percent strikeout rate suggests he's fooling very few people most of the time. With those sorts of factors counting against him, it's going to be extremely hard for him to sustain that record on balls in play, not to mention his 2011 pitching lines.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
All about Lee: With the Rangers competing with the New York Yankees for Lee's services this winter, Daniels and team president Nolan Ryan must have a contingency plan, because, after all, if the Steinbrenners want to grossly outbid the Rangers, they can and will. But Texas' rotation will need a significant makeover without Lee as its anchor; one potential alternative could be Kansas City right-hander Zack Greinke. The Rangers have tons of young talent that could entice the Royals to trade the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner, including left-hander Derek Holland and a number of prospects. Even if the Rangers retain Lee, Daniels could seek improvements to the middle of the rotation and may find the likes of Jorge De La Rosa a fit behind Lewis and Wilson, but adding a pitcher of that caliber could depend on how much payroll flexibility the club possesses, and whether Lee -- who will undoubtedly receive a gigantic contract -- returns next season. Other free-agent pitchers that may intrigue the Rangers include Carl Pavano and Brad Penny, but don't expect them to show interest in Chris Young, whom the club dealt to San Diego before the 2006 season; they reportedly weren't impressed with his approach or work ethic.

Roster tweaks: The Rangers' offense struggled as a unit during the World Series, which could mean a bit of a makeover may be in order. Mitch Moreland could return as the regular at first base after showing well in the postseason, but Guerrero's $9 million option could be too high a price to pay for what the 35-year-old gave them in the playoffs, which may lead the Rangers toward veteran DH Jim Thome -- or at least a cheaper option. Molina may retire, which brings the Rangers back to square one at catcher, and could mean Daniels seeks another veteran such as free agent A.J. Pierzynski. If the Rangers think about a trade, the Los Angeles Dodgers may be persuaded to part with Russell Martin, who is due a significant raise via arbitration this offseason. Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee could be targets for the first-base gig, and the lack of bullpen depth is sure to be addressed over the winter.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
One is forced to wonder whether Tanner Scheppers could have been another power arm out of the bullpen this year. A supplemental first-round pick in 2009, Scheppers was a dominant force in short stints early in the year, striking out 46 batters in 30 relief innings while allowing just 16 hits, but then the Rangers decided to move him to the rotation, and the results were disastrous. Not only did he fail as a starter; he continued to scuffle after returning to relief work. Still in possession of an upper-90s fastball and plus power curve, Scheppers has the stuff to get back on track, and while he might even close on most teams, for now he'll likely end up setting up Feliz.

Of course, some of these were printed early.  SF Giants will be up tomorrow.

 

[proshares]

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade -- whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview of this season from Buster Olney, a take from Baseball Prospectus, a look toward a potential 2011 move courtesy of Rumor Central and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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Now, it's time to kiss the Minnesota Twins -- the first playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
Manager Ron Gardenhire went into the press room after the Twins were eliminated and mentioned that in spite of the nine straight losses to the Yankees in the postseason, he didn't feel as if the Twins were dominated; there were spots within all the games in the AL Division Series when Minnesota could have taken control of a given game with a timely swing (Jason Kubel, Game 3) or pitch (Carl Pavano, Game 2). But in the end, the Twins went down again, partly because they were banged up -- Joe Mauer and Jim Thome appeared to be nursing injuries, at a time when Minnesota was without Justin Morneau -- and partly because of their lack of power pitching. The Yankees saw 68 pitches in Game 3 before one of them swung and missed, and that lack of stuff in the Twins' rotation has been a recurring problem in October.

Starter Francisco Liriano ran out of gas at the end of the regular season, but during the summer, he had a Cy Young-caliber performance. Left fielder Delmon Young had an excellent rebound season after getting himself in better shape, and Danny Valencia was a revelation at third base with his offensive and defensive production. And Thome mashed 25 homers, edging closer to 600 for his career.

The Twins expect Morneau to recover from his concussion and return to his All-Star form, and the backbone of what should be another AL Central contender will be in place. But Minnesota has to hope that Joe Nathan can recover from Tommy John surgery to be at least a plus for the bullpen, and if the Twins aren't able to re-sign Pavano as a free agent, they'll need to add at least one front-line starting pitcher. Already there is speculation in Minnesota that the Twins could be well-positioned to pursue Zack Greinke -- who would fit the Twins' market -- if the Royals make the right-hander available.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Mauer ended the suspense about whether he would be a lifelong Twin by signing an eight-year, $184 million contract that will keep him in his native Minnesota through the 2018 season. Liriano finally regained the dominating form he showed before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2006 by striking out 9.44 batters per nine innings and allowing just 0.42 home runs per nine. Thome provide a full season's worth of production in 340 plate appearances as he had a 1.039 OPS, a .350 true average and 25 home runs even though Target Field proved to be a pitcher's park in its inaugural season.

What went wrong: The Twins have lost 12 straight postseason games, all to the Yankees in the ALDS round, leaving them one short of the all-time record set by the Red Sox from 1986-95. Morneau was leading the majors with a .360 true average when he suffered a season-ending concussion on July 7. The Twins' .693 defensive efficiency ranked a very ordinary eighth in the AL; they were particularly weak in the outfield.

What won't happen again: The Twins won't get swept in the ALDS by the Yankees. Sooner or later, the laws of averages have to kick in.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Funds: The Twins spent around $100 million on payroll this season, but their commitments for 2011 -- about $72 million to eight players -- may make it difficult to add an impact player over the winter. Kubel's $5.25 million option appears affordable and a relative bargain, but the arbitration cases for Young, Denard Span, Liriano and J.J. Hardy could push the Twins to trade one or more of them to keep their payroll from reaching levels the organization does not wish to handle. General manager Bill Smith will have to find a second baseman to replace Orlando Hudson or spend the money to bring him back, and the club's bullpen may need some help since Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes are hitting free agency. One idea is to try to move Young, who had a breakthrough season in 2010 and could make as much as much as $5 million via arbitration this winter.

Help for Francisco: Considering the issues Smith may have in patching up the bullpen and finding an infield to play regularly with Morneau next season, it may be extremely difficult for the Twins to put together a starting rotation that figures to compete for the division title. Liriano was backed in 2010 by free-agent-to-be Pavano, but the right-hander may have priced himself out of Minnesota with a strong year. The Twins have Kyle Gibson in the minors near-ready for the show, and Scott Baker has always been a reliable mid-rotation arm, but Smith's creativity may be put on display this winter in an attempt to strengthen the club's greatest postseason weakness. Perhaps giving up Young and a pitching prospect for an arm such as Jonathan Sanchez of the San Francisco Giants could work for both clubs.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Twins' top prospects are mostly too young to contribute in 2011, but after trading for Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps to shore up the bullpen for this year's stretch run, there's some help coming from within. A 39th-round draft pick in 2006, Anthony Slama has continued to prove all doubters wrong with a career rate of 12.5 strikeouts per nine. Those who felt he'd be exposed at the upper levels looked foolish after his 2.20 ERA at Triple-A Rochester in 2010 (including 74 whiffs in 65. 1 innings while limiting International League hitters to a .178 batting average). Like most Twins' pitchers, he's more polish than stuff, as he uses a deceptive delivery that allowed his low-90s two-seam fastball and solid slider to play up. While he's unlikely to close in the big leagues, he could get big outs in the seventh and eighth innings.

Now, it's time to kiss the Cincinnati Reds -- the second playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Reds, a team with a lot of young players, ran into the National League's buzz saw in the first round. The Philadelphia Phillies were locked and loaded as the series began, and in four days, the Reds became the second team in history to be no-hit in a postseason game -- at the hand of Roy Halladay -- before being completely dominated by Cole Hamels. Cincinnati simply didn't have the pitching to match up with the Phillies.

Still, the Reds constructed a solid group of pitchers who proved to be the backbone of a team that surprised others in the NL Central, with Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood and Mike Leake supporting Bronson Arroyo. The Reds scored more runs than every other team in the National League, led by likely MVP Joey Votto, and they fielded an excellent defensive team with Gold Glove candidates at third base (Scott Rolen), first base (Votto), second base (Brandon Phillips) and right field (Jay Bruce). The Reds also indoctrinated the most electric left-handed talent, with the ascension of Aroldis Chapman, whose fastball was clocked as high as 105 mph. The Reds do not have the look of a one-year wonder.

Volquez improved dramatically as he came back from Tommy John surgery, and if the Reds are going to repeat as division champs, they need Volquez and Cueto to continue to improve. The Reds have to decide whether to bring back veterans at key defensive positions, catcher Ramon Hernandez and shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Cincinnati struggled to get consistent production from its left fielders; the Reds will need more from that position. This is a good team that could get better in 2011.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: The Reds broke a long cycle of losing as they won their first division title since 1995 and posted their first winning season since 1999. The hitting was reminiscent of the Big Red Machine; they won the NL team Triple Crown for the first time since 1976. Votto emerged as the likely MVP after battling depression for much of the 2009 season, posting a league-leading .350 true average. Rolen found new life at age 35 as he was six wins above a replacement player, his best season since 2004. The Reds' .704 defensive efficiency (number of batted balls turned into outs) was second in the NL.

What went wrong: Pitching has long been the Reds' soft spot, and it was again even in a division-winning season, as they were seventh in the NL in runs allowed. Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake and Homer Bailey all have plenty of talent, but none has turned into a top-of-the-rotation starter yet. Closer Francisco Cordero was erratic and only one win above a replacement reliever. The jitters of a young team in which 19 of the 25 players on the roster were playing in the postseason for the first time showed, as the Reds made seven errors in three games while being swept by the Phillies.

What won't happen again: Aaron Harang starting for a sixth consecutive Opening Day. The Reds won't exercise the $12.75 million club option in his contract after an injury-plagued season and with some many outstanding young arms on the roster.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Keeping it together: The Reds' young core of players are beginning to approach more expensive times, including first baseman Votto and right-handers Volquez and Cueto, all of whom are arbitration-eligible in the winter. This could be a bit of a problem for the club, which has just more than $50 million guaranteed to seven players, if Arroyo is included; GM Walt Jocketty said last week that the veteran's 2011 option would be picked up. Unless the ownership approves a rather large increase in payroll from the $75 million range it paid out in 2010 -- and the Reds' attendance, notwithstanding a division title, ranked No. 20 in baseball, lending the organization little aid on the financial front -- the Reds may have to get creative to add impact talent and fill out their roster. We've noted at Rumor Central that catcher Ramon Hernandez could fit into the club's plans for next season despite his option failing to vest, otherwise creating yet another hole for the club to fill via trade or free agency, but Jocketty & Co. have decisions to make on shortstop Cabrera ($4 million mutual option), Hernandez and right-hander Harang.

Sorting out the staff: With Chapman potentially joining the starting rotation next season, the Reds may have a surplus of starters who could make for valuable trade bait. Although several teams are likely to be on the prowl for upgrades at shortstop, Cincinnati may have the trade juice to land a player such as Stephen Drew. Juan Uribe could be one free-agent option Jocketty looks into, and if J.J. Hardy is nontendered by the Minnesota Twins, he could be a fit with the Reds. Much of the available payroll space may be spent on retaining and adding to the relief corps, where free agents such as Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, J.J. Putz and Jason Frasor could team with Cordero to slam the door on opponents in high-leverage situations. Chapman's role could dictate quite a bit, however, so until the Reds make a decision, their plans may remain incomplete.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft, Devin Mesoraco, was already seen as a bust by many coming into the year. Injuries and a lack of conditioning had led to a career batting line of .240/.311/.368 (average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with scouting reports that were as disappointing as the numbers. The Punxsutawney, Pa., native showed up in camp this spring in the best shape of his life, and all of a sudden, he's the front-line catcher the Reds thought they selected three years ago. Beginning the year at High-A and moving across three levels to Triple-A, the 22-year-old hit a whopping .302/.377/.587 with 26 home runs (his previous career high was nine) in 397 at-bats while gunning down 41 percent of runners attempting to steal. With Hernandez a possible free agent in the offseason, Mesoraco's time could come as early as mid-2011.

Now, it's time to kiss the Atlanta Braves -- the third playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Braves appeared to be running away with the NL East in August, but a series of injuries -- most notably to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado -- greatly diminished their offense by the time the postseason began. Despite a tremendous pitching staff of starters and relievers, the Braves went into their playoff series with almost no margin for error because of their offensive shortcomings, and time and again in the series against San Francisco, they kicked the ball around.

Jason Heyward broke into the big leagues and turned out to be everything that scouts thought he would be, and more; his defense and baserunning skills turned out to be even better than expected. Jonny Venters was switched from starter to reliever and became a dominant setup man, and at season's end, Craig Kimbrel demonstrated the kind of skill set needed to close games. Tim Hudson was named the National League's Comeback Player of the Year, pitching at a Cy Young caliber for most of the year, and at year's end, Derek Lowe had his best month, posting a 1.17 ERA in September. Prado ranked among the majors' leaders in hits until he was taken down by injuries late in the season. Braves GM Frank Wren did excellent work in piecing together a solid bench for his manager, in Bobby Cox's last year.

The playoffs illuminated the reality that the Braves need another bopper for their lineup. Maybe that could be Jones, who intends to come back from a knee reconstruction, or maybe Heyward will evolve from an on-base machine into an Albert Pujols-like threat next year. But what Wren might need to do, for Fredi Gonzalez's first year as manager, is to add an impact bat, perhaps in the outfield. With Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Lowe and what should be a good bullpen -- assuming that either Kimbrel or Venters or somebody else can replace Billy Wagner -- the Braves might have the pitching depth to consider trading Jair Jurrjens for the hitter that they need.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Despite injuries, the Braves finished third in the National League in true average thanks to good years from rookie Heyward (.303), catcher Brian McCann (.294) and Prado (.286). Jones, that old standby, was productive in his 381 plate appearances, and Omar Infante performed well at multiple positions while filling in for the various injured infielders. The bullpen was deep, with offseason acquisitions Wagner and Takashi Saito supported by rookies Venters and closer-of-the-future Kimbrel. Hudson (3.70 SIERA), Hanson (3.74) and Lowe (3.74) formed a potent top of the rotation that made up for instability at the back end and helped the club reach the postseason for the first time since 2005.

What went wrong: Jurrjens was put on the DL early in the season and never recovered his 2009 form on the mound. Kenshin Kawakami also failed to stick in the rotation and posted the highest ERA and SIERA of any Braves starter with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. Jesse Chavez cost the bullpen with a sub-replacement performance, and the reliever he was dealt for, Kyle Farnsworth, performed just as poorly for Atlanta. Injuries to Jones and Prado thinned the team's depth and forced Brooks Conrad to pick up more playing time than he should have, given his glove that cost the Braves dearly in their loss to the Giants in the National League Division Series. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez (.240/.291/.386) failed to make an impact after his summer acquisition, and both middle infielders that the Braves disposed of (shortstop Yunel Escobar and second baseman Kelly Johnson) performed well with their new teams. Center field was a vortex of awful all year long, with the Braves getting a .232/.329/.339 line from the position.

What won't happen again: It will be difficult for the Braves to perform worse in center field than they did in 2010. Nate McLouth should rebound somewhat from an awful season, and keeping Cabrera away from the position would also help.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
King of the hill: One reason Bobby Cox stuck around as long as did was consistent starting pitching, and new skipper Gonzalez will inherit a solid staff. All the current starters are under control for 2011, a list that includes Hudson, Lowe, Hanson, Jurrjens and either Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy. Jurrjens is scheduled to undergo knee surgery and be healthy by spring training. The Braves are not afraid to shake things up -- they openly shopped Lowe and ended up shipping Javier Vazquez to the Yankees last winter. If GM Frank Wren is daring, he could get a top-notch center fielder in exchange for one of the young arms. With Lowe's contract down to $30 million, the Braves should be inclined to keep him, unless another team is willing to absorb a bulk of the deal. Kawakami is owed $6.67 million for 2011 and the Braves would be ecstatic if the ineffective right-hander returned to Japan.

The CF issue: All is well in right field, even if Heyward experienced some growing pains in the NLDS. Who plays next to the star rookie is an open question. Braves center fielders ranked 29th in the majors in batting average (.232) and 28th in RBI (4. McLouth, a 2008 All-Star, looked better late in the season after a dismal start. The Braves could be in the mix for the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus, who may have worn out his welcome in St. Louis , particularly if Tony La Russa decides to come back. As for third base, Jones is hinting that he will be healthy again in 2011. The Braves will look for some veteran insurance so Prado, coming off an injury, can return to second. One option is Geoff Blum, who will not be back in Houston .
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
While injuries hampered the Braves' rotation down the stretch and into the postseason, it should not be an issue in the long term. Few organizations can match Atlanta when it comes to potential starting pitchers. The biggest prize of all is Colombian righty Julio Teheran. Signed in 2007 to an $850,000 bonus, the 19-year-old entered the year with just seven full-season starts under his belt, and finished the season at Double-A, compiling a 2.59 ERA across three levels while striking out 159 batters in just 142. 2 innings. The scary part? Some think he's just scratching the surface of his potential; he already has a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a plus curve, a solid change and above-average control, and there's enough projection that some feel he's the best pitching prospect in the game.

Now, it's time to kiss the Tampa Bay Rays -- the fourth playoff team to exit -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
For a team that accomplished what it did -- Tampa won perhaps the toughest division baseball has seen since it split into three per league, only Cliff Lee's presence got in the way of a real shot at a World Series title -- the overriding feeling in the Tampa clubhouse after the season ended had to be regret.

Executives and scouts across baseball this season believed that in terms of pure talent, if not experience, Tampa is one of the great collections the game has seen in recent years. And it could have led to more. Still, led by the brilliant David Price, the Rays will be back. But in what form? Changes loom. Price and the other Rays will not have Carl Crawford, who will become the most coveted free-agent position player next month. They will not have Rafael Soriano, who will become the most sought-after reliever, or Carlos Pena, who has been a crucial member of the Tampa Bay lineup, even amidst some obvious struggles. The Rays are slashing payroll -- currently at a hair over $72 million -- by about 25 percent. Because of that, there's a melancholy feeling surrounding the organization right now, which, while obviously tied to the disappointment of the recent series loss, overlooks one thing ...

... the talent still there, and the talent still emerging.

Top prospects Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson will climb into the majors next summer and have a real shot to fill the gaps in terms of what the Rays won't get out of Crawford and another starter if one is to depart, perhaps by trade. And even after years of promotions that have turned to gold at the major league level, after those two come up, the system still isn't bare. But the fact is the Tampa Bay front office -- which has done an incredible job over the past six years -- will have a very, very difficult time ever putting together a group with as much talent and depth as the Rays have had the past couple of years.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Despite a .247 batting average that ranked 13th in the American League, the Rays had the No. 4 offense in the league (and No. 6 in the majors) in true average (TAv). Evan Longoria (.306 TAv) and Crawford (.301) led the charge, while B.J. Upton contributed on both sides of the ball as an above-average hitter for a center fielder who also owns one of the best gloves at the position. Rookie catcher John Jaso made everyone forget about the awfulness that was Dioner Navarro's 2009. Jaso was one of just three AL rookies with 400 or more plate appearances and finished with a .280 TAv. Price emerged as a front-line starter, and though the Cy Young talk is a bit premature, he turned the corner the Rays needed in order for him to lead their staff. Matt Joyce, Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez weren't full-time players, but the three combined for 5.8 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 965 plate appearances -- these three symbolize the Rays' method of playing matchups and putting the best possible lineup out every night. Soriano and Joaquin Benoit combined for around nine wins over replacement and were one of the most effective one-two punches out of the bullpen in the game after being acquired over the winter.

What went wrong: James Shields was unlucky, but the results were poor regardless; despite a SIERA of 3.57, the long ball caused him to post an ERA of 5.18. The Rays had what was essentially a three-man bullpen all year long due to the injury to J.P. Howell -- acquiring Chad Qualls at the trade deadline was a high-upside move, but it didn't pay off on a high-impact level as he was mediocre in a Rays uniform. The rotation began the year strong, but outside of Price none of the starters could be labeled as dominant -- Wade Davis recovered from his struggles with homers, but 113 strikeouts in 168 innings was not what people had in mind after his 2009 teaser. The DH slot was an issue almost all season, as Pat Burrell and Hank Blalock failed to produce before the Rays finally settled on Dan Johnson for 140 plate appearances late in the season.

What won't happen again: Crawford and Pena won't be in the lineup and Soriano won't be in the 'pen, as all three will depart via free agency with the Rays going into cost-cutting mode.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
Replacing free agents: Pena and Crawford can be replaced with a few smart moves and some player development. The club's farm system could produce some help, namely Jennings, and the depth of the Rays' organization could support a blockbuster trade by GM Andrew Friedman to acquire another bat or bullpen help -- or both. Upton could be the subject of trade talks, as the Rays may not want to wait any longer for the 26-year-old to become a consistent performer. At least a dozen clubs figure to have interest in Upton should the Rays make him available, including the Atlanta Braves, who may be able to offer a big-league ready first baseman in Freddie Freeman as part of a package deal.

Still armed and dangerous: The Rays could stand pat with their pitching staff in protective mode, as clubs never feel like they have enough pitching. But it's also the organization's greatest strength and may be their best shot at filling some holes on their 25-man roster, including left field, first base, the bullpen and potentially catcher. To save some money, right-handers Shields and Matt Garza could be made available this winter, as both are eligible for salary arbitration. Hellickson showed he was ready to jump into the rotation and could be penciled into the rotation heading into spring training, allowing the Rays to absorb the loss of either veteran. Friedman and skipper Joe Maddon may decide that one way to help their bullpen is to transition Jeff Niemann into a relief role, where he may profile best anyway. It'd be a bit surprising to many if the Rays didn't make a bold move or two this offseason, however, and unless it's Upton, it probably means a starting pitcher will be the centerpiece.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Game 5 loss to the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series meant the end of Crawford's tenure with the Rays, as the outfielder leaves as the franchise's all-time leader in countless offensive categories. Entering the year, Desmond Jennings was seen as the surefire replacement for Crawford in 2011. While the job is still Jennings' to lose, after a so-so year at Triple-A Durham, plenty of questions remain. His .278/.362/.393 line is hardly one that screams future greatness, and the .198 batting average against lefties is cause for real concern. He's as fast as, if not faster than, Crawford, and with a patient approach his skill set will give Tampa Bay a more traditional leadoff man. Yet after looking like he could be just as productive as their departing All-Star, it appears more and more like the Rays will miss Crawford next year more than they initially anticipated.

Now, it's time to kiss the New York Yankees -- the losers of the ALCS -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Yankees were outplayed as thoroughly by the Texas Rangers in the American League Championship Series as in any of New York's postseason series in years; the one-sided nature and lack of production was along the lines of the 1963 World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manager Joe Girardi drew criticism for several crucial decisions -- most notably for leaving A.J. Burnett in deep into the sixth inning of Game 4 -- but all along, the Yankees operated under very little margin for error because of the stagnant offense. Some of the team's oldest stars -- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada -- looked ineffective and old, especially against the younger and more vibrant Rangers.

The Yankees, though, were arguably baseball's best team for much of the summer, lifted by an offense that led the majors in runs and a rotation that began fraying only at season's end. Robinson Cano likely will finish in the top three for the American League Most Valuable Player award, and CC Sabathia will probably receive votes for the AL Cy Young Award. Mariano Rivera had one of the best regular-season performances of his career, and Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson shrugged off slumps to post good overall numbers. Rodriguez mashed his 600th career homer, and Phil Hughes became an All-Star for the first time.

The Yankees expect to retain Girardi and Rivera through seamless negotiations. The contract talks with Jeter are going to be a little more complicated, because the Yankees are expected to offer him a pay cut, at age 36, and it remains to be seen whether the talks between the shortstop and the team will get ugly. The Yankees' priority will be to pursue the pitcher they have coveted for a couple of years, Cliff Lee, but already there is some sense within the organization that if the Rangers take the bidding into the $130 million to $150 million range, the Yankees might pursue another avenue for making their pitching better -- by investing in the much younger Carl Crawford, a shutdown defender whose skills would fit Yankee Stadium perfectly. The Yankees may also decide to take Posada out of his role as the everyday catcher for the first time in more than a decade, instead shifting him into more of a designated hitter.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: They fielded the league's best lineup, posting a .273 true average (TAv), and adding Granderson to the outfield was not just a matter of adding another salary -- they also got a boost in park adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE), finishing second in the league in team defense behind the Rangers. Starring this time around in an All-Star-studded lineup was Cano, who posted career highs in homers (29) and slugging (.534), walks (57) and OBP (.381), and his first season with a TAv above .300, all in his age-27 season, smack dab in the 25-29 range when most hitters reach peak performance. The bullpen was already a strong unit before the acquisition of Kerry Wood, but adding the former Cubs great gave Rivera the setup stud he'd lacked since Joba Chamberlain's career died its death by a thousand midge bites.

What went wrong: Javier Vazquez, the biggest of their offseason big-ticket pickups, massively disappointed expectations. But after his first failure in pinstripes in 2004, the Yankees can't pretend they didn't have previous experience with that. Moving back to the toughest division in the DH league, he posted his worst season since his first spin in the Bronx, worse even than the years in Chicago that used to drive Ozzie Guillen to distraction. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Vazquez was merely the poster boy for a disappointing rotation that, for its $64 million price tag, ranked just ninth in the league and 20th overall in support-neutral value. Signing Nick Johnson was a worthwhile risk for stocking the team's DH slot, but his latest run-in with injury left them short-handed, which trading for Lance Berkman didn't fix.

What won't happen again: Vazquez in pinstripes, and not just because he was a one-year rental who flopped, again. This creates the obvious expectation that his slot will be filled by some other major big-ticket addition. We'll have to see whether GM Brian Cashman takes the direct course and starts and ends his shopping list with Lee (that's what he should do) or does as he did in acquiring Vazquez and shops around on other people's rosters.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The Lee effect: The postseason legend of Lee went up a few notches this October and no team knows that more than the Yankees, who, barring a major change of course, will make a serious pitch for the free-agent left-hander. The seven-year, $161 million deal for Sabathia will be a benchmark for discussion, but it remains to be seen just how high the Bronx Bombers will go. Lee has kept his poker face regarding next season, so we really don't know if he is willing to give a hometown discount to stay in Texas. With Burnett's career headed south and the future of Andy Pettitte uncertain, finding a veteran starter is a necessity. If Lee goes elsewhere, a fallback option could be Jorge De La Rosa, who appears to be in no rush to re-sign with the Rockies and may be waiting to see if the Lee-to-the-Yankees talks fall apart. The willingness to give up top prospect Jesus Montero in a failed attempt to land Lee over the summer shows that the Yankees remain willing to think big under the Hal Steinbrenner regime. Signing a top-level free-agent outfielder such as Crawford would seem to be overly ambitious, but never count the Yankees out, particularly if the Red Sox are seriously involved. There is talk that the Yankees could pursue Jayson Werth if they decide to trade right fielder Nick Swisher.

The Big Three: The Yankees said in March they wouldn't discuss contract extensions with Jeter, Rivera and Girardi until after the season, and they stayed true to their word. The most fascinating of those discussions involves Jeter, whose 10-year, $189 million deal comes to a close. Jeter may be a franchise icon, but he needs the Yankees as much as the Yankees need him. He is a 36-year-old shortstop with declining offensive numbers, meaning his best offer will undoubtedly come from the Yankees, who will reward him for past performance. At some point, they must decide if Jeter will move off shortstop, but all indications are that nothing is planned for 2011. The issue is a sensitive one, to the point that Girardi would not address the issue in his season-ending news conference. As for Girardi, he lost a bulk of his negotiating leverage when the Cubs decided on Mike Quade as their new manager. The stickiest situation could be behind the plate, where Posada may be forced to share some time behind the plate as they begin to make room for Montero.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
Some would argue that catcher Jesus Montero is the best pure hitter in the minors, as the 20-year-old hit .351/.396/.684 during the second half of the season for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Despite his tender age, he's big-league ready, and now the question is where he'll play on the field. He's made great strides behind the plate, but the upgrade is merely from embarrassing to simply bad. Few scouts see him as an upgrade over the slow, deficient and aging Posada. No matter where Montero ends up, the bat is going to play in the middle of the order for one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.

Now, it's time to kiss the Philadelphia Phillies -- the losers of the NLCS -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
The Phillies went into the National League Championship Series as heavy favorites to beat the San Francisco Giants, and instead, they were shut down and knocked out. In past postseasons, the powerful Philadelphia lineup generated a lot of home runs, the foundation of the Phillies' attack, but in this postseason, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley did not hit with the same thump.

Roy Halladay, though, was everything that the Phillies thought he would be and more, and Cole Hamels rebounded from a mediocre 2009 season by improving his conditioning and implementing a cutter. Roy Oswalt was acquired in midseason and was dominant for two months, and at season's end, closer Brad Lidge was throwing the ball better than at any time since the 2008 World Series. Carlos Ruiz continues to be one of the most underrated players in the majors, handling one of baseball's best staffs and developing into one of baseball's toughest hitters with runners on base.

Few changes are on the docket for the Phillies, who can bring back their rotation and their primary bullpen pieces intact, along with almost their entire everyday lineup. The only major question is this: Who will be the right fielder? Jayson Werth is set to become a free agent, and his agent, Scott Boras, is already talking about how Werth is in line for Monopoly money. As the Phillies assess a possible pursuit of Werth, they have to keep their eyes on the big picture -- this is an old team that is getting older, and is it wise for them to make another whopping investment in the 31-year-old Werth? And if not Werth, then who should it be? Domonic Brown has been ranked by Baseball America as one of the top prospects in the game, but he struggled enough that some rival scouts are wondering if his swing will translate in the big leagues -- and like so many others in the Phillies' lineup, Brown is a left-handed hitter; the Phillies' left-handed imbalance was probably a major reason why they were knocked out in the playoffs. Werth would help to balance the lineup. Some scouts walked away from the playoffs wondering, too, about Utley's future. The All-Star second baseman did not look good in the postseason, at the plate or on defense, and there are questions being raised in other organizations about whether Utley will be able to again be an elite player. We'll see.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: Halladay and Hamels both posted ERAs that were better than their skill-interactive ERAs, and midseason acquisition Oswalt also performed that trick with a 1.74 ERA with the Phillies after being acquired from the Astros in a trade despite a 3.29 SIERA. Joe Blanton struggled out of the gate but had a 3.48 ERA with improved strikeout and walk rates in the second half to help the Phillies overtake the Braves for the National League East title. The starting pitching allowed the team to win 98 games despite an offense that was weak, relative to past Phillies teams (it was eighth in the major leagues in true average). Werth, likely in his final season in Philadelphia before leaving as a free agent, led the offense with the most productive season of his career (.322 TAv, 7.0 wins above replacement player), which helped to compensate for the injury to Utley and Howard's drop in power.

What went wrong: Blanton recovered, but his first half was nothing short of a disaster (6.41 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9). There wasn't a huge difference between playing Jimmy Rollins (394 PA, .264 TAv, minus-7 fielding runs above average and 1.4 wins above replacement player) and Wilson Valdez (363, .246, plus-1, 1.2) at shortstop thanks to his second straight disappointing season. Kyle Kendrick was barely above replacement level thanks to a 4.73 ERA and 4.94 SIERA, but his presence was required once J.A. Happ was dealt for Oswalt. J.C. Romero made 60 relief appearances but finished the year just a hair above replacement level.

What won't happen again: The Phillies should not have led the majors in wins by any stretch of the imagination -- the lone area they excelled in was starting pitching, and they were much closer to average in every other major area. Based on third-order standings, the Braves and Phillies were more similar than their actual records show but Philadelphia won the National League East by six games over Atlanta.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
The OF questions: Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez are under contract through 2011, but Werth is a free agent. The expectation is that the Phillies will let Werth walk and insert top prospect Brown into right field going forward. But Ibanez has shown signs of a quick decline and the club's offense needs a boost after hitting .215/.309/.304 in nine postseason games. The Phillies have more than $130 million committed to 15 players, so it appears highly unlikely that a change of heart concerning Werth is in the cards, unless GM Ruben Amaro finds a way to clear payroll space by trading the likes of Placido Polanco, Blanton or Lidge. Amaro could look to find lightning in a bottle on cheaper free agents such as Jay Gibbons or Brad Hawpe in case Ibanez's slide continues, and could look to move Ibanez himself to open up left field for a more athletic and defensively capable answer. Otherwise, the Phillies are relying on Brown to pick up the slack left by Werth's likely departure.

A sneak attack: Considering the payroll limitations, it could be a quiet winter for the three-time defending National League East champions, but it's difficult to believe that the Phillies will stand pat. They could be players for trade-available solutions as they do own the necessary inventory in their farm system to compete for impact talent, but it'd surprise most in the industry if they made a big splash, including attempts to lure back free agent left-hander Cliff Lee. If a bold move is in their future, could it involve Rollins or Victorino? Rollins is a free agent after next year and the Phillies could show interest in acquiring a center fielder such as B.J. Upton of the Tampa Bay Rays or the Dodgers' Matt Kemp. Shortstops that could be available this winter include Marco Scutaro or Jed Lowrie in Boston, Tampa's Jason Bartlett and Arizona's Stephen Drew.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
The Phillies got their glimpse of the future since late July, when outfielder Brown arrived, although little room in the outfield led to just 70 plate appearances during his two-plus months in the majors. Before the call-up, Brown was arguably the best position prospect in the upper minors, batting .327/.391/.589 in 93 games spread across Double- and Triple-A. A 6-foot-5 pure athlete, Brown can be a regular 20-20 player in the majors -- maybe even a 30-30 guy -- but he has issues with pitch recognition that could doom him.

Now, it's time to kiss the Texas Rangers -- losers of the World Series, four games to one -- goodbye.
[h3]The overview[/h3]
After reaching the World Series for the first time in Rangers history, they were shut down by the extraordinary pitching of the San Francisco Giants; the 3-4-5 spots in the Texas lineup batted a combined .130, and the Rangers mustered only as many hits (29) in the five-game series as the Giants scored runs. Cliff Lee, who had been so spectacular in the first two rounds of the playoffs, lost both of his starts.

In the midst of a season in which the ownership of the club was debated in bankruptcy court, the excellent player development work of general manager Jon Daniels and his staff manifested itself during the regular season. Elvis Andrus, the Rangers' shortstop, was acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, as was Neftali Feliz, who set a record for most saves by a rookie. Josh Hamilton, who was acquired for young pitcher Edinson Volquez, became the best player in the American League. The Rangers were able to out-bid the Yankees for Lee because they had drafted and developed first baseman Justin Smoak. And for the first time in its history, Texas had real pitching depth; even when Scott Feldman struggled, the likes of C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hunter stepped up.

With the team's ownership question now settled, the Rangers should be able to increase their payroll -- and they'll need to if they are to follow through and sign Lee, as they would like to do. If they are unable to outbid the Yankees for Lee, they will have a major hole in their rotation. If they don't choose to retain slugger Vladimir Guerrero, they will need to identify another consistent hitter to bat behind Hamilton in the batting order. And Texas does have one major organizational hole, at catcher. But even with all that said, the Rangers should go into next year as the favorite to repeat as AL West champions.
[h3]Baseball Prospectus' take[/h3]
What went right: A pair of big offseason risks in the rotation came up aces, as Daniels' decision to re-import Colby Lewis from the Japanese leagues and to convert sometime closer C.J. Wilson into a starting pitcher gave Texas its top two starters. It was those risks that provided the platform for subsequently going for it and grabbing Lee, a concert of decisions gone good that won the franchise's first two postseason series and propelled them into the World Series. Fitting neatly with that was the continuing development of the Rangers' defense (see below). And the decision to throw a one-year deal at Guerrero provided the Rangers' lineup with a cleanup hitter who helped keep MVP candidate Josh Hamilton from receiving intentional passes at a Pujolsian clip. Hamilton led the AL in True Average with a .346 mark, and both finished among the top 10 in OBI percentage in the majors, with Hamilton plating 19.4 percent of his baserunners to Vladi's 18.8 percent.

What went wrong: For a team that just won a pennant, quite a bit. So while the Giants are doing a victory lap and getting credit for their ability to adapt and overcome, spread some of that love the Rangers' way, because they had plenty of obstacles to overcome. Remember when Rich Harden was supposed to be part of the answer in the rotation, or how Scott Feldman was one of the Rangers' starting stalwarts? Well, not so much. You probably can't overstate the damage losing Frank Francisco did to that bullpen, because whatever it achieved in the aggregate on the season didn't add up to much when they were short their best right-handed setup man. Remember that when talking about all those late-game meltdowns in the postseason that Ron Washington presided over, because one of his best weapons was on the shelf, and it showed. Oh, and remember when the Rangers had all the young catchers everybody wanted? Well, for everyone wondering why Bengie Molina was squatting on the national stage, let's just say that didn't quite turn out the way people expected, as Taylor Teagarden's weak bat and Jarrod Saltalamacchia's fragility and receiving skills just didn't add up to an answer.

What won't happen again: Tommy Hunter starting a World Series game. Until he develops a reliable off-speed pitch that big league hitters will chase, it seems hard to expect the big man to be part of the rotation's long-term picture, and with a full run's worth of difference between his actual ERA and his Skill-Interactive ERA, you can understand where the doubters are coming from. Even with that Rangers defense to thank for a .259 batting average on balls in play, his 12.7 percent strikeout rate suggests he's fooling very few people most of the time. With those sorts of factors counting against him, it's going to be extremely hard for him to sustain that record on balls in play, not to mention his 2011 pitching lines.
[h3]Rumor Central: 2011 options[/h3]
All about Lee: With the Rangers competing with the New York Yankees for Lee's services this winter, Daniels and team president Nolan Ryan must have a contingency plan, because, after all, if the Steinbrenners want to grossly outbid the Rangers, they can and will. But Texas' rotation will need a significant makeover without Lee as its anchor; one potential alternative could be Kansas City right-hander Zack Greinke. The Rangers have tons of young talent that could entice the Royals to trade the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner, including left-hander Derek Holland and a number of prospects. Even if the Rangers retain Lee, Daniels could seek improvements to the middle of the rotation and may find the likes of Jorge De La Rosa a fit behind Lewis and Wilson, but adding a pitcher of that caliber could depend on how much payroll flexibility the club possesses, and whether Lee -- who will undoubtedly receive a gigantic contract -- returns next season. Other free-agent pitchers that may intrigue the Rangers include Carl Pavano and Brad Penny, but don't expect them to show interest in Chris Young, whom the club dealt to San Diego before the 2006 season; they reportedly weren't impressed with his approach or work ethic.

Roster tweaks: The Rangers' offense struggled as a unit during the World Series, which could mean a bit of a makeover may be in order. Mitch Moreland could return as the regular at first base after showing well in the postseason, but Guerrero's $9 million option could be too high a price to pay for what the 35-year-old gave them in the playoffs, which may lead the Rangers toward veteran DH Jim Thome -- or at least a cheaper option. Molina may retire, which brings the Rangers back to square one at catcher, and could mean Daniels seeks another veteran such as free agent A.J. Pierzynski. If the Rangers think about a trade, the Los Angeles Dodgers may be persuaded to part with Russell Martin, who is due a significant raise via arbitration this offseason. Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee could be targets for the first-base gig, and the lack of bullpen depth is sure to be addressed over the winter.
[h3]Organizational future[/h3]
One is forced to wonder whether Tanner Scheppers could have been another power arm out of the bullpen this year. A supplemental first-round pick in 2009, Scheppers was a dominant force in short stints early in the year, striking out 46 batters in 30 relief innings while allowing just 16 hits, but then the Rangers decided to move him to the rotation, and the results were disastrous. Not only did he fail as a starter; he continued to scuffle after returning to relief work. Still in possession of an upper-90s fastball and plus power curve, Scheppers has the stuff to get back on track, and while he might even close on most teams, for now he'll likely end up setting up Feliz.

Of course, some of these were printed early.  SF Giants will be up tomorrow.

 

[stringer bell 32]

Good stuff Pro

 

[stringer bell 32]

Good stuff Pro