Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.

johnnyredstorm · Dec 19, 2010

Nobody is going to kill him for going out and getting a 27 year old Cy Young winner with a reasonable contract. This isn't like he traded Adam Jones for Erik Bedard.

johnnyredstorm · Dec 19, 2010

Nobody is going to kill him for going out and getting a 27 year old Cy Young winner with a reasonable contract. This isn't like he traded Adam Jones for Erik Bedard.

abovelegit1 · Dec 19, 2010

Brewers are easily contenders in the NL central this year. When Prince dips out after the season then who knows, but this season they will contend. They have three guys that would either be the number 1 or 2 on any pitching staff, and Randy Wolf as the fourth starter. The offense was fourth in the NL in runs scored. Sounds like a contender to me.

Agreed with whoever said KC got no real impact players...smh

As for the Yankees,

at the thought of them not contending/needing to rebuild soon...newsflash they're the Yankees, just because Cliff turned down a few extra million, doesn't mean all of a sudden every player/agent will start hating money. C'mon now. People are falling over themselves just because they're not the favorites this year. Give me a break.

proshares · Dec 19, 2010

IDK, I feel like KC kinda got hosed in this deal. They could have gotten better from Texas and Toronto if they held out a little longer. Oh well, he's out of the AL I'm happy.

proshares · Dec 19, 2010

IDK, I feel like KC kinda got hosed in this deal. They could have gotten better from Texas and Toronto if they held out a little longer. Oh well, he's out of the AL I'm happy.

N41D · Dec 19, 2010

Originally Posted by taimaishu123

we just received 2 pitchers who will be ranked in the top 100 prospects and both crack the Royals top 10 prospects, a shortstop who was a top 20 prospect going into last season and a center field prospect for Greinke,

Um... No.

Maybe you think more of Escobar than I do, but he didn't look special in 2010. In fact, he was pretty bad. And Cain will be 25 in April and really hasn't ever dominated at a level he was young for... If it's Jeffress, he's one drug incident away from a lifetime ban. The other one, lottery ticket. Who knows.

They took quantity at need positions over quality... They could have traded straight up for someone like Jesus Montero or that kinda guy and come out better IMO.

N41D · Dec 19, 2010

Originally Posted by taimaishu123

we just received 2 pitchers who will be ranked in the top 100 prospects and both crack the Royals top 10 prospects, a shortstop who was a top 20 prospect going into last season and a center field prospect for Greinke,

Um... No.

Maybe you think more of Escobar than I do, but he didn't look special in 2010. In fact, he was pretty bad. And Cain will be 25 in April and really hasn't ever dominated at a level he was young for... If it's Jeffress, he's one drug incident away from a lifetime ban. The other one, lottery ticket. Who knows.

They took quantity at need positions over quality... They could have traded straight up for someone like Jesus Montero or that kinda guy and come out better IMO.

ooiron manoo · Dec 19, 2010

@ the Brewers going after Greinke.

@ Greinke ending up on the Brewers.

I guess one last run before Prince leaves.

ooiron manoo · Dec 19, 2010

@ the Brewers going after Greinke.

@ Greinke ending up on the Brewers.

I guess one last run before Prince leaves.

proshares · Dec 19, 2010

Well a positive I suppose is that Jeffress can make it a little easier for KC to trade Soria and move him in the closer spot if they fall out of contention this year.

proshares · Dec 19, 2010

Well a positive I suppose is that Jeffress can make it a little easier for KC to trade Soria and move him in the closer spot if they fall out of contention this year.

mr jordan04 · Dec 19, 2010

he'll get traded along with prince at the trade deadline

mr jordan04 · Dec 19, 2010

he'll get traded along with prince at the trade deadline

proshares · Dec 20, 2010

http://[h3]

[h3]Twins backup plan[/h3]
12:17PM ET

[h5]Minnesota Twins [/h5]

The Minnesota Twins are one of a number of clubs interested in Carl Pavano this winter, including the Washington Nationals, but if GM Bill Smith is unsuccessful in retaining the right-hander, Plan B must be one with some substance if his club is to compete in the American League Central.

The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox have improved this offseason, some might even say dramatically, and the Twins have to keep pace on paper if they wish to get the job done on the field. Retaining Pavano, or replacing him with an equal, may be the key to the division race in 2011.

The problem for Minnesota is that Pavano is the last remaining free agent that is considered a No. 3 starter or better that doesn't come with the high-risk label. The Twins could jump into the trade market and look to re-acquire Matt Garza from the Rays, but there's not a whole lot else out there.

Without Pavano,who has drawn interest from a handful of clubs, the Twins have in-house options to fill the rotation behind Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker, including Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. But if Pavano bolts for greener pastures, the other two contenders in the division with almost certainly have a significant advantage in terms of starting pitching.

Smith could scour the league to try and find a hidden trade target, but most of them have been revealed at this stage of the offseason. For the Twins, it may be Pavano or bust, and that's good news for the 35-year-old right-hander, who is reportedly looking for a three-year deal for at least $10 million per season.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Pavano is up next[/h3]
12:05PM ET

[h5]Carl Pavano | Twins [/h5]

UPDATE: Pavano is probably off the Brewers' radar now that Zack Greinke is headed to town, but the Washington Nationals, among others, are still in on the right-hander. Rob Biertempfel tweets Monday morning that the Pirates may even have interest in Pavano if the price is right, but there are no indications what the right price may be in the eye of the Bucs brass.

...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3784 Carl Pavano patiently waited his turn while the http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5353 Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke sweepstakes played out.

Lee landed in Philadelphia and Greinke is making an unexpected detour to Milwaukee, leaving Pavano as the best pitching prize believed to be available.

Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com writes it more likely than ever that Pavano will re-sign with the Minnesota Twins.

The Brewers had been in talks with Pavano?s agent, but the Greinke trade satisfied Milwaukee?s need for a top-of-the-rotation starter. Morosi reports that the Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals had not seriously pursued Pavano, but that could change now that the Greinke deal has gone down.

Pavano is more than willing to return to Minnesota, but the Twins so far has have been reluctant to give the right-hander the three-year deal he covets. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that the Twins were trying to get in on a deal for Greinke. With that option no longer available, they could be willing to up the ante for Pavano.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Melvin: Fielder staying put[/h3]
11:15AM ET

[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers [/h5]

The Brewers' trade for Zack Greinke should end any immediate speculation that Milwaukee is trying to peddle Prince Fielder, who is eligible for free agency after next season.

One of the goals of trading Fielder would be to land viable starting pitching, and the Brewers already have done that in deals for Shaun Marcum and Greinke. GM Doug Melvin confirmed the plan is to keep Fielder and make a strong push next season.

"You never say never," Melvin told the Journal Sentinel. "I said a few weeks ago I didn't want to trade Lorenzo Cain. But my vision is having Prince on this ballclub and keeping our impact bats intact."

The Brewers could again look to move Fielder if they find themselves out of contention in July, but they did not give up several top prospects such as Cain in order to have another rebuilding year.

Fielder had a bit of a down year in 2010, thanks to a slow start, and could reestablish his value early in 2011. Or, the club could start fast and the Brewers could simply be happy getting two draft picks for him when he leaves via free agency next winter.

One possible trade destination for Fielder might have been Boston, but the Red Sox are no longer an option thanks to the trade for Adrian Gonzalez. That makes is likely that Fielder will still be in Wisconsin come September.

Our Buster Olney says retaining Prince was Melvin's most viable option:

- Doug Mittler

[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Sticking with Prince

"The Brewers tried and failed to sign Fielder to an extension, and they tried to trade him, to get equal value for the All-Star-caliber slugger -- but found that teams simply are not going to entertain the idea of giving up high-end pitching for a Scott Boras client, knowing that Fielder will almost certainly walk away when his current deal expires. So the Brewers ultimately decided to load up for next season, in an effort to take advantage of the remaining time Fielder will be anchoring the Milwaukee lineup."

Click to expand...

[/h3]

http://[h3]Counsell stays in Milwaukee[/h3]
11:08AM ET

[h5]Craig Counsell | Brewers [/h5]

It's not the same magnitude as the trade for Zack Greinke, but the Milwaukee Brewers will have another move to announce Monday.

Ken Rosenthal tweets Monday that the Brewers will announce a one-deal deal to being back veteran infielder Craig Counsell.

The Brewers traded shortstop Alcides Escobar to Kansas City Sunday in the Greinke deal and Counsell could see more time as a backup to newly acquired Yuniesky Betancourt.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Cleveland encore for Colon?[/h3]
10:48AM ET

[h5]Bartolo Colon | White Sox [/h5]

Bartolo Colon pitched six seasons in Cleveland before then general manager Mark Shapiro fleeced Montreal Expos counterpart Omar Minaya in a 2002 trade that netted Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Lee Stevens.

Colon has brought plenty to the Indians franchise, both directly and indirectly, so maybe it is time to bring him back.

Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes that the Tribe may sign the 37-year-old Colon, who has not pitched in the big leagues since 2009. Colon has been pitching well for Aguilas in the Dominican Republic where manager Manny Acta recently watched him.

If Colon were to be signed, it would almost certainly be for a minor league deal in which he would be given a chance to compete for the job of fifth starter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will the Rangers pursue Garza?[/h3]
10:32AM ET

[h5]Matt Garza | Rays [/h5]

For weeks, we have been analyzing the trade market for Zack Greinke, waiting to see how the market would unfold once free agent Cliff Lee made up his mind.

Now that Lee shocked the baseball world with his decision to sign with the Phillies, the market was expected to pick up not only for Greinke, but for Tampa Bay's Matt Garza as well.

That indeed is what happened with Greinke, who landed under a Christmas tree in Milwaukee on Sunday. Garza could be next, but Rays GM Andrew Friedman isn't convinced he needs to trade the right-hander, or any of his starting pitchers.

Meanwhile, Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com writes the Rangers need to take a good long look at a possible Garza deal.

Mike Puma wrote in Friday's New York Post that Garza's name surfaced in the New York Mets' recent organizational discussions, but the fact the Tampa Bay righty probably will be awarded more than $5 million in arbitration next season makes him an unlikely fit in Flushing.

The Nationals made a strong pitch for Greinke, but would likely offer far less in any package for Garza.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Hochevar the new ace[/h3]
10:12AM ET

[h5]Luke Hochevar | Royals [/h5]

The seemingly endless rebuilding process in Kansas City continued Sunday with the decision to send 2009 A.L. Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Who becomes the No. 1 starter in Kansas City? As of now, it's Luke Hochevar, the first overall pick in the 2006 draft who was limited to 18 games last season due to injuries and finished 6-6 with a 4.81 ERA.

"Luke is next in line," manager Ned Yost told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. "Now it's time for him (to pitch to his potential), and I think he's more than capable of doing it."

Dutton writes that the rotation is also likely to include Kyle Davies, Vin Mazzaro and Sean O'Sullivan.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Cabrera's potential options[/h3]
9:51AM ET

[h5]Orlando Cabrera | Reds [/h5]

Most of the shortstop market has dried up, but Orlando Cabrera is among the few still available. With the Twins having traded J.J. Hardy to the Baltimore Orioles, might they have interest in bringing back Cabrera? The 36-year-old is open to the idea.

Cabrera could serve as insurance to Alexi Casilla, who appears to be manager Ron Gardenhire's choice to play shortstop in 2011 while newcomer Tsuyoshi Noshioka handles the second base duties.

Cabrera could receive interest from contending clubs such as the New York Yankees or Detroit Tigers to serve as a utility infielder, and the same role could make Cabrera a fit in St. Louis, or in L.A. with the Dodgers.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Tribe balk at dealing Masterson[/h3]
9:50AM ET

[h5]Justin Masterson | Indians [/h5]

The Boston Red Sox are doing some major bullpen renovations this winter with Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler signed in the past week. GM Theo Epstein also made a serious offer to Mariano Rivera and is believed to be interested in Brian Fuentes.

If Epstein had his way, he also would like to bring back a familiar face in Justin Masterson.

Nick Cafardo wrote in Sunday's Boston Globe that the Red Sox have been rebuffed in any attempt to land Masterson, who went to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez trade. The Indians still think highly of Masterson, even though he struggled this past season as a starter (6-12, 4.78 ERA).

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Yankees sign Luis Vizcaino[/h3]
9:25AM ET

[h5]Luis Vizcaino | Indians [/h5]

Veteran reliever Luis Vizcaino will try to return to the major leagues with the New York Yankees, tweets Mark Carig of the Star Ledger.

Carig says Vizcaino has signed a minor league deal and will earn $750,000 if he makes the team. The 36-year-old Vizcaino, who has not been in the majors since being designated for assignment by the Indians in July 2009, has been pitching in the Dominican Winter League.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Yankees eye Garcia?[/h3]
8:40AM ET

[h5]Freddy Garcia | White Sox [/h5]

The market for veteran right-hander Freddy Garcia is heating up, and one serious suitor may have emerged in the Bronx.

The New York Yankees are looking at various pitching options after losing out in the race for Cliff Lee, and one back-of-the-rotation possibility could be Garcia, who won 12 games for the White Sox last season. Mark Feinsand of the Daily News reports the Yankees have requested a look at Garcia's medical records.

Meanwhile, Garcia is a pitcher of interest for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles Baltimore Orioles, tweeted MASN.com's Jen Royle.

The Mets, Twins and Nationals also have been mentioned as possible suitors for Garcia, who will likely be offered an incentive-laden deal.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Angels make offer to Beltre?[/h3]
8:18AM ET

[h5]Adrian Beltre | Red Sox [/h5]

Try going Christmas shopping on December 24th and you'll find just one or two high-quality items still left on the shelves. That's the scenario facing the teams looking to add an impact bat via free agency.

With Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth wrapped up and under the Christmas tree in Boston and Washington, respectively, third baseman Adrian Beltre remains the best item still available.

Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times reported over the weekend that the Angels have made what the club calls a significant offer to Beltre.

There is no information on specifics with years and dollars and it's still unclear when that offer was made. The L.A. Times story speculates that Beltre is asking for about $75 million over five years.

Beltre's supposed asking price could scare off the A's who reportedly offered $64 million last month.

Angels third baseman hit an American League low .223 last season and have the most glaring need for Beltre, but a huge roadblock remains agent Scott Boras.

Owner Arte Moreno still remembers two years ago, when he thought he had a deal with Mark Teixera before Boras steered him to the Yankees. This time around, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports that the Angels are exhibiting more patience and letting Boras come to them.

The Athletics appear to have moved on, especially after adding another lower-cost alternative in Josh Willingham on Thursday.

- Doug Mittler

[h5]Dave Cameron[/h5]
Rangers should sign Beltre

"The Angels lost out on their own prime target when Carl Crawford joined the Red Sox, and it has been widely assumed that Beltre was their second option. The Angels have a significant hole at third base, and Beltre would represent a monumental upgrade for the Rangers' competitor. Not only would Texas be adding the best player left on the market to their roster, but they would be keeping him away from a team trying to chase them down in the American League West. By keeping Beltre away from the Angels, the swing could be as large as four or five wins."

[h5]Jerry Crasnick[/h5]
Price is too high

"The market seems to have spoken thus far, that Scott Boras simply wants too much money for the guy. He let several opportunities come and go: Boston, Oakland and Baltimore, to name three. The Angels still seem like the best fit to me, but Arte Moreno seems to have a real aversion to dealing with Boras."

http://[h3]Did Greinke nix a deal to DC?[/h3]
7:43AM ET

[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]

Say what want about the wisdom of the $126 million deal for Jayson Werth, but give the Washington Nationals credit for making a serious attempt at becoming relevant.

The Nats made an attempt earlier this month to sign Cliff Lee, who landed in Philadelphia, and now comes word from MLB.com's Bill Ladson that Washington had a deal in place to acquire Zack Greinke, but the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner used his no-trade clause to reject the deal.

Various reports indicated that reliever Drew Storen, infielder Danny Espinosa and right-hander Jordan Zimmermann may have been part of a deal for Greinke. The Royals ended up trading Greinke to the Brewers on Sunday afternoon.

With Greinke off the board, Ladson said the Nats remain in the mix for Carl Pavano and Brandon Webb.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Marlins, Nolasco close to extension[/h3]
7:18AM ET

[h5]Ricky Nolasco | Marlins [/h5]

As recently as Saturday, it appeared that talks on a contract extension between the Florida Marlins and Ricky Nolasco were stalled, possibly prompting the team to consider a deal for the right-hander.

The two sides apparently got into the holiday spirit over the weekend. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that Frisaro is on the verge of signing a three-year deal worth close to $27 million.

Nolasco, who won 14 games last season. had two more seasons remaining in arbitration, and the club was willing to retain him on separate one-year deals through 2012. The deal would allow the Marlins to lock up Nolasco through 2013, which would have been his first season eligible for free agency.

The extension also removes a possible trade target for the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, two teams in search of starting pitching.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Greinke deal sets market, NL Central[/h3]
6:58AM ET

[h5]Zack Greinke | Brewers [/h5]

Zack Greinke has been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported Sunday morning. In the deal, the Royals are acquiring outfielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar and pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress, both right-handers, for the 2009 AL Cy Young winner.

This move means several things, least of all the direction available to the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees in their search for starting pitching. It also makes things interest in the National League Central where there are currently three Cy Young Candidates in Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Greinke, as well as Yovanni Gallardo, Greinke's new rotation mate.

The Greinke deal also helps set the market for potential trades including Rays right-hander Matt Garza, Marlins righty Ricky Nolasco and possibly Indians northpaw Fausto Carmona.

ESPN Insider's Keith Law checks in with his take on the Greinke move from both clubs' perspectives:

- Jason A. Churchill

[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Brewers to challenge in NL Central

"If you're going to gut your farm system -- and I think the Milwaukee Brewers have likely secured the bottom spot in the organizational rankings I'll put out in January -- you do it for an impact player who dramatically increases your chances to reach or advance in the postseason in the upcoming season. The Brewers have done that in acquiring Zack Greinke. Whether or not they should have been able to do so is another matter entirely, one that should only concern Kansas City Royals fans."

Not long after the Milwaukee Brewers spiraled deep into the standings at the outset of season and speculation began about whether manager Ken Macha might be fired, I wrote here about how awful the Brewers' pitching was and how no manager would have won with that group.

Within hours, I received an e-mail response to that piece -- about how it was a dead-on assessment of Milwaukee's troubles and how poorly the team's general manager had done in building a pitching staff that could contend.

The note was from someone uniquely qualified to render an opinion on the matter: Brewers general manager Doug Melvin.

He will not repeat his mistakes going into next year, with the additions of Shaun Marcum -- who figures to be a high-end National League starter along the lines of a Tommy Hanson -- and now Zack Greinke after Sunday's trade with the Royals. Suddenly the Brewers might have the best rotation of any NL team other than the Phillies and Giants.

Under any circumstance, Melvin was determined to make the Brewers' pitching better in this offseason, but presumably, Milwaukee's aggressiveness was fueled by two factors:

1. The contract situation of Prince Fielder, who will be eligible for free agency in the fall. The Brewers tried and failed to sign Fielder to an extension. They also attempted to trade the All-Star slugger to get equal value for him, but found that teams simply won't entertain the idea of giving up high-end pitching for a Scott Boras client, knowing that Fielder almost will certainly walk away when his current deal expires.

So the Brewers ultimately decided to load up for next season in an effort to take advantage of the remaining time Fielder will be anchoring the Milwaukee lineup.

2. It has been a status quo winter, mostly, for the teams in the NL Central. The Reds have invested long-term in Jay Bruce and Bronson Arroyo and want to do the same with Joey Votto, but they basically will go into 2011 with the same young core that won the division this past season.

The Cardinals signed Jake Westbrook and added Lance Berkman and Ryan Theriot, but rival scouts aren't convinced that the changes in their everyday lineup will be upgrades. Theriot was previously traded by the Cubs and Dodgers when both teams were looking for middle infielders, so it's not a lock that he'll help at shortstop. It has been six years since Berkman has played the outfield regularly; his transition back to the outfield represents a nice winter theory that may or may not work out in the summer.

And although the Cardinals have some really great résumés, we don't yet know whether Chris Carpenter's late-season collapse at age 35 was a blip, or a symptom; St. Louis' collapse coincided with Carpenter's problems.

The Astros, without much money to spend, have made incremental alterations. The Cubs need major bounce-back seasons from Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, as well as their primary offseason acquisition, Carlos Pena. The Pirates need more years of collecting high-end talent before playing September games that are meaningful to them.

The relative inactivity of the NL Central clubs makes it more likely that the Brewers' moves this winter could propel them back into the postseason.

That said, some rival evaluators expressed surprise on Sunday over the fact that the Brewers wanted Yuniesky Betancourt back in the deal to be their shortstop, rather than simply make another deal for somebody else to play the position. "He's not going to help them," one longtime talent evaluator said. "I'd bet they'll go into spring training open to the idea of finding another shortstop."

Sending Lorenzo Cain to the Royals means that Carlos Gomez is locked in as the Brewers' center fielder. What all this means is that they won't have a lot of margin for error with their everyday lineup. Rickie Weeks, who is in the middle of negotiations on a long-term deal, really needs to stay healthy. Corey Hart, who was playing so poorly in spring training last year that the Brewers were looking for ways to dump him, cannot regress from his strong 2010. Ryan Braun must hit for more consistency. Casey McGehee has to have another good season.

But Melvin did a good job of starting the reconstruction of Milwaukee's bullpen during the 2010 season, so although the Brewers' relievers will never be confused for San Diego's bullpen, it should be better at the outset of the season than it was last spring. And on paper, the Brewers have the deepest and best rotation of any team in the NL Central, and you could make a strong case that they should be the favorites going into 2011.

As of today -- and there is plenty of time for more deals and tinkering for all teams -- this is how I'd rank the NL Central:

1. Reds
2. Brewers
3. Cardinals
4. Astros
5. Cubs
6. Pirates
[h3]More on the deal[/h3]

It's a stunning deal, writes Tom Haudricourt. This trade signals that the Brewers mean business, writes Michael Hunt. The Brewers have become a contender, writes Anthony Witrado.

About the Royals' take: They knew that Greinke wasn't going to be around for long. GM Dayton Moore made the right decision to trade him now, and he got two big-time arms in return for the right-hander. Alcides Escobar ranked 147th among 149 qualifying hitters in OPS last season, but it's too early to write him off, and he should be more comfortable than he was this past summer, when Macha repeatedly benched him and double-switched him out of games rather than just allowing him to settle in. His minor league numbers suggest he should grow as a baserunner and perhaps could generate extra-base hits.

The Royals got a long-term solution at shortstop, writes Bob Dutton. Without Greinke, Royals Nation is royal blue, writes Sam Mellinger.

For the Royals and for Greinke, it was time to move on, writes Tyler Kepner. The Royals are more likely to win this trade, writes Phil Rogers.

The Brewers paid a heavy price, writes John Fay, in addressing the question of which NL Central team should be the favorite.

The Yankees have no regrets that they didn't land Greinke. The Blue Jays are content to bide their time after missing out on the pitcher, writes Richard Griffin. I don't think the Jays were ever knee-deep in the Greinke talks in the way that the Nationals and Rangers were; they were never going to give up Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider for him.

The question of how much the Cardinals have improved was kicked around by the staff of the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

Some other Greinke-related numbers, from ESPN Stats & Information:

Highest ERA in the majors for a starting staff in 2010:

Pirates: 5.28
Royals: 5.25
Orioles: 4.67
Brewers: 4.65
Nationals: 4.61

Part of Greinke's value is his ability to work deep into games. Greinke averaged 6 2/3 innings per start last season, which ranked seventh among all AL starters last season. None of the Brewers' top five starters had that kind of longevity. Another new acquisition, former Blue Jays pitcher Shaun Marcum, averaged 6 1/3 innings per start. The Brewers' top five starters in 2010 in this category (IP per start):

Randy Wolf: 6 1/3
Yovani Gallardo: 6
Dave Bush: 5 2/3
Chris Narveson: 5 2/3
Manny Parra: 5 1/3

Greinke joins Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Barry Zito as players who have won an AL Cy Young Award since 2000 and are now pitching in the NL.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• With the Greinke deal complete, the Rangers missed out on a possible replacement for Cliff Lee. Two winters ago, the Red Sox were frozen in place by their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, and ultimately, after Boston lost the bidding for the first baseman, it never really caught up.
Texas waited and waited and waited for Lee, and now there aren't any perfect alternatives left for the Rangers. But remember: Texas already has an excellent core in place, and the Rangers' margin for error is greater than Boston had after the Teixeira bidding. That's because in the AL West, the Rangers and Athletics seem to have separated themselves from the Angels and Mariners.

• The big contracts given to relievers have had a major impact on Tampa Bay's effort to overhaul its bullpen, writes Marc Topkin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Colorado owner **** Monfort talked about the Rockies' moves this winter.
2. The Red Sox picked up Dan Wheeler. The Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches with their bullpen, writes Tony Massarotti.

3. Here's the projected Detroit lineup, courtesy of the Detroit Free Press.

4. The middle of the Padres' infield could be markedly better, writes Tim Sullivan.

5. The Indians are scouting Bartolo Colon.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
• Joe Mauer is doing OK after minor knee surgery, writes Charley Walters. [h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• There is sad news about Walt Dropo.
• There is sad news about Phil Cavarretta.

• Rays owner Stuart Sternberg is optimistic about the business community's support for a new ballpark.

• Paul Hoynes addressed the question of whether the Indians attended the winter meetings.

• Cliff Lee gives the Phillies a potentially historic rotation, writes Rob Maaddi.

• Larry Walker's Hall of Fame credentials are now on trial.

• Aaron Harang did a Q-and-A with Dan Hayes.

• I can't believe the Giants lost to the Eagles. What Philadelphia accomplished felt like the equivalent of coming from behind facing a 12-run deficit in the ninth inning.

• Many thanks to those who came out to the book signings at Lipscomb University on Friday and Saturday; over two days and about 16 hours of work with his pens, coach Don Meyer signed about 750 copies of "How Lucky You Can Be[/color]."

• I am locked into a grind-it-out semifinal in our fantasy league, and it comes down to this: If Adrian Peterson scores a touchdown Monday night, I win; if he doesn't, I lose. It will be a long and anxious day.

And today will be better than yesterday.

The Milwaukee Brewers went into the 2010 season believing they had one of the best offenses in the National League -- and a pitching staff that would at least be somewhat respectable. The hitters didn't disappoint; despite Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder having "down" years, they were fourth in the NL in runs scored. The pitchers didn't help at all -- the Brew Crew was 14th in the NL in ERA.

GM Doug Melvin has now acquired Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, effectively remaking 2010's rotation. The price was steep -- Brett Lawrie and Lorenzo Cain, among others, could become stars -- although with the window of opportunity closing on the Brewers, they appear to be the right moves.

So, what's the balance of the NL Central for 2011 look like?

To get an early estimate of how the NL Central could shake out in 2011, I took the ZiPS projections for the four teams with realistic shots at winning the division (Pittsburgh is years off and Houston has so many holes that they should start selling Astros-imprinted colanders). As humans are better at figuring out how a roster will shape out better than a computer, I filled in likely inning and at-bat totals for the players in the organization that would likely appear in the majors in 2011.

Using the Bill James-coined Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, I calculated the likely win-loss results with the composed rosters for the four teams. The results? St. Louis comes out on top, with a 87-75 record, with the Brewers and Reds two games behind at 85-77. The Cubs come in at 81-81, behind the others, but close enough that they could be a threat with a little luck, something the universe may grant them one of these years.

We still have two months to go until spring training, but there are still things that each of the four teams should be doing to maximize their chances at making the playoffs next season.
[h3]Brewers [/h3]
The Brewers' rotation is improved, but neither Marcum nor Yovani Gallardo have sterling health records and if one of them goes down, a realistic possibility when talking pitchers, the options rapidly get worse, leaving the Brewers to start Manny Parra, which nobody wants to see, or rushing prospects like Kyle Heckathorn or Cody Scarpetta. Milwaukee's been pursuing Jeff Francis, which is the right idea, but can't give up on finding a fifth starter and using Narveson as a swingman should Francis go elsewhere. The Brewers, clearly making a win-now push, should place more of an emphasis on bringing a less-risky, but lower-upside pitcher like Kevin Millwood into the mix.

Cardinals

They have the best projected team by a hair and a deep bullpen, but like the Brewers, have a number of injury risks in the rotation without great options. But perhaps the best thing the Cardinals can do at this point is to take a sober look at the strengths and weaknesses of players on the roster. Ryan Theriot is probably not a better player than Tyler Greene and Lance Berkman, when taking into account defense, injury and age, isn't likely to be all that much better than Allen Craig. Colby Rasmus is doing just fine without trying to turn him into a slap-hitter. If the team refuses to address the actual problems of the team as the season goes on, they'll be sunk despite having the best talent on paper.
[h3]Reds [/h3]
Cincinnati committed one of the classic errors that fortunate teams make -- they decided that since the team won in one season, the best idea was to stand still and let them win a second time. Baseball rarely works out that neatly, and while the pitching staff can probably be left alone, a lot went right on offense and there's not much depth among position players, except for catcher. There's not much left out there, so the team has to be willing to listen to offers for a starting pitcher. There also has to be a willingness to deal a catcher -- Devin Mesoraco's surprise season in the minors has given the Reds a possible surplus and the team needs better spare options in the outfield.
[h3]Cubs [/h3]
Chicago's probably the worst team listed here, and as such, should focus less on certainty and more on upside with any signings from here on out. The team seems to realize it, being deep in the hunt for Brandon Webb, exactly the kind of moves the Cubs should be making. There's limited flexibility in Chicago, with every position player being locked in and nobody to match Fielder or Pujols or Votto, but the Cubs still have a good opportunity to improve the bullpen with someone like Grant Balfour. The Cubs don't have a lot of margin for error, but could increase the chances of making it interesting by not constantly fretting over Carlos Zambrano and seeking some sort of group therapy so that they can move on from Jeff Samardzija.

If you're going to gut your farm system -- and I think the Milwaukee Brewers have likely secured the bottom spot in the organizational rankings I'll put out in January -- you do it for an impact player who dramatically increases your chances to reach or advance in the postseason in the upcoming season. The Brewers have done that in acquiring Zack Greinke. Whether or not they should have been able to do so is another matter entirely, one that should only concern Kansas City Royals fans.

With Greinke, the Brewers now have three pitchers who'd comfortably slot in as No. 1 or No. 2 starters in most rotations in baseball, pushing Randy Wolf back to the fourth starter role and leaving them with just a hole in the five spot, something you could say for a lot of contenders. They lose a little offensive potential in center by trading Lorenzo Cain, but can at least slot Carlos Gomez in for defense; they do need to find a shortstop, as Yuniesky Betancourt is about as useless an everyday player as you'll find in the majors today. Neither center nor short was a productive position for the Brewers' lineup in 2010, so they're not substantially worse off than they were last year for run-scoring, but just improved their run prevention by 30-40 runs depending on what they do at short. That makes them contenders, but not favorites, in the NL Central in the last year of Prince Fielder's contract.

What Kansas City got back is bulk, and fit, but not impact. There's no single anchor prospect in this deal, a player who'd be a top-15 pick in a draft or who'd be a top-5 prospect in the Royals' stacked system. And three of the four guys the Royals got back (assuming for now that Jeremy Jeffress is the fourth piece) have some major concerns that impact their projected long-term values. When you're trading a once-in-a-decade franchise player with two years left on a reasonable contract, you have a rare opportunity to add one top-shelf, impact prospect to your system, and the Royals employed a different philosophy entirely.

Both Jeffress and Escobar have serious makeup concerns that bleed over into the field. Jeffress has been suspended twice for marijuana usage and perhaps baseball isn't his first priority these days. He's lost a lot of development time that he really needed to develop some control and a consistent second weapon. Escobar wore out his welcome with coaches in Milwaukee's system and in winter ball and had some family concerns that contributed to his falling out of favor.

It's interesting that the Royals would go after these two guys after making such a big deal about acquiring good-makeup players and ridding themselves of bad seeds. They traded Dan Cortes and Danny Gutierrez for character issues, only to see Cortes reach the majors for Seattle at 23 this year. How do you reconcile those moves and statements with the fact that half of the return for Greinke comes with serious baggage of its own?

Jake Odorizzi was the best prospect remaining in the Brewers' system, a super-athletic right-handed pitcher and former high school wide receiver with arm strength and an easy, repeatable delivery. He had an outstanding full-season debut, taking a sub-3.00 ERA into August before tiring (although his one strong August start was a stunner -- eight no-hit, one-walk innings with 10 strikeouts), showing above-average control and improved command while working 91-96 in his best outings. His breaking ball remains a work in progress and while he has good arm speed on a changeup, he did show a sizable platoon split in low Class A this year. He's a great arm to add to a system but probably three years away from any serious major league time.

Cain is a plus runner with an above-average arm and the potential to be an above-average fielder in center given more time out there. He has good bat speed and a simple contact-oriented swing, but his recognition of off-speed stuff (especially sliders) is weak and he's not likely to be a high OBP guy unless he hits for very high averages. Also, he's never played 135 games in a season and missed much of 2009 with a serious knee injury, although his speed returned intact this past year.

Alcides Escobar is a glove-first shortstop who doesn't walk much and has never shown any power, and while he has a very simple, short swing, if you swing at everything, pitchers won't offer you much to hit. He could hit an empty .280 to .290, but without a major change in approach, he's not likely to contribute with the bat. Jeffress, the fourth player in the deal, has an electric arm, 96-100 when I saw him work an inning in the Arizona Fall League last month, and he will flash a two-seamer just below that velocity. His arm is incredibly quick and the velocity is easy, but he's struggled for years to find a consistent breaking ball; he showed a curveball in Arizona that had good rotation, but he still lacks feel for it, and hasn't been able to get enough repetitions in pro ball to develop something to offset the grade-80 fastball.

What this trade reminds me of most is the botched deal the Royals made when they last had a franchise player on the block. With Carlos Beltran, the Royals decided they would prefer to fill holes on their roster rather than maximize the value of the return, insisting that they receive a catcher and a third baseman in any deal. They pulled off a trade, acquiring John Buck and Mark Teahen, both of whom played several years at controlled salaries for Kansas City, but neither of whom was ever a star or even above-average, and who are both gone now with only Chris Getz to show for it. The inclusion of Escobar and Cain in this trade is too reminiscent of the inclusions of Buck and Teahen, and while I do like Cain's raw ability, I don't see him turning into the impact guy the Royals should have gotten for one of the best pitchers they've ever developed.

As for Greinke's ability to handle a large market, if teams are using his mental illness as a way to gauge his "toughness" or makeup, they should be ashamed. Depression is not about being sad, anxiety disorder is not just a matter of being scared, and neither one makes a person "soft." This isn't a question of "he can pitch here, but not there." That's an infuriatingly superficial take on a legitimate medical issue. Since Greinke came back from seeking treatment, he's thrown 773 innings in the majors with a 3.32 ERA and great peripherals. You're never really cured of depression or anxiety disorder, but Greinke has had a long and successful recovery, meaning that concerns that he'd fold like a Japanese fan the moment he got to Capital City are embarrassingly ignorant.

The final piece I don't understand is Kansas City's urgency to trade Greinke now. He has two years left before free agency, giving them two trade deadlines and another offseason to trade him if they couldn't do something in the next two months. If Greinke did request or demand a trade already, the Royals could have told him they'd love to accommodate him as long as he cut down his no-trade list. This offer from Milwaukee may well have been the best the market was offering today, but that doesn't mean the Royals had to accept it today. Greinke couldn't have been burning a hole in their pocket -- perhaps they thought he'd fall through the one Jeff Francoeur is about to burn in it -- and there was a real possibility that Greinke would have started out strong in 2011 and boosted his value in trade. The Royals will see a lot of major league return in this trade, with Cain, Escobar and perhaps Jeffress all appearing in Kansas City in 2011, but this wasn't the best long-term move for a franchise with so much promise coming from within.

By Keith Law

Kerry Wood's one year deal with the Cubs for just $1.5 million is an outstanding deal for the club -- but I think it's a clever long-term move for Wood as well.

The last time Wood left the Cubs and the National League, he landed a two-year deal that ended up earning him about $21 million, so this deal is an enormous (but expected) pay cut. His below-average control cost him in the more difficult league, but now he returns to the weaker circuit (and a very weak division with two horrible offenses in Pittsburgh and Houston) and to the team and park where he had his biggest success as a reliever, striking out 108 with 26 unintentional walks and three home runs allowed in 90.2 innings across his final two years with the Cubs.

Had he taken those numbers into free agency this winter, he would have been in line for a lucrative three-year offer no worse than what Scott Downs, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain received.

Of course, the Cubs get a bargain ... but not in an area of weakness. They already have Carlos Marmol and Andrew Cashner in their pen, and could add Chris Carpenter (their own, not the Cardinals guy) and/or Jay Jackson to that mix this spring if they wanted -- both are starting pitching prospects, but either could end up in the 'pen long-term, Carpenter more likely to do so than Jackson.

I'm not crazy about Thomas Diamond, but as the fourth or fifth right-hander in a 'pen he's more than adequate. Signing Wood could push the Cubs to try Cashner in the rotation again, although four months in relief with good-but-not-outstanding results along with his primarily fastball/slider repertoire still point to a long-term future in relief.

I'd rather see the team leave Cashner in relief and start turning games into six-inning affairs with him, Wood and Marmol ready for the last nine-plus outs whenever the Cubs have a lead.

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If you've been following the AL West this offseason, you've undoubtedly seen the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels make most of the headlines. Obviously, this isn't a surprise -- both clubs have been linked to big-time free agents, such as Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre. And other than the Oakland Athletics' brief pursuit of Beltre earlier this month, neither Oakland nor Seattle, the division's other two teams, have made much noise. But let's not forget about the A's. Now that we know that neither Crawford or Lee will be coming to the AL West, this division is as wide open as any. Here are five good reasons to believe Oakland will contend in 2011.

1. Luck evens out: Many years ago, Bill James developed a formula for what he called Pythagorean record in which he attempted to predict a team's record based on runs scored and allowed. Usually, a team that overperforms its Pythagorean record got a bit lucky, while the opposite is true for unlucky teams. According to Pythagorean record, the A's should have won 85.2 games in 2010, as opposed to the 81 they actually won. That difference of 4.2 games below expected was the largest in the American League.

What accounted for such a difference? An obvious factor was the A's performance with runners in scoring position. As a team, Oakland slugged .378, but with runners in scoring position that number was .335. It's impossible to string together big innings without getting extra-base hits with men on base. The performance of most teams in those two situations was within 15 points of each other; the A's difference of 43 points was the largest in the AL. That kind of gap isn't likely to repeat itself. Over time, players tend to perform with men on base as well as they do otherwise.

2. Don't mess with (David) DeJesus: Missing out on Beltre was a huge blow for the A's, who had the punchless Kevin Kouzmanoff (.679 OPS) at third base in 2010. If Oakland had signed Beltre, it might be the AL West favorite. But even without him, the A's made a huge upgrade by trading for David DeJesus. No, he's not a superstar, but he's an excellent defender and he's hit .300/.363/.443 over the past three years for the Kansas City Royals. In 2010, Gabe Gross hit .239/.290/.311 as the A's primary left fielder; DeJesus is an upgrade. The A's also added Hideki Matsui as their designated hitter, and he's a far more well-rounded hitter than three-true-outcomes superstar Jack Cust. Throw in a healthy Coco Crisp in center and reasonable bounce-back from Kurt Suzuki (his OPS dipped to .669 last year), and Oakland's offense will be far more formidable.

3. Their pitching is elite: The Mariners earned a lot of pub in 2010 for trying to win with a strict pitching-and-defense philosophy. As it turned out, their division rivals to the south are doing a much better job of it. Brett Anderson (2.80 ERA) and Trevor Cahill (2.97 ERA) are one of the best young one-two punches in the league, and Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez are mid-rotation stalwarts. These arms are aided by one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, and a defense that might be the best in the league. DeJesus, Crisp and right fielder Ryan Sweeney are all above-average at their positions, according to advanced defensive metrics, and first baseman Daric Barton just won his first Fielding Bible award.

4. They have pieces to trade: Things didn't exactly go as planned for A's prospects last season. Outfielder Grant Desme left for the priesthood, right fielder Michael Taylor couldn't seem to find his power stroke, and first baseman/outfielder Chris Carter began his career 0-for-33 after making it to the bigs in August. That's less than ideal, but hope is not lost. Shortstop Grant Green established himself as one of the better middle-infield prospects in the game with a strong season at high Class A, and Carter is certainly better than his first month in the majors indicated. Both players could contribute at some point in 2011, or they could be trade bait. The same can be said for right-hander Tyson Ross, who is expected to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation. With plenty of prospects who are close to the majors, there's good reason to believe the A's could be players in the trade market because ...

5. ... they have money to spend: With both Ben Sheets' and Eric Chavez's exorbitant salaries no longer on the A's books, general manager Billy Beane has a plethora of financial flexibility. Oakland currently has just $29.64 million committed for 2011, and while that will go up once all the arbitration cases are settled, the Opening Day payroll will be south of $50 million. For 2012, there's just $8.54 million committed. In other words, if the A's need to take on salary to trade for a player who will put them over the top, they are in great position to do so.

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proshares · Dec 20, 2010