Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.

It's easier to attain a player via trade, even if they have a no trade clause.  The chance of winning trumps stats.  Especially if the team they are going to agrees to an extension (Halladay).  Oswalt just wanted to win, and the Phillies presented that.

Cliff Lee obviously liked Philadelphia, both the city and organization.  The chance to win was obviously a factor as well.  Hamels came via draft, Blanton came via trade.

And as far as the Giants missing the playoffs goes....yes I have heard you mention that before.  Im not going to argue with you.  I would definitely say the Giants are the clear cut favorites to win the division, but its baseball.  Its not inconceivable that they dont do as well as people think they are going to and miss the playoffs.  Look at the Padres last season.  I think they make it, but you never know.
I just don't think they will get as lucky as they did last year.  Their pitching has always been great, the offense is bad and to top it off they sat on their %*% this off season while other teams at least tried to improve.  Saying they are the clear cut favorites to even win the West is laughable.  There is no clear cut favorite.
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Originally Posted by Proshares

I think they fleeced them regardless. I don't think much of the players they sent over
laugh.gif
my laughs were just towards the fact that they went from the Yankees package to that lackluster package they got from Milwaukee.
Click to expand...

How are they gonna go ask for almost every top Yankee prospect and then get back the players they did from Milwaukee?
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

I think they fleeced them regardless. I don't think much of the players they sent over
laugh.gif
my laughs were just towards the fact that they went from the Yankees package to that lackluster package they got from Milwaukee.
Click to expand...

How are they gonna go ask for almost every top Yankee prospect and then get back the players they did from Milwaukee?
 
Originally Posted by briannnnn

Originally Posted by Proshares

I think they fleeced them regardless. I don't think much of the players they sent over
laugh.gif
my laughs were just towards the fact that they went from the Yankees package to that lackluster package they got from Milwaukee.
Click to expand...
How are they gonna go ask for almost every top Yankee prospect and then get back the players they did from Milwaukee?
Click to expand...
But the Yankees didn't offer those players to them.  It's not like the Yankees came to them with some incredible package of that caliber, who knows if the Royals didn't approach the Brewers wanting some crazy return from them and the Brewers said, "No thanks, this is what we'll give you."

I think some Yankees fans, maybe due to the team's stature and history, tend to overvalue their offers in a "How dare they not want to make a deal with the Yankees!" sense.  If the responses that the Royals were getting after asking any teams for a number of their top prospects was that their asking price was too high, the package that they settled on could have fit them best and part of that could have to do with Grienke's input if he indeed had certain teams on his no-trade.  Separately, you also have to realize that scouts will view prospects differently and they also might fit their system's needs better.
 
Originally Posted by briannnnn

Originally Posted by Proshares

I think they fleeced them regardless. I don't think much of the players they sent over
laugh.gif
my laughs were just towards the fact that they went from the Yankees package to that lackluster package they got from Milwaukee.
Click to expand...
How are they gonna go ask for almost every top Yankee prospect and then get back the players they did from Milwaukee?
Click to expand...
But the Yankees didn't offer those players to them.  It's not like the Yankees came to them with some incredible package of that caliber, who knows if the Royals didn't approach the Brewers wanting some crazy return from them and the Brewers said, "No thanks, this is what we'll give you."

I think some Yankees fans, maybe due to the team's stature and history, tend to overvalue their offers in a "How dare they not want to make a deal with the Yankees!" sense.  If the responses that the Royals were getting after asking any teams for a number of their top prospects was that their asking price was too high, the package that they settled on could have fit them best and part of that could have to do with Grienke's input if he indeed had certain teams on his no-trade.  Separately, you also have to realize that scouts will view prospects differently and they also might fit their system's needs better.
 
The Phillies' signing of Cliff Lee has created the best barstool debate of the winter, the kind of question that has no right answer but is awful fun to talk about:

Who has the best rotation in the majors?

Here's one humble ranking of the Top 10 rotations in the majors (and I'm going to cheat and list 11). Keep in mind: this reflects that a pair of guys who could at least alter this list -- Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte -- remain uncommitted for 2011 as of this writing.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

Combine the 2010 results for Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, and this is what you get:

Games: 126
Innings: 883.1
Hits: 773
Earned runs: 279
Walks (and this is the most incredible number): 164
Strikeouts: 808
Earned run average: 2.84
Average innings per start: About 7

Those statistics are very, very special.

2. San Francisco Giants

The Giants posted the third-best ERA for any rotation in the majors, and then dominated in the postseason -- and here's something scary to think about: the Giants might actually be better in 2011. Tim Lincecum really seemed to learn from his adversity in August, working harder on his conditioning and adding a slider, and Madison Bumgarner showed his upside in the World Series. The concerns would be Jonathan Sanchez, who seemed to get very tired late last season, and Barry Zito, who posted a 4.70 ERA after the All-Star break.

3. Oakland Athletics

They very quietly posted the best starters' ERA in the majors last year, at 3.47, because of the incredible progression of Trevor Cahill and the excellence of Brett Anderson (when he wasn't dealing with injuries). Gio Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA in 33 starts, and Dallas Braden managed a 3.50 ERA in 30 starts. So long as Cahill and Anderson are healthy and productive, this will be a very tough group, with Brandon McCarthy or Rich Harden or somebody else working in the No. 5 spot.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Look, the Rays lost a bunch of guys in their everyday lineup and in their bullpen, and they may lose ground in the standings -- but their rotation should be excellent, with the developing Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson wrapped around David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields. Now, it would appear very possible that the Rays deal Garza before the July 31 trade deadline, and Shields is a key, coming off a season in which he really struggled in the second half; his ERA was a whopping 5.59, and he just seemed to have no idea how to fix what ailed him.

[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/US PresswireJon Lester and Clay Buchholz have become the more reliable starters for the Boston Red Sox.

5. Boston Red Sox

John Lackey and Josh Beckett were major disappointments for the Red Sox last season. But Clay Buchholz climbed into the elite tier of starters in the majors -- and Jon Lester was already there. Boston needs bounce-back seasons from Lackey and Beckett, not only in 2011, but in the years that follow, because the Red Sox have invested big dollars in both.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo is 24 years old, has the stuff to be a frontline starter and could benefit from playing for a contender, and Randy Wolf had a decent first season with the Brewers. And now you add Shaun Marcum, who was a good pitcher in the AL East and should be able to take advantage of the NL lineups, and Zack Greinke, who might have as much pure talent as any pitcher in the majors not named Felix Hernandez. It could be a special group.

7. Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is one of the best and is in his prime, going 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 224.1 innings last year, and Max Scherzer seemed to grow last year. In the same way, Rick Porcello overcame a horrendous start to pitch better down the stretch after he learned something about diagnosing his own mechanics pitch to pitch and inning to inning; Porcello, who turns 22 in a few days, lowered his ERA from 6.14 at the All-Star break to 4.00 in the second half. Phil Coke is expected to man one of the spots at the back end of the rotation.

8a. Atlanta Braves

Tim Hudson was a Cy Young candidate until a September fade, Derek Lowe was one of the majors' best pitchers down the stretch, Tommy Hanson was much better than his 10-11 win-loss record would indicate and the Braves would have reasonable hope that Jair Jurrjens -- crushed by injuries in 2010 -- will be better next summer.

8b. St. Louis Cardinals

Jaime Garcia was the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year for a lot of the season, and he will slot in third or fourth in this rotation, behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and perhaps ahead of Jake Westbrook. The key to this group is Carpenter, who faded down the stretch. If this was just a blip, rather than an indicator of things to come for Carpenter, who turns 36 in April, then St. Louis will have one of the best rotations in the majors.

10a. Los Angeles Dodgers

By the second half of last season, Clayton Kershaw achieved the kind of dominance projected for him when he was in the minors; Kershaw held opponents to a .179 average in September. The Dodgers have a good group behind Kershaw, with Ted Lilly (who had a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts for L.A. in 2010), the underrated Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley and Jon Garland.

10b. Chicago White Sox

They've got a nice core of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson, but the simple fact is that they have no idea what to expect out of Jake Peavy, who went 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. If Peavy bounces back, this could be an excellent rotation.

For the readers: Give us your top 10 (or 11).

By the way: On Tuesday, I sent out a mass e-mail to talent evaluators throughout baseball asking for their Top 5 rankings of rotations, and I'll present some of the results in Thursday's column.
[h3]Around the league[/h3]

• The Brewers' trade for Greinke is paying off in ticket sales.

• The Angels pulled their offer to Adrian Beltre off the table. Oakland, which has taken a major step forward with its offseason moves, would talk to Beltre again if Beltre wants to talk with the Athletics.

• It's almost Christmas and the Orioles don't have a first baseman. They have been talking with the representatives for Adam LaRoche about a three-year deal for something in the range of $21 million -- but if they finish that negotiation and sign LaRoche, that would mean that they would be putting him and Mark Reynolds back together, just a few months after the two finished the 2010 season with about 400 strikeouts for a last-place team. And Arizona considered that to be unworkable.

The Orioles have also been talking with Derrek Lee, for a deal somewhere in the range of $8 million. If that feels too pricey, here's an imperfect and much cheaper alternative -- but a combination that could result in good production. The Orioles could consider a platoon of sluggers at first base: Troy Glaus from the right side, and Russell Branyan or Jason Giambi from the left side.

This might cost the Orioles a total of $4 million or so. And consider:

•  Glaus' numbers against left-handed pitchers last year: A .371 on-base percentage, with five homers in 129 at-bats.

•  Giambi's numbers against right-handed pitchers last season: A .374 on-base percentage (and .390 against left-handed pitchers).

•  Branyan's numbers against right-handed pitchers: A .352 on-base percentage, with 19 homers and a .522 slugging percentage in 276 at-bats.

None of them is very good defensively, of course, but perhaps the Orioles could plan on finishing games with a utility player taking over the position; maybe they insert Cesar Izturis at third base in the late innings, with Reynolds moving to first.

The bottom line is this: If the Orioles aren't that excited about LaRoche -- if they feel they are settling for a third option after missing out on Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn -- then they shouldn't get locked into a three-year deal. They save money and spend the surplus on draft picks next summer.

The Orioles are currently at an impasse with LaRoche, writes Jeff Zrebiec. Maybe it's time for Baltimore to re-think the position.

• The Yankees' luxury-tax bill was significantly lower for 2010, writes Mark Feinsand.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Not much is available for the Yankees as they look for a starting pitcher, says Brian Cashman. Ivan Nova is having a dominant winter campaign.
Larry Rothschild will work with A.J. Burnett on fixes, writes Ken Davidoff.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

The biggest thing that has to change with Burnett is that he just needs to be in a better place mentally. His focus seemed absolutely fractured in the second half of last season, and because of that, he'd lose his mechanics during a start and never get them back.

2. Bobby Jenks is joining the Red Sox with something to prove, writes Daniel Barbarisi.

Here's some numbers which must change for Jenks:

His ERA in night games in 2010: 2.67
His ERA in day games in 2010: 6.85

3. Sandy Alderson is unlikely to sign any players until 2011, sources tell Andy Martino.

4. The Brewers brought back a pitcher into the fold.

5. The Indians signed Travis Buck.

6. Frank Wren says the Braves have the payroll to win.

7. The Rangers are making a move on Brandon Webb.

8. Rich Harden's signing is official, and officially, he will go to spring training preparing to be a starter, but open to the idea of shifting to the bullpen if starting doesn't work out.

9. The Padres acquired a backup catcher.
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]

Yesterday, I posted Stan Hochman's column about trying to pick a nickname for the Phillies' four starting pitchers. Readers kicked in some of their suggestions:

I'm probably not the first one to the punch on this one, but what about the "Fantastic Four"? Sure, the FF are New Yorkers, but hey, if we're at the point where someone thinks it's a good idea to make a Spider-Man musical, why not borrow a comic name for such a fearsome pitching rotation? Besides, analysts and color commentators love alliteration (I'll leave it up to the pros to decide which one is "The Thing"). -- Coops (Bowling Green, Ohio)

In regard to the Phillies' Halladay, Hamels, Lee, and Oswalt and their need of a nickname, how about "Amaro's Folly"? Something tells me this is a recipe for disaster, and I'm not just saying that because I've been a Braves fan since I knew what a baseball was. -- Christopolis, (Northampton, Mass.)

A suggestion for the Phils' rotation: The HHOLee Tetrinity -- Tom, (Boston, Mass.)
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Dan Shaughnessy writes about who he put on his Hall of Fame ballot. Here are Paul Daugherty's picks. I turned in my own ballot a couple of weeks ago with votes for: Roberto Alomar, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell and Mark McGwire.
• Broadcaster Pat Hughes got a five-year deal from the Cubs.

• Here is Part II of Michael Silverman's three-part series on Adrian Gonzalez.

• Bob Feller's pedestal never crumbled, writes Hal McCoy.

• A young pitcher signed with the Yankees.

• Given the trouble with the Metrodome, the Twins are looking at all their options for TwinsFest.

• Lenny Dykstra gave an interview that was ... interesting.

• The Mariners' highlight for 2010 will come on Dec. 31.

• As a fan of football, I hope that Brett Favre gears up to play one more game -- the final game of the regular season -- and that he runs off the field at the end, one last time. And as a fan of the Vikings, I'd be happy to give him back to the Packers after that, because regardless of what's happened over the past three years, he belongs in Green Bay, as an ornament of history.

And today will be better than yesterday.

[h3]Theo: Papelbon still the closer [/h3]
10:52AM ET

[h5]Jonathan Papelbon | Red Sox[/h5]


The Red Sox formally announced the signing of free agent reliever Bobby Jenks on Tuesday, giving general manager Theo Epstein another opportunity to declare that Jonathan Papelbon remains the closer.

"We kept Pap's agents up to speed the whole time as a courtesy, both earlier in the offseason and the last couple of weeks as we filled out our bullpen," Epstein said via MLB.com. "Then I left Pap a voicemail after we signed Jenks to let him know that we still see him as our closer and we've got two power setup guys to get him the ball in the ninth inning."

Epstein is saying all the right things to keep Papelbon happy, but the presence of Jenks and Daniel Bard gives the Sox an embarrassment of riches. Peter Abraham wrote in Friday's Boston Globe that the Red Sox plan to keep Papelbon as their closer but now have the flexibility to trade him if the right offer comes along.

The salary is the tough part; clubs aren't likely to give up much in return for taking on a $10-11 million number, and if the Red Sox throw in a large chunk of it, they'll certainly want at least one solid talent in return.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Braves, Uggla will get deal done[/h3]
10:26AM ET

[h5]Dan Uggla | Braves[/h5]


A report last week by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe said the Atlanta Braves and Dan Uggla were expected to sign a five-year contract extension worth around $61 million.

Some time has passed without a deal, but David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says that is not a cause for concern. "Fact is, the Braves and Uggla agreed after he was traded to the Braves in November that there was no great urgency to get an extension done, and both sides said they wanted it to happen and didn't see any reason it wouldn't," O'Brien writes.

The 30-year-old made $7.8 million last seasons and could have exceeded $10 million via arbitration this winter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Bullpen role for Harden?[/h3]
10:10AM ET

[h5]Rich Harden | Athletics[/h5]


The Oakland Athletics officially announced the signing of right-hander Rich Harden on Tuesday, but his role is still to be determined.

Assistant GM David Frost told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that Harden will be stretched out to start, but it's possible that he will wind up in relief, with recently signed Brandon McCarthy now in the fifth-starter mix along with Josh Outman, Bobby Cramer and Tyson Ross.

The A's are looking for additional relief help, but could re-enter the race for free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre. If Beltre were to land in Oakland, there would be far less cash available for an extra reliever, increasing the chances that Harden ends up in the bullpen.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]NYY rotation without Lee, Pettitte[/h3]
9:55AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees[/h5]


If Andy Pettitte decides to retire, the New York Yankees starting rotation will likely consist of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and an unknown option -- perhaps Sergio Mitre.

That's a three-deep rotation, but one without a legitimate and reliable No. 2 starter, barring a complete turnaround from Burnett or another large step forward for Hughes -- neither impossible developments.

The Yankees do have a few options in their minor league system to challenge Mitre and any other veteran invitees during a spring training battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, including right-handers Andrew Brackman and Dellin Betances. Both pitchers, however, might be on a strict pitch count or overall workload regimen; Brackman's career high is the 140 innings he threw a year ago and Betances, who managed just 85 1/3 in 2010, has tallied 100 or more frames just once since being drafted in 2006.

Many talent evaluators see Brackman as more of a late-inning reliever, too, but either prospect could conceivably hold down the No. 5 spot in the short term. It just doesn't seem very Yankee like and it doesn't appear Betances is going to be rushed.

Manny Banuelos, the top starting pitching prospect in the Yankees system, may be a year or so away from proving he's big-league ready, but the 19-year-old -- 20 in March -- did compete well in the Arizona Fall League in October and November, impressing scouts with his stuff, despite a lack of size. Perhaps Banuelos cruises through the upper minors and pushes for a call-up late in 2011.

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes Wednesday there is not much available to the Yankees because they waited too long on Cliff Lee.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]O's talks with LaRoche stalled[/h3]
9:49AM ET

[h5]Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks[/h5]


The Baltimore Orioles have swung and missed on various free agent options at first base, failing to land Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. That list may now include Adam LaRoche as well.

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports that contract talk with LaRoche are at an impasse and the Orioles have renewed discussions with Derrek Lee.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported last week that the left-handed hitting LaRoche, who hit 25 homers and drove in 100 runs for the D-backs last season, is seeking a three-year contract.

GM Andy MacPhail had hoped to have a first baseman in place before team executives break for the Christmas holiday, but that now appears unlikely.

Our Buster Olney says the O's could have another alternative:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Who?s on first in Baltimore?
"The Orioles have also been talking with Derrek Lee, for a deal somewhere in the range of $8 million. If that feels too pricey, here's an imperfect and much cheaper alternative -- but a combination that could result in good production. The Orioles could consider a platoon of sluggers at first base: Troy Glaus from the right side, and Russell Branyan or Jason Giambi from the left side."
Click to expand...

http://[h3]Could A's be back in Beltre chase?[/h3]
9:44AM ET

[h5]Adrian Beltre | Red Sox[/h5]


Adrian Beltre will have a new team at some point, but it appears unlikely he will putting a bow on a contract by Christmas morning.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported Tuesday that agent Scott Boras has informed some teams that he has a five-year, $70 million offer in hand for Beltre -- which is presumably from the Angels.

But there are hints that the Halos have dropped out of the Beltre sweepstakes, according to Joe McDonnel, after Beltre turned down the club's mega offer. McDonnel cites a source that says "there's no room for further negotiation."

The LA Times also reported that the offer was pulled, but said there is room for further negotiations.

FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal wrote Tuesday afternoon, that the Angels are still in on Beltre, but do not share Boras' assessment of his clients' value.

It's unclear at this stage who else is in on the third baseman, which makes things difficult for Angels GM Tony Reagins, who could end up bidding against himself.Angels third baseman hit an American League low .223 last season and have the most glaring need for Beltre.

Could this open the door for the Athletics? ESPN The Magazine's Buster Oleny writes in Wednesday's blog that Oakland, which has taken a major step forward with its offseason moves, would talk to Beltre again if the third baseman wants to talk with the Athletics.

The A's reportedly made a five-year, $64 million offer to Beltre earlier this season before pulling it off the table.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Heightened interest in Lee?[/h3]
9:19AM ET

[h5]Derrek Lee | Braves[/h5]


The free agent first base market is down to a few legitimate starters in Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee.

The Baltimore Orioles were believed to be in heavy pursuit of LaRoche, who is reportedly seeking a three-year deal, but the Baltimore Sun reports those talks have stalled and the team has renewed discussions with Lee.

Another contest in the game of musical chairs is the Nationals, who had interest in Carlos Pena. The Nats seemingly want a first baseman with some defensive ability and Lee qualifies.

FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted Monday that Lee is seeking a deal in the $8-10 million-per-season range, which is in line with what Pena received from the Cubs and what Lance Berkman received from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both players, however, received one-year deals, which is what Lee may have to settle for with so few suitors left on the market to drive up his price.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Aardsma to Rockies unlikely[/h3]
8:55AM ET

[h5]David Aardsma | Mariners[/h5]


We mentioned last week that the Seattle Mariners may be looking to deal closer David Aardsma as part of a cost-cutting move.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported Friday that Aardsma, a Colorado native who attended Cherry Creek High School in Englewood, is one of the relievers being considered by the Rockies.

That might not be a fit, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The Mariners are believed to be looking for an impact bat and Rockies have none that they wish to make available.

The Rockies lost out on Matt Guerrier because of their reluctance to extend any reliever a three-year contract, and reportedly are looking at Aardsma and free agents Grant Balfour, Todd Coffey and Jon Rauch.

Aardsma stands to earn a significant raise from $2.75 million this offseason and would be eligible for arbitration again next winter. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Thursday that the Mariners could try to replace Aardsma by signing free agent and Oregon native Kevin Gregg.

The M's might prefer a more established veteran such as Gregg, or they could stay in house with Brandon League if a deal for Aardsma goes down.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The market for Jeff Francis[/h3]
8:39AM ET

[h5]Jeff Francis | Rockies[/h5]


Free agent left-hander Jeff Francis has received calls from the Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers and Yankees, ESPN.com?s Jerry Crasnick tweeted Wednesday morning.

Crasnick says the teams have varying degrees in interest in Francis, who became a free agent when the Rockies turned down his $7.5 million option.

Francis was 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 20 games last season after missing all of the 2009 campaign following shoulder surgery. While Francis tired in the second half, Crasnick says medical reports on his shoulder have been positive.

Like Brandon Webb, Francis, who won 44 games between 2005 and 2007, has a potentially big upside for any team willing to take a chance.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Rangers leading Webb pursuit?[/h3]
8:00AM ET

[h5]Brandon Webb | Diamondbacks[/h5]


Available starting pitching is at a premium this offseason (which makes it no different than any other offseason), which explains why there is plenty of interest in Brandon Webb, who has not appeared in a game since Opening Day 2009.

Webb is attempting a comeback from shoulder surgery and a good fit would be theTexas Rangers, a franchise that has a history of going after former impact players who are looking for bounce-back seasons.

As T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com points out, Rangers GM Jon Daniels has signed, among others, Sammy Sosa, Eric Gagne and Andruw Jones in recent years. Sullivan says the Rangers have "legitimate interest" in Webb and the interest is "sincerely mutual" on the right-hander's part.

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported Tuesday the Rangers are still in on Webb and despite some reports to the contrary, the Nationals are still in the mix, too. Crasnick adds that the Chicago Cubs have fallen off the pace in the Webb sweepstakes.

Crasnick says the Rangers see Webb as a potential high-upside acquisition, even though he pitched a total of only four innings in 2009-10 because of shoulder problems. Dr. Keith Meister, Texas' team physician, did a cleanup of Webb's right shoulder in August 2009, and one club official recently told ESPN.com that Meister's familiarity with Webb's medical history has contributed to the team's "comfort level" with the pitcher.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Mets taking holidays off[/h3]
7:30AM ET

[h5]New York Mets[/h5]


New York Mets fans looking for a holiday free agent signing will be disappointed.According to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, it is highly unlikely the Mets will acquire any players until January.

Pitching is a priority and the Mets are believed to be serious interested in Chris Young, but Martino says the team has yet to extend the right-hander an offer.

The Mets have been linked to a number of other targets this offseason, including Jeff Francis and most recently Freddy Garcia, and could eventually show interest in Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano, Doug Davis or Dave Bush, most of whom will likely settle for one-year contracts.

Garcia is also being eyed by the Yankees, and Francis has a handful of suitors including the Rockies and Mariners.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Can the Cards counterpunch?[/h3]
7:03AM ET

[h5]St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs in 2010, losing the division to the young and developing Cincinnati Reds. This offseason, the Red Birds have watched the Milwaukee Brewers add Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke to their starting rotation, and combined with Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder on offense, appear to be a formidable contender for 2011. Can the Cardinals throw a counter punch to those moves? And if so, how?

The St. Louis Cardinals have few weaknesses, and did add Lance Berkman to their lineup, despite the chance that he's below average in the outfield, a position he hasn't played regularly since 2005. But even if they remain 100 percent healthy and Tony LaRussa stays out of the way of Colby Rasmus, do they match up with the Reds and Brewers? Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory says "yes they can," but if they need to make upgrades to do so, where might they come from?

The Cardinals have room for improvement in the middle of their infield, but the free agent market is dry for second baseman and shortstops. There is no other place to play Berkman but the outfield with Albert Pujols in town, which leaves the bench and bullpen as the main areas where GM John Mozeliak can make his club better.

Ryan Franklin is the current closer, with Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan and Mitchell Boggs serving as the bridge between starter and Franklin. But there are relief options on the market that can improve the seventh and eighth innings for St. Louis, including Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour, Chad Qualls and Kevin Gregg. Whether the Cards go after any of them remains to be seen, as it appears most or all of their financial resources are headed for Pujols' pocket soon. But they might have to do something to stay ahead of the game in now-competitive NL Central.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Who still needs starting pitching?[/h3]
7:03AM ET

[h5]Seeking Starting Pitching[/h5]

Despite the Milwaukee Brewers landing two starters via trade, the Phillies signing Cliff Lee and a number of free agents signing deals -- some back with the clubs with which they played a year ago, some with new organizations -- there are still several teams on the search for starting pitching this offseason.

Among those clubs are the Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, New York Mets and Texas Rangers, and depending on where free agent Carl Pavano ends up, the Minnesota Twins could join that list.

Another handful or clubs, including the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs, lack the necessary arms to fill out a rotation if the season started today, barring the reliance on a risky veteran -- such as the Mariners with Erik Bedard -- or a prospect stepping up from day one.

Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, Chris Young, Bruce Chen, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Kevin Millwood and Brad Penny "highlight" the remaining free agent crop, with Andy Pettitte on the Yankees wish list.

There are a few more trade possibilities as well, with the Rays' James Shields or Matt Garza potentially changing zip codes this winter, and the idea that the Rangers may transition either Alexi Ogando or closer Neftali Feliz into a starter if they can't fill the role externally.
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The Phillies' signing of Cliff Lee has created the best barstool debate of the winter, the kind of question that has no right answer but is awful fun to talk about:

Who has the best rotation in the majors?

Here's one humble ranking of the Top 10 rotations in the majors (and I'm going to cheat and list 11). Keep in mind: this reflects that a pair of guys who could at least alter this list -- Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte -- remain uncommitted for 2011 as of this writing.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

Combine the 2010 results for Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, and this is what you get:

Games: 126
Innings: 883.1
Hits: 773
Earned runs: 279
Walks (and this is the most incredible number): 164
Strikeouts: 808
Earned run average: 2.84
Average innings per start: About 7

Those statistics are very, very special.

2. San Francisco Giants

The Giants posted the third-best ERA for any rotation in the majors, and then dominated in the postseason -- and here's something scary to think about: the Giants might actually be better in 2011. Tim Lincecum really seemed to learn from his adversity in August, working harder on his conditioning and adding a slider, and Madison Bumgarner showed his upside in the World Series. The concerns would be Jonathan Sanchez, who seemed to get very tired late last season, and Barry Zito, who posted a 4.70 ERA after the All-Star break.

3. Oakland Athletics

They very quietly posted the best starters' ERA in the majors last year, at 3.47, because of the incredible progression of Trevor Cahill and the excellence of Brett Anderson (when he wasn't dealing with injuries). Gio Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA in 33 starts, and Dallas Braden managed a 3.50 ERA in 30 starts. So long as Cahill and Anderson are healthy and productive, this will be a very tough group, with Brandon McCarthy or Rich Harden or somebody else working in the No. 5 spot.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Look, the Rays lost a bunch of guys in their everyday lineup and in their bullpen, and they may lose ground in the standings -- but their rotation should be excellent, with the developing Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson wrapped around David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields. Now, it would appear very possible that the Rays deal Garza before the July 31 trade deadline, and Shields is a key, coming off a season in which he really struggled in the second half; his ERA was a whopping 5.59, and he just seemed to have no idea how to fix what ailed him.

[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/US PresswireJon Lester and Clay Buchholz have become the more reliable starters for the Boston Red Sox.

5. Boston Red Sox

John Lackey and Josh Beckett were major disappointments for the Red Sox last season. But Clay Buchholz climbed into the elite tier of starters in the majors -- and Jon Lester was already there. Boston needs bounce-back seasons from Lackey and Beckett, not only in 2011, but in the years that follow, because the Red Sox have invested big dollars in both.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo is 24 years old, has the stuff to be a frontline starter and could benefit from playing for a contender, and Randy Wolf had a decent first season with the Brewers. And now you add Shaun Marcum, who was a good pitcher in the AL East and should be able to take advantage of the NL lineups, and Zack Greinke, who might have as much pure talent as any pitcher in the majors not named Felix Hernandez. It could be a special group.

7. Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is one of the best and is in his prime, going 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 224.1 innings last year, and Max Scherzer seemed to grow last year. In the same way, Rick Porcello overcame a horrendous start to pitch better down the stretch after he learned something about diagnosing his own mechanics pitch to pitch and inning to inning; Porcello, who turns 22 in a few days, lowered his ERA from 6.14 at the All-Star break to 4.00 in the second half. Phil Coke is expected to man one of the spots at the back end of the rotation.

8a. Atlanta Braves

Tim Hudson was a Cy Young candidate until a September fade, Derek Lowe was one of the majors' best pitchers down the stretch, Tommy Hanson was much better than his 10-11 win-loss record would indicate and the Braves would have reasonable hope that Jair Jurrjens -- crushed by injuries in 2010 -- will be better next summer.

8b. St. Louis Cardinals

Jaime Garcia was the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year for a lot of the season, and he will slot in third or fourth in this rotation, behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and perhaps ahead of Jake Westbrook. The key to this group is Carpenter, who faded down the stretch. If this was just a blip, rather than an indicator of things to come for Carpenter, who turns 36 in April, then St. Louis will have one of the best rotations in the majors.

10a. Los Angeles Dodgers

By the second half of last season, Clayton Kershaw achieved the kind of dominance projected for him when he was in the minors; Kershaw held opponents to a .179 average in September. The Dodgers have a good group behind Kershaw, with Ted Lilly (who had a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts for L.A. in 2010), the underrated Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley and Jon Garland.

10b. Chicago White Sox

They've got a nice core of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson, but the simple fact is that they have no idea what to expect out of Jake Peavy, who went 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. If Peavy bounces back, this could be an excellent rotation.

For the readers: Give us your top 10 (or 11).

By the way: On Tuesday, I sent out a mass e-mail to talent evaluators throughout baseball asking for their Top 5 rankings of rotations, and I'll present some of the results in Thursday's column.
[h3]Around the league[/h3]

• The Brewers' trade for Greinke is paying off in ticket sales.

• The Angels pulled their offer to Adrian Beltre off the table. Oakland, which has taken a major step forward with its offseason moves, would talk to Beltre again if Beltre wants to talk with the Athletics.

• It's almost Christmas and the Orioles don't have a first baseman. They have been talking with the representatives for Adam LaRoche about a three-year deal for something in the range of $21 million -- but if they finish that negotiation and sign LaRoche, that would mean that they would be putting him and Mark Reynolds back together, just a few months after the two finished the 2010 season with about 400 strikeouts for a last-place team. And Arizona considered that to be unworkable.

The Orioles have also been talking with Derrek Lee, for a deal somewhere in the range of $8 million. If that feels too pricey, here's an imperfect and much cheaper alternative -- but a combination that could result in good production. The Orioles could consider a platoon of sluggers at first base: Troy Glaus from the right side, and Russell Branyan or Jason Giambi from the left side.

This might cost the Orioles a total of $4 million or so. And consider:

•  Glaus' numbers against left-handed pitchers last year: A .371 on-base percentage, with five homers in 129 at-bats.

•  Giambi's numbers against right-handed pitchers last season: A .374 on-base percentage (and .390 against left-handed pitchers).

•  Branyan's numbers against right-handed pitchers: A .352 on-base percentage, with 19 homers and a .522 slugging percentage in 276 at-bats.

None of them is very good defensively, of course, but perhaps the Orioles could plan on finishing games with a utility player taking over the position; maybe they insert Cesar Izturis at third base in the late innings, with Reynolds moving to first.

The bottom line is this: If the Orioles aren't that excited about LaRoche -- if they feel they are settling for a third option after missing out on Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn -- then they shouldn't get locked into a three-year deal. They save money and spend the surplus on draft picks next summer.

The Orioles are currently at an impasse with LaRoche, writes Jeff Zrebiec. Maybe it's time for Baltimore to re-think the position.

• The Yankees' luxury-tax bill was significantly lower for 2010, writes Mark Feinsand.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Not much is available for the Yankees as they look for a starting pitcher, says Brian Cashman. Ivan Nova is having a dominant winter campaign.
Larry Rothschild will work with A.J. Burnett on fixes, writes Ken Davidoff.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

The biggest thing that has to change with Burnett is that he just needs to be in a better place mentally. His focus seemed absolutely fractured in the second half of last season, and because of that, he'd lose his mechanics during a start and never get them back.

2. Bobby Jenks is joining the Red Sox with something to prove, writes Daniel Barbarisi.

Here's some numbers which must change for Jenks:

His ERA in night games in 2010: 2.67
His ERA in day games in 2010: 6.85

3. Sandy Alderson is unlikely to sign any players until 2011, sources tell Andy Martino.

4. The Brewers brought back a pitcher into the fold.

5. The Indians signed Travis Buck.

6. Frank Wren says the Braves have the payroll to win.

7. The Rangers are making a move on Brandon Webb.

8. Rich Harden's signing is official, and officially, he will go to spring training preparing to be a starter, but open to the idea of shifting to the bullpen if starting doesn't work out.

9. The Padres acquired a backup catcher.
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]

Yesterday, I posted Stan Hochman's column about trying to pick a nickname for the Phillies' four starting pitchers. Readers kicked in some of their suggestions:

I'm probably not the first one to the punch on this one, but what about the "Fantastic Four"? Sure, the FF are New Yorkers, but hey, if we're at the point where someone thinks it's a good idea to make a Spider-Man musical, why not borrow a comic name for such a fearsome pitching rotation? Besides, analysts and color commentators love alliteration (I'll leave it up to the pros to decide which one is "The Thing"). -- Coops (Bowling Green, Ohio)

In regard to the Phillies' Halladay, Hamels, Lee, and Oswalt and their need of a nickname, how about "Amaro's Folly"? Something tells me this is a recipe for disaster, and I'm not just saying that because I've been a Braves fan since I knew what a baseball was. -- Christopolis, (Northampton, Mass.)

A suggestion for the Phils' rotation: The HHOLee Tetrinity -- Tom, (Boston, Mass.)
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Dan Shaughnessy writes about who he put on his Hall of Fame ballot. Here are Paul Daugherty's picks. I turned in my own ballot a couple of weeks ago with votes for: Roberto Alomar, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell and Mark McGwire.
• Broadcaster Pat Hughes got a five-year deal from the Cubs.

• Here is Part II of Michael Silverman's three-part series on Adrian Gonzalez.

• Bob Feller's pedestal never crumbled, writes Hal McCoy.

• A young pitcher signed with the Yankees.

• Given the trouble with the Metrodome, the Twins are looking at all their options for TwinsFest.

• Lenny Dykstra gave an interview that was ... interesting.

• The Mariners' highlight for 2010 will come on Dec. 31.

• As a fan of football, I hope that Brett Favre gears up to play one more game -- the final game of the regular season -- and that he runs off the field at the end, one last time. And as a fan of the Vikings, I'd be happy to give him back to the Packers after that, because regardless of what's happened over the past three years, he belongs in Green Bay, as an ornament of history.

And today will be better than yesterday.

[h3]Theo: Papelbon still the closer [/h3]
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[h5]Jonathan Papelbon | Red Sox[/h5]


The Red Sox formally announced the signing of free agent reliever Bobby Jenks on Tuesday, giving general manager Theo Epstein another opportunity to declare that Jonathan Papelbon remains the closer.

"We kept Pap's agents up to speed the whole time as a courtesy, both earlier in the offseason and the last couple of weeks as we filled out our bullpen," Epstein said via MLB.com. "Then I left Pap a voicemail after we signed Jenks to let him know that we still see him as our closer and we've got two power setup guys to get him the ball in the ninth inning."

Epstein is saying all the right things to keep Papelbon happy, but the presence of Jenks and Daniel Bard gives the Sox an embarrassment of riches. Peter Abraham wrote in Friday's Boston Globe that the Red Sox plan to keep Papelbon as their closer but now have the flexibility to trade him if the right offer comes along.

The salary is the tough part; clubs aren't likely to give up much in return for taking on a $10-11 million number, and if the Red Sox throw in a large chunk of it, they'll certainly want at least one solid talent in return.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Braves, Uggla will get deal done[/h3]
10:26AM ET

[h5]Dan Uggla | Braves[/h5]


A report last week by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe said the Atlanta Braves and Dan Uggla were expected to sign a five-year contract extension worth around $61 million.

Some time has passed without a deal, but David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says that is not a cause for concern. "Fact is, the Braves and Uggla agreed after he was traded to the Braves in November that there was no great urgency to get an extension done, and both sides said they wanted it to happen and didn't see any reason it wouldn't," O'Brien writes.

The 30-year-old made $7.8 million last seasons and could have exceeded $10 million via arbitration this winter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Bullpen role for Harden?[/h3]
10:10AM ET

[h5]Rich Harden | Athletics[/h5]


The Oakland Athletics officially announced the signing of right-hander Rich Harden on Tuesday, but his role is still to be determined.

Assistant GM David Frost told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that Harden will be stretched out to start, but it's possible that he will wind up in relief, with recently signed Brandon McCarthy now in the fifth-starter mix along with Josh Outman, Bobby Cramer and Tyson Ross.

The A's are looking for additional relief help, but could re-enter the race for free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre. If Beltre were to land in Oakland, there would be far less cash available for an extra reliever, increasing the chances that Harden ends up in the bullpen.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]NYY rotation without Lee, Pettitte[/h3]
9:55AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees[/h5]


If Andy Pettitte decides to retire, the New York Yankees starting rotation will likely consist of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and an unknown option -- perhaps Sergio Mitre.

That's a three-deep rotation, but one without a legitimate and reliable No. 2 starter, barring a complete turnaround from Burnett or another large step forward for Hughes -- neither impossible developments.

The Yankees do have a few options in their minor league system to challenge Mitre and any other veteran invitees during a spring training battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, including right-handers Andrew Brackman and Dellin Betances. Both pitchers, however, might be on a strict pitch count or overall workload regimen; Brackman's career high is the 140 innings he threw a year ago and Betances, who managed just 85 1/3 in 2010, has tallied 100 or more frames just once since being drafted in 2006.

Many talent evaluators see Brackman as more of a late-inning reliever, too, but either prospect could conceivably hold down the No. 5 spot in the short term. It just doesn't seem very Yankee like and it doesn't appear Betances is going to be rushed.

Manny Banuelos, the top starting pitching prospect in the Yankees system, may be a year or so away from proving he's big-league ready, but the 19-year-old -- 20 in March -- did compete well in the Arizona Fall League in October and November, impressing scouts with his stuff, despite a lack of size. Perhaps Banuelos cruises through the upper minors and pushes for a call-up late in 2011.

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes Wednesday there is not much available to the Yankees because they waited too long on Cliff Lee.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]O's talks with LaRoche stalled[/h3]
9:49AM ET

[h5]Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks[/h5]


The Baltimore Orioles have swung and missed on various free agent options at first base, failing to land Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. That list may now include Adam LaRoche as well.

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports that contract talk with LaRoche are at an impasse and the Orioles have renewed discussions with Derrek Lee.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported last week that the left-handed hitting LaRoche, who hit 25 homers and drove in 100 runs for the D-backs last season, is seeking a three-year contract.

GM Andy MacPhail had hoped to have a first baseman in place before team executives break for the Christmas holiday, but that now appears unlikely.

Our Buster Olney says the O's could have another alternative:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Who?s on first in Baltimore?
"The Orioles have also been talking with Derrek Lee, for a deal somewhere in the range of $8 million. If that feels too pricey, here's an imperfect and much cheaper alternative -- but a combination that could result in good production. The Orioles could consider a platoon of sluggers at first base: Troy Glaus from the right side, and Russell Branyan or Jason Giambi from the left side."
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http://[h3]Could A's be back in Beltre chase?[/h3]
9:44AM ET

[h5]Adrian Beltre | Red Sox[/h5]


Adrian Beltre will have a new team at some point, but it appears unlikely he will putting a bow on a contract by Christmas morning.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported Tuesday that agent Scott Boras has informed some teams that he has a five-year, $70 million offer in hand for Beltre -- which is presumably from the Angels.

But there are hints that the Halos have dropped out of the Beltre sweepstakes, according to Joe McDonnel, after Beltre turned down the club's mega offer. McDonnel cites a source that says "there's no room for further negotiation."

The LA Times also reported that the offer was pulled, but said there is room for further negotiations.

FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal wrote Tuesday afternoon, that the Angels are still in on Beltre, but do not share Boras' assessment of his clients' value.

It's unclear at this stage who else is in on the third baseman, which makes things difficult for Angels GM Tony Reagins, who could end up bidding against himself.Angels third baseman hit an American League low .223 last season and have the most glaring need for Beltre.

Could this open the door for the Athletics? ESPN The Magazine's Buster Oleny writes in Wednesday's blog that Oakland, which has taken a major step forward with its offseason moves, would talk to Beltre again if the third baseman wants to talk with the Athletics.

The A's reportedly made a five-year, $64 million offer to Beltre earlier this season before pulling it off the table.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Heightened interest in Lee?[/h3]
9:19AM ET

[h5]Derrek Lee | Braves[/h5]


The free agent first base market is down to a few legitimate starters in Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee.

The Baltimore Orioles were believed to be in heavy pursuit of LaRoche, who is reportedly seeking a three-year deal, but the Baltimore Sun reports those talks have stalled and the team has renewed discussions with Lee.

Another contest in the game of musical chairs is the Nationals, who had interest in Carlos Pena. The Nats seemingly want a first baseman with some defensive ability and Lee qualifies.

FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted Monday that Lee is seeking a deal in the $8-10 million-per-season range, which is in line with what Pena received from the Cubs and what Lance Berkman received from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both players, however, received one-year deals, which is what Lee may have to settle for with so few suitors left on the market to drive up his price.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Aardsma to Rockies unlikely[/h3]
8:55AM ET

[h5]David Aardsma | Mariners[/h5]


We mentioned last week that the Seattle Mariners may be looking to deal closer David Aardsma as part of a cost-cutting move.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported Friday that Aardsma, a Colorado native who attended Cherry Creek High School in Englewood, is one of the relievers being considered by the Rockies.

That might not be a fit, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The Mariners are believed to be looking for an impact bat and Rockies have none that they wish to make available.

The Rockies lost out on Matt Guerrier because of their reluctance to extend any reliever a three-year contract, and reportedly are looking at Aardsma and free agents Grant Balfour, Todd Coffey and Jon Rauch.

Aardsma stands to earn a significant raise from $2.75 million this offseason and would be eligible for arbitration again next winter. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Thursday that the Mariners could try to replace Aardsma by signing free agent and Oregon native Kevin Gregg.

The M's might prefer a more established veteran such as Gregg, or they could stay in house with Brandon League if a deal for Aardsma goes down.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The market for Jeff Francis[/h3]
8:39AM ET

[h5]Jeff Francis | Rockies[/h5]


Free agent left-hander Jeff Francis has received calls from the Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers and Yankees, ESPN.com?s Jerry Crasnick tweeted Wednesday morning.

Crasnick says the teams have varying degrees in interest in Francis, who became a free agent when the Rockies turned down his $7.5 million option.

Francis was 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 20 games last season after missing all of the 2009 campaign following shoulder surgery. While Francis tired in the second half, Crasnick says medical reports on his shoulder have been positive.

Like Brandon Webb, Francis, who won 44 games between 2005 and 2007, has a potentially big upside for any team willing to take a chance.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Rangers leading Webb pursuit?[/h3]
8:00AM ET

[h5]Brandon Webb | Diamondbacks[/h5]


Available starting pitching is at a premium this offseason (which makes it no different than any other offseason), which explains why there is plenty of interest in Brandon Webb, who has not appeared in a game since Opening Day 2009.

Webb is attempting a comeback from shoulder surgery and a good fit would be theTexas Rangers, a franchise that has a history of going after former impact players who are looking for bounce-back seasons.

As T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com points out, Rangers GM Jon Daniels has signed, among others, Sammy Sosa, Eric Gagne and Andruw Jones in recent years. Sullivan says the Rangers have "legitimate interest" in Webb and the interest is "sincerely mutual" on the right-hander's part.

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported Tuesday the Rangers are still in on Webb and despite some reports to the contrary, the Nationals are still in the mix, too. Crasnick adds that the Chicago Cubs have fallen off the pace in the Webb sweepstakes.

Crasnick says the Rangers see Webb as a potential high-upside acquisition, even though he pitched a total of only four innings in 2009-10 because of shoulder problems. Dr. Keith Meister, Texas' team physician, did a cleanup of Webb's right shoulder in August 2009, and one club official recently told ESPN.com that Meister's familiarity with Webb's medical history has contributed to the team's "comfort level" with the pitcher.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Mets taking holidays off[/h3]
7:30AM ET

[h5]New York Mets[/h5]


New York Mets fans looking for a holiday free agent signing will be disappointed.According to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, it is highly unlikely the Mets will acquire any players until January.

Pitching is a priority and the Mets are believed to be serious interested in Chris Young, but Martino says the team has yet to extend the right-hander an offer.

The Mets have been linked to a number of other targets this offseason, including Jeff Francis and most recently Freddy Garcia, and could eventually show interest in Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano, Doug Davis or Dave Bush, most of whom will likely settle for one-year contracts.

Garcia is also being eyed by the Yankees, and Francis has a handful of suitors including the Rockies and Mariners.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Can the Cards counterpunch?[/h3]
7:03AM ET

[h5]St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs in 2010, losing the division to the young and developing Cincinnati Reds. This offseason, the Red Birds have watched the Milwaukee Brewers add Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke to their starting rotation, and combined with Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder on offense, appear to be a formidable contender for 2011. Can the Cardinals throw a counter punch to those moves? And if so, how?

The St. Louis Cardinals have few weaknesses, and did add Lance Berkman to their lineup, despite the chance that he's below average in the outfield, a position he hasn't played regularly since 2005. But even if they remain 100 percent healthy and Tony LaRussa stays out of the way of Colby Rasmus, do they match up with the Reds and Brewers? Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory says "yes they can," but if they need to make upgrades to do so, where might they come from?

The Cardinals have room for improvement in the middle of their infield, but the free agent market is dry for second baseman and shortstops. There is no other place to play Berkman but the outfield with Albert Pujols in town, which leaves the bench and bullpen as the main areas where GM John Mozeliak can make his club better.

Ryan Franklin is the current closer, with Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan and Mitchell Boggs serving as the bridge between starter and Franklin. But there are relief options on the market that can improve the seventh and eighth innings for St. Louis, including Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour, Chad Qualls and Kevin Gregg. Whether the Cards go after any of them remains to be seen, as it appears most or all of their financial resources are headed for Pujols' pocket soon. But they might have to do something to stay ahead of the game in now-competitive NL Central.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Who still needs starting pitching?[/h3]
7:03AM ET

[h5]Seeking Starting Pitching[/h5]

Despite the Milwaukee Brewers landing two starters via trade, the Phillies signing Cliff Lee and a number of free agents signing deals -- some back with the clubs with which they played a year ago, some with new organizations -- there are still several teams on the search for starting pitching this offseason.

Among those clubs are the Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, New York Mets and Texas Rangers, and depending on where free agent Carl Pavano ends up, the Minnesota Twins could join that list.

Another handful or clubs, including the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs, lack the necessary arms to fill out a rotation if the season started today, barring the reliance on a risky veteran -- such as the Mariners with Erik Bedard -- or a prospect stepping up from day one.

Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, Chris Young, Bruce Chen, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Kevin Millwood and Brad Penny "highlight" the remaining free agent crop, with Andy Pettitte on the Yankees wish list.

There are a few more trade possibilities as well, with the Rays' James Shields or Matt Garza potentially changing zip codes this winter, and the idea that the Rangers may transition either Alexi Ogando or closer Neftali Feliz into a starter if they can't fill the role externally.
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What it comes down to is, Kansas City was willing to take significantly less to trade him out of the American League... That, in itself, is monumentally stupid.

If I'm trading the best pitcher on the market, I want at least one blue chip, cornerstone prospect. They didn't get that.

It may turn out well for them. But on the surface, it doesn't look good to almost anybody right now.
 
What it comes down to is, Kansas City was willing to take significantly less to trade him out of the American League... That, in itself, is monumentally stupid.

If I'm trading the best pitcher on the market, I want at least one blue chip, cornerstone prospect. They didn't get that.

It may turn out well for them. But on the surface, it doesn't look good to almost anybody right now.
 
I assume they also thought they could get a lot more from the Yanks after losing out on Lee thinking the Yanks might make a desperate move.  When they didn't, they took the best they could get, moving him to the NL as an added bonus perhaps? 
 
I assume they also thought they could get a lot more from the Yanks after losing out on Lee thinking the Yanks might make a desperate move.  When they didn't, they took the best they could get, moving him to the NL as an added bonus perhaps? 
 
Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

What it comes down to is, Kansas City was willing to take significantly less to trade him out of the American League...
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Why would they care where he plays? As if the Royals are going to be relevant any time soon anyway. They just gave the only player worth a damn that they've had since Beltran.
 
Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

What it comes down to is, Kansas City was willing to take significantly less to trade him out of the American League...
Click to expand...


Why would they care where he plays? As if the Royals are going to be relevant any time soon anyway. They just gave the only player worth a damn that they've had since Beltran.
 
Originally Posted by JPZx

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

What it comes down to is, Kansas City was willing to take significantly less to trade him out of the American League...
Click to expand...
Why would they care where he plays? As if the Royals are going to be relevant any time soon anyway. They just gave the only player worth a damn that they've had since Beltran.
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They shouldn't have cared... Don't want to trade him to Minnesota? Fine. But taking a lesser package from Milwaukee than you demanded from New York and Texas?
laugh.gif


The Rangers supposedly had an offer on the table of Scheppers, Jurickson Profar and Engel Beltre with a PBTNL group for KC to choose from...
 
Originally Posted by JPZx

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

What it comes down to is, Kansas City was willing to take significantly less to trade him out of the American League...
Click to expand...
Why would they care where he plays? As if the Royals are going to be relevant any time soon anyway. They just gave the only player worth a damn that they've had since Beltran.
Click to expand...
They shouldn't have cared... Don't want to trade him to Minnesota? Fine. But taking a lesser package from Milwaukee than you demanded from New York and Texas?
laugh.gif


The Rangers supposedly had an offer on the table of Scheppers, Jurickson Profar and Engel Beltre with a PBTNL group for KC to choose from...
 
Originally Posted by ooIRON MANoo


And as far as the Giants missing the playoffs goes....yes I have heard you mention that before.  Im not going to argue with you.  I would definitely say the Giants are the clear cut favorites to win the division, but its baseball.  Its not inconceivable that they dont do as well as people think they are going to and miss the playoffs.  Look at the Padres last season.  I think they make it, but you never know.
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I just don't think they will get as lucky as they did last year.  Their pitching has always been great, the offense is bad and to top it off they sat on their %*% this off season while other teams at least tried to improve.  Saying they are the clear cut favorites to even win the West is laughable.  There is no clear cut favorite.

Las Vegas oddsmakers strongly disagree with you.  No offense bro, but I think their opinion is exponentially more valid than yours.  The Giants are the clear cut favorites to win the NL West, regardless if they do or not.
 
Originally Posted by ooIRON MANoo


And as far as the Giants missing the playoffs goes....yes I have heard you mention that before.  Im not going to argue with you.  I would definitely say the Giants are the clear cut favorites to win the division, but its baseball.  Its not inconceivable that they dont do as well as people think they are going to and miss the playoffs.  Look at the Padres last season.  I think they make it, but you never know.
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I just don't think they will get as lucky as they did last year.  Their pitching has always been great, the offense is bad and to top it off they sat on their %*% this off season while other teams at least tried to improve.  Saying they are the clear cut favorites to even win the West is laughable.  There is no clear cut favorite.

Las Vegas oddsmakers strongly disagree with you.  No offense bro, but I think their opinion is exponentially more valid than yours.  The Giants are the clear cut favorites to win the NL West, regardless if they do or not.
 
Odds makers only have the Giants as the favorites because they won the World Series. Doesn't necessarily mean they're the best team in the West. If the Rockies get another pitcher to step up, they're winning the West.
 
Odds makers only have the Giants as the favorites because they won the World Series. Doesn't necessarily mean they're the best team in the West. If the Rockies get another pitcher to step up, they're winning the West.
 
The giants are the fav to win the west based on that they are the defending NL west champs. Who in NL west got better?
 
The giants are the fav to win the west based on that they are the defending NL west champs. Who in NL west got better?
 
Originally Posted by JohnnyRedStorm

Odds makers only have the Giants as the favorites because they won the World Series. Doesn't necessarily mean they're the best team in the West. If the Rockies get another pitcher to step up, they're winning the West.
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Is this serious?  Odds makers have the Giants as the favorites because......they are the favorites.  Period.
If the Rockies get some pitchers to step up, they will win the west.

If the Dodgers start to hit the ball and their pitchers somehow pitch well again, they will win the west.

If the Padres pitchers can have similar seasons to last year, and a hitter or 2 step up, they will win the west.

If the Giants pitching staff doesnt stay healthy they wont win the west.

If, if, if.  Anything can happen in 2011.  You can play the if game all day.  Doesnt change the fact that the Giants are the favorites to win the West.
 
Originally Posted by JohnnyRedStorm

Odds makers only have the Giants as the favorites because they won the World Series. Doesn't necessarily mean they're the best team in the West. If the Rockies get another pitcher to step up, they're winning the West.
Click to expand...
Is this serious?  Odds makers have the Giants as the favorites because......they are the favorites.  Period.
If the Rockies get some pitchers to step up, they will win the west.

If the Dodgers start to hit the ball and their pitchers somehow pitch well again, they will win the west.

If the Padres pitchers can have similar seasons to last year, and a hitter or 2 step up, they will win the west.

If the Giants pitching staff doesnt stay healthy they wont win the west.

If, if, if.  Anything can happen in 2011.  You can play the if game all day.  Doesnt change the fact that the Giants are the favorites to win the West.
 
After the Yankees finished third in the Cliff Lee bidding, their response has been to wait -- to be patient, to rely on the group of stars already in place and bide their time for the next big deal. Nobody could have fit the Yankees more perfectly in the way that Lee could have.

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Jerry Lai/US PresswireBeltre's presence would make Texas' left side outstanding.

And along the same lines, Lee was the perfectly shaped piece for the Rangers, too, who have a relatively young rotation. But unlike the Yankees, Texas is once again looking to be aggressive in the aftermath of the Lee decision. Our Enrique Rojas is reporting that Texas and Beltre are deep into discussions about a long-term contract, an idea that the Rangers began tinkering with during the winter meetings, when they kicked around the notion of signing Beltre and perhaps trading veteran Michael Young.

The Beltre negotiations have taken many twists and turns, and more are possible. The third baseman wanted to go back to Boston, but after the Red Sox balked at Scott Boras' demands, they traded for Adrian Gonzalez and committed themselves to moving Kevin Youkilis to third -- a lightning strike which stunned Beltre. Oakland probably has wanted Beltre more than any other team, but time and again, Beltre has turned down the Athletics' overtures, including a five-year, $64 million offer.

After the Angels lost out on Carl Crawford, the presumption within the industry was that Arte Moreno would invest his available millions and go after the third baseman, in spite of the past tension with Boras. But after the Angels made an offer to Beltre -- said by sources to be five years and $70 million -- and the third baseman didn't immediately accept, the team pulled the offer off the table.

The Rangers' interest in Beltre is 100 percent sincere, because he makes them a better team.

Advance scouts respected Young's efforts to play third base but thought he was average on his best days and much less than that on this worst. If the Rangers shift Young to a DH/utility type of role, using him at all infield positions occasionally to spell the regulars, and install Beltre at third base, they would immediately have the best left side of any infield in the majors, with shortstop Elvis Andrus and Beltre teamed together. The third baseman consistently ranks at or near the top of the defensive metrics for all players at his position, and is generally regarded by advance scouts to be the best fielding third baseman. Andrus' range is excellent, he's smart, and like Beltre, he has a reputation for caring a lot about what he does; at the World Series, Rangers manager Ron Washington talked about how Andrus is the most mature player in the way he views and processes the game, of anyone he has ever been around. (At the World Series, one member of the Rangers' organization told me that Andrus is, even at his very young age, the smartest baserunner that Texas has. "It's not even close," he said, meaning that more as an appreciation of Andrus' aptitude rather than an indictment of the other players).

Will the Angels try to jump into the mix late to prevent Beltre from going to their most daunting division rival? In the end, will Beltre decide to play for the Angels, whose ballpark is within a short ride of Beltre's Southern California home? Or has Moreno drawn a line in the sand, again, with an unusual negotiating style that is designed for quick strikes and to prevent the Angels' offers from being shopped -- a style that hasn't yielded any frontline free agents since Torii Hunter.

The bottom line to this is that if the Angels don't get Beltre and the Rangers do, the gap between the Angels and the Rangers will grow again, and Texas' everyday lineup -- which was good enough to reach the World Series last year -- will have a chance to be even better, looking something like this:

SS Andrus
DH Young
CF Josh Hamilton
3B Beltre
RF Nelson Cruz
2B Ian Kinsler
LF David Murphy/RH hitter
C Yorvit Torrealba/Matt Treanor
1B Mitch Moreland





The Rangers have been talking about Beltre for awhile, Jeff Wilson writes.
[h3]Around the league[/h3]

• Orioles reliever Alfredo Simon is being sought in connection with a shooting; his parents have told a newspaper that he'll turn himself in today, writes Dan Connolly. The team is undoubtedly still gathering information, but unless he is quickly cleared of wrongdoing, the Orioles probably should begin to plan under the assumption that Simon won't be in place in 2011.

From Connolly's piece:
  • There has been no official comment from Orioles management, but Felipe Alou Jr., the club's Dominican Republic Academy coordinator, told The Baltimore Sun that he and another Orioles representative in the Dominican Republic had spoken with Simon at least twice by telephone since the incident became known.
    "What Alfredo said himself was that he was at the place it happened, a person was killed and one went to the hospital, but he had nothing to do with it," said Alou, who added that an attorney representing Simon had been in contact with the Dominican police.
• Last week, ESPN The Magazine released its NEXT edition, with Buster Posey as the cover story. As always in a piece like this, there are bits left over on the cutting room floor; here are a few graphs …
  • As a child, he cleaned his room, finished his homework right after school, worked to please his parents. He pitched at age 9 and when he reacted with frustration on the mound after something went wrong in a game, Demp Posey marched to the mound, stared into his son's eyes and told him that no matter what else happened, he never wanted to see him show his emotions like that on any playing field again. "I've never seen him do that again," said Demp Posey, Buster's father.
    Demp Posey's real name is Gerald Dempsey Posey II, and when he was a child he was called Buster. But somewhere along the way he graduated from that and was called Demp. After he married, he told his bride that if they had a son, he would be called Buster. Gerald Dempsey Posey was born, and immediately was named Buster. His maternal great-grandmother was horrified. "You can't call him that," she said. "That's a dog's name."

    Right around the time that Buster Posey was in the first grade, he wanted to change his name to something other than Buster. Traci Posey put off her son and told him to wait awhile before making such a monumental decision.

    A year or two later, Buster Posey again raised the subject: He didn't want to be Buster.

    "Well, that's your name," his mother said, a crossroad in history.

    We've had Buster Crabbe. Buster Keaton. Bustah Rhymes.

    But Buster Posey ... well, he will be the greatest Buster ever.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The price must be right for the Twins to keep Carl Pavano and Jim Thome, writes La Velle Neal.
2. Richard Griffin doesn't like the Jays' signing of Octavio Dotel.

3. Some Dodgers are performing well this winter.
[h3]Art of Catching[/h3]

Another tip from Brent Mayne on the art of catching:

"Watching a catcher do the same thing -- squat, catch ball, toss back -- for three hours is about exciting as watching paint dry. As much as anything, baseball is entertainment. Here's a suggestion on how you can do your part as a catcher to bring some showmanship, creativity, and energy to your position.

"In a non-blocking, non-throwing situation (less than two strikes, less than three balls, and nobody on base) mix up your squatting style.

"Here's just a few of the many benefits that come from using multiple stances.

1. It'll give your pitcher a different look (which is especially helpful if he's struggling to find the zone.)
2. Breaking the one-stance monotony is fun and will help keep you mentally engaged for the whole game.
3. It'll set you apart from the masses and help you get noticed.
4. Varying your stances will make you appear to have bounce and brings positive energy to your defense.

"Remember though, it's only for the non-blocking, non-throwing situations."
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]

Q: Your comment about [writers] not being the custodians of history is interesting. I think you down play the effect writers articles have on the judgment of the public. -- JNINIVAGGI

A: JNINIVAGGI: You're right. I don't think writers should be the gatekeepers of legacy, and endeavor to sanitize history. I think they should make judgments according to reflect the history.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Matt Thorton says Oney Guillen's tweets crossed a line. I'm sure Jerry Reinsdorf really is thrilled that this kind of stuff is dominating the organization's time.
It's win or go home time for Ozzie Guillen, writes Phil Rogers.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

• Jed Hoyer hopes that the depth of the San Diego lineup will make it better

• The time could be right to turn Matt Joyce loose, writes Roger Mooney.

• We learned the sad news last week that Bill Lajoie passed away, and Gene Myers wonders how different the Tigers' world would be if Lajoie had joined the team 19 years ago.

• The Reds should be better, writes John Fay.

• Scott Atchison is set up to relieve for the Red Sox, writes Scott Lauber.

• Yankees tickets are a hot topic, writes Neil Best.

• Brett Favre is right: It's time.

• The Commodores are rolling. This team has a chance to be really, really good.

• On Jan. 1, 2010, Amelia Lincoln, our youngest sister, was diagnosed with leukemia, an event that has forever shaped our family. And so it was with great joy that Amelia and her husband James Patterson hosted a large gathering of nieces and nephews and brothers and sisters this past weekend, and toasted in the New Year, her body free of cancer. Many thanks to all for the prayers and thoughts.

And today will be better than yesterday.

 
It was through travel that I got a chance to meet an Angels fan in Fargo, N.D., (a holdover from the Darin Erstad era), a Padres fan in Aberdeen, S.D., a Mariners fan in Nashville, Tenn., many Rays fans in Orlando, Fla., and a whole bunch of Red Sox and Phillies fans. And each of them posed a variation of the line made noteworthy in the series "The West Wing": "What's next?"

How about 37 possible storylines for the next 52 weeks, with many more to emerge.

1. Another major baseball makeover. We don't know exactly what form it will take, but significant change seems inevitable at this point, as Major League Baseball and the Players Association draw closer to the expiration of the current labor agreement at the end of this year. The playoff field probably will be expanded from eight teams to 10, and undoubtedly the issue of realignment will be raised -- and perhaps tabled. But baseball's basic format for 2011 will probably change for 2012.

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Alan Maglaque/US PresswireExpanding replay will be a big 2011 topic.

2. More instant replay. Commissioner Bud Selig has sounded more and more open to the idea of providing umpires with more expansive use of 21st century technology. At the very least, this will be a topic collectively bargained for the next labor agreement -- perhaps to extend to fair ball/foul ball calls and some safe and out calls on the bases. We'll see.

3. The Albert Pujols negotiations. The slugger has become to the Cardinals what Cal Ripken once meant to the Baltimore Orioles, and he is set to enter the last year of his contract in a year in which he turns 31. Inevitably, the question will be asked: If not the Cardinals, then what team would be willing to pay Pujols what he will seek, at a time when the big-money powers in the Bronx and Boston have already filled first base? The Cubs? The Dodgers? The Angels? Other teams presume that Pujols will remain in St. Louis, after an extended game of chicken.

4. The Phillies' fantastic four. Charlie Manuel has a nice problem: How should he align his rotation? The guess here is that out of deference to the pitcher who won the 2008 World Series for him, Cole Hamels will be placed in line behind Roy Halladay and ahead of Roy Oswalt; Cliff Lee, who will be getting the highest salary for any pitcher in any full season, could be lined up at No. 4. The possibilities of what they could accomplish, if they all stay healthy, could be extraordinary. "The problem they've created for themselves," said one longtime veteran recently, "is that only one result will satisfy the expectations -- they need to win the World Series. That's not going to be easy."

Twenty-eight managers not named Charlie Manuel -- or Bruce Bochy -- would love to have that kind of rotation quandary.

5. The Giants try to go back-to-back. What we saw from San Francisco -- from Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Wilson, etc. -- was some of the greatest World Series pitching in history. It would be easy to forget what an arduous summer journey the Giants took to reach late October. Lincecum seemed to learn a lot in 2010, Bumgarner has much room for growth and the Giants will have Buster Posey for the entire season. But can they find other solutions? Can Aubrey Huff thrive again? Can Miguel Tejada be effective at shortstop? How much of an impact will Brandon Belt have? We'll see.

6. The Dodgers' ownership situation. Presumably, Frank McCourt will either resolve his divorce case and move ahead as owner of the Dodgers, or else the financial conditions created by his split will force him to divest himself of a franchise that should be a crown jewel of the sport, rather than fodder for gossip pages. And McCourt presumably understands this hard reality by now: Not many of the other owners are prepared to lend a helping hand, as they did with the Rangers. They want McCourt separated from the boys of summer.

7. Boston's winter work is tested. Two years ago, the Yankees went into 2009 amid extraordinary pressure after spending about $420 million on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett -- and they won the title. Now the Red Sox are widely considered the team to beat in the AL after acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. They probably won't win unless they have better performances out of Josh Beckett and John Lackey.

8. The Felix Hernandez watch. This is a situation that currently lies dormant, because Hernandez -- who is just 24 years old -- is signed through the 2014 season, and nothing is really pushing the Seattle Mariners to trade the guy who would probably be the first pitcher taken by 30 general managers if you threw all the players into one giant fantasy draft. Hernandez earned a lot of respect for the way he pitched and battled in 2010 despite getting the kind of run support typical of an early 20th century team, and so long as Hernandez doesn't push the issue, it's hard to imagine Seattle seeking a satisfactory deal. But remember: Johan Santana eventually forced his way out of Minnesota; Halladay quietly pushed his way out of Toronto; and Zack Greinke's impatience with the Royals eventually led to his trade to Milwaukee. Those vultures you see circling the Mariners will be the executives of other teams waiting for any sign that King Felix wants to change thrones.

9. CC Sabathia's out clause. Sabathia has the contractual right to void the rest of his deal at the end of this season, and he has stated repeatedly that he has no intention of exercising this right. But remember, Sabathia -- who is two years younger than Lee -- could have extraordinary leverage if he remains healthy all season, because he could become a free agent again, and the Yankees could lose their ace, theoretically. Could Sabathia seek an extension? Will the Yankees tack on a year or two, or a little extra money per year? Or would Sabathia opt out of his deal and again become the most coveted free-agent pitcher?

10. Jose Reyes' status. On one hand, Reyes has long been seen as a foundation player by the Mets. On the other hand, he's had a lot of injuries in his career; more recently, he's played in 169 games in the past two years. He's entering the final year of his contract, and the Mets' new leadership must decide whether to invest another long-term deal in Reyes, who is 27 years old, or trade him before the July 31 deadline. The bet here is that the Mets will deal him.

11. Derek Jeter pursues 3,000 hits. He has 74 hits to go, which means he should get the big hit sometime around his 37th birthday in June.

12. Jim Thome pursues 600 homers. He's got 11 more to go, and as he draws near, it will be fascinating to see if the treatment of his chase will be different than what we saw last summer as Alex Rodriguez closed in on his 600th homer.

13. The Brewers' gamble. The Milwaukee front office has placed a big bet on 2011, the last season before Prince Fielder will become a free agent. Rival executives say that the Brewers traded their best prospects to get Zack Greinke and give new manager Ron Roenicke the kind of staff that can win a division. If the Brewers flounder early, it could get very ugly in Milwaukee.

14. Ozzie Guillen's job status. He's got a year left on his current contract, and while Guillen and White Sox GM Ken Williams have pledged to get along, 2010 ended with another Oney Guillen tweeting controversy. Whatever happens, it will play out like reality television because, as we have learned over and over, Ozzie does not hide his feelings.

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Jeff Griffith/US PresswireMost feel Matt Garza being dealt is a matter of time.

15. The Rays' window. Tampa Bay lost Crawford and Carlos Pena and is expected to lose Rafael Soriano as well, and so the diligent efforts of the team's front office to build another wave of talent good enough to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox will be tested. If the Rays don't play well early, then Matt Garza could become a major in-season trade chip.

16. The Heath Bell trade talks. The Padres intend to hang on to Bell into the 2011 season, to give the team a chance to win early, and to take advantage of what will probably be a heightened market for his services in July when they inevitably trade him. He was the sport's best reliever in 2010, allowing one homer in 70 innings and converting 47 of 50 saves; if he continues to pitch at that level, he'll be in the vortex of a major bidding war between the sport's biggest powers.

17. The Rangers' evolution. Texas reached the World Series for the first time and despite the fact Cliff Lee walked away, the Rangers will go into 2010 season as prohibitive favorites to win the AL West. That could depend largely on the development of young players like Derek Holland and Mitch Moreland.

18. The "year after" for Jose Bautista. At age 29, the longtime utility player dropped in your basic 54-homer, 124-RBI season, and soon the Blue Jays will have to decide whether they think he's a one-hit wonder, or whether they want him locked up to a long-term deal that will not be cheap.

19. The future of the Oakland Athletics. The NFL's investigation of the Jenn Sterger allegations took a long time, but by comparison, Major League Baseball's examination (i.e. stall tactic to wait for a suitable resolution) of the Oakland ballpark situation is the Hundred Years' War. The team has a chance to be good and contend this year, but at its core the franchise is rotting as it waits for some direction -- some hope -- from the commissioner's office.

20. The debate over Jayson Werth's value. This is a conversation that began as soon as word broke that the Nationals had agreed to a seven-year, $126 million deal with the outfielder, and the ongoing debate will be shaped by Washington's performance.

21. The AL Central scrum. In a winter in which the Twins have had to shift their payroll, the White Sox have added slugger Adam Dunn and the Tigers landed Victor Martinez, there's no clear leader. This should be a hell of a division race.

22. The Angels' crossroads. Two years ago, the Dodgers appeared to be in serious decline and the Angels appeared to be making major in-roads into becoming the dominant force of the L.A. area. But the Angels took a big step back in 2010, fired scouting director Eddie Bane, lost out on the Carl Crawford bidding and now owner Arte Moreno is expressing shock over the cost of free agents.

23. The House of Troy. The Rockies have locked up Troy Tulowitzki through the 22nd century, but what they'll need in 2011 is more of the first-half Ubaldo Jimenez, rather than the second-half Jimenez. Jimenez's ERA before the All-Star break was 2.20, and 3.80 after. The Rockies need Jimenez to continue refining his ability to repeat his delivery.

24. The Mike Stanton show. He is one of the most dynamic young power hitters baseball has had in years -- maybe good enough to inspire some season-ticket investors in the Marlins' new ballpark. To review: Before the All-Star break, Stanton posted a .711 OPS; after the break, he was at .884.

25. Jason Heyward, Year 2. To borrow a thread from Dustin Pedroia: Just stand back and watch the laser show, as Heyward continues to learn.

26. Stephen Strasburg's rehabilitation and Bryce Harper's climb through the minors. The two star youngsters will spend most of 2011 in minor league cities, but will be watched closely by the Nationals' big league eyes.

27. Grady Sizemore's recovery. The Indians center fielder once ranked among the game's biggest stars, but now, in the aftermath of microfracture surgery, nobody knows exactly what he will be going forward. Now 28 years old, Sizemore has played in 139 games over the past two years, and if he is to restore his trade value for an Indians organization that is trying to rebuild its pitching, he will need to play well early in 2011.

28. The Astros' ownership situation. Drayton McLane has put his team up for sale, and in the meantime, the club's payroll is locked down.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

29. A new direction in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have veered sharply under new GM Kevin Towers, unloading swing-and-miss sluggers like Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche and adding pitching. Will it be enough to contend in the NL West?

30. The Pirates' progress. The industry-wide perception is that the Pirates have made progress under general manager Neal Huntington and his staff. The team has more high-ceiling players than it has had in years. But eventually, the progress has to translate into more victories to satisfy the Pittsburgh ownership, as it faces a decision on whether to extend Huntington's contract. The Pirates went 57-105 last season.

31. Chipper Jones' future. He started to hit before blowing out a knee last summer. The future Hall of Famer, who has mused about retirement in recent years, will want to see progress in spring training.

32. The deep 2011 draft. Unlike last year's draft, the 2011 version is said to be loaded with high-impact players -- with Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon perhaps the favorite to be picked No. 1 overall. The Pirates have the first pick and the Rays own a huge number of early picks.

33. Mariano Rivera pursues Trevor Hoffman's saves record. Rivera's standing as the greatest closer in history is cemented, but the all-time saves record actually belongs to Hoffman, who has 601 for his career. Rivera has 559 and just signed a two-year deal; the 42-year-old Hoffman is said by executives to be looking for a chance to extend his career as a closer.

34. The Mike Quade job evaluation. The Cubs passed on their own Hall of Famer, Ryne Sandberg, to pick Quade. The reasons really don't matter, in the current-day media cycle; the bottom line is that if the Cubs win, Quade will be cast as a genius manager. And if they lose, then GM Jim Hendry is going to be second-guessed on call-in shows for not picking Sandberg.

35. The Royals' wave -- will it grow? The perception of rival front offices is that Kansas City has a chance to put together the kind of on-field talent that the Rays pieced together in 2006 and 2007, as prospects like Mike Moustakas begin to reach the big leagues. The Royals' attendance might suffer in a summer without Greinke, but the more important issue is the progress of the youngsters.

36. The Buck Showalter era, Year 2. The Orioles played better after Showalter took over as manager, but lest anyone think otherwise, know that, within the organization, there is a belief that Baltimore has a long, long way to go before contending with the big boys in the AL East.

37. What is Aroldis Chapman? At the very least, the rangy Cuban defector is a heck of a late-inning power arm who can dominate left-handed hitters. But the Reds didn't invest $30 million in him with the idea of sticking him in middle relief. The Reds' pitching staff has worked to reduce the rocking motion that Chapman has at the outset of his delivery, because they feel it affects his command. That work is expected to continue in spring training, and if the Reds can solve this and improve Chapman's fastball command, he could be an impact starter.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Phillies and Hamels will soon have to make a decision about his future, writes Matt Gelb.
2. The Dodgers dumped some executives the other day.

3. The Rays will decide whether to keep the versatile Elliot Johnson for their bench, writes Joe Smith.

4. Craig Kimbrel is poised and ready to step into the job of Braves closer, writes Carroll Rogers.

5. It's the time for bargain hunters, writes Nick Cafardo.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Jim Baumbach dissects the Hall of Fame ballot here. Jeff Bagwell is awaiting the results, writes Zachary Levine.
• Rafael Palmeiro's insistence that he didn't use steroids may be a roadblock for him to the Hall of Fame, writes Michael Schmidt. I would respectively and strongly disagree with something that Hall of Fame writer Ross Newhan says within this piece -- that the baseball scribes are the custodians of history. We are the writers of history, not the custodians of it; that is left to followers of baseball, who are the ultimate judges.

For example: No writer made Abraham Lincoln's place in history. His actions in a remarkable life, and his nation's responses to those actions, are what is central. What writers have generated about him reflects all of that.

And today will be better than yesterday.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
After the Yankees finished third in the Cliff Lee bidding, their response has been to wait -- to be patient, to rely on the group of stars already in place and bide their time for the next big deal. Nobody could have fit the Yankees more perfectly in the way that Lee could have.

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insider_u_beltre_200.jpg

Jerry Lai/US PresswireBeltre's presence would make Texas' left side outstanding.

And along the same lines, Lee was the perfectly shaped piece for the Rangers, too, who have a relatively young rotation. But unlike the Yankees, Texas is once again looking to be aggressive in the aftermath of the Lee decision. Our Enrique Rojas is reporting that Texas and Beltre are deep into discussions about a long-term contract, an idea that the Rangers began tinkering with during the winter meetings, when they kicked around the notion of signing Beltre and perhaps trading veteran Michael Young.

The Beltre negotiations have taken many twists and turns, and more are possible. The third baseman wanted to go back to Boston, but after the Red Sox balked at Scott Boras' demands, they traded for Adrian Gonzalez and committed themselves to moving Kevin Youkilis to third -- a lightning strike which stunned Beltre. Oakland probably has wanted Beltre more than any other team, but time and again, Beltre has turned down the Athletics' overtures, including a five-year, $64 million offer.

After the Angels lost out on Carl Crawford, the presumption within the industry was that Arte Moreno would invest his available millions and go after the third baseman, in spite of the past tension with Boras. But after the Angels made an offer to Beltre -- said by sources to be five years and $70 million -- and the third baseman didn't immediately accept, the team pulled the offer off the table.

The Rangers' interest in Beltre is 100 percent sincere, because he makes them a better team.

Advance scouts respected Young's efforts to play third base but thought he was average on his best days and much less than that on this worst. If the Rangers shift Young to a DH/utility type of role, using him at all infield positions occasionally to spell the regulars, and install Beltre at third base, they would immediately have the best left side of any infield in the majors, with shortstop Elvis Andrus and Beltre teamed together. The third baseman consistently ranks at or near the top of the defensive metrics for all players at his position, and is generally regarded by advance scouts to be the best fielding third baseman. Andrus' range is excellent, he's smart, and like Beltre, he has a reputation for caring a lot about what he does; at the World Series, Rangers manager Ron Washington talked about how Andrus is the most mature player in the way he views and processes the game, of anyone he has ever been around. (At the World Series, one member of the Rangers' organization told me that Andrus is, even at his very young age, the smartest baserunner that Texas has. "It's not even close," he said, meaning that more as an appreciation of Andrus' aptitude rather than an indictment of the other players).

Will the Angels try to jump into the mix late to prevent Beltre from going to their most daunting division rival? In the end, will Beltre decide to play for the Angels, whose ballpark is within a short ride of Beltre's Southern California home? Or has Moreno drawn a line in the sand, again, with an unusual negotiating style that is designed for quick strikes and to prevent the Angels' offers from being shopped -- a style that hasn't yielded any frontline free agents since Torii Hunter.

The bottom line to this is that if the Angels don't get Beltre and the Rangers do, the gap between the Angels and the Rangers will grow again, and Texas' everyday lineup -- which was good enough to reach the World Series last year -- will have a chance to be even better, looking something like this:

SS Andrus
DH Young
CF Josh Hamilton
3B Beltre
RF Nelson Cruz
2B Ian Kinsler
LF David Murphy/RH hitter
C Yorvit Torrealba/Matt Treanor
1B Mitch Moreland





The Rangers have been talking about Beltre for awhile, Jeff Wilson writes.
[h3]Around the league[/h3]

• Orioles reliever Alfredo Simon is being sought in connection with a shooting; his parents have told a newspaper that he'll turn himself in today, writes Dan Connolly. The team is undoubtedly still gathering information, but unless he is quickly cleared of wrongdoing, the Orioles probably should begin to plan under the assumption that Simon won't be in place in 2011.

From Connolly's piece:
  • There has been no official comment from Orioles management, but Felipe Alou Jr., the club's Dominican Republic Academy coordinator, told The Baltimore Sun that he and another Orioles representative in the Dominican Republic had spoken with Simon at least twice by telephone since the incident became known.
    "What Alfredo said himself was that he was at the place it happened, a person was killed and one went to the hospital, but he had nothing to do with it," said Alou, who added that an attorney representing Simon had been in contact with the Dominican police.
• Last week, ESPN The Magazine released its NEXT edition, with Buster Posey as the cover story. As always in a piece like this, there are bits left over on the cutting room floor; here are a few graphs …
  • As a child, he cleaned his room, finished his homework right after school, worked to please his parents. He pitched at age 9 and when he reacted with frustration on the mound after something went wrong in a game, Demp Posey marched to the mound, stared into his son's eyes and told him that no matter what else happened, he never wanted to see him show his emotions like that on any playing field again. "I've never seen him do that again," said Demp Posey, Buster's father.
    Demp Posey's real name is Gerald Dempsey Posey II, and when he was a child he was called Buster. But somewhere along the way he graduated from that and was called Demp. After he married, he told his bride that if they had a son, he would be called Buster. Gerald Dempsey Posey was born, and immediately was named Buster. His maternal great-grandmother was horrified. "You can't call him that," she said. "That's a dog's name."

    Right around the time that Buster Posey was in the first grade, he wanted to change his name to something other than Buster. Traci Posey put off her son and told him to wait awhile before making such a monumental decision.

    A year or two later, Buster Posey again raised the subject: He didn't want to be Buster.

    "Well, that's your name," his mother said, a crossroad in history.

    We've had Buster Crabbe. Buster Keaton. Bustah Rhymes.

    But Buster Posey ... well, he will be the greatest Buster ever.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The price must be right for the Twins to keep Carl Pavano and Jim Thome, writes La Velle Neal.
2. Richard Griffin doesn't like the Jays' signing of Octavio Dotel.

3. Some Dodgers are performing well this winter.
[h3]Art of Catching[/h3]

Another tip from Brent Mayne on the art of catching:

"Watching a catcher do the same thing -- squat, catch ball, toss back -- for three hours is about exciting as watching paint dry. As much as anything, baseball is entertainment. Here's a suggestion on how you can do your part as a catcher to bring some showmanship, creativity, and energy to your position.

"In a non-blocking, non-throwing situation (less than two strikes, less than three balls, and nobody on base) mix up your squatting style.

"Here's just a few of the many benefits that come from using multiple stances.

1. It'll give your pitcher a different look (which is especially helpful if he's struggling to find the zone.)
2. Breaking the one-stance monotony is fun and will help keep you mentally engaged for the whole game.
3. It'll set you apart from the masses and help you get noticed.
4. Varying your stances will make you appear to have bounce and brings positive energy to your defense.

"Remember though, it's only for the non-blocking, non-throwing situations."
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]

Q: Your comment about [writers] not being the custodians of history is interesting. I think you down play the effect writers articles have on the judgment of the public. -- JNINIVAGGI

A: JNINIVAGGI: You're right. I don't think writers should be the gatekeepers of legacy, and endeavor to sanitize history. I think they should make judgments according to reflect the history.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Matt Thorton says Oney Guillen's tweets crossed a line. I'm sure Jerry Reinsdorf really is thrilled that this kind of stuff is dominating the organization's time.
It's win or go home time for Ozzie Guillen, writes Phil Rogers.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

• Jed Hoyer hopes that the depth of the San Diego lineup will make it better

• The time could be right to turn Matt Joyce loose, writes Roger Mooney.

• We learned the sad news last week that Bill Lajoie passed away, and Gene Myers wonders how different the Tigers' world would be if Lajoie had joined the team 19 years ago.

• The Reds should be better, writes John Fay.

• Scott Atchison is set up to relieve for the Red Sox, writes Scott Lauber.

• Yankees tickets are a hot topic, writes Neil Best.

• Brett Favre is right: It's time.

• The Commodores are rolling. This team has a chance to be really, really good.

• On Jan. 1, 2010, Amelia Lincoln, our youngest sister, was diagnosed with leukemia, an event that has forever shaped our family. And so it was with great joy that Amelia and her husband James Patterson hosted a large gathering of nieces and nephews and brothers and sisters this past weekend, and toasted in the New Year, her body free of cancer. Many thanks to all for the prayers and thoughts.

And today will be better than yesterday.

 
It was through travel that I got a chance to meet an Angels fan in Fargo, N.D., (a holdover from the Darin Erstad era), a Padres fan in Aberdeen, S.D., a Mariners fan in Nashville, Tenn., many Rays fans in Orlando, Fla., and a whole bunch of Red Sox and Phillies fans. And each of them posed a variation of the line made noteworthy in the series "The West Wing": "What's next?"

How about 37 possible storylines for the next 52 weeks, with many more to emerge.

1. Another major baseball makeover. We don't know exactly what form it will take, but significant change seems inevitable at this point, as Major League Baseball and the Players Association draw closer to the expiration of the current labor agreement at the end of this year. The playoff field probably will be expanded from eight teams to 10, and undoubtedly the issue of realignment will be raised -- and perhaps tabled. But baseball's basic format for 2011 will probably change for 2012.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=5981057&story=5981047">http://sports.espn.go.com...981057&...idth=640,height=550,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=5981047#">[+] Enlarge
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Alan Maglaque/US PresswireExpanding replay will be a big 2011 topic.

2. More instant replay. Commissioner Bud Selig has sounded more and more open to the idea of providing umpires with more expansive use of 21st century technology. At the very least, this will be a topic collectively bargained for the next labor agreement -- perhaps to extend to fair ball/foul ball calls and some safe and out calls on the bases. We'll see.

3. The Albert Pujols negotiations. The slugger has become to the Cardinals what Cal Ripken once meant to the Baltimore Orioles, and he is set to enter the last year of his contract in a year in which he turns 31. Inevitably, the question will be asked: If not the Cardinals, then what team would be willing to pay Pujols what he will seek, at a time when the big-money powers in the Bronx and Boston have already filled first base? The Cubs? The Dodgers? The Angels? Other teams presume that Pujols will remain in St. Louis, after an extended game of chicken.

4. The Phillies' fantastic four. Charlie Manuel has a nice problem: How should he align his rotation? The guess here is that out of deference to the pitcher who won the 2008 World Series for him, Cole Hamels will be placed in line behind Roy Halladay and ahead of Roy Oswalt; Cliff Lee, who will be getting the highest salary for any pitcher in any full season, could be lined up at No. 4. The possibilities of what they could accomplish, if they all stay healthy, could be extraordinary. "The problem they've created for themselves," said one longtime veteran recently, "is that only one result will satisfy the expectations -- they need to win the World Series. That's not going to be easy."

Twenty-eight managers not named Charlie Manuel -- or Bruce Bochy -- would love to have that kind of rotation quandary.

5. The Giants try to go back-to-back. What we saw from San Francisco -- from Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Wilson, etc. -- was some of the greatest World Series pitching in history. It would be easy to forget what an arduous summer journey the Giants took to reach late October. Lincecum seemed to learn a lot in 2010, Bumgarner has much room for growth and the Giants will have Buster Posey for the entire season. But can they find other solutions? Can Aubrey Huff thrive again? Can Miguel Tejada be effective at shortstop? How much of an impact will Brandon Belt have? We'll see.

6. The Dodgers' ownership situation. Presumably, Frank McCourt will either resolve his divorce case and move ahead as owner of the Dodgers, or else the financial conditions created by his split will force him to divest himself of a franchise that should be a crown jewel of the sport, rather than fodder for gossip pages. And McCourt presumably understands this hard reality by now: Not many of the other owners are prepared to lend a helping hand, as they did with the Rangers. They want McCourt separated from the boys of summer.

7. Boston's winter work is tested. Two years ago, the Yankees went into 2009 amid extraordinary pressure after spending about $420 million on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett -- and they won the title. Now the Red Sox are widely considered the team to beat in the AL after acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. They probably won't win unless they have better performances out of Josh Beckett and John Lackey.

8. The Felix Hernandez watch. This is a situation that currently lies dormant, because Hernandez -- who is just 24 years old -- is signed through the 2014 season, and nothing is really pushing the Seattle Mariners to trade the guy who would probably be the first pitcher taken by 30 general managers if you threw all the players into one giant fantasy draft. Hernandez earned a lot of respect for the way he pitched and battled in 2010 despite getting the kind of run support typical of an early 20th century team, and so long as Hernandez doesn't push the issue, it's hard to imagine Seattle seeking a satisfactory deal. But remember: Johan Santana eventually forced his way out of Minnesota; Halladay quietly pushed his way out of Toronto; and Zack Greinke's impatience with the Royals eventually led to his trade to Milwaukee. Those vultures you see circling the Mariners will be the executives of other teams waiting for any sign that King Felix wants to change thrones.

9. CC Sabathia's out clause. Sabathia has the contractual right to void the rest of his deal at the end of this season, and he has stated repeatedly that he has no intention of exercising this right. But remember, Sabathia -- who is two years younger than Lee -- could have extraordinary leverage if he remains healthy all season, because he could become a free agent again, and the Yankees could lose their ace, theoretically. Could Sabathia seek an extension? Will the Yankees tack on a year or two, or a little extra money per year? Or would Sabathia opt out of his deal and again become the most coveted free-agent pitcher?

10. Jose Reyes' status. On one hand, Reyes has long been seen as a foundation player by the Mets. On the other hand, he's had a lot of injuries in his career; more recently, he's played in 169 games in the past two years. He's entering the final year of his contract, and the Mets' new leadership must decide whether to invest another long-term deal in Reyes, who is 27 years old, or trade him before the July 31 deadline. The bet here is that the Mets will deal him.

11. Derek Jeter pursues 3,000 hits. He has 74 hits to go, which means he should get the big hit sometime around his 37th birthday in June.

12. Jim Thome pursues 600 homers. He's got 11 more to go, and as he draws near, it will be fascinating to see if the treatment of his chase will be different than what we saw last summer as Alex Rodriguez closed in on his 600th homer.

13. The Brewers' gamble. The Milwaukee front office has placed a big bet on 2011, the last season before Prince Fielder will become a free agent. Rival executives say that the Brewers traded their best prospects to get Zack Greinke and give new manager Ron Roenicke the kind of staff that can win a division. If the Brewers flounder early, it could get very ugly in Milwaukee.

14. Ozzie Guillen's job status. He's got a year left on his current contract, and while Guillen and White Sox GM Ken Williams have pledged to get along, 2010 ended with another Oney Guillen tweeting controversy. Whatever happens, it will play out like reality television because, as we have learned over and over, Ozzie does not hide his feelings.

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Jeff Griffith/US PresswireMost feel Matt Garza being dealt is a matter of time.

15. The Rays' window. Tampa Bay lost Crawford and Carlos Pena and is expected to lose Rafael Soriano as well, and so the diligent efforts of the team's front office to build another wave of talent good enough to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox will be tested. If the Rays don't play well early, then Matt Garza could become a major in-season trade chip.

16. The Heath Bell trade talks. The Padres intend to hang on to Bell into the 2011 season, to give the team a chance to win early, and to take advantage of what will probably be a heightened market for his services in July when they inevitably trade him. He was the sport's best reliever in 2010, allowing one homer in 70 innings and converting 47 of 50 saves; if he continues to pitch at that level, he'll be in the vortex of a major bidding war between the sport's biggest powers.

17. The Rangers' evolution. Texas reached the World Series for the first time and despite the fact Cliff Lee walked away, the Rangers will go into 2010 season as prohibitive favorites to win the AL West. That could depend largely on the development of young players like Derek Holland and Mitch Moreland.

18. The "year after" for Jose Bautista. At age 29, the longtime utility player dropped in your basic 54-homer, 124-RBI season, and soon the Blue Jays will have to decide whether they think he's a one-hit wonder, or whether they want him locked up to a long-term deal that will not be cheap.

19. The future of the Oakland Athletics. The NFL's investigation of the Jenn Sterger allegations took a long time, but by comparison, Major League Baseball's examination (i.e. stall tactic to wait for a suitable resolution) of the Oakland ballpark situation is the Hundred Years' War. The team has a chance to be good and contend this year, but at its core the franchise is rotting as it waits for some direction -- some hope -- from the commissioner's office.

20. The debate over Jayson Werth's value. This is a conversation that began as soon as word broke that the Nationals had agreed to a seven-year, $126 million deal with the outfielder, and the ongoing debate will be shaped by Washington's performance.

21. The AL Central scrum. In a winter in which the Twins have had to shift their payroll, the White Sox have added slugger Adam Dunn and the Tigers landed Victor Martinez, there's no clear leader. This should be a hell of a division race.

22. The Angels' crossroads. Two years ago, the Dodgers appeared to be in serious decline and the Angels appeared to be making major in-roads into becoming the dominant force of the L.A. area. But the Angels took a big step back in 2010, fired scouting director Eddie Bane, lost out on the Carl Crawford bidding and now owner Arte Moreno is expressing shock over the cost of free agents.

23. The House of Troy. The Rockies have locked up Troy Tulowitzki through the 22nd century, but what they'll need in 2011 is more of the first-half Ubaldo Jimenez, rather than the second-half Jimenez. Jimenez's ERA before the All-Star break was 2.20, and 3.80 after. The Rockies need Jimenez to continue refining his ability to repeat his delivery.

24. The Mike Stanton show. He is one of the most dynamic young power hitters baseball has had in years -- maybe good enough to inspire some season-ticket investors in the Marlins' new ballpark. To review: Before the All-Star break, Stanton posted a .711 OPS; after the break, he was at .884.

25. Jason Heyward, Year 2. To borrow a thread from Dustin Pedroia: Just stand back and watch the laser show, as Heyward continues to learn.

26. Stephen Strasburg's rehabilitation and Bryce Harper's climb through the minors. The two star youngsters will spend most of 2011 in minor league cities, but will be watched closely by the Nationals' big league eyes.

27. Grady Sizemore's recovery. The Indians center fielder once ranked among the game's biggest stars, but now, in the aftermath of microfracture surgery, nobody knows exactly what he will be going forward. Now 28 years old, Sizemore has played in 139 games over the past two years, and if he is to restore his trade value for an Indians organization that is trying to rebuild its pitching, he will need to play well early in 2011.

28. The Astros' ownership situation. Drayton McLane has put his team up for sale, and in the meantime, the club's payroll is locked down.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

29. A new direction in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have veered sharply under new GM Kevin Towers, unloading swing-and-miss sluggers like Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche and adding pitching. Will it be enough to contend in the NL West?

30. The Pirates' progress. The industry-wide perception is that the Pirates have made progress under general manager Neal Huntington and his staff. The team has more high-ceiling players than it has had in years. But eventually, the progress has to translate into more victories to satisfy the Pittsburgh ownership, as it faces a decision on whether to extend Huntington's contract. The Pirates went 57-105 last season.

31. Chipper Jones' future. He started to hit before blowing out a knee last summer. The future Hall of Famer, who has mused about retirement in recent years, will want to see progress in spring training.

32. The deep 2011 draft. Unlike last year's draft, the 2011 version is said to be loaded with high-impact players -- with Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon perhaps the favorite to be picked No. 1 overall. The Pirates have the first pick and the Rays own a huge number of early picks.

33. Mariano Rivera pursues Trevor Hoffman's saves record. Rivera's standing as the greatest closer in history is cemented, but the all-time saves record actually belongs to Hoffman, who has 601 for his career. Rivera has 559 and just signed a two-year deal; the 42-year-old Hoffman is said by executives to be looking for a chance to extend his career as a closer.

34. The Mike Quade job evaluation. The Cubs passed on their own Hall of Famer, Ryne Sandberg, to pick Quade. The reasons really don't matter, in the current-day media cycle; the bottom line is that if the Cubs win, Quade will be cast as a genius manager. And if they lose, then GM Jim Hendry is going to be second-guessed on call-in shows for not picking Sandberg.

35. The Royals' wave -- will it grow? The perception of rival front offices is that Kansas City has a chance to put together the kind of on-field talent that the Rays pieced together in 2006 and 2007, as prospects like Mike Moustakas begin to reach the big leagues. The Royals' attendance might suffer in a summer without Greinke, but the more important issue is the progress of the youngsters.

36. The Buck Showalter era, Year 2. The Orioles played better after Showalter took over as manager, but lest anyone think otherwise, know that, within the organization, there is a belief that Baltimore has a long, long way to go before contending with the big boys in the AL East.

37. What is Aroldis Chapman? At the very least, the rangy Cuban defector is a heck of a late-inning power arm who can dominate left-handed hitters. But the Reds didn't invest $30 million in him with the idea of sticking him in middle relief. The Reds' pitching staff has worked to reduce the rocking motion that Chapman has at the outset of his delivery, because they feel it affects his command. That work is expected to continue in spring training, and if the Reds can solve this and improve Chapman's fastball command, he could be an impact starter.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Phillies and Hamels will soon have to make a decision about his future, writes Matt Gelb.
2. The Dodgers dumped some executives the other day.

3. The Rays will decide whether to keep the versatile Elliot Johnson for their bench, writes Joe Smith.

4. Craig Kimbrel is poised and ready to step into the job of Braves closer, writes Carroll Rogers.

5. It's the time for bargain hunters, writes Nick Cafardo.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Jim Baumbach dissects the Hall of Fame ballot here. Jeff Bagwell is awaiting the results, writes Zachary Levine.
• Rafael Palmeiro's insistence that he didn't use steroids may be a roadblock for him to the Hall of Fame, writes Michael Schmidt. I would respectively and strongly disagree with something that Hall of Fame writer Ross Newhan says within this piece -- that the baseball scribes are the custodians of history. We are the writers of history, not the custodians of it; that is left to followers of baseball, who are the ultimate judges.

For example: No writer made Abraham Lincoln's place in history. His actions in a remarkable life, and his nation's responses to those actions, are what is central. What writers have generated about him reflects all of that.

And today will be better than yesterday.
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