Official NBA OFF-SEASON Thread - 2011: Free Agency Dec. 9th

The re-making of a champion

Something is afoot with the Lakers, though no one is sure exactly what it is — or, more precisely, how big it will be. We know Phil Jackson is out, and that his successor, Mike Brown, will move away from the triangle offense (when Kobe Bryant felt like sticking to it) and toward a more traditional offense, heavy on pick-and-rolls. 

We know that Brown has hired European coaching legend Ettore Messina as something of a consultant, and we learned late Sunday that Brown is on the verge of finalizing his staff with a bunch of interesting hires. Among the most notable names is Tim Grgurich, one of the most-well-respected assistants in the league, from the Mavericks’ bench. 

On the personnel front, sources over the weekend suggested there might actually be something to the notion that the Lakers could flip Pau Gasol to the Timberwolves in a deal involving Kevin Love, Minnesota’s No. 2 draft pick (if the Lakers have their druthers) and other pieces necessary to make the trade work. Any deal of this magnitude is unlikely, even if it makes some theoretical sense for both teams. The Wolves would get one of the league’s best all-around players and a potential mentor for Ricky Rubio, while the Lakers would add a foundational young piece who rebounds like a mad man, works the pick-and-roll and can stretch the floor better than almost any other big man in the league. The much-rumored (but still theoretical) Dwight Howard trade talks are a different story, since acquiring Howard is a no-brainer for any team.

It’s hard to see how the Lakers could avoid a bit of regression with almost any deal that sends away Gasol but doesn’t bring back Howard. Gasol struggled in the playoffs and could not sustain the MVP form he flashed over the first 30 games of the season, but so much of Los Angeles’ success starts with all the good that comes — on both ends — from pairing two legit 7-footers. Love is not a legit 7-footer (6-10), and the Lakers’ defense — the key to their 2010 title — would suffer hugely from any Gasol/Love swap. 

Trade or no trade, it’s becoming clear now that the evolution of the Lakers will be the single biggest on-court storyline of the 2011-12 NBA season (fingers crossed!), supplanting the developmental process in Miami. The triangle has always made the Jackson-era Lakers an outlier, but they might be an even stranger scoring machine than most realize. The triangle generally eschews the pick-and-roll in favor of ball-movement, cutting and post-ups, so it’s no surprise that the Lakers got fewer shots out of the pick-and-roll than any team in the league last season, according to Synergy Sports. The pick-and-rolls the Lakers ran produced at a miserable rate; they ranked dead last in points per possession on pick-and-rolls in which the ball-handler finished the play. 

Also not shocking: Only one team (Orlando) finished a higher percentage of possessions via post-ups, and only five did so via cuts. That’s bread-and-butter triangle stuff. 

What might surprise all but Bryant’s most observant critics is that fact that the Lakers, for two seasons running, have been among the most isolation-heavy teams in the league, even while running a movement-based offense. Last season, the Lakers devoted nearly 15 percent of their possessions to isolation plays; only four teams beat that number, and Carmelo Anthony played for two of them. Bryant alone accounted for 52 percent of those isolation plays, and before you blame Kobe for butchering the triangle, you have to give him credit, since the Lakers were among the five most efficient isolation teams in the league. 

In the playoffs, though, this didn’t work as well. The Lakers leaned even more on isolation plays, with Bryant’s share of those plays jumping to 55 percent. And in the postseason, those plays produced at a rate that would have ranked below the league’s average. 

Taking this material and molding into an equally efficient, more traditional NBA offense is going to be a huge challenge. On the plus side, the triangle’s reliance on post play has laid the groundwork for Gasol/Bynum double-post sets, high-lows and other post-based plays you’ll see teams with two interior threats (like Memphis) run often. The transition may have already started in the postseason, when Andrew Bynum accounted for 37 percent of the Lakers’ post-up plays, up from 17 percent in the regular season, per Synergy. Bryant’s share of playoff post-ups actually dropped, as he worked more from the perimeter more due to either injury, fatigue or matchup issues. 

Turning to more pick-and-rolls will be a thornier change. Gasol and Bynum just haven’t done this in large doses for years now, and as long as Derek Fisher is doing the heavy lifting at point, Bryant is probably the team’s best pick-and-roll distributor. He is obviously talented enough (and unselfish enough, when in the mood) to play this role, but whether he can thrive in it is a fair question. Then there’s the fact that L.A. has never been a prolific three-point shooting team and lack the sorts of knockdown shooters that can thrive as release valves on pick-and-roll plays. The Cavaliers under Brown embraced the three as a weapon in this way, and the Lakers could use some outside shooting to stretch the floor. But from whom? 

Toss in the challenge of finding the right balance with Kobe’s isolations, and you start to appreciate what an enormous task Brown and his staff have here. And we haven’t even addressed the defensive end, where the Lakers’ implemented an entirely new pick-and-roll defense halfway through the season only to see it fall apart in an embarrassing, confused series of mistakes against the Mavericks. 

The Lakers aren’t exactly also-rans, and they are not quite the 1988 Celtics in terms of age and health issues, even if they are a bit older than they seem. This team destroyed the league after the All-Star break, and Dallas needed two pretty incredible late-game comebacks to take a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference semifinals before waxing L.A. in Game 4 — a blowout that has, rightfully, colored our perception of an otherwise competitive series. 

It is rare that we get to see a champion still so near its glory undergo the kind of stylistic evolution the Lakers will experience this season. It’s going to be fascinating, even if the Love and Howard rumors turn into nothing.

Link

I've re-affirmed my thoughts that a better PG and/or consistent shooting is more important to the Lakers for the upcoming season than Dwight Howard is.
Click to expand...
 
The re-making of a champion

Something is afoot with the Lakers, though no one is sure exactly what it is — or, more precisely, how big it will be. We know Phil Jackson is out, and that his successor, Mike Brown, will move away from the triangle offense (when Kobe Bryant felt like sticking to it) and toward a more traditional offense, heavy on pick-and-rolls. 

We know that Brown has hired European coaching legend Ettore Messina as something of a consultant, and we learned late Sunday that Brown is on the verge of finalizing his staff with a bunch of interesting hires. Among the most notable names is Tim Grgurich, one of the most-well-respected assistants in the league, from the Mavericks’ bench. 

On the personnel front, sources over the weekend suggested there might actually be something to the notion that the Lakers could flip Pau Gasol to the Timberwolves in a deal involving Kevin Love, Minnesota’s No. 2 draft pick (if the Lakers have their druthers) and other pieces necessary to make the trade work. Any deal of this magnitude is unlikely, even if it makes some theoretical sense for both teams. The Wolves would get one of the league’s best all-around players and a potential mentor for Ricky Rubio, while the Lakers would add a foundational young piece who rebounds like a mad man, works the pick-and-roll and can stretch the floor better than almost any other big man in the league. The much-rumored (but still theoretical) Dwight Howard trade talks are a different story, since acquiring Howard is a no-brainer for any team.

It’s hard to see how the Lakers could avoid a bit of regression with almost any deal that sends away Gasol but doesn’t bring back Howard. Gasol struggled in the playoffs and could not sustain the MVP form he flashed over the first 30 games of the season, but so much of Los Angeles’ success starts with all the good that comes — on both ends — from pairing two legit 7-footers. Love is not a legit 7-footer (6-10), and the Lakers’ defense — the key to their 2010 title — would suffer hugely from any Gasol/Love swap. 

Trade or no trade, it’s becoming clear now that the evolution of the Lakers will be the single biggest on-court storyline of the 2011-12 NBA season (fingers crossed!), supplanting the developmental process in Miami. The triangle has always made the Jackson-era Lakers an outlier, but they might be an even stranger scoring machine than most realize. The triangle generally eschews the pick-and-roll in favor of ball-movement, cutting and post-ups, so it’s no surprise that the Lakers got fewer shots out of the pick-and-roll than any team in the league last season, according to Synergy Sports. The pick-and-rolls the Lakers ran produced at a miserable rate; they ranked dead last in points per possession on pick-and-rolls in which the ball-handler finished the play. 

Also not shocking: Only one team (Orlando) finished a higher percentage of possessions via post-ups, and only five did so via cuts. That’s bread-and-butter triangle stuff. 

What might surprise all but Bryant’s most observant critics is that fact that the Lakers, for two seasons running, have been among the most isolation-heavy teams in the league, even while running a movement-based offense. Last season, the Lakers devoted nearly 15 percent of their possessions to isolation plays; only four teams beat that number, and Carmelo Anthony played for two of them. Bryant alone accounted for 52 percent of those isolation plays, and before you blame Kobe for butchering the triangle, you have to give him credit, since the Lakers were among the five most efficient isolation teams in the league. 

In the playoffs, though, this didn’t work as well. The Lakers leaned even more on isolation plays, with Bryant’s share of those plays jumping to 55 percent. And in the postseason, those plays produced at a rate that would have ranked below the league’s average. 

Taking this material and molding into an equally efficient, more traditional NBA offense is going to be a huge challenge. On the plus side, the triangle’s reliance on post play has laid the groundwork for Gasol/Bynum double-post sets, high-lows and other post-based plays you’ll see teams with two interior threats (like Memphis) run often. The transition may have already started in the postseason, when Andrew Bynum accounted for 37 percent of the Lakers’ post-up plays, up from 17 percent in the regular season, per Synergy. Bryant’s share of playoff post-ups actually dropped, as he worked more from the perimeter more due to either injury, fatigue or matchup issues. 

Turning to more pick-and-rolls will be a thornier change. Gasol and Bynum just haven’t done this in large doses for years now, and as long as Derek Fisher is doing the heavy lifting at point, Bryant is probably the team’s best pick-and-roll distributor. He is obviously talented enough (and unselfish enough, when in the mood) to play this role, but whether he can thrive in it is a fair question. Then there’s the fact that L.A. has never been a prolific three-point shooting team and lack the sorts of knockdown shooters that can thrive as release valves on pick-and-roll plays. The Cavaliers under Brown embraced the three as a weapon in this way, and the Lakers could use some outside shooting to stretch the floor. But from whom? 

Toss in the challenge of finding the right balance with Kobe’s isolations, and you start to appreciate what an enormous task Brown and his staff have here. And we haven’t even addressed the defensive end, where the Lakers’ implemented an entirely new pick-and-roll defense halfway through the season only to see it fall apart in an embarrassing, confused series of mistakes against the Mavericks. 

The Lakers aren’t exactly also-rans, and they are not quite the 1988 Celtics in terms of age and health issues, even if they are a bit older than they seem. This team destroyed the league after the All-Star break, and Dallas needed two pretty incredible late-game comebacks to take a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference semifinals before waxing L.A. in Game 4 — a blowout that has, rightfully, colored our perception of an otherwise competitive series. 

It is rare that we get to see a champion still so near its glory undergo the kind of stylistic evolution the Lakers will experience this season. It’s going to be fascinating, even if the Love and Howard rumors turn into nothing.

Link

I've re-affirmed my thoughts that a better PG and/or consistent shooting is more important to the Lakers for the upcoming season than Dwight Howard is.
Click to expand...
 
LA better get someone else at PG if they want to run more PnR's 
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Dayum, now both Carter and McGrady need to team up and ring chase together. Shoot, McGrady needs to just get out of the first round while not being on the inactive list. 
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Dayum, now both Carter and McGrady need to team up and ring chase together. Shoot, McGrady needs to just get out of the first round while not being on the inactive list. 
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Im still real curious to see how Rubio turns out with the Wolves.

As for VC... I just hope he's able to get on a winning team. He can still contribute to a contender.

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at Walls 1st pitch
 
Im still real curious to see how Rubio turns out with the Wolves.

As for VC... I just hope he's able to get on a winning team. He can still contribute to a contender.

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at Walls 1st pitch
 
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