Thunder-Grizzlies Preview: Optimism and the edge of reason
hey were gone. They were history. They were no longer part of the equation.
But now, they’re back.
Expectation. Pressure. Stress.
After the Thunder wiped their hands clean of the Nuggets, in terms of just taking another step, it was mission accomplished. Winning a playoff series meant this season could be seen as nothing but a complete success. Oklahoma City had progressed a little more. There was another jump in the development towards becoming a champions. The 55 wins and a division title were great and all, but with homecourt, winning a series was the expectation. Anything less would lead to a wave of disappointment.
And it all went according to plan. Of course there always was the hope for more before the postseason started, but I don’t think anyone would be upset with a second-round dismissal at the hands of the top-seeded Spurs.
But then a funny thing happened. The Grizzlies won. And as a result, all that stuff is going to come back.
The majority is already picking the Thunder. OKC is the favorite. Vegas says so, all the people that type and talk for a living say so. The Thunder have homecourt, have Kevin Durant and should have an edge. The nerves, they’re back again.
Here’s my feeling though: I think people, myself included, make too much of this stuff. I mean, let’s face it — it’s the Western Semifinals. There’s going to be pressure regardless of the opponent at this point. When something like the Western Conference Finals are on the horizon, if you’re not feel a bit of anxiety, then you’re not human.
Against the Nuggets, the Thunder faced plenty of it. And I almost think they relished it. At a few different points maybe they looked tight and nervous, but in the biggest moment with OKC down nine and facing a Game 6 in Denver, I think the Thunder did just fine. No doubt the expectation to win has returned. The Thunder’s the higher seed. They’ve got home court advantage. If all goes according to plan, they
should win.
Then again, so should’ve the Spurs. So really, at this point, I don’t even know what to think. I do know that I’m going to be terrified, excited, horrified, psyched and about a hundred other emotions leading up to tip-off before Game 1. This is a pretty awesome opportunity for the Thunder. And not just because they lucked out with getting homecourt, but because this team is capable of doing something special. But it all starts with Sunday.
Recent History
Throw out the previous four meetings. They don’t mean anything. That Thunder team that went 1-3 against Memphis isn’t this Thunder team. Not that there aren’t things to learn and take from those games, but in terms of just assuming this is a bad matchup for OKC because of those four games isn’t wise. Because the Thunder match up pretty well now.
Every game was close between the two teams with one game going to overtime. The average margin was just 1.5 points in Memphis’s favor.
The Starting Five
PG: Russell Westbrook does well against Mike Conley but don’t underestimate the Memphis point guard. He’s very good in the pick-and-roll and if you go under a screen, he’s entirely capable of knocking down a 3. This should be a good edge in the Thunder’s favor though. That is, if Westbrook can get his head clear and play loose.
SG: Interesting matchup here. Technically, Tony Allen is the starting 2-guard and of course Thabo is here for the Thunder. Both are on the floor primarily for their defense, but as we know, Allen tends to play awesome against OKC.
SF: The Grizzlies start Sam Young but Shane Battier gets heavy minutes here too. With the way Battier guards Kevin Durant, according to the numbers, I’d imagine we’ll see more Battier than Young. Either way, it’s not like KD doesn’t have a good edge here.
PF: If Zach Randolph doesn’t scare you, then you haven’t been paying attention. He’s been a bad, bad man this postseason. Against the Spurs though, they tried 71-year-old Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner on him primarily. Serge Ibaka has a little more length, strength, athleticism and size than those two.
C: I really think Kendrick Perkins will do well on Marc Gasol. You could make a case that Gasol has been better than his brother Pau this postseason, but Perk is just going to settle into the post and push on Gasol. The Grizzlies have a great frontline, but OKC matches well against it.
Benches
The Grizzlies have put together a bit of a rag-tag bunch of really quality bench guys. Darrell Arthur has been huge. Greivis Vasquez has been great in a backup point guard role. Of course Battier and then O.J. Mayo who’s given a good scoring and shooting punch off the bench. They’re a dangerous group. With James Harden, Eric Maynor, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed though, the Thunder seems to have a bit more reliable depth. Pretty close here though.
Coaches
Both coaches are new to this. Lionel Hollins doesn’t get enough credit for the job he’s done with these young Grizzlies, because it’s been pretty spectacular. Like Scott Brooks, he’s not the best in-game manager, but he’s a solid motivator and will have his guys focused and ready to play. Brooks did really well in the opening series though, pushing a number of right buttons in adjustments, rotations, minutes and other areas. No edge here for either necessarily, but it’ll be interesting to see if either coach cracks a bit.
Five Important Questions
1. How will Lionel Hollins play the matchups? Scott Brooks is definitely holding the cards here. OKC knows its rotation and there won’t be a lot of adjusting to compensate for Memphis. But Hollins has some decidin’ to do.
Mike Conley has had trouble with Russell Westbrook every time they’ve played. Tony Allen though is a terrific wing defender and has the size and lateral quickness to hang with Westbrook. So Hollins could go with Allen on Westbrook and stick Conley on Thabo Sefolosha who we know is a major offensive liability.
Where it gets interesting is when James Harden comes in. Obviously Conley can’t guard Harden, so Hollins would likely go back to Conley on Westbrook and Allen on Harden. Or O.J. Mayo who is Memphis’s Beard. So interesting, these matchups are.
2. Related: Shane Battier or Tony Allen on KD? The numbers I posted yesterday don’t lie:
KD actually averages 28.9 ppg per 36 with Allen on the floor as opposed to 21.2 with him on the bench.
Against Shane Battier though, Durant averaged 30.5 with Battier on the bench and 23.4 with him on the bench (per 36). Battier has always defended Durant well and I’d assume that’s who Lionel Hollins would go with on KD. (The main thing Battier does so well is defend KD without fouling. Durant gets just 3.8 free throws per 36 with Battier on the floor against 8.7 with him off.)
One thing to watch is how the officials handle Allen playing Durant really physical. Allen is a bulldog defender that likes to use his hands. KD will need to bust out a few more Randy Moss moves.
3. How does Russell Westbrook respond? No denying he wasn’t himself in Game 5. He did hit a big time 3 though in the fourth quarter and made smart decisions with the ball getting it to Durant. He just was a bit passive, timid and didn’t shoot well. He needs to snap out of that because he could potentially be the Thunder’s biggest edge in this series.
4. Can Serge Ibaka handle Z-Bo? “Handle
