***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[osh kosh bosh]

 

[RustyShackleford]

If Kamala wasn't VP Biden would have been gone already.

Imo it's only her weakness as a politician that has people hesitating.

If he had a popular and effective VP, Biden would be gone.

I think seems like a massive reach to me.

I think pride is keeping Biden in the race. Along with his family pushing him to stay in.

I don't think if Gretchen Whitmer were VP Biden would have any less pride, or Biden's family's opinion would change.

 

[IATT]

One thing I will say about Biden is that he’s self aware and enough of a public servant that he wouldn’t put his ego above what’s best for the country like RBG did. I still think he’s our best shot at winning the election but I trust him to make the best decision. The reality that isn’t getting enough play is that if Kamala weren’t VP the age thing would be less of a thing when running against Trump and the backdrop of crazy Supreme Court decisions that will only be remedied through getting to appoint justices in the next term. Republicans have been saying that Kamala will be President in two years into a second term and they are terrified.

Exactly.. these dudes have been mispronouncing her name plus openly attacking her as unqualified because they know racist people just assume all black people aren’t qualified

Their limited playbook is unfortunately well prepared for a black person AND a woman

 

[RustyShackleford]

You doing too much famb

Maybe go for a walk.

 

[atlsfinest]

You doing too much famb

Maybe go for a walk.

I do tend to believe that Biden was just under the weather and it was only a minor hiccup at the debate but at this point it doesn't matter. Perception is reality.

If people think he is too old and unfit to run then that is reality of the situation, regardless of if it is based on fact or not.

 

[noskey]

My wife finally found out what Project 2025 is and she's now making contingency plans for a relocation to Costa Rica if the worst happens since her workplace has a remote office there. No idea how we would make it work but at least she's aware of the stakes of the election.

 

[sneaksoy]

I think seems like a massive reach to me.

I think pride is keeping Biden in the race. Along with his family pushing him to stay in.

I don't think if Gretchen Whitmer were VP Biden would have any less pride, or Biden's family's opinion would change.

I agree with you that I don’t think Kamala’s political weakness is the only reason people are having consternation with Biden dropping out.

But, I don’t think it’s just his family/pride. Sadly, I do think people are irrationally opposed to Kamala (maybe it’s the right’s consistent attacks on her dating back to when she ran in the primary in 2019). But most polling I’ve seen shows Biden as the best opponent for Trump right now. Hell, idk that Biden really wants to put himself and his family through another term but I think he feels a duty to defeat trump (maybe that is some hubris but it seems to be backed by the data right now).

I also agree that Whitmer wouldn’t help him unlike Kamala, even though I think Gretch has a future. I’d be curious (strictly curious - I’m not necessarily advocating this) how people would be reacting if Pete for instance was the VP now/on the ticket.

 

[RustyShackleford]

I do tend to believe that Biden was just under the weather and it was only a minor hiccup at the debate but at this point it doesn't matter. Perception is reality.

If people think he is too old and unfit to run then that is reality of the situation, regardless of if it is based on fact or not.

Did you mean to quote someone else?

I do not know what this has to no with my post

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I think seems like a massive reach to me.

I think pride is keeping Biden in the race. Along with his family pushing him to stay in.

I don't think if Gretchen Whitmer were VP Biden would have any less pride, or Biden's family's opinion would change.

I would hope Biden wouldn't let pride mess with him like that but if you're right,

We gotta get ving to talk to Joe then

 

[aepps20]

The funny thing about the second scenario is that it fully encompasses Trump and the Republican Party and is why they are a stronger party when it comes to elections. Trump could’ve taken a deuce on stage and his support would be locked in. Our side is always looking for the next best thing or once in a generation talent to GOTV which is pathetic knowing what’s at stake. Most of the softening in Biden’s poll numbers is from our side. The most disgusting thing about it is that this is the week where the SC have Trump immunity for “official acts” that is the story this week. The debate was a week ago and people seem to not understand the stakes. A person in a coma is better than Trump. The SC issued an unprecedented ruling and we aren’t focused.

As to the polling this was a bad few weeks for Biden but I expect this to be a race about GOTV efforts. Things are still early but the dems need to step it up.

 

[IATT]

I do tend to believe that Biden was just under the weather and it was only a minor hiccup at the debate but at this point it doesn't matter. Perception is reality.

If people think he is too old and unfit to run then that is reality of the situation, regardless of if it is based on fact or not.

My problem with the 2 polls you posted, are the sources

again, obviously the debate was bad and the news cycle hasn’t been great

But I need to get that information from elsewhere before I’m legit moved given everything I know of those 2 organizations

 

[Zainjal26]

Idk if Biden gonna stay or go

All I know is Rfk jr deserves to be president
And have Aaron Rodgers as vp

And Alex jones as press secretary

 

[aepps20]

My problem with the 2 polls you posted, are the sources

again, obviously the debate was bad and the news cycle hasn’t been great

But I need to get that information from elsewhere before I’m legit moved given everything I know of those 2 organizations

I took a look at the cross tabs on those polls and I encourage others to do so as well. This race is truly in our hands. People love to say how right Hills was but we are in a real time moment where Joe is right about Trump and we know from experience what he is so the question is what are we going to do?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

The funny thing about the second scenario is that it fully encompasses Trump and the Republican Party and is why they are a stronger party when it comes to elections. Trump could’ve taken a deuce on stage and his support would be locked in. Our side is always looking for the next best thing or once in a generation talent to GOTV which is pathetic knowing what’s at stake.

the democratic party has a more heterogeneous coalition, it simply is always going to be the case that the coalition will be harder to hold together and easier to split.
you can complain about it if you want, but I think it's largely structural and outside of your control.

also

aren't you basically saying the Democratic party should emulate the GOP psychopathic commitment to one man?

The most disgusting thing about it is that this is the week where the SC have Trump immunity for “official acts” that is the story this week. The debate was a week ago and people seem to not understand the stakes. A person in a coma is better than Trump. The SC issued an unprecedented ruling and we aren’t focused.

people know what's at stake they are coming to different conclusions.
given the stakes some people think it's really important to replace biden. I don't think not understanding the stakes is whats leading Democrats to look for replacements.

but I expect this to be a race about GOTV efforts.

I think it's going to be about swing voters, given the Biden is losing,
probably need a candidate that can win those people back.

you can't do that if you can't run a real campaign.

 

[stuntman mike]

My wife finally found out what Project 2025 is and she's now making contingency plans for a relocation to Costa Rica if the worst happens since her workplace has a remote office there. No idea how we would make it work but at least she's aware of the stakes of the election.

my wife reacted similarly on monday. she looked into 2025 and asked where can we move to. she’s the most afraid of the supreme court.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

big gretch in the bullpen ready to go.

 

[Wargames]

honestly Democrats need to for once… put the nonsense aside and just vote for our collective betterment. We can fight it out in 2028.

There isn’t another answer. If he stepped down it would lead to inter party civil war.

 

[IATT]

I took a look at the cross tabs on those polls and I encourage others to do so as well. This race is truly in our hands. People love to say how right Hills was but we are in a real time moment where Joe is right about Trump and we know from experience what he is so the question is what are we going to do?

As we’re getting smarter in sports with the data and info that’s readily available, I wish people and especially those covering politcs gave more depth and have more convos based upon that depth and made practical applications

But we’re getting more and more first take were these “news” organizations are rushing to be first and report some shor simply get views

But I’d happily take Steve kornacki taking various polls and really looking at the numbers and breaking down the actual shifts we have seen in various election cycles involving the various candidates

But my biggest issue is the current state of journalism and journalists

They won’t have in-depth conversations because there are a lot of hurdles that need to be cleared and the trump side and they haven’t demonstrated an actual game plan to address those issues (the nimrata votes in the primaries, trump’s actual record, us actual seeing crowd sizes and the other BS, the lack of ground game in pivotal states, the actual results of elections in the last 8 years)

News organizations are invested in making people believe it’s going be a great game to try and drive ratings, so we continue to only hear about certain data and never get an actual sincere convo on those numbers and the practical applications

 

[osh kosh bosh]

As we’re getting smarter in sports with the data and info that’s readily available, I wish people and especially those covering politcs gave more depth and have more convos based upon that depth and made practical applications

But we’re getting more and more first take were these “news” organizations are rushing to be first and report some shor simply get views

But I’d happily take Steve kornacki taking various polls and really looking at the numbers and breaking down the actual shifts we have seen in various election cycles involving the various candidates

But my biggest issue is the current state of journalism and journalists

They won’t have in-depth conversations because there are a lot of hurdles that need to be cleared and the trump side and they haven’t demonstrated an actual game plan to address those issues (the nimrata votes in the primaries, trump’s actual record, us actual seeing crowd sizes and the other BS, the lack of ground game in pivotal states, the actual results of elections in the last 8 years)

News organizations are invested in making people believe it’s going be a great game to try and drive ratings, so we continue to only hear about certain data and never get an actual sincere convo on those numbers and the practical applications

yah this isn't true,
plenty of people you can go to who will get into the details and weeds on poling.

538
Nate Cohn
Nate Silver
Harry Enten. ect

538 has a pod where they go into all the details of their model, decisions they make, uncertainty ect.


most people don't consume that content because most people don't want that content.

but it's available, you can read it if you want.

 

[aepps20]

the democratic party has a more heterogeneous coalition, it simply is always going to be the case that the coalition will be harder to hold together and easier to split.
you can complain about it if you want, but I think it's largely structural and outside of your control.

also

aren't you basically saying the Democratic party should emulate the GOP psychopathic commitment to one man?


people know what's at stake they are coming to different conclusions.
given the stakes some people think it's really important to replace biden. I don't think not understanding the stakes is whats leading Democrats to look for replacements.



I think it's going to be about swing voters, given the Biden is losing,
probably need a candidate that can win those people back.

you can't do that if you can't run a real campaign.

Answers to your questions are in order

1. The idea that Republicans are this monolithic entity is simply put not true. They might not be as diverse as our coalition but they always focus on the bigger picture even if doing so will impact them negatively in some way. I’ve been a member of a White Evangelical church since 1998 and if you talk to them you find out that most have varied and diverse views (rich folks want more tax cuts, poor folks want more government assistance) but they’ve been focusing on the courts and voting your “conscience” no matter what aka their idea of the greater good.

2. The party should emulate a devotion and a commitment to playing the long game and the bigger picture. This election is about saving our democracy and the Supreme Court. Marches and protests after the fact won’t fix it. I don’t care if it’s Biden or someone else as long as we win but we need to win.

3. If this were a year ago or even two years ago, I would agree that people know the stakes but 4 months before an election after the Supreme Court said President’s have a presumption of immunity for “official acts” is insane. Not only are the logistics to switching candidates crazy but if it’s anyone but Kamala, Black folks especially Black women are staying home.

4. Every election is about GOTV efforts where swing voters are part of those efforts. I think we have to redouble our efforts on this front because polling assumes a certain electorate that GOTV efforts of done properly, change the calculus.

 

[aepps20]

big gretch in the bullpen ready to go.

pick her over Harris and watch the most reliable democratic voting block stay home.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Answers to your questions are in order

1. The idea that Republicans are this monolithic entity is simply put not true. They might not be as diverse as our coalition but they always focus on the bigger picture even if doing so will impact them negatively in some way. I’ve been a member of a White Evangelical church since 1998 and if you talk to them you find out that most have varied and diverse views (rich folks want more tax cuts, poor folks want more government assistance) but they’ve been focusing on the courts and voting your “conscience” no matter what aka their idea of the greater good.

i didn't say they were monolithic, I said Democrats are more heterogeneous. of course people have varied and diverse views. less diverse than democrats.
Being less diverse allows them to focus on the bigger picture, because there is more agreement on what the bigger picture is.

2. The party should emulate a devotion and a commitment to playing the long game and the bigger picture. This election is about saving our democracy and the Supreme Court. Marches and protests after the fact won’t fix it. I don’t care if it’s Biden or someone else as long as we win but we need to win.

sure i agree

3. If this were a year ago or even two years ago, I would agree that people know the stakes but 4 months before an election after the Supreme Court said President’s have a presumption of immunity for “official acts” is insane. Not only are the logistics to switching candidates crazy but if it’s anyone but Kamala, Black folks especially Black women are staying home.

what evidence do you have for this claim?

4. Every election is about GOTV efforts where swing voters are part of those efforts. I think we have to redouble our efforts on this front because polling assumes a certain electorate that GOTV efforts of done properly, change the calculus.

i think most elections are won and lost on swing voters.

 

[IATT]

yah this isn't true

I am talking about the the very large news organizations, outside of Fox News, that could very easily talk about politics like baseball but choose to follow first take and espn on the whole

I fully understand I can go places to find..

Which is why like espn, I don’t watch cnn or the majority of these shows

 

[osh kosh bosh]

pick her over Harris and watch the most reliable democratic voting block stay home.

what evidence do you have for this?

college educated black women are one of the more partisan and consistent voting blocs, i would think they are least likely to not vote or stay home.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I am talking about the the very large news organizations, outside of Fox News, that could very easily talk about politics like baseball but choose to follow first take and espn on the whole

I fully understand I can go places to find..

Which is why like espn, I don’t watch cnn or the majority of these shows

then your problem is with the audience, not the media.

networks show first take because people like to watch first take.
people do horse race argument style political show because that's what the audience wants to watch.