***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[cubanref]

I had no idea polymarket would trigger people this much.

I'll only post manifold market from now on. No Peter Thiel investment.

The only people who take polymarket seriously are degenerates on twitter

You been looking funny in the light though

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Why post any of them? They are all trash and based off John in Iowa thinks is going to happen and how much he's willing to bet on it.

the same reason to post a individual poll, a polling average, a prediction from a pundit, the results of a election model ect ect.

all data points that help forecast future outcomes.

 

[superantigen]

I'm a 100 pages back and trying to catch up on this thread, so sorry in advance for rehashing things that may have already been discussed . . .

Am I alone in thinking that this really ain't the flex she think it is? Shorty gave up the P after date #1 but thinks she's winning? Where they do dat at?


...

 

[atlsfinest]

I had no idea polymarket would trigger people this much.

I'll only post manifold market from now on. No Peter Thiel investment.

No one's triggered. Betting markets are interesting to look at but I wouldn't take much from them. If anything, they are best to track moment to moment movement on election day.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

No one's triggered. Betting markets are interesting to look at but I wouldn't take much from them. If anything, they are best to track moment to moment movement on election day.

the peter thiel conspiracists are losing their minds over it.
like i said I look at them as a single data point.

but once peter thiel name appears, some people go crazy.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

Defrauding all the other investors to operate a financial market that would bankrupted via arbitrage

As you keep arguing, it’s a market not a sports book. Since there are presumably non-exchange counterparties on each side of a trade, it’s unclear how an arb could bankrupt the exchange.

Unless the exchange was actually taking risk themselves. This would be an incredibly serious problem for all kinds of other reasons

As far as arbitrage…

Right now I can but DJT to win on Predictit for 48 cents. According to Polymarket, there’s open bids of 49.7 for the same contract. So in any other financial market, I’d go borrow, say, 4800, buy on the first, sell on the second, pay back my loan, and pocket $170. Classic arbitrage!

But I can’t because there’s no way to settle those trades across the two venues. The contracts aren’t actually interchangeable and this really eliminates a lot of classic arb strategies.

These aren’t real markets, so you need to be very careful about how you apply conventional wisdom about financial markets to them.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

No one's triggered. Betting markets are interesting to look at but I wouldn't take much from them. If anything, they are best to track moment to moment movement on election day.

To be fair, that’s exactly how he was using it. Looking at day over day movements within a single market.

This whole conversation is crazy…

 

[letsgetit22]

osh kosh bosh running rampant with no RustyShackleford to go paragraph for paragraph with him is a disruption to our NT ecosystem.

RustyShackleford

I am not even sure why people spend so much time engaging with him, he's not even from the US. Unless he's a citizen who can vote, who gives a damn what he thinks?

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

To be fair, that’s exactly how he was using it. Looking at day over day movements within a single market.

This whole conversation is crazy…

Ah, I missed “on Election Day” I’ll leave up the post to own the mistake

 

[osh kosh bosh]

As you keep arguing, it’s a market not a sports book. Since there are presumably non-exchange counterparties on each side of a trade, it’s unclear how an arb could bankrupt the exchange.

Unless the exchange was actually taking risk themselves. This would be an incredibly serious problem for all kinds of other reasons

As far as arbitrage…

Right now I can but DJT to win on Predictit for 48 cents. According to Polymarket, there’s open bids of 49.7 for the same contract. So in any other financial market, I’d go borrow, say, 4800, buy on the first, sell on the second, pay back my loan, and pocket $170. Classic arbitrage!

But I can’t because there’s no way to settle those trades across the two venues. The contracts aren’t actually interchangeable and this really eliminates a lot of classic arb strategies.

These aren’t real markets, so you need to be very careful about how you apply conventional wisdom about financial markets to them.

small differences it would be harder,
but if the idea is polymarket was biased in order to push public opinion in favour of trump.

presumably you'd see more than a couple points of difference between poly market and the other big prediction markets.
larger differences would be easier to exploit. no?



also the other major investor in polymarket is Vitalik Buterin the Ukrainian (big ukraine supporter), is he really going along with the plot to elect donald trump
via prediction markets that no one visits?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I am not even sure why people spend so much time engaging with him, he's not even from the US. Unless he's a citizen who can vote, who gives a damn what he thinks?

there are multiple non americans that post in this thread regularly.

you're just mad because i won't go along with goofy peter Thiel supervillain fan fiction.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

To be fair, that’s exactly how he was using it. Looking at day over day movements within a single market.

This whole conversation is crazy…

this point is overlooked, people are acting like i made insanely strong claims about prediction markets.

when what I actually did is post one graph before the debate and say;
"i don't' know if this makes me feel better or worse"

but peter thiels name gets brought up and people get on their qanon

 

[DripNick]

osh kosh bosh running rampant with no RustyShackleford to go paragraph for paragraph with him is a disruption to our NT ecosystem.

RustyShackleford

Where RustyShackleford at tho? Did he got meth'ed or just getting GOODT REST on The Island?

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

small differences it would be harder,
but if the idea is polymarket was biased in order to push public opinion in favour of trump.

presumably you'd see more than a couple points of difference between poly market and the other big prediction markets.
larger differences would be easier to exploit. no?

In a tight race, 3 or 4 points movement would both be newsworthy and also fail to cover the spreads (or financing).

also the other major investor in polymarket is Vitalik Buterin the Ukrainian (big ukraine supporter), is he really going along with the plot to elect donald trump
via prediction markets that no one visits?

I’m not arguing one way or another about Polymarket. As I said, I agreed with you that Thiel’s involvement isn’t definitive proof of shenanigans. (Although I think it involves more scrutiny than, say, Warren Buffet)

I’m arguing that your arbitrage argument isn’t sound. Mostly because I care about how people think about markets. It a, uh, teaching moment.

 

[dacomeup]

Because you're hand waving the details to make it seem less conspiratorial.

Again, for Peter Thiel to have done this it would require...

Defrauding all the other investors to operate a financial market that would bankrupted via arbitrage

All to make it so that Trump gets slightly better numbers on a website that has a tiny audience.

It doesn't make any sense. That's why you only talk about it in generalities.

It’s not even worth a response, man. You got it

 

[osh kosh bosh]

In a tight race, 3 or 4 points movement would both be newsworthy and also fail to cover the spreads (or financing).


I’m not arguing one way or another about Polymarket. As I said, I agreed with you that Thiel’s involvement isn’t definitive proof of shenanigans. (Although I think it involves more scrutiny than, say, Warren Buffet)

I’m arguing that your arbitrage argument isn’t sound. Mostly because I care about how people think about markets. It a, uh, teaching moment.

given how bad people are at thinking in probabilities
I don't think 3-4 points difference between prediction markets would be newsworthy at all.

but even i grant you all of this, i'm quite willing to defer to you on market dynamics.


i think the broader point still stands, even if you apply greater scrutiny. the elect donald trump via niche website fundamentally doesn't make sense.

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[letsgetit22]

there are multiple non americans that post in this thread regularly.

you're just mad because i won't go along with goofy peter Thiel supervillain fan fiction.

I don't give a damn if you agree with Peter Thiel or not. I just don't understand why people go back and forth with you for multiple pages in a row discussing US politics when you're not even a US citizen who can vote.

 

[dblplay1212]

the same reason to post a individual poll, a polling average, a prediction from a pundit, the results of a election model ect ect.

all data points that help forecast future outcomes.

When the demographic that uses a gambling site skews very hard one direction, it's absolutely pointless to look at it. It's not a random poll that's trying to get a broad range of people. Like I couldn't care less about an OAN poll.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I don't give a damn if you agree with Peter Thiel or not. I just don't understand why people go back and forth with you for multiple pages in a row discussing US politics when you're not even a US citizen who can vote.

prob for the same reason they do it with all the other non americans in this thread,

 

[Benny Hinn]

Where RustyShackleford at tho? Did he got meth'ed or just getting GOODT REST on The Island?

Still coping from the SB Halftime announcement

 

[ballinsam23]

That first debate in a few weeks will be the cherry on top.

Every move has been awful and they stayed the course instead of pivoting strategy/politicking.

The Vance pick, same bs speeches, same name calling, no real policy talk. This new Republican movement is not it at all and those who were on the fence this election are def noticing.

Knew she'd wash him.

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[yobyellav]

AOC was a bartender, right? She probably would’ve helped changed a flat too.

When trump said he saw it on tv, the VP should’ve said I saw jurrasic park on tv so I guess you should be on the look out for dinosaurs when you leave.


Can’t imagine Peter Thiel being involved in something that has to do with the presidential race and it being objective. It kinda flies in the face of what he’s had going on for a long time.