Official Political Discussion Thread

yobyellav · 2024-10-17T14:28:04-0400

05fordgt said:
Dang paywall!

Trump’s “Vastly Overpriced” $100,000 “Swiss Watch” Is Probably Made in China, Experts Say

The former president's new timepieces are the laughingstock of watch aficionados, who cast doubt on their true origins — "as ersatz as the man himself."

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Not cnn but this sounds about right. Go ahead get you one. Wearing mine right now…

osh kosh bosh · 2024-10-17T14:36:26-0400

pmatic said:
osh kosh bosh

uhm this is a description of how betting markets work? :lol:

its like saying win probability is "manipulated" because the probability changed dramatically.
thats the point, its supposed to change dramatically.

atlsfinest said:
I know exactly what osh kosh bosh is going to say ("These guys are betting real money unlike pollsters" and "These betting markets are more accurate than polls"). He and I just have different opinions on it.

I literally would never say anything like, this. :lol:

Where have I said they are more accurate than polls? its just another data point.

osh kosh bosh · 2024-10-17T14:38:31-0400

TooOlfForThisIsh said:
Let’s be clear that I have no particular love for political futures markets and that like many here, I am reflexively suspicious of Thiel…

This article is pretty light. The only new facts that they’ve established is that Polymarket is engaging influencers to amplify their brand. While I did not previously know that, I don’t find it particularly shocking. Many, many companies are doing the same; it’s a fairly standard marketing channel. And the authors haven’t really established that the purpose for this engagement is anything other than marketing.

I would agree that it’s problematic that these posts are being made without disclosures, but there’s not much there since the US ran away from regulating these markets and simply made them illegal (without really funding any enforcement of those laws).

I have no idea what the disclosure rules are in the countries that Polymarket legally operates in. Would have been nice if they’d done some journalism there.

The rest is just assumption and innuendo without any hard facts. Fairly ironic given their obsession with “real data”.

I’m not claiming that the political futures markets are safe from manipulation: they are not. But this article does very little to establish its fundamental thesis that there is deliberate manipulation occurring.

And just because it annoyed me… Polymarket market data is data. It's up to the analyst to decide how to interpret that data into information. I'd agree that theres been a lot of overreach in using this data, but that doesn't nullify the fact that it is data. it just points the finger at the people abusing it.

reading the article, there is literally no evidence of "manipulation". :lol:

but im guessing people just read the headline and rushed to the sneaker to dunk on their favorite canadian. :lol:

stuntman mike · 2024-10-17T14:42:03-0400

i don’t know if it was mentioned but people in the USA are not even supposed to be able to use polymarket. you need a VPN to access it.

sneaksoy · 2024-10-17T14:54:16-0400

yobyellav said:
Nobody thought those watches would be genuinely Swiss made.

I’d be willing to bet these watches won’t be made at all. If you’re throwing Trump $100k, it ain’t cause you want a watch with his name on it. These are just an extension of the legalized election grift.

Who is gonna buy one and actually sue trump when they never receive it?!

yobyellav · 2024-10-17T15:02:38-0400

sneaksoy said:
I’d be willing to bet these watches won’t be made at all. If you’re throwing Trump $100k, it ain’t cause you want a watch with his name on it. These are just an extension of the legalized election grift.

Who is gonna buy one and actually sue trump when they never receive it?!

Had the thought all the ******** he sells is just some form of money laundering a long time ago. Some foreign entity can shoot him 10 million under the guise of buying 100 of these and call it a day. Same for all the other scams he’s running.

a-friend · 2024-10-17T15:08:17-0400

“What’s wrong? Did someone grab you by the p#%*y?”
-Bautista

daruma · 2024-10-17T15:11:07-0400

05fordgt · 2024-10-17T15:21:07-0400

yobyellav said:
Trump’s “Vastly Overpriced” $100,000 “Swiss Watch” Is Probably Made in China, Experts Say

The former president's new timepieces are the laughingstock of watch aficionados, who cast doubt on their true origins — "as ersatz as the man himself."

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Not cnn but this sounds about right. Go ahead get you one. Wearing mine right now… View attachment 3298669

Thanks for the link. And NO, I ain't buying any of his crap! Only thing I would buy would be a ticket to see his eventual prison sentencing from a court house!

05fordgt · 2024-10-17T15:23:29-0400

sneaksoy said:
I’d be willing to bet these watches won’t be made at all. If you’re throwing Trump $100k, it ain’t cause you want a watch with his name on it. These are just an extension of the legalized election grift.

Who is gonna buy one and actually sue trump when they never receive it?!

Just like his $400 sneakers. Have they even been produced yet? I haven't seen even 1 picture of them from someone who ordered them (not counting that pair at Sneakercon that idiot paid 4-figures for). I don't believe they will be made either. Just another grift from the clueless rubes.

Belgium · 2024-10-17T15:30:52-0400

05fordgt said:
Just like his $400 sneakers. Have they even been produced yet? I haven't seen even 1 picture of them from someone who ordered them (not counting that pair at Sneakercon that idiot paid 4-figures for). I don't believe they will be made either. Just another grift from the clueless rubes.

The difference is that you can scam the average person, they're almost guaranteed to not sue someone of Trump's status due to the ratio of scam to legal fees. Scamming someone out of $100k is a different story. That's when you're dealing with real money (no offense but you don't need to be rich to buy $400 sneakers) and the funds to pursue legal action. No scam is too expensive to fail but there's a high risk of a lawsuit there.

yobyellav · 2024-10-17T15:31:41-0400

This guy grifting? You may have been misled, friend.

Cashflow · 2024-10-17T15:55:58-0400

Public Enemy · 2024-10-17T16:05:07-0400

chao7 · 2024-10-17T16:25:05-0400

My Georgia people, make sure to get out and vote

Air Champa · 2024-10-17T16:32:37-0400

I think Kamala did well in the Fox interview. I know people will say it's Fox what's the point, but pulling even 0.25 percent of that voter base can matter.

She's really at her best when combative and in attack mode.

dacomeup · 2024-10-17T16:33:11-0400

deep dive on who is shifting the Polymarket odds :lol:

TooOlfForThisIsh · 2024-10-17T16:48:26-0400

dacomeup said:
deep dive on who is shifting the Polymarket odds

Last 3 paragraphs are best:

Both times those people got BTFO. And if the point was to prop up the candidates, I don't think the price movements mattered a single iota to a single vote. This doesn't mean that the $25m man Fredi will get BTFO, only that one person barreling in with huge bets pushing the odds around doesn't necessarily equate with specialized knowledge. It could just be a fool.The odds are not reality, and the odds are probably not efficient. The odds will be wrong in predictable ways, but for most people including probably myself, the predictable way won't be apparent until the dust has settled. And then with the benefit of hindsight, it'll be forever obvious that of course [insert winner] was the smart bet because [insert reason]. Maybe Fredi has the answer already.

TooOlfForThisIsh · 2024-10-17T16:49:17-0400

stuntman mike said:
i don’t know if it was mentioned but people in the USA are not even supposed to be able to use polymarket. you need a VPN to access it.

They can view the market data, they just can’t place bets.