***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[IATT]

 

[pmatic]

 

[IATT]

 

[Cashflow]

 

[mplsdunk]

Religion is so nuts to me at least the people who talk like this.

 

[finessence]

This country has NEVER been together and was always corrupt. She sounded like an absolute clown

 

[mplsdunk]

Speaking of, these dudes sit outside planned parenthood all day twacked out of their minds like ‍

bruh your eyes are going every which way don’t you got something productive to do when you’re out here methin around like scrap copper

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

At the very least we are very aware that trump has broken multiple commandments of the 10 wannabe Christians should know

 

[1995]

I think the assassination attempt deeply affected Trump

Lost his spark after that

 

[pmatic]

 

[worldbeefreeg]

I think the assassination attempt deeply affected Trump

Lost his spark after that

I mean, the guy never relly wanted to be president in 2016 in the first place. Then 2020, the aftermath of the lawsuits, potential prison term, almost getting killed etc.

The man just wants to be on the golf course all day in a preferred reality.

 

[trappedintime]

 

[jshortt]

I mean, the guy never relly wanted to be president in 2016 in the first place. Then 2020, the aftermath of the lawsuits, potential prison term, almost getting killed etc.

The man just wants to be on the golf course all day in a preferred reality.

Certainly seems to be fueled by a combination of continuing the grift, his ego, and wanting to stay out of jail.

 

[dmbrhs]

 

[elpablo21]

Oh boy

 

[atlsfinest]

It's important to consider who uses these predictive markets. Polymarket requires users to have a crypto wallet and people who hold crypto tend to be right-leaning. To put things in perspective, If you look back to the 2022 midterm election, Polymarket bettors had Republicans winning 54 seats. In fact, going into election day 2022, Democrats controlling the Senate was at 21 cents (meaning Polymarket bettors thought Democrats only had around a 20% chance of retaining the Senate). Polymarket bettors had candidates like Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker as favorites going into election night.

There is the assumption baked in that Trump will outperform polling like he did in 2016 and 2020. We don't know if this is true or not. He may underperform like every other Republican has since Roe was overturned.

Also keep in mind that the users of these platforms don't have any secret information. They're just gamblers. For example there was a bet on whether Beyonce would show up to the Democratic National Convention. This was bet all the way up to 97 cents "Yes" (meaning that bettors thought there a 97% chance Beyoncé would show up) only for it to crash immediately when she didn't show up. All this is based off of an erroneous TMZ report. Personally, I don't take anything from these betting markets but that's just me.

 

[pmatic]

It's important to consider who uses these predictive markets. Polymarket requires users to have a crypto wallet and people who hold crypto tend to be right-leaning. To put things in perspective, If you look back to the 2022 midterm election, Polymarket bettors had Republicans winning 54 seats. In fact, going into election day 2022, Democrats controlling the Senate was at 21 cents (meaning Polymarket bettors thought Democrats only had around a 20% chance of retaining the Senate).

There is the assumption baked in that Trump will outperform polling like he did in 2016 and 2020. We don't know if this is true or not. He may underperform like every other Republican has since Roe was overturned.

Also keep in mind that the users of these platforms don't have any secret information. They're just gamblers. For example there was a bet on whether Beyonce would show up to the Democratic National Convention. This was bet all the way up to 97 cents "Yes" (meaning that bettors thought there a 97% chance Beyoncé would show up) only for it to crash immediately when she didn't show up. All this is based off of an erroneous TMZ report. Personally, I don't take anything from these betting markets but that's just me.

osh kosh bosh

 

[yobyellav]

Nobody thought those watches would be genuinely Swiss made.

 

[trappedintime]

Nobody thought those watches would be genuinely Swiss made.

No one thought they were coming with Trump boner honey though

 

[p0tat0 5alad]

This is a BIG problem for Democrats /s

 

[atlsfinest]

osh kosh bosh

I know exactly what osh kosh bosh is going to say ("These guys are betting real money unlike pollsters" and "These betting markets are more accurate than polls"). He and I just have different opinions on it.

I think they are cool aggregators of general consensus at any given point and on election Day it's interesting to watch the minute by minute fluctuations in the market as election results roll in but looking at these betting markets weeks or months out is pretty pointless.

If you look at the last couple of election cycles, these betting markets are only right once they get the information that everybody else gets. For weeks Polymarket bettors had Josh Shapiro as the heavy favorite to be the Democratic VP...until reports came out that Walz was going to be the pick. Like I said, they don't have any secret information.

If these betting markets had a track record of being correct months, or even weeks ahead of an election than I would be impressed with them. But that's just not the case. Nothing matters until they start counting the votes.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

ADVERTISEMENT​

Let’s be clear that I have no particular love for political futures markets and that like many here, I am reflexively suspicious of Thiel…

This article is pretty light. The only new facts that they’ve established is that Polymarket is engaging influencers to amplify their brand. While I did not previously know that, I don’t find it particularly shocking. Many, many companies are doing the same; it’s a fairly standard marketing channel. And the authors haven’t really established that the purpose for this engagement is anything other than marketing.

I would agree that it’s problematic that these posts are being made without disclosures, but there’s not much there since the US ran away from regulating these markets and simply made them illegal (without really funding any enforcement of those laws).

I have no idea what the disclosure rules are in the countries that Polymarket legally operates in. Would have been nice if they’d done some journalism there.

The rest is just assumption and innuendo without any hard facts. Fairly ironic given their obsession with “real data”.

I’m not claiming that the political futures markets are safe from manipulation: they are not. But this article does very little to establish its fundamental thesis that there is deliberate manipulation occurring.

And just because it annoyed me… Polymarket market data is data. It's up to the analyst to decide how to interpret that data into information. I'd agree that theres been a lot of overreach in using this data, but that doesn't nullify the fact that it is data. it just points the finger at the people abusing it.

 

[05fordgt]

This dude is a walking rutabaga!

 

[05fordgt]

Dang paywall!