***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[osh kosh bosh]

you either die a leftist hero or live long enough to get your takes labeled "contrarian".

 

[RustyShackleford]

Not looking good for Biden.

Yes, Trump might win. But these analyses are deeply flawed

That People's Pundit dude analysis is based on the assumption that we will have the same magnitude of polling error (that has not happened in back to back elections), in the same direction (four elections prior to 2016 the polling error was actually in favor of the Dem candidate), not only that from listening to dude he seems to be always giving Trump the full polling area in his favor, poll by-poll. That is a massive assumption and most reputable statisticians and data scientists would not make such a strong assumption. His argument is basically, "all the stars will align for Trump, so he has the advantage"

Secondly, that tweet by the blake dude is wild misleading. I have no idea where he got those polling errors from. I went to RCP 2016 website and by hand, I calculated the polling errors relative to the final outcome. Then I applied those polling errors to the current numbers.

It would give Biden winning (Arizona, Florida, Georgia Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania)

Trump would win (Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin)

Tied in North Carolina

Minnesota he didn't have the data.

Even if I give Trump NC, Minnesota and Nebraska #2, that still gives Biden a 320 to 218 win.

If I give Trump Florida and Georgia, Biden still wins.

I am not debating the fact Trump can still win, but their analysis is flawed.

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[Nereyda Vuelve Por Dios]

It drives me crazy that these **** reporters don’t challenge and correct this moron every time he speaks. How the **** y’all just let him say all this stupid ****?

that aint their job to be frank. Plus you know how much untrue, purposedly misleading **** that waste of space makes every day. All day?

you going to need a scholarfor every topic not Becuase of the complexity. But for the shear amount of **** they will have to correct.

 

[RustyShackleford]

you either die a leftist hero or live long enough to get your takes labeled "contrarian".

I don't think you are a contrarian. I generally agree with most of your political takes.

I just feel you suffer from something I heard Erza Klein talk about a while back. The "well actually" disease. Where even if you see a room of people you generally agree with, you gotta point out even the smallest area where they got it wrong. Plus you are mad flippant, which at times is hilarious, and other times frustrating.

You are basically a 1990s political analyst living in the 2020s. A Nigerian Paul Krugman.

If we lived in the Avengers Universe. And you were involved in a discussion about conservation and resource allocation being important, you would lead with "Thanos had a point when he was genociding 3.4 billion people...". Then act bewildered why the lady that saw a husband turn into dusk wants to take your head off; because you feel are not saying he should have killed those people, but we should deal with food waste and insecurity better. And I am standing behind you shaking my head, wondering why you couldn't just say that instead.

 

[Christian Pulisic]

MAGA 2020!

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I don't think you are a contrarian. I generally agree with most of your political takes.

I just feel you suffer from something I heard Erza Klein talk about a while back. The "well actually" disease. Where even if you see a room of people you generally agree with, you gotta point out even the smallest area where they got it wrong. Plus you are mad flippant, which at times is hilarious, and other times frustrating.

You are basically a 1990s political analysis living in the 2020s. A Nigerian Paul Krugman.

If we lived in the Avengers Universe. And you were involved in a discussion about conservation and resource allocation being important, you would lead with "Thanos had a point when he was genociding 3.4 billion people". Then act bewildered why the lady that saw a husband turn into dusk wants to take your head off; because you feel are not saying he should have killed those people, but we should deal with food waste and insecurity better. And I am standing behind you shaking my head, wonder why you couldn't just say that instead.

you gotta have **** disturbers like me around. keeps everyone sharp.

 

[Nike Jordan]

Holy **** I had no idea Roy Rogers still existed.

They're still around in Maryland and Virginia, but they're also located inside toll road plazas in NJ and PA.

I went to one last year. Their fried chicken was good.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Welp, WSJ is probably working on a Biden hit piece before to hit soon...

 

[Based Jesus]

15 days

 

[elpablo21]

Coming out the same day his healthcare plan drops?

 

[Christian Pulisic]

Hope y'all got backup plans in place for when Trump wins.

 

[RustyShackleford]

.

 

[had pants]

 

[mplsdunk]

He won’t “win”.

he can cheat and if he does hopefully they got a back up plan because they aren’t ready for the whole country to burn.

 

[AEA18]

Welp, WSJ is probably working on a Biden hit piece before to hit soon...

But I thought the Hunter laptop story was supposed to make Biden a "impotent candidate"?

 

[whywesteppin]

My analysis is this: people don't really care about scandals. They have their minds made up and use the scandals to justify their thinking.

People didn't like Hillary and the Comey bull**** was their excuse to vote for Trump. Almost nobody cared that much about the actual emails.

People have lived through 4 years of Trump. They're not really concerned with whether Hunter took some extra cash. Most people realize Trump's family is doing all that and worse. It's simply a matter of which candidate and which party they like better. No October surprise is going to matter at this point unless it's something earth-shattering. Trump already lost some capital by pushing out that NY Post story, so people are thinking "boy who cried wolf" more than "here comes an avalanche of revelations."

Plus my ballot is going in the mail before Trump is going to drop any more of his surprises.

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[whywesteppin]

dude thinks he's funny. it's so ****ing funny that 220k are dead, million unemployed, can't safely visit family, bunch of restaurants closing, and public health officials fear for their lives.

**** him. please vote.

 

[Nike Jordan]

 

[boris]

Welp, WSJ is probably working on a Biden hit piece before to hit soon...

NY Post and WSJ owned by the same company. Hm...

 

[shogun]

He won’t “win”.

he can cheat and if he does hopefully they got a back up plan because they aren’t ready for the whole country to burn.

he cheated last time and got to stay in office the whole term with no consequences. If china is trying to interfere at least they hate that fool.

 

[mplsdunk]

he cheated last time and got to stay in office the whole term with no consequences. If china is trying to interfere at least they hate that fool.

yeah, people are feeling different now. If racist *** America is willing to burn cities down for police murder imagine what they will do when a mini fascist steals an election for the second time.