:::[Official] San Francisco 49ers 2024 Season Thread [1-1 @Rams 9/22 1:25PST]:::

[letsgetit22]

What the chart shows me is that Trey is at least willing to take the risk downfield while Jimmy isn't. I am sure that at some point, that risk will produce great reward. I would also be interested in seeing how many of Jimmy's downfield passes were to Kittle. Obviously, Trey didn't have the luxury of having Kittle for his first official start.

 

[ace]

I’d like a sample size bigger than 6 quarters before I start drawing conclusions. Bet his stats would look totally different if his first start came against a winless Detroit instead of Arizona.

 

[DonRafa]

This chart is the counterargument to putting in Trey. Jimmy's comp% is 50% when throwing 15+ yards vs. Trey at 27%.

The issue is less about Jimmy not throwing it downfield at a higher clip but more so that we just don't have a true deep threat to take the lid off the opposing defense. The fact is, in 2019 the passing game was not up to snuff like the running game was until we traded for Emmanuel Sanders. The vertical passing game has been almost nonexistent since he left.

you do realize how quickly percentages change with numbers that low right? in 3 1/2 games versus treys 1 1/2 he got 3 more completions. 3 more completions in almost triple the playing time. 3 more than a guy who played his first 6 quarters in the nfl

 

[Brosizzlew30.23]

Stats are cool but Eye Test > Analytics all day for me.

Montana and Aikman the perfect examples of stats being misleading. Both had nowhere near the regular season yardage and TD passes that Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Favre, Prime Newton, Stafford, etc put up year in year out but we all know how incomparable Troy and Joe were in the playoffs when the games mattered most

 

[lightweight champion]

The fault in the chart is the definition of "air yards" in itself and doesn't count anything behind the line of scrimmage. To give you an idea of how faulty it is Kordell Stewart's "Miracle at Michigan" officially went down as a 64 yard TD pass to Michael Westbrook. Kordell threw the ball from his own 27 yard line and it was touched at Michigan's 1. His actual air yards from where he threw it to where it was first touched is 72 yards. Doug Flutie's miracle officially went down as a 48 yard TD caught at the goal line with 48 official air yards. Flutie threw it from his own 36. His actual air yards should be 64. The definition of air yards completely disregards dropback distance, as if air only exists from the line of scrimmage moving forward.

Garoppolo 15+ Actual Air Yards for 2021 - Completions Only

Spoiler

Lions - 25 yards to Deebo 12:46 remaining Q2
Lions - 21 yards to Deebo 4:32 remaining Q2
Lions - 23 yards to Sherfield :30 remaining Q2
Lions - 22 yards to Kittle 14:51 remaining Q3
Lions - 34 yards to Deebo 8:03 remaining Q3
Eagles - 25 yards to Deebo 8:40 remaining Q2
Eagles - 20 yards to Deebo :22 remaining Q2
Eagles - 16 yards to Deebo 14:56 remaining Q4
Packers - 23 yards to Aiyuk 8:41 remaining Q2
Packers - 19 yards to Kittle 6:09 remaining Q2
Packers - 18 yards to Sanu :32 remaining Q2
Packers - 24 yards to Aiyuk 8:35 remaining Q3
Packers - 17 yards to Aiyuk 7:41 remaining Q3
Packers - 26 yards to Sanu 11:39 remaining Q4
Packers - 16 yards to Juice 10:37 remaining Q4
Packers - 18 yards to Kittle 2:25 remaining Q4
Packers - 22 yards to Deebo 1:49 remaining Q4
Seahawks - 15 yards to Kittle 12:34 remaining Q1
Seahawks - 23 yards to Kittle 10:55 remaining Q1
Seahawks - 30 yards to Dwelley 9:35 remaining Q1
Seahawks - 19 yards to Jennings 1:37 remaining Q1
Seahawks - 25 yards to Deebo :52 remaining Q1
Seahawks - 15 yards to Deebo 10:52 remaining Q2

Trey Lance 15+ Actual Air Yards for 2021 - Completions Only

Spoiler

Seahawks - 30 yards to Deebo 2:17 remaining Q3
Seahawks - 20 yards to Deebo 2:53 remaining Q4
Cardinals - 16 yards to Juice 14:15 remaining Q1
Cardinals - 25 yards to Deebo :08 remaining Q1
Cardinals - 19 yards to Dwelley 9:52 remaining Q2
Cardinals - 16 yards to Sanu 9:09 remaining Q3
Cardinals - 21 yards to Aiyuk 4:28 remaining Q3
Cardinals - 19 yards to Dwelley 10:04 remaining Q4
Cardinals - 29 yards to Deebo 5:07 remaining Q4

 

[DonRafa]

 

[heatseeker23]

people just stirring the pot for clicks, attention, and money

sports outlets and 'analysts' know there is a QB controversy here, so all of the sudden we're seeing infographics of stats we've never heard of, or ridiculous cherry picking of stats to make wild claims to get clicks on facebook, twitter, reddit, etc.

"turn over worthy plays" to describe theoretical interceptions that didn't happen

ridiculous comparisons like "Lets count completions" on QB with 8,900 passing yards career vs a rookie with 48 total passing attempts and 354 passing yards total career, yeah, because that's a real apples-to-apples comparison

you could use that same "15+ yard completion" infographic to make an argument that Carr is much better than Trey. after all, they're both around 23% on 15+ yard attempts but Carr's completion rate on those 15+ yard passes is 151% greater than trey lance's.

Obviously it is because Carr's had 100's if not 1,000's more 15+ attempts passing attempts. this graphic absolutely RIDICULOUS. You have sample sizes ranging from 225 - 48 attempts. If there were a reasonable minimum number of attempts Trey wouldn't even be on the graphic

 

[3god]

Analytics are trash. Just need my eyes to tell me what’s what out there.

 

[req81]

I didnt realize that during a ‘bye’ week. You have to be away from the team facilities unless you are hurt. This explains Lance’s injury. He isnt hurt. They gonna be in there watching film with him

 

[22stylez]

This is such a dreadfully slow week. Thank god for giants baseball and warriors season starting next week. Best time to be a sports fan

 

[22stylez]

I didnt realize that during a ‘bye’ week. You have to be away from the team facilities unless you are hurt. This explains Lance’s injury. He isnt hurt. They gonna be in there watching film with him

There’s that quality red81 analysis I needed

 

[heatseeker23]

Need my giants to pull the W tonight

 

[ace]

I live in Atlanta so I’m rolling with the Braves no matter who wins that series.

 

[heatseeker23]

Trey is at the giants game with kittle and Dj Jones just saw them on the tv

hopefully that Means his sprain not so bad

 

[DonRafa]

damn they ditched jimmy?

 

[req81]

Trey is at the giants game with kittle and Dj Jones just saw them on the tv

hopefully that Means his sprain not so bad

There is no sprain

 

[DonRafa]

 

[moe200069]

wrangler jeans not cuttin the check to brett anymore??

 

[DonRafa]

copper fit sleeve must have made him greedy

 

[DonRafa]

 

[Brosizzlew30.23]

Looks like cardinals are on a bigger mission

 

[heatseeker23]

It’ll be tough to beat them

 

[moe200069]

mehh, ertz didn't do **** with All Pro Fred covering him earlier this season

 

[lightweight champion]

The Hurts to Ertz Connection didn't last very long.

 

[3god]

That’s a really nice pick up for Kyler. He’s gonna make Ertz look a lot better than any of those Eagles QBs have.